EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

[Spectator]

I was asked this question Off-line. I think it is a good one and I am answering it here for the benefit of everyone.


I am trying to follow your PERM calculations in the link below

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?85-PERM-Breakdowns-For-PD-%28including-Monthly-Breakdown%29-for-China-amp-India

I am having difficulty understanding the tables per year.

So I was looking at the 2010 PERM table. Can you please throw some pointers as to how I can start understanding this table? Appreciate your time and patience.

For example in the 2010 PERM table, It says that the number of people with PD in Jan 2010 is total 1500. But I did not understand the division of FY2010 - 1427 and FY2011 - 73. What does that mean? Thanks in advance.

Sometimes it is easy to forget that not everyone has been here a long time and grown up with the Calculations, so a primer may be useful to many newer members.

Let's start with some basics.

The annual PERM data represents Approvals (Certified & Certified-Expired), Denials and Withdrawals made during the relevant DOL FISCAL Year. The Fiscal Year (FY) runs from October 1st to September 30th.

The Receipt Date of the PERM can be considered the Priority Date (PD), but it is not shown in the data. However, it can be extracted from the Case Number. When we talk about PD we are talking about the CALENDAR Year (CY) running from January 1st to December 31st.

The approvals in any FY by DOL may be for several CY PD.

Perhaps the easiest to understand is that PD of October 1st to December 31st of a CY cannot be approved any earlier than than the next FY compared to those with a PD of January 1st to September 30th.

Other reasons are cases delayed by Audit and Appeal or just the general processing time (currently 90 days). A successful Appeal case might not get Certified for 2-3 years. Audit times have varied considerably over the years.

Understanding the above, it becomes clear that the total number of PERM Certifications for a particular PD Month or Year will not become fully apparent for several years, although the majority are Certified in the first two FY of DOL data, if Audit times are not too long.

In the example given, the table is saying, that of 1,500 PERM Certified to date with a Priority date of January 2010, 1,427 were Certified in the DOL FY2010 (October 2009 to September 2010) and 73 were Certified in DOL FY2011 (October 2010 to September 2011).

Going back to what I said above, no cases with a PD of October-December 2010 were Certified in FY2010, since October 2010 is in DOL FY2011.

PD 2010 has become fairly well matched for FY and CY, as DOL have reduced the backlog, but this has not always been the case.

If you look at the Table for PD in CY2009, you will see that virtually no Certification actually took place in FY2009.

I hope that helps people understand the Tables more fully.

[Archer]

No employment related docs like paystubs or W2s if she is filing with you.
You will need here I797 or any other visa doc/approval notices to show continuous legal status. From my experience my wife was here on her BL1 before and the lawyer asked for the approved blanket petition too...had to struggle to get it.
Other than that the usual, passport, i94 marriage and birth certs.
Look at one of the other thread there is plenty of info available.

thanks for the reply
can you please point me to the post. i will search myself. it would be great if you know

[Feb262009]

Spec,
Always admire your ability to explain to newcomers. That is tough when you know a lot.

Do we have any agreement on why do we see this big movement? Is it really demand destruction?

[TeddyKoochu]

Following is the current situation after the release of the Jan Bulletin
EB2 I/C date being at 01-JAN-2009 represents the 40 mark. Here is how 8.5K SOFAD was already consumed and assuming a density of 2 (Highly optimistic) -2.5 (Last Assumption) K per month porting inclusive (@3K Per annum, spread as 250PM & included in the perm figures) it becomes an additional 28 – 35K so essentially 36.5 to 43.5K level; this can be averaged to 40K. We will know the exact numbers only after the Jan 2012 inventory is published. Porting of 3K is only for individuals whose PD is before Jul 2007. I still believe that the 2K per month (Porting Inclusive) a drop of 500 per month is possibly the best case scenario possible.
The 2500 per month figure assuming a perm to 485 rollover ratio of 1 kind of implicitly assumed 38% demand destruction which itself is not small by any means. This is calculated as 1 / 2.125 * .75 = .62, here 2.125 is the dependent factor and .75 is the EB2 – EB3 ratio. The .75 ratio for EB2 – EB3 takes into account upgrades for individuals who missed the Jul 2007 grand event of dates being current.
The movement especially this month is way beyond expectations in the sense that the prediction benchmark has always been movement equivalent to a year’s SOFAD, most likely the intent is to have a large buffer which would far exceed the SOFAD that would come by in FY 2012, to force the same kind of intake once again in the coming year the SOFAD should come very close to wiping out the intake, this appears to be quite difficult as of now.
For all the friends who became current this month make all efforts to have your cases filed next month, this may well be the last boat in the current intake. The VB language does keep the door open for intakes, however this is beyond the domain of calculated predictions it is something totally in the domain of discretion of the agencies. Having said that the dates may still move further but it is something that cannot be calculated as none of us can logically deduce the targeted intake that the agencies have set to accomplish.
The current bulletin may have been influenced atleast in part with the possibility of HR 3012 being passed, this bill has a full 1 year’s time to pass the senate, since it is currently not the law the agencies are not supposed to take it into account, however if it becomes the law even in a few months time with the current level of intake there may be enough number of EB2 I/C cases to approve, in fact every one even current by even the current VB will come close to be greened quite literally. The agencies are ideally supposed to approve EB2 ROW and EB1 cases as soon as they are pre-adjudicated so in theory if the law passes later on in the year EB2 ROW would have used more than 15% of the 40K allocation. HR 3012 if passed can drastically change the game it kind of gives EB2 I/C ~ 20K guaranteed additional SOFAD.

[Feb262009]

Teddy,
If this intake is last for this fy, and if 3012 doesn't go forward, do you think 2009ers will have to wait more than a year to see any further movement? I thought CO was avoiding the long wait situation by moving dates in controlled manner.

[msekhar14]

Hello Friends,
I am new to this forum (and also I have a very little knowledge of GC Process).

I am in the following situation. Please share your valuable suggestions.

I came to the USA on H1B during Oct 2007. My first employer has applied my GC in EB3 category and my priority date is 06/16/2010. I recently changed my employer (3 months back), and I got 3 years of extension, because my I-140 was approved (at my previous employer). My current employer has started the PERM process and he will file my PERM under EB2 Category pretty soon. But I got a very good job offer (Full Time) from my current client company. My client company promised that they will start the GC as soon as possible (and I hope that they will apply in EB2 Category). While I am about to accept the full time employment with the client, I saw a big movement in EB2 category, yesterday.

Now I am in dilemma, whether to accept the client position, because my current employer has already started the GC in EB2 and if my PD (06/16/2010) becomes current in less than 6 months, then I prefer to stay back with my current employer. Any predictions of getting my PD Current in near future?

On a different note, if my client company applies for my H1B Transfer, will I get my 3 years of extension?

Thanks in advance!!

[Jonty Rhodes]

Following is the current situation after the release of the Jan Bulletin
EB2 I/C date being at 01-JAN-2009 represents the 40 mark. Here is how 8.5K SOFAD was already consumed and assuming a density of 2 (Highly optimistic) -2.5 (Last Assumption) K per month porting inclusive (@3K Per annum, spread as 250PM & included in the perm figures) it becomes an additional 28 – 35K so essentially 36.5 to 43.5K level; this can be averaged to 40K. We will know the exact numbers only after the Jan 2012 inventory is published. Porting of 3K is only for individuals whose PD is before Jul 2007. I still believe that the 2K per month (Porting Inclusive) a drop of 500 per month is possibly the best case scenario possible.
The 2500 per month figure assuming a perm to 485 rollover ratio of 1 kind of implicitly assumed 38% demand destruction which itself is not small by any means. This is calculated as 1 / 2.125 * .75 = .62, here 2.125 is the dependent factor and .75 is the EB2 – EB3 ratio. The .75 ratio for EB2 – EB3 takes into account upgrades for individuals who missed the Jul 2007 grand event of dates being current.
The movement especially this month is way beyond expectations in the sense that the prediction benchmark has always been movement equivalent to a year’s SOFAD, most likely the intent is to have a large buffer which would far exceed the SOFAD that would come by in FY 2012, to force the same kind of intake once again in the coming year the SOFAD should come very close to wiping out the intake, this appears to be quite difficult as of now.
For all the friends who became current this month make all efforts to have your cases filed next month, this may well be the last boat in the current intake. The VB language does keep the door open for intakes, however this is beyond the domain of calculated predictions it is something totally in the domain of discretion of the agencies. Having said that the dates may still move further but it is something that cannot be calculated as none of us can logically deduce the targeted intake that the agencies have set to accomplish.
The current bulletin may have been influenced atleast in part with the possibility of HR 3012 being passed, this bill has a full 1 year’s time to pass the senate, since it is currently not the law the agencies are not supposed to take it into account, however if it becomes the law even in a few months time with the current level of intake there may be enough number of EB2 I/C cases to approve, in fact every one even current by even the current VB will come close to be greened quite literally. The agencies are ideally supposed to approve EB2 ROW and EB1 cases as soon as they are pre-adjudicated so in theory if the law passes later on in the year EB2 ROW would have used more than 15% of the 40K allocation. HR 3012 if passed can drastically change the game it kind of gives EB2 I/C ~ 20K guaranteed additional SOFAD.

Teddy, this is what CO had to say in that October 26, 2011 meeting with AILA about EB2 ROW and EB2IC.

EB-2 Rest of World (ROW).* This category is expected to remain current throughout the fiscal year.

EB-2 China and EB-2 India.* These two categories are where the most action is going to be over the next few months.* Mr. Oppenheim indicated that he expects to be able to advance EB-2 China and India significantly over the next few visa bulletins.* It is possible that the December 2011 Visa Bulletin would advance EB-2 India and China to at least March 1, 2008 or even further.** Similar forward movement may be expected in the January 2012 and February 2012 Visa Bulletins. *** Mr. Oppenheim cautioned, however, that if there is high demand (number of filings) in the EB-2 category, he may hold or even retrogress towards the summer of 2012.** He noted that there is usually a 4-6 month gap between filing of an I-485 adjustment application and when a visa number is actually requested and allocated — this means that EB-2 India and China I-485 applications filed in the fall will be need visa numbers in spring/summer of 2012 and this is when retrogression may happen.

My question is that if CO says that he expects the EB2 ROW to remain current for the rest of the FY2012 then I believe we should definitely see retrogression soon (if and when????) for India and China.

However having said that, we don't know whether this VB had some impact from possibility of HR3012 becoming a law or not? Because when CO made an announcement regarding EB2 ROW remaining current through rest of the FY2012 in AILA meeting in October, 2011, I don't think he had any idea regarding HR3012 as it was not in the picture at all. So I don't know whether it was a calculated move by CO to say EB2 ROW will remain current for FY2012 or he just said it in the meeting in response to a question, as he did not have HR3012 in his mind, and now he will backtrack on his own statement in case if HR3012 becomes a law.

One thing is certain that if HR3012 does not pass the senate then EB2ROW will remain current but we have to see whether CO retrogresses the dates of I and C or will it even go further (due to very heavy demand destruction and duplicate PERM filings)??? I guess we have to wait and watch.

[shashinehal]

Sometimes i think the worlds powerful country US and with such good talents working at US from so many years, couldn't put a live immigration system ? where your SSN is unique so how many ever labor or -140 applications you file one will know whats his queue number . And all they have to keep on moving is the queue number which will help people predict their dates and take appropriate action on whether to move jobs or not, marriage plans, etc..

I wish i was in USCIS IT department where i can make decisions and get something like this implemented which will be transparent to all people in US.

[shashinehal]

Wasnt sure how to reply with quote, so had to remove my reply and repost

[mesan123]

GURU's,

Found this article in other forum.... below is the link for foreign labour certification counts till now

http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.gov/pdf/oflc_2010_annual_report_master.pdf

thought this is good...if it is irrelavent...you guys can remove it... :)

[qesehmk]

Friends we donated $75 more for december (total $150 this month).

By end of december we will donate $100 more at least and make the YTD total to $1000. Please suggest a charity if you know one in the thread - http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?90-Account-of-Donations-We-Made/page2

Thanks
Q

[Feb262009]

Gurus,
3 questions.
- are we in agreement on what reason behind this big movement? Is it demand destruction (can't be that big) or double perm or 3012?

- will CO know the number of fillings in first 10 days of Jan,before releasing feb bulletin ?
- Teddy said current intake is 40k upto Jan 2009 and dates may not move further. If yes, how long it will not move? Is it till this fy or till late next fy?

Thank you.

[kolugc]

Will this be a problem?

My PD is 9-June-2008 and I am current now. But on Nov 18th I sent me wife's passport (Express) to Indian Consulate, NY for renewal. I did include a pre-paid (Express) self address envelope along with our application packet.

But when my PD became current on Friday (9-Dec-2011), I tried calling Indian Consulate, NY to know the status. I got to talk to a person after I tried 50-70times calling them. And she said, our application have been return on Nov 29th because some information was not complete.

But I am worried now, we haven't received it yet. Not sure how they sent it to me. When I try to track the pre-paid Express self addressed envelope I sent them, I don't see any records for that in the USPS site.

Now I think I don't need the Original passport for applying 485 on or by Dec 31st, 2011.

Gurus..... When would I need the Original passport (with regard to 485 process), while applying? bia metric stage? medical examination? or copies are sufficient?

Other question would be, what I should be doing ideally to resolve my current situation? Tried calling the NY, Consulate and its not possible to get through to the person there. So should I travel to NY and see what is to be done? Or should I go for duplicate passport? Not sure myself, I am very confused and worried....

Please help me with some suggestion...

[qesehmk]

Since people have been asking interpretation of latest VB I have given my perspective in the header of hte thread.

Header updated.


Gurus,
3 questions.
- are we in agreement on what reason behind this big movement? Is it demand destruction (can't be that big) or double perm or 3012?

- will CO know the number of fillings in first 10 days of Jan,before releasing feb bulletin ?
- Teddy said current intake is 40k upto Jan 2009 and dates may not move further. If yes, how long it will not move? Is it till this fy or till late next fy?

Thank you.


Will this be a problem?

My PD is 9-June-2008 and I am current now. But on Nov 18th I sent me wife's passport (Express) to Indian Consulate, NY for renewal. I did include a pre-paid (Express) self address envelope along with our application packet.

But when my PD became current on Friday (9-Dec-2011), I tried calling Indian Consulate, NY to know the status. I got to talk to a person after I tried 50-70times calling them. And she said, our application have been return on Nov 29th because some information was not complete.

But I am worried now, we haven't received it yet. Not sure how they sent it to me. When I try to track the pre-paid Express self addressed envelope I sent them, I don't see any records for that in the USPS site.

Now I think I don't need the Original passport for applying 485 on or by Dec 31st, 2011.

Gurus..... When would I need the Original passport (with regard to 485 process), while applying? bia metric stage? medical examination? or copies are sufficient?

Other question would be, what I should be doing ideally to resolve my current situation? Tried calling the NY, Consulate and its not possible to get through to the person there. So should I travel to NY and see what is to be done? Or should I go for duplicate passport? Not sure myself, I am very confused and worried....

Please help me with some suggestion...

You only need a valid passport copies - not necessary physical copy - while applying for 485.

[kolugc]

Thank Q.... very relieving....

Would it be better to visit Indian Consulate NY to get some clarifications? I live in Cleveland.


Since people have been asking interpretation of latest VB I have given my perspective in the header of hte thread.

Header updated.





You only need a valid passport copies - not necessary physical copy - while applying for 485.

[essenel]

Nishant, you are talking more about NSC, right? For TSC, the EAD/AP timeline seems like it is going to be longer than that....


Hi, would like to say that we are noticing folks getting EAD/AP in like 40 days too, before even FP is done. The above was normal timeline told to me by lawyer, but you may get lucky and get sooner. The new EAD/AP combo card per him is almost like GC and can hold digital information like biometrics.

[qesehmk]

I am concerned that the Fedex or whatever they sent you back hasn't reached you. But to be honest that is a separate topic. It shouldn't affect your 485 application.

So please do what you find appropriate. The worst case is you have to reapply for a passport with NY consulate.
Thank Q.... very relieving....

Would it be better to visit US Consulate NY to get some clarifications? I live in Cleveland.

[kolugc]

Thanks Q once again...

Let me wait till end of next week, If I haven't received it yet, then I might have to head to Indian consulate NY.


I am concerned that the Fedex or whatever they sent you back hasn't reached you. But to be honest that is a separate topic. It shouldn't affect your 485 application.

So please do what you find appropriate. The worst case is you have to reapply for a passport with NY consulate.

[shashinehal]

As per the news below it seems that there are fewer applications than expected until 2008 March, which made USCIS to jump for 9 months. If predication's go correct that due to economy slow down there was 40% down in terms of number of new applications than dates might move again in feb 2012.



http://immigrationroad.com/immigration-news.php

12/09/2011: January 2012 Visa Bulletin Released

China and India EB2 leaped forward nearly 10 months to January 1, 2009! According to the State Department: "The China and India Employment Second preference cut-off date has been advanced at a rapid rate in recent months. As previously noted, this action was intended to generate significant levels of new filings for adjustment of status at U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) offices. USCIS has reported that the rate of new filings is currently far below that which they had anticipated, prompting an even more aggressive movement of the cut-off date for January and possibly beyond. While this action greatly increases the potential for an eventual retrogression of the cut-off at some point during the year, it also provides the best opportunity to utilize all numbers available under the annual limit."

[doctorp]

My personal belief is that it is unlikely that 3012 will pass the senate, Chuck Grassley has put a hold on it, so it is unlikely that it will even come up for discussion even in the judicial committee let alone the senate, also even if comes up to vote and if there are amendments it has to go back to house for approval, all of this is improbabale, if not impossible to happen before 20th jan when new congress starts.
Having said that i think the forward movement is purely due to reasons unknown to us but hopefully known to CO, definitely not due to 3012. I believe a little bit in demand destruction, but not a whole lot. at the same time it seems EB1 and EB2 ROW have not gone down drastically. So I think we should count our blessings and make sure we get 485 filed and at least get EAD/AP
Between, Teddy and other Nov Filers who got their EAD/AP cards... is it 1 or 2 years?
Gurus please give your input

[veni001]

As per the news below it seems that there are fewer applications than expected until 2008 March, which made USCIS to jump for 9 months. If predication's go correct that due to economy slow down there was 40% down in terms of number of new applications than dates might move again in feb 2012.

http://immigrationroad.com/immigration-news.php

12/09/2011: January 2012 Visa Bulletin Released

China and India EB2 leaped forward nearly 10 months to January 1, 2009! According to the State Department: "The China and India Employment Second preference cut-off date has been advanced at a rapid rate in recent months. As previously noted, this action was intended to generate significant levels of new filings for adjustment of status at U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) offices. USCIS has reported that the rate of new filings is currently far below that which they had anticipated, prompting an even more aggressive movement of the cut-off date for January and possibly beyond. While this action greatly increases the potential for an eventual retrogression of the cut-off at some point during the year, it also provides the best opportunity to utilize all numbers available under the annual limit."

shashinehal,
I wouldn't count this as until March 2008(Dec'11 VB) but until 30 OCT 2007 (Nov'11 VB).

I am not sure about the expectations from USCIS/DOS but there is no way that they can gauge the demand coming for EB2IC filers with PD between 01NOV07 and 15MAR2008 in 5 business days after they are eligible to file!

Personally i am for more aggressive movement followed by retro, this way every one will get a chance to file and also from inventory reports we will get visibility into EB485 demand.

[codesmith]

Can Business vas B1 be considered as "Legal non-immigrant"

For 485 filing my lawyer is asking for previous approval notices of Legal non-immigrant visa, I don't have it for Business visa. I want to know if that's problem ?
Does B1 visa alppln get any approval notice like H1 or L1 ?

[suninphx]

shashinehal,
I wouldn't count this as until March 2008(Dec'11 VB) but until 30 OCT 2007 (Nov'11 VB).

I am not sure about the expectations from USCIS/DOS but there is no way that they can gauge the demand coming for EB2IC filers with PD between 01NOV07 and 15MAR2008 in 5 business days after they are eligible to file!

Personally i am for more aggressive movement followed by retro, this way every one will get a chance to file and also from inventory reports we will get visibility into EB485 demand.

Agree with Veni that USCIS may be referring to actual demand till 30 OCT 2007. But that makes it even more interesting because it indicates that demand destruction could have started as early as post Jul 2007 and also PWMBs are lesser than they (and we) expected. Wish there was much more transparency in the published data.

[DonDron]

shashinehal,
I wouldn't count this as until March 2008(Dec'11 VB) but until 30 OCT 2007 (Nov'11 VB).

I am not sure about the expectations from USCIS/DOS but there is no way that they can gauge the demand coming for EB2IC filers with PD between 01NOV07 and 15MAR2008 in 5 business days after they are eligible to file!

Personally i am for more aggressive movement followed by retro, this way every one will get a chance to file and also from inventory reports we will get visibility into EB485 demand.

Couldn't agree more Veni. And perhaps that was the reason why they didn't release demand data. As there is no point of releases if you don't have it or is unchanged. CO considers pre-adjusted 485 (ready for visa allocation) as demand rather than number of applications filed. In October, he did mentioned that, it takes 4-5 months for them to work on the applications and decide if it is eligible for GC or not. Considering that, he predicted that there won't be huge demand surge and hence it makes sense for him to keep moving.

Given that this is holiday season, I am not sure on how many applications they will be able to work on, if that number is still low then I believe CO will move dates further in Feb visa bulletin.

[imdeng]

Way too much pessimism. A whole lots of bills pass the Senate after initial holds by some or the other Senators - I would suggest checking the history of passed bills in Thomas. Also - 112th Congress continues until the new Congress comes in only in Jan 2013 - Congress' terms are for two years. Time is not a problem for HR-3012.

EAD/AP is for two years.


My personal belief is that it is unlikely that 3012 will pass the senate, Chuck Grassley has put a hold on it, so it is unlikely that it will even come up for discussion even in the judicial committee let alone the senate, also even if comes up to vote and if there are amendments it has to go back to house for approval, all of this is improbabale, if not impossible to happen before 20th jan when new congress starts.
Having said that i think the forward movement is purely due to reasons unknown to us but hopefully known to CO, definitely not due to 3012. I believe a little bit in demand destruction, but not a whole lot. at the same time it seems EB1 and EB2 ROW have not gone down drastically. So I think we should count our blessings and make sure we get 485 filed and at least get EAD/AP
Between, Teddy and other Nov Filers who got their EAD/AP cards... is it 1 or 2 years?
Gurus please give your input

[sweetanju4uu]

Hi All,

My husband filed for GC this year in EB2 and his PD is May 2011. He has his I-140 approved and waiting for the date to become current. I am on H1b and it would expire in Oct 2013.

My question is this: Since I have not filed for GC on my own, am I creating a risk for myself? Should I become confident seeing the recent moves and not apply and think I may get atleast EAD status along with my husband before my H1b expires? Or should I start applying for Labor and the whole works, freshly?

Please let me know your thoughts and analysis Gurus..!

Thanks,
Anju

[03May07]

EAD/AP is for two years.

Folks from a thread I'm following on trackitt, are getting the combo card (EAD/AP) for 1 year. I'm stilling waiting for mine.

[SaturnRing]

Hi All,

My husband filed for GC this year in EB2 and his PD is May 2011. He has his I-140 approved and waiting for the date to become current. I am on H1b and it would expire in Oct 2013.

