EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

[leo07]

Imdeng, can you elaborate the formula?

Thats even better. That would mean 12K + 0.85*40K = 46K of EB2IC inventory needed to meet HR-3012 requirement for FY2012.

[Pedro Gonzales]

Guys,
Why does 85% apply to only 40K, why not 140K....
And does 85% apply to India or India and China? The way I was reading it, it would apply only to one country(India).

Guys, we have a thread more or less dedicated to HR3012.
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?211-Discussion-of-Bills-that-remove-the-Per-Country-Limits-H.R.2161-H.R.3012-H.R.3119
I'm moving all the specific HR3012 posts that aren't numbers related there. Feel free to discuss the implications of the bill passing on the VB dates here if you wish, but move your bill specific questions to that thread.

[Pedro Gonzales]

Imdeng, can you elaborate the formula?

I think he's referring to
12K of FD from EB1 (since with HR3012 FA from EB2ROW would no longer be relevant)
85% of 40K being unreserved amount available to all countries per PD that will be used almost completely by I & C

imdeng, one thing you are forgetting is that depending on when HR3012 passes (if it passes), there may not be 85% still available for EB2I & C.
The USCIS would most likely have already used up more than the 15% by Dec 31 for countries other than I & C (I'm saying this on the basis of absolutely no analysis), so if HR3012 becomes law at that time EB2IC will not have the entire 85% amount. Most likely EB2ROW will become U at that stage, and all remaining visa numbers will be provided based purely on PDs (so only to EB2I & C). Every month's delay in passing the law will cost EB2IC more visa numbers.

[leo07]

ok. Thanks. Just wanted to be sure. Like you said, it would be some thing like 12K-x + 0.85*0.8*40k. x being qsp already applied and assuming 20% of visas are consumed by Jan 1st.

[Pedro Gonzales]

Guys, I moved several more messages on HR3012 to the advocacy thread here:
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?211-Discussion-of-Bills-that-remove-the-Per-Country-Limits-H.R.2161-H.R.3012-H.R.3119

[vizcard]

Just wanted to wish this board a Happy Thanksgiving. Hopefully, we'll have an opportunity soon to give thanks related to our GCs

[nishant2200]

Observation.

Dec VB DD published on Nov 9th wednesday morning, although data collection date says Nov 7th monday.

Dec VB itself officially published on Nov 10th thursday morning, unofficially seen on mumbai consulate website on Nov 9th night time here, and here's the big observation: the date of publication on Dec VB says November 8th tuesday.

It can be infered that DD was very much ready on nov 7th monday and VB was very much ready in CO's mind same day and in actual hard copy on nov 8th tuesday itself. It was already decided, delay was artificial.

[dec2007]

Observation.

Dec VB DD published on Nov 9th wednesday morning, although data collection date says Nov 7th monday.

Dec VB itself officially published on Nov 10th thursday morning, unofficially seen on mumbai consulate website on Nov 9th night time here, and here's the big observation: the date of publication on Dec VB says November 8th tuesday.

It can be infered that DD was very much ready on nov 7th monday and VB was very much ready in CO's mind same day and in actual hard copy on nov 8th tuesday itself. It was already decided, delay was artificial.

Hello Nishanth
How is your paper work coming along. Will you be able to file on Dec 1st.
When should we expect to get EAD if we file on Dec 1st week.

Thanks. all the best

[nishant2200]

Yes, lawyer says he will overnight it on 11/30 so that it gets there on 12/1

This is the expected sequence of events told to me that lawyer expects:
- Receipts in 8-10 days after USCIS gets application
- Biometric appointment notice in 3-4 weeks after that
- EAD/AP card around 30 days after biometric appointment is done
- He says 60 days around after application receipted is good estimate for EAD/AP card
- GC he says before June 1st i.e. around 180 days after application gets in

Also my birth certificate does not have my and mother's full name, my mother's first name has "ben" attached to it, and my wife's birth certificate is registered late in 2005, but he says he will submit only simple birth certificate, and if they ask for clarification, he will submit the additional stuff I have given him (School leaving certificate, affidavits), and he feels that if we submit too much stuff in the initial stage, it unnecessarily makes USCIS think, that there is a problem and complicates matters.


Hello Nishanth
How is your paper work coming along. Will you be able to file on Dec 1st.
When should we expect to get EAD if we file on Dec 1st week.

Thanks. all the best

[imdeng]

Looking at Spec's updated PERM numbers for 2011: http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?85-PERM-Breakdowns-For-PD-%28including-Monthly-Breakdown%29

Seems like the super high PERM numbers of 2010 are carrying through to 2011. We have EB2IC PERM density of 3K per month now. Sure, some of these are porting/duplicate/parallel filing - but even after discounting those, the situation is dire. If this situation continues and economy picks up then EB2 is well on its way to becoming EB3 unless something like HR-3012 happens.

Request for Spec: Spec - it would be helpful to see monthly PERM numbers for EB2IC in comparison to the same for EB2ROW especially in regards to fall-across spillover numbers. If its not too much trouble, please post them as well. Thanks.

[qesehmk]

It could be worrisome if those approvals all relate to year 2011 PDs.

I do not think they all relate to year 2011 PDs so the density could be less than what's implied there.

Looking at Spec's updated PERM numbers for 2011: http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?85-PERM-Breakdowns-For-PD-%28including-Monthly-Breakdown%29

Seems like the super high PERM numbers of 2010 are carrying through to 2011. We have EB2IC PERM density of 3K per month now. Sure, some of these are porting/duplicate/parallel filing - but even after discounting those, the situation is dire. If this situation continues and economy picks up then EB2 is well on its way to becoming EB3 unless something like HR-3012 happens.

Request for Spec: Spec - it would be helpful to see monthly PERM numbers for EB2IC in comparison to the same for EB2ROW especially in regards to fall-across spillover numbers. If its not too much trouble, please post them as well. Thanks.

[imdeng]

I believe the row labels are indeed the PD months. So, for example, we have 2919 EB2IC PERM cases with PD in Jan 2011 approved in FY2011. This is quite worrisome.

It could be worrisome if those approvals all relate to year 2011 PDs.

I do not think they all relate to year 2011 PDs so the density could be less than what's implied there.

[imdeng]

I just combined Spec's PERM data to see the distribution of PERM Approvals by country and by PD year. Turns out, India is not only continuously increasing its share of EB2/3 demand, the demand from India is now much more than the rest of the world combined. Shows you how ridiculous per country limits are and how deep a backlog EB2I will fall into pretty soon if HR-3012 fails (assuming most of India PERM approvals are EB2).

[self.coach]

Chances are major number of these perm approvals are porters from Eb3 to Eb2. 2007-2009 consistently increased but the number just started shooting up in 2009-2010..possibly after all the buzz about Eb2 movement. Sans HR3012, pretty bleak picture if this continues to happen. Thanks for the data.


I just combined Spec's PERM data to see the distribution of PERM Approvals by country and by PD year. Turns out, India is not only continuously increasing its share of EB2/3 demand, the demand from India is now much more than the rest of the world combined. Shows you how ridiculous per country limits are and how deep a backlog EB2I will fall into pretty soon if HR-3012 fails (assuming most of India PERM approvals are EB2).

[self.coach]

Q, what do you exactly mean by "relate to year 2011 PDs"?

It could be worrisome if those approvals all relate to year 2011 PDs.

I do not think they all relate to year 2011 PDs so the density could be less than what's implied there.

[gkjppp]

You can add around 200 from HP for year 2008, i am not sure on count but there are reasonable no's from BOA for year 2008.

[imdeng]

We have determined porting to be about 3K per year - so that explains only a small part of the data.


Chances are major number of these perm approvals are porters from Eb3 to Eb2. 2007-2009 consistently increased but the number just started shooting up in 2009-2010..possibly after all the buzz about Eb2 movement. Sans HR3012, pretty bleak picture if this continues to happen. Thanks for the data.

[self.coach]

Is the 3K per year consistent since 2008? Do we have yearly data for Eb3-Eb2 portings since 2008? I'd say lesser in 2008/09 and jumping up since then.

We have determined porting to be about 3K per year - so that explains only a small part of the data.

[imdeng]

3K is the estimated figure for last year (FY2011). It is not expected to move much in either direction.


Is the 3K per year consistent since 2008? Do we have yearly data for Eb3-Eb2 portings since 2008? I'd say lesser in 2008/09 and jumping up since then.

[vizcard]

3K is the estimated figure for last year (FY2011). It is not expected to move much in either direction.

Have we come full circle in terms of density? There was discussion a month back where we talked about 2000 vs 2500 vs 3000 and we settled on 2500. Obviously 3000 is not good for folks in the second half of 2008 and 2009 unless 3012 goes through.

[Spectator]

Request for Spec: Spec - it would be helpful to see monthly PERM numbers for EB2IC in comparison to the same for EB2ROW especially in regards to fall-across spillover numbers. If its not too much trouble, please post them as well. Thanks.
imdeng,

Do you mean PERM numbers for ROW, or do you mean numbers for Non-IC (ROW-M-P)?

