EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

[saky007]

DD might not be out today. Looking at the Jan bulletins for previous years, they have collected data until the 6th or 7th business day of the month. Today is the 6th business day, so in all probability it might be tomorrow or even Monday before we see something.


P.S. - Cautiously optimistic that my P.D of May 6th 2008 will be current in the Jan bulletin.


Generally what time in a day demand data will be out?

[imdeng]

You have a good shot buddy. Even if you miss right now - its just a matter of few months for you - you will surely be current by Oct-Nov 2012.


P.S. - Cautiously optimistic that my P.D of May 6th 2008 will be current in the Jan bulletin.

[shreyasai2004]

Is DD will be out Today ????

[pdmay2008]

Is DD will be out Today ????

May be both tomorrow. Or it is possible on Mumbai consulate website tonight like last month.

[venkimakthal]

May be both tomorrow. Or it is possible on Mumbai consulate website tonight like last month.

Without Demand Data, VB will be out you mean?

[fedupwithgc]

Without Demand Data, VB will be out you mean?

Both DD and VB will be out tomorrow.

[pdmay2008]

Without Demand Data, VB will be out you mean?

It happened like that couple of months ago. Don't remember which month it was.

[gardas]

Couldn't wait to see the date move past 03/25/2008. Has been a long wait already..

[venkimakthal]

Couldn't wait to see the date move past 03/25/2008. Has been a long wait already..

Frustrating every month, only Nov VB came without much tension as VB released Oct 5.

[pdmay2008]

Frustrating every month, only Nov VB came without much tension as VB released Oct 5.

Even December Bulletin was ok, As CO already mentioned his prediction for that explicitly.

For Jan & Feb he mentioned there will be similar movements. Not sure what he means by similar movement. Hope he means 3 to 4 months like previous months.

[venkimakthal]

Done for the day, no VB and no DD

[Feb262009]

No enthusiasm around. Feels sad. Not much activity on the forum even 1 day before the bulletin.

May be you all are doing what I am doing. Refresh the page every 5 mins. :)

[yesman]

No enthusiasm around. Feels sad. Not much activity on the forum even 1 day before the bulletin.

May be you all are doing what I am doing. Refresh the page every 5 mins. :)

:) That's funny coz that's exactly what I've been doing. My PD is Apr 3 2008. Will they move it by more than 3 weeks? Will they?

[ontheedge]

I am refreshing every 1 minute :)

You guys are right...all the gurus are current and not interested anymore. Even Soggadu is all business-like and not providing any comic relief! Q, you gotta rally the troops or the traffic is going to start dwindling.

[mesan123]

Well guys.......yeap we miss Q, Soggadu , Nishanth, Monica Behen, Spec, veni....and many more of them....the thread was different few months before....May be as u all guess they are current and also it is holiday month...onething forsure most of new folks were involved much in the HR3012 bill....hoping things will change and GURU"s will be back

[Cameraman]

Hello All, I just these forums given that I have to take a decision soon. My PD is Oct,2008, EB2-I. I have to change my wife's visa status which, as we were told, could take a good 5 months. Based on what i've read here I might have to wait for another year or so before my date becomes current. Do you guys think it is a fair assumption ?

Please advise.

[Cameraman]

The GURUs have left us with a treasure trove of information.. we can start digging in slowly, I guess :)


Well guys.......yeap we miss Q, Soggadu , Nishanth, Monica Behen, Spec, veni....and many more of them....the thread was different few months before....May be as u all guess they are current and also it is holiday month...onething forsure most of new folks were involved much in the HR3012 bill....hoping things will change and GURU"s will be back

[veni001]

Well guys.......yeap we miss Q, Soggadu , Nishanth, Monica Behen, Spec, veni....and many more of them....the thread was different few months before....May be as u all guess they are current and also it is holiday month...onething forsure most of new folks were involved much in the HR3012 bill....hoping things will change and GURU"s will be back

mesan,
I agree that # of posts (volume) came down from Gurus. But we are all here, whenever new data it is available we are crunching the number.

I am not able to contribute much in the last couple of months mainly due to increased responsibilities at work (in a good way)!

[Spectator]

I think most people are still around.

Maybe there is not much to say at present.

The PERM figures were updated recently and I continue to update the Trackitt figures regularly http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?181-Trackitt-Comparison-FY2012-vs.-FY2011

I mentioned recently that I don't believe the Demand Data has much use at present and why.

While there was a backlog, we could be quantitative with the predictions - now it is trying to guess what CO is thinking and trusting to assumptions when converting PERM data to I-485 numbers

FWIW, I agree with Teddy and Nishants's recent summing up.

To date, the movement to 15MAR08 has covered around the 32k EB2-IC cases Teddy has mentioned, but most of that has not yet come through as Demand because it takes time to adjudicate the newly submitted cases. To date they may have approved up to 8.9k cases including Porting, but adjudicatable cases are running out.

Because of this, I don't expect large numbers of EB2-IC approvals in December. Maybe more importantly, the approvals seem to have been front loaded in the quarter and I am not sure that there are many more spare visas available to allocate to EB2-IC in Q1, once approvals in other Categories are accounted for. The number of EB1 approvals have been as large as EB2-ROW have been low.

Q2 is less than a month away. Within the new quarterly allocation, hopefully CO can avoid retrogressing EB2-IC much before September 2007, once the November VB filings start becoming ripe for adjudication.

As for VB movement, I think people have summed it up pretty well and it could go either way. I think it will be more forward movement in the next two VB. I would love to know if CO is getting figures from USCIS about receipt volumes - even better if we also knew what they were.

So it is wait and watch. I do think it is also correct that people have become weary with all the other activities going on.

[qesehmk]

Friends I am very much around and do care about this topic. However I have now taken up a consulting job and am travelling every week and its killing me. That's the reason i am not able to spend a lot of time on the forum. But I do keep an eye on the forum.


As per the bulletin - i think it must come by Tue. Most likely it should actually come tomorrow. I agree w Spec. There is not much to say really. The movement has already occurred as we said. Any further movement probably will be in anticipation of 3012 bill. All the best guys!

p.s. - Don't worry about the volume and visits to our forum. That never was the objective and never will be. On the contrary if we keep doing what we are doing - visits and volume will follow. Good luck for the next bulletin!

[Feb262009]

Thank you Spec, Q, veni for your reply. When we see more activities in the forum, it just feels like I am not alone and I have this community with me. This forum is like my support system that gives me hope and knowledge. Thank you every one.

[Feb262009]

Last month, US Consulate Mumbai published bulletin by this time. But today, it is not yet updated. I hope bulletin will come out Friday 12/9. Can't wait over weekend.

[Vishwanathkvs]

Jan 2012 vb updated in Mumbai consulate, eb2 india 1jan 2009.

Hope it's true

[evoori]

http://mumbai.usconsulate.gov/cut_off_dates.html

EB2 I is 1 Jan 2009

[venkat]

EXCELLENT NEWS...unbelievable

[shreyasai2004]

Is it believable news or not. If it is then I am current. How come visa bulliten first with out DD

[dorais]

Congrats to all who became current with this bulletin!

[fedupwithgc]

Congrats to all who became current with this bulletin!

Congrats to everyone who is current...

[SaturnRing]

SWEET news. Big congrats to all of us who are current. It feels almost unreal. Have spent 12 yrs in this country and finally, getting a chance to file 485 :-)

Gurus, what's your take on this move? Do you think the demand destruction is much more than what was calculated or is this purely for demand build up ( possibly for 3012)?
whatever be the reason, we'll take it :-):-):-):-):-):-)

[venkimakthal]

Congrats to everyone who is current...
I am current, many of our groups also current, I am very excited and waiting to see same in in VB

[TheTexan]

this is too good to be true... I would wait for the actual bulletin before going crazy....

[vishnu]

Obviously we will wait for the official bulletin, but here is my take on this. Part of the big move could perhaps be HR 3012 related, but I think it has more to do with the inflow of applications into USCIS as the dates were moved beyond Jul 2007. We estimated I485s based on the perm x some cancellation factor x 65-70% for EB2. It is likely the cancellation factor is bigger than what we used in our calculations (it is good to be conservative, so not being critical of the assumption) due to things like perm abandonment (less likely though) and multiple perms (due to layoffs, spouses filing etc). Multiple perms factor is significant - was talking to people who moved around in 2008-09, and a majority of them had at least 2 perms and i-140 so that they could extend their H1 beyond 6 years. Anyway, just my 2 cents...

[shreyasai2004]

Congrats to every one who are become current

[Kanmani]

CONGRATULATIONS TO ALL
03/15/08 - ontheedge
03/26/08 - Saturnring
03/28/08 - pdmarch282008
04/03/08 - yesman
04/08/08 - venkimakthal
04/18/08 - VChirakala
04/22/08 - meetasn(Satish)
04/23/08 - Vissi (vishwanathkvs?)
04/25/08 - Pedro Gonzales
04/30/08 - Makmohan
05/06/08 - saky007
05/07/08 - Aary09
05/08/08 - pdmay2008
05/08/08 - cm9201
05/19/08 - shreyasai2004
05/28/08 - zombie
06/13/08 - EB2Jun08
07/09/08 - ragx08
07/11/08 - TheTexan
07/14/08 - Sirisha
08/05/08 - sreddy
08/05/08 - gcdedo
08/20/08 - vizcard
08/25/08 - PD2008AUG25
08/26/08 - jothi prakash
09/25/08 - longgcque
09/28/08 - la_2002_ch
09/29/08 - Dreamer
10/10/08 - crux123
10/21/08 - sportsfan33
10/28/08 - leo4ever
11/10/08 - myturn
11/17/08 - punjabi
11/18/08 - vinrobo
11/26/08 - varma123
11/26/08 - Scion78
12/12/08 - Sudheer
12/19/08 - zztopfan

Hope and Pray Mumbai consulate didnt commit any mistake :-)

[Kanmani]

Nowadays Mumbai consulate is improving. anyhow we have to wait for the official bulletin. Congratulations sportsfan and pedro. have a great weekend.

[ontheedge]

Can't believe I'm just checking in after having been up for an hour or so!! Great news to begin the day...hope this is not a mistake!! All my documents, medicals, et al are ready...just need the stupid photos. Sorry for rambling...I'm too excited :)

[ontheedge]

Unbelievable!

All bets are off here. Is this a good sign for HR 3012?

Congrats to all who became current. I am in a disarray. I was not expecting this at all. I don't even think I have my birth certificate and our marriage certificate was missing. Good God.

I will be missing from action for a few days.

Go start working on getting everything ready! Congratulations my friend, know the feeling :)

[venkat]

How come my name is not on the list? how do i update my PD?
Man...this is a wonderful feeling... Now i know how people feel when their dates become currnet


CONGRATULATIONS TO ALL
03/15/08 - ontheedge
03/26/08 - Saturnring
03/28/08 - pdmarch282008
04/03/08 - yesman
04/08/08 - venkimakthal
04/18/08 - VChirakala
04/22/08 - meetasn(Satish)
04/23/08 - Vissi (vishwanathkvs?)
04/25/08 - Pedro Gonzales
04/30/08 - Makmohan
05/06/08 - saky007
05/07/08 - Aary09
05/08/08 - pdmay2008
05/08/08 - cm9201
05/19/08 - shreyasai2004
05/28/08 - zombie
06/13/08 - EB2Jun08
07/09/08 - ragx08
07/11/08 - TheTexan
07/14/08 - Sirisha
08/05/08 - sreddy
08/05/08 - gcdedo
08/20/08 - vizcard
08/25/08 - PD2008AUG25
08/26/08 - jothi prakash
09/25/08 - longgcque
09/28/08 - la_2002_ch
09/29/08 - Dreamer
10/10/08 - crux123
10/21/08 - sportsfan33
10/28/08 - leo4ever
11/10/08 - myturn
11/17/08 - punjabi
11/18/08 - vinrobo
11/26/08 - varma123
11/26/08 - Scion78
12/12/08 - Sudheer
12/19/08 - zztopfan

Hope and Pray Mumbai consulate didnt commit any mistake :-)

[asankaran]

I would say it is pure demand destruction and our Gurus have completely missed it. Anyways I would say guys in 2009 and 2010 should feel optimistic!! Congratulations for those who became current!!!

SWEET news. Big congrats to all of us who are current. It feels almost unreal. Have spent 12 yrs in this country and finally, getting a chance to file 485 :-)

Gurus, what's your take on this move? Do you think the demand destruction is much more than what was calculated or is this purely for demand build up ( possibly for 3012)?
whatever be the reason, we'll take it :-):-):-):-):-):-)

[jackbrown_890]

congratulations

[PD2008AUG25]

I am cautiously waiting for Bulletin. It sounds too good to be true, what if it is 1 Jan 2008, which was more likely than 2009. Does any one know how long we have to wait for actual bulletin?

[qesehmk]

lets hope this is real. congrats to all those current.
i think about six months of this is proactive intake.
so if i were w pd jun08 onwards i would definitely file 485 asap .



SWEET news. Big congrats to all of us who are current. It feels almost unreal. Have spent 12 yrs in this country and finally, getting a chance to file 485 :-)

Gurus, what's your take on this move? Do you think the demand destruction is much more than what was calculated or is this purely for demand build up ( possibly for 3012)?
whatever be the reason, we'll take it :-):-):-):-):-):-)

[veni001]

http://mumbai.usconsulate.gov/cut_off_dates.html

EB2 I is 1 Jan 2009

Congratulations to all those who will be current in January.

Great way to start Holiday Season and New Year.

[veni001]

lets hope this is real. congrats to all those current.
i think about six months of this is proactive intake.
so if i were w pd jun08 onwards i would definitely file 485 asap .

Agree, This could be the final intake for FY2012 (Let's hope not for FY2013!), and the chances for retro in FEB'12 VB is high.