My question is this: Since I have not filed for GC on my own, am I creating a risk for myself? Should I become confident seeing the recent moves and not apply and think I may get atleast EAD status along with my husband before my H1b expires? Or should I start applying for Labor and the whole works, freshly?

Please let me know your thoughts and analysis Gurus..!

Thanks,
Anju

If I were you, I would watch for the outcome of HR 3012. If for some reason, that doesn't go through, then you are looking at a time period of PD+ (3 or 4) yrs for EAD and 4-5 yrs for GC. So I would start GC ASAP depending on the outcome of HR 3012.

[sweetanju4uu]

If I were you, I would watch for the outcome of HR 3012. If for some reason, that doesn't go through, then you are looking at a time period of PD+ (3 or 4) yrs for EAD and 4-5 yrs for GC. So I would start GC ASAP depending on the outcome of HR 3012.

SaturnRing,

Thank you for the quick reply. I will watch for that and keep my fingers crossed.

[qesehmk]

B1 is a non-immigrant visa. The only reason USCIS/DOS want that is to ensure you haven't previously violated your non-immigrant status.

So if you never had a B1 thats not a problem.
Can Business vas B1 be considered as "Legal non-immigrant"

For 485 filing my lawyer is asking for previous approval notices of Legal non-immigrant visa, I don't have it for Business visa. I want to know if that's problem ?
Does B1 visa alppln get any approval notice like H1 or L1 ?

[codesmith]

Thanks Q for reply.
I did come to US on B1 for few months. Before that I came on L1.
I've L1 notice but I don't have B1 notice. I'm sending L1 and H1 notices to lawyer ..
My qstn was is it a problem if I can not provide B1 notice ?


B1 is a non-immigrant visa. The only reason USCIS/DOS want that is to ensure you haven't previously violated your non-immigrant status.

So if you never had a B1 thats not a problem.

[Pdmar08]

Thanks Q for reply.
I did come to US on B1 for few months. Before that I came on L1.
I've L1 notice but I don't have B1 notice. I'm sending L1 and H1 notices to lawyer ..
My qstn was is it a problem if I can not provide B1 notice ?

I dont think there is an approval notice for B1 just like B2(visitor). You go for interview and then get it stamped in passport.

[vizcard]

As per the news below it seems that there are fewer applications than expected until 2008 March, which made USCIS to jump for 9 months. If predication's go correct that due to economy slow down there was 40% down in terms of number of new applications than dates might move again in feb 2012.



http://immigrationroad.com/immigration-news.php

12/09/2011: January 2012 Visa Bulletin Released

China and India EB2 leaped forward nearly 10 months to January 1, 2009! According to the State Department: "The China and India Employment Second preference cut-off date has been advanced at a rapid rate in recent months. As previously noted, this action was intended to generate significant levels of new filings for adjustment of status at U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) offices. USCIS has reported that the rate of new filings is currently far below that which they had anticipated, prompting an even more aggressive movement of the cut-off date for January and possibly beyond. While this action greatly increases the potential for an eventual retrogression of the cut-off at some point during the year, it also provides the best opportunity to utilize all numbers available under the annual limit."

The words in red are interesting to me. I'd love to see the underlying data and where our assumptions have gone wrong (but oh so right!). But that will be after I finish my paperwork :)

[codesmith]

I dont think there is an approval notice for B1 just like B2(visitor). You go for interview and then get it stamped in passport.

Thanks Pdmar08, even I think the same, I wasn't sure.. did not remember... if at all I got the B1 notice. Perhaps, I'm getting old :).

[wantgcnow]

Anyone whose law firm is fragomen and has been current in the latest bulletin?

[vizcard]

Anyone whose law firm is fragomen and has been current in the latest bulletin?

My firm uses Fragomen. What's up?

[venkimakthal]

Anyone whose law firm is fragomen and has been current in the latest bulletin?

My firm also uses Fragomen.

[EB2-03252009]

Hello everyone, my priority data is 25th March 2009, if the dates move in the next bulletin and if I become current, how do I go about?

1) I am on H1B and it is valid until Sept 2013, I went to India early this year and got my passport stamped, my question is do I need to apply for AP even though I have my passport stamped?

2) I am planning to go to India for like 3 weeks in the last week of January 2012, do you think that is fine, or shall I wait till the visa bulletin and buy my tickets and plan accordingly?

3) I am single and planning to get married to my girl friend(lives in India) end of next year, do you people think if it is okay for me to apply if my date become current and then later add my wife’s info late next year or early 2013, do you think it will be fine without any hassles?

Would appreciate any replies. Thank you! :)

[sdesh005]

Since people have been asking interpretation of latest VB I have given my perspective in the header of hte thread.

So Q, it looks like any movement further into PD of 2009 for EB-2I is unlikely and even if it happens, might stay there only for a month or so? Are there any predictions as to when dates might again go into summer 2009 after the retrogression that's most likely coming up soon?

And this question is obviously in context of non-passing of HR 3012 anytime soon...so assuming business as usual.

[vizcard]

Hello everyone, my priority data is 25th March 2009, if the dates move in the next bulletin and if I become current, how do I go about?

1) I am on H1B and it is valid until Sept 2013, I went to India early this year and got my passport stamped, my question is do I need to apply for AP even though I have my passport stamped?

2) I am planning to go to India for like 3 weeks in the last week of January 2012, do you think that is fine, or shall I wait till the visa bulletin and buy my tickets and plan accordingly?

3) I am single and planning to get married to my girl friend(lives in India) end of next year, do you people think if it is okay for me to apply if my date become current and then later add my wife’s info late next year or early 2013, do you think it will be fine without any hassles?

Would appreciate any replies. Thank you! :)

1. You don't have to apply for AP but now with the combined EAD/ AP card, you might as well. You can still use your H1B stamp to travel.
2. I would wait for the bulletin. Ordinarily I would say go but who knows what's going on with the dates these days. You will need those 3 weeks to get your paperwork in order as there is a serious possibility for retrogression. You could potentially buy refundable tickets to block off your seats and then cancel and rebook at lowest fare.
3. If you get current, please apply. You can always add your fiacee after the wedding. I'm not sure what the process is or how long it takes though. Alternately, you could get a civil wedding done now and have the religious ceremony later.

[EB2-03252009]

Thanks for the reply vizcard!

[nishant2200]

By last week of Jan, much before that in fact, there will be February VB out.

If February VB does not make you current, [break] i.e. go ahead with whatever you were going to do.

If February VB makes you current:
- need to be physically present in the USA on the received date of the 485 application. Since you would be current in February only, it would mean that if you make it the earliest possible date of Feb 1st received, you would have to wait till around 10th February to actually see that received date on the filing receipt, for the complete peace of mind.
- After this around in a month, you get FP notice. You don't want to miss that, else your application maybe considered null and void.
- Also you would have to enter with H1B stamp, as your AP would not be with you if issued meanwhile. I am not sure if you are making a foreign trip in meanwhile and also have applied for AP, what that means for the "validity" of that AP application.
- vizcard suggested civil wedding, but I would highly suggest at least some sort of small event with religious overtones and photos etc taken, with wedding certificate duly signed by the priest etc. You want a strong proof of marriage, especially since yours would be a recent marriage. Be ready for potential RFE for proving bona-fide marriage also, in which case, the stronger proof of marriage you have, the better.

I understand your dilemma, if not for the marriage, I would have just said, wait until you get EAD/AP card, and then go to India. Now marriage part, I think as long as you get married before your 485 is approved, you can add your wife when/if dates are again/were always current. A negative side is that if dates retrogress, your wife would have to wait for H4 on a year or two, as well as you have to keep your H1 valid. Others may comment on this.


Hello everyone, my priority data is 25th March 2009, if the dates move in the next bulletin and if I become current, how do I go about?

1) I am on H1B and it is valid until Sept 2013, I went to India early this year and got my passport stamped, my question is do I need to apply for AP even though I have my passport stamped?

2) I am planning to go to India for like 3 weeks in the last week of January 2012, do you think that is fine, or shall I wait till the visa bulletin and buy my tickets and plan accordingly?

3) I am single and planning to get married to my girl friend(lives in India) end of next year, do you people think if it is okay for me to apply if my date become current and then later add my wife’s info late next year or early 2013, do you think it will be fine without any hassles?

Would appreciate any replies. Thank you! :)


1. You don't have to apply for AP but now with the combined EAD/ AP card, you might as well. You can still use your H1B stamp to travel.
2. I would wait for the bulletin. Ordinarily I would say go but who knows what's going on with the dates these days. You will need those 3 weeks to get your paperwork in order as there is a serious possibility for retrogression. You could potentially buy refundable tickets to block off your seats and then cancel and rebook at lowest fare.
3. If you get current, please apply. You can always add your fiacee after the wedding. I'm not sure what the process is or how long it takes though. Alternately, you could get a civil wedding done now and have the religious ceremony later.

[pdmay2008]

Gurus,

Sorry to post it here. I posted in different thread and don't see much traffic in there to get answer for this. Posting it here, please feel free to move it to appropriate thread.

With gods grace and with all your support my PD bacame current as of Jan 1 2012.

My current H1B is expiring on Feb 18th 2012. I will be filing my I-485 on Jan 1st.

When is the best time to file for H1B extension. I know that I won't be getting my EAD by Feb 18th 2012.

Option 1 : Apply H1 extension now and apply for I-485 after we get the receipt for H1B extension
Oprion 2 : Apply I-485 now with the current H1B approval notice which is valid till Feb-18-2012. And apply for H1B extension with the pending I-485 status.

If I take Option 2 I can apply for H1B extension in regular processing before end of Jan 2012, so that I can get my H1B extension receipt notice to maintain my working visa status. Once I get my EAD I will move on to that. But if something happens to H1B extension do I need to worry about it after I moved on to EAD. Will I be out of status between Feb 18th 2012 and until I get my EAD. Hoepfully not, as we can work using H1B extension receipt correct.

Please advise.

[wantgcnow]

My firm uses Fragomen. What's up?

Did Fragomen guys contact regarding the next steps?

[wantgcnow]

My firm also uses Fragomen.

Did fragomen guys contact you regarding next steps?

[srimurthy]

How manyyears left on your H1 after 2013? Based on that it may be decided if a normal H1 extension would suffice until May'2011 becomes current to be eligible for EAD / AP.?
If you are near to the 6 years bracket then a I-140 would give you a chance to get H1 extended in 2013 by 3 years and by that time the EAD via spouse should be available.


If I were you, I would watch for the outcome of HR 3012. If for some reason, that doesn't go through, then you are looking at a time period of PD+ (3 or 4) yrs for EAD and 4-5 yrs for GC. So I would start GC ASAP depending on the outcome of HR 3012.

[srimurthy]

We do not get approval notices for B1 / B2. I have a few B1's stamped and never had a notice because it doesn't go to USCIS for labor certifications.

I dont think there is an approval notice for B1 just like B2(visitor). You go for interview and then get it stamped in passport.

[vizcard]

Did Fragomen guys contact regarding the next steps?

I haven't heard from Fragomen since the bulletin came out but I did get a list of documents that they need for I485. I've sent them a couple of emails about document format (birth certificate and affidavit), but I haven't heard back from them about that.

[wantgcnow]

I haven't heard from Fragomen since the bulletin came out but I did get a list of documents that they need for I485. I've sent them a couple of emails about document format (birth certificate and affidavit), but I haven't heard back from them about that.

I did the same too.. they haven't contacted me yet but did get a list of docs before the bulletin came out...PM me If you do hear from them and how things go..I will keep you updated.....I know that they are very slow....for one of my collegue who got current in December bulletin (Nov 10) they haven't finished filing yet...

[Sudheer]

All,

Long time follower and first-time poster here. First of all thank you to Q for creating this forum and to all the other gurus and contributors. Visiting this forum and following all the predictions and calculations has become a daily ritual for me ever since I stumbled upon it a few months ago.


I am in EB2-I and my PD is April 6, 2009. With this huge surge in EB2-IC movement for the January bulletin, I am now only 3 months away and cautiously optimistic about my chances in the next couple of months. I have a question regarding my immigration situation and am hoping to get some insight from members who have either been through or heard of similar experience. My wife changed her status from H4 to F1 a few months ago and started on her Masters in this fall semester. I have heard and read in a lot of forums that F1 is a "non-immigrant intent" visa. I am worried that, when the time comes for us to file for 485 (hopefully soon), our application might run into rough weather since my wife is on F1 and not H4. Can someone throw some light on this and suggest the best course of action for our situation?

Thank you.

I am also in some what similar situation. My wife changed her status from H4 to F1 (infamous UNVA) and later on she applied for COS to switch back to H4. However, the COS application is still pending. I got the confirmation from my attorney that she can also apply for I-485 along with me.

[imdeng]

I am still trying to wrap my head around the movement in last VB. Somehow the whole thing is not sitting well with our well established impression of CO/DoS as being ultra-conservative in their approach. If we think through the timeline, this is what happened:
1. Early Summer 2011, low demand from EB1 prompted admission of large SOFAD and early PD movement.
2. PD movements continued to be aggressive until USCIS found some extra demand
3. PD stalled at the end of FY and we fail to cross 07/07
4. CO goes for Quarterly SOFAD in the new FY and also recognizes the need for building inventory for the coming SOFAD
5. Oct, Nov, Dec VB (movement up to 15-Mar-08) was measured movement for building inventory only
6. Gets info on low number of applications against Oct and Nov VB Bulletin (upto PD 01-Nov-07), pushes PD to 01-Jan-09 in Jab VB to account for low number of filings.

Except Step 6, everything else above is conservative. What has changed for CO to undertake a drastic 10 month PD movement? Especially since it is Jan VB and CO still has a couple of months to move PD and ensure that visa numbers are not wasted. Just saying its discretion does not cut it since the current action goes against what we have observed to be CO's primary approach.

If CO had been true to his approach, and needed PD to go to 01-Jan-09, then CO could have done 4 months in Jan, 4 months in Feb and 2 months in Mar. Why this hurry of 10 months in one shot? The explanation I have is that for whatever reason (demand destruction, building up to some inventory number, possibility of HR-3012), CO wants to go further than 01-Jan-09, that why this 10 month hit now and possibly another 6 months in Feb and 3 months in Mar (small chance). I still do not expect my PD (Aug-09) to be in line for being current this FY, but I imagine people in first half of 2009 better get all their documentation ready.

[venkimakthal]

Did fragomen guys contact you regarding next steps?

My PD 04/08/08, Fragomen expecting my date become current after Dec VB, they send me AOS Questionnaire, Birth Affidavit, requesting $2140 check "Fragomen, Del Rey, Bernsen and Loewy" (they will cut the checks to USCIS), 6 photographs and medicals.

[imdeng]

Folks - we have a post-485 thread as well as a "Prepare for 485" thread. Both are well visited. Please consider asking any non-emergency questions in the appropriate thread. Thanks.

[bieber]

Teddy, Nishanth

have you guys received FP notice? if possible, can any one give the estimate on how much the time gap between receipt date and finger print notice and actual fp appointment

I will delete the post as soon as possible, sorry for other folks who would get mad for non-calculation post (just like i was mad last month)

[srisaikrupa]

Guru's,

MY PD is 04/02/2009, can anyone see my PD being current in Feb or March VB??

Any insights is greatly appreciated.

[Pdmar08]

Need Quick help.
On 485 application there is a line saying enter ur name in native alphabet if applicable....so do they want it in Marathi(my mother tongue) or hindi or is that not applicable...freaking out.

[RRRRRR]

Gurus,

Sorry to post it here. I posted in different thread and don't see much traffic in there to get answer for this. Posting it here, please feel free to move it to appropriate thread.

With gods grace and with all your support my PD bacame current as of Jan 1 2012.

My current H1B is expiring on Feb 18th 2012. I will be filing my I-485 on Jan 1st.

When is the best time to file for H1B extension. I know that I won't be getting my EAD by Feb 18th 2012.

Option 1 : Apply H1 extension now and apply for I-485 after we get the receipt for H1B extension
Oprion 2 : Apply I-485 now with the current H1B approval notice which is valid till Feb-18-2012. And apply for H1B extension with the pending I-485 status.

If I take Option 2 I can apply for H1B extension in regular processing before end of Jan 2012, so that I can get my H1B extension receipt notice to maintain my working visa status. Once I get my EAD I will move on to that. But if something happens to H1B extension do I need to worry about it after I moved on to EAD. Will I be out of status between Feb 18th 2012 and until I get my EAD. Hoepfully not, as we can work using H1B extension receipt correct.

Please advise.

Hi,

I would suggest go with Option 2. Once you receive the 485 Receipt Notice then immediately file your H1 with regular processing(reason is in case you file for premium and it gets rejected for some reason then you might be in trouble and this will save you money too, also this will buy you more time and you may get your EAD/AP by the time you get you H1 approval) .

I believe Option 2 is a much cleaner approach and less complicated. In any case check with lawyer regarding this

[RRRRRR]

I was just going through my Documents, just noticed something with my I-94
I got my I-94 till Feb 2013 on my old passport (valid till Feb 2011), Visa was valid till Sep 2011. This didn't made sense to me.
I have applied for New passport and got it in Dec 2010
I have renewed & got approval of my new H1 till Sept 2014 with new I94 attached along with I-797

My question is
1. Looks like immigration officer gave I94 till Feb 2013 instead Feb 2011 (Passport expiry), does it affect me in any way during my 485 process?
2. I am current as of Jan 2011, which I94 will play now?
3. What ever immigration officer puts in I94 is that final even if its date which doesn't makes sense?


I was just looking at it and thought of getting your input on this, your help/input is greatly appreciated

I-94 which came with your Latest I797 overrides the older one. When you leave US you need to submit both old and new one at the POE.

[grnwtg]

As per my lawyer, write your name in your mother tongue ( Marathi in your case ), i do know many famous attorneys who did not say a word about this question( feed back from my friends). But i guess it makes sense to just write it in your Mother tongue script.

PS: Let us all please discuss 485 related question in appropriate thread. I know that thread is not active( nobody cared to answer my question) and no one want to post there ( including myself)
Moderators i....s there any way we can make I485 related threads Active??


Need Quick help.
On 485 application there is a line saying enter ur name in native alphabet if applicable....so do they want it in Marathi(my mother tongue) or hindi or is that not applicable...freaking out.

[msdhoni]

Hi... I am new to this forum, I have a question.

I am currently working for Employer A and have EB3I perm and 140 approved with PD Aug 2008.

I am in the process of porting as EB2I future employment thru Employer B, I have got my perm approved thru employer B and yet to file I140. Now, since dates have moved to Jan 2009, can I file my EB2 140 and 485 concurrently in Jan.

Gurus your views pls!!

[srisaikrupa]

Guru's,

MY PD is 04/02/2009, can anyone see my PD being current in Feb or March VB??

Any insights is greatly appreciated.

Can somebody throw some light in to the scenario??

[visagcinfo]

Theoretically, Yes.

PS: I don't consider myself as an expert, but you want to check with your (or, company B's) lawyer to avoid loosing time.


Hi... I am new to this forum, I have a question.

I am currently working for Employer A and have EB3I perm and 140 approved with PD Aug 2008.

I am in the process of porting as EB2I future employment thru Employer B, I have got my perm approved thru employer B and yet to file I140. Now, since dates have moved to Jan 2009, can I file my EB2 140 and 485 concurrently in Jan.

Gurus your views pls!!

[TeddyKoochu]

Hi... I am new to this forum, I have a question.

I am currently working for Employer A and have EB3I perm and 140 approved with PD Aug 2008.

I am in the process of porting as EB2I future employment thru Employer B, I have got my perm approved thru employer B and yet to file I140. Now, since dates have moved to Jan 2009, can I file my EB2 140 and 485 concurrently in Jan.

Gurus your views pls!!

By all means you should try to convince company B to file I140 and 485 concurrently because the dates may retrogress at some point of time. By concurrent filing you can guarantee EAD / AP for yourself.

[leo07]

Absolutely YES. Be on top of it. Dates won't stay there unless the Immigration bill passes.

Hi... I am new to this forum, I have a question.

I am currently working for Employer A and have EB3I perm and 140 approved with PD Aug 2008.

I am in the process of porting as EB2I future employment thru Employer B, I have got my perm approved thru employer B and yet to file I140. Now, since dates have moved to Jan 2009, can I file my EB2 140 and 485 concurrently in Jan.

Gurus your views pls!!

[leo07]

Now we know for sure that Dates will retrogress. Just a matter of time. Folks who are Current don't waste any time in filing your APPs.

The words in red are interesting to me. I'd love to see the underlying data and where our assumptions have gone wrong (but oh so right!). But that will be after I finish my paperwork :)

[imdeng]

Ron Gotcher has an interesting response to someone asking whether PDs will continue to progress or whether there will be some retrogression. Here is what he said:

I think that it is going to continue to progress. In order for a retrogression to be needed, the USCIS will have to improve its I-485 processing times. I think we can take it to the bank that they are not capable or willing to do that.

Hmm... I guess he is saying that retrogression is not needed at the moment since USCIS is not ready to ask for visa numbers after processing 485s received this FY. Since Jan will bring new Quarterly spillover visa numbers for EB2IC, retrogression may not be needed until the current VB intake gets processed (Jan-12 + 6 months?). So we may have PD move forward a little or retrogress in late summer once all the spillovers are allotted and no more visa numbers are available. Thoughts?

Ron further continues in another post regarding possibility of retrogression to 2007 or 2008:

IF there is a retrogression, I doubt that it will be that severe. Again, in order for there to be a retrogression, you have to believe that the USCIS will do its job promptly and efficiently. OK, stop laughing. I meant that seriously.
Link to thread: http://www.immigration-information.com/forums/showthread.php?t=15831

[imdeng]

Another interesting tidbit from Ron Gotcher. Someone asked him about demand in 2008, 2009 PDs. He said the following:


The problem there is that we don't know how many of those PERMs were EB3 to EB2 upgrade cases. According to the Visa Office, possibly as many as 70% were filed on behalf of people who already had EB3 adjustments pending and wanted to upgrade to EB2. If so, then the potential demand is much smaller than expected.

I am not sure where that 70% figure came from. If that number is high enough (even if not 70%) then that will explain why USCIS is seeing low 485 demand this FY.
Link: http://www.immigration-information.com/forums/showthread.php?t=15693&page=2

[Pdmar08]

thanks for the reply
can you please point me to the post. i will search myself. it would be great if you know
sorry for the delay, have been swamped at work.
It was by RamChan on the thread Prepare to file or something.

pasting below.
As the dates are expected to move fast for the next few months, lets prepare for the documents required to file 485.

The following is a generic list of documents required for applying for 485/AoS application:

Form I-485
Birth Certificate
Copy of Passport page with nonimmigrant visa
Color photographs as per new guidelines
Fingerprints ( USCIS will notify when and where to provide finger Print)
Fee : Non refundable Fee: $985( Effective Nov, 23, 2010) by check or money order
Form G-325A, Biographic Information (for those between the ages of 14 and 79 years)
Employment Letter - on employer's letterhead. This letter should confirm that the job on which the visa petition is based is available to you and it should mention your salary.
Copy of your I-797 Notice of Action, showing that your I-140, Immigrant Petition for Alien Worker, has been received or approved by INS (As of July 31, 2002, an interim rule published in the Federal Register allows for concurrent filing of Form I-485 with Form I-140, if a visa number is immediately available)
Form I-693, Medical Examination of Aliens Seeking Adjustment of Status. ( Must be completed by the USCIS authorized physician)
Form G-28 Notice of Entry of Appearance as Attorney or Representative. This will enable your lawyer to represent you.
Form I-765, Application for Employment Authorization or EAD ( Optional, if you want Employment Authorization while the case is pending)
Form I-131, Application for Travel Document ( Optional, if you want Travel document in case may have to travel out of USA while case is pending)
You might be required to submit copies of marriage or divorce certificate, death certificate (of spouse), birth certificates for children and certified copies of any arrests or criminal records, depends on your case.