[qesehmk]

My bad. Spec's heading itself says those are PDs.

That trend is very surprising indeed.


Q, what do you exactly mean by "relate to year 2011 PDs"?

[imdeng]

I meant Non-IC Spec. As far as EB2 is concerned, ROW, M and P are all in the same bucket - right? Thanks.

imdeng,

Do you mean PERM numbers for ROW, or do you mean numbers for Non-IC (ROW-M-P)?

[suninphx]

imdeng,

Do you mean PERM numbers for ROW, or do you mean numbers for Non-IC (ROW-M-P)?
Spec,
Good to see your post after long time. Hope you are having great holidays.

[DonDron]

Yes, lawyer says he will overnight it on 11/30 so that it gets there on 12/1

This is the expected sequence of events told to me that lawyer expects:
- Receipts in 8-10 days after USCIS gets application
- Biometric appointment notice in 3-4 weeks after that
- EAD/AP card around 30 days after biometric appointment is done
- He says 60 days around after application receipted is good estimate for EAD/AP card
- GC he says before June 1st i.e. around 180 days after application gets in

Also my birth certificate does not have my and mother's full name, my mother's first name has "ben" attached to it, and my wife's birth certificate is registered late in 2005, but he says he will submit only simple birth certificate, and if they ask for clarification, he will submit the additional stuff I have given him (School leaving certificate, affidavits), and he feels that if we submit too much stuff in the initial stage, it unnecessarily makes USCIS think, that there is a problem and complicates matters.

Nishant,

How long did it take for you and your lawyer to prepare the application? And what would be the receipt date for you if your application is reached USCIS on Dec 1st?

[Spectator]

Request for Spec: Spec - it would be helpful to see monthly PERM numbers for EB2IC in comparison to the same for EB2ROW especially in regards to fall-across spillover numbers. If its not too much trouble, please post them as well. Thanks.Done.

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?270-PERM-Breakdowns-For-PD-%28including-Monthly-Breakdown%29-for-ROW-Mexico-amp-Philippines

[Spectator]

Here's a quick analysis.

The average for 2011 is taken over January-May only.

The 2011 figure for the Year assumes that the Average continues at that rate for the remainder of the CY.

I would expect the 2011 final figure to be somewhat higher eventually (56-60k), since there are still Audit applications to be added.

As you can see, the increase in 2011 is not uniform across all Countries/Groups.

Although the % increase for China is large, the number is fairly small. Within ROW-M-P, Mexico is static and Philippines is lower. Most of the increase in numbers comes from India.


201

[kabphx]

Wonderful job with this forum, was following ** frequently and suddenly saw the drop in activity but it started over here.. :) Glad i found it.

understood that the PD would retrogress in mar,12 but wouldn't there be further movement in July 2012 VB.

[imdeng]

Thanks Spec. Much Appreciated.

Done.

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?270-PERM-Breakdowns-For-PD-%28including-Monthly-Breakdown%29-for-ROW-Mexico-amp-Philippines

[qesehmk]

Trident

Good luck with the move. This shouldn't be a problem at all. But do update your address with USCIS.

I would expect you to receive the GC in 2-3 months max - assuming yours is a straigtforward case and you are working with a well reputed MNC.

Even otherwise 6-9 months should be more than sufficient. Regarding EAD check the current times on USCIS website. They are decently accurate.


Gurus,
I do understand that this question would not fall completely under this section..I can remove it in a couple of days.
My PD is 06/01/2007, 485 applied – October 1st week, FP completed – November 1st week.
1.How long does it take to get the AP/EAD card based on your experience.
2. If Quarterly spillover happens,(ref Nishanth and Q ‘s posting earlier)when can I expect GC.
I need to move my residence in the next couple of weeks in the same city (actually will be moving much closer to my work)..Do you see any red flags ?
Thanks in advance.

[TeddyKoochu]

Following is a compare of the EB2 row and EB1 trend so far. For simplicity i just assumed that Nov is done for approvals.
EB1
2011 - 10+14+13 = 37
2012 - 7+11+38 = 56
The number of Eb1c approvals is almost at 3 times of last year. EB1 A & b are still in early days. Most EB1c cases will use up more visas as these folks are less
likely to have us born kids as a lot of them will be in the age group 35-40 when they would have filed I140 & I485. Most of Trackitt Eb1c is from India, this trend correlates well with high i140 approvals in recent days.
EB2 ROW
2011 - 88
2012 - 37
EB2 row is significantly underperforming, row has a tendency to pick up later in the year, last year also row stated weak initially but picked up later.
Overall as of now I feel that things that Eb2 Row decline and EB1 moving faster may just cancel each other.

[TeddyKoochu]

Friends I have updated the header of the thread with my current thoughts. Please refer to http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?148-EB2-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)-2012&p=7653#post7653. Your comments, critique and suggestions are greatly appreciated.

[suninphx]

Friends I have updated the header of the thread with my current thoughts. Please refer to http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?148-EB2-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)-2012&p=7653#post7653. Your comments, critique and suggestions are greatly appreciated.

Teddy- Thanks for detailed analysis.
When you get chance please correct typo. ( I am sure you meant 15th MAY to 01-JUN-2008)

[vizcard]

Friends I have updated the header of the thread with my current thoughts. Please refer to http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?148-EB2-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)-2012&p=7653#post7653. Your comments, critique and suggestions are greatly appreciated.

How does the NVC receipt data fit in? The general assumption is current in 6-12 months. So Sept 15, 2008 (last known date) should be current by approx. Oct 1, 2012.

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy- Thanks for detailed analysis.
When you get chance please correct typo. ( I am sure you meant 15th MAY to 01-JUN-2008)

Thanks, you are right, I made the correction.

[TeddyKoochu]

How does the NVC receipt data fit in? The general assumption is current in 6-12 months. So Sept 15, 2008 (last known date) should be current by approx. Oct 1, 2012.

IMHO it should be Oct to Dec 2012. If however HR 3012 passes or there is momentum around it even much sooner is possible. Let's also hope that Sofad can be more 25k is just the initial tentative judgement as of now.

[SaturnRing]

Hi Teddy,

Considering the situation where there is no movement or possible retro in Jan bulletin, when do you expect forward movements again ? For Mar 26th 2008, do you think I would have to wait till Jul/Oct 2012 ?

[Spectator]

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?59-Prevailing-Wage-Determination-Data-Analysis

PS The Trackitt Comparison Data is now also being updated http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?181-Trackitt-Comparison-FY2012-vs.-FY2011

[kd2008]

thanks Spec! Looking forward to PERM FY 2011 full year report next. :-)

Glad full year FY 2011 database is now posted at http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.gov/quarterlydata.cfm

Oye! the PERM database is 1.43 GB! Yes, GB! FY 2010 was about 100 MB, may be? I wonder why the their is such a huge difference.

[Spectator]

thanks Spec! Looking forward to PERM FY 2011 full year report next. :-)

Glad full year FY 2011 database is now posted at http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.gov/quarterlydata.cfm

Oye! the PERM database is 1.43 GB! Yes, GB! FY 2010 was about 100 MB, may be? I wonder why the their is such a huge difference.kd,

All the relevant posts were updated on November 23rd when the data was published, or shortly after.

At imdeng's request, I have also added a thread for Non-IC PERM by monthly breakdown http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?270-PERM-Breakdowns-For-PD-%28including-Monthly-Breakdown%29-for-ROW-Mexico-amp-Philippines

The file is huge, but within it, the PERM data itself is much smaller. I suspect they forgot to remove some queries before publishing it.

DOL published a Fact Sheet (http://icert.doleta.gov/includes/modules/callDoc.cfm?RequestedDocument=PERM_Factsheet_6_27_ 11.pdf) previously, saying that applications received to the end of May (about 45k) were 63% higher than the corresponding period in FY2010. That appears to be true based on the available PERM figures to date.

Although the figures below are slightly lower, they are only cases that have been adjudicated, so don't include any that are still in Audit etc.

204
I think they make interesting reading.

[veni001]

Below is a quick summary of FY2011 PERM Data and also comparison to FY 2010 data.

FY2011 saw decrease in PERM completions and also increase in denial rate.

