EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

[iamsheshu]

I advice you to stick onto your current employer if you don't have any issues. There are high chances that you might be current in few months. This is just my advice.

[iamsheshu]

Yes, my doc said the same. I'm hoping the same it's not required.

[veni001]

Friends,

I have a family emergency and not able to decide whether or not to travel to India. Seeking your inputs.

Filed my I-485 at TSC on 12/9/2011 - PD is 01/16/2008. I have not received the receipts yet, not sure how long it will take. I know after EAD/AP is approved it is safe to travel.

I dont have H1B visa stamp, but do have I-797 approval.

a) Can one travel when no receipts of I-485?
b) Can one travel after receiving just receipts, not EAD/AP?
c) Ofcouse H1B stamping has to be done without AP, but is it possible?
d) How long does it take for EAD/AP in my case??

Please help with information in this difficult time. I there are information pointers please share . Thanks for your help.

mygctracker,

a) Yes
b) Yes

In case of Both a & b you need to re-enter US using a valid non-immigrant VISA stamp, in your case H1B.

c)Yes
d) depends on Service Center, usually 60 to 90 days after receipt.

[dce.deepak]

I had my medicals done last week. The doc checked hep a and b as "not age appropriate". Guessing it's not required.

My doctor also checked "not age appropriate" for hep A and hep B and even should me a document for the same as a proof.

[mygctracker]

Veni,

Thanks for your answers. Could you please guide me with some CIS link where I can find more related information.

As today is sunday my employer is closed, I'll contact them tomorrow.

Thanks

mygctracker,

a) Yes
b) Yes

In case of Both a & b you need to re-enter US using a valid non-immigrant VISA stamp, in your case H1B.

c)Yes
d) depends on Service Center, usually 60 to 90 days after receipt.

[shashinehal]

I advice you to stick onto your current employer if you don't have any issues. There are high chances that you might be current in few months. This is just my advice.

Can i know for whose post this reply was for ?

[veni001]

Veni,

Thanks for your answers. Could you please guide me with some CIS link where I can find more related information.

As today is sunday my employer is closed, I'll contact them tomorrow.

Thanks

mygctracker,

Please refer to Federal Register Vol 72 No. 2011.

You can download PDF here (http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/FR-2007-11-01/pdf/FR-2007-11-01.pdf), refer to pages 61791-2

[helpful_leo]

Advance apologies if this is not the right place for this, but can somebody please clarify the below issues:

1/ My birth certificate from India was issued recently – more than 3 decades after my birth. Does the later date of execution of the birth certificate trigger an RFE? I was reading in some posts online from 2004 where some ppl got RFEs because of late execution and were asked to submit affidavits and secondary documentation of birth.
Do ppl here have more recent experience with this?

2/ My dad’s name is abbreviated in my BC. My lawyer asked for the BC have full names of both parents. Will this be an issue and should I have affidavits prepared in advance? If so, who writes the affidavit and who can notarize it in India? Any further details will be very helpful.

3/ My city of birth has different spellings in my passport (the anglicized version) and my BC (the recently changed native version). Does this require an explanation and / or affidavit? Who writes the affidavit?

4/ In my wife’s BC, the place of birth mentions the local municipality (and not the city) while her passport mentions the city. Will this require an explanation and / or affidavit explaining that the municipality is in the same city / district?

Thanks for reading and any help is greatly appreciated. We have waited 11 years for this and do not want any screw-ups.

[vizcard]

Advance apologies if this is not the right place for this, but can somebody please clarify the below issues:

1/ My birth certificate from India was issued recently – more than 3 decades after my birth. Does the later date of execution of the birth certificate trigger an RFE? I was reading in some posts online from 2004 where some ppl got RFEs because of late execution and were asked to submit affidavits and secondary documentation of birth.
Do ppl here have more recent experience with this?

2/ My dad’s name is abbreviated in my BC. My lawyer asked for the BC have full names of both parents. Will this be an issue and should I have affidavits prepared in advance? If so, who writes the affidavit and who can notarize it in India? Any further details will be very helpful.

3/ My city of birth has different spellings in my passport (the anglicized version) and my BC (the recently changed native version). Does this require an explanation and / or affidavit? Who writes the affidavit?

4/ In my wife’s BC, the place of birth mentions the local municipality (and not the city) while her passport mentions the city. Will this require an explanation and / or affidavit explaining that the municipality is in the same city / district?

Thanks for reading and any help is greatly appreciated. We have waited 11 years for this and do not want any screw-ups.

Check with your lawyer but I'll give you my best advice. In all cases you will need an affidavit. I would prepare 2 affidavits - one for you, the other for your wife. Include all the issues and explanations and have parents sign them. I got mine done on stamp paper and my parents and my wife's parents met at the courthouse and signed in the presence of a lawyer who then notarized it.

Also, this may apply to names on marriage certificates too. Check names on there as well. PM me if you want specifics on my case.

[helpful_leo]

Thanks v much vizcard for the quick response!
You are right. The same issue exists in the marriage certificates, which I had not paid attention to.

PMed you.

[mygctracker]

Veni,

I can't Thank you enough. Last night I read the PDF and mentally prepared to travel out of US without receipts.
Just now, I saw 6 Receipt notices in mail box.
Me & my wife are happy that we will travel now for family emergency in India.

It is strange, earlier I thought going to India is only after getting AP in hand, due to fear of 221g with visa stamping. But now, that fear is nullified due to unfortunate family loss.

ThankU.

mygctracker,

Please refer to Federal Register Vol 72 No. 2011.

You can download PDF here (http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/FR-2007-11-01/pdf/FR-2007-11-01.pdf), refer to pages 61791-2

[Jan2008]

Veni,

I can't Thank you enough. Last night I read the PDF and mentally prepared to travel out of US without receipts.
Just now, I saw 6 Receipt notices in mail box.
Me & my wife are happy that we will travel now for family emergency in India.

It is strange, earlier I thought going to India is only after getting AP in hand, due to fear of 221g with visa stamping. But now, that fear is nullified due to unfortunate family loss.

ThankU.

There is one that I want to add though which my lawyer had asked me a few times and that was- whether I was planning to travel out of country during the time my I-765 (EAD) and I-131 (AP) was being processed. According to him an individual whos application is in process should not travel (outside US) until they recieve their AP's or most importantly have done their Biometrics complete.

CIS will soon send you Biometrics notice and if you do not appear for your bio test on the specified day/ time/ location, they assume your case is abondoned. I may be wrong so guru's please correct me here. I, by no means want to be a pessimist here and I hope that God gives you courage in this tough time you and your family is going thru. I have been in a situation once before and I feel your pain. Just be sure to check all your options and be sure you are safe and sound from the processing stand point when you come back or even while you are travelling.

I will pray for you and your families safety and hope things will get fine soon. Take care

[mygctracker]

Jan2008,

Thanks for the caution. But from what I've read and learnt, it is not considered abandoned. I believe Gurus here will chime in to clearify.

I sent a paid question to LawBench, just to be sure.

Thanks



There is one that I want to add though which my lawyer had asked me a few times and that was- whether I was planning to travel out of country during the time my I-765 (EAD) and I-131 (AP) was being processed. According to him an individual whos application is in process should not travel (outside US) until they recieve their AP's or most importantly have done their Biometrics complete.

CIS will soon send you Biometrics notice and if you do not appear for your bio test on the specified day/ time/ location, they assume your case is abondoned. I may be wrong so guru's please correct me here. I, by no means want to be a pessimist here and I hope that God gives you courage in this tough time you and your family is going thru. I have been in a situation once before and I feel your pain. Just be sure to check all your options and be sure you are safe and sound from the processing stand point when you come back or even while you are travelling.

I will pray for you and your families safety and hope things will get fine soon. Take care

[nishant2200]

I believe Jan2008 is correct.

You should take an infopass appointment, or call customer service, and inform of your emergency situation, maybe they help you out. And you did the right thing by seeking paid legal consultation, let's see what lawyer says.


Jan2008,

Thanks for the caution. But from what I've read and learnt, it is not considered abandoned. I believe Gurus here will chime in to clearify.

I sent a paid question to LawBench, just to be sure.

Thanks

[TheTexan]

plays basketball with CO - lol...sorry that cracked me up...

[whereismygclost]

NSC ...No FP Notice Yet ..is this normal?

NSC || PD : 3 OCT 2007 || RD: 14-Nov-2011 || ND:25-Nov-2011 || FP Notice : ?? || EAD/AP : ??

I haven't yet received FP notice yet ..no EAD/AP ..is this normal from timeline perspective? When should I expect FP notice?

[SaturnRing]

Here is to hoping for a big jump till end of 2009, we are all waiting for so long and everybody deserves atleast EAD/AP , if not for GC.

[suninphx]

I had an informal discussion with my company immigration lawyer with respect to EB2-I.

- He claimed he is a good friend with CO and plays basketball with him. Since we are in the DC proximity, it is not far fetched to believe (although he might be exaggerating).
- He claimed that he had a few private meetings with CO.
- He claimed according to his "gut feeling", dates are going to move in Feb 12 bulletin and the jump will be big. He was less positive about a movement in March 12, but he said he gives a March 12 movement high likelihood.
- He did not elaborate the demand data picture at all.
- He said retrogression depends upon the numbers they receive in these big jumps and it is impossible to predict.

I can't reveal anyone's name or identity and you need to draw your own conclusions and do what is needed for your own good. Good luck to everyone.

Sports,

Thanks for sharing. Any positive information helps.

[narendarrao]

Thanks Sportsfan. Good to hear that they still have this in mind. The action date on this is 03/2012.

http://www.reginfo.gov/public/do/eAgendaViewRule?pubId=201104&RIN=1615-AB92

[nishant2200]

I would say that there are hints of plausibility in what you say. I sense honesty in it, meaning that you are truthfully relaying what was told to you.

Thanks for sharing.


I forgot to add one thing:

The lawyer said that the big movement was "intended" to give EADs rapidly to spouses who are currently on H4, as it will generate more employment. *Also*, he said the USCIS wants to raise as much revenues as possible and EB2-IC aggressive date movement gives them this chance.

I asked him about my pet theory of "2 years worth of demand since the EADs were given for 2 years", but he did not continue that line of discussion. He simply wrapped by saying that he "feels' a big jump is coming in Feb 12 bulletin.

If he really is a good friend of CO, then those are the motivations for the big movement - from the horse's mouth.

P.S. He also said HR 3012 has played 0% part in the movement. It was planned since the summer of 2011 when HR 3012 did not exist.

[imdeng]

Sportsfan - I hope your information is correct. It certainly *feels* correct - but then it could just be wishful thinking on our part. Two significant items in your post are: possibility of an aggressive movement in Feb VB and that the movements are independent of HR-3012. Both are good news.

BTW - you are perhaps opening your source to problems since this is an open forum and the information you provided can be used to identify your source.

On another note - the forum has become less-than-really-active these days. This forum has been a source of information and strength for me and I hope serious contributors will continue to be around and help keep the community vital.



I forgot to add one thing:

The lawyer said that the big movement was "intended" to give EADs rapidly to spouses who are currently on H4, as it will generate more employment. *Also*, he said the USCIS wants to raise as much revenues as possible and EB2-IC aggressive date movement gives them this chance.

I asked him about my pet theory of "2 years worth of demand since the EADs were given for 2 years", but he did not continue that line of discussion. He simply wrapped by saying that he "feels' a big jump is coming in Feb 12 bulletin.

If he really is a good friend of CO, then those are the motivations for the big movement - from the horse's mouth.

P.S. He also said HR 3012 has played 0% part in the movement. It was planned since the summer of 2011 when HR 3012 did not exist.

[Pdmar08]

I forgot to add one thing:

The lawyer said that the big movement was "intended" to give EADs rapidly to spouses who are currently on H4, as it will generate more employment. *Also*, he said the USCIS wants to raise as much revenues as possible and EB2-IC aggressive date movement gives them this chance.

I asked him about my pet theory of "2 years worth of demand since the EADs were given for 2 years", but he did not continue that line of discussion. He simply wrapped by saying that he "feels' a big jump is coming in Feb 12 bulletin.

If he really is a good friend of CO, then those are the motivations for the big movement - from the horse's mouth.

P.S. He also said HR 3012 has played 0% part in the movement. It was planned since the summer of 2011 when HR 3012 did not exist.

Guys,
dont you(all or most, not anyone in particular) feel that we are getting a little over optimistic? Past movements have good..no great. But really? What has changed? visa numbers are still the same. Yes demand destruction ...may be...to some extent.
But no one knows if the dates will stay put at 1/1/09 or move forward or retrogress.
We on this forum had one goal right? to understand the process and try to see how things will move and make life easy thru acceptance.
All this movement for revenue? really? then why not make it current for 2 months and retrogress. Revenues++ GC--
And how will this generate more employment?

I think people should be able to apply for EADs as soon as they have I140 and m not against furhter movement. But set your expectations right. If it moves ahead great if not..you already know why...all the previous posts on this forum are full of calculations.

Unless more visa numbers are made available or there is a solid drop in demand...more intake will only mean more wait time at the next stop. While most of us at this point want to file for AOS this forum will them become a place for discussing "how long till we get GC...we are waiting so long" OR "how do i switch jobs using AC21".

[nishant2200]

The point about CO's thoughts relayed through sportsfan33 was enabling H4 spouses to get EADs, and that would certainly make more people eligible for tech jobs for which employers have otherwise difficulty in sourcing local talent, or foreign talent because of restrictions on H1 and L1 visas. So hiring numbers would go up.

The strategy is to utilize low DD until USCIS catches up or QSP dries out a whole lot, to get more people in the system, and grant them EAD, it's not about giving GC. That's what I gather from sportsfan33 's posts



Guys,
dont you(all or most, not anyone in particular) feel that we are getting a little over optimistic? Past movements have good..no great. But really? What has changed? visa numbers are still the same. Yes demand destruction ...may be...to some extent.
But no one knows if the dates will stay put at 1/1/09 or move forward or retrogress.
We on this forum had one goal right? to understand the process and try to see how things will move and make life easy thru acceptance.
All this movement for revenue? really? then why not make it current for 2 months and retrogress. Revenues++ GC--
And how will this generate more employment?

I think people should be able to apply for EADs as soon as they have I140 and m not against furhter movement. But set your expectations right. If it moves ahead great if not..you already know why...all the previous posts on this forum are full of calculations.

Unless more visa numbers are made available or there is a solid drop in demand...more intake will only mean more wait time at the next stop. While most of us at this point want to file for AOS this forum will them become a place for discussing "how long till we get GC...we are waiting so long" OR "how do i switch jobs using AC21".

[suninphx]

I don't think my source really reads any forums. Not worried.

I thought about a long time before posting all of my information. Firstly, I never knew this guy was in the thick of the things. I came to know this today morning. Yes, it could be wishful thinking. Secondly, I understand a lot of folks are going to be very disappointed if this does not come true. But I still went ahead and took a chance, because I think there are parts of the information that are very useful to us.

If the bulletin does not progress, it may be due to the unexpected heavy demand. It has already progressed beyond anyone's wildest dreams.

The red flag in my chat with him is that he never talked about the demand picture. He did admit that very heavy demand could cause retrogression.

IMO- good you posted this. I am sure people around are matured enough not to 'set expectations' based on this(or any other lawyers) information. We have great set of numbers ...so we know what to expect. Anything above that we will take happily. In case dates dont move...we wait (which as it is we are doing...)...so I dont think anything wrong 'being optimistic'

PS: Luckily for many of us that CO is not moving dates purely based on numbers ....because if he did then in that case dates should not have moved beyond Feb 2008.

[suninphx]

The point about CO's thoughts relayed through sportsfan33 was enabling H4 spouses to get EADs, and that would certainly make more people eligible for tech jobs for which employers have otherwise difficulty in sourcing local talent, or foreign talent because of restrictions on H1 and L1 visas. So hiring numbers would go up.

The strategy is to utilize low DD until USCIS catches up or QSP dries out a whole lot, to get more people in the system, and grant them EAD, it's not about giving GC. That's what I gather from sportsfan33 's posts

"The strategy is to utilize low DD until USCIS catches up or QSP dries out a whole lot, to get more people in the system, and grant them EAD, it's not about giving GC"

I also think thats exactly what CO is doing.

[TheTexan]

Dude... let me make things clear since you seem to feel overly sensitive about this....

Please explain what your point is with regards to your statement... a lot of people are quite anxious and excited about...You imply that I do not understand the pain and suffering of the fellow gc seekers. This is not true since I am in the same boat.

Your second statement that Gurus here do a commendable job is correct however they do that on the basis of data, math/stats and deep understanding of the process. Under that background comes your statement that your lawyer plays b'ball with CO. So I could not help but draw cartoon in my mind about the 2 playing and discussing VB.

That the dates will move ahead significantly in feb bulletin is no secret because CO has stated that himself. He has also stated that after that bulletin, the movement will be slow or would stop. So I wonder what inside news has CO given your lawyer. You yourself mention that your lawyer "claims" to know CO and could be exaggerating and yet when I laughed you got all worked up.

Again, I did not intend to take potshots at you personally and hope to see a big movement in feb and all other bulletins.

[Reddy001]

Hi All,

Q and other gurus have replied back on the below question. Most of you have said that either we should get the immigrant stamp at consulate or POE wth EAD/AP or GC.

I checked with my company lawyer, he's saying that its not possible to get her back on GC or AP. He is saying that to get my wife H4 stamped and get here. And also he is saying that even if i go to India with my GC (and also my wife's GC) my wife cannot use the GC because she was not in US when 485 was apporved.

One big red alert that he raised was to get my wife on H4 and have her travel back to US as soon as possible before the I485 approval.

I appreciate your time on this. Any comment / suggestions ?


Hi,

We have filed 485 on Nov 1st 2011 and finger printing was done on 11/28/2011. We are waiting on approvals for EAD, 485 and AP documents. My wife (dependent..currently on H4 and need to get stamped) had to travel to India on family emergency on 12/2/2011.

Question is:
If we recieve EAD and AP (approvals & cards) when my wife is in India and if i travel to India and get wife my along back to US, can my wife use the EAD and AP? or She should have valid H4?

Just confused?

Thanks all for you help.

[TeddyKoochu]

The point about CO's thoughts relayed through sportsfan33 was enabling H4 spouses to get EADs, and that would certainly make more people eligible for tech jobs for which employers have otherwise difficulty in sourcing local talent, or foreign talent because of restrictions on H1 and L1 visas. So hiring numbers would go up.

The strategy is to utilize low DD until USCIS catches up or QSP dries out a whole lot, to get more people in the system, and grant them EAD, it's not about giving GC. That's what I gather from sportsfan33 's posts

@sportsfan33 thanks for posting, irrespective of whether the news turns out to be true or not its very nice of you to have shared the information with everyone, I sincerely hope that its true and more and more people get the temporary relief. People are all intelligent enough to make their judgments. I believe that the current movement that has happened thus far is in far excess of the SOFAD that we could expect this year even by the most liberal standards and the most liberal buffers possible. So finally if CO is using procedural means like low demand data etc as @Nishant describes its still very good for all EB2 I/C and no laws are really being broken as only intake is being done no GC's are really being granted.

[gkjppp]

That's right Teddy.

The 2007 bus helped thousands of people. It seems to be CO's intention to have a mini-bus that helps some thousands of EB2-IC folks more.

I was believing this movement was related to HR 3012 or high DD. It seems to be *none of that*. High DD is surely playing a part in pushing the envelop further though.

If I had to make educated guesses, this means that CO will rather retrogress than not push the dates enough. So moral of the story: dates will be pushed far in future (not a function of HR 3012 and demand), and they will eventually retrogress (function of both demand and HR 3012).

How far 6 Months/ 1 year or till apr 1st 2010. Feb 2012 is all set to stretch further. Great info.

[sdesh005]

I forgot to add one thing:

The lawyer said that the big movement was "intended" to give EADs rapidly to spouses who are currently on H4, as it will generate more employment. *Also*, he said the USCIS wants to raise as much revenues as possible and EB2-IC aggressive date movement gives them this chance.

I asked him about my pet theory of "2 years worth of demand since the EADs were given for 2 years", but he did not continue that line of discussion. He simply wrapped by saying that he "feels' a big jump is coming in Feb 12 bulletin.

If he really is a good friend of CO, then those are the motivations for the big movement - from the horse's mouth.

P.S. He also said HR 3012 has played 0% part in the movement. It was planned since the summer of 2011 when HR 3012 did not exist.

If what your lawyer said is really for real, that would be awesome! I think it's a very noble thought to allow more and more people to apply for EAD/AP so that they are not stuck on H1-B forever and at least get some flexibility to pursue other options! I just hope March does not bring in retrogression...!

[bieber]

I don't see why there will not be huge movement in Feb bulletin, If at all there is a movement I think it will be just like last bulletin.

While big movement is very helpful to many (including myself), people who will be on the edge at the end of movement will need to wait longer periods. If the dates move till Jan1, 2010 then people with early 2010 PDs will have entirely different situaion from late 2009 because that intake will last for more than 2 years

[codesmith]

Seems like you are the sensitive one.
--

This is my last post to you. I do not need to read or respond to your pompous nonsense again.