[Pdmar08]

Makes Sense, thank you for the prompt response.

[imdeng]

EB3I IS actually moving faster than just 2.8K/year. In last one year, EB3I inventory has gone down from 59K to 53K - double the usual county quota. Even with people falling out from inventory with porting, a 2.8K quota per year does not do much for the really dense 2002/2003 for EB3I.


Now here is a silly question: Can this be corroborated from the demand data in EB3-I? What I am saying here is that as many as 70% people must already have gotten their green cards (most of them will have pre-July 2007 priority date). So why EB3-I is not progressing somewhat more rapidly? Or is it the case that perhaps folks from 2002 did not really upgrade, and it started from 2003 onwards?

[GhostWriter]

imdeng/Teddy
Here is a question. If a person in EB3-IC had a priority date of lets say 2005 or later, he became current in July 2007 and filed I-485. But lets say he still filed a PERM in EB2 with a PD in 2008 or 2009. EB3-C is now at Oct-04 and Eb3-I is at Aug-02. This person would have an EAD but still not a GC. So now when his EB2 PD becomes current will he still not be counted as demand. He will eventually use a GC under EB2 and not EB3, right or am i wrong here. So only if EB3 porter had a PD before 2002 in case of India, he will already have a GC and his EB2 Perm will not create a demand, but otherwise it will use a EB2 visa number. Can you clarify if this is the case or not.


Another interesting tidbit from Ron Gotcher. Someone asked him about demand in 2008, 2009 PDs. He said the following:



I am not sure where that 70% figure came from. If that number is high enough (even if not 70%) then that will explain why USCIS is seeing low 485 demand this FY.
Link: http://www.immigration-information.com/forums/showthread.php?t=15693&page=2

[gc2008]

Hello Guys,
I have been following this site for so long but never posted. I know its the wrong thread to ask this question but as its has more traffic, I am posting my question here. First of all congratulations to all who became current and good luck who are still waiting. As many of you, my PD also became current in the latest visa bulletin. I recently went through H1B extension and had the title as senior programmer analyst. When we applied for PERM and I 140 3 years back, the title was little different than what was applied for my recent H1B extension. However, the job duties are same. In 485 form, for the current occupation, my attorney said that my current title should be filled (which is senior programmer analyst) and not the title which was mentioned in PERM. Is it OK. As per him, current position can be different from that of GC. Is he correct?

[dorais]

I looked at Ron Gotcher's response too and it was very interesting.

If we assume that the next visa bulletin would be released on 13th Jan, what new information would the CO have that would help him make his decision?

Thanks.

[kd2008]

Trackitt trend based on PD for EB2 I+C

PERM tracker: EB2 I+C
CY 2008 2185 + 112
CY 2009 707 + 63
CY 2010 616 + 27
CY 2011 1184 + 30 so far

I-140 tracker: EB2 I+C
CY 2008 687 + 62
CY 2009 440 + 23
CY 2010 431 + 19
CY 2011 329 + 15 so far ..but again many PERMs are not yet approved

The above trend shows very poor "conversion" of PERMS into I-140s in 2008 but better in 2009 and very good in 2010.

Spec, Teddy, Veni what do you think of this?

I have considered total # of applications based on PD - included approved, pending, denied.

May be there is a reason why people don't add their case to I-140 tracker. I don't know. Qualitatively speaking I am inclined to believe this trend.

Please discuss.

[zenmaster]

Trackitt trend based on PD for EB2 I+C

PERM tracker: EB2 I+C
CY 2008 2185 + 112
CY 2009 707 + 63
CY 2010 616 + 27
CY 2011 1184 + 30 so far

I-140 tracker: EB2 I+C
CY 2008 687 + 62
CY 2009 440 + 23
CY 2010 431 + 19
CY 2011 329 + 15 so far ..but again many PERMs are not yet approved

The above trend shows very poor "conversion" of PERMS into I-140s in 2008 but better in 2009 and very good in 2010.

Spec, Teddy, Veni what do you think of this?

I have considered total # of applications based on PD - included approved, pending, denied.

May be there is a reason why people don't add their case to I-140 tracker. I don't know. Qualitatively speaking I am inclined to believe this trend.

Please discuss.

Kd, I think the "very poor" conversion in 2008 actually could be true. My reasoning would be that 2008/09 were worst hit years w.r.t. recession(loosing/changing jobs). It is very much possible that people had to change employers even before filing/approval of I-140. There wont be much final demand in such a scenario.

Just chipped in with my 2 cents. I am sure S,Q,T,V have much better thoughts on this.

[veni001]

Ron Gotcher has an interesting response to someone asking whether PDs will continue to progress or whether there will be some retrogression. Here is what he said:


Hmm... I guess he is saying that retrogression is not needed at the moment since USCIS is not ready to ask for visa numbers after processing 485s received this FY. Since Jan will bring new Quarterly spillover visa numbers for EB2IC, retrogression may not be needed until the current VB intake gets processed (Jan-12 + 6 months?). So we may have PD move forward a little or retrogress in late summer once all the spillovers are allotted and no more visa numbers are available. Thoughts?

Ron further continues in another post regarding possibility of retrogression to 2007 or 2008:

Link to thread: http://www.immigration-information.com/forums/showthread.php?t=15831


All I have to say is WOW!!!

2009 folks can start partying if this is true indeed.

Now here is a silly question: Can this be corroborated from the demand data in EB3-I? What I am saying here is that as many as 70% people must already have gotten their green cards (most of them will have pre-July 2007 priority date). So why EB3-I is not progressing somewhat more rapidly? Or is it the case that perhaps folks from 2002 did not really upgrade, and it started from 2003 onwards?

And what about the demand numbers? If those people got approved and got their GCs in EB2, wouldn't EB3-I reflect it? Have we seen any evidence of this?

Final silly question: People here say that about 3K/year cases from EB3 get upgraded to EB2. So post 2007, around 12K cases got upgraded (it has to be much more as the upgrades were far more in the aftermath of July 2007 bus). So we should have counted these cases in the 2008/2009 PERM data and actually subtracted those porting numbers? Is that what Ron is saying? If so, how come the Gurus missed it here?


imdeng/Teddy
Here is a question. If a person in EB3-IC had a priority date of lets say 2005 or later, he became current in July 2007 and filed I-485. But lets say he still filed a PERM in EB2 with a PD in 2008 or 2009. EB3-C is now at Oct-04 and Eb3-I is at Aug-02. This person would have an EAD but still not a GC. So now when his EB2 PD becomes current will he still not be counted as demand. He will eventually use a GC under EB2 and not EB3, right or am i wrong here. So only if EB3 porter had a PD before 2002 in case of India, he will already have a GC and his EB2 Perm will not create a demand, but otherwise it will use a EB2 visa number. Can you clarify if this is the case or not.


sportsfan33,
That is a very good point. One thing Ron doesn't understand is CY-FY breakdown of PERM approvals for 2008 & 2009 PD's

For IC filers with PD2008 approval breakdown is as follows

Total CY approvals to-date = 27,715

FY2008 = 9,464 (33.9%)
FY2009 = 12,273 (44.1%)
FY2010 = 4,368 (15.5%)
FY2011 = 1,610 (5.7%)


For IC files with PD2009 approval breakdown is as follows

Total CY approvals to-date = 18,789

FY2009 = 10 (0%)
FY2010 = 17,223 (92%)
FY2011 = 1,556 (8%)


For ROW-M-P files with PD2008 approval breakdown is as follows

Total CY approvals to-date = 37,480

FY2008 = 13,895 (36.9%)
FY2009 = 14,059 (37.5%)
FY2010 = 6,574 (17.4%)
FY2011 = 2,952 (7.7%)


For ROW-M-P files with PD2009 approval breakdown is as follows

Total CY approvals to-date = 22,936

FY2009 = 8 (0%)
FY2010 = 21,199 (92.2%)
FY2011 = 1,729 (7.5%)

As we can see most of PD2008 approvals are from FY2009&FY2010 also most of PD2009 approvals are from FY2010. In addition FY2010 and FY2011 are the two great years for SOFAD.

If what ever Ron's assumption(guess) is correct should have made significant dent across the board for EB3, which is not the case based on inventory reports!

[BBear123]

Trackitt trend based on PD for EB2 I+C

PERM tracker: EB2 I+C
CY 2008 2185 + 112
CY 2009 707 + 63
CY 2010 616 + 27
CY 2011 1184 + 30 so far

I-140 tracker: EB2 I+C
CY 2008 687 + 62
CY 2009 440 + 23
CY 2010 431 + 19
CY 2011 329 + 15 so far ..but again many PERMs are not yet approved

The above trend shows very poor "conversion" of PERMS into I-140s in 2008 but better in 2009 and very good in 2010.

Spec, Teddy, Veni what do you think of this?

I have considered total # of applications based on PD - included approved, pending, denied.

May be there is a reason why people don't add their case to I-140 tracker. I don't know. Qualitatively speaking I am inclined to believe this trend.

Please discuss.

I am not sure you can draw correlation from an online database that is purely voluntary. It seems like there was a drop in PERM applications approved in 2009 from the DOL statistics but that's about all that you can safely say.

[suninphx]

Trackitt trend based on PD for EB2 I+C

PERM tracker: EB2 I+C
CY 2008 2185 + 112
CY 2009 707 + 63
CY 2010 616 + 27
CY 2011 1184 + 30 so far

I-140 tracker: EB2 I+C
CY 2008 687 + 62
CY 2009 440 + 23
CY 2010 431 + 19
CY 2011 329 + 15 so far ..but again many PERMs are not yet approved

The above trend shows very poor "conversion" of PERMS into I-140s in 2008 but better in 2009 and very good in 2010.

Spec, Teddy, Veni what do you think of this?

I have considered total # of applications based on PD - included approved, pending, denied.

May be there is a reason why people don't add their case to I-140 tracker. I don't know. Qualitatively speaking I am inclined to believe this trend.

Please discuss.
KD that's very interesting statistics. Thanks. This is inline with demand destruction theory being discussed extensively recently. There may not be many takers right now as there is no solid data to back this up. So let's wait for some concrete evidence I guess. ( I believe that there is possibility of substantial DD in PD 2008 BTW).

[gc2008]

Hello Guys,
I have been following this site for so long but never posted. I know its the wrong thread to ask this question but as its has more traffic, I am posting my question here. First of all congratulations to all who became current and good luck who are still waiting. As many of you, my PD also became current in the latest visa bulletin. I recently went through H1B extension and had the title as senior programmer analyst. When we applied for PERM and I 140 3 years back, the title was little different than what was applied for my recent H1B extension. However, the job duties are same. In 485 form, for the current occupation, my attorney said that my current title should be filled (which is senior programmer analyst) and not the title which was mentioned in PERM. Is it OK. As per him, current position can be different from that of GC. Is he correct?

Please share your experiences or suggestions

Thanks

[kd2008]

Please share your experiences or suggestions

Thanks

Yes it is ok. don't worry about it. Your employment verification letter will list your duties which will be very similar to the PERM job description. Even if the job description is not same, the attorney is never going to willfully lie in your application just so you can get a GC.

[imdeng]

Veni - I am not sure I understood your conclusion. I understand the data you presented and I agree with the statement below - but I am not sure what you are suggesting regarding possibility of a significant demand destruction in 2008.

As we can see most of PD2008 approvals are from FY2009&FY2010 also most of PD2009 approvals are from FY2010. In addition FY2010 and FY2011 are the two great years for SOFAD.

[imdeng]

You are correct - a EB3IC person with PD before 2007 will have an EAD but likely no GC. Any future PERM/I-140 in EB2 will carry the EB3 PD and will become immediately current upon approval and will consume EB2 visa numbers.


imdeng/Teddy
Here is a question. If a person in EB3-IC had a priority date of lets say 2005 or later, he became current in July 2007 and filed I-485. But lets say he still filed a PERM in EB2 with a PD in 2008 or 2009. EB3-C is now at Oct-04 and Eb3-I is at Aug-02. This person would have an EAD but still not a GC. So now when his EB2 PD becomes current will he still not be counted as demand. He will eventually use a GC under EB2 and not EB3, right or am i wrong here. So only if EB3 porter had a PD before 2002 in case of India, he will already have a GC and his EB2 Perm will not create a demand, but otherwise it will use a EB2 visa number. Can you clarify if this is the case or not.

[suninphx]

Veni - I am not sure I understood your conclusion. I understand the data you presented and I agree with the statement below - but I am not sure what you are suggesting regarding possibility of a significant demand destruction in 2008.

Veni - I have same question.

[msdhoni]

Thanks for your reply Teddy. I have this question as my Perm with Employer B is filed in July 2011 and approved. Am I still eligible to file 140 and 485 together thru employer B.


By all means you should try to convince company B to file I140 and 485 concurrently because the dates may retrogress at some point of time. By concurrent filing you can guarantee EAD / AP for yourself.

[TeddyKoochu]

All I have to say is WOW!!!

2009 folks can start partying if this is true indeed.

Now here is a silly question: Can this be corroborated from the demand data in EB3-I? What I am saying here is that as many as 70% people must already have gotten their green cards (most of them will have pre-July 2007 priority date). So why EB3-I is not progressing somewhat more rapidly? Or is it the case that perhaps folks from 2002 did not really upgrade, and it started from 2003 onwards?

And what about the demand numbers? If those people got approved and got their GCs in EB2, wouldn't EB3-I reflect it? Have we seen any evidence of this?

Final silly question: People here say that about 3K/year cases from EB3 get upgraded to EB2. So post 2007, around 12K cases got upgraded (it has to be much more as the upgrades were far more in the aftermath of July 2007 bus). So we should have counted these cases in the 2008/2009 PERM data and actually subtracted those porting numbers? Is that what Ron is saying? If so, how come the Gurus missed it here?


EB3I IS actually moving faster than just 2.8K/year. In last one year, EB3I inventory has gone down from 59K to 53K - double the usual county quota. Even with people falling out from inventory with porting, a 2.8K quota per year does not do much for the really dense 2002/2003 for EB3I.

Guys you have actually described the methodology for the porting calculation. Porting really picked pace after Sep 2009 when clinical approvals started for the first time. In Sep 2009 the entire chunk of Eb2 I/C for 2004 were approved and EB3 became unavailable. So really yes after we cross Sep 2009 we should be deducting 3K from the perm figures assuming the transformation ratio of 1. Since we have not hit this time yet it is really not a factor till 01-JAN-2009. So now if really lesser number of 485's are filed than what comes by the transformation ratio of 1 it can be attributed to demand destruction as people did not have the cushion of EAD / AP. On another note the market was bad for the financial sector, IT was slightly better, definitely not good, 75% of EB2 I is probably IT.

[suninphx]

My point was porting is definitely not a factor in this zone. If lesser number of 485's has really been received then it can be attributed solely to demand destruction. You make a valid point many people who filed perm in 2008 saw cases going into audit, many people may have been in the 6th year of H1 and possibly could not extend it or for many the 1-2 year wait for perm was just too long, so even if the perms finally got approved they were kind of redundant. 75% EB2 - I being IT is just my own guess / gut feel no calculations / numbers to that that’s what I indicated in my post, apologies for not being clearer.
On another note when CO decided the Jan bulletin only the NOV filers PD till 01-NOV-2007 should really have been truly visible to him, the Dec filing was just picking up till that time. The Nov filing is truly restricted to 2007 at that point of time perm was quite normal, even for Dec filers till Mar 15 29008 perm situation was normal it just became worse from Mid 2008. So I guess either there was definite demand destruction, lesser numbers coming based on what they expected (We do not know what was their expectation) or just discretion or a mix of all. However whatever happened is very good for everyone in 2008 it gives people to file for EAD / AP. In fact the wait time for the PWMB's to file for EAD / AP was as much as 4.5 years now it’s down to 2 years if someone has a PD of say Dec 2008 in theory this itself is a great positive from the whole situation.

Teddy- thanks for quick reply. And indeed this move will help lot of people to get EAD/AP. It will also provide us 'actual' 2008 demand. What else we could ask for in current environment.

[doctorp]

Sorry If I am posting on the wrong thread, we received the receipt notices and my wife has a different A number than what was on her EAD while doing OPT, is this common? Should i be worried?

[TheTexan]

Hello friends,

Sorry for posting my question in this thread but I did not get a clear answer on the other one. My question is that my birth certificate is in my mother tongue (marathi), so do we need a certified translation or consulate version of the birth certificate?

Thanks

[imdeng]

I agree - the positive impact of 07/07 for later filers was that there was good visibility and we could do good prediction/calculation. Once 2008 demand is in the Demand Data or 485 Inventory, we should be able to get a better handle on PD movement.

Teddy- thanks for quick reply. And indeed this move will help lot of people to get EAD/AP. It will also provide us 'actual' 2008 demand. What else we could ask for in current environment.
Teddy - you mean 3 years right. A wait time down to 2 years would be awesome.

In fact the wait time for the PWMB's to file for EAD / AP was as much as 4.5 years now it’s down to 2 years if someone has a PD of say Dec 2008 in theory this itself is a great positive from the whole situation.

[wantgcnow]

Sorry to post this here.....does anyone recommend a good place for passport photos for I485? Is costco a good choice?

[goforgreen]

Yes thats true, reducing the wait time for EAD to three years (possibly 2.5 or 2 based on further movement) is quite positive. For me with Dec 2007 PD filing 485 itself was a distant dream leave alone GC. But after this movement the dates will stabilize to 4 year for EAD and 4.5 years for GC. Of course if HR 3012 passes it will be much less, all the more reason we have to support this legislation in Senate. Please call and write to your senators about supporting this. If you are ok with donating to the unnamed forum you can do that as well.

[self.coach]

If you apply for EAD today when can you expect to get GC? After GC how much time does it take to be a citizen?

[dec2007]

Nishanth,

What is your guess on receiving GC in this year's quota? now the dates moved to jan 09, i guess retrogression might not be as bad we predicted (aug 07). do you agree.

with pd of dec 2007, trying to understand when we can expect gc. few decisions need to be made at personal level.

thanks,

[TeddyKoochu]

I agree - the positive impact of 07/07 for later filers was that there was good visibility and we could do good prediction/calculation. Once 2008 demand is in the Demand Data or 485 Inventory, we should be able to get a better handle on PD movement.

Teddy - you mean 3 years right. A wait time down to 2 years would be awesome.


Thanks Teddy. You mean 3 years for Dec 2008, right?

Guys yes its 3 years, thanks for the correction its a good improvement for the wait time in a positive direction.

[kpt112107]

Costco is good and reasonable.
They will give u picture in 15 mins. If you don;t like quality then they will retake snap at free of cost. Take out glasses if you have just to avoid glare and all....


Sorry to post this here.....does anyone recommend a good place for passport photos for I485? Is costco a good choice?

[gc2008]

Hello Guys,
I have been following this site for so long but never posted. I know its the wrong thread to ask this question but as its has more traffic, I am posting my question here. First of all congratulations to all who became current and good luck who are still waiting. As many of you, my PD also became current in the latest visa bulletin. I recently went through H1B extension and had the title as senior programmer analyst. When we applied for PERM and I 140 3 years back, the title was little different than what was applied for my recent H1B extension. However, the job duties are same. In 485 form, for the current occupation, my attorney said that my current title should be filled (which is senior programmer analyst) and not the title which was mentioned in PERM. Is it OK. As per him, current position can be different from that of GC. Is he correct?

Thanks KD2008 for your response. Any other responses would be appreciated. Please let me know I am nervous

[tometukuri]

I have filed for my I-485 this month and received the notices today. Everything is accurate in my reciept notice but on my wifes application the priority date is listed as Dec 2nd 2011 instead of the real priority date. Also, her preference classification is blank. I see this as a concern but just wanted to check if anyone had similar issues and how they went about getting this rectified. My wife is piggybacking on my application.

Moderators - Please move this to the appropriate thread once folks respond.

[manzoorraza]

Guys,
Am a great fan and have been an ardent follower for a few months now. Would like to thank all who have contributed to this and made life easier for rest of us. Finally decided to join the party with a question I have.
I have a PD of 5/1/09 and have my H1 renewal pending (applied late - recepit date 8/29/11). Looks like there is a decent possibility that my date could get current in the Feb (hopefully) or March Visa Bulletin. Just wanted to know if I need to have the approval on renewal to be able to file 485 just in case the date gets current. Dont want to miss the opportunity to get an AP, if I can, as have not been able to visit saadi dilli (our delhi) for 4 years now..sic. Am contemplating going premium if I have to but dont want to attract the EXTRA attention to the renewal if I don't need to.
I tried looking through some relevant threads but couldn't find an answer. Would appreciate if one of the more knowledgeable ones can help me out here. Using this thread just because of the high visibility and apologies in advance for doing so.
Thanks
Manzoor

[belmontboy]

I have filed for my I-485 this month and received the notices today. Everything is accurate in my reciept notice but on my wifes application the priority date is listed as Dec 2nd 2011 instead of the real priority date. Also, her preference classification is blank. I see this as a concern but just wanted to check if anyone had similar issues and how they went about getting this rectified. My wife is piggybacking on my application.

Moderators - Please move this to the appropriate thread once folks respond.

No need to worry about that.
Saw the same with our case too.

your case link's to your wife's.

[memk26]

Hello Experts...
Sorry for posting unrelated question to this thread.
I have filed my H1 ext in Nov11 which was expire in Nov11 itself , I also filed I485 in Oct11 and still waiting on EAD/AP .currently I am working based on H1b receipts.
Question is once I get EAD and if I withdraw my H1 ext petition and start using EAD immidialtely will I be considered as out of status(not suppossed to work)for the period (Between h1 expired date and EAD start date) since I am withdrawing the case?
Just don't want to deal with RFE and visa stamp and site visit etc..

Want to know your thought ,any reply would be highly appreaciated.
Thank you

[Feb262009]

I like your optimism especially when my pd is feb 26, 2009. :)

Your Receipt number should be fine. Since they check your legal presence and staying with Receipt number during the H1B extension is legal. What I am not sure is, is it upto 180 days or 240 days.


Guys,
Am a great fan and have been an ardent follower for a few months now. Would like to thank all who have contributed to this and made life easier for rest of us. Finally decided to join the party with a question I have.
I have a PD of 5/1/09 and have my H1 renewal pending (applied late - recepit date 8/29/11). Looks like there is a decent possibility that my date could get current in the Feb (hopefully) or March Visa Bulletin. Just wanted to know if I need to have the approval on renewal to be able to file 485 just in case the date gets current. Dont want to miss the opportunity to get an AP, if I can, as have not been able to visit saadi dilli (our delhi) for 4 years now..sic. Am contemplating going premium if I have to but dont want to attract the EXTRA attention to the renewal if I don't need to.
I tried looking through some relevant threads but couldn't find an answer. Would appreciate if one of the more knowledgeable ones can help me out here. Using this thread just because of the high visibility and apologies in advance for doing so.
Thanks
Manzoor

[manzoorraza]

Feb262009,
Thanks for the response and goodluck to you too. I think the period is 240 days and am pretty sure I will get some sort of answer before that elapses.
After what happened Jan visa bulletin, nothing seems to be too radical to expect. I just don't wanna be caught with my pants down if and when it comes down to it. Any immigration related documentation is like a condom.....better to have it and not need it rather than need it and not have it.