INDIA::

FY2010:
Completions = 31,996
Certified = 28,930
Denied/Withdrawn = 3,066 (9.58%)

FY2011:
Completions = 35,573 (11.17% increase)
Certified = 31,273 (8.09% increase)
Denied/Withdrawn = 4,300 (12.08%)

CHINA::

FY2010:
Completions = 4,558
Certified = 4,052
Denied/Withdrawn = 506 (11.1%)

FY2011:
Completions = 4,031 (11.56% decrease)
Certified = 3,448 (14.9% decrease)
Denied/Withdrawn =583 (14.46%)

South Korea::

FY2010:
Completions = 5,301
Certified = 4,610
Denied/Withdrawn = 691 (13.04%)

FY2011:
Completions = 4,056 (23.5% decrease)
Certified = 3,147 (31.73% decrease)
Denied/Withdrawn = 909 (22.41%)

ROW-M-P:: ***ROW-M-P data is very interesting ***

FY2010:
Completions = 44,858
Certified = 37,255
Denied/Withdrawn = 7,603 (16.94%)

FY2011:
Completions = 33,603 (25% decrease)
Certified = 25,142 (32.51% decrease)
Denied/Withdrawn = 8,461 (25.17%)

*******************************
Overall::

FY2010:
Completions = 81,412
Certified = 70,237
Denied/Withdrawn = 11,175 (13.72%)

FY2011:
Completions = 73,207 (10% decrease)
Certified = 59,863 (14.77% decrease)
Denied/Withdrawn = 13,344 (18.22%)

PERM Processing Times (as of 11/01/2011)
Analyst Reviews -- August 2011
Audits -- March 2011
Reconsideration Requests -- September 2009
Gov't Error Reconsiderations -- Current
*******************************

NOTE: FY2011 saw significant increase (~200%) in EB1 applications (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?49-140-Data-and-EB1-Demand-Calculations) compared to FY2010

[Spectator]

Below is a quick summary of FY2011 PERM Data and also comparison to FY 2010 data.

FY2011 saw decrease in PERM completions and also increase in denial rate.Veni,

Nice post.

DOL processing efficiency was not as good in FY2011 as FY2010, possibly due to the few problems they had during the year.

Normal processing time, which had reduced to about one month, has increased to 3 months. Maybe that isn't too surprising, as they have turned to reducing the Audit backlog and those cases must take longer to close out.

So we have a situation where there were more receipts in FY2011 and less completions - not a good recipe.

For those more visually inclined when looking at data (like me :)), here is what Veni was saying in a tabular form (most of it anyway).

215

[TeddyKoochu]

Hi Teddy,

Considering the situation where there is no movement or possible retro in Jan bulletin, when do you expect forward movements again ? For Mar 26th 2008, do you think I would have to wait till Jul/Oct 2012 ?

The prediction for the next bulletin is purely based the fact that the Sofad for 2012 maybe around 25k. With the current intakes there is some buffer so if CO wants more buffer then he will go for more intake, if he feels it’s sufficient it might be time to retrogress. In either case if the movement is guarded or dates retrogress we can logically expect the same cycle to occur every year Oct - Dec. however atleast for next month there will be another factor the HR 3012 factor if the bill passes the house and is likely to pass in the senate then I believe forward movement will not stop itself.

[TeddyKoochu]

Below is a quick summary of FY2011 PERM Data and also comparison to FY 2010 data.

FY2011 saw decrease in PERM completions and also increase in denial rate.

INDIA::

FY2010:
Completions = 31,996
Certified = 28,930
Denied/Withdrawn = 3,066 (9.58%)

FY2011:
Completions = 35,573 (11.17% increase)
Certified = 31,273 (8.09% increase)
Denied/Withdrawn = 4,300 (12.08%)

CHINA::

FY2010:
Completions = 4,558
Certified = 4,052
Denied/Withdrawn = 506 (11.1%)

FY2011:
Completions = 4,031 (11.56% decrease)
Certified = 3,448 (14.9% decrease)
Denied/Withdrawn =583 (14.46%)

South Korea::

FY2010:
Completions = 5,301
Certified = 4,610
Denied/Withdrawn = 691 (13.04%)

FY2011:
Completions = 4,056 (23.5% decrease)
Certified = 3,147 (31.73% decrease)
Denied/Withdrawn = 909 (22.41%)

ROW-M-P:: ***ROW-M-P data is very interesting ***

FY2010:
Completions = 44,858
Certified = 37,255
Denied/Withdrawn = 7,603 (16.94%)

FY2011:
Completions = 33,603 (25% decrease)
Certified = 25,142 (32.51% decrease)
Denied/Withdrawn = 8,461 (25.17%)

*******************************
Overall::

FY2010:
Completions = 81,412
Certified = 70,237
Denied/Withdrawn = 11,175 (13.72%)

FY2011:
Completions = 73,207 (10% decrease)
Certified = 59,863 (14.77% decrease)
Denied/Withdrawn = 13,344 (18.22%)

PERM Processing Times (as of 11/01/2011)
Analyst Reviews -- August 2011
Audits -- March 2011
Reconsideration Requests -- September 2009
Gov't Error Reconsiderations -- Current
*******************************

NOTE: FY2011 saw significant increase (~200%) in EB1 applications (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?49-140-Data-and-EB1-Demand-Calculations) compared to FY2010

Veni thanks. Even Trackitt is pointing to the same trend; EB2 ROW is declining however it shows a different proportion. Please advise how you inferred the 200% rise in EB1. On Trackitt EB1 A & B are still in the same proportion however EB1C approvals are virtually 3 times; approvals are coming for cases as old as 12 months to as recent as 4 months. This indicates that they have really overcome issues atleast with EB1C. Since your analysis is for the whole of FY 2011 the current approvals are more reflective of the last 4-6 months also in late FY 2011 the agencies had gone on an over-drive for EB2 row and EB1 this may also be a contributing factor why we are getting far fewer of EB2 row cases. Additionally on Trackitt it’s the EB1 folks who are complaining EB2 ROW seem to be silent. EB1 moving 200% faster may however overshadow more my initial inference was that EB2 ROW decrease and EB1 increase seem to cancel out.

[veni001]

Veni,

Nice post.

DOL processing efficiency was not as good in FY2011 as FY2010, possibly due to the few problems they had during the year.

Normal processing time, which had reduced to about one month, has increased to 3 months. Maybe that isn't too surprising, as they have turned to reducing the Audit backlog and those cases must take longer to close out.

So we have a situation where there were more receipts in FY2011 and less completions - not a good recipe.

For those more visually inclined when looking at data (like me :)), here is what Veni was saying in a tabular form (most of it anyway).

206

Spec,
Agree, about 15k (20.5%) of the cased processed in FY 2011 are from 2006-2009. Another 29k (38.5%) are from 2010.

Not to our surprise EB1 resurrected back in Q3-Q4 (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?49-140-Data-and-EB1-Demand-Calculations) of FY 2011, at this rate i don't think EB1 is going to yield any spillover for FY2012!

[veni001]

Veni thanks. Even Trackitt is pointing to the same trend; EB2 ROW is declining however it shows a different proportion. Please advise how you inferred the 200% rise in EB1. On Trackitt EB1 A & B are still in the same proportion however EB1C approvals are virtually 3 times; approvals are coming for cases as old as 12 months to as recent as 4 months. This indicates that they have really overcome issues atleast with EB1C. Since your analysis is for the whole of FY 2011 the current approvals are more reflective of the last 4-6 months also in late FY 2011 the agencies had gone on an over-drive for EB2 row and EB1 this may also be a contributing factor why we are getting far fewer of EB2 row cases. Additionally on Trackitt it’s the EB1 folks who are complaining EB2 ROW seem to be silent. EB1 moving 200% faster may however overshadow more my initial inference was that EB2 ROW decrease and EB1 increase seem to cancel out.

Teddy,
From FY2011 PERM data it is obvious that ROW-M-P saw 25% decrease in Y-to-Y completions (33% in Certifications) compared to FY2010.

As far as EB1, if we look at first half vs second half of FY 2011. (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?49-140-Data-and-EB1-Demand-Calculations)

Q1+Q2::
PERM Certifications = 35,147
Total i-140 Receipts = 42,096
~ EB1- i140 = 6,949

Q3+Q4::
PERM Certifications = 24,716
Total i-140 Receipts = 39,582
~ EB1- i140 = 14,866

Unless EB2-NIW receipts are very high(chances are less), it is obvious that EB1 picked-up steam in Q3-Q4.

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy,
From FY2011 PERM data it is obvious that ROW-M-P saw 25% decrease in Y-to-Y completions (33% in Certifications) compared to FY2010.

As far as EB1, if we look at first half vs second half of FY 2011. (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?49-140-Data-and-EB1-Demand-Calculations)

Q1+Q2::
PERM Certifications = 35,147
Total i-140 Receipts = 42,096
~ EB1- i140 = 6,949

Q3+Q4::
PERM Certifications = 24,716
Total i-140 Receipts = 39,582
~ EB1- i140 = 14,866

Unless EB2-NIW receipts are very high(chances are less), it is obvious that EB1 picked-up steam in Q3-Q4.

Veni, Thanks the calculations look great, there is really no reason for NIW to increase abruptly, perm process is going fine. The EB1 statistics are indeed concerning also topping this there is an unprecedented surge to clear out I140 what makes it worse is that this composition maybe richer in Eb1 than ever before. I agree with your inference we might not see any EB1 spillover this year. Saying this I now believe that the 25K SOFAD figure may well be in danger to get to this we may need ~ 12K from EB2 ROW under the assumption that EB5 and the regular cap will account for 7 + 6 ~ 13K. Last year EB2 ROW may have yielded 5-6K so we are really banking on it this year now to save the 25K figure. Also if EB1 overshoots 40K it has the first rights over EB5.