Hi Sports, that's great news you shared with all the details and I can understand your thought process before sharing it.. It must be little hard.
Please do not get disturbed.. I really don't understand why we see some of us getting mad instead of appreciating and having this all in a polite manner.
Thanks again for sharing.

[suninphx]

I don't see why there will not be huge movement in Feb bulletin, If at all there is a movement I think it will be just like last bulletin.

While big movement is very helpful to many (including myself), people who will be on the edge at the end of movement will need to wait longer periods. If the dates move till Jan1, 2010 then people with early 2010 PDs will have entirely different situaion from late 2009 because that intake will last for more than 2 years

If DD is indeed significant then they may want to do same cycle next year too (assuming they are comfortable with 2 year inventory theory :) ).

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy. Thanks for summing it up.

Let me add my 2c worth and see if we agree.

a) Transformation Factor (TF)

The sum of factors that convert the raw PERM figures to the maximum number of I-485 applications that might be expected.

The factors taken into account are:

i) EB2%
ii) Approval rate at I-140
iii) Dependent ratio.

We all use slightly different figures. Currently, I use 65%, 80% & 2.05 which converts 1 PERM to 1.066 I-485.

b) Demand Destruction (DD)

Factors which might lower the numbers of I-485 calculated by the Transformation Factor.

These might be:

i) Multiple PERM
ii) Abandonment
etc.

In the tables I produced (what seems an age ago) I used 15% for PD2007 and 10% for PD2008. Those figures now seem somewhat optimistic, although I was also using an EB2% of 60%, which makes them slightly higher. The OR (see below) gave factors of 0.84 and 0.89 respectively.

c) Overall Ratio (OR)

The cumulative effect of Transformation Factor and Demand Destruction expressed as number of I-485 resulting per approved PERM.

Currently, I am using figures for DD of 40% for PD2007 and 35% for PD2008 to look at the low end of possible I-485 figures.

Based on the initial PERM numbers, this gives 1 PERM converts to 0.64 I-485 for PD 2007 and 0.69 I-485 for PD2008.

Even with those ratios, I get 40k potential EB2-IC I-485 for VB movement to date, including 250 Porting per month to the date the cases become ready for adjudication (2k total) and 1.5k cases from FY2011.

For an OR of about 0.8, which I have seen mentioned, the DD would need to be 25% for the TF factors I am using.


Spec, Thanks for your post & terminology, it looks very good. I would start using the terminology from your post henceforth.
So my Transformation Factor - .75 * .80 * 2.125 = 1.275
I believe everyone should assume their own factors on this aspect. Most people do agree with a 20% denial rate of I40. I like to go with a high FB factor because of the unique things about I/C, Pedro had once put this in a very humorous way that most parents would not allow their children i.e. us to not be married by this age and 1 in 8 definitely have non US born kinds. Those with no – US born kids are typically IT consultants who normally come from India after having 5+ years of experience. The reason for using higher rate of EB2 as .75 is that post 2007 people atleast from I/C realized that EB3 is a hopeless path and there are silent conversions which we would never be able to track by Eb3 inventory reductions.
I kind of went the other way to find demand destruction by assuming the OR as 1, OR = 1 is validated by the first half of 2007. This way 1/1.275 = .78. So implicitly the demand destruction by this logic would be ~ 22%. This comes out to be higher than your assumed demand destruction figures because your transformation factor is lower.
Now the real thing is that time post 2007 was bad and so even in the best case the OR could come down to 0.8. With 16.5 months of forward movement the approximate intake would be 16.5 * 2200 * .8 = 29.5K. For sure 8.5K as in the demand data and in fact probably 1-1.5K more has already been allocated to EB2 I/C already, even this month there are very steady approvals for Eb2-I on Trackitt. So clearly we are close to the 40K SOFAD line this year by adding intakes + consumption, this is under the assumption that the OR is .8 if it’s any higher then definitely the effective intake is much more. By the OR of .8 the DD comes out to be 1- .8/1.275 = .38 or 38%.

[suninphx]

Spec, Thanks for your post & terminology, it looks very good. I would start using the terminology from your post henceforth.
So my Transformation Factor - .75 * .80 * 2.125 = 1.275
I believe everyone should assume their own factors on this aspect. Most people do agree with a 20% denial rate of I40. I like to go with a high FB factor because of the unique things about I/C, Pedro had once put this in a very humorous way that most parents would not allow their children i.e. us to not be married by this age and 1 in 8 definitely have non US born kinds. Those with no – US born kids are typically IT consultants who normally come from India after having 5+ years of experience. The reason for using higher rate of EB2 as .75 is that post 2007 people atleast from I/C realized that EB3 is a hopeless path and there are silent conversions which we would never be able to track by Eb3 inventory reductions.
I kind of went the other way to find demand destruction by assuming the OR as 1, OR = 1 is validated by the first half of 2007. This way 1/1.275 = .78. So implicitly the demand destruction by this logic would be ~ 22%. This comes out to be higher than your assumed demand destruction figures because your transformation factor is lower.
Now the real thing is that time post 2007 was bad and so even in the best case the OR could come down to 0.8. With 16.5 months of forward movement the approximate intake would be 16.5 * 2200 * .8 = 29.5K. For sure 8.5K as in the demand data and in fact probably 1-1.5K more has already been allocated to EB2 I/C already, even this month there are very steady approvals for Eb2-I on Trackitt. So clearly we are close to the 40K SOFAD line this year by adding intakes + consumption, this is under the assumption that the OR is .8 if it’s any higher then definitely the effective intake is much more. By the OR of .8 the DD comes out to be 1- .8/1.275 = .38 or 38%.

Teddy, thanks for these numbers.

So your 'GC in hand' date predictions has not changed much yet .With SOFAD of 25k your projection is still Dec 2007- Mid Jan 2008 right ?

[self.coach]

I forgot to add one thing:

The lawyer said that the big movement was "intended" to give EADs rapidly to spouses who are currently on H4, as it will generate more employment.

How does giving EADs to H4 spouses generate more employment?:confused::confused::rolleyes:

[codesmith]

Teddy, thanks for these numbers.

So your 'GC in hand' date predictions has not changed much yet .With SOFAD of 25k your projection is still Dec 2007- Mid Jan 2008 right ?
Sun, what's the number of 485 Eb2/I filers - you think between Jul 07 to Jan 08 ?
Somewhere 16k ? or even lesser ?

[Spectator]

Spec, Thanks for your post & terminology, it looks very good. I would start using the terminology from your post henceforth.
So my Transformation Factor - .75 * .80 * 2.125 = 1.275
I believe everyone should assume their own factors on this aspect. Most people do agree with a 20% denial rate of I40. I like to go with a high FB factor because of the unique things about I/C, Pedro had once put this in a very humorous way that most parents would not allow their children i.e. us to not be married by this age and 1 in 8 definitely have non US born kinds. Those with no – US born kids are typically IT consultants who normally come from India after having 5+ years of experience. The reason for using higher rate of EB2 as .75 is that post 2007 people atleast from I/C realized that EB3 is a hopeless path and there are silent conversions which we would never be able to track by Eb3 inventory reductions.
I kind of went the other way to find demand destruction by assuming the OR as 1, OR = 1 is validated by the first half of 2007. This way 1/1.275 = .78. So implicitly the demand destruction by this logic would be ~ 22%. This comes out to be higher than your assumed demand destruction figures because your transformation factor is lower.
Now the real thing is that time post 2007 was bad and so even in the best case the OR could come down to 0.8. With 16.5 months of forward movement the approximate intake would be 16.5 * 2200 * .8 = 29.5K. For sure 8.5K as in the demand data and in fact probably 1-1.5K more has already been allocated to EB2 I/C already, even this month there are very steady approvals for Eb2-I on Trackitt. So clearly we are close to the 40K SOFAD line this year by adding intakes + consumption, this is under the assumption that the OR is .8 if it's any higher then definitely the effective intake is much more. By the OR of .8 the DD comes out to be 1- .8/1.275 = .38 or 38%.Teddy,

As always, I enjoy reading your posts. In fact, I've been waiting for a response from you to measure my thinking by.

I agree with you that approvals to date may well be in the region of 10k for EB2-IC. Since there is yet to be a Primary approval beyond a PD of July 31, 2007, it tends to validate earlier discussions that a number of approvals remained from PDs reached in FY2011.

It is good to have a common language to discuss the numbers. I quite like OR, because even if we use different TR and DD, OR is a common number at the end of those calculations.

The reason I use an EB2 % of 65% is that PWD analysis (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?59-Prevailing-Wage-Determination-Data-Analysis) suggests an EB2 % of about 70%. Given that some are multiple requests and some are for Porting, I have reduced the % to 65%.

I can't argue about your choice of Dependent Factor - as a personal choice I have stuck to the known ratio for EB2 of 2.05.

The tables I originally posted (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?172-Cut-Off-Dates-in-FY2012-for-Levels-of-SOFAD-amp-Porting-Cases-Not-Approved-in-FY2011) have an average OR of 0.861

Times have moved on and we have new information - I wonder whether it is worth replacing or supplementing those figures in light of the possibility of greater DD? Possibly, it gives an easy way for everybody to see the effect.

If it is a good idea, what OR to use? I am quite happy to use 0.8, which is 37.3% DD for your TR of 1.275 and 25% DD for my TR of 1.066.

Or, do you want to see a more aggressive number? Currently, for best case scenario purposes only, I am playing around with an OR of 0.67, which represents 33.4% DD for my TR. It would be a rather high 47.75% DD for your TR. Let me know what figure you wish to use for some revised tables.

On another note, I am looking forward to seeing the next USCIS Inventory, although I suspect it might be of limited value.

I say this because, at best, it can only cover movement up to the December VB, but the December figures probably will not be complete. The rush to get December filings in was tempered by the knowledge that dates will still be Current in January and we have anecdotal evidence that some of the larger Immigration firms, such as Fragomen, can be very slow in submitting applications. For this reason, only dates Current in the November VB may be anything like complete and that doesn't represent huge numbers.

I think that the subsequent USCIS inventory for the end of March 2012 will be a far better indicator.

[vgogte1]

It appears that while we don't know how far the priority dates go, they will definately retrogess at some point.Based on what happened with PWMB, can Guru's please clarify what happens when dates retrogess? e.g. Feb bulletin progresses dates to Dec 2009(wishful thinking,of course).Then dates don't move in March bulletin at all. Then in April bulletin, dates retrogress to July 2008. In this case, what happens to the people with PD between July 2008 to Dec 2009 who have already applied for the AOS before the April bulletin was released? Do they get EADs?Do they get APs?Also, how specifically is cut-off for applications set by USCIS in this situation?

[veni001]

Veni,

I can't Thank you enough. Last night I read the PDF and mentally prepared to travel out of US without receipts.
Just now, I saw 6 Receipt notices in mail box.
Me & my wife are happy that we will travel now for family emergency in India.

It is strange, earlier I thought going to India is only after getting AP in hand, due to fear of 221g with visa stamping. But now, that fear is nullified due to unfortunate family loss.

ThankU.

mygctracker,

Sorry to hear that, Family is first!

Try your best not to miss the bio-metrics or at-least reschedule the appointment.

My heart and prayers goes to your family during this tough time.

[suninphx]

Sun, what's the number of 485 Eb2/I filers - you think between Jul 07 to Jan 08 ?
Somewhere 16k ? or even lesser ?

I was calculating based on Teddy's numbers (2200*.8) per month plus porting. So that comes around 16000 you are right.

My own numbers are lesser. ( I have different assumptions than T - I am expecting Aggessive DD)

[suninphx]

It appears that while we don't know how far the priority dates go, they will definately retrogess at some point.Based on what happened with PWMB, can Guru's please clarify what happens when dates retrogess? e.g. Feb bulletin progresses dates to Dec 2009(wishful thinking,of course).Then dates don't move in March bulletin at all. Then in April bulletin, dates retrogress to July 2008. In this case, what happens to the people with PD between July 2008 to Dec 2009 who have already applied for the AOS before the April bulletin was released? Do they get EADs?Do they get APs?Also, how specifically is cut-off for applications set by USCIS in this situation?

They get EAD/AP and wait till visa numbers becomes available like Jul 2007 filers.

[veni001]

It appears that while we don't know how far the priority dates go, they will definately retrogess at some point.Based on what happened with PWMB, can Guru's please clarify what happens when dates retrogess? e.g. Feb bulletin progresses dates to Dec 2009(wishful thinking,of course).Then dates don't move in March bulletin at all. Then in April bulletin, dates retrogress to July 2008. In this case, what happens to the people with PD between July 2008 to Dec 2009 who have already applied for the AOS before the April bulletin was released? Do they get EADs?Do they get APs?Also, how specifically is cut-off for applications set by USCIS in this situation?

vgogte1,
As long as one apply for EAD/AP (both are optional) with their AOS application, will receive EAD/AP. If and when dates retrogress it will be based on number of documentarily qualified cases Vs total number of VISAs available.

[dec2007]

vgogte1,
As long as one apply for EAD/AP (both are optional) with their AOS application, will receive EAD/AP. If and when dates retrogress it will be based on number of documentarily qualified cases Vs total number of VISAs available.

Veni, if I apply amended 140 along with AOS application, will that delay getting a visa number. My PD is dec2007. Premiium processing not allowed for 140 amendments.

thanks,

[qesehmk]

sportsfan

Thanks for posting this. And thanks for posting in a "matter-of-fact"-manner without clouding it with your emotions.

The more I thought about it, the more sense it made to me. Here is a key reason why.

In 2007 when the dates were made current, it was a flood of 1/2 million 485 applications! So if CO were to make it current there would be repitition of the same. And so one strategy could be to make it current or almost current over 5-8 months. Thereby allowing USCIS to cope up with the flood of applications. This keeps the economy competitive while allowing controlled immigration. EB immigration hardly is a job killer. What's 140K jobs in 100 million plus jobs in the US?

Anyway .. I am digressing. But basically the strategy on COs part could be to make it current or near current in a controlled manner. My 2 cents.

On another note-imdeng - your point is well taken. But I do think Teddy Spec Veni active here. I see great activity on advocacy thread. If anything I am guilty of not contributing enough. Unfortunately my schedule has gotten uselessly busy. Hope one day I can come back with full force. A few things are in the works but we will see..

In general - I would urge people to feel absolutely feel free to share whatever bit of "FACTUAL" information they have. Rest assured generally people here are quite tolerant.




I don't think my source really reads any forums. Not worried.

I thought about a long time before posting all of my information. Firstly, I never knew this guy was in the thick of the things. I came to know this today morning. Yes, it could be wishful thinking. Secondly, I understand a lot of folks are going to be very disappointed if this does not come true. But I still went ahead and took a chance, because I think there are parts of the information that are very useful to us.

If the bulletin does not progress, it may be due to the unexpected heavy demand. It has already progressed beyond anyone's wildest dreams.

The red flag in my chat with him is that he never talked about the demand picture. He did admit that very heavy demand could cause retrogression.

[vgogte1]

Thank you suninphx,Veni.

[Spectator]

Suninphx

what are your numbers? I too have lesser numbers(!!!)

After Jan 2012 bulletin, my numbers look slim and trim . (30K- 35K upto Dec 08)Kanmani & Suninphx,

Please share your assumptions for TF & DD, or just your OR if that makes it easier.

Do your end figures include Porting & Extra numbers from FY2011? If so, how many for each?

Thanks.

[suninphx]

Kanmani & Suninphx,

Please share your assumptions for TF & DD, or just your OR if that makes it easier.

Do your end figures include Porting & Extra numbers from FY2011? If so, how many for each?

Thanks.

Spec,

Around 48- 50K without porting till Dec 2009. I have overall ratio of 0.72 - 0.75. Aggressive DD is based on some qualitative evidence

1) PD moved 8.5 months in last bulletin and trackitt was remarkably silent. On previous occasion a movement of 3-4 months used to create buzz on trackitt with posts like ' i am current etc'. May be people were busy discussing HR3012. But it’s hard to believe that people did not find time to post a single liner like 'yay I am current etc'. May be people are busy preparing documents ...but again its hard to believe for me that people did not find time to post a single liner.

2) There have been few polls including one on our site which show several multiple PERM filings. The one on CM's site has as many as 55 out of 159 voted. Now there may be people who were able to capture old PD but I guess is that percentage is less.


3) I opened radomly few 2008 cases on trackitt for which PERM has been approved. I wanted to see if those guys have updated H1 extn status etc. That way I wanted to determine if they are active. Saw serveral cases with no recent updates..multiple PERMS and such. Now there is possibility that people have got tired or lost interest in trackitt etc. But unless otherwise proven I wanted to use statistics to my advantage.

4) If transformation ratio was 1 for a period where people had EAD cushion ...then I believe that it will be below 1 post Jul 2007. As we get more and more data picture will be clearer.


So that’s my take on numbers. It may be right or may be wrong. I don’t worry much about that part...but giving an attempt was more important for me :)

[EB2Jun08]

Dec2007,
My PD become current with current bulletin and 140 amendment is pending. I work for fortune company and attorney mentioned that its better to get amendment approved before filing 485,
they mentioned that premium processing is possible and they are filing this week.I will let you know if INS accepts or rejects the premium process for amendment.

[Jonty Rhodes]

Came across this report.

Thought this may be of some help in calculations. It only includes numbers from CP demand and not AOS.

Please remove it it has been posted before or not of much use.

http://travel.state.gov/pdf/WaitingListItem.pdf

Interesting thing is EB-5 category where so many from Mainland China are waiting.

Also, would appreciate comments from Gurus on this theory of re-calibrated EB2IC PD movement.

http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.com/2011/12/eb2-ic-visa-bulletin-movements-fy-2012.html

[murali83]

Guys,

I dont follow trackitt much, but I just saw a green card received update on trackitt for EB2-I with a PD of 25-Jul-2007. Is this the 1st card issuance for July that we are seeing, or am I missing something.

Murali

[imdeng]

Life happens Q - thats fine. I love this forum and I know this will continue to be a vibrant community thanks to the great work being done here every day.


On another note-imdeng - your point is well taken. But I do think Teddy Spec Veni active here. I see great activity on advocacy thread. If anything I am guilty of not contributing enough. Unfortunately my schedule has gotten uselessly busy. Hope one day I can come back with full force. A few things are in the works but we will see..

[veni001]

Veni, if I apply amended 140 along with AOS application, will that delay getting a visa number. My PD is dec2007. Premiium processing not allowed for 140 amendments.

thanks,

dec2007,
In most cases should not delay the time to get VISA number assigned.

[Spectator]

Spec,

Around 48- 50K without porting till Dec 2009. I have overall ratio of 0.72 - 0.75. Aggressive DD is based on some qualitative evidence

1) PD moved 8.5 months in last bulletin and trackitt was remarkably silent. On previous occasion a movement of 3-4 months used to create buzz on trackitt with posts like ' i am current etc'. May be people were busy discussing HR3012. But it’s hard to believe that people did not find time to post a single liner like 'yay I am current etc'. May be people are busy preparing documents ...but again its hard to believe for me that people did not find time to post a single liner.

2) There have been few polls including one on our site which show several multiple PERM filings. The one on CM's site has as many as 55 out of 159 voted. Now there may be people who were able to capture old PD but I guess is that percentage is less.


3) I opened radomly few 2008 cases on trackitt for which PERM has been approved. I wanted to see if those guys have updated H1 extn status etc. That way I wanted to determine if they are active. Saw serveral cases with no recent updates..multiple PERMS and such. Now there is possibility that people have got tired or lost interest in trackitt etc. But unless otherwise proven I wanted to use statistics to my advantage.

4) If transformation ratio was 1 for a period where people had EAD cushion ...then I believe that it will be below 1 post Jul 2007. As we get more and more data picture will be clearer.


So that’s my take on numbers. It may be right or may be wrong. I don’t worry much about that part...but giving an attempt was more important for me :)suninphx,

Thanks for sharing and explaining the rationale.

Running your figures against the PERM numbers gave an OR of 0.65 - 0.68 to reach 48 - 50k by the end of December 2009. That was without adding any cases flowing through from FY2011. I might add 1.5k for those.

Although that is a pretty aggressive OR, I don't think it is too way out - in fact it is fairly close to the best case scenario I am running.

[suninphx]

suninphx,

Thanks for sharing and explaining the rationale.

Running your figures against the PERM numbers gave an OR of 0.65 - 0.68 to reach 48 - 50k by the end of December 2009. That was without adding any cases flowing through from FY2011. I might add 1.5k for those.

Although that is a pretty aggressive OR, I don't think it is too way out - in fact it is fairly close to the best case scenario I am running.

Spec,

Thanks for feedback. Good to know its near your best case scenario. Hope that scenario becomes reality.

[gkjppp]

Came across this report.

Thought this may be of some help in calculations. It only includes numbers from CP demand and not AOS.

Please remove it it has been posted before or not of much use.

http://travel.state.gov/pdf/WaitingListItem.pdf

Interesting thing is EB-5 category where so many from Mainland China are waiting.