[RMS_V13]

Wrong section I know..My wife is stuck in India and my PD (primary app) will be current in Jan '12. She is going to get her H4 done and get here by 1st Jan. What other options does she have?

How does consular processing work? Does it take longer than the regular process? Bigger risks involved? Appreciate any response. I have posted my question in the 485 Thread. Any info would be greatly appreciated

[longgcque]

One of the best morning's for me. Finally I am current .. 3.5 long yrs .. surviving job and waiting n waiting ... happy for all fellow board members .. mine is 9/25/2008 .. hope for the best.

This board is awesome .. for all its contributors .. cant list down all names .. but u all good .. may god bless us all

cheers



Congratulations to all those who will be current in January.

Great way to start Holiday Season and New Year.

[la_2002_ch]

Congrats all !!! Its a great feeling to wake up to such a good news!! hope the consulate didnt make any mistake this time. It would be really hard now to know its not true. Hope the official bulletin comes out soon!!! Waited for 3.5 years, but now CANT WAIT for few hours for the bulletin!!

[sreddy]

What a great morning news.... one of the best i heard in the recent years... Congrat every one who got current.

[mesan123]

Tnx for your replies guys(Q,VENI & SPEC).......but this move of dates in JAn bulletin is it for covering incase HR 3012 becomes LAW or less cases with USCIS...i know they are trying to get inventory, but i was curious to know how many cases are there with them now?


Friends I am very much around and do care about this topic. However I have now taken up a consulting job and am travelling every week and its killing me. That's the reason i am not able to spend a lot of time on the forum. But I do keep an eye on the forum.


As per the bulletin - i think it must come by Tue. Most likely it should actually come tomorrow. I agree w Spec. There is not much to say really. The movement has already occurred as we said. Any further movement probably will be in anticipation of 3012 bill. All the best guys!

p.s. - Don't worry about the volume and visits to our forum. That never was the objective and never will be. On the contrary if we keep doing what we are doing - visits and volume will follow. Good luck for the next bulletin!


I think most people are still around.

Maybe there is not much to say at present.

The PERM figures were updated recently and I continue to update the Trackitt figures regularly http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?181-Trackitt-Comparison-FY2012-vs.-FY2011

I mentioned recently that I don't believe the Demand Data has much use at present and why.

While there was a backlog, we could be quantitative with the predictions - now it is trying to guess what CO is thinking and trusting to assumptions when converting PERM data to I-485 numbers

FWIW, I agree with Teddy and Nishants's recent summing up.

To date, the movement to 15MAR08 has covered around the 32k EB2-IC cases Teddy has mentioned, but most of that has not yet come through as Demand because it takes time to adjudicate the newly submitted cases. To date they may have approved up to 8.9k cases including Porting, but adjudicatable cases are running out.

Because of this, I don't expect large numbers of EB2-IC approvals in December. Maybe more importantly, the approvals seem to have been front loaded in the quarter and I am not sure that there are many more spare visas available to allocate to EB2-IC in Q1, once approvals in other Categories are accounted for. The number of EB1 approvals have been as large as EB2-ROW have been low.

Q2 is less than a month away. Within the new quarterly allocation, hopefully CO can avoid retrogressing EB2-IC much before September 2007, once the November VB filings start becoming ripe for adjudication.

As for VB movement, I think people have summed it up pretty well and it could go either way. I think it will be more forward movement in the next two VB. I would love to know if CO is getting figures from USCIS about receipt volumes - even better if we also knew what they were.

So it is wait and watch. I do think it is also correct that people have become weary with all the other activities going on.


mesan,
I agree that # of posts (volume) came down from Gurus. But we are all here, whenever new data it is available we are crunching the number.

I am not able to contribute much in the last couple of months mainly due to increased responsibilities at work (in a good way)!

[mesan123]

Congrats PEDRO and all who became current...

[EB2Jun08]

Congrats to all who become current including me. its a great feeling to become current

[mrperfect]

Congrats to all who became current.. I know all Odds are against any further movement.. But i am hopeful CO can still keep this pace for next visa bulletin..

PD: 12/2009

[chagas]

Congrats to all who became current in Jan '12 bulletin !

[suninphx]

Congrats to all who became current.. I know all Odds are against any further movement.. But i am hopeful CO can still keep this pace for next visa bulletin..

PD: 12/2009

If this is real then its great news for multiple reasons

1) First and foremost...lot of people get to file 485 - congrats all who are current
2) HR3012 or no HR3012 , CO is covered
3) Within few months we will know 'actual' demand of 2008 making picture much more clearer. ( Many people have including me have been skeptical about this data)

All in all sounds positive. Good luck guys!

[qesehmk]

i think so mesan. This is most likely in anticipation of 3012.


this move of dates in JAn bulletin is it for covering incase HR 3012 becomes LAW or less cases with USCIS...i know they are trying to get inventory

[nishant2200]

Friends, seems like in parallel universe. Lots of best wishes. CO has destroyed all predictions beyond my wildest dreams.

It can be either demand destruction, to cover ground in case 3012, or purely benevolent act of kindness taking advantage of low numbers in DD.

Retrogression is certain sometime. But that time is not now obviously

Let's see if he puts any comments. I think he will hint towards retro in his last move VB.

[suninphx]

i think so mesan. This is most likely in anticipation of 3012.

Yes - CO has covered himself in either scenarios.

[dreamer]

AWESOME NEWS!!!!

Congrats for the Wishes, I am in excited-unexcited hung state until official bulletin is out :)

CONGRATULATIONS for all folks who became current!!!

[TeddyKoochu]

Friends this is great and amazing news, congratulations to everyone who is current. We are now kind of at the 45K mark from where FY 2011 ended. This bulletin can in a very large part be attributed to the positive sentiment around HR 3012; the bulletin is way beyond any expectations or predictions. All the best once again to those who became current.

[venkimakthal]

Friends, seems like in parallel universe. Lots of best wishes. CO has destroyed all predictions beyond my wildest dreams.

It can be either demand destruction, to cover ground in case 3012, or purely benevolent act of kindness taking advantage of low numbers in DD.

Retrogression is certain sometime. But that time is not now obviously

Let's see if he puts any comments. I think he will hint towards retro in his last move VB.

That's correct, what time the actual VB released last month when the dates leaked in Mumbai consulate?

[qesehmk]

My bad! I clearly misunderstood.

p.s. - removed other comments to avoid distraction. I am sorry suninphx.


Q not sure why it seem to be sarcastic comments. I was mentioning about 'CO' has covered himself in either scenarios. HR3012 or no HR3012. My previous post mentions the same.

[ontheedge]

I'm on pins and needles waiting for the 'official' bulletin. How many times has the Mumbai Consulate made a blunder? I remember one occasion. Is it safe to rely on their bulletin completely?

[suninphx]

My bad! I clearly misunderstood.

I have edited my post.

[pdfeb09]

My take is.. CO has progressed the dates this far to get a lot more intake than to just cover the SOFAD/3012.
Reasoning: If he just covers SOFAD/3012, then, as Spectator has mentioned, the DD for most of the months will not show any demand.
Too many DDs with No demand will raise the question, "Why are countries retrogressed if there is no demand for so many months?"

The only way CO could tackle this was by either retrogressing too far back from where he was on the Dec VB ( Cannot do it, since if the intake is not enough he may end up wasting Visas) ..
Advancing too much into the future, just short of making it current, so that enough demand is generated beyond the SOFAD/3012, that way the visibility of the demand increases, and they are covered both legally and from the predictability point of view.

I am expecting NO movement in the Feb bulletin, and Retro in March bulletin (possibly to Mar 08). Then it will be stagnant until the demand has been worked out .... No numbers here.. just a theory !

As Q has mentioned, make hay while the sun shines... don't wait on your 485 apps ... don't be a PWMB2 !! :) Congrats once again .. !

just my .2 cents.

[qesehmk]

many congrats sportsfan. Wish you the best!


Just an update for my friends:

Seems like we won't be filing our AoS any time soon. Incredible! My wife just today got a big jump in her group and she wants to stick it out (she is presently working in India and I will join her soon). You guys can count 2 less 485 numbers from the 2008 demand and hope for at least some of the 2009 people to be taken in this buildup.

We may come back here in the future and recapture our 2008 PD, but we are definitely not filing next month.

Good luck to all. Hope this news turns out true and hope we see a further movement in February bulletin. Let's go CO. You can give EADs for 2 years...take as many people as possible.


Wrong section I know..My wife is stuck in India and my PD (primary app) will be current in Jan '12. She is going to get her H4 done and get here by 1st Jan. What other options does she have?

Does it take longer than the regular process? Bigger risks involved? Appreciate any response. I have posted my question in the 485 Thread. Any info would be greatly appreciated
RMS,
I do not believe CP is riskier. But clearly it wont give you an EAD. That's the only drawback i see.

[imdeng]

Except for that one time when they did wrong copy-paste, they have been reliable. Past few months they have been entirely correct. So - relax - 01/01/09 is real.

I'm on pins and needles waiting for the 'official' bulletin. How many times has the Mumbai Consulate made a blunder? I remember one occasion. Is it safe to rely on their bulletin completely?

[suninphx]

My bad! I clearly misunderstood.

p.s. - removed other comments to avoid distraction. I am sorry suninphx.

You are fine Q! Lets enjoy the news! :)

[Spectator]

Friends, seems like in parallel universe. Lots of best wishes. CO has destroyed all predictions beyond my wildest dreams.

It can be either demand destruction, to cover ground in case 3012, or purely benevolent act of kindness taking advantage of low numbers in DD.

Retrogression is certain sometime. But that time is not now obviously

Let's see if he puts any comments. I think he will hint towards retro in his last move VB.Nishant,

I agree with you.

With such a large movement, there can be no excuse not to put a comment in the VB. I await that with interest.

Hopefully USCIS will publish a new Inventory as at the beginning of January 2012. That could answer the questions about actual demand and allow recalibration as necessary.

I think some members don't appreciate the uncertainty of the calculations at the moment and can only criticize, even though it has been spelt out time after time. There is one in particular who does nothing but that on several forums. Discussion as to why an assumption may be wrong and why it might be adjusted to is far more constructive.

[medatom]

Congratulations guys!. Hope the movement continues in 2012!!

[imdeng]

These are times when I miss QBF :-) We have no visibility on what is going on in the Chinese side - I would imagine they will be at 01-Jan-2009 as well.

[ontheedge]

Except for that one time when they did wrong copy-paste, they have been reliable. Past few months they have been entirely correct. So - relax - 01/01/09 is real.

Whew.....! :))

[kripton99]

i think so mesan. This is most likely in anticipation of 3012.


If it is in anticipation of 3012, then there should be some movement in EB3 too?

[luckycub]

http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_5630.html

Congrats to all who's current now!!!

[vishnu]

No Kripton - as remember EB3 I dates are only at 2002 but they have plenty of i-485s already in the system upto 2007 (during the fiasco).

[saky007]

EB2 I - Jan 1 2009 (officially confirmed :) )

http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_5630.html

[qesehmk]

Good to hear from many of you - esp teddy spec veni nishant. It's been a while we have been silent :)

[qesehmk]

My god! This is terrific news for so many people waiting to file 485 for sooooooo looooong.

EB2 I - Jan 1 2009 (officially confirmed :) )

http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_5630.html

[venkat]

OFFICIAL VB IS OUT - this is CO's comments

The China and India Employment Second preference cut-off date has been advanced at a rapid rate in recent months. As previously noted, this action was intended to generate significant levels of new filings for adjustment of status at U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) offices. USCIS has reported that the rate of new filings is currently far below that which they had anticipated, prompting an even more aggressive movement of the cut-off date for January and possibly beyond. While this action greatly increases the potential for an eventual retrogression of the cut-off at some point during the year, it also provides the best opportunity to utilize all numbers available under the annual limit.

[ontheedge]

The official bulletin is out - 1/1/09

[imdeng]

Spec - you are a gem - I am sure there are hundreds who value your opinion and analysis for every one who only raises questions. We all understand that we are working with limited data and uncertain decision making by CO. Predictions deal with making sense of the available data, of course that does not cover the entire variance - but that is to be expected. Thank you for all your work, help and support.

I think some members don't appreciate the uncertainty of the calculations at the moment (maybe they don't have the intellectual capacity) and can only criticize, even though it has been spelt out time after time. There is one in particular who does nothing but that on several forums.

[saky007]

There definetly seems to be a lot of demand destruction ! Below is the relavant note in the VB.

The China and India Employment Second preference cut-off date has been advanced at a rapid rate in recent months. As previously noted, this action was intended to generate significant levels of new filings for adjustment of status at U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) offices. USCIS has reported that the rate of new filings is currently far below that which they had anticipated, prompting an even more aggressive movement of the cut-off date for January and possibly beyond. While this action greatly increases the potential for an eventual retrogression of the cut-off at some point during the year, it also provides the best opportunity to utilize all numbers available under the annual limit.

[vishnu]

clear demand destruction baby!!! perm conversations to 485 clearly less than we calculated...

[kd2008]

OFFICIAL VB IS OUT - this is CO's comments

The China and India Employment Second preference cut-off date has been advanced at a rapid rate in recent months. As previously noted, this action was intended to generate significant levels of new filings for adjustment of status at U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) offices. USCIS has reported that the rate of new filings is currently far below that which they had anticipated, prompting an even more aggressive movement of the cut-off date for January and possibly beyond. While this action greatly increases the potential for an eventual retrogression of the cut-off at some point during the year, it also provides the best opportunity to utilize all numbers available under the annual limit.

Teddy, remember I had been optimistic and suggested aggressive demand destruction? Seems to be true. I guess next month's I-485 inventory will shed light on the actual numbers. Who knows tomorrow USCIS will turn around and say they did not count the numbers right - they did it last year!