[veni001]

Veni, Thanks the calculations look great, there is really no reason for NIW to increase abruptly, perm process is going fine. The EB1 statistics are indeed concerning also topping this there is an unprecedented surge to clear out I140 what makes it worse is that this composition maybe richer in Eb1 than ever before. I agree with your inference we might not see any EB1 spillover this year. Saying this I now believe that the 25K SOFAD figure may well be in danger to get to this we may need ~ 12K from EB2 ROW under the assumption that EB5 and the regular cap will account for 7 + 6 ~ 13K. Last year EB2 ROW may have yielded 5-6K so we are really banking on it this year now to save the 25K figure. Also if EB1 overshoots 40K it has the first rights over EB5.

Teddy,
Two pointer that confirm higher EB1 demand are

1) Sudden increase in 485 demand for August/September 2011.
2) Higher than expected EB1-485 pending in October inventory report.

You can refer to my prediction for FY2012 posted back in October.

[Spectator]

Teddy,
From FY2011 PERM data it is obvious that ROW-M-P saw 25% decrease in Y-to-Y completions (33% in Certifications) compared to FY2010.Veni,

I think there is a danger in assuming that there is a real 33% decrease in ROW Certifications Y-to-Y.

Looking at the underlying data, it is clear that FY2011 has only processed to a point 2 months earlier than in FY2010 for Current year cases.
If I add back those 2 months, the total 59.9k Certifications for FY2011 would actually be 69.9k on the same basis as FY2010 (70.2k).

For ROW-M-P, the FY2011 figure of 25.1k would become 28.9k, which is only 22% less than the FY2010 figure of 37.3k.

That is still a pretty steep drop, but is offset by a similar rise (number-wise) in Indian Certifications (36.9k vs 28.9k).

The drop in ROW Certifications could lead to more FA, depending on the level of Backlog Reduction.

I agree that EB1 approvals are at quite a high level compared to last year. As Teddy says, the Trackitt data is a little odd. Not only are the approvals dominated by EB1C, 75% of the approvals are from India. This may be a statistical quirk of the Trackitt data though.

Since EB1 approvals can be a bit "lumpy" throughout the year, I reserve judgement. I agree the underlying data does not look encouraging.

What do the EB1 figures look like if you use the adjusted FY2011 PERM figure of 69,841 instead of 59,863??

EB2-ROW approvals on Trackitt are very low to date (about half last year's level) . Considering both the remaining I-140 backlog and the 11.5k cases in the October 2011 USCIS Inventory, I find that a little surprising.

It is possible that the EB2-IC cases have been prioritized and the ROW cases will be dealt with in the lull before new demand becomes apparent. Given that the EB2-IC cases were already pre-adjudicated, they would be the "low hanging fruit" and easier to complete in larger numbers.

The EB2-IC pre-adjudicated cases now look to be pretty much exhausted.

[vizcard]

Given all this discussion, can someone summarize the impact .. Best case / worst case scenario?

[TeddyKoochu]

Given all this discussion, can someone summarize the impact .. Best case / worst case scenario?

A very brief summary would be that Sofad will range between 20 - 25K as per the current indicators, personally though I will stick with something closer to 25K. 30K appears to be extremely unlikely. Given the point where we are it will also affect the new intake sentiment because we have certainly crossed the 25K line any fresh intake is now for purely buffering purpose.

Spec - I have deleted my post, you can work on it.

[veni001]

Veni,

I think there is a danger in assuming that there is a real 33% decrease in ROW Certifications Y-to-Y.

..................................................

For ROW-M-P, the FY2011 figure of 25.1k would become 28.9k, which is only 22% less than the FY2010 figure of 37.3k.

.................................................. .

What do the EB1 figures look like if you use the adjusted FY2011 PERM figure of 69,841 instead of 59,863??

EB2-ROW approvals on Trackitt are very low to date (about half last year's level) . Considering both the remaining I-140 backlog and the 11.5k cases in the October 2011 USCIS Inventory, I find that a little surprising.

..................

Spec,
Agree, looking at PERM data EB2ROWMP decrease is very clear, irrespective of the amount of backlog.

When i look at PERM data first half vs second half of FY2011, the decrease in PERM certifications for I&C is in proportion but for ROWMP it's 10% more than normal. If i compare Q4 to Q1 then it is 16% more!

As far as EB1 figures, since USCIS dashboard shows actual i-140 receipts, i don't think adjusted PERM numbers (pending) will make any difference.

In conclusion, EB1 is on the rise and increase in EB1 demand somewhat correlates to lower ROW-PERM (otherwise would have applied in EB2) in the second half of FY2011!

[qesehmk]

Spec and Veni

Could one of you pls clarify why Spec's numbers show YoY increase and Veni's show decrease. Also need to do that by bringing the numbers on same basis - e.g. I understand (correct if wrong) that veni's are not necessarily full year numbers.

[vizcard]

A very brief summary would be that Sofad will range between 20 - 25K as per the current indicators, personally though I will stick with something closer to 25K. 30K appears to be extremely unlikely. Given the point where we are it will also affect the new intake sentiment because we have certainly crossed the 25K line any fresh intake is now for purely buffering purpose.

Spec - I have deleted my post, you can work on it.

So it'll be about another couple of months of movement max. At 2500 density, we'll need 10 months of movement. So June 30 is still the target date for FY12?

[veni001]

Spec and Veni

Could one of you pls clarify why Spec's numbers show YoY increase and Veni's show decrease. Also need to do that by bringing the numbers on same basis - e.g. I understand (correct if wrong) that veni's are not necessarily full year numbers.

Q,
We both agree that decrease in EB2-ROWMP and increase in EB1.

I am using YoY PERM data and i-140 receipts from the dashboard, Spec is trying to get a feel for the PERM backlog by adjusting numbers for actual filings instead of completions.

[TeddyKoochu]

So it'll be about another couple of months of movement max. At 2500 density, we'll need 10 months of movement. So June 30 is still the target date for FY12?

25k Sofad just takes us to 01-FEb-2008. Actually there were 8.5K cases before Jul 15th 2007 that were approved this year so its only 16.5K beyond Jul 15th 2007. So if 25K is the target we are already in the buffer zone.

[Spectator]

Teddy,

My post now has the correct figures.

[Spectator]

Spec and Veni

Could one of you pls clarify why Spec's numbers show YoY increase and Veni's show decrease. Also need to do that by bringing the numbers on same basis - e.g. I understand (correct if wrong) that veni's are not necessarily full year numbers.

Q,

I agree it has become confusing. I hope I am addressing your question.

Apples and Oranges.

There is a YoY decrease in total Certifications i.e. when looking at ALL PDs. However DOL has processed 2 months less 2011 cases than they processed 2010 cases last year. When this is taken into account, the underlying total Certifications would be about the same as last year on the same basis.

When looking at Certifications for the Current year receipts i.e. PDs of 2011 in this year's data and PDs for 2010 in the FY2010 data, there is an increase.

The monthly density for PDs in 2011 is much higher to date. China, India & ROW are all substantially higher than the corresponding period in 2010, but China and India show a much higher increase than ROW.

If this trend continues for the rest of CY2011, then there will be a large number of 2011 PD cases.

It is likely to be be so high (56-60k) that the amount of spillover available would not be able to cover a full year's progress when these cases become Current. EB2-IC could be 35-37k of the total. That is the gross figure and would be reduced for Porting, multiple PERM etc. Nonetheless, it is a very high figure.

[qesehmk]

Spec

This is good. Thanks. So let me try to simplify the picture.

2011 is the year when we are possibly seeing higher EB density (possibly indicating economic optimism). However 2010 was the year when a lot of the labor backlog was cleared and hence although 2010 itself didn't see a lot of hiring, we did see a lot of backlog being cleared in 2010.

As a result, we could potentially see that until 2010 PD, the dates might progress relatively faster compared to the PDs in 2011. However the increased hiring in 2011 in EB1 and EB2ROW could reduce the overall SOFAD in 2012.

Great work on Labor data by Spec and Veni!



Q,

I agree it has become confusing. I hope I am addressing your question.

Apples and Oranges.

There is a YoY decrease in total Certifications i.e. when looking at ALL PDs. However DOL has processed 2 months less 2011 cases than they processed 2010 cases last year. When this is taken into account, the underlying total Certifications would be about the same as last year on the same basis.

When looking at Certifications for the Current year receipts i.e. PDs of 2011 in this year's data and PDs for 2010 in the FY2010 data, there is an increase.

The monthly density for PDs in 2011 is much higher to date. China, India & ROW are all substantially higher than the corresponding period in 2010, but China and India show a much higher increase than ROW.

If this trend continues for the rest of CY2011, then there will be a large number of 2011 PD cases.