Also, would appreciate comments from Gurus on this theory of re-calibrated EB2IC PD movement.

http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.com/2011/12/eb2-ic-visa-bulletin-movements-fy-2012.html

Johnty, retro seems worst in the http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.co...s-fy-2012.html , i dont think it may go back to 2006/2007. for me Jun 2012 to Dec 2012 predictions might not be possible at all. most of Jul 2007 guys already started getting Visa's and with Spillover it may clear backlog anywhere between Dec 2007 to Mar 2008, as per current trend between oct 2012 to Mar 2013, CO needs to build pipe line for next year SOFAD. Hope Guru's can comment on this.

[Reddy001]

Hi,

I'm in a situation where my wife had to travel to India after biometrics for family emergency. One mistake we did was we didnt check with our company lawyer.

I have contacted my lawyer yesterday, he said that there is this emergency/Expedited AP where you can get in couple of days. I confirmed the same calling USCIS.
Please check with attorney on this.

Now we are planning to get back my wife on H4 before the 485 approval, after which my H1 and her H4 would be cancelled.



Jan2008,

Thanks for the caution. But from what I've read and learnt, it is not considered abandoned. I believe Gurus here will chime in to clearify.

I sent a paid question to LawBench, just to be sure.

Thanks

[Kanmani]

Spec my theory is totally different and take it as third opinion

Minimum Demand Destruction --- 38%
Optimal Demand Destruction ---- 45%

multiple perms 28%
As per our data collection in this forum 14 out of 49 have 2 or more perms. Every perm has potential two I-485s ( for easy calculation 3 people per perm is not considered) .So 14 /50 are spare perms which extrapolates 28% of the total perms are spare.
Suninphx has 55/159 from CM poll which signal even more higher spares around 35%

Abandonment 10%
My thoery of Abandonment of perms are from people pulled back by the MNCs themselves during recession

[gkjppp]

It appears that while we don't know how far the priority dates go, they will definately retrogess at some point.Based on what happened with PWMB, can Guru's please clarify what happens when dates retrogess? e.g. Feb bulletin progresses dates to Dec 2009(wishful thinking,of course).Then dates don't move in March bulletin at all. Then in April bulletin, dates retrogress to July 2008. In this case, what happens to the people with PD between July 2008 to Dec 2009 who have already applied for the AOS before the April bulletin was released? Do they get EADs?Do they get APs?Also, how specifically is cut-off for applications set by USCIS in this situation?

whoever applied will get EAD and AP for sure. they need to wait for available visa numbers only for GC. correct me if i am wrong.

[Sandeep2011]

Gurus,

I am not sure if we discussed this before. I have not seen any demand data being released in December 2011. On USCIS site, the last updated demand data is from November. Has anyone been able to find out demand data for December (one that should have been released in first/second week of December)?

[Spectator]

Spec my theory is totally different and take it as third opinion

Demand Destruction --- 38%

multiple perms 28%
As per our data collection in this forum 14 out of 49 have 2 or more perms. Every perm has potential two I-485s ( for easy calculation 3 people per perm is not considered) .So 14 /50 are spare perms which extrapolates 28% of the total perms are spare.
(Suninphx has 55/159 from CM poll which signal even more higher spares)

Abandonment 10%
My thoery of Abandonment of perms are from people pulled back by the MNCs themselves during recessionKanmani,

Thanks for your comments.

I agree that multiple PERM might account for the greater amount of DD.

I have been following both the thread here and I have also seen the CM calculations.

It's difficult to reach a conclusion on the effect, because the poll numbers are so low.

[MeraNoAayega]

Gurus,

I am not sure if we discussed this before. I have not seen any demand data being released in December 2011. On USCIS site, the last updated demand data is from November. Has anyone been able to find out demand data for December (one that should have been released in first/second week of December)?

Its not mandatory for the DOS to publish demand data for every month. They have not published it before. The DOS did not publish the demand data that is used to calculate dates for Jan 2012 & I for one don't think they will publish one for Feb 2012.

[Kanmani]

Spec

Out of the immigrant population few hundreds are reading the attorney forums and other immigration related forums and in specific very few are participating in discussions and polls . I firmly believe that this poll if taken in large population would result in the same way as I have concluded.

[gkjppp]

Spec

Out of the immigrant population few hundreds are reading the attorney forums and other immigration related forums and in specific very few are participating in discussions and polls . I firmly believe that this poll if taken in large population would result in the same way as I have concluded.

Guru's, Can someone analyze EB2IC movements for next year i.e Feb 2012 to Jan 2013? Lets go with 38% DD and 75:25 EB2:EB3 ratio

[codesmith]

Spec

Out of the immigrant population few hundreds are reading the attorney forums and other immigration related forums and in specific very few are participating in discussions and polls . I firmly believe that this poll if taken in large population would result in the same way as I have concluded.

Hi Kanmani,
can you add "correction factor" to the minimum and maximum percentages of multiple perms ? 28% and 35% looks bit bigger.. again without having a large number of sampling it's difficult to come up with a number, so just to be more conservative or when considering large number sample we may not see this much multiple perms.
Do you think 15% multiple perms + 10% is closer/practical ?

[krishnav]

Hi All,

Can anyone tell me what was the latest PD for which a GC was approved. Just trying to figure out if at all any Retrogression happens, what could be the possible date as my PD is in Sept 2007.

Thanks.

[codesmith]

Codesmith

I hesitate to come down below 25% for multiple perms.

Q forum cluster map shows our members and visitors are residing all around USA. If possible we can try asking our friends (atleast 10) for multiple perm data which would help us widening the horizon.

Members and visitors all are welcome. Pls comeup with some information.

Thanks Kanmani,
I think its a good idea to come up with large sample, I know about 8-10 guys who filed after Jan 2008 and all are primary applicants and filed with one perm.

The percentage of multiple perms in a family may be 15 to 20%, since it was little difficult after 2008 to file for H1. So I don't think there would be more than 20% multiple perms from a single family.
The other category of multiple perms after 2008 may not be high.

[vizcard]

whoever applied will get EAD and AP for sure. they need to wait for available visa numbers only for GC. correct me if i am wrong.

Yes. Assuming you have applied for it.

[kabphx]

Codesmith

I hesitate to come down below 25% for multiple perms.

Q forum cluster map shows our members and visitors are residing all around USA. If possible we can try asking our friends (atleast 10) for multiple perm data which would help us widening the horizon.

Members and visitors all are welcome. Pls comeup with some information.

Couple of things to note Post July07.

There was a pattern started around July 2007 for PERM for EB2. The amount of Audits went up crazy for EB2 asking for more specific details why Masters is required for the said position. The average response time for these audits were 12+ months. During this time (Aug 07- May 08 )there were many lawyers who had advised many saying that its better to file under EB3 as the turnout is lot quicker. I know many of my friends who had 5+ years or experience and also had masters filing for their PERM under EB3. The idea behind that was you can get your EB3 PERM apply for I-140 and get the required Extension to stay and work.

So the ratio of EB2 to EB3 is not 75:25 but i would put it at 60:40 on the higher side.


Talking about Demand Destruction. My initial PD was Oct 2007 and i got audited we replied back in Dec 2007 and my PERM was approved only in Nov 2008 at that time i had to change jobs and i refiled for PERM with the new employer on Apr2009. I was fully active in Trackit at that time 90% of the EB2I cases were under audit. You can check the avg approval time during that time in Trackit if they still have the data it would be very high. Also taking from the above point re-filing of PERM could cause the DD% to be on the higher side.
So the DD% of 20-25% could be understandable.

So +1 me who had multiple PERMs :)

[codesmith]

Couple of things to note Post July07.

There was a pattern started around July 2007 for PERM for EB2. The amount of Audits went up crazy for EB2 asking for more specific details why Masters is required for the said position. The average response time for these audits were 12+ months.
So the ratio of EB2 to EB3 is not 75:25 but i would put it at 60:40 on the higher side.
So +1 me who had multiple PERMs :)

Kab,
Interesting points, but it may be possible that the ration of Eb3:Eb2 (60:40 ) may be during the phase of post jul 07- 08 and again from 09 or may be 2010 onward
the ratio is 75:25.
that time 90% of the EB2I cases were under audit.- So, again during post jul07 to 08 we may have multiple perms than we may not see it in 09 and 10.

[kabphx]

Kab,
Interesting points, but it may be possible that the ration of Eb3:Eb2 (60:40 ) may be during the phase of post jul 07- 08 and again from 09 or may be 2010 onward
the ratio is 75:25.
that time 90% of the EB2I cases were under audit.- So, again during post jul07 to 08 we may have multiple perms than we may not see it in 09 and 10.

Yes True.. I was talking specifically about 07 and 08.
CO may not see the higher filings for Jan as well and i am expecting movement. I agree with Sports theory totally.

2009 and 2010 is a different ballgame and % of audits have gone down drastically. So as the number of EB2I.

The Scenarios have been changing per year and we cannot stick one simple calculation and apply to all the years. Just my 2cents.

[iatiam]

Why do u think audits went down. Economy was even worse in 2009 and 2010.

[Pdmar08]

Its not mandatory for the DOS to publish demand data for every month. They have not published it before. The DOS did not publish the demand data that is used to calculate dates for Jan 2012 & I for one don't think they will publish one for Feb 2012.

Pondering over this a bit.
Could this be an intentional action? Not releaseing demand data i mean.
The last one showed close to 0 demandfor EB2IC. Could it be because DOS didnt want to raise a storm by showing zeros. Not sure what the run rate is for preadjudication in a month, it might not necessarily be zero.

[mesan123]

Hi Kanmani..

I can give u some input...i have 3 friends...they each have 2 perms(they filled in EB2, i mean no porting). they are current now as there initial perm dates were 2008


Codesmith

I hesitate to come down below 25% for multiple perms.

Q forum cluster map shows our members and visitors are residing all around USA. If possible we can try asking our friends (atleast 10) for multiple perm data which would help us widening the horizon.

Members and visitors all are welcome. Pls comeup with some information.

[cm9201]

I have 2 perms, my brother have 3 perms(changed jobs with porting date). I have few friends who moved jobs and got new perms and all we are current now.

[manzoorraza]

Kanmani,

I have 4 friends that I know about, details below:

1. Family of 2, both filed separately. PD Feb 2008
2. Family of 2, both filed separately. PD Mar 2008
3. Family of 2, Single filing. PD Mar 2008
4. Single Guy, Single filing, PD Mar 2008

Hope it helps



Codesmith

I hesitate to come down below 25% for multiple perms.

Q forum cluster map shows our members and visitors are residing all around USA. If possible we can try asking our friends (atleast 10) for multiple perm data which would help us widening the horizon.

Members and visitors all are welcome. Pls comeup with some information.

[kd2008]

From what mesan123, and cm9201 are saying and if it holds true for a large swath, there should be little demand destruction for 2008 and a large one in 2009-2010 when the newer PERMs to retain old priority dates were filed.

This seems at odds with what CO saw - not enough filings till March 2008.

Would husband and wife each having separate PERMs account for the low level of filings?

Mystery gets deeper and deeper....

[gkjppp]

Kanmani,

I have 4 friends that I know about, details below:

1. Family of 2, both filed separately. PD Feb 2008
2. Family of 2, both filed separately. PD Mar 2008
3. Family of 2, Single filing. PD Mar 2008
4. Single Guy, Single filing, PD Mar 2008

Hope it helps

Well my ex colleagues list goes like below

1. my ex colleagues around 70 + filed for PERM in early 2008 (all single PERMS) all got audited and approved this Mar 2011.one Perm. < all are pretty much applying for 485 next month,none moved out to different jobs either, all are married><head count approx 145,all other kids are citizens>
2. one friend in MN applied in EB3 in 2007 laid off later applied in EB3 in 2010 Jan and moved to different job and applied in EB2 in nov 2011. his wife also applied in EB3 2009.< head count 2, Multiple Perm, but does not affect EB2 pool>
3. one more family with 1 kid applied in EB2 , apr 2009 is PD. Single perm < head count 3>
4. ex collegue PD Aug 2008, wife is working on H1 but labor not applied.with 3 kids all citizens.one Perm.<head count 2>
5. one more family with PD Feb 2006, poor guy not applied for 485 during 2007 fiasco. himself+ his wife <head count 2>
5. ex colleague PD Dec 2008 , wife is working on H1. one Perm.
6. ex collegue PD Mar 2008 with wife, daughter is citizen. single Perm.

if i think of, i dont see much DD, quite intresting.

[veni001]

From what mesan123, and cm9201 are saying and if it holds true for a large swath, there should be little demand destruction for 2008 and a large one in 2009-2010 when the newer PERMs to retain old priority dates were filed.

This seems at odds with what CO saw - not enough filings till March 2008.

Would husband and wife each having separate PERMs account for the low level of filings?

Mystery gets deeper and deeper....


kd2008,

I wouldn't count until March2008 (Dec'11 VB) but until 30 OCT 2007 (Nov'11 VB).

I am not sure about USCIS/DOS/CO expectations, but there is no way that they can gauge demand coming-in for EB2IC filers with PD between 01NOV07 and 15MAR2008 in 5 business days after they are eligible to file (before Jan’12 VB is out)

[suninphx]

kd2008,

I wouldn't count until March2008 (Dec'11 VB) but until 30 OCT 2007 (Nov'11 VB).

I am not sure about USCIS/DOS/CO expectations, but there is no way that they can gauge demand coming-in for EB2IC filers with PD between 01NOV07 and 15MAR2008 in 5 business days after they are eligible to file (before Jan’12 VB is out)

I dont know whether they are doing it or not doing it but there are many sophisticated tools available to project expected demand based on first 5 days demand.

Having said that most probably CO statement was based on data till Oct 30 2007.

[veni001]

I dont know whether they are doing it or not doing it but there are many sophisticated tools available to project expected demand based on first 5 days demand.

Having said that most probably CO statement was based on data till Oct 30 2007.

suninphx,
Agree, on average it is taking a week to 10 days to generate receipts for the new applications delivered to lock-boxes.

I hope USCIS is using receipts in calculating new EB2IC485 demand.

[suninphx]

suninphx,
Agree, on average it is taking a week to 10 days to generate receipts for the new applications delivered to lock-boxes.

I hope USCIS is using receipts in calculating new EB2IC485 demand.

Veni- even for demand till Oct 30 2007 being 'far below than expectation'...does it sound interesting? or may be its too early to infer anything from that statement.

[mesan123]

most of my collegaues have mutiple perms inculding me(out of 10 people i know, 8 have mutiple perms and 2 have single fillings)...but i assume atleast 2010 and 2011 have mutiple approved perms which had porting of old dates from 2007 and 2008......if we assume same situation of previous years...can we assume atleast 15-20% of people have mutiple perms..if so how would it affect the DD?

[BBear123]

kd2008,

I wouldn't count until March2008 (Dec'11 VB) but until 30 OCT 2007 (Nov'11 VB).

I am not sure about USCIS/DOS/CO expectations, but there is no way that they can gauge demand coming-in for EB2IC filers with PD between 01NOV07 and 15MAR2008 in 5 business days after they are eligible to file (before Jan’12 VB is out)

I completely agree on their ability to gauge demand. Bear in mind the drastic movement probably caught a lot of people off guard as well.


I dont know whether they are doing it or not doing it but there are many sophisticated tools available to project expected demand based on first 5 days demand.

Having said that most probably CO statement was based on data till Oct 30 2007.

Those forecasts would have a lot of variance though, especially considering the drastic advancement in dates.

[suninphx]

I completely agree on their ability to gauge demand. Bear in mind the drastic movement probably caught a lot of people off guard as well.



Those forecasts would have a lot of variance though, especially considering the drastic advancement in dates.

Assuming you are talking about 'sophisticated tools' then as far as I know degree of variance can be controlled. All we need is quality data. And who else other than USCIS has quality data. ( In terms of I140 filings , eb2:eb3 percentage and lot more).

[BBear123]

Assuming you are talking about 'sophisticated tools' then as far as I know degree of variance can be controlled. All we need is quality data. And who else other than USCIS has quality data. ( In terms of I140 filings , eb2:eb3 percentage and lot more).

I am. As veni pointed out, the sample size is really small; 5 (perhaps 7) days of filing data. I am inclined to treat the data more suspiciously although you are right that the USCIS is the only entity with the data at this point.

Each their own :)

[suninphx]

I am. As veni pointed out, the sample size is really small; 5 (perhaps 7) days of filing data. I am inclined to treat the data more suspiciously although you are right that the USCIS is the only entity with the data at this point.

Each their own :)

I am talking about forecasting tools. And those tools are not modeled using 5-7 days data. USCIS is doing this for years. So they have all type of data which can be modeled ( Ofcourse if they want to) - I am talking from that angle.

Real question is whether they have/ want to use those tools.

PS: As far as my guess goes at least 65% people file in those first 5-7 days and by no means its small data sample IMO.

[BBear123]

I am talking about forecasting tools. And those tools are not modeled using 5-7 days data. USCIS is doing this for years. So they have all type of data which can be modeled ( Ofcourse if they want to) - I am talking from that angle.

Real question is whether they have/ want to use those tools.

PS: As far as my guess goes at least 65% people file in those first 5-7 days and by no means its small data sample IMO.

I understand how forecasting tools work. My last post on this, as I said before everyone has their own take on it.

[qesehmk]

Friends

Voting for December Charity is on. Please vote if you would like. We will donate at least $104 to a charity on Dec 31st.

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?90-Account-of-Donations-We-Made&p=16644#post16644

p.s. - My apologies for a short voting horizon of only 10 days.

[RMS_V13]

One more guys..

My husband has an Ammended LCA approved and certified by DOL for dates 2011-2014. Does this require an ammended I 129 petition also or an ammended LCA more than enough and we can retain the old petition itself?

[suninphx]

One more guys..

My husband has an Ammended LCA approved and certified by DOL for dates 2011-2014. Does this require an ammended I 129 petition also or an ammended LCA more than enough and we can retain the old petition itself?

This may very case to case. I would go by attorney's advice.

[Kanmani]

In any event, the I-485 applicant should not leave the country before the Receipt is received ( or atleast the cheque is encashed by the uscis) to avoid abondonment of the I-485 application.

Moderators please move these posts to the appropriate thread after the purpose is met.

[RMS_V13]

Guys what is the EVC model? Companies like Accenture, Deloitte etc are EVC(when you are an FTE and travel to client locantions) or typical examples of EVC are Desi consultants? How would you know that based on LCA/I 129

I have to get my H4 stamped. My husband works for an American consulting firm as a Full Time employee. Recently, he had an updated LCA. Does this prompt an ammended H1 B also?

[dec2007]

Dec2007,
My PD become current with current bulletin and 140 amendment is pending. I work for fortune company and attorney mentioned that its better to get amendment approved before filing 485,
they mentioned that premium processing is possible and they are filing this week.I will let you know if INS accepts or rejects the premium process for amendment.

I think premium processing is allowed if amended 140 is applied. But if you file amended 140 along with 485, then it is not allowed.
others please correct me if im wrong.

[asankaran]

Not necessary. Recently my wife went for H4 stamping and it was successful. I changed client from the one I got my H1 extension to another one. We got updated LCA and no amendment etc..

Guys what is the EVC model? Companies like Accenture, Deloitte etc are EVC(when you are an FTE and travel to client locantions) or typical examples of EVC are Desi consultants? How would you know that based on LCA/I 129

I have to get my H4 stamped. My husband works for an American consulting firm as a Full Time employee. Recently, he had an updated LCA. Does this prompt an ammended H1 B also?

[idiotic]

Guys,

My feeling is that once HR3012 becomes law, the subsequent month visa bulletin EB2 dates will be current for all atleast for a months just to let every eligible candidate to file 485 and then it may retrogress to one common date for all countries. How many of you wizards agree with me. Your thoughts and insights will be helpful to me.

Thanks..

[vishnu]

Hi Idiotic (love the name by the way) - love the optimism too that the bill will become law! I hope you are right.

Given the phase in, i think the full fledged first come first server, kicks in only from 2014. So they could still make it current for a month or so to get in apps, but it will still retrogress to a more favoriable date for ROW compared to IC.

[imdeng]

In my opinion 'C' is just not happening. The issue is mainly people who have not applied I-140 as yet - once dates are C, they can all apply for 140+485 concurrently. That would mean that an EB2I with a 2012 PD might get GC before someone with 2008 PD. Instead of making it C, they can advance dates aggressively - like say Jan 2011 - that will give them enough applications while still maintaining some kind of order. After that the dates will just move to a single PD for the category.

Guys,

My feeling is that once HR3012 becomes law, the subsequent month visa bulletin EB2 dates will be current for all atleast for a months just to let every eligible candidate to file 485 and then it may retrogress to one common date for all countries. How many of you wizards agree with me. Your thoughts and insights will be helpful to me.

Thanks..

[manubhai]

Guys,

My feeling is that once HR3012 becomes law, the subsequent month visa bulletin EB2 dates will be current for all atleast for a months just to let every eligible candidate to file 485 and then it may retrogress to one common date for all countries. How many of you wizards agree with me. Your thoughts and insights will be helpful to me.

Thanks..

Disclaimer: Wishful thinking ahead!