[TheTexan]

Woooooooohhhhhhhhhhhhhooooooooooooo Congrats to all those who are current :-)

[saky007]

This is so exciting. It has not sunk in yet. After waiting for so long, finally current. Can't wait for all the freedom that comes with EAD and AP. I am sure there are tons of other members who share the same feeling.

Congrats to everyone who is current !

[essenel]

From the bulletin:

"The China and India Employment Second preference cut-off date has been advanced at a rapid rate in recent months. As previously noted, this action was intended to generate significant levels of new filings for adjustment of status at U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) offices. USCIS has reported that the rate of new filings is currently far below that which they had anticipated, prompting an even more aggressive movement of the cut-off date for January and possibly beyond. While this action greatly increases the potential for an eventual retrogression of the cut-off at some point during the year, it also provides the best opportunity to utilize all numbers available under the annual limit. "

Congrats to all those who are current!!!

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy, remember I had been optimistic and suggested aggressive demand destruction? Seems to be true. I guess next month's I-485 inventory will shed light on the actual numbers. Who knows tomorrow USCIS will turn around and say they did not count the numbers right - they did it last year!

The bulletin is definitely great news. Since the official statement is there about the demand destruction being significant I believe we should agree to that, definitely the filings have been significantly lesser that what they have anticipated. The Jan inventory will give us a good snapshot. Once again congratulations to everyone who became current, this bulletin has been a washout. I believe that the sentiment around HR 3012 has also contributed to the movement.

[nayekal]

Congratulations to those who became current. I believe, most of the new filers will be able to enjoy the benefits of EAD / AP, if not getting GC immediately. I heard from some of my friends that their consulting companies (desi) are not showing any enthusiasm in getting the AOS apps filed immediately as it doesn't benefit them in long run. Show patience with your employers and get the things done, if you guys have to bend your heads.

I also feel sorry for those, who actually left US during last 3 years, who otherwise would have applied if they were in US.

[TheTexan]

sportsfan33 - buy a lottery today :-)

[immitime]

Congrats to all who are current, and expecting HR 3012 to become Law and we can expect the same happiness and cheer from EB-3 folks.

Praying for all.

[asankaran]

Teddy,

I am glad that this bulletin has helped to change your mindset.

The bulletin is definitely great news. Since the official statement is there about the demand destruction being significant I believe we should agree to that, definitely the filings have been significantly lesser that what they have anticipated. The Jan inventory will give us a good snapshot. Once again congratulations to everyone who became current, this bulletin has been a washout. I believe that the sentiment around HR 3012 has also contributed to the movement.

[mesan123]

GURU's

So is there a possibility based on what USCIS is mentioning that if no of perm conversations to 485 is very less where did we miss that piece in calculations...just wanted to understand how the moment will be for next month...i mean how far can we expect.

Note: i may be wrong...but most of my friends who got current applied the first day of the month....as no one wanted to wait as things may change...

[kd2008]

The bulletin is definitely great news. Since the official statement is there about the demand destruction being significant I believe we should agree to that, definitely the filings have been significantly lesser that what they have anticipated. The Jan inventory will give us a good snapshot. Once again congratulations to everyone who became current, this bulletin has been a washout. I believe that the sentiment around HR 3012 has also contributed to the movement.

Oh absolutely! This just shows how crucial is EAD to folks and how difficult it has become to stay on H1B - especially when we are going through a recession.

[zenmaster]

Congratulations to all those are current !!!!!
This is just awesome...
So many people will not have to deal with that BS stamping issues.....

[pdfeb09]

OFFICIAL VB IS OUT - this is CO's comments

The China and India Employment Second preference cut-off date has been advanced at a rapid rate in recent months. As previously noted, this action was intended to generate significant levels of new filings for adjustment of status at U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) offices. USCIS has reported that the rate of new filings is currently far below that which they had anticipated, prompting an even more aggressive movement of the cut-off date for January and possibly beyond. While this action greatly increases the potential for an eventual retrogression of the cut-off at some point during the year, it also provides the best opportunity to utilize all numbers available under the annual limit.

Please make it beyond Feb, please make it beyond Feb ...

[leo4ever]

Ho hoooooo, thank for every one. I am still in phase where i am not able to belive all this. If its a dream i dont want to wake up soon.


CONGRATULATIONS TO ALL
03/15/08 - ontheedge
03/26/08 - Saturnring
03/28/08 - pdmarch282008
04/03/08 - yesman
04/08/08 - venkimakthal
04/18/08 - VChirakala
04/22/08 - meetasn(Satish)
04/23/08 - Vissi (vishwanathkvs?)
04/25/08 - Pedro Gonzales
04/30/08 - Makmohan
05/06/08 - saky007
05/07/08 - Aary09
05/08/08 - pdmay2008
05/08/08 - cm9201
05/19/08 - shreyasai2004
05/28/08 - zombie
06/13/08 - EB2Jun08
07/09/08 - ragx08
07/11/08 - TheTexan
07/14/08 - Sirisha
08/05/08 - sreddy
08/05/08 - gcdedo
08/20/08 - vizcard
08/25/08 - PD2008AUG25
08/26/08 - jothi prakash
09/25/08 - longgcque
09/28/08 - la_2002_ch
09/29/08 - Dreamer
10/10/08 - crux123
10/21/08 - sportsfan33
10/28/08 - leo4ever
11/10/08 - myturn
11/17/08 - punjabi
11/18/08 - vinrobo
11/26/08 - varma123
11/26/08 - Scion78
12/12/08 - Sudheer
12/19/08 - zztopfan

Hope and Pray Mumbai consulate didnt commit any mistake :-)

[nishant2200]

GURU's

So is there a possibility based on what USCIS is mentioning that if no of perm conversations to 485 is very less where did we miss that piece in calculations...just wanted to understand how the moment will be for next month...i mean how far can we expect.

Note: i may be wrong...but most of my friends who got current applied the first day of the month....as no one wanted to wait as things may change...

Mesan, most big law firms file in the third or 4th week. It goes thru various layers of para legals, attorney reviews and HR back forth. An example is fragomen that has done so with many of my friends. They are not bad but just huge.

[leo4ever]

Ho hoooooo, congrats who are current and thanks all. I am still in a phase where i am not able to belive all this. If its a dream i dont want to wake up soon.


Yes kanmani, I would wait for the official word. It is surreal though.

I wish they would just move it to 1st Jan. 2010 knowing how light the year 2009 was. All of 2009 folks have now waited close to 3 years and should get a chance to file. Perhaps our Gurus can have a word with Mr. Oppenheimer :-)

EDIT: BTW, I don't want to gloat, but I cposted the "2 year demand" theory on trackitt about a month ago (even before the December bulletin came out) with the observation that EADs are given for 2 years. I think that's what we are seeing here - a demand buildup that will result in green cards through the end of FY 2013. I believe we will see a movement in the February bulletin too.

[PlainSpeak]

Has anyone given a thought to EB3 india ?????????

[pdmay2008]

Congratulations every one who became current. Final day my day has come.

Thanks for every one who supported us and for their valid inputs with the numbers.

As I said yesterday. VB got released in Mumbai consulate before USA release and before Demand Data release. This is the only prediction from me that became true. I have never been able to read CO mind and no one will ever be.

Good luck every one.

[imdeng]

Okay - so we have our official confirmation that Demand Destruction is real and significant. How much - we don't know and we will not know for quite some time. It has to be quite severe for dates to move more than 6 months in one shot. Considering most EB2Is send their 485s to reach on 1st/2nd day itself, this can not be a case of delay from applicants' side.

Could it be that CO is building inventory in anticipation of HR-3012 but since he can't say that on the VB (it is not a law yet, he is only supposed to follow the existing law), he is using the excuse of DD as a fig leaf. Not saying DD is not real - just that it serves as a good excuse as well.

True to his form, he has a "possibly beyond" comment that is going to keep all 2009 PD people like me up at night the whole holiday season!

[essenel]

This is why we need to continue campaigning for H.R. 3012 at full steam.


Has anyone given a thought to EB3 india ?????????

[qblogfan]

Dear Friends,

congratulations to you! we chinese and indians have been waiting for too long and we deserve this significant movement on PD!

Just as what I said before, they should have admitted at least half of the waiting people in this FY. I believe these hard working people deserve AP/EAD! Mr.CO should have moved the PD to 2009 in this summer, but he was over conservative and kept the door closed for too long!

although I am still stuck into the trouble of 485 with my evil employer, I am so glad to see this significant movement.

dear brothers and sisters, wish you a happy Christimas!


OFFICIAL VB IS OUT - this is CO's comments

The China and India Employment Second preference cut-off date has been advanced at a rapid rate in recent months. As previously noted, this action was intended to generate significant levels of new filings for adjustment of status at U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) offices. USCIS has reported that the rate of new filings is currently far below that which they had anticipated, prompting an even more aggressive movement of the cut-off date for January and possibly beyond. While this action greatly increases the potential for an eventual retrogression of the cut-off at some point during the year, it also provides the best opportunity to utilize all numbers available under the annual limit.

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy,

I am glad that this bulletin has helped to change your mindset.

I have no issues in accepting that the demand destruction is much higher, this means the perm to I485 ratio is not even 1 quite frankly. But I do believe that partly the reason for the movement is also to have the bases covered for HR 3012.

[PlainSpeak]

This is why we need to continue campaigning for H.R. 3012 at full steam.
Wonderfull !! and what will be the outcome of the campaign ?????
Feb 2012 VB EB2 india will move to Jan 2010 and EB3 india will move by 1 week
Mar 2012 VB EB2 india will move to Jan 2011 and EB3 india will move by another 1 week
Apr 2012 VB EB2 india will move to Current and EB3 india will move by another 1 week ending at Dec 2012

I willl post here again and some one will ask me to campaign for 3012 or some other new bill .......

[nishant2200]

I did not know this! Our company's law firm usually sends the applications on the 1st if the applicant has all of his/her documents. If that's true, then maybe the USCIS will report all of the receipts of December folks by the 1st week of January and it will perhaps prompt the DOS to stop the movement? Is that what you are implying?

No I am not, these numbers would at the most gut idea be only 20% of filings.

[essenel]

I understand your pain :( EB3 will move by a significant amount if H.R. 3012 passes....


Wonderfull !! and what will be the outcome of the campaign ?????
Feb 2012 VB EB2 india will move to Jan 2010 and EB3 india will move by 1 week
Mar 2012 VB EB2 india will move to Jan 2011 and EB3 india will move by another 1 week
Apr 2012 VB EB2 india will move to Current and EB3 india will move by another 1 week ending at Dec 2012

I willl post here again and some one will ask me to campaign for 3012 or some other new bill .......

[PlainSpeak]

I understand your pain :( EB3 will move by a significant amount if H.R. 3012 passes....
The keyword here is IF and with grassleys hold the chances have reduced to insignificant. So what is the basis of any expectation ....

[Feb262009]

Wow. I am so glad. I am so close, still too far. My pd is Feb 26 2009.


Congrats everyone who got pleasant surprise! This is really worthy of holiday celebration.

Gurus, is there any hope for me next bulletin? If yes, it will make my spouse live with us as the h1b is going to max out.

For Feb bulletin, CO and USCIS may not have complete numbers as they may not be able to count all receipts. I guess they will move again? But how far? Any thoughts?

This means a lot to my family.

[punjabi]

Ho hoooooo, thank for every one. I am still in phase where i am not able to belive all this. If its a dream i dont want to wake up soon.

Thanks leo4ever
On a side note my PD is Nov 17 ,2008 & I applied through consular process . I havent got fee notice from NVC. So this movement is totally unexpected. Any idea if I need to do anything .Thanks to Q and all the gurus

[Pedro Gonzales]

Congratulations to everybody who got current. Thanks kanmani, mesan and others for the specific shoutout. sf33, congrats on your impending move. Bhagvan jab deta hai ... (translation for kanmani and qbf and other non Hindi speakers: "When God gives, he tears open the roof of your hut and gives")

Clearly demand destruction has been greater than anticipated (as many of us had thought but couldn't find data to prove), and it appears that the dates could well move further in the next bulletin but let me reiterate that this is all merely transitional. There will be retrogression and many if not most of us that benefited from this move will only receive our EADs and not our GCs until the next FY. The VB says "this action was intended to generate significant levels of new filings for adjustment of status at U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) offices." & "While this action greatly increases the potential for an eventual retrogression of the cut-off at some point during the year,".

And that is why I will continue to support HR3012 (after I take a week or two to get my application in order). I hope this move doesn't suck up all the energy we've had in the recent past. It will be interesting to see if the petition continues to garner support as it has done int he last few days: http://www.petition2congress.com/5686/please-vote-yes-on-fairness-high-skilled-immigrants-act/

[veni001]

I have no issues in accepting that the demand destruction is much higher, this means the perm to I485 ratio is not even 1 quite frankly. But I do believe that partly the reason for the movement is also to have the bases covered for HR 3012.

Teddy,
I would wait until we see the next inventory before counting on demand destruction. I don't think CO is assuming HR3012 will become law and moving EB2IC Cutoff dates!

Probably most of the people forgot by now that we talked about CO keeping two years worth of inventory as cushion.

[Spectator]

Outside of CO moving dates forward just to create future Demand, it is also worth looking at how many people might actually get approved in FY2012 based on increased Demand Destruction.

The following table shows the effect for different Demand Destruction rates and different levels of SOFAD. All dates assume 3k Porting, 70% EB2, 20% Denial rate etc.

------------------ % Destruction (PD2007/PD2008) --------------------
SOFAD -- 15%/10% ---- 25%/20% ---- 35%/30% ---- 45%/40% ---- 55%/50%

25k --- 08-Dec-07 -- 01-Jan-08 -- 22-Jan-08 -- 22-Feb-08 -- 15-Apr-08

30k --- 08-Feb-08 -- 01-Mar-08 -- 08-Apr-08 -- 22-May-08 -- 08-Aug-08

35k --- 08-Apr-08 -- 08-May-08 -- 22-Jun-08 -- 08-Sep-08 -- 15-Dec-08

42.5k - 08-Jul-08 -- 01-Sep-08 -- 15-Nov-08 -- 01-Feb-09 -- 15-Apr-09

I hope you find it useful, at least in a qualitative way.