It is likely to be be so high (56-60k) that the amount of spillover available would not be able to cover a full year's progress when these cases become Current. EB2-IC could be 35-37k of the total. That is the gross figure and would be reduced for Porting, multiple PERM etc. Nonetheless, it is a very high figure.

[veni001]

Spec

This is good. Thanks. So let me try to simplify the picture.

2011 is the year when we are possibly seeing higher EB density (possibly indicating economic optimism). However 2010 was the year when a lot of the labor backlog was cleared and hence although 2010 itself didn't see a lot of hiring, we did see a lot of backlog being cleared in 2010.

As a result, we could potentially see that until 2010 PD, the dates might progress relatively faster compared to the PDs in 2011. However the increased hiring in 2011 in EB1 and EB2ROW could reduce the overall SOFAD in 2011.

Great work on Labor data by Spec and Veni!

Q,
I am sure you meant to say FY2012.

[qesehmk]

Yes Veni. Thanks! Corrected.
Q,
I am sure you meant to say FY2012.

[Spectator]

Spec

This is good. Thanks. So let me try to simplify the picture.

2011 is the year when we are possibly seeing higher EB density (possibly indicating economic optimism). However 2010 was the year when a lot of the labor backlog was cleared and hence although 2010 itself didn't see a lot of hiring, we did see a lot of backlog being cleared in 2010.

As a result, we could potentially see that until 2010 PD, the dates might progress relatively faster compared to the PDs in 2011. However the increased hiring in 2011 in EB1 and EB2ROW could reduce the overall SOFAD in 2012.

Great work on Labor data by Spec and Veni!Q,

PD 2010 is less dense than PD 2009 for Non-IC, but much denser for IC than PD 2009, so it is not a great year overall (although still lower for IC than PD2008).

2011, to date, is just denser for everybody, but IC have risen far more than anybody else.

It remains to be seen whether this continues for the rest of CY2011. We will have a better idea in 6 months. Whether it is bad for SOFAD contribution by EB2-ROW really depends on how much backlog there is to come from previous years.

Using a modified form of Veni's calculation, I come up with a figure of an additional 5-6k EB1 I-140s, which would translate into an average 10.5k extra I-485.

That would essentially wipe out the EB1 contribution to SOFAD, which I have estimated at 12.5k for FY2011.

Let's hope it is incorrect.

[ChampU]

What happens if you miss the biometrics appointment?

Me and my wife are planning to go out on a vacation from Dec. 15th - Dec. 26th. I have sent all the documentation to my attorney and I think my application should be with USCIS by Dec. 1st. (Dec. 5th at max).
Based on the trends, the biometrics notices are sent out within 2 weeks. What are the chances of my biometrics appointment being in the window when I'm away? What happens if I miss this appointment?

[veni001]

What happens if you miss the biometrics appointment?

Me and my wife are planning to go out on a vacation from Dec. 15th - Dec. 26th. I have sent all the documentation to my attorney and I think my application should be with USCIS by Dec. 1st. (Dec. 5th at max).
Based on the trends, the biometrics notices are sent out within 2 weeks. What are the chances of my biometrics appointment being in the window when I'm away? What happens if I miss this appointment?

ChampU,
Unless you request to re-schedule your bio-metrics appointment before USCIS scheduled date, your 485 will be considered abandoned if you miss the appointment date.

[evoori]

What happens if you miss the biometrics appointment?

Me and my wife are planning to go out on a vacation from Dec. 15th - Dec. 26th. I have sent all the documentation to my attorney and I think my application should be with USCIS by Dec. 1st. (Dec. 5th at max).
Based on the trends, the biometrics notices are sent out within 2 weeks. What are the chances of my biometrics appointment being in the window when I'm away? What happens if I miss this appointment?
It is less likely for you to get appointment in that window.. According to USCIS they send you FP notice around 2 weeks before actual appointment.. To be extra safe I recommend not sending the packet on first and send it on second or later..

[ChampU]

It is less likely for you to get appointment in that window.. According to USCIS they send you FP notice around 2 weeks before actual appointment.. To be extra safe I recommend not sending the packet on first and send it on second or later..

Thanks! Thats what I planned to do. I will ask my attorney to mail it out on 2nd, so that the USCIS receives them on Monday, Dec. 5th.

[Pdmar08]

Yes, lawyer says he will overnight it on 11/30 so that it gets there on 12/1

This is the expected sequence of events told to me that lawyer expects:
- Receipts in 8-10 days after USCIS gets application
- Biometric appointment notice in 3-4 weeks after that
- EAD/AP card around 30 days after biometric appointment is done
- He says 60 days around after application receipted is good estimate for EAD/AP card
- GC he says before June 1st i.e. around 180 days after application gets in

Also my birth certificate does not have my and mother's full name, my mother's first name has "ben" attached to it, and my wife's birth certificate is registered late in 2005, but he says he will submit only simple birth certificate, and if they ask for clarification, he will submit the additional stuff I have given him (School leaving certificate, affidavits), and he feels that if we submit too much stuff in the initial stage, it unnecessarily makes USCIS think, that there is a problem and complicates matters.

Thanks for posting Nishant, gives good idea and sets expectations.
My folks are still waking up and i cna only push them so much. i said to them we have only 12/31 to file right? so they said "ya but if it advances we can file till jan 31 " :( not something i m looking forward to. Anyways things ahave moved sofar so no complaints.

Anyways, i had a question for gurus once we file and get WAD and say are waiting for GC and in the mean time someone loses his/her job...how does USCIS know? wont the person get GC eventually?EAD can help get employed legally btu i dont think we can stay here on EAD right?

[self.coach]

Intentionally posting this here instead of the dedicated thread, so who is not tracking that thread knows - guys tomorrow there is voting for HR 3012 in the senate. The dedicated thread (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?211-Discussion-of-Bills-that-remove-the-Per-Country-Limits-H.R.2161-H.R.3012-H.R.3119/page23&highlight=3012)will be more active starting tomorrow afternoon, I expect.

[longgcque]

To the best of my knowledge, Voting is in Congress and not in Senate.

Feel free to shift this post to its right location.


Intentionally posting this here instead of the dedicated thread, so who is not tracking that thread knows - guys tomorrow there is voting for HR 3012 in the senate. The dedicated thread (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?211-Discussion-of-Bills-that-remove-the-Per-Country-Limits-H.R.2161-H.R.3012-H.R.3119/page23&highlight=3012)will be more active starting tomorrow afternoon, I expect.

[nishant2200]

WAD : Working as Designed
:)
I am sure you meant EAD

That's a good question, I myself have wondered about it at times. I feel that if you get lucky like this, only problems I see may happen during citizenship or during next GC renewal 10 years later, as indeed, you were out of status and not eligible for GC I believe, because you lost your job before the 180 days of filing for GC, you did not obtain GC till then, and even after 180 days, I think you need to be on same or similar job, you can't just go jobless.

Thanks for posting Nishant, gives good idea and sets expectations.
My folks are still waking up and i cna only push them so much. i said to them we have only 12/31 to file right? so they said "ya but if it advances we can file till jan 31 " :( not something i m looking forward to. Anyways things ahave moved sofar so no complaints.

Anyways, i had a question for gurus once we file and get WAD and say are waiting for GC and in the mean time someone loses his/her job...how does USCIS know? wont the person get GC eventually?EAD can help get employed legally btu i dont think we can stay here on EAD right?

[self.coach]

You may be correct - thanks. It is House of Representative (I guess thats what HR stands for now), which is probably Congress. A more accurate term to use is the House, because 2011-2012 is the 112th Congress, under which there are House Bills and Senate Bills that get passed. House bills start with H (as in HR, HJRes, HConRes, HRes) while Senate bills start with S (S, SJRes, SConRes, SRes)..by the way while researching for this, I could not avoid looking into HR 3013, and found it very interesting.



To the best of my knowledge, Voting is in Congress and not in Senate.

Feel free to shift this post to its right location.

[zenmaster]

by the way while researching for this, I could not avoid looking into HR 3013, and found it very interesting.

lol. indeed interesting ;)

[imdeng]

Once a GC is approved for you - you have the freedom to be jobless. It is usually recommended to stay in the same job that gave you the GC for 180 days at least - so that the impression of a fraudulent GC is not raised. However, even cases of people leaving job immediately after getting GC have sailed through the citizenship process. I am not even sure whether one would be out of status if one leaves a job after filing 485 and getting EAD - the only concern is that if you get an RFE for something like EVL then one would be in trouble.



That's a good question, I myself have wondered about it at times. I feel that if you get lucky like this, only problems I see may happen during citizenship or during next GC renewal 10 years later, as indeed, you were out of status and not eligible for GC I believe, because you lost your job before the 180 days of filing for GC, you did not obtain GC till then, and even after 180 days, I think you need to be on same or similar job, you can't just go jobless.