I like your optimism especially when my pd is feb 26, 2009. :)

Your Receipt number should be fine. Since they check your legal presence and staying with Receipt number during the H1B extension is legal. What I am not sure is, is it upto 180 days or 240 days.

[nishant2200]

Nishanth,

What is your guess on receiving GC in this year's quota? now the dates moved to jan 09, i guess retrogression might not be as bad we predicted (aug 07). do you agree.

with pd of dec 2007, trying to understand when we can expect gc. few decisions need to be made at personal level.

thanks,

If indeed demand gathered is low due to demand destruction, then 2007 will be cleared in this FY.

Retrogression you are correct in assuming around worst case of August 2007. It will only happen if the demand starts creeping up to a level which QSP cannot pacify. The point to which to retrogress will also be based on QSP available and demand getting ready.

For example, Q2 starts in January. If CO is able to have 7k QSP, and the Nov VB batch, which is from July 15th 2007 to Nov 1st 2007 (3.5 months) starts getting demand ready in this Q2, assuming around 8k demand coming from that intermittently, the 7k should be just enough to satisfy this batch whilst 1k would show up in Demand data at some point, but by that time, the next batch would be getting ripe intermittently and new QSP might be available.. This 1k should not cause panic bells to CO. But suppose, he can only project / allocate 5k QSP in Q2, then he would retrogress to say October 1st 2007, and 3k around would show up in demand data. Just thinking aloud here, not saying these are actual numbers etc. I am not sure how CO does QSP allocations, in Q1 he clearly has done that on a monthly basis. Also if Q1 he has done QSP and not the entire annual allocation of 5.6k he would still have that annual allocation up his sleeve.

[vizcard]

Thanks KD2008 for your response. Any other responses would be appreciated. Please let me know I am nervous

You need to put your current job title. They really don't expect your title to stay the same from when you filed PERM several years back. I know mine has changed and so have the roles as I've got promotions along the way. That won't impact the application as green card is for future employment.

[dec2007]

If indeed demand gathered is low due to demand destruction, then 2007 will be cleared in this FY.

Retrogression you are correct in assuming around worst case of August 2007. It will only happen if the demand starts creeping up to a level which QSP cannot pacify. The point to which to retrogress will also be based on QSP available and demand getting ready.

For example, Q2 starts in January. If CO is able to have 7k QSP, and the Nov VB batch, which is from July 15th 2007 to Nov 1st 2007 (3.5 months) starts getting demand ready in this Q2, assuming around 8k demand coming from that intermittently, the 7k should be just enough to satisfy this batch whilst 1k would show up in Demand data at some point, but by that time, the next batch would be getting ripe intermittently and new QSP might be available.. This 1k should not cause panic bells to CO. But suppose, he can only project / allocate 5k QSP in Q2, then he would retrogress to say October 1st 2007, and 3k around would show up in demand data. Just thinking aloud here, not saying these are actual numbers etc. I am not sure how CO does QSP allocations, in Q1 he clearly has done that on a monthly basis. Also if Q1 he has done QSP and not the entire annual allocation of 5.6k he would still have that annual allocation up his sleeve.

Thanks for a detailed answer.

[PD2008AUG25]

I became current in last bulletin. However, I am currently single and going through matrimonial process. So I want to delay filing my i-485 to avoid any issues later on if I-485 is approved before I get married. I am thinking of a scenario described below, do any of gurus see any issues/downside with it?

What if I keep all documents ready to file before next bulletin (around 10th Jan) and if dates don't retrogress wait until next bulletin, dates retrogress than file immediately? ( I suppose I have until 31 Jan to file even if date retrogress) any issues or troubles anyone can think of? Do any of the prepared documents "expire"?

if dates don't retrogress how long I can defer filing my i-485?

really appreciate any answer and help.

Thanks.

[imdeng]

Its a solid plan. Even if dates retrogress in Feb VB, you have until Jan 31st to file 485. You can file any time up to the time when a retrogressed PD becomes effective - there is no expiration.

What if I keep all documents ready to file before next bulletin (around 10th Jan) and if dates don't retrogress wait until next bulletin, dates retrogress than file immediately? ( I suppose I have until 31 Jan to file even if date retrogress) any issues or troubles anyone can think of? Do any of the prepared documents "expire"?

if dates don't retrogress how long I can defer filing my i-485?

really appreciate any answer and help.

[smuggymba]

I became current in last bulletin. However, I am currently single and going through matrimonial process. So I want to delay filing my i-485 to avoid any issues later on if I-485 is approved before I get married. I am thinking of a scenario described below, do any of gurus see any issues/downside with it?

What if I keep all documents ready to file before next bulletin (around 10th Jan) and if dates don't retrogress wait until next bulletin, dates retrogress than file immediately? ( I suppose I have until 31 Jan to file even if date retrogress) any issues or troubles anyone can think of? Do any of the prepared documents "expire"?

if dates don't retrogress how long I can defer filing my i-485?

really appreciate any answer and help.

Thanks.

Marry in court now and get the marriage certificate and file now while you're current along with your wife assuming you have found a girl.

Ceremonies can be held later. IMO. If you haven't found a girl, you can delay.

[mygctracker]

You will have until Jan-31, if dates retrogress. But even if retrogresses your PD will be current again next FY hopefully.




I became current in last bulletin. However, I am currently single and going through matrimonial process. So I want to delay filing my i-485 to avoid any issues later on if I-485 is approved before I get married. I am thinking of a scenario described below, do any of gurus see any issues/downside with it?

What if I keep all documents ready to file before next bulletin (around 10th Jan) and if dates don't retrogress wait until next bulletin, dates retrogress than file immediately? ( I suppose I have until 31 Jan to file even if date retrogress) any issues or troubles anyone can think of? Do any of the prepared documents "expire"?

if dates don't retrogress how long I can defer filing my i-485?

really appreciate any answer and help.

Thanks.

[PlainSpeak]

Deleted since already answered

[PD2008AUG25]

Marry in court now and get the marriage certificate and file now while you're current along with your wife assuming you have found a girl.

Ceremonies can be held later. IMO. If you haven't found a girl, you can delay.


You will have until Jan-31, if dates retrogress. But even if retrogresses your PD will be current again next FY hopefully.


Its a solid plan. Even if dates retrogress in Feb VB, you have until Jan 31st to file 485. You can file any time up to the time when a retrogressed PD becomes effective - there is no expiration.

Thanks imdeng, mygctracker and smuggymba for answers. I haven't found the girl yet, which is turning out to be very difficult.

I was not hoping to face this weird situation for at least one more year, but sudden movement of PD changed everything.

I will keep defering application for i-485 until it retrogresses or I get married.

If I just get marriage certificate, won't it arouse suspicion related to visa fraud?

[rahul2011]

My wife had the same situation ,I requested my company to file H4 Visa and My attorney rejected saying she will be covered under AOS based on I485 receipt number ( it seems they don’t want to waste money for H4visa).
I raised the same concern whatever you have presented here and I am waiting for the response from my company attorney. I will update you if i hear anything from them.

Any ways lets wait for the Inputs from our Experts.


Hello Experts...
Sorry for posting unrelated question to this thread.
I have filed my H1 ext in Nov11 which was expire in Nov11 itself , I also filed I485 in Oct11 and still waiting on EAD/AP .currently I am working based on H1b receipts.
Question is once I get EAD and if I withdraw my H1 ext petition and start using EAD immidialtely will I be considered as out of status(not suppossed to work)for the period (Between h1 expired date and EAD start date) since I am withdrawing the case?
Just don't want to deal with RFE and visa stamp and site visit etc..

Want to know your thought ,any reply would be highly appreaciated.
Thank you

[doctorp]

Hi Guys,
I was wondering if somebody can answer my previous question about my wife having a different A number compared to her previous A number on OPT EAD card... please... i appreciate the help (please feel free to remove the post from this thread)
But on a 2nd note, all our receipts are in order LIN *******219 to 224, can we figure out how many 485 were filed based on that?
just an idea!!!!

[smuggymba]

If I just get marriage certificate, won't it arouse suspicion related to visa fraud?

If you marry a real girl in a real court and really bring her in the US as your wife - that's not fraud.

Coming up with a fake marriage certificate when a wife does not exist is fraud.

[zenmaster]

Hi Guys,
I was wondering if somebody can answer my previous question about my wife having a different A number compared to her previous A number on OPT EAD card... please... i appreciate the help (please feel free to remove the post from this thread)
But on a 2nd note, all our receipts are in order LIN *******219 to 224, can we figure out how many 485 were filed based on that?
just an idea!!!!

The A number on your OPT card is really your work card number. It is not the same as the A number assigned at 140/485 stage.
I know it sounds confusing, but that is how it is.
The A number you get on your EAD (based on 485 filing) will be different than the A number on the EAD recd during OPT.

[doctorp]

The A number on your OPT card is really your work card number. It is not the same as the A number assigned at 140/485 stage.
I know it sounds confusing, but that is how it is.
The A number you get on your EAD (based on 485 filing) will be different than the A number on the EAD recd during OPT.

thanks a ton... i was very confused

[sandeep11]

GC is for future employment. So what has been mentioned in PERM doesn't matter. Please mention the current job title.


Thanks KD2008 for your response. Any other responses would be appreciated. Please let me know I am nervous

[Feb262009]

Gurus,
When Dec Bulletin came out, lot of noise around. But this Jan Bulletin, I feel comparatively lesser noise. Does this indicate the people with 2008 PD are not too much?

I know lot of people bought the EB3 labor around july 2007 to get in. May be lot of 2008 Perms were to port that PD to EB2.

[vizcard]

Gurus,
When Dec Bulletin came out, lot of noise around. But this Jan Bulletin, I feel comparatively lesser noise. Does this indicate the people with 2008 PD are not too much?

I know lot of people bought the EB3 labor around july 2007 to get in. May be lot of 2008 Perms were to port that PD to EB2.

It just means people are busy getting their stuff together. If anything less noise means more people are busy.

[imdeng]

Two reasons - first - a lot of very active people on the board have already become current - so their focus has shifted from analysis/calculation/anticipation to prepare-for-485 and post-485 stuff. Second, people with 2009/2010 PD, who should ideally be the main audience of this thread, have just not become pained and frustrated enough with the GC process to create much noise (compared to 2007 and 2008 PD people, who despite the EAD/AP bonanza for pre-07/07 people, suffered one of the longest waits for EB2IC).


It just means people are busy getting their stuff together. If anything less noise means more people are busy.

[TeddyKoochu]

Trackitt trend based on PD for EB2 I+C

PERM tracker: EB2 I+C
CY 2008 2185 + 112
CY 2009 707 + 63
CY 2010 616 + 27
CY 2011 1184 + 30 so far

I-140 tracker: EB2 I+C
CY 2008 687 + 62
CY 2009 440 + 23
CY 2010 431 + 19
CY 2011 329 + 15 so far ..but again many PERMs are not yet approved

The above trend shows very poor "conversion" of PERMS into I-140s in 2008 but better in 2009 and very good in 2010.

Spec, Teddy, Veni what do you think of this?

I have considered total # of applications based on PD - included approved, pending, denied.

May be there is a reason why people don't add their case to I-140 tracker. I don't know. Qualitatively speaking I am inclined to believe this trend.

Please discuss.

KD this is really good research. Since everything is by PD ideally the trend does indicate significant demand destruction if we read it quite literally for 2008. However what happened in 2008 was quite unusual after mid 2008 every perm went for an audit, so potentially these people may have lost interest in tracking itself for 140. What is important is how many people simply had to leave because they were in their 6th year so could not extend H1 or some who just switched employers so the perms became redundant. Porting was not a phenomenon in this time. Normally I have used Trackitt just for I485 over corresponding periods it works well for EB2 ROW here we are trying to relate 2 different entities perm & I140 ideally we would expect the audience level to be similar as it is for 2009 and 2010. One thing to note is that the 2008 perm figures are now low by any means but resulted in significantly lower I140, this lends good credibility to the research. On another note Trackitt ratios keep changing. However I must agree that this is the first research that indicates demand destruction for 2008.
Now let’s try to use your research in 2009 and 2010 trend is closer to the 60% line whereas the 2008 figure points to closer to 33%. This might imply 27% extra demand destruction, so we should move closer to the transformation ratio of .73 instead of 1. If the transformation ratio is 0.7 then this means 2200 *.73 ~= 1600 + 250PM porting = 1850. Thus far we have had 16.5 months of intake so this makes the gross intake 30525, this makes the Nett SOFAD required to cross 01-JAN-2009 as 30525 + (8.5 -9)K – SOFAD Consumed ~ 40K. So we are kind of closer to the 40K mark. This would mean that there is probably a 10K buffer but CO and the agencies can quite literally see it only once they monitor the Jan filings, else they can still have their foot on the gas pedal and the intake can go on further. Intake is completely in the discretionary domain, IMHO when the Jan bulletin was released only Nov filings could at best be tabulated and this zone does not come at all closer to the time when perm issues started in 2008 (Time of significant demand destruction), so looks like they expected higher filings even in later 2007 PD zone that they actually got. Hopefully the inventory will clear everything out.

[Feb262009]

But I don't see a huge increase in the 485 thread too. Not just it. When the Jan Bulletin is twice the size (9.5 months) of Dec Bulletin, The people crying out in joy should be twice too. But I don't see many shouting out here, neither in other forums.

Two reasons - first - a lot of very active people on the board have already become current - so their focus has shifted from analysis/calculation/anticipation to prepare-for-485 and post-485 stuff. ...

[imdeng]

Yay for empirical evidence. I am enthused by the extent of the movement in the last VB (almost feels like panic on DoS' part) and the language that did not close the door in future movement. Qualitative evidence does point towards future movement - and now we are getting quantitative data to support the qualitative assessment as well.

One thing to note is that the 2008 perm figures are now low by any means but resulted in significantly lower I140, this lends good credibility to the research. On another note Trackitt ratios keep changing. However I must agree that this is the first research that indicates demand destruction for 2008.

[veni001]

Veni - I am not sure I understood your conclusion. I understand the data you presented and I agree with the statement below - but I am not sure what you are suggesting regarding possibility of a significant demand destruction in 2008.


Veni - I have same question.

My point was most of the FY2008 and FY2009 PERM filings are certified by FY2010. From the statistics we know that EB2IC received at least 25k VISA per year for last couple of years (total 50K).

Ron is saying ~70% of FY2008&FY2009 PERMs are indeed EB3-->EB2 conversions, if that is true then EB3I and EB3ROW inventories should have decreased significantly instead we saw the decrease in EB2IC inventory.

Bottom line is, data does not support Ron's conversion (upgrade) theory. Hope i am clear this time!

[suninphx]

KD this is really good research. Since everything is by PD ideally the trend does indicate significant demand destruction if we read it quite literally for 2008. However what happened in 2008 was quite unusual after mid 2008 every perm went for an audit, so potentially these people may have lost interest in tracking itself for 140. What is important is how many people simply had to leave because they were in their 6th year so could not extend H1 or some who just switched employers so the perms became redundant. Porting was not a phenomenon in this time. Normally I have used Trackitt just for I485 over corresponding periods it works well for EB2 ROW here we are trying to relate 2 different entities perm & I140 ideally we would expect the audience level to be similar as it is for 2009 and 2010. One thing to note is that the 2008 perm figures are now low by any means but resulted in significantly lower I140, this lends good credibility to the research. On another note Trackitt ratios keep changing. However I must agree that this is the first research that indicates demand destruction for 2008.
Now let’s try to use your research in 2009 and 2010 trend is closer to the 60% line whereas the 2008 figure points to closer to 33%. This might imply 27% extra demand destruction, so we should move closer to the transformation ratio of .73 instead of 1. If the transformation ratio is 0.7 then this means 2200 *.73 ~= 1600 + 250PM porting = 1850. Thus far we have had 16.5 months of intake so this makes the gross intake 30525, this makes the Nett SOFAD required to cross 01-JAN-2009 as 30525 + (8.5 -9)K – SOFAD Consumed ~ 40K. So we are kind of closer to the 40K mark. This would mean that there is probably a 10K buffer but CO and the agencies can quite literally see it only once they monitor the Jan filings, else they can still have their foot on the gas pedal and the intake can go on further. Intake is completely in the discretionary domain, IMHO when the Jan bulletin was released only Nov filings could at best be tabulated and this zone does not come at all closer to the time when perm issues started in 2008 (Time of significant demand destruction), so looks like they expected higher filings even in later 2007 PD zone that they actually got. Hopefully the inventory will clear everything out.

IMO- actually they did NOT get the number of filings they were looking for hence this drastic movement. And remember most of PWMBs would be in too. So probably both numbers were short of their expectation. ( If reasoning in the VB is to be believed :) )

[RRRRRR]

But I don't see a huge increase in the 485 thread too. Not just it. When the Jan Bulletin is twice the size (9.5 months) of Dec Bulletin, The people crying out in joy should be twice too. But I don't see many shouting out here, neither in other forums.

You are right but i believe most of the 2008 PD's are not active members or they never visited the forum as this move was not expected.

As someone said those people might be busy in getting the documents ready, i am sure we will see more noise in the post 485 thread once things settle down.

[codesmith]

You are right but i believe most of the 2008 PD's are not active members or they never visited the forum as this move was not expected.

As someone said those people might be busy in getting the documents ready, i am sure we will see more noise in the post 485 thread once things settle down.

I don't think that there are fewer members from 2008 - PD.
No one thought of such a big date movement and after such big movement we should have seen more joy and cry. But we didn't - I tend to agree with Gurus that there's demand destruction.
When I called to my attorney he said, " the number of calls received after the bulletin were not as expected ..." I think there were at least 25-30 perms filed during 08 from my company but the number of calls received by attorney were very few and this might be the indicator of so called demand destruction.

I don't understand one thing that how come guys from 2007, early 08 managed to save their jobs and reach to 485 and there's no d-destruction ? Come mid 08 and onward we see d-destruction ....
It's quiet baffling:confused:

[imdeng]

Well - demand destruction should be highest among PWMB since they have waited the longest without EAD/AP - not to mention the disappointment of missing the big boat by mere days in many cases.

IMO- actually they did NOT get the number of filings they were looking for hence this drastic movement. And remember most of PWMBs would be in too. So probably both numbers were short of their expectation. ( If reasoning in the VB is to be believed :) )

[imdeng]

We don't know whether there was or was not any demand destruction in 2007 and early 2008 PDs. For all we know, there was significant demand destruction there. Since last FY only reached 15-Apr-07, we just about finished with EAD/AP people - where we would expect low DD, if any. This FY is when we are getting new inventory including good part of PWMBs - this is where we would expect DD - but we won't know the extent until we get more data in the form of Demand Data or I-485 inventory.
I would imagine that up to now DD was getting balanced by porting. Now perhaps we are reaching a situation where most of the potential porting cases are already through and there is nothing to balance the high level of DD.


I don't understand one thing that how come guys from 2007, early 08 managed to save their jobs and reach to 485 and there's no d-destruction ? Come mid 08 and onward we see d-destruction ....
It's quiet baffling:confused:

[polapragada]

My Situation:

I am here on H1-B and recently filed AOS I-485 along with my wife (I am primary). My wife is on L1-B and planning quit the job end of this week, so her employer will revoke L1B immediately. We haven’t got the FP notice (or EAD/AP yet. Just got receipt number).

My question:
1. Do I need to apply for H-4 for my wife or is she already considered as AOS status?

Note: She is not planning to work any more

[RRRRRR]

My Situation:

I am here on H1-B and recently filed AOS I-485 along with my wife (I am primary). My wife is on L1-B and planning quit the job end of this week, so her employer will revoke L1B immediately. We haven’t got the FP notice (or EAD/AP yet. Just got receipt number).

My question:
1. Do I need to apply for H-4 for my wife or is she already considered as AOS status?

Note: She is not planning to work any more

You will have to apply for H4 as she is on a different visa class. In any case check with your lawyer and make sure you apply for H4 before she quits so that there is no Gap

[familyguy]

H4 is not required. 485 receipts are enough. She can start work once she gets EAD.

Check with your lawyer too...



My Situation:

I am here on H1-B and recently filed AOS I-485 along with my wife (I am primary). My wife is on L1-B and planning quit the job end of this week, so her employer will revoke L1B immediately. We haven’t got the FP notice (or EAD/AP yet. Just got receipt number).

My question:
1. Do I need to apply for H-4 for my wife or is she already considered as AOS status?

Note: She is not planning to work any more

[RRRRRR]

H4 is not required. 485 receipts are enough. She can start work once she gets EAD.

Check with your lawyer too...

I guess what familyguy is saying makes sense, since you have already applied for I485 so i guess you are good, Please ignore my previous post and do check with your lawyer though..

[username]

Guys,

I have two I140 with different priority date and category. My lawyer have asked for "REQUEST FOR CONVERSION OF EB-3 PRIORITY DATE TO EB-2 PETITION". I am guessing that my case is under review with VO before they cash out my check and issue me receipt.

Do you think VO will convert/port/interfile/etc.. and will issue me a 485 receipt?


MD: Nov/30
RD: Dec/1
Center: TSC
Chq. Cashed: Not yet

[PD2008AUG25]

If you marry a real girl in a real court and really bring her in the US as your wife - that's not fraud.

Coming up with a fake marriage certificate when a wife does not exist is fraud.

More likely scenario in my case is, If girl is on H1B and working in a different city. If we do court marriage and get certificate, we still won't be able to prove that we're living at same residence. I am asking because I know in some cases, USCIS requires proof of living together, marriage albums, bills of utilities, joint bank account etc to prove genuine marriage. I won't have many of these, Do you think it could be an issue? Thanks for your answer and help.

[jackbrown_890]

More likely scenario in my case is, If girl is on H1B and working in a different city. If we do court marriage and get certificate, we still won't be able to prove that we're living at same residence. I am asking because I know in some cases, USCIS requires proof of living together, marriage albums, bills of utilities, joint bank account etc to prove genuine marriage. I won't have many of these, Do you think it could be an issue? Thanks for your answer and help.

In my OPINION it should not be an issue as long as you are getting married BEFORE i485 APPROVAL - before it is approved you are still H1b

now I see why you are in bad situation if you are about to file your 485,, if your spouse is out of country she won't be able to come back on H4 if your 485 is already approved before wedding but it has nothing to do with you sending an application because i think your application will be approved based on your PD,,but you may be able to buy few weeks by delaying sending an application few weeks late. If you PD was 08/07, delay in sending application would delay your I 485 approval a little.. but your PD is 08/08 so in my OPINION you are not getting greencard anytime in next month or two,,,so if you are planning to get married soon before 485 APPROVAL, you r good ,,if you wait till your 485 is approved,, you r looking at probably filing F2a for your spouse if she is in India..(talk to your lawyer)

and if girl is here in US on H1b living in different city, i don't see too many problems with Court marriage

good luck

[smuggymba]

More likely scenario in my case is, If girl is on H1B and working in a different city. If we do court marriage and get certificate, we still won't be able to prove that we're living at same residence. I am asking because I know in some cases, USCIS requires proof of living together, marriage albums, bills of utilities, joint bank account etc to prove genuine marriage. I won't have many of these, Do you think it could be an issue? Thanks for your answer and help.