I agree with you that IC will need to be made current for at least a couple of months if 3012 becomes law. I dont see any other way that CO can get till April or May 2012 the number of applications needed to satisfy IC's FY2012 quota (visa numbers allotted to those applications by Sep 30, 2012).

But wait.... there IS another way.

(Disclaimer: HORRENDOUS Wishful thinking ahead!)

And that's what CO is already doing... moving VB as fast as he can without getting fired. If this continues for the next few months, CO may get enough number of applications to even satisfy IC's FY2012 quota when 3012 passes.

Hopefully some wizards/gurus here will rip the above apart and bring me back to reality.

That apart... don't forget to do what you can to push for HR 3102's success.

[Spectator]

The USCIS Dashboard (http://dashboard.uscis.gov) has been updated with the October 2011 figures.

[vedu]

I-140 receipts (total 31697) during Jun, 2011 to October, 2011 are significantly less as compared to the receipts (total 39758) during Jun, 2010 to October, 2010. If we consider 4 months processing time for I-140 to actual green card conversion, this reduction in I-140 receipts will have a positive effect on the spill over for the current year.


The USCIS Dashboard (http://dashboard.uscis.gov) has been updated with the October 2011 figures.

[Spectator]

Disclaimer: Wishful thinking ahead!

I agree with you that IC will need to be made current for at least a couple of months if 3012 becomes law. I dont see any other way that CO can get till April or May 2012 the number of applications needed to satisfy IC's FY2012 quota (visa numbers allotted to those applications by Sep 30, 2012).

But wait.... there IS another way.

(Disclaimer: HORRENDOUS Wishful thinking ahead!)

And that's what CO is already doing... moving VB as fast as he can without getting fired. If this continues for the next few months, CO may get enough number of applications to even satisfy IC's FY2012 quota when 3012 passes.

Hopefully some wizards/gurus here will rip the above apart and bring me back to reality.

That apart... don't forget to do what you can to push for HR 3102's success.manubhai,

I disagree.

Even with a very aggressive assumption for DD, the movement to 01-JAN-09 is probably enough for even the theoretical maximum numbers. That won't be possible anyway, because ROW-M-P will probably have already used more than the 15% allowance.

Any further movement in the February VB will guarantee sufficient numbers for EB2-IC can be approved within FY2012.

Aside from that, CO can move Cut Off Dates as late as the April/May VB and the cases are likely to be documentarily qualified by the end of September.

Like others, I don't think the movement has anything to do with any pending legislation. As with F2A, CO is moving the COD as far forward as possible (within reason) for as long as he has the opportunity to do so.

[gkjppp]

manubhai,

I disagree.

Even with a very aggressive assumption for DD, the movement to 01-JAN-09 is probably enough for even the theoretical maximum numbers. That won't be possible anyway, because ROW-M-P will probably have already used more than the 15% allowance.

Any further movement in the February VB will guarantee sufficient numbers for EB2-IC can be approved within FY2012.

Aside from that, CO can move Cut Off Dates as late as the April/May VB and the cases are likely to be documentarily qualified by the end of September.

Like others, I don't think the movement has anything to do with any pending legislation. As with F2A, CO is moving the COD as far forward as possible (within reason) for as long as he has the opportunity to do so.

Gurus/Members

1.I have no clue on what logic Mr.CO moving dates, per Dec demnad data, we had around 150+ EB2 pending cases < Dec bulletin which moved 3.5 months and then Jan 9.5 months approx 2k per month= 21K( we know 26k perms for year 2008 and DD around 38% this comes 16k + eb3 to eb2 porting 5k> per Guru's sofad for 2012 is around 20k in that 8k being used so 21-12=9k. as you said theoritically CO already stretched for 4 more months to be in waiting list and no need to move dates any more.I am not sure SOFAD numbers 12k are still available or already used(please correct me here).

2.whats trend? how many numbers used to be in pipe line to allocate visanumbers ?

3.if CO think 40 to 50 k to be ideal number to keep in pipe line, he can move further till end of Dec 2009/Apr2010 . which gives < for 2009 16k*DD <.38>=10k*2.1=21k+9k(carryforward from 1)=30k+<eb3 to eb2 upgrades around >+5k a year=35k. if CO includes first 4 months of 2010 till April it will be 1200*2.1*4=10k+1600<eb3 to eb2>=12k Total backlog= 50k(approx ).

4.2013 Sofad may be close to 20k(based on yearly trend) so by Oct 2012 , if CO goes with pipe line of 20k, he can push for next 3 months i.e till apr1st 2009 and can make backlog to 0 by 2013 year. else if CO likes to keep pipeline of 20 k for next year he can push till 1st May 2010 in next 2 to 3 bulletins and stall there till next oct/nov 2012.<this is most unlikely, unless USCIS think of generating funds>. rather he may push further 3 months till apr 2009 and stall there till next year spillover time.

5.Whatever ,I think dates has to move to 1st quarter of 2010 by Jan 2012 bulletin.

This is very tricky, no straightforward assumptions or math in it. Demand data gives us more input, i feel we might not get DD for next month either because of holiday season and huge 9.5 months movement, if at all we get, we may get it just for Dec 2011.

let me know if above lines make any sense? i have 0 knolwedge in Visa numbers, i appreciate members inputs on this.

[BBear123]

The USCIS Dashboard (http://dashboard.uscis.gov) has been updated with the October 2011 figures.

I-485 monthly receipts look pretty steady. Nov, Dec, data would be interesting to see how it affected visa bulletins.

[Feb262009]

Hi Spec,
Can you please explain how to read this data? I don't understand how interpret the chart.


The USCIS Dashboard (http://dashboard.uscis.gov) has been updated with the October 2011 figures.

[veni001]

The USCIS Dashboard (http://dashboard.uscis.gov) has been updated with the October 2011 figures.

Thank you Spec


I-485 monthly receipts look pretty steady. Nov, Dec, data would be interesting to see how it affected visa bulletins.

BBear123,
Very good observation.


Hi Spec,
Can you please explain how to read this data? I don't understand how interpret the chart.

A quick look at the data shows that I140 and i-485 receipts are steady for the last 6 months.

But when compared PERM certification data to i140 receipts data shows significant increase in EB1 filings!


P.S: The trending is almost same even after considering 2 month lag between PERM certification and i140 receipt.

[Spectator]

Gurus/Members

1.I have no clue on what logic Mr.CO moving dates, per Dec demnad data, we had around 150+ EB2 pending cases < Dec bulletin which moved 3.5 months and then Jan 9.5 months approx 2k per month= 21K( we know 26k perms for year 2008 and DD around 38% this comes 16k + eb3 to eb2 porting 5k> per Guru's sofad for 2012 is around 20k in that 8k being used so 21-12=9k. as you said theoritically CO already stretched for 4 more months to be in waiting list and no need to move dates any more.I am not sure SOFAD numbers 12k are still available or already used(please correct me here).

2.whats trend? how many numbers used to be in pipe line to allocate visanumbers ?

3.if CO think 40 to 50 k to be ideal number to keep in pipe line, he can move further till end of Dec 2009/Apr2010 . which gives < for 2009 16k*DD <.38>=10k*2.1=21k+9k(carryforward from 1)=30k+<eb3 to eb2 upgrades around >+5k a year=35k. if CO includes first 4 months of 2010 till April it will be 1200*2.1*4=10k+1600<eb3 to eb2>=12k Total backlog= 50k(approx ).

4.2013 Sofad may be close to 20k(based on yearly trend) so by Oct 2012 , if CO goes with pipe line of 20k, he can push for next 3 months i.e till apr1st 2009 and can make backlog to 0 by 2013 year. else if CO likes to keep pipeline of 20 k for next year he can push till 1st May 2010 in next 2 to 3 bulletins and stall there till next oct/nov 2012.<this is most unlikely, unless USCIS think of generating funds>. rather he may push further 3 months till apr 2009 and stall there till next year spillover time.

5.Whatever ,I think dates has to move to 1st quarter of 2010 by Jan 2012 bulletin.

This is very tricky, no straightforward assumptions or math in it. Demand data gives us more input, i feel we might not get DD for next month either because of holiday season and huge 9.5 months movement, if at all we get, we may get it just for Dec 2011.

let me know if above lines make any sense? i have 0 knolwedge in Visa numbers, i appreciate members inputs on this.gkjppp,

There are some misconceptions in your post.

I think most people think 25k SOFAD is more likely than 20k.

DD is only part of the conversion from PERM numbers to I-485 numbers. Before that is calculating the Transformation Factor.

I think you are using Teddy's figures of 75% EB2, 80% I-140 Approval Rate and 2.125 Dependents. That gives a TF of 1.275.

Demand Destruction of 38% (37.3% to be accurate) gives an Overall Ratio of 0.8. That is the figure to multiply the PERM by.

2008 has 27.7k IC PERM, so that converts to about 22.1k I-485.

Using an OR of 0.8 and excluding any other factors like Porting or extra cases from FY2011, 40k reaches a Cut Off Date of 22-NOV-08 and 50k reaches a Cut Off Date of 15-JUN-09.

To reach a COD of 01-JAN-10 would require 57.3k and for COD of 01-MAY-10 it needs 61.8k.

The Current COD in the January VB of 01-JAN-09 translates to 42.3k using the above assumptions.

Hope that helps.

[priyesh]

Gurus,

One question. My PD is April 08 2008.

How does USCIS process the AOS application? Is it first come first served basis within a month or is it priority date basis? Being holiday season, my lawyers wouldn't be able to send my application by 1st Jan. It may go out around 10th Jan. Does that make a big impact on when I get my GC ?

[manubhai]

manubhai,

I disagree.

Even with a very aggressive assumption for DD, the movement to 01-JAN-09 is probably enough for even the theoretical maximum numbers. That won't be possible anyway, because ROW-M-P will probably have already used more than the 15% allowance.

Any further movement in the February VB will guarantee sufficient numbers for EB2-IC can be approved within FY2012.

Aside from that, CO can move Cut Off Dates as late as the April/May VB and the cases are likely to be documentarily qualified by the end of September.

Like others, I don't think the movement has anything to do with any pending legislation. As with F2A, CO is moving the COD as far forward as possible (within reason) for as long as he has the opportunity to do so.

Spec,
I hate it when people disagree with me. Especially when they do that with sound logical analysis. I just hope (wish?) you are dead wrong. Other than that, you are probably absolutely correct.

[veni001]

Gurus,

One question. My PD is April 08 2008.

How does USCIS process the AOS application? Is it first come first served basis within a month or is it priority date basis? Being holiday season, my lawyers wouldn't be able to send my application by 1st Jan. It may go out around 10th Jan. Does that make a big impact on when I get my GC ?

priyesh,

Applications are being processed in the order of receipt.

VISA allocation will be based on PD within the processed applications(documentarily qualified)

[Spectator]

Spec,
I hate it when people disagree with me. Especially when they do that with sound logical analysis. I just hope (wish?) you are dead wrong. Other than that, you are probably absolutely correct.manubhai,

Loved your dry reply!

Sorry I was not able to have given you a more agreeable answer.

[nathang]

gkjppp,

There are some misconceptions in your post.

I think most people think 25k SOFAD is more likely than 20k.

DD is only part of the conversion from PERM numbers to I-485 numbers. Before that is calculating the Transformation Factor.

I think you are using Teddy's figures of 75% EB2, 80% I-140 Approval Rate and 2.125 Dependents. That gives a TF of 1.275.

Demand Destruction of 38% (37.3% to be accurate) gives an Overall Ratio of 0.8. That is the figure to multiply the PERM by.

2008 has 27.7k IC PERM, so that converts to about 22.1k I-485.

Using an OR of 0.8 and excluding any other factors like Porting or extra cases from FY2011, 40k reaches a Cut Off Date of 22-NOV-08 and 50k reaches a Cut Off Date of 15-JUN-09.

To reach a COD of 01-JAN-10 would require 57.3k and for COD of 01-MAY-10 it needs 61.8k.

The Current COD in the January VB of 01-JAN-09 translates to 42.3k using the above assumptions.

Hope that helps.

Thanks for the post. And thanks for your perm breakdown which saves hours of work and effort that I was expecting to spend :).

From the perm breakdown data that you posted:

Jan 2007 to Dec 2007 (perm approved after Aug 17): 15,360
Jan 2008 to Dec 2008: 27,715
Jan 2009 to June 2009: 10,416
Jan 2009 to Dec 2009: 18,789

Total from Jan 2007 to Dec 2008: 43,075
Total from Jan 2007 to June 2009: 53,491
Total from Jan2007 to Dec 2009: 61,864

With a OR of 0.8 as the perm to 485:

Till Dec 2008: 0.8 * 43075 = 34,460
Till June 2009: 0.8 * 53491 = 42,792
Till Dec 2009: 0.8 * 61864 = 49491

So with these numbers, shouldn't 40k reach somewhere in April 2009 and 50k will be around Dec 2009? You had mentioned 40k is till nov 2008 and 50k till 15-jun-09. Am I missing something?

[BBear123]

Thanks for the post. And thanks for your perm breakdown which saves hours of work and effort that I was expecting to spend :).

From the perm breakdown data that you posted:

Jan 2007 to Dec 2007 (perm approved after Aug 17): 15,360
Jan 2008 to Dec 2008: 27,715
Jan 2009 to June 2009: 10,416
Jan 2009 to Dec 2009: 18,789

Total from Jan 2007 to Dec 2008: 43,075
Total from Jan 2007 to June 2009: 53,491
Total from Jan2007 to Dec 2009: 61,864

With a OR of 0.8 as the perm to 485:

Till Dec 2008: 0.8 * 43075 = 34,460
Till June 2009: 0.8 * 53491 = 42,792
Till Dec 2009: 0.8 * 61864 = 49491

So with these numbers, shouldn't 40k reach somewhere in April 2009 and 50k will be around Dec 2009? You had mentioned 40k is till nov 2008 and 50k till 15-jun-09. Am I missing something?

I think you are missing porting from EB3 to EB2 for one thing.

[vishnu]

but porting is already reflected via the perms, no?

[BBear123]

but porting is already reflected via the perms, no?

Most of the calculations that I have seen from this thread bring in porting as an independent quantity.

I think you could add a porting component to OR and calculate it via PERMs but if they recapture priority dates, it gets tricky to account for it.

[Spectator]

Thanks for the post. And thanks for your perm breakdown which saves hours of work and effort that I was expecting to spend :).

From the perm breakdown data that you posted:

Jan 2007 to Dec 2007 (perm approved after Aug 17): 15,360
Jan 2008 to Dec 2008: 27,715
Jan 2009 to June 2009: 10,416
Jan 2009 to Dec 2009: 18,789

Total from Jan 2007 to Dec 2008: 43,075
Total from Jan 2007 to June 2009: 53,491
Total from Jan2007 to Dec 2009: 61,864

With a OR of 0.8 as the perm to 485:

Till Dec 2008: 0.8 * 43075 = 34,460
Till June 2009: 0.8 * 53491 = 42,792
Till Dec 2009: 0.8 * 61864 = 49491

So with these numbers, shouldn't 40k reach somewhere in April 2009 and 50k will be around Dec 2009? You had mentioned 40k is till nov 2008 and 50k till 15-jun-09. Am I missing something?nathang,

I think you are not accounting for existing cases, which were reported at about 8k at the end of FY2011.

So a simple calculation would be:

Existing cases --------------------- 8,000 (looks like it is more than this)
New PD2007 cases (15,360 * 0.8) --- 12,288
New PD2008 cases (27,715 * 0.8) --- 22,172

Total to end of PD2008 ------------ 42,460
New Jan-Jun PD2009 cases ----------- 8,333

Total to end of June PD2009 cases - 50,793
New Jul-Dec PD2009 cases ----------- 6,698

Total to end of PD2009 ------------ 57,491

Hope that helps.

[Spectator]

but porting is already reflected via the perms, no?


Most of the calculations that I have seen from this thread bring in porting as an independent quantity.

I think you could add a porting component to OR and calculate it via PERMs but if they recapture priority dates, it gets tricky to account for it.vishnu,

Yes, it is true that the EB2 for Porting will need a PERM, but it is likely that the PD of the EB2 would be in 2010 or 2011.

Therefore, up to then, a Porting case is extra and no significant reduction is required. Either the original EB3 PERM was pre April 15, 2007, or is not accounted for in the EB2:EB3 split.

It is a good point and I account for it in my model from 2010 onwards, when Porting really started to increase and some of the EB2 PERM were probably obtained for Porting of an earlier EB3 PD.

Earlier, the Transformation Factor was described as :

EB2% * I-140 Approval % * Dependent Ratio

I actually use :

TF = EB2% * I-140 Approval % * Dependent Ratio * (100% - % Porting Cases)

or alternatively to reach the final number of I-485 I could use :

((PERM * EB2%) - Assumed Porting EB2 PERM) * I-140 Approval % * Dependent Ratio * Demand Destruction

It may not be perfect, but I am aware of the issue and trying to allow for it. To date, I don't believe it is a significant factor, as Cut Off Dates have not moved into 2010.

[suninphx]

Thank you Spec



BBear123,
Very good observation.



A quick look at the data shows that I140 and i-485 receipts are steady for the last 6 months.

But when compared PERM certification data to i140 receipts data shows significant increase in EB1 filings!


P.S: The trending is almost same even after considering 2 month lag between PERM certification and i140 receipt.

For Oct 11 VB dates were moved 3 months. So we should see higher I485 receipts for that month(PWMBs)... but does not seem to be case..not sure if I am reading graph right.

[Spectator]

Spec

weren't those 8000 cases already approved ? ( cases upto july 31 2007 )

Mind voice :- Nobody is on my side to strengthen my theory of apr to july cases approved from 2011 quota visa numbers .Kanmani,

The October Demand Data showed 8,075 EB2-IC cases still remaining as we started FY2012. The USCIS Inventory showed a figure of 8,225.

The PD2007 PERM figures quoted in the previous post are for cases that could not have been pre-existing, so they are in addition to the 8k pre-existing cases.

[suninphx]

Spec

Why can't I argue like this in a layman style ? Pls take it as a constructive argument.

Eventhough the October inventory says " data as on october 1 2011", there is a possibility that the data might have prepared during sept. We have already seen an inventory showing data as on June 2011, but having been unofficially released during may 2011.

Moreover, those PDs between Apr to July were getting approved after Oct 1 2011.

I had similar argument with Teddy few months back. For which he gave me detailed logical reply. I will try to locate that post. (While I am convinced with his logic - back of mind I have some hopes alive given the history of agencies involved. :) ). Meantime will wait for Spec's reply.

[Spectator]

Spec

Why can't I argue like this in a layman style ? Pls take it as a constructive argument.

Eventhough the October inventory says " data as on october 1 2011", there is a possibility that the data might have prepared during sept. We have already seen an inventory showing data as on June 2011, but having been unofficially released during may 2011.

Moreover, those PDs between Apr to July were getting approved after Oct 1 2011.As suninphx says, this is a debate that we have already had. I have not seen any evidence that the numbers as presented are not correct, although feel free to hold a different opinion. The fact that approvals for EB were halted before the end of FY2011 lends credence to the fact that the numbers remained.

I don't quite understand what you are trying to say in this sentence:


Moreover, those PDs between Apr to July were getting approved after Oct 1 2011.

The Cut Off Date in the September 2011 VB was 15-APR-07, so PDs between April 15, 2007 to July 14,2007 could only be approved from October 1, 2011 when FY2012 started and the October VB came into effect with a Cut Off Date of 15JUL07.

Those numbers are part of the 8k.

To date, judging by Trackitt, well over 8k EB2-IC appear to have been approved and not a single Primary applicant has a PD later than July 31, 2007.

[suninphx]

To date, judging by Trackitt, well over 8k EB2-IC appear to have been approved and not a single Primary applicant has a PD later than July 31, 2007.

All these days I have seen people discussing number visa's per quarter has limit.(Don't know exact details). So has that limit been exceeded here?

[Kanmani]

Thanks Spec.

Moreover, those PDs between Apr to July were getting approved after Oct 1 2011

8K is shown in the Demand and inventory prior to its approval and they got approved after oct 2011. What I meant to say is 8K is already done so that we should exclude them from the total .

[tackle]

All these days I have seen people discussing number visa's per quarter has limit.(Don't know exact details). So has that limit been exceeded here?

I remember someone posted a link to an official document which indicated that if the "Demand" is low, per country limits should not be imposed. Considering the fact that the EB2-I/C demand is close to 0, I'd think that they are not imposing the per country limits. Am I mistaken?

[Spectator]

Thanks Spec.

Moreover, those PDs between Apr to July were getting approved after Oct 1 2011

8K is shown in the Demand and inventory prior to its approval and they got approved after oct 2011. What I meant to say is 8K is already done so that we should exclude them from the total .Kanmani,

Maybe we are talking at cross purposes (and it wouldn't be the first time)!

If we exclude the 8k then sure we can say that a further x are required to reach a specific Cut Off Date from the date that 8k were used this year.

But the total needed in the entire year from October 1, 2011 to reach that Cut Off Date (SOFAD) would be 8k + x.

That is the figure I am quoting.

If you are saying that those 8k were approved from the FY2011 quota, then we'll have to agree to disagree.