[vchirakala]

The prediction for the next bulletin is purely based the fact that the Sofad for 2012 maybe around 25k. With the current intakes there is some buffer so if CO wants more buffer then he will go for more intake, if he feels it’s sufficient it might be time to retrogress. In either case if the movement is guarded or dates retrogress we can logically expect the same cycle to occur every year Oct - Dec. however atleast for next month there will be another factor the HR 3012 factor if the bill passes the house and is likely to pass in the senate then I believe forward movement will not stop itself.

Hi Teddy,

My PD is Apr 18th 2008. Looks like according to your analysis the dates will retrogress or stay intact in the next bulletin. So I dont think mine will become current anytime soon :-(.

[SaturnRing]

Vchirakala, Teddy said 50% chance, and if the 3012 bill passes house today, then I do feel that we have more than 75 % chance, so hang on tight :)

[kingjeremy]

Dear Q / Nishant / Other Gurus - I have been following your forum for a long time, not a contributor because my skills / knowledge is still not at the level of some of you guys. Please do not ignore this post. I am in a mess right now and any advice / guidance will be helpful.
I had a valid US H1-B visa stamped in my passport through Feb 2012 and I came to India for an extention for my new 797 which is valid through Nov 2014. However, the Chennai consulate accidentally seems to have given me a new stamp based on the old 797. As a result, I have two valid visas through Feb 2012. I have emailed VFS this morning with the documents, etc but have not received a reply. I had a flight to go to Bahrain to see my inlaws which I will have to cancel. Technically, I can reenter the US based on my visa stamps (since its valid through Feb 2012), but the problem is that I have misplaced my original 797. I have sent an email to Fragomen (my company's immigration lawyers) but likely won't get a response from them for another day. Do you know what I should be doing in this situation? My return flight to New York is on Nov 27 (Sunday) and unfortunately the Consulates here are closed for thanksgiving. My best bet will be for Chennai consulate to correct this matter and issue me a new stamp. BUt if they are not able to do it timely, I will have to fly back on my old stamp, but in that case, will I be granted entry into the US based on a copy of my old 797 (since my original is lost?).
Any help / advise will be much appreciated.

Kind regards,
Adi

Friends - thought I'll post the resolution.

Sent my passport and pertinent documents via VFS Mumbai on Monday morning. On Friday morning got an email saying my passport was ready and would be couriered. Received the passport on Saturday afternoon (note, consulate was closed for a day). The new visa stamp reflected both 797s.

Reached New York Monday morning and guess what - the immigration officer did not even look at my 797(s). He saw my visa stamp, asked me where I worked, and stamped my visa and i-94. So all worked well in the end.

Thank you all for your responses.

Adi

[ivaarz]

I would say you have more than 50% chance of getting current.

If HR3012 passes, make it 100% and there are very good chances of it being passed in the house today. Do your bit and donate at ** to help it pass in senate. Help ** to help you and your family!


Hi Teddy,

My PD is Apr 18th 2008. Looks like according to your analysis the dates will retrogress or stay intact in the next bulletin. So I dont think mine will become current anytime soon :-(.

[ivaarz]

I have been researching this in the last few days and here is what I found
1. If you stay in the firm but do not get GC within 180 days, then you can change jobs using AC21 and all is smooth.
2. If something happens before 180 days and you do not get GC, you need to get a similar job ASAP and file for AC21 after 180 days
3. I am not sure what happens if something happens before 180 days and you get GC within 180 days. A lot also depends on if your employer revokes I-140 too.

Gald to be corrected if I am wrong above.

Also, I don't understand when the 180 day safe-zone rule starts from. Is it from the time you apply for 485 or does it start from the time you get GC?





Once a GC is approved for you - you have the freedom to be jobless. It is usually recommended to stay in the same job that gave you the GC for 180 days at least - so that the impression of a fraudulent GC is not raised. However, even cases of people leaving job immediately after getting GC have sailed through the citizenship process. I am not even sure whether one would be out of status if one leaves a job after filing 485 and getting EAD - the only concern is that if you get an RFE for something like EVL then one would be in trouble.

[Pdmar08]

To the best of my knowledge, Voting is in Congress and not in Senate.

Feel free to shift this post to its right location.
I believe its in the morning in the house where its expected to pass.
I think the senate votes on it at 6pm today(trying to get the article link). I have read somewhere it needs 100% vote in senate is it true? Can even one senetor derail the bills passage?

[Pdmar08]

[on my question about job loss after applying for AOS]
Thank you all for your responses. If we get further clarity on this it will be good.
I really hope no one gets in to this situation, just good to know what to look out for in the next 6 months.

[imdeng]

There is only one vote today - after 6:30PM today in the House. There is no vote scheduled in Senate. HR-3012 can not be voted in the Senate until it passes the house. Senate can vote on the senate companion bill S-1857 - but that bill is in the Senate Judicial Committee and will only be voted once the committee finishes with the bill.

For a bill to pass in House today, a two-third majority is needed since the bill will be voted under suspension of rules. When it comes to vote in Senate it will need just a simple majority (51 votes), although it is usually best to have a filibuster-proof majority (60 votes). It is not correct that one single Senator can derail the bill - it just looks like that sometime when there is a filibuster - but that situation does not arise if there are 60 senators in support.


I believe its in the morning in the house where its expected to pass.
I think the senate votes on it at 6pm today(trying to get the article link). I have read somewhere it needs 100% vote in senate is it true? Can even one senetor derail the bills passage?

[self.coach]

Download Android app by Sunlight Foundation for real time updates regarding HR 3012. This app is called "Congress" in the Android Marketplace. Bill information is provided by GovTrack through the Library of Congress. As per the latest update on this app, HR 3012 will be voted at 6.30PM - I had to rely on it since my work does not allow accessing specific sites including cspan video as its part of news/media.

[Archer]

Hello Gurus,
this is quite an information. I have been reading this for some days and it is helping a lot.
can some one answer (predict with vast knowledge) my question
Is there a chance of getting CO date for sep19th in next couple of months for India
What are the changes of retrogression before EB2 for india 19th sep getting current.
Thanks all for all the valuable information.

[vizcard]

unlikely that Sept 19, 2008 will be current. Almost guaranteed that there will be retrogression before that.

[Archer]

thanks VIZCARD for your views.
is there any prediction when can sep 19th be current?

[vizcard]

thanks VIZCARD for your views.
is there any prediction when can sep 19th be current?

Without HR 3012, I imagine sometime between Oct - Dec 2012. Anything sooner will be completely unexpected (and awesome!). I'm a month before you so I'm pretty much in the same boat.

[DonDron]

Friends - thought I'll post the resolution.

Sent my passport and pertinent documents via VFS Mumbai on Monday morning. On Friday morning got an email saying my passport was ready and would be couriered. Received the passport on Saturday afternoon (note, consulate was closed for a day). The new visa stamp reflected both 797s.

Reached New York Monday morning and guess what - the immigration officer did not even look at my 797(s). He saw my visa stamp, asked me where I worked, and stamped my visa and i-94. So all worked well in the end.

Thank you all for your responses.

Adi

King,

For what did you send passport to VFS? was it H1B stamping or something else? Sorry it is not clear to me and it would help if you can clarify.

[scion78]

H.R. 3012 - Passed!

[mesan123]

Congrats on you H1b stamping Adi....


Friends - thought I'll post the resolution.

Sent my passport and pertinent documents via VFS Mumbai on Monday morning. On Friday morning got an email saying my passport was ready and would be couriered. Received the passport on Saturday afternoon (note, consulate was closed for a day). The new visa stamp reflected both 797s.

Reached New York Monday morning and guess what - the immigration officer did not even look at my 797(s). He saw my visa stamp, asked me where I worked, and stamped my visa and i-94. So all worked well in the end.

Thank you all for your responses.

Adi

[PD-02-03-2009]

Hi Gurus,
My priority date is Feb 3, 2009 any predictions when it will be current.

Thanks,

[jss1234]

I have been silently following this blog since the whole prediction thing was started by Q on **. In between, Q stopped posting on ** and I searched a lot and finally found this site. I love this blog. This is the most neatest blog I have ever seen and been managed so well by all the moderators and contributors. Kudos to everyone. My two cents.

[Pedro Gonzales]

Its great to know that the HR3012 bill passed with such a great majority, But I feel there are much bigger hurdles ahead. I think that there is every possibility that this bill may face a totally different challenge with the senate. It is not necessary that a bill passed in the house will also pass with the senate, it might very well go undebated and silent considering other priorities. The senate may have a very different view about it. Remember ROW may oppose our favorable view on this bill with which only IC people would see a marginal benefit, and mostly ROW here in US means EU fellows who always gain hidden favorism here. Also as IC people are benefited with spillover, how substantial this bill will benefit IC people? I am not projecting this view from a pessimistic view but wants to see from a pragmatic perspective, so please be easy on your thoughts or correct me where-ever I am wrong. But sure it is an interim time for cheers.
On how much of an impact the bill would have on EB2Ic just consider this, with 34K visa numbers providedin FY2012, it would equate to 28.4K of spillover. Next 2 years it would equate to 31.4K of spillover. And that excludes fall down from EB1, 4 & 5.