As I said earlier - If it's a genuine marriage, you will no issues in proving it genuine.

Have a court marriage, take pics, throw a reception, be on the lease together...if it's genuine, you will no issues in proving it genuine.

you will have issues if it's a fake wedding..which of course is not what I'm saying.

[jackbrown_890]

As I said earlier - If it's a genuine marriage, you will no issues in proving it genuine.

Have a court marriage, take pics, throw a reception, be on the lease together...if it's genuine, you will no issues in proving it genuine.

you will have issues if it's a fake wedding..which of course is not what I'm saying.

I agree with you, proof of living together, marriage albums, bills of utilities, joint bank account MAY become an issue if you are marrying a US Citizen and Applying a greencard thru marriage and so they make you prove your marriage is not fake

[neospeed]

This is common issue with most of the families.I think she will be considered as AOS status once L1 is revoked. Anyway check with lawyer. Also note there is 180 day grace period. So try to use either AP or EAD once you get it to be in safe side.


My Situation:

I am here on H1-B and recently filed AOS I-485 along with my wife (I am primary). My wife is on L1-B and planning quit the job end of this week, so her employer will revoke L1B immediately. We haven’t got the FP notice (or EAD/AP yet. Just got receipt number).

My question:
1. Do I need to apply for H-4 for my wife or is she already considered as AOS status?

Note: She is not planning to work any more

[suninphx]

Trackitt trend based on PD for EB2 I+C

PERM tracker: EB2 I+C
CY 2008 2185 + 112
CY 2009 707 + 63
CY 2010 616 + 27
CY 2011 1184 + 30 so far

I-140 tracker: EB2 I+C
CY 2008 687 + 62
CY 2009 440 + 23
CY 2010 431 + 19
CY 2011 329 + 15 so far ..but again many PERMs are not yet approved

The above trend shows very poor "conversion" of PERMS into I-140s in 2008 but better in 2009 and very good in 2010.

Spec, Teddy, Veni what do you think of this?

I have considered total # of applications based on PD - included approved, pending, denied.

May be there is a reason why people don't add their case to I-140 tracker. I don't know. Qualitatively speaking I am inclined to believe this trend.

Please discuss.

KD-
I am getting only 930 PERM cases for EB2I PD2008 on trackitt? Not sure if we are applying same filter.
Can you please check again?

[dec2007]

Teddy/Others
can you please help understand how adjudication works.

PD: Dec 2007
I140 approved by company A which was acquired by Company B.
Filing 485 next week along with an amended I140 (due to acquisition).

My questions are;
1. What is the sequence of approval that take place. We will get EAD, then i 140 gets approved and 485 and get GC?
2. Will the I140 amendment process delay my GC. Premium processing of 140 is not allowed in my case.

Thanks,

[BBear123]

Sorry I am newb and I am curious about demand destruction. In classical economic terms this refers to a permanent shift downwards. Any reason to think the perceived reduction in demand we see right now as permanent? There is the trend that there were reduced PERM approvals/filings during 2009 and there is the 2007 USCIS screwup that led to a lot of 485 filings but both of these seems transitory.

The last factor is change in demand due to reduced hiring during the past 3 years. This is not going to show up 2011-2012 as thats about when employers file for a green card for people they hire.

Curious to hear thoughts.

[codesmith]

KD-
I am getting only 930 PERM cases for EB2I PD2008 on trackitt? Not sure if we are applying same filter.
Can you please check again?
Filter : India, Eb2, all,all,period,nochange,nochange,jan2007-Dec2011

July 07 Dec 08 1055
Jan 09 Dec 09 613
Jan 10 Dec 10 560

What do you think above % of total filers ?

[imdeng]

We have an active discussion going in on this issue in the Bills/Advocacy thread. You are welcome to share your thoughts there.

Just wanted to update Q members.
I'll remove this post at the end of day.

From : http://immigration-law.com/
12/14/2011: Three Most Powerful Democrats Introduced in Senate Compromised Employment-Based/Family-Based Immigration Bill

Sen Chuck Schumer of New York, co-sponsored Sen. Dick Durbin of Illinois and Sen. Leahy of Vermont, introduced yesterday S.1983 to eliminate the per-country numerical limitation for employment-based immigrants, to increase the per-country numerical limitation for family-sponsored immigrants, and for other reform. Obviously other reform includes relief of Irish which we discussed during last few days. It thus appears that this bill could be a bill to compromise H.R. 3012 and Irish relief. Read on. It thus appears that rather than introducing Irish relief bill, he added Irish E-3 visa and illegal Irish relief provision to H.R. 3012 which the House passes. Full text has yet to be made available. Stay tuned.

[kd2008]

KD-
I am getting only 930 PERM cases for EB2I PD2008 on trackitt? Not sure if we are applying same filter.
Can you please check again?

Yes, today I am getting 930 too! hmmm....I don't know what happened. my apologies!

PS: Caught my mistake. I had selected all countries, all categories for 2008. my bad. Very sorry once again.

[imdeng]

No reason to think that the demand destruction is permanent. Major reason of the DD was the great recession - which is a transient thing (hopefully). The other reason is that with the growth and opportunities in the home countries, potential immigrants from China/India/South Korea are going back - this seems like a more durable thing.
EB GC demand essentially follows the H1B demand. If H1B picks up then we should see a lagged effect in EB demand as well.

Sorry I am newb and I am curious about demand destruction. In classical economic terms this refers to a permanent shift downwards. Any reason to think the perceived reduction in demand we see right now as permanent? There is the trend that there were reduced PERM approvals/filings during 2009 and there is the 2007 USCIS screwup that led to a lot of 485 filings but both of these seems transitory.

The last factor is change in demand due to reduced hiring during the past 3 years. This is not going to show up 2011-2012 as thats about when employers file for a green card for people they hire.

Curious to hear thoughts.

[vizcard]

Sorry I am newb and I am curious about demand destruction. In classical economic terms this refers to a permanent shift downwards. Any reason to think the perceived reduction in demand we see right now as permanent? There is the trend that there were reduced PERM approvals/filings during 2009 and there is the 2007 USCIS screwup that led to a lot of 485 filings but both of these seems transitory.

The last factor is change in demand due to reduced hiring during the past 3 years. This is not going to show up 2011-2012 as thats about when employers file for a green card for people they hire.

Curious to hear thoughts.

the word "demand" means something different in this context than in macro-economics. Here it means approved 140s that are pending for 485s. So the thought here is that a lot of that "demand" is destroyed for various reasons (layoffs, opportunities in home country or other countries, single-income households, etc.)

[la_2002_ch]

All, I am in a tricky situation. Sorry for posting it in this thread, but I need your advise. My employer has been one of those bloodsucking ones. I got current in Jan bulletin and sent a mail to HR asking for the filing of 485, etc. So far HR/employer (mine is not a consulting company, but a moderately large organization in India with 2-3 clients here in US), was thinking that my dates wont be current for atleast another year or so. This came as a shock to them and now they are trying to delay the filing process (hoping the dates would retrogress again in Feb bulletin). HR says that it will need approval from 2-3 people who are out for next couple of weeks, so they will start the internal approval process by first week of Jan and then send all details to the company attorney by end of Jan. Hence, they cant file for my AOS before Feb/Mar.

Is there a way out for me or am I screwed? Can I hire my own attorney to file AOS? If yes, would I need anything from my employer (I do have a scanned copy of the labor and I-140 approval). WHat will happen if my employer finds out I went behind theior backs to file the AOS?

Any help/advise is greatly welcome. I was so happy on Friday and now deeply depressed.

[BBear123]

No reason to think that the demand destruction is permanent. Major reason of the DD was the great recession - which is a transient thing (hopefully). The other reason is that with the growth and opportunities in the home countries, potential immigrants from China/India/South Korea are going back - this seems like a more durable thing.
EB GC demand essentially follows the H1B demand. If H1B picks up then we should see a lagged effect in EB demand as well.

Ok that makes sense, thanks.


the word "demand" means something different in this context than in macro-economics. Here it means approved 140s that are pending for 485s. So the thought here is that a lot of that "demand" is destroyed for various reasons (layoffs, opportunities in home country or other countries, single-income households, etc.)

Alright that again makes sense. Thanks.

[GhostWriter]

I think you need to distinguish between two "Demands" here

1. Reduction in demand for immigrant workers - This is the economic demand you are referring to and would depend on the part of economic cycle US is in. This would be reflected in the number of H1s and PERMs filed. For fiscal years 2008 and 2009 (filing years 2007 and 2008) the H1 cap was reached within a week where as in 2010 it took 9 months. This is also reflected in lower PERM filings for 2009 vs 2008 or 2007.

2. The demand destruction being discussed here is related but different. Here people are discussing that after filing PERM, what percentage of people dropped out of the GC process. This can be due to losing the job (due to bad economy), multiple PERMs (so you dont need to follow up one PERM if another through your spouse is current), increase in I-140 denial rate. As Teddy and others have pointed out there is already a 38% demand destruction built into assumptions, but given the fast movement some people (so far not me) think that the number could be higher than that.


Sorry I am newb and I am curious about demand destruction. In classical economic terms this refers to a permanent shift downwards. Any reason to think the perceived reduction in demand we see right now as permanent? There is the trend that there were reduced PERM approvals/filings during 2009 and there is the 2007 USCIS screwup that led to a lot of 485 filings but both of these seems transitory.

The last factor is change in demand due to reduced hiring during the past 3 years. This is not going to show up 2011-2012 as thats about when employers file for a green card for people they hire.

Curious to hear thoughts.

[suninphx]

Yes, today I am getting 930 too! hmmm....I don't know what happened. my apologies!

PS: Caught my mistake. I had selected all countries, all categories for 2008. my bad. Very sorry once again.

Thats fine KD we at least have some baseline data now for DD theory :). Also noticed that % PERMS denied for for EB2I PD2008 are much higher compared to PD2009. I have not looked for PD2010 yet.

[10102007]

All, I am in a tricky situation. Sorry for posting it in this thread, but I need your advise. My employer has been one of those bloodsucking ones. I got current in Jan bulletin and sent a mail to HR asking for the filing of 485, etc. So far HR/employer (mine is not a consulting company, but a moderately large organization in India with 2-3 clients here in US), was thinking that my dates wont be current for atleast another year or so. This came as a shock to them and now they are trying to delay the filing process (hoping the dates would retrogress again in Feb bulletin). HR says that it will need approval from 2-3 people who are out for next couple of weeks, so they will start the internal approval process by first week of Jan and then send all details to the company attorney by end of Jan. Hence, they cant file for my AOS before Feb/Mar.

Is there a way out for me or am I screwed? Can I hire my own attorney to file AOS? If yes, would I need anything from my employer (I do have a scanned copy of the labor and I-140 approval). WHat will happen if my employer finds out I went behind theior backs to file the AOS?

Any help/advise is greatly welcome. I was so happy on Friday and now deeply depressed.

You and only YOU can file your AOS application. A lawyer can file it on your behalf, but it is your application. All you need from the employer is an Employment verification letter. Talk to a good lawyer. He/she can help you to file AOS.

[la_2002_ch]

You and only YOU can file your AOS application. A lawyer can file it on your behalf, but it is your application. All you need from the employer is an Employment verification letter. Talk to a good lawyer. He/she can help you to file AOS.

Thx. Can the employer do anything if they find out I went behing their back to file the application? Not sure how will I get the EVD from them.

have started searching for immigration attorneys in my area. Hope something good comes out of this.... dont know what do people in "positions" get by screwing other people's lives and happines.. :(

[TeddyKoochu]

Yes, today I am getting 930 too! hmmm....I don't know what happened. my apologies!

PS: Caught my mistake. I had selected all countries, all categories for 2008. my bad. Very sorry once again.

KD no worries man you made a great attempt. Sun thanks for catching the issue. Guys with this we are back to square 1. The Perm - I140 data does not show any evidence of special demand destruction in 2008.On another note HR3012 and its counterpart bills in the Senate are going strong. We still do not have sufficient intake to cater to HR3012 atleast a buffer. The 9 month move that happened for the Jan bulletin is probably powered by the sentiment around HR 3012 atleast in part.

[10102007]

Thx. Can the employer do anything if they find out I went behing their back to file the application? Not sure how will I get the EVD from them.

have started searching for immigration attorneys in my area. Hope something good comes out of this.... dont know what do people in "positions" get by screwing other people's lives and happines.. :(

I understand your anxiety. Don't worry. As always, all will end well. Don't just look for lawyers in your area. Look for good lawyers. You can talk to them by phone and send/receive documents by mail.

I'm not sure what the employer can or cannot do. But a lawyer should be able to bring your anxiety down. Talk to a good one. I've heard cases where people have used other documents in place of emp verification letter. But am personally not aware of the process. Not to repeat it over and over again - Talk to a good attorney.

[codesmith]

Thx. Can the employer do anything if they find out I went behing their back to file the application? Not sure how will I get the EVD from them.

have started searching for immigration attorneys in my area. Hope something good comes out of this.... dont know what do people in "positions" get by screwing other people's lives and happines.. :(

Even if you file 485 yourself you need to get employment verification letter and my word of caution would be don't fight with your company .. try to resolve it amicably, make sure you keep your job and stay in US for next year.

[BBear123]

I think you need to distinguish between two "Demands" here

1. Reduction in demand for immigrant workers - This is the economic demand you are referring to and would depend on the part of economic cycle US is in. This would be reflected in the number of H1s and PERMs filed. For fiscal years 2008 and 2009 (filing years 2007 and 2008) the H1 cap was reached within a week where as in 2010 it took 9 months. This is also reflected in lower PERM filings for 2009 vs 2008 or 2007.

2. The demand destruction being discussed here is related but different. Here people are discussing that after filing PERM, what percentage of people dropped out of the GC process. This can be due to losing the job (due to bad economy), multiple PERMs (so you dont need to follow up one PERM if another through your spouse is current), increase in I-140 denial rate. As Teddy and others have pointed out there is already a 38% demand destruction built into assumptions, but given the fast movement some people (so far not me) think that the number could be higher than that.

38% seems pretty high but I suppose some approximations are necessary. Anecdotally (a.k.a straight up not how-ever-so statistically) I have not seen too many people who filed multiple perms and more cases where dependents were added to the application. Do you have a source for I-140 approval/denial stats? It looks like any data I can come across on the USCIS webpage is for E1X.

[suninphx]

38% seems pretty high but I suppose some approximations are necessary. Anecdotally (a.k.a straight up not how-ever-so statistically) I have not seen too many people who filed multiple perms and more cases where dependents were added to the application. Do you have a source for I-140 approval/denial stats? It looks like any data I can come across on the USCIS webpage is for E1X.

Based on 'actual data' there is consensus at PERM-> I485 convertion ratio of 1 for EB2. In another words if there are approx. 28000 EB2/3IC PERM applications then those will result into approx. 28000 I485 EB2IC applications. Now this conversion factor includes factor of 38%. (IMO we should not really call this as demand destruction)
Due to extraordinary situation in 2008 some people on this forum ( like me ) believe that there may be some more DD on top of above. i.e PERM -> I485 conversion factor is less than 1 for PD2008.(We dont have concrete data to back this theory up yet so we are looking for some pointers to indirectly deduce some numbers)

[GhostWriter]

See Teddy's post on first page, that explains the assumptions.
One thing to note is that 38% is not just the I140 denial rate. It is a single factor incorporating a person who has an approved EB2-IC PERM but does not eventually use a visa number. Easy way to understand is start with Spec's PERM-IC numbers for a particular financial year.
- The first assumption is EB2-IC to total PERM-IC ratio assumed to be 75%.
- Second assumption is a person not using a visa number even with an approved PERM. Lets say x%. This will include I-140 denial rate (Veni once had a figure of 20% or so), I-485 denial rate (negligible), multiple PERMs (unknown), job-loss (unknown).
- Third assumption is dependent ratio - 2.125 (slightly higher than 2 basically, everyone married-why suffer alone, some with kids)
The product of these three if assumed to be 1 gives a simple way to start with PERM-IC numbers and figure out I-485 demand.
.75*x*2.125 = 1 gives x = 63% implying a 37% number for people not using a visa number even with an approved PERM. So if you take 20% as I-140 denial rate then the rest 17% becomes reduction in demand due to multiple PERMs/job loss etc.

Teddy, do you think clarifying in your post that the second assumption of 38% is a combination of 3-4 factors would help ?



38% seems pretty high but I suppose some approximations are necessary. Anecdotally (a.k.a straight up not how-ever-so statistically) I have not seen too many people who filed multiple perms and more cases where dependents were added to the application. Do you have a source for I-140 approval/denial stats? It looks like any data I can come across on the USCIS webpage is for E1X.

[suninphx]

See Teddy's post on first page, that explains the assumptions.
One thing to note is that 38% is not just the I140 denial rate. It is a single factor incorporating a person who has an approved EB2-IC PERM but does not eventually use a visa number. Easy way to understand is start with Spec's PERM-IC numbers for a particular financial year.
- The first assumption is EB2-IC to total PERM-IC ratio assumed to be 75%.
- Second assumption is a person not using a visa number even with an approved PERM. Lets say x%. This will include I-140 denial rate (Veni once had a figure of 20% or so), I-485 denial rate (negligible), multiple PERMs (unknown), job-loss (unknown).
- Third assumption is dependent ratio - 2.125 (slightly higher than 2 basically, everyone married-why suffer alone, some with kids)
The product of these three if assumed to be 1 gives a simple way to start with PERM-IC numbers and figure out I-485 demand.
.75*x*2.125 = 1 gives x = 63% implying a 37% number for people not using a visa number even with an approved PERM. So if you take 20% as I-140 denial rate then the rest 17% becomes reduction in demand due to multiple PERMs/job loss etc.

Teddy, do you think clarifying in your post that the second assumption of 38% is a combination of 3-4 factors would help ?

Quoting 38% out of context can indeed be misleading. And let me say it again- Its not really demand destruction IMO. Its more of percentage figure arrived when we assumed PERM(EB2/3IC) -> I485(EB2IC) convertion ratio to be 1.

[TeddyKoochu]

See Teddy's post on first page, that explains the assumptions.
One thing to note is that 38% is not just the I140 denial rate. It is a single factor incorporating a person who has an approved EB2-IC PERM but does not eventually use a visa number. Easy way to understand is start with Spec's PERM-IC numbers for a particular financial year.
- The first assumption is EB2-IC to total PERM-IC ratio assumed to be 75%.
- Second assumption is a person not using a visa number even with an approved PERM. Lets say x%. This will include I-140 denial rate (Veni once had a figure of 20% or so), I-485 denial rate (negligible), multiple PERMs (unknown), job-loss (unknown).
- Third assumption is dependent ratio - 2.125 (slightly higher than 2 basically, everyone married-why suffer alone, some with kids)
The product of these three if assumed to be 1 gives a simple way to start with PERM-IC numbers and figure out I-485 demand.
.75*x*2.125 = 1 gives x = 63% implying a 37% number for people not using a visa number even with an approved PERM. So if you take 20% as I-140 denial rate then the rest 17% becomes reduction in demand due to multiple PERMs/job loss etc.

Teddy, do you think clarifying in your post that the second assumption of 38% is a combination of 3-4 factors would help ?


Quoting 38% out of context can indeed be misleading. And let me say it again- Its not really demand destruction IMO. Its more of percentage figure arrived when we assumed PERM(EB2/3IC) -> I485(EB2IC) convertion ratio to be 1.

@ghostwriter - Thanks for going deep & dissecting it. You have actually classified the destruction into its 2 broad reasons a) Denial b) Abandonment for any reason. The factor of 2.125 was agreed after debating here on the forum. Actually the idea was purely to have a transformation factor from Perm to 485. Veni & Spec had worked quite extensively on the perm to 485 transformations and found a good correlation at 1, something like Karl Pearson's coefficient of correlation.
There could be several other factors like someone upgrading to EB1 or getting GC by FB or multiple perms but these are all hard to quantify so my idea was to have 1 factor kind of represent everything.
So it’s really a matter of terminology I would say Destruction means loss by all means i.e. either a) Denial b) Abandonment for any reason. Sun's idea of demand destruction is b) specifically as in 2008 the market situation was terrible compounded by perm issues (Later Half). Now another point to note is that we have CP as well which is not included in this transformation.
@Sun if this is agreeable
Transformation Factor - Ratio of expected 485 to perms.
Demand Destruction - Total loss in demand due to any reason from perm to I485.
Abandonment - Job Loss, leaving for any reason etc, something that was prevalent in 2008.
There is high likelihood that the transformation factor may be less post Jul 2007 because people did not have the cushion of EAD / AP. The factor of 1 comes from the first 6 months of 2007 as tonyromo had calculated. Sun I think the 2 of us have always understood your point has always been about “Abandonment”, somewhere the jargon has become confusing. If you have better terminology please propose.

[suninphx]

@ghostwriter - Thanks for going deep & dissecting it. You have actually classified the destruction into its 2 broad reasons a) Denial b) Abandonment for any reason. The factor of 2.125 was agreed after debating here on the forum. Actually the idea was purely to have a transformation factor from Perm to 485. Veni & Spec had worked quite extensively on the perm to 485 transformations and found a good correlation at 1, something like Karl Pearson's coefficient of correlation.
There could be several other factors like someone upgrading to EB1 or getting GC by FB or multiple perms but these are all hard to quantify so my idea was to have 1 factor kind of represent everything.
So it’s really a matter of terminology I would say Destruction means loss by all means i.e. either a) Denial b) Abandonment for any reason. Sun's idea of demand destruction is b) specifically as in 2008 the market situation was terrible compounded by perm issues (Later Half). Now another point to note is that we have CP as well which is not included in this transformation.
@Sun if this is agreeable
Transformation Factor - Ratio of expected 485 to perms.
Demand Destruction - Total loss in demand due to any reason from perm to I485.
Abandonment - Job Loss, leaving for any reason etc, something that was prevalent in 2008.
There is high likelihood that the transformation factor may be less post Jul 2007 because people did not have the cushion of EAD / AP. The factor of 1 comes from the first 6 months of 2007 as tonyromo had calculated. Sun I think the 2 of us have always understood your point has always been about “Abandonment”, somewhere the jargon has become confusing. If you have better terminology please propose.


T- thanks for your time for detailed reply (as always :) ).

To avoid any further confusion we can go with terminology of 'demand destruction' or 'DD' IMO- unless some has better one.
My only suggestion would be that lets bring everything around convertion ratio without mention of 38% . With out context when some one sees 38% then its not palatable and then we keep discussing same points all over. :)

[BBear123]

Based on 'actual data' there is consensus at PERM-> I485 convertion ratio of 1 for EB2. In another words if there are approx. 28000 EB2/3IC PERM applications then those will result into approx. 28000 I485 EB2IC applications. Now this conversion factor includes factor of 38%. (IMO we should not really call this as demand destruction)
Due to extraordinary situation in 2008 some people on this forum ( like me ) believe that there may be some more DD on top of above. i.e PERM -> I485 conversion factor is less than 1 for PD2008.(We dont have concrete data to back this theory up yet so we are looking for some pointers to indirectly deduce some numbers)

Thanks for that.