[qesehmk]

I think Teddy has the right mindset. I would rather be conservative like him. Don't take COs words so literally. There is some demand destruction. But i wouldn't fool myself into thinking that the movement upto Jan 09 is all due to demand destruction. Personally I believe CO is making an excuse to take a large intake.


Teddy,

I am glad that this bulletin has helped to change your mindset.

[kripton99]

No Kripton - as remember EB3 I dates are only at 2002 but they have plenty of i-485s already in the system upto 2007 (during the fiasco).

Oops.. missed that point.. Thanks Vishnu, for the clarification

[bieber]

I'm in

Congrats to others who is going to be current

I hope they will make another such move and Kanmani gets in next month

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy,
I would wait until we see the next inventory before counting on demand destruction. I don't think CO is assuming HR3012 will become law and moving EB2IC Cutoff dates!

Probably most of the people forgot by now that we talked about CO keeping two years worth of inventory as cushion.

Veni, I agree with you, the ratio of 1 in fact has 38% demand destruction baked into it, so definitely it will be interesting to watch the next VB. I think your idea of a 2 Year inventory also seems to be plausible because essentially EAD / AP are valid for 2 years. Now since they have officially stated demand destruction they have probably got lesser than what they expected for sure but how much or how many less we will know by the inventory there seems to be truth on both sides. I still believe as Q said this bulletin is about the sentiment around HR 3012 in some way, they are trying to have sufficient numbers just in case. The point at 01-JAN-2009 corresponds to ~ 40 - 45K.

[codesmith]

My son's passport is sent to Indian consulate for extension (he's india born).
Can I take doctor's appointment without having his passport. I do have photocopy of his passport.

[grnwtg]

Congrats to all of those who are current. This is amazing, and past few months i was definetly expecting bulletin to go past april'08, but 2009 is good for many who could not visit India on H1B. Hopefully many of us should get their GC by End of August'2012.
Hopefully QBlogFan will sort out his issues and get his Green card( he too strongly predicted dates to go beyond April'2008 with buffer factor)
I guess factors what i have been talking previously here might be really True.



Congratulations to everybody who got current. Thanks kanmani, mesan and others for the specific shoutout. sf33, congrats on your impending move. Bhagvan jab deta hai ... (translation for kanmani and qbf and other non Hindi speakers: "When God gives, he tears open the roof of your hut and gives")

Clearly demand destruction has been greater than anticipated (as many of us had thought but couldn't find data to prove), and it appears that the dates could well move further in the next bulletin but let me reiterate that this is all merely transitional. There will be retrogression and many if not most of us that benefited from this move will only receive our EADs and not our GCs until the next FY. The VB says "this action was intended to generate significant levels of new filings for adjustment of status at U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) offices." & "While this action greatly increases the potential for an eventual retrogression of the cut-off at some point during the year,".

And that is why I will continue to support HR3012 (after I take a week or two to get my application in order). I hope this move doesn't suck up all the energy we've had in the recent past. It will be interesting to see if the petition continues to garner support as it has done int he last few days: http://www.petition2congress.com/5686/please-vote-yes-on-fairness-high-skilled-immigrants-act/

[PlainSpeak]

Plainspeak

I have a strong belief that HR3012 will make it as soon as possible.

And i have a strong belief that my portfolio will increase by 200% by this december end
Belief and actual facts are 2 different distinct animals which cannot be mistaken for each other

[ChampU]

Many congrats to all fellow GCSeekers who are current..

[imdeng]

Teddy has always been the voice of reason - he stayed conservative and data driven last summer even when everyone was predicting movement beyond 07/07. He eventually was proved right. Now, we are in fuzzy subjective decision making territory and Teddy/Gurus can only provide us with the relevant data points and potential interpretations - what CO will do with data available to him is anybody's guess.

I think Teddy has the right mindset. I would rather be conservative like him. Don't take COs words so literally. There is some demand destruction. But i wouldn't fool myself into thinking that the movement upto Jan 09 is all due to demand destruction. Personally I believe CO is making an excuse to take a large intake.

[suninphx]

Outside of CO moving dates forward just to create future Demand, it is also worth looking at how many people might actually get approved in FY2012 based on increased Demand Destruction.

The following table shows the effect for different Demand Destruction rates and different levels of SOFAD. All dates assume 3k Porting, 70% EB2, 20% Denial rate etc.

------------------ % Destruction (PD2007/PD2008) --------------------
SOFAD -- 15%/10% ---- 25%/20% ---- 35%/30% ---- 45%/40% ---- 55%/50%

25k --- 08-Dec-07 -- 01-Jan-08 -- 22-Jan-08 -- 22-Feb-08 -- 15-Apr-08

30k --- 08-Feb-08 -- 01-Mar-08 -- 08-Apr-08 -- 22-May-08 -- 08-Aug-08

35k --- 08-Apr-08 -- 08-May-08 -- 22-Jun-08 -- 08-Sep-08 -- 15-Dec-08

I hope you find it useful, at least in a qualitative way.

Spec,

I just envy your ability with numbers. As always thank you very much! This table helps to bring things in perspective.

[immitime]

And i have a strong belief that my portfolio will increase by 200% by this december end
Belief and actual facts are 2 different distinct animals which cannot be mistaken for each other

I share your pain. but the torture is too much for EB-3 India. if HR 3012 is not Law, what should be the solution, that is what EB-3 should think now. Other wise a guy who landed yesterday will have his Green Card and still EB-3 India from Aug 2002 waiting for the PD. Just wait for the outcome of HR 3012 at this point.

[PlainSpeak]

I share your pain. but the torture is too much for EB-3 India. if HR 3012 is not Law, what should be the solution, that is what EB-3 should think now. Other wise a guy who landed yesterday will have his Green Card and still EB-3 India from Aug 2002 waiting for the PD. Just wait for the outcome of HR 3012 at this point.
I hope you see the writing on the wall for 3012 based on grassleys hold and all the spotlight on 3012 and confirm the outcome of 3012 now instead of dragging it oiut painfully for a month. The result will be the same.

[romanitaly]

I think you should be fine with a photo copy or any other form of ID that you may have for your Son for the Doc appt. You will need the updated passport to apply for 485 though.

My son's passport is sent to Indian consulate for extension (he's india born).
Can I take doctor's appointment without having his passport. I do have photocopy of his passport.

[grnwtg]

This is great stuff Spec, hopefully demand destruction is little higher :)


Outside of CO moving dates forward just to create future Demand, it is also worth looking at how many people might actually get approved in FY2012 based on increased Demand Destruction.

The following table shows the effect for different Demand Destruction rates and different levels of SOFAD. All dates assume 3k Porting, 70% EB2, 20% Denial rate etc.

------------------ % Destruction (PD2007/PD2008) --------------------
SOFAD -- 15%/10% ---- 25%/20% ---- 35%/30% ---- 45%/40% ---- 55%/50%

25k --- 08-Dec-07 -- 01-Jan-08 -- 22-Jan-08 -- 22-Feb-08 -- 15-Apr-08

30k --- 08-Feb-08 -- 01-Mar-08 -- 08-Apr-08 -- 22-May-08 -- 08-Aug-08

35k --- 08-Apr-08 -- 08-May-08 -- 22-Jun-08 -- 08-Sep-08 -- 15-Dec-08

I hope you find it useful, at least in a qualitative way.

[immitime]

I hope you see the writing on the wall for 3012 based on grassleys hold and all the spotlight on 3012 and confirm the outcome of 3012 now instead of dragging it oiut painfully for a month. The result will be the same.

I understand that there are people against HR 3012, because this bill have bi partisan support, both the parties (Republicans and Democrats) won't leave it easily, Both want to show something to people during this election (with little salt and pepper!) There are lot of backdoor negoatiations happening. Sen.Grassley is a nay sayer and a "Holder" of the bills in the senate, so we can expect a positive outcome within 3 to 4 weeks at least and 3012 becomes law this year itself. This is the only "HOPE" EB-3 India have now. No one in the world can say that it will become Law. but chances are not dim!

[srd4gc]

Congrats to everyone who got current!!!!

[codesmith]

I think you should be fine with a photo copy or any other form of ID that you may have for your Son for the Doc appt. You will need the updated passport to apply for 485 though.


Thanks for reply..Very basic doubt.. just want to confirm.
I can file for 485 between 01 Jan 2012 to 31 Jan 2012 .
Is it correct ?

[TeddyKoochu]

I think Teddy has the right mindset. I would rather be conservative like him. Don't take COs words so literally. There is some demand destruction. But i wouldn't fool myself into thinking that the movement upto Jan 09 is all due to demand destruction. Personally I believe CO is making an excuse to take a large intake.


Teddy has always been the voice of reason - he stayed conservative and data driven last summer even when everyone was predicting movement beyond 07/07. He eventually was proved right. Now, we are in fuzzy subjective decision making territory and Teddy/Gurus can only provide us with the relevant data points and potential interpretations - what CO will do with data available to him is anybody's guess.

Guys, thanks for your kind words and support, I have always tried to be reasonable based on numbers. Today’s bulletin is great news for every one of us especially for those who became current it’s a great feeling. The movement though is definitely in the territory of discretion even though there may have been more destruction than thought off or HR 3012 looks like CO has made his call based on his own discretion and judgment. Only the new inventory can bring us true insight in reality. With discretion reigning supreme as of now nothing can be said of what may happen next month, good luck to everyone. Let’s wait and watch and hope for the best now for everyone who is on the cusp of being current.

[imdeng]

Spec - the 2007 DD is only for applicants after 07/07 right? People before 07/07 will have the benefit of EAD - so their DD should be lower.

I think the term Demand Destruction is misleading since it only points to people leaving US and going home (India/China). While that has surely happened, that can not explain the extent of reduction in 485 demand compared to PERM filings that is being implied in the VB. Other significant factors are people changing jobs and filing new PERMs and spouses working with their own PERM filings. All of this results in lower PERM to 485 ratio - maybe just call it PERM Conversion Ratio or something (suggestions?). Our accepted wisdom has been a PERM Conversion Ratio of 1.0 - I wonder how much we need to adjust it lower.

Outside of CO moving dates forward just to create future Demand, it is also worth looking at how many people might actually get approved in FY2012 based on increased Demand Destruction.

The following table shows the effect for different Demand Destruction rates and different levels of SOFAD. All dates assume 3k Porting, 70% EB2, 20% Denial rate etc.

[FONT="Courier New"]------------------ % Destruction (PD2007/PD2008) --------------------
SOFAD -- 15%/10% ---- 25%/20% ---- 35%/30% ---- 45%/40% ---- 55%/50%

[imdeng]

You can file on or after Jan 01, 2012. You can file after Jan 31st as well if the dates do not retrogress beyond your PD. In Jan 1st week the next VB will be out and you will know whether Jan 31st is your deadline or whether you can go into Feb for filing. Although, given the fluid situation - just get in as soon as possible.

Thanks for reply..Very basic doubt.. just want to confirm.
I can file for 485 between 01 Jan 2012 to 31 Jan 2012 .
Is it correct ?

[PlainSpeak]

I understand that there are people against HR 3012, because this bill have bi partisan support, both the parties (Republicans and Democrats) won't leave it easily, Both want to show something to people during this election (with little salt and pepper!) There are lot of backdoor negoatiations happening. Sen.Grassley is a nay sayer and a "Holder" of the bills in the senate, so we can expect a positive outcome within 3 to 4 weeks at least and 3012 becomes law this year itself. This is the only "HOPE" EB-3 India have now. No one in the world can say that it will become Law. but chances are not dim!
Backdoor negotiations yeah right !!! (Wink !!!!!). Proof is in the pudding and will wait til teh oudding is in hand before believing it.
Just to let you know that your post has not generated even 0.00000001 % hopoe in me or other EB3 indians....
Appreciate the effort though ...

[qesehmk]

I agree w you.

The sudden jump could be result of demand destruction or HR3012 or both. Honestly I just don't have visibility what is more true.

The next 485 inventory will tell us what is what. My gut feel is that this is a combination of both plus a third factor that building pipeline only for one year never made any sense to me. I would at least have 18 months of pipeline. So its possible that that's what he is doing.

For all the talk about demand destruction - i would be really surprised if people who had to abandon their GC process AFTER labor approval are 20% or more relative to GC.

My question on this theory is then why did he first move to 15th March 2008, and why he made a sudden jump to 1st Jan 2009? Why not move in increments of 4 to 5 months just to gauge the demand in those intervals as he seemed to be doing initially?

HR 3012 is definitely at play here I think. They could simply stick to their 4-5 month movement formula, and send out green cards in QSP...no retrogression and a much cleaner approach.

I think some more DD happened, but the CO has definitely paid attention to HR 3012. I don't see anything happening to HR 3012 in December, so I believe February bulletin will show another movement - it could be the final movement, or if DD continues to be higher, one more in March. I stick to my theory that the *worst* outcome of this movement is that the DOS retrogresses and uses the entire FY 2013 to give green cards without risking 2 year EAD renewals. I look at the maximum demand intake from the perspective of that 2 year window. Correct me if I am wrong.

[geevikram]

Guys,
Any idea where it might retrogress to? I cannot apply this month (7/08 PD) as I plan to get married next summer, around May to Jun timeframe. Do you guys anticpate retrogression to be really bad?

-Vik

[qesehmk]

Teddy - even I envy your ability to source and analyze information in very balanced manner & Spec's ability to crunch numbers and analyze legal jargon and then convey it in a simple manner! Glad to see folks getting current. Even getting EAD will be a big relief.

I just wish he had made the entire category current and then retro'd.