I know this is something dear to your heart, so I won't push it further.

Enjoy your Holiday.

[veni001]

For Oct 11 VB dates were moved 3 months. So we should see higher I485 receipts for that month(PWMBs)... but does not seem to be case..not sure if I am reading graph right.

suninphx,

Yes,Oct'11 i485 receipts include PWMB's. Looking at EB2IC PERM certifications after July-2007 (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?85-PERM-Breakdowns-For-PD-(including-Monthly-Breakdown)-for-China-amp-India) this number is not significant between 15APR2007 to 15JUL2007 (~3.5k PERMS).

You can apply EB2:EB3, i140 denial ratio and any other factors to estimate possible EB2IC PWMB's for the three month period.

[Spectator]

All these days I have seen people discussing number visa's per quarter has limit.(Don't know exact details). So has that limit been exceeded here?suninphx,

To the extent that we have to use Trackitt numbers, IMO it appears that if the 27% limit hasn't already been exceeded, it is pretty damn close to it.

Within the error margins, CO seems to have done a pretty good job as far as I can tell.

[Spectator]

suninphx,

Yes,Oct'11 i485 receipts include PWMB's. Looking at EB2IC PERM certifications after July 2007 (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?85-PERM-Breakdowns-For-PD-(including-Monthly-Breakdown)-for-China-amp-India) this number is not significant between 15APR2007 to 15JUL2007 (~3.5k PERMS).

You can applying EB2:EB3, i140 denial ratio and any other factors to estimate possible EB2IC PWMB's for the three month period.Veni,

I agree with you.

October might have added 1.5-2.1k new EB2-IC I-485, depending on how aggressive a DD % is applied. That sort of number is too small to isolate from the normal variance between months.

[suninphx]

suninphx,

To the extent that we have to use Trackitt numbers, IMO it appears that if the 27% limit hasn't already been exceeded, it is pretty damn close to it.

Within the error margins, CO seems to have done a pretty good job as far as I can tell.

Thanks Spec.

Yes I was talking about 27%. is it 27% of total quota?

[shaumack]

Kanmani,

Maybe we are talking at cross purposes (and it wouldn't be the first time)!

If we exclude the 8k then sure we can say that a further x are required to reach a specific Cut Off Date from the date that 8k were used this year.

But the total needed in the entire year from October 1, 2011 to reach that Cut Off Date (SOFAD) would be 8k + x.

That is the figure I am quoting.

If you are saying that those 8k were approved from the FY2011 quota, then we'll have to agree to disagree.

I know this is something dear to your heart, so I won't push it further.

Enjoy your Holiday.

I agree with Spec over here. When it will come to available SOFAD for CO to decide where cut-off dates would end up on retrogression, those 8K have to be considered. They came from this years quota. So this years cut off date will be determined by the Demand = SOFAD - 8K-PWMB visa use-Porting upto that time.

PWMB and Porting is discretionary and one can take their best guess to estimate.

[vedu]

Guys,

As I understand, the available total annual visa quota is 366,000 (140,000 + 226,000). Out of curiosity, I counted the total I-485 completions during Oct, 10 to Sept, 11 from the USCIS dashboard. I was expecting that number to be approximately same as the annual quota. But to my surprise, the total I-485 completions during year 2011 were 637,385. Why is there so much difference? Is the rejection rate that high?

[veni001]

Guys,

As I understand, the available total annual visa quota is 366,000 (140,000 + 226,000). Out of curiosity, I counted the total I-485 completions during Oct, 10 to Sept, 11 from the USCIS dashboard. I was expecting that number to be approximately same as the annual quota. But to my surprise, the total I-485 completions during year 2011 were 637,385. Why is there so much difference? Is the rejection rate that high?

vedu,
Please note: Lot of other people can apply for AOS while in US besides EB&FB applicants!

On average US is welcoming 1 million immigrants(AOS+CP) every year!

[vedu]

Thanks Veni,

That makes sense. At the least, I also need to include I-485 applications generated by the diversity program.

vedu,
Please note: Lot of other people can apply for AOS while in US besides EB&FB applicants!

On average US is welcoming 1 million immigrants(AOS+CP) every year!

[tackle]

I remember someone posted a link to an official document which indicated that if the "Demand" is low, per country limits should not be imposed. Considering the fact that the EB2-I/C demand is close to 0, I'd think that they are not imposing the per country limits. Am I mistaken?

reference (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?148-EB2-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)-2012&p=13238#post13238)

[suninphx]

reference (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?148-EB2-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)-2012&p=13238#post13238)

Thanks. :)

Also got reply from Spec.

[Spectator]

Thanks Veni,

That makes sense. At the least, I also need to include I-485 applications generated by the diversity program.vedu,

AOS applications and approvals come from many sources. For FY2010, the breakdown (according to DHS) was as follows for AOS approvals :


------------------ AOS FY2010
Immediate Relative -- 252,842
Employment Based ---- 136,010
Family Based --------- 26,279
Diversity ------------- 1,571
Refugees & Asylees -- 136,291
Others --------------- 13,583

Total --------------- 566,576

[nishant2200]

Refugees & Asylees -- 136,291

WOV

btw below EB numbers are only for AOS, so they don't include CP, hence we should not conclude they wasted numbers, just an observation, as my first reaction was 4k wasted.


vedu,

AOS applications and approvals come from many sources. For FY2010, the breakdown (according to DHS) was as follows for AOS approvals :


------------------ AOS FY2010
Immediate Relative -- 252,842
Employment Based ---- 136,010
Family Based --------- 26,279
Diversity ------------- 1,571
Refugees & Asylees -- 136,291
Others --------------- 13,583

Total --------------- 566,576

[Spectator]

Thanks Spec.

Yes I was talking about 27%. is it 27% of total quota?suninphx,

Yes that is 27% of the 140k quota, or 37,800 visas in each of the first 3 quarters.

[Spectator]

Refugees & Asylees -- 136,291

WOV

btw below EB numbers are only for AOS, so they don't include CP, hence we should not conclude they wasted numbers, just an observation, as my first reaction was 4k wasted.nishant,

It is a pretty startling number, isn't it?

Thanks for reinforcing the fact that the numbers relate to AOS only. Since EB received extra numbers from FB in FY2010, the CP number was nearer 13k than 4k (in case people thought 4k seemed a bit low).

[bieber]

Kd2008

That post from ** (pappu) is so lame,

It's up to people what to do with the time, it's important to note that it was Q who first declared dates will move to atleast Mar,2008 in this fy. As per CO, the date movement will have huge movements till they get sufficient inventory and once we have the data, all the calculations and predictions will resume. It has already been proved with best accuracy that is possible.

their only policy is, give us money and don't ask questions otherwise

[nishant2200]

nishant,

It is a pretty startling number, isn't it?

Thanks for reinforcing the fact that the numbers relate to AOS only. Since EB received extra numbers from FB in FY2010, the CP number was nearer 13k than 4k (in case people thought 4k seemed a bit low).

Absolutely.

And I am pretty sure that this category is not scrutinized as much, and such high numbers have to indicate misuse and fraud. I am not against the reason behind the category, there is a value in humanity. In my wildest dreams even I didn't anticipate asylum and refugee category to take even more AOS numbers than EB. There is no World War 3 going on.

Coming back to our discussion of numbers at hand, thanks for pointing out that EB got extra numbers that year from FB. It was kind of bothering to me that just 4k out of 140k for CP doesn't sound right.

[TeddyKoochu]

The USCIS Dashboard (http://dashboard.uscis.gov) has been updated with the October 2011 figures.


I-140 receipts (total 31697) during Jun, 2011 to October, 2011 are significantly less as compared to the receipts (total 39758) during Jun, 2010 to October, 2010. If we consider 4 months processing time for I-140 to actual green card conversion, this reduction in I-140 receipts will have a positive effect on the spill over for the current year.

Spec thanks for posting, one good trend finally is that the pace of I140 approvals has calmed down and the backlog is in the same range. Vedu from the EB2 I/ perspective the collateral damage was already done in the last 3 months when the backlog came down by a full 20K from the peak.

[vedu]

Thanks Spec,

That's quite a number! On a completely different note, I was surprised by one other observation on the dashboard. Total I-485 completions for October, 11 (47,736) were less than the completion numbers in October, 10 (48,570). This is strange considering the following three factors:

1. Last year visas were exhausted in the middle of September, 11 and many ROW applicants had to wait for October to get their cases cleared.

2. Unprecedented number of I-140 applications were cleared in August and September requiring additional visa numbers.

3. A lot of pre-adjudicated IC cases were cleared in October, 11.

But since I-485 numbers comes from many different categories (as you noted in your post), I guess we should not read too much into these numbers.


vedu,

AOS applications and approvals come from many sources. For FY2010, the breakdown (according to DHS) was as follows for AOS approvals :


------------------ AOS FY2010
Immediate Relative -- 252,842
Employment Based ---- 136,010
Family Based --------- 26,279
Diversity ------------- 1,571
Refugees & Asylees -- 136,291
Others --------------- 13,583

Total --------------- 566,576

[TeddyKoochu]

Spec

weren't those 8000 cases already approved ? ( cases upto july 31 2007 )

Mind voice :- Nobody is on my side to strengthen my theory of apr to july cases approved from 2011 quota visa numbers .


Kanmani,

The October Demand Data showed 8,075 EB2-IC cases still remaining as we started FY2012. The USCIS Inventory showed a figure of 8,225.

The PD2007 PERM figures quoted in the previous post are for cases that could not have been pre-existing, so they are in addition to the 8k pre-existing cases.

Spec thanks; I would really agree with the 10K figure as approvals till Q1 2012, I believe you said in another post responding to me. The demand data as you said had 8225 while the inventory has 14K (EB2 I + C), since even this month EB2-I approvals are coming by even this month (Jul + Aug )they are coming after the demand data said near zero a month back. The real truth could probably be a average of the DD & Inventory which would be 11K. So 10K is probably the minimum that has been / will be consumed out of these years SOFAD by Dec 31st, the inventory may always have some problematic long running cases and some maybe adjusted for porting. Kanmani they had announced in early Sep that numbers are over.

[Spectator]

Spec thanks; I would really agree with the 10K figure as approvals till Q1 2012, I believe you said in another post responding to me. The demand data as you said had 8225 while the inventory has 14K (EB2 I + C), since even this month EB2-I approvals are coming by even this month (Jul + Aug )they are coming after the demand data said near zero a month back. The real truth could probably be a average of the DD & Inventory which would be 11K. So 10K is probably the minimum that has been / will be consumed out of these years SOFAD by Dec 31st, the inventory may always have some problematic long running cases and some maybe adjusted for porting. Kanmani they had announced in early Sep that numbers are over.Teddy,

I should have been more precise about the derivation of the figures.

8,075 represents the reported figure for EB2-IC to the end of 2007 from the October Demand Data document.

8,225 represents the numbers of EB2-IC from April 15, 2007 onwards reported in the May 27, 2011 USCIS Inventory (the latest available at the time).

As you said, subsequently the October 1, 2011 USCIS Inventory was released, which showed slightly lower numbers for that specific time period of 8,145.

As always, you have summed up everything beautifully.

The USCIS Inventory indicates that there are more cases that might become documentarily qualified than the 8,075 reported by DOS.

I agree with you that the USCIS numbers contain some dead cases and also that 10-11k is probably a more realistic figure.

Like you, I also think some attempt has been made in the latest Inventory to show known Porting cases as EB2.

[iatiam]

So I found this online,
http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/uscis/menuitem.5af9bb95919f35e66f614176543f6d1a/?vgnextoid=2be702798785e210VgnVCM100000082ca60aRCR D&vgnextchannel=cdfd2f8b69583210VgnVCM100000082ca60a RCRD

It gives a denial rate of about 50% for all the I140 for 2005 to 2010. Spec's calculations take about 20%. Is there a disconnect or am I missing some thing?

IATIAM

[iatiam]

I know this issue has been beaten to death and I generally agree that the certified expired cases should be considered towards the calculations. But here is a question - what if some one files for PERM and does not proceed to the I140 stage. Does overall TR cover the cases like this?

[leo07]

We just allocate certain percentage to such no-show cases.

[gkjppp]

So I found this online,
http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/uscis/menuitem.5af9bb95919f35e66f614176543f6d1a/?vgnextoid=2be702798785e210VgnVCM100000082ca60aRCR D&vgnextchannel=cdfd2f8b69583210VgnVCM100000082ca60a RCRD

It gives a denial rate of about 50% for all the I140 for 2005 to 2010. Spec's calculations take about 20%. Is there a disconnect or am I missing some thing?

IATIAM
This is for EB1, i am sure we dont get this info for EB2/3.

[Spectator]

So I found this online,
http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/uscis/menuitem.5af9bb95919f35e66f614176543f6d1a/?vgnextoid=2be702798785e210VgnVCM100000082ca60aRCR D&vgnextchannel=cdfd2f8b69583210VgnVCM100000082ca60a RCRD

It gives a denial rate of about 50% for all the I140 for 2005 to 2010. Spec's calculations take about 20%. Is there a disconnect or am I missing some thing?

IATIAM
As gkjppp noted, those statistics are for EB1A and EB1B.

I know we discussed this issue sometime last year. I think Veni may have derived a figure for EB2, but I can't remember for sure.

20% does feel about right for EB2 and is probably mainly driven by mismatches in PERM language and Educational equivalency issues.

If DOL and USCIS used the same criteria, the denial rate would be very low, since it is otherwise fairly quantitative. You either have a Masters or Bachelors + 5 or you don't and the job either requires it or not.


I know this issue has been beaten to death and I generally agree that the certified expired cases should be considered towards the calculations. But here is a question - what if some one files for PERM and does not proceed to the I140 stage. Does overall TR cover the cases like this?

Again, this has been discussed previously. I believe the consensus was that the % of cases where a PERM was approved and no I-140 submitted within 180 days would be quite low.

Any allowance for it would be made within the other factors, rather than adding an additional one.

Personally, I already use 5 different variables per year, per Country - that is 50 variables already.

Please keep highlighting any issues you think about. We may not have discussed them and it is good to revisit some of the old ones from time to time to ensure the thinking is still valid.

[kd2008]

As gkjppp noted, those statistics are for EB1A and EB1B.

I know we discussed this issue sometime last year. I think Veni may have derived a figure for EB2, but I can't remember for sure.

20% does feel about right for EB2 and is probably mainly driven by mismatches in PERM language and Educational equivalency issues.

If DOL and USCIS used the same criteria, the denial rate would be very low, since it is otherwise fairly quantitative. You either have a Masters or Bachelors + 5 or you don't and the job either requires it or not.



Again, this has been discussed previously. I believe the consensus was that the % of cases where a PERM was approved and no I-140 submitted within 180 days would be quite low.

Any allowance for it would be made within the other factors, rather than adding an additional one.

Personally, I already use 5 different variables per year, per Country - that is 50 variables already.

Please keep highlighting any issues you think about. We may not have discussed them and it is good to revisit some of the old ones from time to time to ensure the thinking is still valid.

Spec, I think we have done all we can. We have good handle on PERM data, I-140 filings and approvals, EB2/3 split, EB3->2 porting. We have some data on duplicate filings - some of which may be diluted from porting data. We certainly would like better and concrete data on that.

One thing we don't have data on is demand destruction from people returning or abandoning the GC process, applications left to die by companies due to lay offs, mergers changes, people unable to keep their old PDs, spouse PERM filing etc. In this case I believe even USCIS or DoS won't be of any help. The only thing that can help is forward movement of dates and the filings reflected in the I-485 inventory. We may get a first glimpse at that next month - but it will contain very limited data at best.

[veni001]

I know this issue has been beaten to death and I generally agree that the certified expired cases should be considered towards the calculations. But here is a question - what if some one files for PERM and does not proceed to the I140 stage. Does overall TR cover the cases like this?

iatiam,

Spec addressed this several times before.

PERM process is laborious, expensive and time consuming. In most cases if the employee leave the employer before PERM approval, employer withdraw his/her petition.

Once PERM is approved, the employee can retain the PD (forever!) so the chances of not proceeding with i140 are very less (except in extreme cases).

So the bottom line is, various factors and ratios we are using should cover small % of PERMs that may not reach i140 stage.

[Kanmani]

Once PERM is approved, the employee can retain the PD (forever!) so the chances of not proceeding with i140 are very less (except in extreme cases).



Veni
Employees' Priority Dates can be retained only after I-140 approval.
After Perm approval if the employee leaves the company, he/she carries nothing.

[Mavrick]

Until mid 2007 employees were able to retain their priority dates if they had approved PERM. After 2007, employees were able to retain their priority date only if they have approved I-140. Even with approved I-140 there is no guarantee that they can retain the priority date.

[veni001]

Veni
Employees' Priority Dates can be retained only after I-140 approval.
After Perm approval if the employee leaves the company, he/she carries nothing.

Kanmani,

Yes, that is what i meant!

Once PERM is approved, chances of employee leaving employer before i140 approval are very less!(to be able to retain PD)

[bieber]

Veni, Kanmani
Regarding 140 approvals there is one important thing to consider, premium processing for 140 was allowed only since June/July of 2009, so people with late 2007 to early 2009 PDs had more difficulties and hence more chance of abandoning the process

[bieber]

Kanmani,
Just the preparation for 485, I think once we get Jan inventory and Feb bulletin, the calculations will be just like old times :)

Good to see many posts from Spec in last few days

[nishant2200]

Bieber, how is everything going ?

I wonder there is an unusual silence among the immigration ( Eb2) community these days. Where are those poeple who got current in Dec and Jan bulletins ? Is there anything else other than they're busy with I-485 preparations ? Enthusiasm is lacking in other forums too including trackitt.

Does anyone have a clue what is happening ?

Kanmani,

An important thing to now watch out for is approvals for October filers, which ideally should start trickling in January and in February. NSC has processing time of 4 months.

This is what USCIS says about processing times:
"If the office is processing a particular type of application in less time than our processing goal, you will see the processing times expressed in months (for example, if the office is processing naturalization applications in less than our 5 month goal, the processing time will state "Five Months"). However, if that office is taking longer than our processing goal to handle the form type in question, you will see the filing date (e.g., "April 10, 2003") of the last case we processed on the date the website chart was last updated. The charts are updated on or about the 15th day of each month."

So at least NSC is capable of starting approvals as soon as in 2 months, and mostly always less than 4 months on an average. I have a Korean co-worker, whose concurrent application was approved in 2 months, as soon as he got FP done, in a week he got approval.

This will be an important milestone.

Another thing, today 2/23, they still have not updated processing times, otherwise they consistently update around the 15th as they claim. It indicates to me that indeed they are in holiday mode.

[mesan123]

Happy Holidays & AdvanceNew Year wishes to GURUS & all of you....Hoping this New Year bring Peace & Happiness to all of you :)

[qblogfan]

Guys, finally the evil employer decided to file 485 for me after fighting for one month. It was a crazy process.

Now I got a draft version of 485. I noticed one problem: when my I140 was filed, they put my title as "Lead Analyst" and now they put "Senior Analyst" title on my I485. On my G325A form, they put 2003-2010 Lead Analyst, 2010-present, Senior Analyst. My third H1B (2010-2013) had the tile "Senior Analyst". The job duties are exactly the same. Will this be a problem? If they send out a RFE, will they ask why the title on 485 is different from the approved I140? Indeed these two job titles have the same job duties, nothing different.

[qesehmk]

qbf ... you really made me happy with this news! I am sure many others on this forum are going to be happy for you.

i personally do not think the title mismatch is such a big deal as long as job duties are same or in increasing order of responsibility. I do not think there should be RFE. But even if there is .... it wlll be a short affair.


Guys, finally the evil employer decided to file 485 for me after fighting for one month. It was a crazy process.

Now I got a draft version of 485. I noticed one problem: when my I140 was filed, they put my title as "Lead Analyst" and now they put "Senior Analyst" title on my I485. On my G325A form, they put 2003-2010 Lead Analyst, 2010-present, Senior Analyst. My third H1B (2010-2013) had the tile "Senior Analyst". The job duties are exactly the same. Will this be a problem? If they send out a RFE, will they ask why the title on 485 is different from the approved I140? Indeed these two job titles have the same job duties, nothing different.

[suninphx]

Guys, finally the evil employer decided to file 485 for me after fighting for one month. It was a crazy process.

Now I got a draft version of 485. I noticed one problem: when my I140 was filed, they put my title as "Lead Analyst" and now they put "Senior Analyst" title on my I485. On my G325A form, they put 2003-2010 Lead Analyst, 2010-present, Senior Analyst. My third H1B (2010-2013) had the tile "Senior Analyst". The job duties are exactly the same. Will this be a problem? If they send out a RFE, will they ask why the title on 485 is different from the approved I140? Indeed these two job titles have the same job duties, nothing different.

Superlike!!

[qblogfan]

Q, thank you very much! I appreciate your input.

I fought with the company for many different times, so they started this process this week, but I am not sure whether they can submit my files before the end of this year.

What I did was: I stopped showing up in office for almost one week. I told my direct boss that I would not continue to work there without 485 filed. Also our project was in danger, but now it can last for at least one more year or so. Finally they decided to file 485 for me. It's so much pain to deal with these people.