See Teddy's post on first page, that explains the assumptions.
One thing to note is that 38% is not just the I140 denial rate. It is a single factor incorporating a person who has an approved EB2-IC PERM but does not eventually use a visa number. Easy way to understand is start with Spec's PERM-IC numbers for a particular financial year.
- The first assumption is EB2-IC to total PERM-IC ratio assumed to be 75%.
- Second assumption is a person not using a visa number even with an approved PERM. Lets say x%. This will include I-140 denial rate (Veni once had a figure of 20% or so), I-485 denial rate (negligible), multiple PERMs (unknown), job-loss (unknown).
- Third assumption is dependent ratio - 2.125 (slightly higher than 2 basically, everyone married-why suffer alone, some with kids)
The product of these three if assumed to be 1 gives a simple way to start with PERM-IC numbers and figure out I-485 demand.
.75*x*2.125 = 1 gives x = 63% implying a 37% number for people not using a visa number even with an approved PERM. So if you take 20% as I-140 denial rate then the rest 17% becomes reduction in demand due to multiple PERMs/job loss etc.

Teddy, do you think clarifying in your post that the second assumption of 38% is a combination of 3-4 factors would help ?

Thanks for the detailed explanation. The split is clear to me now.


@ghostwriter - Thanks for going deep & dissecting it. You have actually classified the destruction into its 2 broad reasons a) Denial b) Abandonment for any reason. The factor of 2.125 was agreed after debating here on the forum. Actually the idea was purely to have a transformation factor from Perm to 485. Veni & Spec had worked quite extensively on the perm to 485 transformations and found a good correlation at 1, something like Karl Pearson's coefficient of correlation.
There could be several other factors like someone upgrading to EB1 or getting GC by FB or multiple perms but these are all hard to quantify so my idea was to have 1 factor kind of represent everything.
So it’s really a matter of terminology I would say Destruction means loss by all means i.e. either a) Denial b) Abandonment for any reason. Sun's idea of demand destruction is b) specifically as in 2008 the market situation was terrible compounded by perm issues (Later Half). Now another point to note is that we have CP as well which is not included in this transformation.
@Sun if this is agreeable
Transformation Factor - Ratio of expected 485 to perms.
Demand Destruction - Total loss in demand due to any reason from perm to I485.
Abandonment - Job Loss, leaving for any reason etc, something that was prevalent in 2008.
There is high likelihood that the transformation factor may be less post Jul 2007 because people did not have the cushion of EAD / AP. The factor of 1 comes from the first 6 months of 2007 as tonyromo had calculated. Sun I think the 2 of us have always understood your point has always been about “Abandonment”, somewhere the jargon has become confusing. If you have better terminology please propose.

Again thanks for taking the time to explain things.

[TeddyKoochu]

T- thanks for your time for detailed reply (as always :) ).

To avoid any further confusion we can go with terminology of 'demand destruction' or 'DD' IMO- unless some has better one.
My only suggestion would be that lets bring everything around convertion ratio without mention of 38% . With out context when some one sees 38% then its not palatable and then we keep discussing same points all over. :)

Sun, Thanks so we will use the terms demand destruction to represent all kinds of demand destruction and transformation ratio. I know that the 38% is not agreeable to all but it just comes by from the dependent factor of 2.125. To me the transformation ratio is 1 and the "Implied" demand destruction is 38%.
What is your figure for transformation ratio and implied demand destruction or if you like to add an extra abandonment factor to it. This way this will become more presentable. The factor of 1 stands IMHO because of more EB2 I/C applying in EB2 more than ever before. I agree in principle that lets not project the 38% figure for now; I would wait to hear back on your figures based on your thoughts and then let’s discuss this further if you like, else we will bury it till the inventory comes out. Iam definitely open to the transformation ratio being less than 1 in fact it may go down till .75 and this means much higher demand destruction ~ 53% which is 1 - (.75/(2.125 * .75)), I think going beyond this is quite unlikely.

[suninphx]

Sun, Thanks so we will use the terms demand destruction to represent all kinds of demand destruction and transformation ratio. I know that the 38% is not agreeable to all but it just comes by from the dependent factor of 2.125. To me the transformation ratio is 1 and the "Implied" demand destruction is 38%.
What is your figure for transformation ratio and implied demand destruction or if you like to add an extra abandonment factor to it. This way this will become more presentable. The factor of 1 stands IMHO because of more EB2 I/C applying in EB2 more than ever before. I agree in principle that lets not project the 38% figure for now; I would wait to hear back on your figures based on your thoughts and then let’s discuss this further if you like, else we will bury it till the inventory comes out.

Teddy-

IMO if conversion ratio 1 represents the period where people had EAD cushion etc. then for PD2008 it could be around 0.8. Again this is more of gut feel. The data coming out in near future will prove if its near 0.8 or not.

Having said that even if we apply 0.8 factor for 2008 data that still does not justify the current movement. I am kind of not ready to accept that this is purely discretionary move. We have seen they have been very conservative moving dates. So makes me wonder what factor we are missing ? May be its influenced by HR3012 but again given conservative approach why they will worry about a bill which no one knows for sure if it will become law.

[suninphx]

It is nice to see that the respected Guru Teddy finally acknowledging the movement was motivated by HR 3012. Yay!!!

And precisely for that reason, the next PD will be *at least* April 1st 2009. Please don't come and hang me if it doesn't happen. I sincerely hope it does though.

P.S. On the other hand, it is disappointing that the "too good to be true" numbers reported by KD2008 first are no longer valid. I am really curious to find out what 2008 has in store.

Sports- please make it Jan 1 2010...well...for obvious reasons :)

[TeddyKoochu]

It is nice to see that the respected Guru Teddy finally acknowledging the movement was motivated by HR 3012. Yay!!!

And precisely for that reason, the next PD will be *at least* April 1st 2009. Please don't come and hang me if it doesn't happen. I sincerely hope it does though.

P.S. On the other hand, it is disappointing that the "too good to be true" numbers reported by KD2008 first are no longer valid. I am really curious to find out what 2008 has in store.


@sportsfan33 Iam a very ordinary guy, one amongst the many, when I started my GC journey i.e. when my labor was filed I was so naive that I did not know what the visa bulletin stood for, I saw many people were scrambling to get to it to see everything current. I started to understand things only from Sep 2009 onwards and thanks to Q largely from Jan 2010 when predictions and calculations started in the right earnest. I have always kind of believed that the invisible force of HR 3012 if we may say is helping us.

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy-

IMO if conversion ratio 1 represents the period where people had EAD cushion etc. then for PD2008 it could be around 0.8. Again this is more of gut feel. The data coming out in near future will prove if its near 0.8 or not.

Having said that even if we apply 0.8 factor for 2008 data that still does not justify the current movement. I am kind of not ready to accept that this is purely discretionary move. We have seen they have been very conservative moving dates. So makes me wonder what factor we are missing ? May be its influenced by HR3012 but again given conservative approach why they will worry about a bill which no one knows for sure if it will become law.

Sun thanks, in the past they have actually been worse than conservative in moving dates. .8 is a pretty good figure. The date movement this month may well be a combination of several things, HR 3012 if not in full but partly seems to have been an influence. We have not seen 8.5 month moves in ages.

[sandeep11]

You don't have to tell your employer. I hope you have a copy of your perm and 140 approval. As someone already replied 485 is your application. All you need is a EVL from your employer on their letter head. Tell them that you need a EVL for your wife's or parents stamping. Rest of the documents you should be able to provide easily. Hire a attorney and do it yourself.

Note: I am not an attorney, please consult one if you need legal assistance.


Thx. Can the employer do anything if they find out I went behing their back to file the application? Not sure how will I get the EVD from them.

have started searching for immigration attorneys in my area. Hope something good comes out of this.... dont know what do people in "positions" get by screwing other people's lives and happines.. :(

[whereismygclost]

Should I Interfile 485 with my wife?

Hi guys,
I have a unique situation due to dates moving to Jan'09 in this visa bulletin. I have PD of Oct'07 EB2-I and filed 485 at NSC on Nov 14th along with my wife as dependent. She has her own Oct'08 PERM which is now current. I have following questions:
-Should my wife file 485 again as primary and me as dependent? Is that okay? We just want to reduce risk if either 485 goes into audit.
-My wife's company doesn't pay for 485 dependent filing(they will pay for her 485) so it should cost us about $1070 ..is this really worth doing?
-Also another issue is my wife just came to know that her 140 as filed as EB3 even though her labor which cleared audit was approved for EB2. She has spoken to her lawyer and they said they will file new 140 and 485 concurrently. Is this doable?
Gurus,please respond with your thoughts.

[bhala5]

Teddy,

Thanks for your helping to all and this is 2nd post in this forum, here is my story!!!

My first labour July 23rd 2007 was filed and denied Oct 2008.2nd labour applied Nov 2008 and withdrew due to laywer mistake on Feb 15 2009.
3rd labour was applied Feb 26 2009 and approved Jan 2010 and H1B extended based 140and got 3 years validity until Oct 2013. (came to this conutry Aug 2005)

I dont have visa stmping in my passport from Oct 2008 and I dont go my home country since then due to so many factors (Always EVL models).

Loss
My father lost his leg due to sugar patient.
My younger brother got married two weeks ago
Rejected almost 5 full time offer's in different companies.
2nd boy was born July 2010 and No help from others incl from india due to visa issue-I managed my self .
We already booked the flight tickets on last month but sudden movement for Visa bulletin we postponed my wife trip to india due to attend some religios functions and also take of care of my 2nd boy to complete religious formalities.

Is it advisible to send my wife to india as this situvation also she need to attend stamping or can i wait and see next 2 bulletins and make decition but at any cost she have to go india before June either temp or even visa reject she is ok to stay india .

Sorry for the long story, please advise that will be useful for many families who suffer with out Visa stamping

My date is Feb 26 2009.

[imdeng]

Their super conservative past is what makes the current movement baffling. It smells of panic and there doesn't seem to be anything for them to panic about. Even if DD is severe - they have a couple months to adjust PDs. Even if HR-3012 passes, they will still have a couple months to make EB-ROW U and catch up on EB-IC distribution as per law. They did not even publish the Demand Data - so we all are essentially guessing blindfolded.

Sun thanks, in the past they have actually been worse than conservative in moving dates. .8 is a pretty good figure. The date movement this month may well be a combination of several things, HR 3012 if not in full but partly seems to have been an influence. We have not seen 8.5 month moves in ages.

[imdeng]

Hold on for next VB. There is an even chance of you getting current. File 485 and then you will have EAD/AP for your wife to travel on. If you get current in next VB then you will have your EAD/AP well before June.

Sorry to hear of all the troubles man. We all know what you are going through - hopefully your troubles will end soon and you will be able to travel freely and also accept suitable job offers.

Teddy,

Thanks for your helping to all and this is 2nd post in this forum, here is my story!!!

My first labour July 23rd 2007 was filed and denied Oct 2008.2nd labour applied Nov 2008 and withdrew due to laywer mistake on Feb 15 2009.
3rd labour was applied Feb 26 2009 and approved Jan 2010 and H1B extended based 140and got 3 years validity until Oct 2013. (came to this conutry Aug 2005)

I dont have visa stmping in my passport from Oct 2008 and I dont go my home country since then due to so many factors (Always EVL models).

Loss
My father lost his leg due to sugar patient.
My younger brother got married two weeks ago
Rejected almost 5 full time offer's in different companies.
2nd boy was born July 2010 and No help from others incl from india due to visa issue-I managed my self .
We already booked the flight tickets on last month but sudden movement for Visa bulletin we postponed my wife trip to india due to attend some religios functions and also take of care of my 2nd boy to complete religious formalities.

Is it advisible to send my wife to india as this situvation also she need to attend stamping or can i wait and see next 2 bulletins and make decition but at any cost she have to go india before June either temp or even visa reject she is ok to stay india .

Sorry for the long story, please advise that will be useful for many families who suffer with out Visa stamping

My date is Feb 26 2009.

[imdeng]

My layman advice would be to wait and see what happens with your 485. If you get some trouble there then you have your wife's 485 to fall back on. Only risk is if dates retrogress behind Oct-08 but that should not be happening until the current intake matures, which is a couple months away at least.

Should I Interfile 485 with my wife?

Hi guys,
I have a unique situation due to dates moving to Jan'09 in this visa bulletin. I have PD of Oct'07 EB2-I and filed 485 at NSC on Nov 14th along with my wife as dependent. She has her own Oct'08 PERM which is now current. I have following questions:
-Should my wife file 485 again as primary and me as dependent? Is that okay? We just want to reduce risk if either 485 goes into audit.
-My wife's company doesn't pay for 485 dependent filing(they will pay for her 485) so it should cost us about $1070 ..is this really worth doing?
-Also another issue is my wife just came to know that her 140 as filed as EB3 even though her labor which cleared audit was approved for EB2. She has spoken to her lawyer and they said they will file new 140 and 485 concurrently. Is this doable?
Gurus,please respond with your thoughts.

[whereismygclost]

Thanks imdeng for your adice. My problem is I don't know when my 485 will be adjudicated and when should we get the final GC? Any thoughts? Risk is if we wait till we get GC ...dates might retrogress to before Oct'08 and my wife won't be able to file 485? I guess it's all about timing ...your thoughts on how this could play out?

My layman advice would be to wait and see what happens with your 485. If you get some trouble there then you have your wife's 485 to fall back on. Only risk is if dates retrogress behind Oct-08 but that should not be happening until the current intake matures, which is a couple months away at least.

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy,

Thanks for your helping to all and this is 2nd post in this forum, here is my story!!!

My first labour July 23rd 2007 was filed and denied Oct 2008.2nd labour applied Nov 2008 and withdrew due to laywer mistake on Feb 15 2009.
3rd labour was applied Feb 26 2009 and approved Jan 2010 and H1B extended based 140and got 3 years validity until Oct 2013. (came to this conutry Aug 2005)

I dont have visa stmping in my passport from Oct 2008 and I dont go my home country since then due to so many factors (Always EVL models).

Loss
My father lost his leg due to sugar patient.
My younger brother got married two weeks ago
Rejected almost 5 full time offer's in different companies.
2nd boy was born July 2010 and No help from others incl from india due to visa issue-I managed my self .
We already booked the flight tickets on last month but sudden movement for Visa bulletin we postponed my wife trip to india due to attend some religios functions and also take of care of my 2nd boy to complete religious formalities.

Is it advisible to send my wife to india as this situvation also she need to attend stamping or can i wait and see next 2 bulletins and make decition but at any cost she have to go india before June either temp or even visa reject she is ok to stay india .

Sorry for the long story, please advise that will be useful for many families who suffer with out Visa stamping

My date is Feb 26 2009.

In the current situation even your wife should not go to India as she might have to go for stamping, there have been numerous cases where spouses have been stuck on 221G due to the EVC model. In fact chances of making it in the EVC model require a good degree of luck. I would say that you have a fair chance in the next VB; last VB was a tsunami you are quite close now only 25 days to the next VB to come. On a personal note I and my wife could not attend her sister’s wedding because it kind of happened too fast in Nov when our own dates became current, my stamping is valid till Sep 2012 though. My suggestion to you would be to have your family travel only in an emergency if you are this close and on EVC model till you get EAD / AP in hand if you van be current next month. If the dates retrogress then it’s a risk worth taking for now just hope for the best in the next VB.

[Spectator]

@ghostwriter - Thanks for going deep & dissecting it. You have actually classified the destruction into its 2 broad reasons a) Denial b) Abandonment for any reason. The factor of 2.125 was agreed after debating here on the forum. Actually the idea was purely to have a transformation factor from Perm to 485. Veni & Spec had worked quite extensively on the perm to 485 transformations and found a good correlation at 1, something like Karl Pearson's coefficient of correlation.
There could be several other factors like someone upgrading to EB1 or getting GC by FB or multiple perms but these are all hard to quantify so my idea was to have 1 factor kind of represent everything.
So it’s really a matter of terminology I would say Destruction means loss by all means i.e. either a) Denial b) Abandonment for any reason. Sun's idea of demand destruction is b) specifically as in 2008 the market situation was terrible compounded by perm issues (Later Half). Now another point to note is that we have CP as well which is not included in this transformation.
@Sun if this is agreeable
Transformation Factor - Ratio of expected 485 to perms.
Demand Destruction - Total loss in demand due to any reason from perm to I485.
Abandonment - Job Loss, leaving for any reason etc, something that was prevalent in 2008.
There is high likelihood that the transformation factor may be less post Jul 2007 because people did not have the cushion of EAD / AP. The factor of 1 comes from the first 6 months of 2007 as tonyromo had calculated. Sun I think the 2 of us have always understood your point has always been about “Abandonment”, somewhere the jargon has become confusing. If you have better terminology please propose.Teddy. Thanks for summing it up.

Let me add my 2c worth and see if we agree.

a) Transformation Factor (TF)

The sum of factors that convert the raw PERM figures to the maximum number of I-485 applications that might be expected.

The factors taken into account are:

i) EB2%
ii) Approval rate at I-140
iii) Dependent ratio.

We all use slightly different figures. Currently, I use 65%, 80% & 2.05 which converts 1 PERM to 1.066 I-485.

b) Demand Destruction (DD)

Factors which might lower the numbers of I-485 calculated by the Transformation Factor.

These might be:

i) Multiple PERM
ii) Abandonment
etc.

In the tables I produced (what seems an age ago) I used 15% for PD2007 and 10% for PD2008. Those figures now seem somewhat optimistic, although I was also using an EB2% of 60%, which makes them slightly higher. The OR (see below) gave factors of 0.84 and 0.89 respectively.

c) Overall Ratio (OR)

The cumulative effect of Transformation Factor and Demand Destruction expressed as number of I-485 resulting per approved PERM.

Currently, I am using figures for DD of 40% for PD2007 and 35% for PD2008 to look at the low end of possible I-485 figures.

Based on the initial PERM numbers, this gives 1 PERM converts to 0.64 I-485 for PD 2007 and 0.69 I-485 for PD2008.

Even with those ratios, I get 40k potential EB2-IC I-485 for VB movement to date, including 250 Porting per month to the date the cases become ready for adjudication (2k total) and 1.5k cases from FY2011.

For an OR of about 0.8, which I have seen mentioned, the DD would need to be 25% for the TF factors I am using.

[GhostWriter]

Spec, one thing if you could clarify.
The way you lay out TF and DD, they can't be multiplied to get OR.
The DD you have is additive with ii in your TF. Basically an approved PERM will not convert to I-485 either because I-140 is denied or I-485 is denied or multiple PERM or job loss. Wouldn't it be better to lay out in the following way
Transformation Factor
(i) EB2%
(ii) % of Approved PERMs requiring a visa number = 1-(I140 denial rate + DD). Also the initial discussions with Teddy were assuming DD to be the terminology for cumulative effect of I-140 denial rate and multiple PERMs and job abandonment, but your terminology of calling the latter two unknowns as DD and keeping I140 denial rate separate seems better. That is the way many people think of demand destruction (i.e. not incorporating I140 denial rate in it).
(iii) Dependent ratio

Everything i have learnt is from this forum and your and other people's numbers, so feel free to disagree :).


Also one question i had was that the I-140 denial rate of 80% is really the rejection rate and does not include other effects.

[Feb262009]

Hi Spec,
As usual, your explanation is very clear. I too wonder like ghostwriter how the numbers will change if you subtract DD.

Hi ghostwriter,
Excellent question. I would be interested in knowing spec's answer on how DD should be calculated.

In your last line of your question, 80% is approval rate , not denial rate.
Spec, one thing if you could clarify.
The way you lay out TF and DD, they can't be multiplied to get OR.
The DD you have is additive with ii in your TF. Basically an approved PERM will not convert to I-485 either because I-140 is denied or I-485 is denied or multiple PERM or job loss. Wouldn't it be better to lay out in the following way
Transformation Factor
(i) EB2%
(ii) % of Approved PERMs requiring a visa number = 1-(I140 denial rate + DD). Also the initial discussions with Teddy were assuming DD to be the terminology for cumulative effect of I-140 denial rate and multiple PERMs and job abandonment, but your terminology of calling the latter two unknowns as DD and keeping I140 denial rate separate seems better. That is the way many people think of demand destruction (i.e. not incorporating I140 denial rate in it).
(iii) Dependent ratio

Everything i have learnt is from this forum and your and other people's numbers, so feel free to disagree :).


Also one question i had was that the I-140 denial rate of 80% is really the rejection rate and does not include other effects.

[Sandeep2011]

Dear friends,

My PD is Sept'07 and i filed my 485 in November. Got the 485 receipt notice earlier this week. I noticed that on receipt notice, priority date mentioned is December 6th, 2011 which is same as "Received Date".

The receipt also mentions "Please note that if a priority date is printed on this notice, the priority date does not reflect earlier retained priority dates".

I am not sure what this means. Is there any action that i need to take to inform USCIS about the mismatch in priority date? Any guidance on this will be greatly appreciated. Thank you.

[neospeed]

For most of the cases on I-485 receipt , priority date will be the receipt notice. So no need to worry as I-485 and I -140 are tied up.


Dear friends,

My PD is Sept'07 and i filed my 485 in November. Got the 485 receipt notice earlier this week. I noticed that on receipt notice, priority date mentioned is December 6th, 2011 which is same as "Received Date".

The receipt also mentions "Please note that if a priority date is printed on this notice, the priority date does not reflect earlier retained priority dates".

I am not sure what this means. Is there any action that i need to take to inform USCIS about the mismatch in priority date? Any guidance on this will be greatly appreciated. Thank you.

[codesmith]

What's the alien or A# ?
I'd gone for medica exam yesterday and doctor's office asked me to provide it for me and my family.
I've see mixed reviews about A#, is it i94 # or something else ?
Or can I keep it blank ?
Please let me know - what did you use and where did you get it from ?

* * I've posted this on 485 thread.
Thanks

[username]

Teddy/Others
can you please help understand how adjudication works.

PD: Dec 2007
I140 approved by company A which was acquired by Company B.
Filing 485 next week along with an amended I140 (due to acquisition).

My questions are;
1. What is the sequence of approval that take place. We will get EAD, then i 140 gets approved and 485 and get GC?
2. Will the I140 amendment process delay my GC. Premium processing of 140 is not allowed in my case.

Thanks,


Today my check got cashed (15 days of receipt date). What a relief with a request of interfiling/conversion/porting/etc. Note my lawyer did not file amended of I140.

[BBear123]

Teddy. Thanks for summing it up.

Let me add my 2c worth and see if we agree.

a) Transformation Factor (TF)

The sum of factors that convert the raw PERM figures to the maximum number of I-485 applications that might be expected.

The factors taken into account are:

i) EB2%
ii) Approval rate at I-140
iii) Dependent ratio.

We all use slightly different figures. Currently, I use 65%, 80% & 2.05 which converts 1 PERM to 1.066 I-485.

b) Demand Destruction (DD)

Factors which might lower the numbers of I-485 calculated by the Transformation Factor.

These might be:

i) Multiple PERM
ii) Abandonment
etc.

In the tables I produced (what seems an age ago) I used 15% for PD2007 and 10% for PD2008. Those figures now seem somewhat optimistic, although I was also using an EB2% of 60%, which makes them slightly higher. The OR (see below) gave factors of 0.84 and 0.89 respectively.

c) Overall Ratio (OR)

The cumulative effect of Transformation Factor and Demand Destruction expressed as number of I-485 resulting per approved PERM.