Guys, thanks for your kind words and support, I have always tried to be reasonable based on numbers.

[imdeng]

I think it was discussed some time back that making the category current is a bad idea since that will generate a lot of concurrent filings from EB2IC folks. It is more manageable for DoS/USCIS to move the PD to near-current but not actually current.

I can not believe that I have a shot (even though a slim one) to be current in next two VBs (Aug-09 PD). I hope CO continues in his mad ways for a few more months.

I just wish he had made the entire category current and then retro'd.

[Spectator]

Spec - the 2007 DD is only for applicants after 07/07 right? People before 07/07 will have the benefit of EAD - so their DD should be lower.imdeng,

That's correct. Demand Destruction for PD2007 only takes into account those who could not have filed in 2007.

[Pdmar08]

Mesan, most big law firms file in the third or 4th week. It goes thru various layers of para legals, attorney reviews and HR back forth. An example is fragomen that has done so with many of my friends. They are not bad but just huge.

You are right, i have not filed yet, my lawyers are still waking up and my company cuts checks so i have no control. I m done long back with meds etc.

I think folks who work directly with lawyers have a greater chance of filing on first day.

SOmeone had mentione before correctly that meds and all is ok lawyers take time.

Congrats to all who are current.

It will be interesting to see how demand data chart changes in the necxt few bulletins.

This is going in the same direction of 2007 though not exactly. I have seen that time been referred to fiasco but many people especialluy EB3 got to file and got EAD that reduced some pain.

[Jonty Rhodes]

EB2I still needs HR 3012. With this kind of large movements in EB2 India and China, retrogression is inevitable and looming over. Yes, larger demand destruction seems to have influenced this huge movement to some extent. But I am certain that the dates will retrogress and will be stalled for sometime (at least for the rest of the FY2012). So, EB2I should not get too high and start flying because this movement is transitional and not permanent.

Anybody who files in EB2I today will still have a wait time of at least 4 years and that has been pretty consistent. Moreover, EB2I is completely spill-over dependent so in future, if the demand destruction is less and if the spill-over is low from EB1, EB4, EB5 and EB2ROW then basically EB2I backlog is going to grow for sure.

This bill still needs lot of support from EB2 and EB3 India and China.

[qesehmk]

Think this way imdeng - in a year USCIS processes millions of 485s or equivalent forms.
EB is just 140K of that. By making things current they will build solid visibility to future demand.

However, the problem is not their ability to process, the problem is political resistance to making it current. Some senators think that giving an EAD is same as giving a GC. Which is kind of true. But then today the whole 485 has lost its purpose. Theoretically 485 filing is only to adjust the status of an already eligible person proven beyond doubt. Making that person wait juts because a visa number is not available is stupid. It goes contrary to the economic sense behind it.

in fact when the 140 has already proved the economic benefit behind a GC application, the concept of a "VISA NUMBER" itself doesn't make sense.

Would you agree?



I think it was discussed some time back that making the category current is a bad idea since that will generate a lot of concurrent filings from EB2IC folks. It is more manageable for DoS/USCIS to move the PD to near-current but not actually current.

I can not believe that I have a shot (even though a slim one) to be current in next two VBs (Aug-09 PD). I hope CO continues in his mad ways for a few more months.

[immitime]

My question on this theory is then why did he first move to 15th March 2008, and why he made a sudden jump to 1st Jan 2009? Why not move in increments of 4 to 5 months just to gauge the demand in those intervals as he seemed to be doing initially?

HR 3012 is definitely at play here I think. They could simply stick to their 4-5 month movement formula, and send out green cards in QSP...no retrogression and a much cleaner approach.

I think some more DD happened, but the CO has definitely paid attention to HR 3012. I don't see anything happening to HR 3012 in December, so I believe February bulletin will show another movement - it could be the final movement, or if DD continues to be higher, one more in March. I stick to my theory that the *worst* outcome of this movement is that the DOS retrogresses and uses the entire FY 2013 to give green cards without risking 2 year EAD renewals. I look at the maximum demand intake from the perspective of that 2 year window. Correct me if I am wrong.

Sports, First of all congrats to you and family

If HR 3012 played here in advancing dates on EB-2, why can't CO do at least half of the dates in EB-3 India. I understand most of the EB-3 India applied 485, but if they are so sure that HR 3012 become Law, why not EB-3 India? just a thought.

So I strongly feel EB-2 have lesser demand and so they increased the date is it not?;)

See the standard explanation after the VB below.

D. CHINA-MAINLAND BORN AND INDIA EMPLOYMENT-BASED SECOND PREFERENCE VISA AVAILABILITY IN THE COMING MONTHS

The China and India Employment Second preference cut-off date has been advanced at a rapid rate in recent months. As previously noted, this action was intended to generate significant levels of new filings for adjustment of status at U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) offices. USCIS has reported that the rate of new filings is currently far below that which they had anticipated, prompting an even more aggressive movement of the cut-off date for January and possibly beyond. While this action greatly increases the potential for an eventual retrogression of the cut-off at some point during the year, it also provides the best opportunity to utilize all numbers available under the annual limit.

[imdeng]

I agree whole-heartedly Q. I believe any rational person will agree that an approved 140 should automatically result in a 485 filing and EAD. The artificial wait has no economic rationale.

There was some argument about why it makes sense for DoS/USCIS to make PD almost-current vs. making is current. Anyways - its doesn't matter. We have had good movements past few months - hopefully it continues forward full speed and hopefully HR-3012 happens and makes the plight of EB2IC/EB3IC more manageable.


Think this way imdeng - in a year USCIS processes millions of 485s or equivalent forms.
EB is just 140K of that. By making things current they will build solid visibility to future demand.

However, the problem is not their ability to process, the problem is political resistance to making it current. Some senators think that giving an EAD is same as giving a GC. Which is kind of true. But then today the whole 485 has lost its purpose. Theoretically 485 filing is only to adjust the status of an already eligible person proven beyond doubt. Making that person wait juts because a visa number is not available is stupid. It goes contrary to the economic sense behind it.

in fact when the 140 has already proved the economic benefit behind a GC application, the concept of a "VISA NUMBER" itself doesn't make sense.

Would you agree?

[imdeng]

The current movement in EB2IC is for gathering inventory only - they are not being allotted visa numbers right now. EB3IC already has a large inventory thanks to 07/07 - so the situation does not apply there. EB3I PD will not move beyond the 1 week/month speed until HR-3012 actually becomes a law. However, once that happens, EB3I is going to fly.

If HR 3012 played here in advancing dates on EB-2, why can't CO do at least half of the dates in EB-3 India. I understand most of the EB-3 India applied 485, but if they are so sure that HR 3012 become Law, why not EB-3 India? just a thought.

[tometukuri]

Great News folks! Congrats to all who are current with this bulletin. I guess time to run around to get all the necessary documentation ready. I have a strong feeling the dates might retrogress in the next bulletin given this large intake.

Maybe its a timing co-incidence, but things started working out in the last 4-5 months since we started following Q's forum. Isn't it time Q started forums on various other aspects of life :)

[Momster]

OMG..I couldn't believe the movement when I saw the VB this morning. CO covered the rest of 2008 in one fell sweep! Congratulations to everyone who became current! This GC thing is so hard on families sometimes..I hope this brings relief to at least more than a few people.

Thanks to all the Gurus and number crunchers...you continue to bring tremendous clarity to the whole process and yes, I envy your way with numbers too (It would have really helped at my previous job).

Sportsfan, good luck to you on your move to India - it is very admirable how you are doing this for your family!

[tometukuri]

Rightly said, H.R. 3012 is the solution to EB-3. Campaign as much as possible and have folks reach out to local senators to show our strength. imdeng has a pre-done letter that can be modified/used. It just took me a minute to send out the letters.


This is why we need to continue campaigning for H.R. 3012 at full steam.

[tometukuri]

Yep, all we needed at the doctor was a photocopy of the passport


My son's passport is sent to Indian consulate for extension (he's india born).
Can I take doctor's appointment without having his passport. I do have photocopy of his passport.

[tometukuri]

I am not sure how it works, but can't you apply for your I-485 now and travel with AP and apply for your spouse at some point


Guys,
Any idea where it might retrogress to? I cannot apply this month (7/08 PD) as I plan to get married next summer, around May to Jun timeframe. Do you guys anticpate retrogression to be really bad?

-Vik

[codesmith]

Can you please point me to location thread
for all the steps/docs required for 485 filling ?
Thanks

[imdeng]

You would want to be married when you file 485 so that you can file for your wife as a dependent as well. Once GC is issued to you, GC for wife will fall under FB, which is a whole lot of mess you don't want to get into.

I am not sure how it works, but can't you apply for your I-485 now and travel with AP and apply for your spouse at some point

[aary09]

No matter what the movement is, thanks to Q, Teddy, Nishant, Veni, Spec, Kanmani & crew for your inputs & analysis on the subject.

[scion78]

Hi Guys, Firstly Congrats everyone who got current. I was super happy to see the news this morning that I am current. My PD is Nov 2008. I had a question for the Guru's. I am planning to travel to India from Dec 29th - Jan 29th 2012. Does this movement mean that I have to effectively cancel my trip all together? Or is there a way I can file and then leave or try to salvage some portion of my planned trip?

Thanks,

[raj888]

My Priority date is Oct 2008. However, I just changed jobs couple of months back and still in the process of reapplying perm :-((

I am happy for all the rest of the folks here who are current. Good luck.

[PD2008AUG25]

When date suddenly jumps some ungrateful folks forget how much time and effort these brilliant people have put in to help others.

And CO can move PD as per his wish, but he can't issue more visas. I think Gurus will still be on the spot when it comes to get actual GC in hand.


No matter what the movement is, thanks to Q, Teddy, Nishant, Veni, Spec, Kanmani & crew for your inputs & analysis on the subject.

[ontheedge]

Great News folks! Congrats to all who are current with this bulletin. I guess time to run around to get all the necessary documentation ready. I have a strong feeling the dates might retrogress in the next bulletin given this large intake.

Maybe its a timing co-incidence, but things started working out in the last 4-5 months since we started following Q's forum. Isn't it time Q started forums on various other aspects of life :)


Haha haha...thats a good observation! How about we start researching and predicting lottery drawings? ;)

[self.coach]

Congrats to all those who are current. I think its about time I change my signature. Hope HR 3012 goes through so our EB3IC friends get justice.

[Sirisha]

Hi All,

I am a silent follower of this forum, I visit this forum at least once a day since 4 months.....
I became current today my PD is 07/14/2008.
This thread helped me a lot... for gathering the information of how the whole GC procedure is and this forum is very good at predictions.
I've not been to India since 5 years as I am on H1..
So I guess within 6 months, I may get my EAD and Advance payrole by which I can travel to India... oo ohhhooooo

I would like to Thank each and every contributor of this forum. You are doing a Great job

I wish GudLuck to Everyone.....

[Jonty Rhodes]

When date suddenly jumps some ungrateful folks forget how much time and effort these brilliant people have put in to help others.

And CO can move PD as per his wish, but he can't issue more visas. I think Gurus will still be on the spot when it comes getting GC in hand.

That is so true. So far all Gurus have been pretty much up to the mark in making calculated predictions. We are now in the zone of an unknown demand where CO is making huge movements with whatever data he has on his hand to generate demand. It does not mean everyone till December 31st, 2008 will get GCs. Gurus don't have a crystal ball and whatever data they have is limited. No one including Mr. CO himself, accurately knows what the demand destruction is, what is the exact percentage of porting, what is the exact level of duplicate PERM filings. Obviously there will be some predictions which will go wrong when it comes to visa bulletin movements. But as far as getting the GC in hand is concerned, predictions of Gurus are hitting bullseye more than 90 percent of time. Moreover, this is a blog to bring clarity to GC process. This is not a game or a competition for making predictions. I hope those ungrateful folks who are bashing Q, Spec, Veni, Teddy, Nishant etc. can understand this. Keep up the good work folks. I want you to know that your work is highly appreciated.

[mrhyderabad]

Any prediction of March 6th 2009 EB-I becoming current in the coming VB?

[enigma]

All,

Long time follower and first-time poster here. First of all thank you to Q for creating this forum and to all the other gurus and contributors. Visiting this forum and following all the predictions and calculations has become a daily ritual for me ever since I stumbled upon it a few months ago.


I am in EB2-I and my PD is April 6, 2009. With this huge surge in EB2-IC movement for the January bulletin, I am now only 3 months away and cautiously optimistic about my chances in the next couple of months. I have a question regarding my immigration situation and am hoping to get some insight from members who have either been through or heard of similar experience. My wife changed her status from H4 to F1 a few months ago and started on her Masters in this fall semester. I have heard and read in a lot of forums that F1 is a "non-immigrant intent" visa. I am worried that, when the time comes for us to file for 485 (hopefully soon), our application might run into rough weather since my wife is on F1 and not H4. Can someone throw some light on this and suggest the best course of action for our situation?

Thank you.

[sreddy]

I totally agree with you. Gurus like Teddy, Spec are not in line like many of us. They still spend time doing analysis for us, and kept our expectations realistic. I started looking at this thread about 8 months ago, since then i almost never missed a day without browsing this thread. Big thanks to gurus, and all those who conributing to this thread. I can say this thread has the best possible collective information online for EB2IC folks.

No matter what the movement is, thanks to Q, Teddy, Nishant, Veni, Spec, Kanmani & crew for your inputs & analysis on the subject.