[qesehmk]

I have been silently following this blog since the whole prediction thing was started by Q on **. In between, Q stopped posting on ** and I searched a lot and finally found this site. I love this blog. This is the most neatest blog I have ever seen and been managed so well by all the moderators and contributors. Kudos to everyone. My two cents.
jss, thank you for your kind words. It does give us an idea that we are doing something right and useful and motivates us to do it further.


Is it fair to assume that if this bill is cleared by the Senate, EB2-I/C PDs might will move even further than what we are expecting now? What will then be the common PDs for all EB2 folks; will it be somewhere around 2009? I think EB3-I PDs will also move past 2002 but the progress of EB3-ROW will slow down significantly.
Absolutely. The EB2IC dates will dramatically move by at least 1 more year from the time the law becomes effective. e.g. if it is passed before end of this year and teh law were effective 1 Jan 2012, then expect the dates to move to at least end of 2008 during 2012 itself. In fact the dates will move very very significantly beyond that and then retrogress to end of 2008 if this becomes an effective law as of 1st Jan 2012.


H R 3012 - FINAL VOTE RESULTS FOR ROLL CALL 860

29-Nov-2011******6:56 PM

******QUESTION:**On Motion to Suspend the Rules and Pass, as Amended
******BILL TITLE:*Fairness for High Skilled Immigrants Act

************* Yeas *** Nays ***NV ( Not Voting)
Republican****** 210**** 13***** 18
Democratic******179**** 02***** 11
Independent*****
TOTALS******** 389**** 15***** 29
Looking at these numbers, it almost looks like certainty that this will actually become a law.

[SaturnRing]

Hello Gurus,

From the trackitt trends, EB1 and EB2Row which were stalling was starting to get approved. Do you think HR 3012 passing in house will again stall EB2Row ??? Since CO might not want to exceed 15% in approving EB2Row ?!

Or do you think EB2 Row has not met 15% limit yet this yr ? Whats ur take ?

Also what do you think will be movement in next month's bulletin for EB2I ?

[nishant2200]

As per calculations by experts on projected SOFAD and incoming density, he has about enough. Next is for more buffer or if there is more SOFAD projection/less density incoming perceived by CO.

I dont think they will stall row due to hr3012. However, it passing in the house leads me to think CO will buy time and do at least 2 months movement, he can afford to do this in Jan VB. next DD if still very low, shall give him great wiggle room.


Hello Gurus,

From the trackitt trends, EB1 and EB2Row which were stalling was starting to get approved. Do you think HR 3012 passing in house will again stall EB2Row ??? Since CO might not want to exceed 15% in approving EB2Row ?!

Or do you think EB2 Row has not met 15% limit yet this yr ? Whats ur take ?

Also what do you think will be movement in next month's bulletin for EB2I ?

[TheTexan]

Do all gurus agree that next bulletin would have 2 months movement only i.e. May 2008?

[Pedro Gonzales]

H.R. 3012 - Passed!

I moved all the HR3012/S1857 discussions (except those related to PD movement) to the advocacy thread. Hope y'all don't mind joining the conversation there.
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?211-Discussion-of-Bills-that-remove-the-Per-Country-Limits-H.R.2161-H.R.3012-H.R.3119

[bieber]

As per calculations by experts on projected SOFAD and incoming density, he has about enough. Next is for more buffer or if there is more SOFAD projection/less density incoming perceived by CO.

I dont think they will stall row due to hr3012. However, it passing in the house leads me to think CO will buy time and do at least 2 months movement, he can afford to do this in Jan VB. next DD if still very low, shall give him great wiggle room.

Nishanth,

If there is going to be movement in next bulletin, isn't it supposed to be longer than 2 months, DOS/CIS might have received enough applications to be used in this fy but presently the demand data for next month will not have any of that demand, so the movement will be solely aimed to get demand from CP cases and in that case 2 months doesn't make much sense.

Remember, after September bulletin, the consensus on our forum was PDs will end up in 2007 by sept2012, that may still be the case but my point is the movement in next one or two bulletins is not dependent upon 'number of receipts', I think it depends on the real demand

[soggadu]

guru's, guys and gals...

please answer this question for me...

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?275-H1B-extension-after-6-years&p=14860#post14860

[kd2008]

EB1 approvals are coming fast and furious on trackitt. The bulk of pending cases are from EB1C with India taking an unusually large share in that compared to FY 2010.

[Jonty Rhodes]

Q, is there any news about qblogfan?

He has been completely out of sight since he became current.

We all are worried about what is he up to and what is going on with him.

He was talking about some issues with his employer for filing I-485 after he became current. That was the time, when he last heard from him. He is nowhere to be seen from that point.

Is there any way to contact him? :confused:

[mesan123]

yeap you are right. i hope everything is fine at his end

Q, is there any news about qblogfan?

He has been completely out of sight since he became current.

We all are worried about what is he up to and what is going on with him.

He was talking about some issues with his employer for filing I-485 after he became current. That was the time, when he last heard from him. He is nowhere to be seen from that point.

Is there any way to contact him? :confused:

[iamdeb]

Ya I hope QBlog is ready to file for I485 on 1st Dec. Congratulations and best of luck for all those becoming current tomorrow. Special wishes for one of our dearest Gurus Nishant2200. Nishant, I hope you get the GC soon and continue to participate actively in this forum. Your posts have been insightful,valuable and source of inspiration to many of the new folks here.

Cheers,
Deb

[veni001]

guru's, guys and gals...

please answer this question for me...

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?275-H1B-extension-after-6-years&p=14860#post14860

soggadu,

Answered.

[qesehmk]

No idea. Poor guy was so close to filing when his job came into trouble.

Q, is there any news about qblogfan?

He has been completely out of sight since he became current.

We all are worried about what is he up to and what is going on with him.

He was talking about some issues with his employer for filing I-485 after he became current. That was the time, when he last heard from him. He is nowhere to be seen from that point.

Is there any way to contact him? :confused:

[qblogfan]

Thanks guys! Thanks for asking!

My boss and the CEO went to the meeting with my client. It looks like the project will continue for at least two or three months, but I am not sure whether this company can last for more than several months.

I have kept asking the CEO to file 485 for me, but he didn't give me a clear answer yet. He has delayed my PERM for two years last time. I am not sure how long he will delay this time. Tomorrow is Dec.1st, but the CEO didn't give me an answer yet! It's so much pain to work with these kind of managment people! They know I will leave soon after 485, so they are trying to postpone it as much as they can. Also I guess they are not sure whether this office can continue or not, maybe they don't want to waste the 4k-5k money on me. It's very evil, but I can't do much!

One side note about my thoughts on HR 3012: Because of the possible new HR3012 law, EB2 ROW are scared now. They will rush into the system in the coming 2 or 3 months. The EB2 ROW consumption may go up dramatically.Nobody wants to wait for 2 more years for nothing. The impact of this event is that Mr.CO may stop the VB movement when he sees the surge of EB2 ROW. He will move the VB again once HR 3012 becomes a law. It is just my wild guess. Gurus, please input some on this thought!


No idea. Poor guy was so close to filing when his job came into trouble.

[natvyas]

Thanks guys! Thanks for asking!

My boss and the CEO went to the meeting with my client. It looks like the project will continue for at least two or three months, but I am not sure whether this company can last for more than several months.

I have kept asking the CEO to file 485 for me, but he didn't give me a clear answer yet. He has delayed my PERM for two years last time. I am not sure how long he will delay this time. Tomorrow is Dec.1st, but the CEO didn't give me an answer yet! It's so much pain to work with these kind of managment people! They know I will leave soon after 485, so they are trying to postpone it as much as they can. Also I guess they are not sure whether this office can continue or not, maybe they don't want to waste the 4k-5k money on me. It's very evil, but I can't do much!

One side note about my thoughts on HR 3012: Because of the possible new HR3012 law, EB2 ROW are scared now. They will rush into the system in the coming 2 or 3 months. The EB2 ROW consumption may go up dramatically.Nobody wants to wait for 2 more years for nothing. The impact of this event is that Mr.CO may stop the VB movement when he sees the surge of EB2 ROW. He will move the VB again once HR 3012 becomes a law. It is just my wild guess. Gurus, please input some on this thought!

I have the same suspicion that there will no movement this VB. cant back it up with facts

[vizcard]

I have the same suspicion that there will no movement this VB. cant back it up with facts

There are no facts or trends that we can point to in any thing that has happened this FY. However, I will point out this. Applications may not show up as "demand" immediately. Without that information, CO will just be going by gut feel and that's fine too. But if he is looking at Demand data, ROW applications won't show up immediately. That's why I think the Jan VB will see forward movement to the tune of 2 months or so.