Currently, I am using figures for DD of 40% for PD2007 and 35% for PD2008 to look at the low end of possible I-485 figures.

Based on the initial PERM numbers, this gives 1 PERM converts to 0.64 I-485 for PD 2007 and 0.69 I-485 for PD2008.

Even with those ratios, I get 40k potential EB2-IC I-485 for VB movement to date, including 250 Porting per month to the date the cases become ready for adjudication (2k total) and 1.5k cases from FY2011.

For an OR of about 0.8, which I have seen mentioned, the DD would need to be 25% for the TF factors I am using.

Spectator, the organization of the gains and losses makes a lot of sense. This could be a stylistic point but wouldn't it be better to apply the dependent ratio after you account for Demand Destruction?

[suninphx]

Teddy. Thanks for summing it up.

Let me add my 2c worth and see if we agree.

a) Transformation Factor (TF)

The sum of factors that convert the raw PERM figures to the maximum number of I-485 applications that might be expected.

The factors taken into account are:

i) EB2%
ii) Approval rate at I-140
iii) Dependent ratio.

We all use slightly different figures. Currently, I use 65%, 80% & 2.05 which converts 1 PERM to 1.066 I-485.

b) Demand Destruction (DD)

Factors which might lower the numbers of I-485 calculated by the Transformation Factor.

These might be:

i) Multiple PERM
ii) Abandonment
etc.

In the tables I produced (what seems an age ago) I used 15% for PD2007 and 10% for PD2008. Those figures now seem somewhat optimistic, although I was also using an EB2% of 60%, which makes them slightly higher. The OR (see below) gave factors of 0.84 and 0.89 respectively.

c) Overall Ratio (OR)

The cumulative effect of Transformation Factor and Demand Destruction expressed as number of I-485 resulting per approved PERM.

Currently, I am using figures for DD of 40% for PD2007 and 35% for PD2008 to look at the low end of possible I-485 figures.

Based on the initial PERM numbers, this gives 1 PERM converts to 0.64 I-485 for PD 2007 and 0.69 I-485 for PD2008.

Even with those ratios, I get 40k potential EB2-IC I-485 for VB movement to date, including 250 Porting per month to the date the cases become ready for adjudication (2k total) and 1.5k cases from FY2011.

For an OR of about 0.8, which I have seen mentioned, the DD would need to be 25% for the TF factors I am using.

Spec,

Nice post.

If we do calculations based on this and add flavour of thought that 'DOS may be looking to collect 2 yr inventory' then current movement may well be justified. With assumption of avg. 25K SOFAD for FY2012 and FY2013 dates could move further into 2009 before they start retrogessing IMO.

[Spectator]

Spectator, the organization of the gains and losses makes a lot of sense. This could be a stylistic point but wouldn't it be better to apply the dependent ratio after you account for Demand Destruction?BBear123,

It doesn't make any difference and is a personal choice.

I do it that way so that I can see the I-485 figures at all stages. Since I use 2.05 dependents, then Demand Destruction just lowers the I-485 number by 2.05 per I-140 that fails to complete the entire process.

It is equally valid to reduce it by 1 per I-140, then multiply by 2.05 later, as you suggest.

[Spectator]

Spec,

Nice post.

If we do calculations based on this and add flavour of thought that 'DOS may be looking to collect 2 yr inventory' then current movement may well be justified. With assumption of avg. 25K SOFAD for FY2012 and FY2013 dates could move further into 2009 before they start retrogessing IMO.suninphx,

My post was in the spirit of the discussion that was requested, not to be prescriptive about it. I did want people to understand how I look at the terms. I am looking forward to that discussion continuing for a bit yet.

Based on the % DD I was mentioning, if CO ignores Porting, then 50k gives a Cut Off Date within touching distance of 01JAN10. That seems like a nice round figure and is exactly 1 year's further movement.

Who knows? I have given up trying to second guess CO.

[suninphx]

suninphx,

My post was in the spirit of the discussion that was requested, not to be prescriptive about it. I did want people to understand how I look at the terms. I am looking forward to that discussion continuing for a bit yet.

Based on the % DD I was mentioning, if CO ignores Porting, then 50k gives a Cut Off Date within touching distance of 01JAN10. That seems like a nice round figure and is exactly 1 year's further movement.

Who knows? I have given up trying to second guess CO.

Spec,

I understood from where you are coming from. I was just trying attach some rational to current movement using numbers in your post.

[BBear123]

BBear123,

It doesn't make any difference and is a personal choice.

I do it that way so that I can see the I-485 figures at all stages. Since I use 2.05 dependents, then Demand Destruction just lowers the I-485 number by 2.05 per I-140 that fails to complete the entire process.

It is equally valid to reduce it by 1 per I-140, then multiply by 2.05 later, as you suggest.

Got you and agreed its purely personal. I initially thought there was a better estimate at the front end of the calculation than the rear but now I realize that there are assumptions at either end.

Thanks for taking the time and great analysis.

[luckycub]

I've been reading all these discussions here with great gratitude...
--- So what is the rational prediction for next VB? Possible to end 2009 or early 2010?

[sdesh005]

I've been reading all these discussions here with great gratitude...
--- So what is the rational prediction for next VB? Possible to end 2009 or early 2010?
I'd be amazed if it gets that far! I think most gurus are saying that it is highly uncertain and unpredictable at this point as to what date would be current.

[manzoorraza]

I've been reading all these discussions here with great gratitude...
--- So what is the rational prediction for next VB? Possible to end 2009 or early 2010?

Luckycub,
Hopfully the trend will continue and we will see atleast few months. Personally hoping that it goes past past 1st may 09 but wouldnt hurt if it went all the way out to year end for 2009 or 2010........ just for your sake.
Hopes and prayers aside, it's anybody's guess right now where it will go. Best of luck to you.

[luckycub]

Luckycub,
Hopfully the trend will continue and we will see atleast few months. Personally hoping that it goes past past 1st may 09 but wouldnt hurt if it went all the way out to year end for 2009 or 2010........ just for your sake.
Hopes and prayers aside, it's anybody's guess right now where it will go. Best of luck to you.

Thanks. Let's pray and wish our wishes becomes true soon.

[manzoorraza]

Thanks. Let's pray and wish our wishes becomes true soon.

Keeping the fingers crossed. It was all going fine till this huge jump happened which caught a lot of people pleasntly off guard (who are now scrambling for paperwork) and others like us are who are now anxiously waiting for the next bulletin hoping praying wishing that we get to file and get the AP to travel freely. God forbid if we don't get current in Feb then god only knows how long this agonizing anxiety would last........don't even wanna think about it..........cruelty at its best.

[PDCurrent]

Hi,
I know this is the wrong thread, but this seems to be the most active thread of all...I am in a bit of situation. I have applie for my passport as minor and had some different signature then and after renewal i used the same signature, so tht it would be an issue, and now I have all my other documents with a different signature(i-20, OPT EAD Cards, Divers License). Will this be an issue while filing for i-485..If so any solutions??

Thanks in advance..

[ontheedge]

What's the alien or A# ?
I'd gone for medica exam yesterday and doctor's office asked me to provide it for me and my family.
I've see mixed reviews about A#, is it i94 # or something else ?
Or can I keep it blank ?
Please let me know - what did you use and where did you get it from ?

* * I've posted this on 485 thread.
Thanks

Its the A# on the I-140. Only you will have...it wont go on your derivatives' medical forms. And its not even mandatory.

[codesmith]

Its the A# on the I-140. Only you will have...it wont go on your derivatives' medical forms. And its not even mandatory.

Thanks for your reply, my attorney told me to keep it blank.

[manzoorraza]

Agree with ghost writer that everyone agrees on the 4 factors. Its just a matter of how one is comfortable with crunching numbers and what percentages one thinks appropriate. Also, life would be much simpler if there was a way to confirm what CO's assumption is on HR-3012 i.e. is he anticipating it to go through and getting ready for it or is the demand so low that he can afford to go in leaps and bounds. Personally, I want to believe the latter but it sounds too good to be true. Maybe we can do parallel scenarios in predictions - one with 3012 and the other without. Any takers?




Thanks for the clarification Spec. I understand your point now.
Also the two approaches are equivalent.
So lets say we have 100 EB2-IC approved PERMs. Assume that 20% I-140s get denied and 15% is demand destruction (job abandonment, multiple PERMs etc.).
No. of I485s can be calculated in two ways (simple set theory)
1. 100[1 - (0.2 + 0.15 - 0.2*0.15)] = 100[1-.32] = 68 (This is what i had suggested except i ignored the intersection term. There would be 3 people whose I140 would be denied and they would lose jobs, so the union of I140 denied and job abandoned is 20 + 15 - 3 = 32).
2. 100 * 0.8 * 0.85 = 68 (This is what you have and automatically takes care of the intersection. So a person will only reach I-485 if his I-140 is approved AND he doesn't abandon.)

So to simplyfy and not cause confusion I agree with what you laid out. The only thing is that the terminology between what you mentioned and Teddy's post on page 1 is different. There are four factors we are incorporating, the order does not matter since its simple multiplication.
1. % EB2
2. Approval rate at I-140
3. Dependent ratio
4. Demand destruction (Multiple PERM, Job loss etc).

You are calling the product of first three as TF, 4th as DD and product of all four as OR.

Teddy has the product of second and fourth combined labeled as Demand destruction. I think it would help if we agree on one definition and add it to the list of acronyms and refer it in a consistent way.

Overall i think we all understand the four factors and the calculations are similar.

[bhala5]

Thanks Teddy/ imdeng , I'll Pray god my PD will current next bulletin.
I will follow the way as per your advise!!!

[BBear123]

Agree with ghost writer that everyone agrees on the 4 factors. Its just a matter of how one is comfortable with crunching numbers and what percentages one thinks appropriate. Also, life would be much simpler if there was a way to confirm what CO's assumption is on HR-3012 i.e. is he anticipating it to go through and getting ready for it or is the demand so low that he can afford to go in leaps and bounds. Personally, I want to believe the latter but it sounds too good to be true. Maybe we can do parallel scenarios in predictions - one with 3012 and the other without. Any takers?

My 2 cents. I dont think HR.3012 has anything to do with priority date movement. Few reasons why.

1) The bill provides no new visas, just the removal of country based numerical limits for EB petitioners.
2) Bill doesn't kick in till 2015.
3) If at all the bill had an impact it should be on EB3 I/C and not EB2 as they have been waiting for a visa the longest. Am I missing something here?
4)If I had a high power political office, under a democratic president, I would likely not go act on anything immigration related, in an election year unless I am absolutely certain that the bill would pass. Not to mention the governments incentives to prevent any blowback from all of this.

[imdeng]

Yup. See below in red, there have been several very well done analysis of potential impact of HR-3012 on PD movement - a perusal of posts in past couple of months will give you the details, calculations and rationale.

My 2 cents. I dont think HR.3012 has anything to do with priority date movement. Few reasons why.
1) The bill provides no new visas, just the removal of country based numerical limits for EB petitioners. Not relevant for current PD movement
2) Bill doesn't kick in till 2015. Bill is effective FY 2012 (that is from Oct 2011), the transition mechanisms run till 2015
3) If at all the bill had an impact it should be on EB3 I/C and not EB2 as they have been waiting for a visa the longest. Am I missing something here? The distribution of visas within the category - both EB2 and EB3 is significantly affected by the bill. SOFAD is not affected by the bill
4)If I had a high power political office, under a democratic president, I would likely not go act on anything immigration related, in an election year unless I am absolutely certain that the bill would pass. Not to mention the governments incentives to prevent any blowback from all of this. To be sure, CO has not acted on anything. Its not like extra visas are being given. CO is just gathering inventory that will make it easier to implement HR-3012 if it became law. If it did not then CO just needs to retrogress accordingly - and no harm done.

[Reader]

Quick question for those who have already crossed this bridge...

After receiving the receipt notice, how long it takes to reflect that in USCIS check status. I received the receipts 2 days ago and when I tried to check the status in USCIS web site, it says "Your case can not be found at this time in My Case Status".

[mrhyderabad]

Thanks Teddy/ imdeng , I'll Pray god my PD will current next bulletin.
I will follow the way as per your advise!!!

Just pray GOD and keep your documents ready. I am also doing the same in anticipation of my PD becoming current.

[BBear123]

Yup. See below in red, there have been several very well done analysis of potential impact of HR-3012 on PD movement - a perusal of posts in past couple of months will give you the details, calculations and rationale.

Cool. Thanks for taking the time to reply. I am kinda new to the ballgame. Ill check out the past posts.


The distribution of visas within the category - both EB2 and EB3 is significantly affected by the bill. SOFAD is not affected by the bill

Alright, my mistake was assuming that I assumed categories were done with. Clearly not what the bill intends to do.


If at all the bill had an impact it should be on EB3 I/C and not EB2 as they have been waiting for a visa the longest. Am I missing something here? The distribution of visas within the category - both EB2 and EB3 is significantly affected by the bill. SOFAD is not affected by the bill
It shouldn't matter though, if H.R 3012 did become law, all available EB3 visa numbers should go towards EB3 I/C petitions. If CO was trying to buffer for the passage of H.R 3012, he should advance EB3 I/C as well as EB2.

[imdeng]

There is no need to advance PD for EB3IC since CO is sitting on an EB3IC inventory of 50K+ thanks to 07/07. Meanwhile, inventory of EB2IC is almost zero and will remain at that level until the intake in last few months become documentarily qualified. For getting ready for HR-3012, CO needs large inventory of pre-adjudicated, documentarily qualified applications that he can quickly assign visa numbers when HR-3012 passes. That's why it makes sense to advance EB2IC PD and not EB3IC PD.
Also - even after HR-3012 passes, all visa numbers will not go to EB3IC - the transition plan provides 85% of the visa numbers to IC in the first year. However, the actual distribution is likely to be lower than 85% since by the time the bill passes and becomes law, we would surely have assigned more than 15% of the available visas for the category to ROW.

It shouldn't matter though, if H.R 3012 did become law, all available EB3 visa numbers should go towards EB3 I/C petitions. If CO was trying to buffer for the passage of H.R 3012, he should advance EB3 I/C as well as EB2.

[imdeng]

Keep your documents ready, hope it works out for you. Also - pay it forward by supporting HR-3012 by calling your Senators.

Thanks Teddy/ imdeng , I'll Pray god my PD will current next bulletin.
I will follow the way as per your advise!!!

[BBear123]

There is no need to advance PD for EB3IC since CO is sitting on an EB3IC inventory of 50K+ thanks to 07/07. Meanwhile, inventory of EB2IC is almost zero and will remain at that level until the intake in last few months become documentarily qualified. For getting ready for HR-3012, CO needs large inventory of pre-adjudicated, documentarily qualified applications that he can quickly assign visa numbers when HR-3012 passes. That's why it makes sense to advance EB2IC PD and not EB3IC PD.
Also - even after HR-3012 passes, all visa numbers will not go to EB3IC - the transition plan provides 85% of the visa numbers to IC in the first year. However, the actual distribution is likely to be lower than 85% since by the time the bill passes and becomes law, we would surely have assigned more than 15% of the available visas for the category to ROW.
Much obliged for the info.

[imdeng]

Assuming that Demand Destruction is real - lets say EB2IC demand of 1600/month in 2007 (from Apr-15), 1800/month in 2008 and 1200/month in 2009. This gives us a total 2012 FY pipeline of 1600*8.5 + 1800*12 = 13600 + 21600 ~ 40K.

Now, assuming that HR-3012 becomes law on Jan-31st, then by that time we would have distributed four months worth of EB2ROW visas. If we consider ROW demand to be 2K/month - that is 8K to ROW. Since this is already more than 15% of 40K, all remaining EB2 visas will go to IC: 32K. Further, lets add a spillover of 8K from EB1. So total EB2IC visa needed: 32K + 8K = 40K.

As you can see, given our sets of assumptions, the entire inventory up to Jan-01-2009 will get cleared if HR-3012 is passed by the end of Jan-2012. Now, what does it mean for the next VB? The only movement left is for a possible extra buffer. Assuming a buffer of 6K, it amounts to 5 months demand in 2009 (6/1.2).

So my (worthless) prediction for next VB: 01-Jan-09 + 5 Months = 01-JUN-09.

Of course, the above will get adjusted up or down depending upon how actual numbers that USCIS/DoS observe differ from the assumptions above. For the record, the case above is quite optimistic and probably the best case scenario.

If HR-3012 actually passes by end of Jan-2012, then based on assumptions above, all EB2IC demand up to 01-Jan-09 (40K) will get consumed in FY2012. DoS will need additional EB2IC inventory for the large demand for visa numbers in FY2013. At 90% of EB2 and 8K spillover from EB1, EB2IC will need 0.9*40 + 8 = 44K applications. This will easily cover the entire 2009 (1.2K*12 = 14.4K) and 2010 (2.5K*12 = 30K). I am assuming a higher 2.5K/month for 2010 since it is very dense in PERM filings. Any buffer needed will push the PD into 2011. Assuming again a 6K buffer and 3K/month density in 2011 - that is 2 months' demand.

So my prediction for PD for the Mar VB, assuming that HR-3012 becomes law by end of Jan 2012: 01-MAR-2011.

[gkjppp]

So many factors comes into consideration for Visa movements. I can say, i got minimal knowledge in this subject,but based on Guru's inputs< DD between 30% to 38%> dates further moves till end of Dec 2009 in coming 2 bulletins , which builds pipeline of 45K to 50K.we are all aware now AUG/SEP07 filers are getting GC's, so instead of retro, it STALLS there till end of Sep 2012. Even without HR 3012,with SOFAD 2012 dates moves to Apr 2010 between OCT 2012 to Jan 2013. if HR 3012 gets Senators approval by Mar 2012, logistics changes.

[Transformer]

Assuming that Demand Destruction is real - lets say EB2IC demand of 1600/month in 2007 (from Apr-15), 1800/month in 2008 and 1200/month in 2009. This gives us a total 2012 FY pipeline of 1600*8.5 + 1800*12 = 13600 + 21600 ~ 40K.

Now, assuming that HR-3012 becomes law on Jan-31st, then by that time we would have distributed four months worth of EB2ROW visas. If we consider ROW demand to be 2K/month - that is 8K to ROW. Since this is already more than 15% of 40K, all remaining EB2 visas will go to IC: 32K. Further, lets add a spillover of 8K from EB1. So total EB2IC visa needed: 32K + 8K = 40K.

As you can see, given our sets of assumptions, the entire inventory up to Jan-01-2009 will get cleared if HR-3012 is passed by the end of Jan-2012. Now, what does it mean for the next VB? The only movement left is for a possible extra buffer. Assuming a buffer of 6K, it amounts to 5 months demand in 2009 (6/1.2).

So my (worthless) prediction for next VB: 01-Jan-09 + 5 Months = 01-JUN-09.

Of course, the above will get adjusted up or down depending upon how actual numbers that USCIS/DoS observe differ from the assumptions above. For the record, the case above is quite optimistic and probably the best case scenario.

If HR-3012 actually passes by end of Jan-2012, then based on assumptions above, all EB2IC demand up to 01-Jan-09 (40K) will get consumed in FY2012. DoS will need additional EB2IC inventory for the large demand for visa numbers in FY2013. At 90% of EB2 and 8K spillover from EB1, EB2IC will need 0.9*40 + 8 = 44K applications. This will easily cover the entire 2009 (1.2K*12 = 14.4K) and 2010 (2.5K*12 = 30K). I am assuming a higher 2.5K/month for 2010 since it is very dense in PERM filings. Any buffer needed will push the PD into 2011. Assuming again a 6K buffer and 2K/month density in 2011 - that is 3 months' demand.

So my prediction for PD for the Mar VB, assuming that HR-3012 becomes law by end of Jan 2012: 01-APR-2011.

Did you consider the family factor in your calculations??

[kd2008]

Another look at trackitt trend

I-485EB tracker:

EB2I: PD Jan 2007 to June 2007: 646 Primary, 51 dependent
Eb2I: PD Sep 2007 to Feb 2008: 222 Primary, 26 dependent

Jan 2007 to June 2007 was 14492 PERM
Sep 2007 to Feb 2008 was 15240 PERM


We might see more additions to Sep 2007 - Feb 2008 period in future, but it unlikely to go more than double what it is right now.

Since this is I485EB trend, it is a more clearer sign of the demand or rather demand destruction

This may give us a factor of much less than 1 for PERM to I-485 conversion to demand. I am thinking more like 0.6 to 0.7. Lets see what happens in Jan 2012 USCIS I-485 inventory report.

[Feb262009]

Pls move this to appropriate thread after reply.

I need some advice. My pd is Feb 26, 2009. I see lot of positive predictions that I may get current in Feb bulletin. Meanwhile my husband is on h1b. His h1b extension is pending. His previous 797 date ended in oct 2010. He is in the process of h1b transfer for EVC model with no client letter. He thinks this move is really good for his future employment.

He has to start his new job in 2weeks. Lca is applied last week. H1b transfer will be applied in premium.

Question is, if we get RFE on h1b transfer, and we get current in Feb bulletin, will we be in trouble as far as the status is concerned?

[suninphx]

Another look at trackitt trend

I-485EB tracker:

EB2I: PD Jan 2007 to June 2007: 646 Primary, 51 dependent
Eb2I: PD Sep 2007 to Feb 2008: 222 Primary, 26 dependent

Jan 2007 to June 2007 was 14492 PERM
Sep 2007 to Feb 2008 was 15240 PERM


We might see more additions to Sep 2007 - Feb 2008 period in future, but it unlikely to go more than double what it is right now.

Since this is I485EB trend, it is a more clearer sign of the demand or rather demand destruction

This may give us a factor of much less than 1 for PERM to I-485 conversion to demand. I am thinking more like 0.6 to 0.7. Lets see what happens in Jan 2012 USCIS I-485 inventory report.

Is there any set time period when inventory comes out? Like 1st week of Jan etc?

[imdeng]

Demand numbers I have used are all inclusive.

Did you consider the family factor in your calculations??

[imdeng]

My understanding is that I-485 tracker is only for people who have filed 485. Now, of course almost all applicants with PD between Jan-Jun 2007 did so more than four years back - but Sep 07 to Feb 08 people have just had the opportunity to do so a couple months back - it takes a while for people to get around to creating account in trackitt, put info in tracker etc. Plus people who filed recently have had their dates current since they filed - so they have a lot less worry than the pre 07/07 crowd - that also leads to less obsessive tracking and hence less numbers in 485 tracker.


I-485EB tracker:

EB2I: PD Jan 2007 to June 2007: 646 Primary, 51 dependent
Eb2I: PD Sep 2007 to Feb 2008: 222 Primary, 26 dependent

Jan 2007 to June 2007 was 14492 PERM
Sep 2007 to Feb 2008 was 15240 PERM

[Spectator]

I am assuming a higher 2.5K/month for 2010 since it is very dense in PERM filings. Any buffer needed will push the PD into 2011. Assuming again a 6K buffer and 2K/month density in 2011 - that is 3 months' demand.[/B]imdeng,

I understand what you say is entirely speculative, but interested to know why you have a lower density for 2011 compared to 2010.

The PERM approvals per month are far higher in 2011 for IC. http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?85-PERM-Breakdowns-For-PD-%28including-Monthly-Breakdown%29-for-China-amp-India

In 2010 PERM approvals were 24.6k; 2011 is heading for well over 30k, since the 17k to date only represent about half a year.