[Pdmar08]

That is so true. So far all Gurus have been pretty much up to the mark in making calculated predictions. We are now in the zone of an unknown demand where CO is making huge movements with whatever data he has on his hand to generate demand. It does not mean everyone till December 31st, 2008 will get GCs. Gurus don't have a crystal ball and whatever data they have is limited. No one including Mr. CO himself, accurately knows what the demand destruction is, what is the exact percentage of porting, what is the exact level of duplicate PERM filings. Obviously there will be some predictions which will go wrong when it comes to visa bulletin movements. But as far as getting the GC in hand is concerned, predictions of Gurus are hitting bullseye more than 90 percent of time. Moreover, this is a blog to bring clarity to GC process. This is not a game or a competition for making predictions. I hope those ungrateful folks who are bashing Q, Spec, Veni, Teddy, Nishant etc. can understand this. Keep up the good work folks. I want you to know that your work is highly appreciated.

i think this forum is an excellen example of, if you would like to believe, best wishes, or goodluck or positive vibe or anything you may want to call rubbed on to each other. think of the last 2-3 months, the number of people getting current only increased.

I would suggest those who are current to make sure and file, no need to panic but file for sure.

[imdeng]

If CO sticks to his "and beyond" comment in the VB, you should be current in the next month. However, nobody knows CO's thought process so I would say a 50-50 chance. Maybe a little better than that.


Any prediction of March 6th 2009 EB-I becoming current in the coming VB?

[qesehmk]

my wife was on f1 when we filed our 485.
All,

Long time follower and first-time poster here. First of all thank you to Q for creating this forum and to all the other gurus and contributors. Visiting this forum and following all the predictions and calculations has become a daily ritual for me ever since I stumbled upon it a few months ago.


I am in EB2-I and my PD is April 6, 2009. With this huge surge in EB2-IC movement for the January bulletin, I am now only 3 months away and cautiously optimistic about my chances in the next couple of months. I have a question regarding my immigration situation and am hoping to get some insight from members who have either been through or heard of similar experience. My wife changed her status from H4 to F1 a few months ago and started on her Masters in this fall semester. I have heard and read in a lot of forums that F1 is a "non-immigrant intent" visa. I am worried that, when the time comes for us to file for 485 (hopefully soon), our application might run into rough weather since my wife is on F1 and not H4. Can someone throw some light on this and suggest the best course of action for our situation?

Thank you.

[narendarrao]

Congrats to everyone.
I am little worried with this movement. With the help of guru's here, we have an insight into PERM data on yearly basis. The total demand data so far might take the whole year GC's.

For a senator( who may not look into the details of pending applications or demand data), I hope this movement(Jan 2009) doesn't give a wrong impression that EB-2 Indian only has to wait for 2.5 years to get GC. :)

[natvyas]

The CO has been true to his word that he gave on 26th October. He said dates would move to atleast 1 MAr 08 and the COD moved to 15th Mar.....he had mentioned that there will be movement in Jan and Feb bulletin and that has also come true as far as Jan VB is concerned....

In the VB he says there isnt enough demand....maybe he is saying the truth....

i personally dont buy the theory that he is moving the dates under some influence of HR3012. I think he knows better.....

to build a pipeline....yes that's a good enough reason....and he has been open about it.....

i think we are guilty of trying to second guess him everytime he says something......

[natvyas]

By the way....the demand data has still not been published this month.....isnt it STRANGE that VB came out before the demand data....

[ragx08]

The news is yet to sink in! Feeling numb (no emotions) as of now!!!

After reading some posts regarding "out of status" couple of months back, found out my wife could have an issue (while changing her status from H1B to H4 back in 2009). After consulting attorney and gathering proper information, decide the best option to preempt any issues with AOS is for her to travel out and return back. For this, she is traveling to India (made all the arrangements just two days back), get her H4 stamp and return back on 30th Dec.

BANG came the news with today's VB - I'm current (July 9th). As soon as we got the news - pulled out the Doc list online and started calling - Wife managed to get her medical appointment straight away (done!) and she needs to check back with the doc's office after 48hrs on Sunday @9.30am. She is flying out at 12.30 the same day!!!! She also fixed my appointment for Monday.

Hoping her trip to India and H4 stamping at Chennia on 15th Dec would be a smooth sail!

She is planning to take up a job on H1B as soon as she returns back (have the offer in hand). Will there be any complications for her to convert to H1B soon after applying for I-485 (complications in the context of I-485)? I don't think neither she nor her employer would want to wait until she gets her EAD!!!

I was looking for this day since a long time!!! But funny - nothing seems to have changed in my life with this news!!!!! Been in US since 1997 (had to go back to India for a couple of years in between).... First 6 yrs - never wanted to apply for GC - infact one of my employers force me into applying Labor back in 2000 and got it approved - I did not follow it up to file I-140.... Looking back - I feel I was very foolish to think everything would be the same!!!!

Things seem to be falling in place on their own at the right time. Thanks to you all guys on this forum - especially the fab4 (Q/V/S/T) for everything.

[natvyas]

The CO has been true to his word that he gave on 26th October. He said dates would move to atleast 1 MAr 08 and the COD moved to 15th Mar.....he had mentioned that there will be movement in Jan and Feb bulletin and that has also come true as far as Jan VB is concerned....

In the VB he says there isnt enough demand....maybe he is saying the truth....

i personally dont buy the theory that he is moving the dates under some influence of HR3012. I think he knows better.....

to build a pipeline....yes that's a good enough reason....and he has been open about it.....

i think we are guilty of trying to second guess him everytime he says something......


by the way I'm current PD 24 Mar 08....yahooooooooooooooooooooooo

[yesman]

Congrats to everyone that became current today! Here I was wondering if CO will move the dates by 1 month (my PD is Apr 3 2008) and he moves it by 10! Thanks a lot to everyone who is a part of this forum for creating and participating, to analyze and discuss this immigration process which is so murky and complicated.

[chagas]

@ragx08 ---- H1B cap reached on november 22nd for FY 2012.....not sure how your spouse can change the status from H4 to H1 before the next fiscal year quota kiks in (April 2012)

[iamsam]

Hello polapragada
Can you check your PM please. I need your help urgently.
Thanks


I believe I can give info to some extend..I wnt to through a partial path of the situation

1. Company C - Should file a I-140 as successor in interest for the I-140 of Company A. As long as it is a official merger (no matter full assets or partial assets)

2. No need to file new labor. Unless Company C. Don't want to offer same position with specified salary in future.

3. If the I-140 approved more than 6 months ago .. Yes that PD can be re captured Company C or any new Company X

4. Remember if merger A+B or B+C is not proper or official you cannot file I-140 as successor in interest. May need to go thru Labor process again but should be able to retain PD

5. Last but least...go and slap Company B owners with full forcess:D

[ragx08]

@ragx08 ---- H1B cap reached on november 22nd for FY 2012.....not sure how your spouse can change the status from H4 to H1 before the next fiscal year quota kiks in (April 2012)

She was on H1B before - I guess that makes a difference.

[natvyas]

@ragx08 ---- H1B cap reached on november 22nd for FY 2012.....not sure how your spouse can change the status from H4 to H1 before the next fiscal year quota kiks in (April 2012)

if one works for a non-profit organization then he/she can apply for H1 anytime of the year and subsequently start working anytime of the year....there isnt a cap on H1B for non-profit organizations..

[ragx08]

if one works for a non-profit organization then he/she can apply for H1 anytime of the year and subsequently start working anytime of the year....there isnt a cap on H1B for non-profit organizations..

I did not know that - Since the last 2+years, she was actually working for a non-profit organization (taking care of their SQL needs - dev/maintenance) for free. It is more of a voluntary service - so I guess no work permit needed.

[chagas]

She was on H1B before - I guess that makes a difference.

Ok. So basically it is from H1 - H4 - H1 (after H1 stamping) . I am still unsure if she can change the status unless it's a non-profir orog. as natvyas pointed out. Either way best of luck !!!

[mrhyderabad]

If CO sticks to his "and beyond" comment in the VB, you should be current in the next month. However, nobody knows CO's thought process so I would say a 50-50 chance. Maybe a little better than that.

Thank you very. I hope you are right about CO sticking to his comment for coming bulletins. It is been more than 5 years that I travelled to India.

[ragx08]

Ok. So basically it is from H1 - H4 - H1 (after H1 stamping) . I am still unsure if she can change the status unless it's a non-profir orog. as natvyas pointed out. Either way best of luck !!!
Frankly - I'll be happy if she does not take up this job - as it requires her to move to a different state! In any case I'm not very concerned abt that. If it works out - good! If not - better!!! :-)

[natvyas]

Frankly - I'll be happy if she does not take up this job - as it requires her to move to a different state! In any case I'm not very concerned abt that. If it works out - good! If not - better!!! :-)

I hope ur wifey isnt reading this post of yours....nahi to aaj dinner nahi milega

[ramchand]

@ragx08: Can you please check your pm when possible? I probably have a similar situation as your wife and would appreciate some details :)

[enigma]

Thanks, Q. It's comforting to know that others have been through the 485 stage on F1. Would you suggest changing my wife's status from F1 to H4, after applying for 485 and getting the EAD cards? (since she would be able to continue her on-campus work without the need for F1 at that point). I am assuming here that if the dates do move past my PD they will eventually retrogress and I would be stuck at the EAD stage for the next year or so.

PS - Please let me know if I should move this conversation to a different thread and I will be happy to do so.


my wife was on f1 when we filed our 485.

[ragx08]

I hope ur wifey isnt reading this post of yours....nahi to aaj dinner nahi milega
No problem - can live on 'liquid" diet, if needed!!!! Anyways, today's news calls for some celebrations after all!!!

[ragx08]

@ragx08: Can you please check your pm when possible? I probably have a similar situation as your wife and would appreciate some details :)

Ramchand, check you pm for the reply.

[mr53123]

Regd filing 485 - J1 Dependent
Hi All ,
Congrats to all those who are current. I am Dec 2008, so I am current as well.

However, I have a small problem. My spouse is currently on H4. She was on a J1 Visa way back in 2004, and on her IAP 66, it is written that she is subject to the 2 year HRR. It was a self funded 1 month trip.

She served 18 months before coming back on F1, and if you include vacations, thats another two months.
So in all she has served 20/24 months. She is 4 months short. If we apply for 485 without a waiver will she be rejected?
Is it better to just wait until we get the waiver and apply? I just started the waiver process, so thats another 8-9 months I suppose.
Thanks a lot.

[qesehmk]

i am quite sure that my wife had a dual status F1/AOS which then changed to H4/AOS.

Regarding privacy - if you want to keep it private pls feel free to pm me. Otherwise i am fine discussing here.


Thanks, Q. It's comforting to know that others have been through the 485 stage on F1. Would you suggest changing my wife's status from F1 to H4, after applying for 485 and getting the EAD cards? (since she would be able to continue her on-campus work without the need for F1 at that point). I am assuming here that if the dates do move past my PD they will eventually retrogress and I would be stuck at the EAD stage for the next year or so.

PS - Please let me know if I should move this conversation to a different thread and I will be happy to do so.

[enigma]

Thanks again for your prompt response Q. As for privacy/PMs, I will keep that in mind if I have any additional specific questions on this matter.


i am quite sure that my wife had a dual status F1/AOS which then changed to H4/AOS.

Regarding privacy - if you want to keep it private pls feel free to pm me. Otherwise i am fine discussing here.

[ontheedge]

She was on H1B before - I guess that makes a difference.

yes, if she was on H1B before and did not exhaust her 6 years..her application wont be counted against the cap.

[makmohan]

Friends,

Cannot believe I am current in this VB! Congrats to everyone who is current. I also want to thank everyone esp. Q for setting up this blog. It has been a strong support to help me stay on track.

A very basic question to have a good understanding of timelines:
Am I correct when I say:
- We get remaining december to work and prepare all the documented?
- We start filing from Jan-2012 and all 485 docs must reach USCIS before last working day of Jan?

Thanks,
M

[imdeng]

Yup. Correct on both. You may have more time than end of Jan if PD does not retrogress. However, of course, it is advisable to send your docs to reach as soon as possible in Jan 2012.


Am I correct when I say:
- We get remaining december to work and prepare all the documented?
- We start filing from Jan-2012 and all 485 docs must reach USCIS before last working day of Jan?

[soggadu]

CO did a CHAMAKKK CHALOOO again!!!!...Wow congratulations to everyone and i wish all of us get GC's soon...

[imdeng]

Prediction: We are going to see a flood of 2009 PD folks registering and starting to post here. Well - may be not - there aren't too many people with 2009 PD! Post-485 thread will probably blow up through the holiday season.

[imdeng]

** is slipping up. I replied to someone's question about 485 documentation asking them to check the post-485 thread in Q's Blog. It has been several hours and it has not yet been deleted.

PS> With this I reach 200 posts. Tendulkar got 200, Sehwag crossed 200 and I reach 200 today - same thing on level of achievement I think :-)

[kd2008]

Teddy, Q, Spec, others, please let me know what you think of this:

EB1 & EB2ROW has quite a bit of backlog from last year. EB1 & EB2ROW approvals are picking up. Since USCIS operates on FIFO wrt I-485 and goes by the filing date, EB1 and EB2ROW approvals are more likely in next few months. So it may happen that EB2IC demand takes a long time to show up and also the number of filings are low. So we may see quite a progression of dates but in the end see a small SOFAD and severe retrogression. HR 3012 could change that but lets just use the law that is in force now for our discussion.

This may be bittersweet or rather, sweetbitter!

I just hope that a lot of folks waiting to file I-485 get to do so soon!

[longgcque]

Q I sent you a PM. Please respond when you have a moment. Thanks


i am quite sure that my wife had a dual status F1/AOS which then changed to H4/AOS.

Regarding privacy - if you want to keep it private pls feel free to pm me. Otherwise i am fine discussing here.

[fedupwithgc]

Prediction: We are going to see a flood of 2009 PD folks registering and starting to post here. Well - may be not - there aren't too many people with 2009 PD! Post-485 thread will probably blow up through the holiday season.

DOL made a statement that most of the people who applied for PERM in 2008 already had approved PERM on file (EB3->EB2 porting) and that may be the case for low turnout of applications in Nov and significant movement in Jan..

Just my 2 Cents ....