This process has been full of frustration and humiliation. As a foreign labor, we are under the company's mercy. I don't like this kind of feeling. It's a terrible feeling indeed. I wish I can get over this crap and have a happy ending on this thing.


qbf ... you really made me happy with this news! I am sure many others on this forum are going to be happy for you.

i personally do not think the title mismatch is such a big deal as long as job duties are same or in increasing order of responsibility. I do not think there should be RFE. But even if there is .... it wlll be a short affair.

[nishant2200]

Guys, finally the evil employer decided to file 485 for me after fighting for one month. It was a crazy process.

Now I got a draft version of 485. I noticed one problem: when my I140 was filed, they put my title as "Lead Analyst" and now they put "Senior Analyst" title on my I485. On my G325A form, they put 2003-2010 Lead Analyst, 2010-present, Senior Analyst. My third H1B (2010-2013) had the tile "Senior Analyst". The job duties are exactly the same. Will this be a problem? If they send out a RFE, will they ask why the title on 485 is different from the approved I140? Indeed these two job titles have the same job duties, nothing different.

It's fine, job duties are similar and it's just promotion, ur EVL correctly indicates the progression and continued employment.

[qblogfan]

Nishant, how are you? thank you for your input.

These two titles are almost the same. I don't know any difference between them, but the attorney applied my 3rd H1B and he put this title. These attorneys and CEO never told me anything. They never told me it's promotion or not. I do the same thing in the past 8 years. I have to follow whatever they say.

I hope my GC journey can get a happy ending. Indeed it was much more painful for me than regular folks. It's my bad luck to meet this kind of evil employer. I will definitely move out of this company after GC. I just worry this evil employer may do harm to me when they know I quit from them. They are control freak and never gave me any details of any paperwork.


It's fine, job duties are similar and it's just promotion, ur EVL correctly indicates the progression and continued employment.

[Jonty Rhodes]

Nishant, how are you? thank you for your input.

These two titles are almost the same. I don't know any difference between them, but the attorney applied my 3rd H1B and he put this title. These attorneys and CEO never told me anything. They never told me it's promotion or not. I do the same thing in the past 8 years. I have to follow whatever they say.

I hope my GC journey can get a happy ending. Indeed it was much more painful for me than regular folks. It's my bad luck to meet this kind of evil employer. I will definitely move out of this company after GC. I just worry this evil employer may do harm to me when they know I quit from them. They are control freak and never gave me any details of any paperwork.

Yay, this is a great news. Happy for you, my friend. Have fun this Christmas. Hope you get your GC soon and able to change this job for good.

[nishant2200]

I never forgotten u my friend, all the personal help n input u gave me during tense time waiting.

Good things will come to us, I have no doubt. I came here to this country with two bags, surviving on 2.99 dollar subway lunch and snickers for dinner, studied hard, worked night shifts. I have complete faith in future.

3 months work after GC, then u can leave, my attorney told me. Amen.


Nishant, how are you? thank you for your input.

These two titles are almost the same. I don't know any difference between them, but the attorney applied my 3rd H1B and he put this title. These attorneys and CEO never told me anything. They never told me it's promotion or not. I do the same thing in the past 8 years. I have to follow whatever they say.

I hope my GC journey can get a happy ending. Indeed it was much more painful for me than regular folks. It's my bad luck to meet this kind of evil employer. I will definitely move out of this company after GC. I just worry this evil employer may do harm to me when they know I quit from them. They are control freak and never gave me any details of any paperwork.

[qblogfan]

thank you for your note, Merry Christmas to you!


Yay, this is a great news. Happy for you, my friend. Have fun this Christmas. Hope you get your GC soon and able to change this job for good.

[qblogfan]

My friend, I have the same experience with you. I came here with two suit cases and 2000 dollars. I had 1 dollar hot dog as my lunch most of the time when I was in school.

I hope we all good luck and get GC. I will keep you guys posted.

Thanks again for your advice and support!



I never forgotten u my friend, all the personal help n input u gave me during tense time waiting.

Good things will come to us, I have no doubt. I came here to this country with two bags, surviving on 2.99 dollar subway lunch and snickers for dinner, studied hard, worked night shifts. I have complete faith in future.

3 months work after GC, then u can leave, my attorney told me. Amen.

[gkjppp]

Happy Holidays & AdvanceNew Year wishes to GURUS & all of you....Hoping this New Year bring Peace & Happiness to all of you :)

Wishing you all A Very Happy new year and merry X-Mas. Hope new year brings GC's to all of you, if not atleast EAD/AP's.

[pdmay2008]

I wish all of you Happy Christmas and New Year. I Wish every one get current soon.


Thank you all for your support during this long wait.

Going to file my 485 on Jan 1 2012.

[qesehmk]

in the interest of this thread moved all recent non related posts to http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?317-Lies-damn-lies-and-pappu-claims .

merry christmas friends and happy holidays.

[imdeng]

QBF - Very happy for you - I am sure everyone here is rooting for you. Your employer is the worst - I don't know how they can exploit people like this. Anyways - be vigilant - they might try to pull some technicality or other to delay the process. Try to at least get a copy of the filing, especially get an EVL and keep it as a backup so that you can file 485 by yourself if they delay. Fortunately, you have at least until the end of Jan to finish the process. Good luck.



Q, thank you very much! I appreciate your input.

I fought with the company for many different times, so they started this process this week, but I am not sure whether they can submit my files before the end of this year.

What I did was: I stopped showing up in office for almost one week. I told my direct boss that I would not continue to work there without 485 filed. Also our project was in danger, but now it can last for at least one more year or so. Finally they decided to file 485 for me. It's so much pain to deal with these people.

This process has been full of frustration and humiliation. As a foreign labor, we are under the company's mercy. I don't like this kind of feeling. It's a terrible feeling indeed. I wish I can get over this crap and have a happy ending on this thing.

[veni001]

Guys, finally the evil employer decided to file 485 for me after fighting for one month. It was a crazy process.

Now I got a draft version of 485. I noticed one problem: when my I140 was filed, they put my title as "Lead Analyst" and now they put "Senior Analyst" title on my I485. On my G325A form, they put 2003-2010 Lead Analyst, 2010-present, Senior Analyst. My third H1B (2010-2013) had the tile "Senior Analyst". The job duties are exactly the same. Will this be a problem? If they send out a RFE, will they ask why the title on 485 is different from the approved I140? Indeed these two job titles have the same job duties, nothing different.

Congratulations QBF!

Your freedom is juts few months away .

[mesan123]

Congrats Qblogfan...ATleast from here hoping your I-485 will go smooth....Just few more months for u to be greened


Nishant, how are you? thank you for your input.

These two titles are almost the same. I don't know any difference between them, but the attorney applied my 3rd H1B and he put this title. These attorneys and CEO never told me anything. They never told me it's promotion or not. I do the same thing in the past 8 years. I have to follow whatever they say.

I hope my GC journey can get a happy ending. Indeed it was much more painful for me than regular folks. It's my bad luck to meet this kind of evil employer. I will definitely move out of this company after GC. I just worry this evil employer may do harm to me when they know I quit from them. They are control freak and never gave me any details of any paperwork.

[Spectator]

Guys, finally the evil employer decided to file 485 for me after fighting for one month. It was a crazy process.

Now I got a draft version of 485. I noticed one problem: when my I140 was filed, they put my title as "Lead Analyst" and now they put "Senior Analyst" title on my I485. On my G325A form, they put 2003-2010 Lead Analyst, 2010-present, Senior Analyst. My third H1B (2010-2013) had the tile "Senior Analyst". The job duties are exactly the same. Will this be a problem? If they send out a RFE, will they ask why the title on 485 is different from the approved I140? Indeed these two job titles have the same job duties, nothing different.qblogfan,

I am happy to finally hear the good news!

The change in Job Title is of no consequence, since you say the job duties are unchanged.

[srd4gc]

nishant, did you get FP notices from NSC? I am still waiting...



It's fine, job duties are similar and it's just promotion, ur EVL correctly indicates the progression and continued employment.

[TeddyKoochu]

Guys, finally the evil employer decided to file 485 for me after fighting for one month. It was a crazy process.

Now I got a draft version of 485. I noticed one problem: when my I140 was filed, they put my title as "Lead Analyst" and now they put "Senior Analyst" title on my I485. On my G325A form, they put 2003-2010 Lead Analyst, 2010-present, Senior Analyst. My third H1B (2010-2013) had the tile "Senior Analyst". The job duties are exactly the same. Will this be a problem? If they send out a RFE, will they ask why the title on 485 is different from the approved I140? Indeed these two job titles have the same job duties, nothing different.

QBF, congratulations, finally freedom is in sight for you. You are an asset to this forum. The I140 job title is the future job title as requested as of that time, as long as a same or similar job title with similar kind of duties, work profile and responsibilities is submitted on the 485 EVL it should be fine. The G325 form is more of a log for the last 5 years. All the best, keep pushing your employer and attorney for the filing sooner. Iam sure once you get greened your current employer itself will start treating you differently and yes the world is open after that anyway. Good luck and all the best.

[frenzyrider]

Guys, need an immediate help.

My spouse is the primary applicant on our 485/EAD/AP application. The application is pending with USCIS. However, there is a funeral and she needs to travel to India within next 48 hours. I know that one should not travel on a pending AP due to risk of abandonment but she has a H1 stamped (validity till 2013). From what I have heard one can re-enter US if you a have a valid H1 even if you have a pending AOS/AP, etc.

Does someone know about it?

TIA
-Frenzy

[vp5856]

Gurus, any thoughts on this -
I have gone thru trackitt dashboard/postings with recently approved I-485. I hardly see any cases of approval with the filings based on VB Sep11 (PD 15APR07) and after.
Given I-485 processing takes 3-5 months, wondering if QSP/monthly SO is actually happening; given 07/07 pending approvals getting cleared slowly though.

Do you thing I will be approved in Feb/March (Q2-12 QSP) or later (Q4-12 no QSP) in the summer or early Q1/13 ?

My details -
FD 11/02/11.
ND 11/08/11.
PD 09/22/07.
EAD and AP 12/10/11.
FP scheduled on 01/05/12 (FP appt letter 12/10/11).

[desi4green]

Hi All,

Wanted to let you all know that we got our GC's today. Here are the details.

Dec 16 - Card Production Ordered
Dec 17 - Soft LUD
Dec 20 - Decision Email and State changed to decision
Dec 21 - Got welcome notice in mail
Dec 24 - Got our cards

For those wondering how,

We had two cases (EB3 - 2005 and EB2-2007). We were part of July 2007 fiasco and submitted 485 for the EB3 case. Last year we got an RFE to pick one of the two cases. We picked the 2007 EB2 as dates were moving faster.

On Dec 1, became current so submitted SR asking if we were preadjudicated, answer was yes and office was very nice to go ahead and ask for status from NSC. Dec 14th got a reply that wait like everyone else in the line. Dec 16th got the approval.

Wish u all the very best of luck. Thanks for all the helps that Q and folks have provided.

Thanks

[suninphx]

Hi All,

Wanted to let you all know that we got our GC's today. Here are the details.

Dec 16 - Card Production Ordered
Dec 17 - Soft LUD
Dec 20 - Decision Email and State changed to decision
Dec 21 - Got welcome notice in mail
Dec 24 - Got our cards

For those wondering how,

We had two cases (EB3 - 2005 and EB2-2007). We were part of July 2007 fiasco and submitted 485 for the EB3 case. Last year we got an RFE to pick one of the two cases. We picked the 2007 EB2 as dates were moving faster.

On Dec 1, became current so submitted SR asking if we were preadjudicated, answer was yes and office was very nice to go ahead and ask for status from NSC. Dec 14th got a reply that wait like everyone else in the line. Dec 16th got the approval.

Wish u all the very best of luck. Thanks for all the helps that Q and folks have provided.

Thanks

Congratulations!

Seems they have visa numbers available.

[desi4green]

Thanks. Yes based on the conversations earlier, I was not expecting but I guess lucks on my side.

[vp5856]

Congratulations desi4green!
suninphx, probably you answered my question, right?

Thanks!

[qesehmk]

Frenzy .... yes she can reenter on H1. No worries whatsoever.


Guys, need an immediate help.

My spouse is the primary applicant on our 485/EAD/AP application. The application is pending with USCIS. However, there is a funeral and she needs to travel to India within next 48 hours. I know that one should not travel on a pending AP due to risk of abandonment but she has a H1 stamped (validity till 2013). From what I have heard one can re-enter US if you a have a valid H1 even if you have a pending AOS/AP, etc.

Does someone know about it?

TIA
-Frenzy


Hi All,

Wanted to let you all know that we got our GC's today. Here are the details.

Dec 16 - Card Production Ordered
Dec 17 - Soft LUD
Dec 20 - Decision Email and State changed to decision
Dec 21 - Got welcome notice in mail
Dec 24 - Got our cards

For those wondering how,

We had two cases (EB3 - 2005 and EB2-2007). We were part of July 2007 fiasco and submitted 485 for the EB3 case. Last year we got an RFE to pick one of the two cases. We picked the 2007 EB2 as dates were moving faster.

On Dec 1, became current so submitted SR asking if we were preadjudicated, answer was yes and office was very nice to go ahead and ask for status from NSC. Dec 14th got a reply that wait like everyone else in the line. Dec 16th got the approval.

Wish u all the very best of luck. Thanks for all the helps that Q and folks have provided.

Thanks
desi - congratulations. Enjoy the rest of the year .... take off!

[suninphx]

Guys,

Another stab at trackitt data . Here are I485(primary) number of applications for EB2I

Jan - July 2007 --- 775

Aug07- Mar 08 ----378 ( if we can add another say 50 for remaining days of March it becomes ~425).

so thats almost 45% less filings. We can attribute some percentage of it to people loosing interest and not updating trackitt, people who did not file yet etc. But still decline seems to be high.

Just thought of sharing while we wait for actual data.

[suninphx]

Congratulations desi4green!
suninphx, probably you answered my question, right?

Thanks!

vp5856- common understanding on this forum is that QSP has been deployed.

[vp5856]

vp5856- common understanding on this forum is that QSP has been deployed.

Thank you, suninphx.
My heart goes to all new filers, particularly to those with PD post 07/2007 and early 2008. I know what you are/were going thru without...
- vp5856

[Pdmar08]

Thank you, suninphx.
My heart goes to all new filers, particularly to those with PD post 07/2007 and early 2008. I know what you are/were going thru without...
- vp5856

Vp,
This sounds tragic. What did I miss?

[nishant2200]

nishant, did you get FP notices from NSC? I am still waiting...

Nope, let's see the Post 485 filing thread started by our friend leo. I would also advise following the trackitt thread of people who filed in December and for a hint of things to come, the people who filed in november thread.

You will see on those, two people just claiming that dec filers and NSC, and they got FP notice. But mostly if you see people who filed in Nov thread, for NSC, it is taking at least a month after the receipt notice date, to send FP notice. And EAD/AP is taking like 40-50 days from notice date. Hopefully they ramp it up.

[nishant2200]

You will be greened this FY for sure, that's only thing with most guarantee.

If dates do not retrogress, you may be greened during Feb/March and further, if dates do retrogress, I do expect them to be at your PD level in Q4.

QSP is certainly being done, further monthly fine tuning in that would be totally on agency's discretion. for example in Q1 of this FY, they really needed a precise fine tuning, and they all worked hand in hand to do it.


Gurus, any thoughts on this -
I have gone thru trackitt dashboard/postings with recently approved I-485. I hardly see any cases of approval with the filings based on VB Sep11 (PD 15APR07) and after.
Given I-485 processing takes 3-5 months, wondering if QSP/monthly SO is actually happening; given 07/07 pending approvals getting cleared slowly though.

Do you thing I will be approved in Feb/March (Q2-12 QSP) or later (Q4-12 no QSP) in the summer or early Q1/13 ?

My details -
FD 11/02/11.
ND 11/08/11.
PD 09/22/07.
EAD and AP 12/10/11.
FP scheduled on 01/05/12 (FP appt letter 12/10/11).

[nishant2200]

sun, I don't know if this was always like this, but I find it most annoying that many people on trackitt, whose posts I find of interest, and then click on their profile to see their case details, have not added it.


Guys,

Another stab at trackitt data . Here are I485(primary) number of applications for EB2I

Jan - July 2007 --- 775

Aug07- Mar 08 ----378 ( if we can add another say 50 for remaining days of March it becomes ~425).

so thats almost 45% less filings. We can attribute some percentage of it to people loosing interest and not updating trackitt, people who did not file yet etc. But still decline seems to be high.

Just thought of sharing while we wait for actual data.

[nishant2200]

Congratulations!

Seems they have visa numbers available.

Yes, that is a good observation.

I really hope that demand from other categories remain low to permit dates remaining current to a greater expanse and CO continues QSP happily. It is like the freeways of Los Angeles, better to make as much distance while there is a lane that can be passed onto, a quick sprint that can be made, you never know when you hit the 8 lane full 10mph.

[suninphx]

sun, I don't know if this was always like this, but I find it most annoying that many people on trackitt, whose posts I find of interest, and then click on their profile to see their case details, have not added it.

Yeah my assumption is % of those set of people would be common factor across different time periods.

[Spectator]

Guys,

Another stab at trackitt data . Here are I485(primary) number of applications for EB2I

Jan - July 2007 --- 775

Aug07- Mar 08 ----378 ( if we can add another say 50 for remaining days of March it becomes ~425).

so thats almost 45% less filings. We can attribute some percentage of it to people loosing interest and not updating trackitt, people who did not file yet etc. But still decline seems to be high.

Just thought of sharing while we wait for actual data.suninphx,

Thanks for sharing. I agree that the Trackitt % may change and it therefore makes the data less reliable. In fact it is very difficult at present to know what conversion factor to use.

Here's a different perspective.

I looked at the data with USCIS Received dates from October 2011 onwards and by the PD range made current in each VB. I have looked at Primary applicants only, because Trackitt is not reliable for Dependent numbers.

October VB - 92 cases
November VB - 225 cases
December VB - 151 cases

I also looked at when the cases were added to the Tracker by the user for the October VB movement.

The average date is 19 days after the USCIS Receipt Date, the median is 14 days after the USCIS Receipt Date and the Max to date is 72 days after USCIS Receipt Date.

Within the range that conversion factors were bouncing around last year, the number of Trackitt applications for October and November VB movements are reasonably consistent with those expected for an OR of 0.8. It is not possible to be very precise about this yet.

The December figures are low, but since the time to add a case to Trackitt after USCIS Receipt may be 14-19 days, they may well only represent a fraction of the Trackitt cases we will eventually see for movement in the December VB.

I hope this helps in thinking about the subject.

[suninphx]

suninphx,

Thanks for sharing. I agree that the Trackitt % may change and it therefore makes the data less reliable. In fact it is very difficult at present to know what conversion factor to use.

Here's a different perspective.

I looked at the data with USCIS Received dates from October 2011 on wards and by the PD range made current in each VB. I have looked at Primary applicants only, because Trackitt is not reliable for Dependent numbers.

October VB - 92 cases
November VB - 225 cases
December VB - 151 cases

I also looked at when the cases were added to the Tracker by the user for the October VB movement.

The average date is 19 days after the USCIS Receipt Date, the median is 14 days after the USCIS Receipt Date and the Max to date is 72 days after USCIS Receipt Date.

Within the range that conversion factors were bouncing around last year, the number of Trackitt applications for October and November VB movements are reasonably consistent with those expected for an OR of 0.8. It is not possible to be very precise about this yet.

The December figures are low, but since the time to add a case to Trackitt after USCIS Receipt may be 14-19 days, they may well only represent a fraction of the Trackitt cases we will eventually see for movement in the December VB.

I hope this helps in thinking about the subject.

Sure that helps. Specially time lag calculations Thanks Spec!

I should have added one more factor which is number of PERMS for this time period. I believe that number of PERMS for Aug 07- Mar 08 is more than Jan 07- Jul 07. I will add china figures to I-485calculations and then post those figures along with IC PERM numbers.

[suninphx]

Sure that helps. Specially time lag calculations Thanks Spec!

I should have added one more factor which is number of PERMS for this time period. I believe that number of PERMS for Aug 07- Mar 08 is more than Jan 07- Jul 07. I will add china figures to I-485calculations and then post those figures along with IC PERM numbers.

Added PERM figures for IC


Time Period PERMS(I+C) I485 (I+C)
---------------- -------------- ---------------

Jan 07-Jul 07 17093 827 (775+52)

Aug 07-Mar08 19767 393 (378+15)

[iatiam]

Off topic. Please delete if not appropriate. Found this article in CNN,
http://www.cnn.com/2011/12/24/us/immigration-quagmire/index.html

My blood boils when people come here illegally and then complain that they don't get hand-outs. I have been here 8 years legally, pay taxes and still don't even have an EAD. Not sure what these people want - a US citizenship.

[qesehmk]

iatiam, unfortunately life is not fair. Life is not a straightline arrow. It has its ebbs and flows. So I agree to the "unfairness" feeling that you express.