[kd2008]

imdeng,

I understand what you say is entirely speculative, but interested to know why you have a lower density for 2011 compared to 2010.

The PERM approvals per month are far higher in 2011 for IC. In 2010 PERM approvals were 24.6k; 2011 is heading for well over 30k, since the 17k to date only represent about half a year.

In addition, 2010 PERMs are heavily loaded at the end. Jan 2010 to Sept 2010 amounts to 15k and last three months amount to almost 9k

[imdeng]

Spec - you are right - 2011 does seem more dense than 2010. I was writing from memory and even though I remember the discussion here regarding high PERM density in 2011, I still had the impression that 2010 is most dense - not the case as your data clearly shows. Thanks for pointing out.

imdeng,

I understand what you say is entirely speculative, but interested to know why you have a lower density for 2011 compared to 2010.

The PERM approvals per month are far higher in 2011 for IC. http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?85-PERM-Breakdowns-For-PD-%28including-Monthly-Breakdown%29-for-China-amp-India

In 2010 PERM approvals were 24.6k; 2011 is heading for well over 30k, since the 17k to date only represent about half a year.

[dce.deepak]

Hi Guys,

I have a question related to I-693 form. I went for medical test today and my doctor told me that HepA and HepB is only required for under 19 and only four are required for above 19 ( Td, MMR, Varicella and Flu ). I took those four but I am wondering about the HepA and HepB.
Does any one knows more about this. I cant seem to find more info on this by age either on CDC or USCIS

Sorry for posting here but I tried first on other section (I-485) and no one seems to be active there

[iamsheshu]

From this post http://desiways.wordpress.com/ it seems that HepA and HepB is required. Not sure though. I'm going tomorrow for the Medical Exam. Will check with them.

[nishant2200]

Mine did not give either. He checked blood test, and obtained proof of antibodies for MMR, Varicella. He gave me Tdap and Flu. Maybe he also checked for Hep in my blood test, not sure, he ordered a whole lot of tests, including CBC, and various blood panels (I work in medical industry so know this stuff), in fact he even checked my cholesterol, diabetes etc, since the blood test covered by insurance.


Hi Guys,

I have a question related to I-693 form. I went for medical test today and my doctor told me that HepA and HepB is only required for under 19 and only four are required for above 19 ( Td, MMR, Varicella and Flu ). I took those four but I am wondering about the HepA and HepB.
Does any one knows more about this. I cant seem to find more info on this by age either on CDC or USCIS

Sorry for posting here but I tried first on other section (I-485) and no one seems to be active there

[mar292010]

Hi All
I'm new to this forum and joined this yesterday. My PD is March 2010 EB2 India, please can you tell me when can my PD be current. Thanks

[Jonty Rhodes]

Gurus, I have a question.

Is it true that people who were working here before and had their GCs filed (LC and I-140 approved in EB2 and EB3 category) but who may have gone back to India for various reasons can still apply for CP if their PDs are current? Do they have to have a future employment offer with the same employer in order to file for CP? I know a few who were here on EB2 and EB3 but their companies wanted them to work for them in India and some of them basically told me that they were just waiting for their PDs to be current.

I am asking this because I have seen people asking these questions on some forums.

Also, I was wondering if this is possible than are we looking at increased CP filings and possible surge in demand?

Please educate me.

[manzoorraza]

Jonty,
This is very possible as the GC is for future employment. One of my friends had some issues with his H1 while he had an approved 140 and had to go to India to come back on H4 where he had preblems getting that stamped too........ ended up being stuck there for a few months. More complications followed as the visa officer put his case on hold and questioned his wife's H1 (both were through the same company). During that time his attorney had told him that in the worst case he would be able to file for 485 on the basis of his already approved 140 and an emplyment offer whenever the date became current for him. Fortunately for him he was able to come back on H4 and then got another H1 to start working. His original priority date was Feb 2008 and I believe he filed for an adjustment of status on that basis already on 1st December.

Am not sure how many such cases could exist but there is a possibility that there might be a few...would not expect them to be significant though. Also, am not sure who would want to move back here as people back home are doing a lot better than what's going on here. On ligher note.....they have more stable jobs, good money, decent savings rate and best of all they are closer to friends and family. We on the other hand are cleaning our own toilets, living paycheck to paycheck, doing lot of sulking alone while waiting for the next visa bulletin ..lol


Gurus, I have a question.

Is it true that people who were working here before and had their GCs filed (LC and I-140 approved in EB2 and EB3 category) but who may have gone back to India for various reasons can still apply for CP if their PDs are current? Do they have to have a future employment offer with the same employer in order to file for CP? I know a few who were here on EB2 and EB3 but their companies wanted them to work for them in India and some of them basically told me that they were just waiting for their PDs to be current.

I am asking this because I have seen people asking these questions on some forums.

Also, I was wondering if this is possible than are we looking at increased CP filings and possible surge in demand?

Please educate me.

[gkjppp]

per current trend hopefully yours will become current anywhere between Oct - Dec2012 ( without HR 3012 ) , if HR 3012 becomes law you can expect to file during summer 2012.

[suninphx]

Gurus, I have a question.

Is it true that people who were working here before and had their GCs filed (LC and I-140 approved in EB2 and EB3 category) but who may have gone back to India for various reasons can still apply for CP if their PDs are current? Do they have to have a future employment offer with the same employer in order to file for CP? I know a few who were here on EB2 and EB3 but their companies wanted them to work for them in India and some of them basically told me that they were just waiting for their PDs to be current.

I am asking this because I have seen people asking these questions on some forums.

Also, I was wondering if this is possible than are we looking at increased CP filings and possible surge in demand?

Please educate me.

IMO - its very difficult but not impossible, specially if you are working for same company after going back to India. Important point is where the job would be located after you get GC. If compnay still wants you to work in India then not sure how much support you will get in that case. All this my based on my very limited knowledge. Lets wait for other's opinions.

[Spectator]

Gurus, I have a question.

Is it true that people who were working here before and had their GCs filed (LC and I-140 approved in EB2 and EB3 category) but who may have gone back to India for various reasons can still apply for CP if their PDs are current? Do they have to have a future employment offer with the same employer in order to file for CP? I know a few who were here on EB2 and EB3 but their companies wanted them to work for them in India and some of them basically told me that they were just waiting for their PDs to be current.

I am asking this because I have seen people asking these questions on some forums.

Also, I was wondering if this is possible than are we looking at increased CP filings and possible surge in demand?

Please educate me.Jonty,

Yes it is true that CP might still be a possibility, but not necessarily for everybody.

With CP, the AC21 I-140 portability rules do not apply, so CP approval is only possible for the same job and same employer as on the I-140.

As part of the Consular interview, the applicant will have to produce an EVL proving that the job continues to exist and that the Employer intends to hire them upon approval.

In the specific scenario you outlined, where it was a planned decision by the Employer/Employee it would be possible.

For cases where job loss led to the return, it is not likely the EVL could be produced for the original job on the I-140.

I wondered whether there might be a slight uptick (nothing significant) in CP cases where a Porter already has an EB3 I-485 in progress, but chose to designate CP for the EB2 I-140.

I haven't really seen any evidence of huge increases to date. The NVC Waiting List (http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/WaitingListItem.pdf) shows 3,705 EB2-I CP cases pending as of November 1, 2011.

In the 2009 report, the figure was 2,996 and the 2010 report had a figure of 3,350. So, it appears to be increasing at about 350 cases per year.

[qesehmk]

Jonty

Its possible if the future employment offer is still in place.

As Spec correctly points out - AC21 doesn't apply for CP.

p.s. - There have been many cases where people left for india (and abandoned their GC application) but their 485s were still approved and they received GCs in US at a friend's address. But these are cases where USCIS overlooked. As a rule USCIS would consider such applications abandoned.


Gurus, I have a question.

Is it true that people who were working here before and had their GCs filed (LC and I-140 approved in EB2 and EB3 category) but who may have gone back to India for various reasons can still apply for CP if their PDs are current? Do they have to have a future employment offer with the same employer in order to file for CP? I know a few who were here on EB2 and EB3 but their companies wanted them to work for them in India and some of them basically told me that they were just waiting for their PDs to be current.

I am asking this because I have seen people asking these questions on some forums.

Also, I was wondering if this is possible than are we looking at increased CP filings and possible surge in demand?

Please educate me.

[msekhar14]

Hello Friends,

My PD in EB2 is June 2010. Can someone predict when it will be current (with HR 3012 and without HR3012). My knowledge is very limited in GC processing. Thanks in advance!!

[iatiam]

I have been trying to believe in this more optimistic scenario for a long time now. I have no new numbers to back up. Here is the logic,
1. The pre-approved PERM process came to an end some where in June 2007. This was fraud prone and some one could actually buy a PERM for 10K before. What percentage of PERMS were actually pre-approved ones?
2. I have a few friends who tried to apply PERM during 2008-2010 time frame. None of them could make it past that stage - they were all laid off. The DD is much larger than we think it is.
3. Not sure where the 70:30 ratio of EB2:EB3 ratio comes from. I work in the oil and gas industry where employers are very adamant not to file in EB2. Things might be better for the IT industry. But the crack down on Desi consulting industries were severe during the downturn. Getting an H1B extension was a big deal, forget about GC.
4. CO's has gone for a buffet and he wants to fill his plate. Whether he does it in one round (BTM) or several rounds is upto him. Both are logical and makes sense.
So apply Occam's Razor here - Every thing being same the best explanation is the simplest one. ie dates are moving fast and they will move even faster for the next 2-3 VBs

Disclaimer: My PD is Aug 2009. This could also be my wishful thinking.

[imdeng]

Welcome to Aug 2009 club. I am happy just being in the discussion this early even with wishful thinking.

We all have anecdotal evidence of DD - hopefully the Demand Data or 485 inventory will soon help us quantify the extent of DD.

About EB2:EB3 split, the impression of 70:30 split is strengthened by the fact that we haven't come across many EB3I with 2008/09/10 PD. This forum is EB2 focussed - but I am sure Teddy can confirm that even in his ** thread which includes EB3, he has rarely come across EB3 with post-2007 PDs.



Disclaimer: My PD is Aug 2009. This could also be my wishful thinking.

[gkjppp]

I just checked Perm Data for year 2010, it looks intresting. I can't beleive 2010 filings are less than 2009?

http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.gov/pdf/OFLC_2010_Annual_Report_Master.pdf

[iatiam]

Thanks Brother Deng. I will PM you when we have to file for 485 in Feb 2012 :p Till then enjoy the snow in Milwaukee.


Welcome to Aug 2009 club. I am happy just being in the discussion this early even with wishful thinking.

We all have anecdotal evidence of DD - hopefully the Demand Data or 485 inventory will soon help us quantify the extent of DD.

About EB2:EB3 split, the impression of 70:30 split is strengthened by the fact that we haven't come across many EB3I with 2008/09/10 PD. This forum is EB2 focussed - but I am sure Teddy can confirm that even in his ** thread which includes EB3, he has rarely come across EB3 with post-2007 PDs.

[imdeng]

You have the wrong impression. PERM Certified for FY2010 is 70,854, for FY2009 is 29,388, for FY2008 is 48,923 (See Page 16 in the report). We have gone through this report before and have also validated it against Spec's PERM Data analysis posted in the Facts and Data section.

Update: I jumped the gun. Cases certified are higher but cases filed are indeed lower in 2010 (page 14 in the report). Interesting.

I just checked Perm Data for year 2010, it looks intresting. I can't beleive 2010 filings are less than 2009?

http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.gov/pdf/OFLC_2010_Annual_Report_Master.pdf

[BBear123]

I have been trying to believe in this more optimistic scenario for a long time now. I have no new numbers to back up. Here is the logic,
1. The pre-approved PERM process came to an end some where in June 2007. This was fraud prone and some one could actually buy a PERM for 10K before. What percentage of PERMS were actually pre-approved ones?
2. I have a few friends who tried to apply PERM during 2008-2010 time frame. None of them could make it past that stage - they were all laid off. The DD is much larger than we think it is.
3. Not sure where the 70:30 ratio of EB2:EB3 ratio comes from. I work in the oil and gas industry where employers are very adamant not to file in EB2. Things might be better for the IT industry. But the crack down on Desi consulting industries were severe during the downturn. Getting an H1B extension was a big deal, forget about GC.
4. CO's has gone for a buffet and he wants to fill his plate. Whether he does it in one round (BTM) or several rounds is upto him. Both are logical and makes sense.
So apply Occam's Razor here - Every thing being same the best explanation is the simplest one. ie dates are moving fast and they will move even faster for the next 2-3 VBs

Disclaimer: My PD is Aug 2009. This could also be my wishful thinking.
Pre 2008, anyone and everyone who could imagine it was filing in EB2, of course I work in the semiconductor industry. This does bring an interesting point w.r.t to industries and the proportion of PERMs. Computers, Software and IT still dominate by the looks of it.

I am in the Aug 2009 boat as well. Btw.


Welcome to Aug 2009 club. I am happy just being in the discussion this early even with wishful thinking.

We all have anecdotal evidence of DD - hopefully the Demand Data or 485 inventory will soon help us quantify the extent of DD.

About EB2:EB3 split, the impression of 70:30 split is strengthened by the fact that we haven't come across many EB3I with 2008/09/10 PD. This forum is EB2 focussed - but I am sure Teddy can confirm that even in his ** thread which includes EB3, he has rarely come across EB3 with post-2007 PDs.

Its interesting, two months ago I couldn't give a hoot about the visa bulletin and now I am on this forum and crunching numbers. Perhaps the EB3 interest level is low because they are so far away from getting a green card.

[iatiam]

I hear you. I was trying to change jobs thinking that the dates will stall at June 2008. But now that I have a good offer in hand, I can't take it.


Pre 2008, anyone and everyone who could imagine it was filing in EB2, of course I work in the semiconductor industry. This does bring an interesting point w.r.t to industries and the proportion of PERMs. Computers, Software and IT still dominate by the looks of it.

I am in the Aug 2009 boat as well. Btw.



Its interesting, two months ago I couldn't give a hoot about the visa bulletin and now I am on this forum and crunching numbers. Perhaps the EB3 interest level is low because they are so far away from getting a green card.

[Spectator]

I just checked Perm Data for year 2010, it looks intresting. I can't beleive 2010 filings are less than 2009?

http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.gov/pdf/OFLC_2010_Annual_Report_Master.pdfgkjppp,

Those figures (a 28% drop) look correct since it relates to receipts in a Fiscal Year (October-September).

To date (according to the PERM databases) there has been a decision (Certified, Denied or Withdrawn) on cases received in the relevant FY:

FY2009 - 58,097 out of 60,977 (95.28%)
FY2010 - 43,240 out of 43,984 (98.32%)

The figure for FY2010 looks a bit high, unless audit numbers have declined but the overall figures bear out the difference noted in the Report.

As it relates to Priority Dates, in FY2009 the applications received were biased towards CY2008 (34% of all applications with a decision were submitted in October to December 2008).

Looking at the numbers by Calendar Year (January to December), the two years were quite similar in terms of Receipts. CY2009 received 48.3k applications that have had a decision and CY2010 received 48.7k applications that have had a decision to date.

As a P.S. DOL reported that FY2011 Receipts for the period Oct-May were 63% higher than the corresponding period in FY2010.

[feedmyback]

So, till now we discussed that 2009 is a very light year. And 2010 is much denser. Now, from this data, can we at least say that 2010 is also as light as 2009 if not lighter?


gkjppp,

Those figures (a 28% drop) look correct since it relates to receipts in a Fiscal Year (October-September).

To date (according to the PERM databases) there has been a decision (Certified, Denied or Withdrawn) on cases received in the relevant FY:

FY2009 - 58,097 out of 60,977 (95.28%)
FY2010 - 43,240 out of 43,984 (98.32%)

The figure for FY2010 looks a bit high, unless audit numbers have declined but the overall figures bear out the difference noted in the Report.

As it relates to Priority Dates, in FY2009 the applications received were biased towards CY2008 (34% of all applications with a decision were submitted in October to December 2008).

Looking at the numbers by Calendar Year (January to December), the two years were quite similar in terms of Receipts. CY2009 received 48.3k applications that have had a decision and CY2010 received 48.7k applications that have had a decision to date.

As a P.S. DOL reported that FY2011 Receipts for the period Oct-May were 63% higher than the corresponding period in FY2010.

[Spectator]

So, till now we discussed that 2009 is a very light year. And 2010 is much denser. Now, from this data, can we at least say that 2010 is also as light as 2009 if not lighter?feedmyback,

Although the total number of PERM approvals for All Countries in CY2009 and CY2010 were comparable (41.7k vs 43.1k), ROW-MP numbers fell (22.9k vs 18.5k) and IC numbers increased (18.8k vs 24.6k). China numbers were virtually unchanged, so all the increase came from India.

This means the density of Indian cases is actually higher in CY2010 than CY2009.

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?50-PERM-Data-and-Calculations

[feedmyback]

Got it. Thanks Spec...

[RMS_V13]

AOS Medicals

Sorry to post here, quite a bit urgent..

My blood results showed I require the MMR vaccine. My Dr gave me the 1st dose of the shot and said I will have to get the 2nd dose in another 1 month. That would be mid January.

My PD is current on Jan 1st. The Dr has given a report saying 1 MMR shot taken and 1 more to go. He says to submit the sealed envelope mentioning the same and send another follow up mid Jan. Is this okay? Or chance of an RFE?

Any one had just 1 MMR shot and not the 2nd and still submitted the forms

[sdesh005]

I hear you. I was trying to change jobs thinking that the dates will stall at June 2008. But now that I have a good offer in hand, I can't take it.
I'm June-09 and recently changed jobs. My new PERM was filed just this month and I'm hoping and praying that my PD (PD porting) shouldn't get current and then retrogress before my new PERM is approved!! If that happens I'll be super-pisseD! :D

Had I known this VB business is going to get this crazy this early, I'd have had stay put at my old job for a few more months. But anyway, even right now I could be looking at anywhere between 1 month to a year for my PD to be current. And getting a GC is an altogether different story...another 2 yrs may be? Sigh!

[qesehmk]

That's ok. That's the whole point of this forum. People shouldnt hold their life back in pursuing GC.

Your overall wait to GC wouldnt be hurt no matter how many jobs you changed - as long as your PD is captured. Jun 09 is a bit out in the future, but as a rule, 5 years from PD is standard. In your case you could get lucky and get it in 2013.


I'm June-09 and recently changed jobs. My new PERM was filed just this month and I'm hoping and praying that my PD (PD porting) shouldn't get current and then retrogress before my new PERM is approved!! If that happens I'll be super-pisseD! :D

Had I known this VB business is going to get this crazy this early, I'd have had stay put at my old job for a few more months. But anyway, even right now I could be looking at anywhere between 1 month to a year for my PD to be current. And getting a GC is an altogether different story...another 2 yrs may be? Sigh!

[vizcard]

AOS Medicals

Sorry to post here, quite a bit urgent..

My blood results showed I require the MMR vaccine. My Dr gave me the 1st dose of the shot and said I will have to get the 2nd dose in another 1 month. That would be mid January.

My PD is current on Jan 1st. The Dr has given a report saying 1 MMR shot taken and 1 more to go. He says to submit the sealed envelope mentioning the same and send another follow up mid Jan. Is this okay? Or chance of an RFE?

Any one had just 1 MMR shot and not the 2nd and still submitted the forms

I'm not in this situation but it shouldn't be any problem. even if there is a RFE, you will have records to show you've been taking them.

[sdesh005]

That's ok. That's the whole point of this forum. People shouldnt hold their life back in pursuing GC.

Your overall wait to GC wouldnt be hurt no matter how many jobs you changed - as long as your PD is captured. Jun 09 is a bit out in the future, but as a rule, 5 years from PD is standard. In your case you could get lucky and get it in 2013.
I agree. I'm not so worried about getting the actual card which could go well into
2013 I know. However my concern is the Pd being current given the movement we're seeing of late. Getting a chance at EAD/AP would be something I'll hate to miss just because my LC isn't done and hence can't file concurrently! Hopefully my LC should come thru by March, it remains to be seen whether dates reach June 09 and stay there by then.

[harick]

AOS Medicals

Sorry to post here, quite a bit urgent..

My blood results showed I require the MMR vaccine. My Dr gave me the 1st dose of the shot and said I will have to get the 2nd dose in another 1 month. That would be mid January.

My PD is current on Jan 1st. The Dr has given a report saying 1 MMR shot taken and 1 more to go. He says to submit the sealed envelope mentioning the same and send another follow up mid Jan. Is this okay? Or chance of an RFE?

Any one had just 1 MMR shot and not the 2nd and still submitted the forms

This should not be a problem. While submitting the medical form all you need to prove that you started taking the dosage suggested by the civil surgeon.

For example if somebody is asked take TB medication, the course would be for 90 days. If civil surgeon indicates that the person started taking the medication then they are good

[shashinehal]

That's ok. That's the whole point of this forum. People shouldnt hold their life back in pursuing GC.

Your overall wait to GC wouldnt be hurt no matter how many jobs you changed - as long as your PD is captured. Jun 09 is a bit out in the future, but as a rule, 5 years from PD is standard. In your case you could get lucky and get it in 2013.

Q ,

Does this mean that with PD March 2011 Eb2, there is not chance to get GC before 2014 ?
I am actually dilemma on whether to take FT and start over PERM and I-140 or not.
Do you think its safe to take chance ? my new employer is not gauranting immediate filing on PERM, as per policy it might take 6-8 months time to start my PERM, so is it safe to move on or just stick on to where i am currently ?
Note; My PD is March 2011 , EB2

[redsox2009]

Based on the Perm reports which was printed in 2009 and 2010, the number of per applications came down. Also starting 2005, number of h1b filings came down from 130k(or 110k) to 65K+20K, this is also places role in number of applications coming down, since 2005 applicants 6th year came in 2010 and so few applications coming to labor dept.

In FY 2010 employers filed 43,984 applications, a 28 percent decrease from FY 2009 in which 60,977 applications were filed. The decrease in application filings may reflect, in part, the impact of unemployment in the U.S. and the consequent ability of employers to find willing and qualified U.S. workers to fill their employment needs.

http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.gov/pdf/OFLC_2010_Annual_Report_Master.pdf

In FY 2009, Furthermore, the Professional, Scientifi c, and Technical Services Industry, which accounts for the largest number of permanent certifications in the PERM program, decreased over 37 percent.

My guestimate is by end of May/June 2012, EB2 can move upto mid 2009 or end of 2009.

[vizcard]

From this post http://desiways.wordpress.com/ it seems that HepA and HepB is required. Not sure though. I'm going tomorrow for the Medical Exam. Will check with them.

I had my medicals done last week. The doc checked hep a and b as "not age appropriate". Guessing it's not required.

[mygctracker]

Friends,

I have a family emergency and not able to decide whether or not to travel to India. Seeking your inputs.

Filed my I-485 at TSC on 12/9/2011 - PD is 01/16/2008. I have not received the receipts yet, not sure how long it will take. I know after EAD/AP is approved it is safe to travel.

I dont have H1B visa stamp, but do have I-797 approval.

a) Can one travel when no receipts of I-485?
b) Can one travel after receiving just receipts, not EAD/AP?
c) Ofcouse H1B stamping has to be done without AP, but is it possible?
d) How long does it take for EAD/AP in my case??

Please help with information in this difficult time. I there are information pointers please share . Thanks for your help.