[imdeng]

We don't know the extent of data sharing between USCIS and DOS. From the VB, it looks like USCIS has reported on "the rate of new filings" - this seems like the filings received figure and not filings processed or approved. If that is the case then the current movement is directly because of low demand in EB2IC and not because of the demand not showing up because of backlog in EB1/EB2ROW.


EB1 & EB2ROW has quite a bit of backlog from last year. EB1 & EB2ROW approvals are picking up. Since USCIS operates on FIFO wrt I-485 and goes by the filing date, EB1 and EB2ROW approvals are more likely in next few months. So it may happen that EB2IC demand takes a long time to show up and also the number of filings are low. So we may see quite a progression of dates but in the end see a small SOFAD and severe retrogression.

[imdeng]

I have not come across any statement from DoL in this regard. Could you point me towards a link for the same? This would surely explain the low PERM/485 ratio, if true.

DOL made a statement that most of the people who applied for PERM in 2008 already had approved PERM on file (EB3->EB2 porting) and that may be the case for low turnout of applications in Nov and significant movement in Jan..

Just my 2 Cents ....

[veni001]

That is so true. So far all Gurus have been pretty much up to the mark in making calculated predictions. We are now in the zone of an unknown demand where CO is making huge movements with whatever data he has on his hand to generate demand. It does not mean everyone till December 31st, 2008 will get GCs. Gurus don't have a crystal ball and whatever data they have is limited. No one including Mr. CO himself, accurately knows what the demand destruction is, what is the exact percentage of porting, what is the exact level of duplicate PERM filings. Obviously there will be some predictions which will go wrong when it comes to visa bulletin movements. But as far as getting the GC in hand is concerned, predictions of Gurus are hitting bullseye more than 90 percent of time. Moreover, this is a blog to bring clarity to GC process. This is not a game or a competition for making predictions. I hope those ungrateful folks who are bashing Q, Spec, Veni, Teddy, Nishant etc. can understand this. Keep up the good work folks. I want you to know that your work is highly appreciated.

Dr.Jonty,
Thank you

[dreamer]

I was just going through my Documents, just noticed something with my I-94
I got my I-94 till Feb 2013 on my old passport (valid till Feb 2011), Visa was valid till Sep 2011. This didn't made sense to me.
I have applied for New passport and got it in Dec 2010
I have renewed & got approval of my new H1 till Sept 2014 with new I94 attached along with I-797

My question is
1. Looks like immigration officer gave I94 till Feb 2013 instead Feb 2011 (Passport expiry), does it affect me in any way during my 485 process?
2. I am current as of Jan 2011, which I94 will play now?
3. What ever immigration officer puts in I94 is that final even if its date which doesn't makes sense?


I was just looking at it and thought of getting your input on this, your help/input is greatly appreciated

[geterdone]

congrats to all who r current!

if my wife is on f-1 and when we apply for ead, how does that work? are there any problems for f-1 applicants?

[enigma]

geterdone,

My situation is similar to yours. I posed a similar question in this thread earlier today and Q responded. You can search for my posts and should be able to find some info in this regard.




congrats to all who r current!

if my wife is on f-1 and when we apply for ead, how does that work? are there any problems for f-1 applicants?

[kd2008]

Teddy, Q, Spec, others, please let me know what you think of this:

EB1 & EB2ROW has quite a bit of backlog from last year. EB1 & EB2ROW approvals are picking up. Since USCIS operates on FIFO wrt I-485 and goes by the filing date, EB1 and EB2ROW approvals are more likely in next few months. So it may happen that EB2IC demand takes a long time to show up and also the number of filings are low. So we may see quite a progression of dates but in the end see a small SOFAD and severe retrogression. HR 3012 could change that but lets just use the law that is in force now for our discussion.

This may be bittersweet or rather, sweetbitter!

I just hope that a lot of folks waiting to file I-485 get to do so soon!

Any takers?

[codesmith]

Hi Q, Nistant, Teddy, Spec, Veni, Kanmani and others.
It's a great day.. I can't believe I'm current ... it was never expected.
I was great advocate of numbers and calculations that I learnt here from you guys and in my wildest dream also I could not have believed date moving 9+ months.
With limited transparency on the numbers and process- this forum has always provided so -so much, many "waiters" like me find this forum useful and it stands way apart from the others.
I once again like to thank you guys for the help you've been offering.

qesehmk.org zindabbad !! ( Long live qesehmk.org ) !!
Jai ho Q bhai ki :) :o

[la_2002_ch]

Dr.Jonty,
Thank you

I have been more of a silent visitor to this site with very few inputs. But I must say that all the GURUS (Q, Teddy, Spec, Veni) have been very helpful and very accurate in their estimates and predictions. As Dr. Jonty says, they dont have a crystal ball, but still they took the risk in this most un-predictable scenario (limited resources and Mr. CO's mood). Thanks to all of you. I started following Q's thread on the *** and then over here.

[Pundit Arjun]

Good luck to all who are current.

I agree with you KD. Just from my gut feel -imdeng, other late 2009ers and I will be able to file before Jan 2013.

[h1bguy]

http://www.cilawgroup.com/news/2011/12/09/january-2012-visa-bulletin-%e2%80%93-eb-2-india-and-china-advance-by-nine-and-a-half-months-slow-movement-in-eb-3-fb1-advances-again-moderate-movement-in-fb2a/

Even Capital immigration is predicting that there could be a significant forward movement in Feb .No wonder even If it moves until end of 2009 .


My pd is Apr 07 2009 .

[qesehmk]

KD i am not sure i understood your question correctly. Eb1 EB2ROW "ALWAYS" take precendence over EB2IC. So yes they will have to be processed before EB2IC gets any extra visas. As per COs rationale behind moving dates - it is clear that he doesn't have a consistent rationale. If we he were to look at his own demand data ... he had more than enough left at the end of sep 2011 from 7% quota perspective. So he didn't need to move the date by a single month. Now he has moved it even beyond any possible SOFAD this year. So clearly he is using his discretion in moving the dates. So i wouldn't try to find any "legal" rationale or basis to his actions. He has to give us some cool-aid in each VB and we are drinking it. As long as the party goes on lets enjoy and file 485. As he himself said - someday it will have to come to end. Makes sense?



Any takers?

[jss1234]

THANK YOU!!

First of all congratulations to everyone of you who is current today. I still can't believe that I am current. I am so happy.

Thank you to Q, Veni, Spec, Teddy and others for there hard work. Q this blog rocks!! This is the only blog that gives me hope.

Thank you so much!!

[Pdmar08]

Remember sombody had posted a link to some website that predicted when one would get current?
Did we delete that post? It was 3week of october that it had come up on this forum.
We all laughed at the strange dates it was predicting. But i was current even before that date. Today i think many others are too.
Anyone has that link?

[H1GC140]

Congrats to all who will be current next month.

[feedmyback]

Probably you are talking about this....

http://www.myprioritydate.com/


Remember sombody had posted a link to some website that predicted when one would get current?
Did we delete that post? It was 3week of october that it had come up on this forum.
We all laughed at the strange dates it was predicting. But i was current even before that date. Today i think many others are too.
Anyone has that link?

[iatiam]

Pdmar,

http://www.myprioritydate.com/

Yes, I was the one who posted the link. It was the link my friend told me about and he also said for most of his friends, the dates followed to the t.


Remember sombody had posted a link to some website that predicted when one would get current?
Did we delete that post? It was 3week of october that it had come up on this forum.
We all laughed at the strange dates it was predicting. But i was current even before that date. Today i think many others are too.
Anyone has that link?

[helpful_leo]

Q, others;

Getting current today must be one of the least expected things to have happened to me!

Can somebody please clarify these basics to me:

1/ I got current today. So does this mean that we can apply for I-485 only on Jan 1st (and not next week)?

2/ How long is the I-485 application window period open? Jan 1-31st?

3/ If above is true, what is the advantage in your application reaching USCIS on, say, 1/1 vesus 1/25?

4/ I see a lot of posts and lawyer letters ask for "all your past I-797s / I-20s / I-94s". (But not USCIS http://www.uscis.gov/files/form/i-485instr.pdf ). I do not think I have a copy of my first I-20 from 11 years ago, or the earlier I-797s? I do have all documentation from last 5 years.
Is this critical? Any way around it?

5/ Can we ask our company lawyer to file for our EAD / AP with the I-485? Does this usually concern the employers, as the AC21 clock starts ticking after EAD application (as EAD is really not needed in our case, because of post-6yr H1B extension).

And what's with the old I-94s? Aren't you supposed to surrender it at the airport when you exit the country? How can you then have old I-94s, except your latest I-94?

Apologize for long list of Qs!

[Momster]

BTW, now I know what it feels like to be close. PD is 1/4/09. In anticipation of next month's forward movement, I have a question:

1. I-140 has been applied for but not approved yet. PERM was under appeal for a couple of years and so I-140 was only applied for a few months back. Can I-140 and 485 be applied for simultaneously on Feb 1st assuming the PD gets current in the next VB?

Reason PERM was denied: the lawyer forgot to attach any supporting documents! Heard back in Jan 2010 with a denial. Yes, such things do happen.

[Gclongwait]

check in quotes below

Q, others;

Getting current today must be one of the least expected things to have happened to me!

Can somebody please clarify these basics to me:

1/ I got current today. So does this mean that we can apply for I-485 only on Jan 1st (and not next week)?
Ans: You are not yet current. You will current only from Jan1st.

2/ How long is the I-485 application window period open? Jan 1-31st?
Ans: its open as long as your date stays current, which means at least Jan 1-31, depending on the Feb 2012 bulletin.

3/ If above is true, what is the advantage in your application reaching USCIS on, say, 1/1 vesus 1/25?
Ans: No real advantage. just more peace of mind, maybe faster EAD/AP by a few days.

4/ I see a lot of posts and lawyer letters ask for "all your past I-797s / I-20s / I-94s". (But not USCIS http://www.uscis.gov/files/form/i-485instr.pdf ). I do not think I have a copy of my first I-20 from 11 years ago, or the earlier I-797s? I do have all documentation from last 5 years.
Is this critical? Any way around it?
Ans: depends on your lawyer. I don't think its big deal though.

5/ Can we ask our company lawyer to file for our EAD / AP with the I-485? Does this usually concern the employers, as the AC21 clock starts ticking after EAD application (as EAD is really not needed in our case, because of post-6yr H1B extension).
Ans:It shouldn't matter to your employers, everybody does it. Actually the lawyers should not even be telling them this, so they should not even know.

And what's with the old I-94s? Aren't you supposed to surrender it at the airport when you exit the country? How can you then have old I-94s, except your latest I-94?
Ans: I didnt have them all, just the last one. That's all I gave. Nobody has all of them after so long in this country (8 years for me).
Apologize for long list of Qs!

[suninphx]

BTW, now I know what it feels like to be close. PD is 1/4/09. In anticipation of next month's forward movement, I have a question:

1. I-140 has been applied for but not approved yet. PERM was under appeal for a couple of years and so I-140 was only applied for a few months back. Can I-140 and 485 be applied for simultaneously on Feb 1st assuming the PD gets current in the next VB?

Reason PERM was denied: the lawyer forgot to attach any supporting documents! Heard back in Jan 2010 with a denial. Yes, such things do happen.
If I140 is already been applied then can't you upgrade to premium processing?-check that .

[Pdmar08]

Pdmar,

http://www.myprioritydate.com/

Yes, I was the one who posted the link. It was the link my friend told me about and he also said for most of his friends, the dates followed to the t.

absolutely. Thank you so much, I have been dying to trace it. Thank you.
In retorspect the predictions of the site were not off by much. On 10/19 i check the site, it told me i will be current on 12/3. Technically i was current from 12/1(so 2 days off) and i leant it about a month before visa bulletin came out.

[helpful_leo]

Gclongwait:

Thank you for the quick reply.

Very helpful, and much appreciated.

[Momster]

Thanks, suninphx. The I-140 related to the 2nd PERM filing (PD Jan 2010) went through PP because of a need to travel then. Not sure if the employer will do PP again. Will chk with them though.

Asked the lawyers today and they said I-140 and 485 will be filed together once date gets current. I wasn't even sure you can do that and if there are any risks in doing so, so I posed this question to see if anyone has been through a similar situation. Thanks again.

[fedupwithgc]

I have not come across any statement from DoL in this regard. Could you point me towards a link for the same? This would surely explain the low PERM/485 ratio, if true.

I was told by my attorney last year and we shall see if its true in next 3-4 months when inventory builds up...

Now that my date is current, next step is to apply and start monitoring the inventory demand. I think in next 2-3 months once we get latest Demand Data out, that should give us a lot more information on where we stand.

[Jonty Rhodes]

Dr.Jonty,
Thank you

You're very welcome, Veni.

[Feb262009]

I am so happy. Though I am not current yet, this gives me a hope. Who knows? I may be current in next bulletin. :)

[mysati]

Enigma,

I was on F1 before and as far as I know, it is preferable to be on H4 than on F1 because if u'r wife goes to an instate school, the tuition is much cheaper on H4. It however does not matter if she goes to a private College. F1 status is preferable, if she can get any on-campus job and get partial/full funding. Once you get your EAD, there is no need to change status, as she can work using her EAD. As far as I know, EAD should hold good for on-campus jobs too.


Thanks, Q. It's comforting to know that others have been through the 485 stage on F1. Would you suggest changing my wife's status from F1 to H4, after applying for 485 and getting the EAD cards? (since she would be able to continue her on-campus work without the need for F1 at that point). I am assuming here that if the dates do move past my PD they will eventually retrogress and I would be stuck at the EAD stage for the next year or so.

PS - Please let me know if I should move this conversation to a different thread and I will be happy to do so.

[mysati]

Scion,
Congrats on beoming current!