The way "illegal" immigration is being targeted today, tomorrow any legal immigration will be targeted. The extreme right in US, when they say they are opposed to illegal immigration - are in truth opposed to any immigration. "Illegal" is just a codeword to rally their troops.

But at the end of the day, we need to look at immigration as a humane issue. Every immigrant has a story and a very powerful one. Yes.... some get more lucky than others. I wouldn't deny that. But as far as I am concerned, this part of the world always belonged to those who ventured and conquered. Where was the definition of legality then? Did anybody get any visa from Cherokees or Navajos? Or did anybody get any visa from Mexico when Texas and California were annexed. So I would let the law deal with the definition of legality.

Just my 2 cents. Don't mean to criticize.



Off topic. Please delete if not appropriate. Found this article in CNN,
http://www.cnn.com/2011/12/24/us/immigration-quagmire/index.html

My blood boils when people come here illegally and then complain that they don't get hand-outs. I have been here 8 years legally, pay taxes and still don't even have an EAD. Not sure what these people want - a US citizenship.

[asankaran]

You are absolutely correct Q. It shows the depth of knowledge you have in this subject. I recently attended advocacy effort and when I really saw the human face behind the mere EB2/EB3 folks it was really moving. Some of the EB3 folks are really old and do not have any clue what the reality is. Some of the families have kids who are close to getting aged out and can no longer be dependents on their parents. This is really not fair.

I initially had hopes on "Republicans" but now I feel "Democrats" are better in this. As long as any politician doesn't understand the human nature behind this problem and they take about legal, illegal it's absolute B.S. You know why "Reagan" was able to get America out of recession and create more jobs..The single reason was "immigration"..


iatiam, unfortunately life is not fair. Life is not a straightline arrow. It has its ebbs and flows. So I agree to the "unfairness" feeling that you express.

The way "illegal" immigration is being targeted today, tomorrow any legal immigration will be targeted. The extreme right in US, when they say they are opposed to illegal immigration - are in truth opposed to any immigration. "Illegal" is just a codeword to rally their troops.

But at the end of the day, we need to look at immigration as a humane issue. Every immigrant has a story and a very powerful one. Yes.... some get more lucky than others. I wouldn't deny that. But as far as I am concerned, this part of the world always belonged to those who ventured and conquered. Where was the definition of legality then? Did anybody get any visa from Cherokees or Navajos? Or did anybody get any visa from Mexico when Texas and California were annexed. So I would let the law deal with the definition of legality.

Just my 2 cents. Don't mean to criticize.

[qesehmk]

Thanks asankaran. Some of my friends who took an early lead in life (!!) have kids going to college. Still waiting for a GC. That's very talented people become hostage to GC. So immigration has turned into slavery. Good to hear that you were moved by seeing the same. Hopefully Obama's second term will be quite bold and better for immigration. And hopefully even before that 3012 is passed.


You are absolutely correct Q. It shows the depth of knowledge you have in this subject. I recently attended advocacy effort and when I really saw the human face behind the mere EB2/EB3 folks it was really moving. Some of the EB3 folks are really old and do not have any clue what the reality is. Some of the families have kids who are close to getting aged out and can no longer be dependents on their parents. This is really not fair.

I initially had hopes on "Republicans" but now I feel "Democrats" are better in this. As long as any politician doesn't understand the human nature behind this problem and they take about legal, illegal it's absolute B.S. You know why "Reagan" was able to get America out of recession and create more jobs..The single reason was "immigration"..

[veni001]

iatiam, unfortunately life is not fair. Life is not a straightline arrow. It has its ebbs and flows. So I agree to the "unfairness" feeling that you express.

The way "illegal" immigration is being targeted today, tomorrow any legal immigration will be targeted. The extreme right in US, when they say they are opposed to illegal immigration - are in truth opposed to any immigration. "Illegal" is just a codeword to rally their troops.

But at the end of the day, we need to look at immigration as a humane issue. Every immigrant has a story and a very powerful one. Yes.... some get more lucky than others. I wouldn't deny that. But as far as I am concerned, this part of the world always belonged to those who ventured and conquered. Where was the definition of legality then? Did anybody get any visa from Cherokees or Navajos? Or did anybody get any visa from Mexico when Texas and California were annexed. So I would let the law deal with the definition of legality.

Just my 2 cents. Don't mean to criticize.

Q,
Very well said.

Merry Christmas all forum members and visitors.

[grnwtg]

True Q, Sad part is we are at mercy of these officials who are once immigrants( and many of their anscesters are illegal/murderers)


iatiam, unfortunately life is not fair. Life is not a straightline arrow. It has its ebbs and flows. So I agree to the "unfairness" feeling that you express.

The way "illegal" immigration is being targeted today, tomorrow any legal immigration will be targeted. The extreme right in US, when they say they are opposed to illegal immigration - are in truth opposed to any immigration. "Illegal" is just a codeword to rally their troops.

But at the end of the day, we need to look at immigration as a humane issue. Every immigrant has a story and a very powerful one. Yes.... some get more lucky than others. I wouldn't deny that. But as far as I am concerned, this part of the world always belonged to those who ventured and conquered. Where was the definition of legality then? Did anybody get any visa from Cherokees or Navajos? Or did anybody get any visa from Mexico when Texas and California were annexed. So I would let the law deal with the definition of legality.

Just my 2 cents. Don't mean to criticize.

[qesehmk]

yes. one sure feels helpless. And i think iatiam expressed the same frustration above that a person who plays by rule feels.


..we are at mercy of these officials who are once immigrants

[kd2008]

We were trying to get a handle on demand destruction from Aug 2007 onwards. One idea may be to put a poll on this forum and find out if people abandoned their gc process and returned to india: http://www.r2iclubforums.com/forums/forum.php

Browsing through the forum may also give an idea. I haven't had the time to do it. Hence suggesting it here. may be some one will volunteer.

[vizcard]

Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year to all. I imagine it is going to be pretty happy for the late 2007 and 2008 folks. Here's to 2009 and later getting good news during 2012.

[enigma]

Merry X'mas and Happy New Year to all!! Hope the new year brings happy endings to our GC journey...

[randomax]

Gents - i'm a newbie to this board and have found the info very helpful till now. I posted this in the "485 and CP-related topics" but have not gotten a reply yet. If anybody can address these questions, i'd be grateful. Alternatively, please point me to the right forum... thanks.

"Hi All - relative newbie here and had a question regarding switching jobs. My PD is june-2010 (Indian, EB2) and I have a potential job offer that I won't take up till April 2012. I have two questions:

1) Maintaining PD: I am fairly certain I can maintain my PD even if I switch jobs. My job profile is going to be fairly similar, but are there any caveats here? Is it more or less a given or are there situations where this does not happen?

2) becoming current: although I think its pretty unlikely but what happens if I become current before a new labor can be filed after I move. for example, I file for labor in june 2012 and i become current in may 2012?

3) how long after filing for 485 before i am no longer tied to my employer?

thanks very much for your thoughts. "

thank you.

[Pdmar08]

It is pretty straightforward.

Without filing I485 with the current employer or without waiting for 6 months after filing with the current employer, if you change your job, you have to restart the PERM process. Your PD is retained if you work in a similar field. It is assumed your I140 is approved in this case. It is also assumed you have a copy of your approved I140 which will be needed for your new PERM application. The only danger here is that your new application may be denied for whatever unforeseen reasons or end up with RFEs and a substantial delay.

If you file 485 with your current employer, you must wait for 6 months before switching in order NOT TO do the whole PERM again. In this case, you should fill a form called AC21 to keep your current green card application alive. I am not sure if this process is automatic, and under what conditions, AC21 might end up in rejection.

I think there is very little chance for the June 2010 PD to become current before fall 2013. In any case, even if that PD were to become current now, if your new offer was substantially better than the current job, I would take it. Why? Because you would be getting a similar substantially better offer (theoretically in an utopian world) when you get your EAD anyway. If you are getting that offer sooner, why leave that chance? If you are working in a similar field, retention of the PD is usually not problematic. Of course it is assumed that you are confident enough that your new PERM will be approved without any issues.

sportsfan33,
Related calrifying question.
Say i need to switch jobs 6 months after applying for AOS using AC21, is the job switch on H1b or EAD?
I know that it is recommended that we keep the H1 status till we get GC but the concern is if AC21 is on EAD then in case of denail, the choices are minimal.

thanks!

[qesehmk]

AC21 doesn't distinguish between H1 or EAD. Both only "legally" enable the candidate to take up a job. AC21 only looks at whether the "new" job is "same or similar" to the one mentioned in 485 application.

Long story short .... dont worry about H1 or EAD. If I were you .... I would transfer my H1 after taking up the new job as a backup just in case 485 was rejected for whatever reason - whether related to AC21 or not.

p.s. - Just to be clear if AC21 fails then so the underlying 485 will be denied - which will make the EAD void (not sure if instantaneously or after the period ends. My gut feel is instantaneously.) So if one were to switch jobs and transfers H1 then at least you keep your job in case AC21 fails.


sportsfan33,
Related calrifying question.
Say i need to switch jobs 6 months after applying for AOS using AC21, is the job switch on H1b or EAD?
I know that it is recommended that we keep the H1 status till we get GC but the concern is if AC21 is on EAD then in case of denail, the choices are minimal.

thanks!

[Pdmar08]

AC21 doesn't distinguish between H1 or EAD. Both only "legally" enable the candidate to take up a job. AC21 only looks at whether the "new" job is "same or similar" to the one mentioned in 485 application.

Long story short .... dont worry about H1 or EAD. If I were you .... I would transfer my H1 after taking up the new job as a backup just in case 485 was rejected for whatever reason - whether related to AC21 or not.

p.s. - Just to be clear if AC21 fails then so the underlying 485 will be denied - which will make the EAD void (not sure if instantaneously or after the period ends. My gut feel is instantaneously.) So if one were to switch jobs and transfers H1 then at least you keep your job in case AC21 fails.

Makes sense, thanks Q!

[march272010]

heard from few of friends who applied PERMS recently in EB2 , perms are getting approved mostly if the salaries is above 100K only..how far is it true?

[trackitgc]

forgive me for posting my scenario here ... admin's please free to move this to a diff thread if needed.
My scenario is as follows: I have a Master's degree in CS (graduated 2005) & Bachelor's degree in CS. When I joined (joined in 2007) my current company for the title that I joined under was qualified for EB2 (now they changed the job desc on this and moved to EB3 Category). The company folks said they'll file my case within 1 yr but with layoff's etc they could not file it then. In the mean time my job duties changed in 2009 (my H1 job desc was updated as my job duties changed). My current title is currently qualified for EB2 but my case was filed under EB3 last yr (coz the attorney said that based on my original title that I joined the company). Is there a way for me to file under EB2, the problem is my company doesn't want to talk with outside counsel's and they just stick to one law firm. I also currently have a s/w patent application pending (filed in 2009) with a high possibility of getting approved .... Please help me .... on my situation !!!

[gkjppp]

Can you please put the source? Where did you hear this?

Prevailing wage is location specific. Salaries in the Silicon Valley are quite high for example, but so is the median home price. $100K in Northern California is usually equivalent to $50-60K in the Midwest.

My company usually starts an EB2 application at around $80K and most of them are successful (we are based in the Washington DC metropolitan area). It's not written anywhere, just a personal observation. They specifically do *not* start the EB2 application unless you spend a good 2 to 3 years at your position *regardless* of your starting salary (so even if you started at $80K, your EB2 PERM could only start after a minimum of 2 years). Finally, they will not consider EB2 unless you had a US Masters in a STEM field. Although you see many threads on trackitt with people with bachelors only degrees getting through EB2, my company lawyer had once told me it was nearly impossible to get the application approved without a US Masters.

as sportsfan33 said, wages are location dependant. EB2 is based on requirements.ideally BS + 5 years progressive work exp or US MS.EB2 is definetely possible with BS+5 years.i know lot of folks who succeeded in getting PERM done in Eb2.

[qesehmk]

First - its the employer who makes the decision to file under EB2 or EB3. The candidate has no say - from legal standpoint. But you can of course choose an employer and a job that will qualify for an EB2 path.

Its quite clear to me that they want to file under EB3 to retain you with GC processing going on.

The only options I can think of are:

1. Talk to the manager and explain to him that you will be gone if not upgraded to EB2.
2. Find another employer who can file EB2 for you.

I am sorry. But it seems already sufficient time is wasted. And I dont want to give you any false hope.


forgive me for posting my scenario here ... admin's please free to move this to a diff thread if needed.
My scenario is as follows: I have a Master's degree in CS (graduated 2005) & Bachelor's degree in CS. When I joined (joined in 2007) my current company for the title that I joined under was qualified for EB2 (now they changed the job desc on this and moved to EB3 Category). The company folks said they'll file my case within 1 yr but with layoff's etc they could not file it then. In the mean time my job duties changed in 2009 (my H1 job desc was updated as my job duties changed). My current title is currently qualified for EB2 but my case was filed under EB3 last yr (coz the attorney said that based on my original title that I joined the company). Is there a way for me to file under EB2, the problem is my company doesn't want to talk with outside counsel's and they just stick to one law firm. I also currently have a s/w patent application pending (filed in 2009) with a high possibility of getting approved .... Please help me .... on my situation !!!

[Kanmani]

Memo: Educational and Experience Requirements for Employment-Based Second Preference (EB-2) Immigrants


MEMORANDUM FOR All Service Center Directors



SUBJECT: Educational and Experience Requirements for Employment-Based Second Preference (EB-2) Immigrants

This memorandum addresses issues relating to the Adjudicator’s Field Manual , Appendix 22-1. Chapter 22 provides guidance on employment-based immigrant petitions. This memorandum is being released as an appendix to insure complete Service-wide dissemination. The policies outlined within this document will eventually be incorporated within the text of Chapter 22 of the Adjudicator’s Field Manual.

Background

In pertinent part, section 203(b)(2) of the Immigration and Nationality Act (the Act) provides immigrant classification to members of the professions holding advanced degrees or their equivalent and whose services are sought by an employer in the United States.

Petitions seeking the classification of alien beneficiaries as EB-2 advanced degree professionals present a number of issues for Service Center adjudicators. This memorandum provides guidance regarding such decisions.

What is an Advanced Degree?

An advanced degree is a U.S. academic or professional degree or a foreign equivalent degree above the baccalaureate level. 1

What is the Equivalent of an Advanced Degree?

The equivalent of an advanced degree is either a U.S. baccalaureate or foreign equivalent degree followed by at least five years of progressive experience in the specialty. Consequently, an alien beneficiary who does not actually hold an advanced degree may still qualify as an EB-2 professional if he or she has the equivalent of an advanced degree.

There are several ways in which an alien seeking EB-2 classification may satisfy the advanced- degree requirement. The simplest is by possessing a U.S. academic or professional degree above the level of baccalaureate. In the alternative, the foreign equivalent of such a degree is equally acceptable.

An alien with a U.S. or foreign equivalent baccalaureate degree who does not possess an advanced degree may still meet this requirement if the baccalaureate-level degree is followed by at least five years of “progressive experience” in the specialty. 2

What Elements Must Be Established before an EB-2 Petition for an Advanced Degree Professional Can Be Approved?

Two critical elements must be established before an advanced degree EB-2 petition can be approved. First, the position itself must require a member of the professions holding an advanced degree. Second, the alien must possess an advanced degree as shown by a master’s degree or its equivalent. The threshold issue regarding the position itself appears to be the most troublesome in adjudicating EB-2 petitions for advanced degree professionals.

The key to making this determination is found on Form ETA-750 Part A. This section of the application for alien labor certification, “Offer of Employment,” describes the terms and conditions of the job offered. An adjudicator must review the job requirements contained in blocks 14 and 15 of the ETA- 750 and determine whether the position requires an advanced degree professional.

Deciding whether the position requires an advanced degree professional is independent of whether the alien beneficiary is himself an advanced degree professional. If the job itself does not require an advanced degree professional, the petition must be denied, even if the alien beneficiary actually is an advanced degree professional. Likewise, the petition must be denied if the alien beneficiary is not an advanced degree professional, even if the job itself requires an advanced degree professional.

Whether the alien beneficiary actually possesses the advanced degree should be demonstrated by evidence in the form of a transcript from the institution that granted the advanced degree. An adjudicator must similarly consider the baccalaureate transcript and the alien's post-baccalaureate experience for the alien beneficiary claiming the equivalent to an advanced degree.

Does the Job To Be Filled by the Alien Beneficiary Require an Advanced Degree?

A petitioner seeking classification for an EB-2 advanced degree professional must clearly demonstrate that the position requires a member of the professions holding an advanced degree. In other words, blocks 14 and 15 of the ETA-750 must establish that the position requires an employee with either a master’s degree or a U.S. baccalaureate or foreign equivalent degree followed by at least five years of progressive experience in the specialty.

It should be emphasized that the mere absence of the word “progressive” from blocks 14 and 15 on the ETA-750 is not grounds for denial of the petition if the required experience is in fact progressive in nature. Adjudicators should examine the nature of the experience required for the position as described in block 13 of the ETA-750 in order to determine whether such experience is progressive.

What exactly is Progressive Experience?

“Progressive experience” is not defined by statute or regulation. Its plain meaning within the context of EB-2 adjudications is relatively simple: employment experience that reveals progress, moves forward, and advances toward increasingly complex or responsible duties. In short, progressive experience is demonstrated by advancing levels of responsibility and knowledge in the specialty.

Recognizing progressive experience in blocks 14 and 15 of the ETA-750, however, is not so simple. Much of the uncertainty concerning such determinations involves petitions for highly technical positions, which invariably describe required experience in highly technical terms. Such descriptions may be difficult to understand for anyone outside that specific industry.

Adjudicators who encounter these types of descriptions should request that petitioners provide, to the extent possible, plain-English explanations of the experience required. Such descriptions may take the form of a supplemental statement filed with the Service Centers indicating why five years of post- baccalaureate and progressive experience would be necessary to perform successfully the duties set forth in highly technical job descriptions. The supplemental statement should be an affidavit (or other st atement under penalty of perjury) from some person within the petitioning firm who has relevant knowledge concerning the minimum acceptable qualifications for the position involved in the Form I-140 . It is incumbent upon the petitioner to describe the position offered in such a way so that an adjudicator can reasonably determine whether the job actually requires an advanced degree or, in the alternative, five years of post-baccalaureate experience that is progressive in nature.

It is reasonable to infer that highly technical positions are progressive in nature due to the constant state of change in their respective industries. This is not to say, however, that five years of post- baccalaureate experience in a highly technical position automatically translates to an advanced degree in every case. As with any adjudication, a petition seeking classification for an EB-2 advanced degree professional should be decided on a case-by-case basis.

How can these Requirements be Demonstrated?

The terms, “MA,” “ MS,” “Master’s Degree or Equivalent” and “Bachelor’s degree with five years of progressive experience,” all equate to the educational requirements of a member of the professions holding an advanced degree. The threshold for granting EB-2 classification will be satisfied when any of these terms appear in block 14.

It is also important to read the ETA-750 as a whole. In particular, if the education requirement in block 14 includes an asterisk (*) or other footnote, the information included in the note must be considered in determining whether the educational requirement, as a whole, demonstrates that an advanced degree or the equivalent is the minimum acceptable qualification for the position.

As long as the minimum requirement for the job offered is master’s degree or the equivalent, the position should be found to require a member of the professions holding an advanced degree. This is true even if several variations of this requirement are stated.

[immitime]

Regarding PERM :- DOL website link.
http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.gov/perm.cfm

[maggie]

Can you please put the source? Where did you hear this?

Prevailing wage is location specific. Salaries in the Silicon Valley are quite high for example, but so is the median home price. $100K in Northern California is usually equivalent to $50-60K in the Midwest.

My company usually starts an EB2 application at around $80K and most of them are successful (we are based in the Washington DC metropolitan area). It's not written anywhere, just a personal observation. They specifically do *not* start the EB2 application unless you spend a good 2 to 3 years at your position *regardless* of your starting salary (so even if you started at $80K, your EB2 PERM could only start after a minimum of 2 years). Finally, they will not consider EB2 unless you had a US Masters in a STEM field. Although you see many threads on trackitt with people with bachelors only degrees getting through EB2, my company lawyer had once told me it was nearly impossible to get the application approved without a US Masters.

Not sure about the legality but here is the rule of thumb that my company attorney shared. If you are in a stable job and going to stay for a while, try to get as high number on perm as possible. Of course the number should have enough margin with salary, just in case. Most of the perm that I have seen with my company are in the range of 95+. We have all sorts of cases where EB2 is approved with Indian Bachelors degree. There are cases where I140 was denied in such cases so it all depends on lot of unknown factors. If you do not have Master degree from US university then you have to be little cautious in current conditions.

[trackitgc]

Thanks Q !!! I plan on talking to my boss next yr on it. Hope some thing works out...

[veni001]

Kanmani,

An important thing to now watch out for is approvals for October filers, which ideally should start trickling in January and in February. NSC has processing time of 4 months.