I was in a similar situation with the Dec VB. I collected all my paperwork, filled forms, got my medicals done within a week, and sent them to the attorneys. I also made sure, that they will FedEx my app on Nov-30th and postponed my tickets to the first week in Dec. I got FedEx confirmation that my app has reached the lockbox, before I left. You can give a cushion of a few days between the receipt of your app and before you leave. Hopefully, I should not/will not have any problems on re-entry. Just keeping my fingers crossed.

I have my H1 stamping valid until late 2012 and can re-enter using that. You can follow a similar procedure only if you have a valid visa stamping before your re-entry (as you will not have your AP by then).

Hope this helps.




Hi Guys, Firstly Congrats everyone who got current. I was super happy to see the news this morning that I am current. My PD is Nov 2008. I had a question for the Guru's. I am planning to travel to India from Dec 29th - Jan 29th 2012. Does this movement mean that I have to effectively cancel my trip all together? Or is there a way I can file and then leave or try to salvage some portion of my planned trip?

Thanks,

[RMS_V13]

Again, sorry for posting in the wrong thread. My wife is in India and will be coming here end of Dec to file AOS. She has to go back again though. Your experience based answers will help me evaluate the options on when she can leave

How long after filing for I 485, can I expect FP notice?
How long after filing for I 485 can I expect AP ?
How long after filing for I 485 can I expect EAD ?

[Pdmar08]

Probably you are talking about this....

http://www.myprioritydate.com/

Yes i was. Thank You!

[Pdmar08]

Again, sorry for posting in the wrong thread. My wife is in India and will be coming here end of Dec to file AOS. She has to go back again though. Your experience based answers will help me evaluate the options on when she can leave

How long after filing for I 485, can I expect FP notice?
How long after filing for I 485 can I expect AP ?
How long after filing for I 485 can I expect EAD ?

See nishants post #2545
- Receipts in 8-10 days after USCIS gets application
- Biometric appointment notice in 3-4 weeks after that
- EAD/AP card around 30 days after biometric appointment is done
- He says 60 days around after application receipted is good estimate for EAD/AP card
- GC he says before June 1st i.e. around 180 days after application gets in

[qesehmk]

For good or bad 140 date sticks and labor is forgotten IMHO.

So filing 485 shouldn't be a problem. I would file 485 and then try to correct 140 error - which clearly doesn't seem like a big deal.


Typo in PD - I 140 :(

I know this is the wrong thread, so will delete this message after I get a reply. Sorry!

Hi All,

I was gathering all the documents needed for I485 filing and noticed that in the copy of I140 I had with, we have a typo in the PD field , instead of Mar 26, 2008, it says May 26, 2008.

I checked the copy of labor petition and it clearly says the filing date is 03-26-2008.

Will this cause any delay in filing my 485 ? what will the lawyers do in such cases ? should I have to wait for my I140 to be corrected ?

[SaturnRing]

Thanks for your quick reply Q

[nishant2200]

See nishants post #2545
- Receipts in 8-10 days after USCIS gets application
- Biometric appointment notice in 3-4 weeks after that
- EAD/AP card around 30 days after biometric appointment is done
- He says 60 days around after application receipted is good estimate for EAD/AP card
- GC he says before June 1st i.e. around 180 days after application gets in

Hi, would like to say that we are noticing folks getting EAD/AP in like 40 days too, before even FP is done. The above was normal timeline told to me by lawyer, but you may get lucky and get sooner. The new EAD/AP combo card per him is almost like GC and can hold digital information like biometrics.

[veni001]

Can someone answer this, i will remove this post from this thread once it is answered, thanks in advance

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?41-Prepare-to-file-I485&p=15819#post15819

Don't worry about it too much.

[sreddy]

I need advise from gurus or who have gone thro this before. I have my PD current in Jan'12 bulletin, and i am getting ready with my paper work to be able to apply first week of Jan (It's with Fargomen, so possible could go into second week as well). I need to go to india for some family thing around 23rd February to return around 18th March 2012, worst case i can stay week longer too. My I-797 valid until August 2014, but no stamping. Should i go for stamping to re-enter or will i be able to get my AP by then? or any other options that i can look at?

[scion78]

Thanks MySati. I am still trying to decide how many days should i postpone from 1/3/2011 to make sure I get the FedEx receipts and its safe to leave the country. I also have to get my H1-B stamping done while I am in India. I am wondering if it is better off for me to just postpone my travel until summer to be on the safer side. Thanks for the info!



Scion,
Congrats on beoming current!

I was in a similar situation with the Dec VB. I collected all my paperwork, filled forms, got my medicals done within a week, and sent them to the attorneys. I also made sure, that they will FedEx my app on Nov-30th and postponed my tickets to the first week in Dec. I got FedEx confirmation that my app has reached the lockbox, before I left. You can give a cushion of a few days between the receipt of your app and before you leave. Hopefully, I should not/will not have any problems on re-entry. Just keeping my fingers crossed.

I have my H1 stamping valid until late 2012 and can re-enter using that. You can follow a similar procedure only if you have a valid visa stamping before your re-entry (as you will not have your AP by then).

Hope this helps.

[imdeng]

My humble requests to people who are posting questions regarding 485 filings:
1. If your request is not super urgent (you do not need resolution/clarity in a matter of a day or two) - then please post in the appropriate thread and not on the Calculation and Prediction thread. Other threads also have very good traffic now.
2. Please don't post the same questions to Q's Forum, **, trackitt, Murthy and every other immigration forum. I am seeing the same questions appear on every forum. Good people everywhere are replying and there is a massive duplication of effort. Please post in your favorite forum and wait for a day or so for people to answer. If you are not satisfied then of course go ahead and post in other forums.
3. Before posting questions, please spend some time going through previous posts. I am seeing a lot of duplication in questions that should be avoided to keep the noise low.

I am not trying to discourage people asking questions - please do ask your questions - we are all in the same boat and we are all happy to help our fellow EB2/EB3 applicants - just trying to make the process a little more effective and efficient.

[Jonty Rhodes]

This does not explain the demand destruction and no way, it tells us what the demand destruction is for which category but I found it interesting, hence wanted to share it. http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/nri/visa-and-immigration/insecure-job-market-overseas-makes-indian-professionals-return-home/articleshow/11060839.cms.

[kd2008]

KD i am not sure i understood your question correctly. Eb1 EB2ROW "ALWAYS" take precendence over EB2IC. So yes they will have to be processed before EB2IC gets any extra visas. As per COs rationale behind moving dates - it is clear that he doesn't have a consistent rationale. If we he were to look at his own demand data ... he had more than enough left at the end of sep 2011 from 7% quota perspective. So he didn't need to move the date by a single month. Now he has moved it even beyond any possible SOFAD this year. So clearly he is using his discretion in moving the dates. So i wouldn't try to find any "legal" rationale or basis to his actions. He has to give us some cool-aid in each VB and we are drinking it. As long as the party goes on lets enjoy and file 485. As he himself said - someday it will have to come to end. Makes sense?

I wasn't coming from a data analysis angle. I was trying to build a logical angle of what to expect next. What kind of demand is approvable next, what demand is going to be built next, how these events will result in the fiscal year end that may not be as sweet as now.

Yes, we know that CO is not paying attention to country limits or following law to the T. I was trying to build a picture of the results from his current actions.

[veni001]

I need advise from gurus or who have gone thro this before. I have my PD current in Jan'12 bulletin, and i am getting ready with my paper work to be able to apply first week of Jan (It's with Fargomen, so possible could go into second week as well). I need to go to india for some family thing around 23rd February to return around 18th March 2012, worst case i can stay week longer too. My I-797 valid until August 2014, but no stamping. Should i go for stamping to re-enter or will i be able to get my AP by then? or any other options that i can look at?

sreddy,
I wouldn't recommend travelling until EAD/AP in hand after applying for 485, unless you have a valid VISA stamp in the passport.

Even if you apply on Jan1st, chances of receiving AP by 2/23/12 are minimal. If you must travel before receiving EAD-AP then you have to get a non-immigrant VISA abroad to re-enter into US.

In any event please make sure that you will not miss your bio-metrics appointment.

Good Luck!

[kd2008]

Folks, I have seen a lot of bashing in other forums over including certified-expired in our calculations of PERM data. No matter how it is explained to them that the calculation methodology is correct, and the lower demand is due to external factors like economy, they still bash the calculations. I am just so exasperated by it. Please do not fall for the flawed logic in other forums.

[Pdmar08]

Hi, would like to say that we are noticing folks getting EAD/AP in like 40 days too, before even FP is done. The above was normal timeline told to me by lawyer, but you may get lucky and get sooner. The new EAD/AP combo card per him is almost like GC and can hold digital information like biometrics.

Nishant,
you are 100% right, i was going to post what my lawyer told me yesterday but i was not clear, now it makes sense. He said that they do approve cases in 30 days but he also added that big movements they might slowdown.
His words "Often they approve current cases within a month or so, but given the big advances in the EB-2 category they may slow down given the high number of cases being filed/about to be filed. "
Hopefully we will file this week.

[Tomtuat]

Congrats all :)

[imdeng]

We should perhaps start talking about what is the potential post-07/07 EB2IC 485 density. We had assumed it to be 2500/month - which seems like is too high and bears revising downwards. The questions that we need to address:

1. What data points can help us get a better grip on the density estimates?

2. What is your estimate for post-07/07 density and what is your rationale?

Looking forward to a fact based discussion and analysis. Gurus - please get the ball rolling.

[asankaran]

There is no point in getting upset. The more we are open for positive criticism the better it is for the immigrant community. The reason people have started questioning is when the outcome is bizarre from the projections. It's good people start questioning in the right spirit.

Having said, that I just checked the PERM case status in 2010 and found that mine says us just "Certified" and not "Certified Expired". So any reason why we are including "Certified Expired" as well. If you point me to right page that would be helpful.

Thanks.

Folks, I have seen a lot of bashing in other forums over including certified-expired in our calculations of PERM data. No matter how it is explained to them that the calculation methodology is correct, and the lower demand is due to external factors like economy, they still bash the calculations. I am just so exasperated by it. Please do not fall for the flawed logic in other forums.

[HR3012]

Congratulations to everyone who got current in Jan bulletin.
Glad I found such a wonderful forum, thanks to all the Gurus for the excellent work.

[immitime]

This does not explain the demand destruction and no way, it tells us what the demand destruction is for which category but I found it interesting, hence wanted to share it. http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/nri/visa-and-immigration/insecure-job-market-overseas-makes-indian-professionals-return-home/articleshow/11060839.cms.

I wonder If Indian economy is growing as per valuless (mouth piece of biased politicalparties) TOI paper economic times why the 1 US dollar is Rs.51 today? at the same time a year back this was only Rs.39?? Sorry for the offtopic.

[qesehmk]

kd i think we should keep doing what we r doing. success begets criticism. let others create their own theories . but unless backed by data and sound rationale and proved true at least indirectly they will remain only theories. i would nt pay much attn to them.
Folks, I have seen a lot of bashing in other forums over including certified-expired in our calculations of PERM data. No matter how it is explained to them that the calculation methodology is correct, and the lower demand is due to external factors like economy, they still bash the calculations. I am just so exasperated by it. Please do not fall for the flawed logic in other forums.

[Archer]

hi gurus.,
my date is current now. and congrats to all the people who can apply in Jan.
What documents do i need to get from my wifes employer? She was on H4 and now on H1. She joined the company recently and her first payroll will run in January.
do i need to wait for her payslip i.e, may be 5-7th of Jan?

[Spectator]

There is no point in getting upset. The more we are open for positive criticism the better it is for the immigrant community. The reason people have started questioning is when the outcome is bizarre from the projections. It's good people start questioning in the right spirit.

Having said, that I just checked the PERM case status in 2010 and found that mine says us just "Certified" and not "Certified Expired". So any reason why we are including "Certified Expired" as well. If you point me to right page that would be helpful.

Thanks.This subject has been discussed extensively both here and on other fora.

I would guess the approval date for your PERM case was in the last 180 days of the FY concerned.

Equally people have reported that their PERM Certification shows as Certified-Expired, even though they have an approved I-140 based on that PERM. One such example can be found here http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?4-EB2-Predictions-%28Rather-Calculations%29-2011&p=6313&highlight=PERM+Certified#post6313

The other point is how would DOL know whether an I-140 had been submitted to USCIS within the 180 days? They wouldn't.

I have previously analyzed the PERM data and, apart from a few outliers, all cases approved 180 days or less from the end of the FY are marked Certified and all cases approved more than 180 days from the end of the FY are marked Certified-Expired.

If Certified-Expired cases were not included, then only 180 days worth of data would be considered in the calculation. We would then have to believe that no-one who had their PERM approved in the first six months of the FY submitted an I-140 within 180 days. Further, we would have to believe that everybody who had their PERM approved in the last 180 days did submit an I-140 within 180 days. In fact that is impossible, since when the data was published, not all cases were 180 days old.

Bottom line - I am more than happy with evidence from multiple sources that Certified-Expired cases should be included in the total to base the calculation on. Clearly some would actually become Expired because no I-140 was submitted and this needs to be accounted for. However, it is beyond believe that this figure would be > 50%, which is what happens if Certified-Expired cased in the PERM data are excluded, the more so since PERM is a very time consuming process and expensive for the Employer.

[Pdmar08]

hi gurus.,
my date is current now. and congrats to all the people who can apply in Jan.
What documents do i need to get from my wifes employer? She was on H4 and now on H1. She joined the company recently and her first payroll will run in January.
do i need to wait for her payslip i.e, may be 5-7th of Jan?

No employment related docs like paystubs or W2s if she is filing with you.
You will need here I797 or any other visa doc/approval notices to show continuous legal status. From my experience my wife was here on her BL1 before and the lawyer asked for the approved blanket petition too...had to struggle to get it.
Other than that the usual, passport, i94 marriage and birth certs.
Look at one of the other thread there is plenty of info available.