This is what USCIS says about processing times:
"If the office is processing a particular type of application in less time than our processing goal, you will see the processing times expressed in months (for example, if the office is processing naturalization applications in less than our 5 month goal, the processing time will state "Five Months"). However, if that office is taking longer than our processing goal to handle the form type in question, you will see the filing date (e.g., "April 10, 2003") of the last case we processed on the date the website chart was last updated. The charts are updated on or about the 15th day of each month."

So at least NSC is capable of starting approvals as soon as in 2 months, and mostly always less than 4 months on an average. I have a Korean co-worker, whose concurrent application was approved in 2 months, as soon as he got FP done, in a week he got approval.

This will be an important milestone.

Another thing, today 2/23, they still have not updated processing times, otherwise they consistently update around the 15th as they claim. It indicates to me that indeed they are in holiday mode.

Nishant,

I noticed one EB2I case approval updated on trackitt with RD 10/14/2011.

[Prabhas]

My friend with PD 28th Sep, 2007, got his EAD approved and got his cards last Friday!

[suninphx]

There is a poll on http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.com to determine the multiple PERM factor. It states:

"ONLY FOR PERMs that were filed post July 2007 :- Select total number of PERMs that you or your spouse currently own post July 2007."

replies:

1: 121
2: 56
3: 11
4 or more (assume 4 for simplicity) : 8

Assuming each converted PERM takes exactly 2 numbers (ignoring the non US born kids for now), the multiple PERM factor is calculated as 1.57 from this sample. If we include the non US born kids, it seems closer to 1.65 (i.e. each successful I485 application will take approximately 1.65 people).

P.S. The multiple PERM factor comprises of demand destruction due to unclaimed PERMs as well as the anticipated family size of 2.125.

I had mentioned this as one of the reason for my assumption of aggressive DD. Spec's opinion was that data is too small to draw any concrete conclusion. And I agree with that. But it's a good indicative data I believe.

[Spectator]

I had mentioned this as one of the reason for my assumption of aggressive DD. Spec's opinion was that data is too small to draw any concrete conclusion. And I agree with that. But it's a good indicative data I believe.
suninphx,

I still have reservations, but I agree it is indicative, within quite large bounds. I believe such a poll is likely to overstate the numbers, especially when the response numbers are low.


Yes, it does represent approximately 23% demand destruction due to multiple PERMs alone. It depends upon one's perspective to determine if it's too aggressive. I think we should continue assuming 20% destruction as a conservative figure (and 25% as a high end optimistic figure).

sportsfan33,

I am not entirely sure how you arrive at your figures, but here's how I look at it.

The data from the non-immigrant blog in your previous post shows 196 respondents have 298 PERM between them.

That is an overall ratio of 1.52 PERM per person.

Cases remaining would be 1 / 1.52 = 0.658 or 65.8%.

The DD would be 100% - 65.8% = 34.2% for multiple PERM.

To put that into perspective, Teddy's current figures allow for 37.3% total DD, which gives an OR of 0.8.

If you made the DD say 44%, it would mean an OR of 0.714 - about 3k less cases up to the present Cut Off Date of 01JAN09.

[imdeng]

Are we expecting the demand data in Jan first week? I guess it was not released in Dec since it would not have had anything to show.

BTW - the Mumbai consulate has been ahead of the curve in releasing VB for past couple months. Looking forward to those guys breaking good news again.

[TeddyKoochu]

Nishant,

I noticed one EB2I case approval updated on trackitt with RD 10/14/2011.

Nishant, Veni & All following are the current approvals of Oct Filers on Trackitt, finally new 485 approvals have started.
Starchaser, Abracadabra - NSC PWMB
Superman123 (Spouse only) - TSC
I believe that the approvals especially for Oct filers should pick up next month once fresh numbers for the next quarter are being allocated and current time being holiday season a lot of people maybe on vacation (Its noteworthy that EAD / AP approvals are coming fast). There have been atleast 10K approvals for the Jul 2007 / Pre Oct 01 filers this year. On Trackitt there are a good number of PWMB cases from Aug that have seen approvals. The Oct filers count should be between 2.5 – 3K hopefully most of them will get approved next month; even RD / ND will be significant besides PD.

[self.coach]

From my experience, it does not look unreasonable as a significant fraction of Indians (especially those who have gotten their Masters from the US) now have working spouses with another PERM application.

This is an apt observation and I had always thought that eventually a significant percentage of applicants would bail out of their personal GC process if their spouses become current. The question is how soon is that 'slot' available for reuse.

[self.coach]

Please note that POPVOX https://www.popvox.com is GovTrack's sister site that lets people weigh in on legistlations.

Please go ahead and click support on the following link (it will ask to create an account, please take the extra step and activate your account and support HR 3012).

Link: https://www.popvox.com/bills/us/112/hr3012

[GhostWriter]

Sportsfan33, sorry don't follow your logic.
Firstly the dependent factor is not necessary to calculate demand destruction from multiple PERM data, it should cancel out.
Look at it this way
Total PERMs filed = 121*1 + 56*2 + 11*3 + 8*4 = 298
Total PERMs that will be used = 121 + 56 + 11 + 8 = 196

So PERMs that won't be used = 298 - 196 = 102
Demand destruction due to Multiple PERMs = 102/298 = 34% (same as what Spec mentioned)


Hmmm,

Let's say each PERM could carry 2.125, which is the baseline. So 196 PERMS * 2.125 people = 417 applicants.

Due to the multiple PERMs, applicants can be recalculated as: (121*2 + 56*2/2 + 11*2/3 + 8*2/4) * 2.125/2. The quantity in the bracket assumes 2 people per PERM and the quantity outside the bracket is an adjustment factor for 2.125 people per PERM = 329 applicants.

Reduction = (417 - 329)/417 = 21% (it turned out less today).

Another way to look at it. Ignore all 3 or more PERMs. 121 people had single PERMs and 75 had multiple PERMs...let's assume all of them had only 2. So indeed, 38% of the total PERMs were multiple PERMs (75/196).

Now, without multiple PERMs, in order to generate a demand of 100, you would need 50 PERM applications. With multiple PERMs, in order to generate the same demand and also satisfy the condition that 38% of the PERMs are multiple, you would need approximately 62 PERM applications. Why? Because 62 * 0.38 = 24, which are the number of multiple PERMs and 12 of them will not be claimed, and remaining 50 will be used to generate a demand of 100. Notice that 62*0.8 = 50. So to account for multiple PERMs, we should multiply by 0.8 (which represents about 20% reduction in PERMs).

[srimurthy]

Sportsfan33, sorry don't follow your logic.
Firstly the dependent factor is not necessary to calculate demand destruction from multiple PERM data, it should cancel out.
Look at it this way
Total PERMs filed = 121*1 + 56*2 + 11*3 + 8*4 = 298
Total PERMs that will be used = 121 + 56 + 11 + 8 = 196

So PERMs that won't be used = 298 - 196 = 102
Demand destruction due to Multiple PERMs = 102/298 = 34% (same as what Spec mentioned)

I know Guru's might have taken note of the below but as a FYI, most of the big firms who applied for PERMS either in EB2 or EB3 in 2009 have pulled them back in large numbers because of RFE's instead of replying to the RFE's. Firms like Cognizant, Accenture, Infosys and others. So this could also be a factor to the no of PERM's finally landing with a 140.

[Pdmar08]

Nishant, Veni & All following are the current approvals of Oct Filers on Trackitt, finally new 485 approvals have started.
Starchaser, Abracadabra - NSC PWMB
Superman123 (Spouse only) - TSC
I believe that the approvals especially for Oct filers should pick up next month once fresh numbers for the next quarter are being allocated and current time being holiday season a lot of people maybe on vacation (Its noteworthy that EAD / AP approvals are coming fast). There have been atleast 10K approvals for the Jul 2007 / Pre Oct 01 filers this year. On Trackitt there are a good number of PWMB cases from Aug that have seen approvals. The Oct filers count should be between 2.5 – 3K hopefully most of them will get approved next month; even RD / ND will be significant besides PD.

Hi Teddy,
Can you please elaborate a bit on how PD Vs RD/ND will play out? My company lawyers filed on 12/20 though i was ready on 12/1. Not that i want to go argue with anyone, this is for my understanding that i would like to know.

thanks!

[Pdmar08]

I know Guru's might have taken note of the below but as a FYI, most of the big firms who applied for PERMS either in EB2 or EB3 in 2009 have pulled them back in large numbers because of RFE's instead of replying to the RFE's. Firms like Cognizant, Accenture, Infosys and others. So this could also be a factor to the no of PERM's finally landing with a 140.

There was big batch in 2008 from a big company(if you are using a PC, u probably know which one ;) ) that were withdrawn after rejection in audit. Some folks are still fighting to keep that 2008 PD but most have re-applied in 2011 and are now ready with I140 approved.

[suninphx]

Nishant, Veni & All following are the current approvals of Oct Filers on Trackitt, finally new 485 approvals have started.
Starchaser, Abracadabra - NSC PWMB
Superman123 (Spouse only) - TSC
I believe that the approvals especially for Oct filers should pick up next month once fresh numbers for the next quarter are being allocated and current time being holiday season a lot of people maybe on vacation (Its noteworthy that EAD / AP approvals are coming fast). There have been atleast 10K approvals for the Jul 2007 / Pre Oct 01 filers this year. On Trackitt there are a good number of PWMB cases from Aug that have seen approvals. The Oct filers count should be between 2.5 – 3K hopefully most of them will get approved next month; even RD / ND will be significant besides PD.

So assuming 2500/month density for apr 07 - jul 07 - 33% or more people missed the boat?

[Kanmani]

Perms withdrawn and denied were already excluded in the Perm data compiled by Spec/Veni.


I know Guru's might have taken note of the below but as a FYI, most of the big firms who applied for PERMS either in EB2 or EB3 in 2009 have pulled them back in large numbers because of RFE's instead of replying to the RFE's. Firms like Cognizant, Accenture, Infosys and others. So this could also be a factor to the no of PERM's finally landing with a 140.

[vizcard]

So assuming 2500/month density for apr 07 - jul 07 - 33% or more people missed the boat?

Keep me honest but I believe PWMB is pre-July 2007 PDs who missed the July 2007 fiasco. July 2007 onwards are not PWMB.

[vizcard]

Hi Teddy,
Can you please elaborate a bit on how PD Vs RD/ND will play out? My company lawyers filed on 12/20 though i was ready on 12/1. Not that i want to go argue with anyone, this is for my understanding that i would like to know.

thanks!

Apps are processed by RD but visas are allocated by PD. It'll be a matter of few days so don't worry about it.

[suninphx]

Keep me honest but I believe PWMB is pre-July 2007 PDs who missed the July 2007 fiasco. July 2007 onwards are not PWMB.

Oct filers have PDs of Apr 07 - Jul 07. So they are PWMBs.

[TeddyKoochu]

There was big batch in 2008 from a big company(if you are using a PC, u probably know which one ;) ) that were withdrawn after rejection in audit. Some folks are still fighting to keep that 2008 PD but most have re-applied in 2011 and are now ready with I140 approved.


Apps are processed by RD but visas are allocated by PD. It'll be a matter of few days so don't worry about it.

Pdmar08, vizcard explained it very elegantly the point is the sooner the application is in and if numbers are available and the dates stay current it has a higher likelihood to reach the hands and eyes of an officer earlier and be approved. If the numbers are available it can just be a matter of a few days.

These things however did matter in 2008 when EB2 I/C moved to 2006 suddenly, the 10% folks who were approved had all filed on Day 1 / 2 of the Jul 2007 fiasco.

[TeddyKoochu]

So assuming 2500/month density for apr 07 - jul 07 - 33% or more people missed the boat?

The PWMB figures were computed by different means earlier, in fact this was the starting point of the great work by Spec and Veni on the perm data. The rough estimate was anywhere from 4.5-5K. The term PWMB meant anyone who missed the Jul 2007 boat, realistically had a PD before Aug 15th 2007. When we see the Jul 2011 filings looks like there are a good number of people even with a PD before 15th Apr 2007 who missed the boat. However people from 15th Apr to 15th Aug were more likely to miss the boat in those days Atlanta was taking 3 months while Chicago only 3 days to approve perms. Most PWMB's belong to Atlanta. So anyone who applied atleast in Jun, Jul and Aug from Atlanta was almost a certain candidate to miss. The 33% factor is a actually an interesting observation you have derived, out of the say 4K it is highly likely that 2.5-3k do belong to Apr 15 to Jul 15th range. We may never see some of the cases inventoried because the approvals have started.

[suninphx]

The PWMB figures were computed by different means earlier, in fact this was the starting point of the great work by Spec and Veni on the perm data. The rough estimate was anywhere from 4.5-5K. The term PWMB meant anyone who missed the Jul 2007 boat, realistically had a PD before Aug 15th 2007. When we see the Jul 2011 filings looks like there are a good number of people even with a PD before 15th Apr 2007 who missed the boat. However people from 15th Apr to 15th Aug were more likely to miss the boat in those days Atlanta was taking 3 months while Chicago only 3 days to approve perms. Most PWMB's belong to Atlanta. So anyone who applied atleast in Jun, Jul and Aug from Atlanta was almost a certain candidate to miss. The 33% factor is a actually an interesting observation you have derived, out of the say 4K it is highly likely that 2.5-3k do belong to Apr 15 to Jul 15th range. We may never see some of the cases inventoried because the approvals have started.
Not sure from where 4K figure came from. Anyway I am in mobile browsing mode. I will read your post again once I get home.
PS: I remember that our calculation was 6-7K Pwmbs. What's best method to confirm our calculations were correct. Those numbers might give us initial insight in DD theory.

[TeddyKoochu]

Not sure from where 4K figure came from. Anyway I am in mobile browsing mode. I will read your post again once I get home.
PS: I remember that our calculation was 6-7K Pwmbs. What's best method to confirm our calculations were correct. Those numbers might give us initial insight in DD theory.

Sun Iam not able to locate that post, probably Veni can help us. As far and as far back as I can remember atleast for my own calculations I have always been using 4.5K (Extrapolated inventor if you see my posts in the 2011 thread). The Jul inventory as such has always been a puzzle thanks to the very high NIW filing from our Chinese friends. This is based on the fact that 50% of Jul and Early Aug filers would have missed out and probably 20-30% of Jun and some from April & May. For a moment if we assume that 8K is the PWMB figure then it would imply that atleast 6K came from Apr 15th to Jul 15th then the perm - I485 conversion ratio would go over 1.

[krishnav]

Hello All,

Is there a separate thread where the approvals/Receipts are being tracked?? If yes, could someone point me there.
If not, does any one know what was the case with last known PD that received their Green Card. I am just trying to figure out, if at all retrogression happens (hopefully not), where the dates would be moved to.

Am I assuming wrong when I say if a GC was approved for a PD in Aug 2007, dates will not retrogress beyond Aug 2007 (for eg to Jun 2007).
Please someone clarify.
Thanks.

[Spectator]

Sun Iam not able to locate that post, probably Veni can help us. As far and as far back as I can remember atleast for my own calculations I have always been using 4.5K (Extrapolated inventor if you see my posts in the 2011 thread). The Jul inventory as such has always been a puzzle thanks to the very high NIW filing from our Chinese friends. This is based on the fact that 50% of Jul and Early Aug filers would have missed out and probably 20-30% of Jun and some from April & May. For a moment if we assume that 8K is the PWMB figure then it would imply that atleast 6K came from Apr 15th to Jul 15th then the perm - I485 conversion ratio would go over 1.Teddy,

It's funny how things get lost over time.

Using an OR of 0.8 I know that the calculated EB2-IC PWMB I-485 for the October VB range of April 15, 2007 to July 14, 2007 is 1,980 (China - 353, India - 1,627).

The EB2-IC PWMB I-485 from July 15, 2007 to Aug 14, 2007 is 1,111 (China - 185, India - 926).

Hope that helps.

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy,

It's funny how things get lost over time.

Using an OR of 0.8 I know that the calculated EB2-IC PWMB I-485 for the October VB range of April 15, 2007 to July 14, 2007 is 1,980 (China - 353, India - 1,627).

The EB2-IC PWMB I-485 from July 15, 2007 to Aug 14, 2007 is 1,111 (China - 185, India - 926).

Hope that helps.

Spec, thanks, it really helps. Depending on the OR of 0.8 - 1 the Oct filers would range between 2-2.5K.

Jul (Assuming 50%) = (1747 + 2007 - 1000 (Exclude NIW)) * 50 / 100 = 1377
Assume 50% filed in Oct and 50% in Nov for Jul PD cases.

Jul = 688
Jun = (1296 + 288) * (50/100) = 792
May = (1043 + 546) * (30/100) = 475

This comes very close to 2000.

This is the link to my post fro the 2011 thread, the Jul PWMB figures are higher because I extrapolated from the inventory itself and that had significant NIW.
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?4-EB2-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)-2011&p=22#post22

With the way things are moving (Approvals already starting) there are good chances that all Oct filers would be greened early next year. With QSP already running surely there will be 2K numbers to allocate towards these cases.

[abcd1234]

Somehow I reached this thread, and man-o-man, I am so amazed to look at the time and effort had been put and research had been done by so many people. Reading though the thread, initially it is too complex to understand for a layman like me but then there are so many explanations. Wowwww...

Well, can I take this moment to ask a stupid but probably the most important question for the 2009 EB2 I/C filers.

What is the prediction of GURUs for the Feb bulletin on PD movement? I am more of a percent guy regarding predictions. So a percent on different assumptions will also be good.

Thanks guys !!

[eb2visa]

Gurus, Any chance for Aug 31 2009?

[happyimmigrant]

Hello Guru's,

First of all please excuse for posting this here...this is an issue I have and am worrying about it since long.....please do share your thoughts.

Moderators move this thread as appropriate.

Am a Regular reader of this forum and am very much impressed by your valueble suggestions,

Here is my scenario.

I am on h1 since 2006 valid till sep 2009 with I94 till Jan 2009 with company A.

in July 2008 i tried to transfer my h1 to company B, there was RFE and eventually that guy sold the Firm to Company C,
so he did not respond to RFE and so h1 transfer with company B got automatic denial.

now in November 2008 company c tried to transfer my h1 to company c, which was denied in december 2008.

so i was on the payroll of company B & C from july 2008 to december 2008 using the portability law.

now in january 2009 when i contacted Company A, they said they revoked my H1(may not be true)

At last i ended up going back to company A, with I94 valid only till january 2009.

so company A asked for a extension not stating that i had applied for transfer twice, and it was approved till january 2012, and subsequently January 2015.

Company A applied for PERM in April 2009.

and obviously i had 3 W-2's for the FY 2008.

My question now to Guru's is:

i) is that period of 6 months where i was with Company B and Company C on their payroll any cause of concern for me when i file my 485(G325 etc)?
ii) Was i actually out of status (or) involved in unauthorized employment during the said period (July to December 2008)?
iii) Am i eligible for 245(K)?
**) if so what are my chances of 485?
v) if not how will i explain 3 W-2's for 2008 without 3 valid h1's from company A,B,C respectively?
vi) What is the best course of action for me at this point in view of the VB Movement(I may be current next bulliten)?

Any insight on this scenario will be greately appreciated.

Thanks.

[vizcard]

The obvious answer is talk to a good lawyer. Everything you get on message boards comes with a big asterisk mark anyway. So you might as well directly talk to a lawyer.

My 2 cents are that you don't need to worry. Typically you are "in status" if you have a receipt. The question marks from my perspective are two-fold
1. At what point was your companyB app denied. Was it before Nov?
2. What is the legal status and procedure if you get one app denied. This is a broader procedural question.

I'm probably muddying the waters more so as i said, talk to a lawyer... ideally the one who will file your 485.

[Kanmani]

happyimmigrant

How many H1b approvals do you have between 2006 to till date? Who sponsored your GC ?
Are you currently working on H1b? ( it looks like after the first H1b approval everything else is denied)
i) yes
ii)unauthorised employment
iii) yes, with difficulty .
If you have worked without H1b all these years , it will be very difficult to restart your 180 days clock by departing and re-entering . But consult with an immigration attorney to find how to invoke 245(k).

Note: This is not a legal advice

[happyimmigrant]

How many H1b approvals do you have between 2006 to till date? Who sponsored your GC ?
Approvals:
Employer A->2006 October to September 2009.(original)
Employer A->2009 January to January 2012.(extension)
Employer A->2012 January to January 2015.(extension)

Denials:
Employer B->2008 July to September 2008(Transfer applied from A)
Employer C->2008 October to December 2008(transfer applied from B)Are you currently working on H1b? ( it looks like after the first H1b approval everything else is denied)

Yes am on H1b with valid I94 from:
Employer A->2009 January to January 2012.(extension)
Employer A->2012 January to January 2015.(extension)
i) yes
ii)unauthorised employment
iii) yes, with difficulty .
If you have worked without H1b all these years , it will be very difficult to restart your 180 days clock by departing and re-entering . But consult with an immigration attorney to find how to invoke 245(k).

[happyimmigrant]

Thanks Kanmani,

My question is more towards the Legal status/Unauthorized employment for ~6 month period(July 2008 to January 2009), when i left company A-> Joined company B with transfer receipt notice->Joined company C with another transfer receipt notice-> Went back to Company A-> and got H1Extension approved.