Beyond that, there are 3 potential ways it'll go depending on the outcome of 3012.
If it passes - significant forward movement.
If it fails - Stall or more likely Retrogression
If decision pending - Stall.

[Feb262009]

Hi Qblogfan,
many times many have told you that you can file 485 without the help from your employer. Do you hear it? You DO NOT NEED YOUR EMPLOYER TO FILE 485. Find an attorney and you do it.


Thanks guys! Thanks for asking!

I have kept asking the CEO to file 485 for me, but he didn't give me a clear answer yet. He has delayed my PERM for two years last time. I am not sure how long he will delay this time. Tomorrow is Dec.1st, but the CEO didn't give me an answer yet! ....but I can't do much!

[TeddyKoochu]

I have the same suspicion that there will no movement this VB. cant back it up with facts

Here are my thoughts about the next VB. I just updated the header of the thread as well. Previously I had missed the 3.5K PWMB. As many people have pointed out EB1 usage is higher (Trackitt shows very high EB1C) however EB2 ROW is lower, I believe if EB1 gives 10K less EB2 ROW may give 5K more so this makes it 25K. Assuming a 10K loss maybe too drastic for now.

Next VB (Jan 2012) in all probability will be the final intake if HR-3012 does not go through.
Possibility 50% - 2 months of additional intake to move to 15th MAY to 01-JUN-2008 (This is purely if CO feels additional Intake is required, this scenario is possible if CO is projecting 30K SOFAD in that case he only has 2K buffer may need more).
Possibility 50% - Dates retrogress back, this would mean 16.5K Sofad now has to be adjusted in 8 bulletins; this may mean that the dates go back to somewhere Jun 2007 for the first batch.

The prediction for the next bulletin is purely based the fact that the Sofad for 2012 maybe around 25k. With the current intakes there is a 7K buffer so if CO wants more buffer then he will go for more intake, if he feels it’s sufficient it might be time to retrogress. In either case if the movement is guarded or dates retrogress we can logically expect the same cycle to occur every year Oct - Dec. however atleast for next month there will be another factor the HR 3012 factor based on likelihood of passage in the senate then I believe forward movement will not stop itself.

The 7K buffer is calculated as - 8.5K (Approved) + 3.5K (PWMB APR 15 - JUL 15) + 20K (@2500 PM Intake for 8 Months) - 25K (SOFAD) If HR 3012 becomes the law of the land then EB2 I/C date will reach 01-JAN-2010 by the end of FY 2012.

[natvyas]

I dont think the HR3012 would have any affect on the Jan VB. The CO would not take that into consideration while deciding on the date because there a lot of "ifs and buts" involved as far as HR3012 is concerned. Every year there are numerous employment based bills introduced and in the last decade hardly anyone of those have turned into law.

[TeddyKoochu]

Thanks guys! Thanks for asking!

My boss and the CEO went to the meeting with my client. It looks like the project will continue for at least two or three months, but I am not sure whether this company can last for more than several months.

I have kept asking the CEO to file 485 for me, but he didn't give me a clear answer yet. He has delayed my PERM for two years last time. I am not sure how long he will delay this time. Tomorrow is Dec.1st, but the CEO didn't give me an answer yet! It's so much pain to work with these kind of managment people! They know I will leave soon after 485, so they are trying to postpone it as much as they can. Also I guess they are not sure whether this office can continue or not, maybe they don't want to waste the 4k-5k money on me. It's very evil, but I can't do much!

One side note about my thoughts on HR 3012: Because of the possible new HR3012 law, EB2 ROW are scared now. They will rush into the system in the coming 2 or 3 months. The EB2 ROW consumption may go up dramatically.Nobody wants to wait for 2 more years for nothing. The impact of this event is that Mr.CO may stop the VB movement when he sees the surge of EB2 ROW. He will move the VB again once HR 3012 becomes a law. It is just my wild guess. Gurus, please input some on this thought!

Qblogfan, let your employer know that you will be bearing all expenses for I485 filing. Its completely legal for the employee to bear the I485 expenses, this way he just has to provide you a EVL. I my case the attorney advised my company not to give a EVL as he submitted a covering letter saying that the EVL at the time of I140 is still valid and proved by various means like recent paystubs, tax returns that I have been working with the same company ever since, I think that’s your case as well. This way I feel there should be no hurdle in your filing, I485 is your own application and belongs to you unlike labor & I140 which belong to the employer.

[veni001]

In most cases the law will not come into effect immediately after president's signature!

The Legislative Process – How a Bill Becomes a Law (http://www.murthy.com/news/UDlegpro.html)

[vizcard]

In most cases the law will not come into effect immediately after president's signature!

The Legislative Process – How a Bill Becomes a Law (http://www.murthy.com/news/UDlegpro.html)

When the President signs it immediately becomes law. It is assigned an Act #. The effective date can be retro-active, immediate or future dated.

[sreddy]

That's a great advise Teddy. It makes sense in a case where you don't know if your company can survive or not. What if compay doesn't survive more than 2-3 months after 485 filing? Also do we know how long is it taking to get EAD after applying 485 these days?
Qblogfan, let your employer know that you will be bearing all expenses for I485 filing. Its completely legal for the employee to bear the I485 expenses, this way he just has to provide you a EVL. I my case the attorney advised my company not to give a EVL as he submitted a covering letter saying that the EVL at the time of I140 is still valid and proved by various means like recent paystubs, tax returns that I have been working with the same company ever since, I think that’s your case as well. This way I feel there should be no hurdle in your filing, I485 is your own application and belongs to you unlike labor & I140 which belong to the employer.

[veni001]

FY-2011 AOS Data Published (http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources/Reports%20and%20Studies/Immigration%20Forms%20Data/All%20Form%20Types/AllFormTypes_PerformanceData_FY11.pdf)

AOS (485): EB1-5
Total EB-485 Receipts: 78,302
Total EB-485 Approved: 123,305
EB - AOS % = ~ 88.0 %
EB - CP % = ~ 12.0 %

I-140: EB1-3
Total i-140 Receipts: 81,678
Total i-140 Completions: 91,418
Total i-140 Approvals: 81,281
Total i-140 Denials =10,137 (11.08%)

EB4 (I-360):
Total i-360 Receipts: 18,767
Total i-360 Completions: 15,748
Total i-360 Approvals: 12,173
Total i-360 Denials: 3,575 (22.7%)

EB5(I-526):
Total i-526 Receipts: 3,805
Total i-526 Completions: 1,943
Total i-526 Approvals: 1,571
Total i-526 Denials: 372 (19.14%)

[vizcard]

[QUOTE=veni001;14924]FY-2011 AOS Data Published (http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources/Reports%20and%20Studies/Immigration%20Forms%20Data/All%20Form%20Types/AllFormTypes_PerformanceData_FY11.pdf)

Total EB-485 Approved: [B]123,305
[QUOTE]

What does this mean ? Were 16.7K visas wasted ?

[feedmyback]

No I believe the remaining were CP (Consular Processing) as mentioned.... Veni, pls correct me if I am wrong...


[QUOTE=veni001;14924]FY-2011 AOS Data Published (http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources/Reports%20and%20Studies/Immigration%20Forms%20Data/All%20Form%20Types/AllFormTypes_PerformanceData_FY11.pdf)

Total EB-485 Approved: [B]123,305
[QUOTE]

What does this mean ? Were 16.7K visas wasted ?

[visagcinfo]

qbf:
All you need to do is find a good lawyer, and then follow his/her instructions to file 485. All you need from your employer is Employment Verification Letter - if your employer is not giving it, your lawyer would have a workaround to handle that situation and still file 485 - workaround may not be as good as using the Employment Verification Letter, but you don't have an option.
Many people told you on this forum to find a lawyer first and not to ask your employer.
Don't waste a single minute after this. It may take up to 2-3 weeks to finish the medicals unless you get quick appointments with USCIS approved civil surgeon and whoever is giving you required vaccinations.



Thanks guys! Thanks for asking!

My boss and the CEO went to the meeting with my client. It looks like the project will continue for at least two or three months, but I am not sure whether this company can last for more than several months.

I have kept asking the CEO to file 485 for me, but he didn't give me a clear answer yet. He has delayed my PERM for two years last time. I am not sure how long he will delay this time. Tomorrow is Dec.1st, but the CEO didn't give me an answer yet! It's so much pain to work with these kind of managment people! They know I will leave soon after 485, so they are trying to postpone it as much as they can. Also I guess they are not sure whether this office can continue or not, maybe they don't want to waste the 4k-5k money on me. It's very evil, but I can't do much!

One side note about my thoughts on HR 3012: Because of the possible new HR3012 law, EB2 ROW are scared now. They will rush into the system in the coming 2 or 3 months. The EB2 ROW consumption may go up dramatically.Nobody wants to wait for 2 more years for nothing. The impact of this event is that Mr.CO may stop the VB movement when he sees the surge of EB2 ROW. He will move the VB again once HR 3012 becomes a law. It is just my wild guess. Gurus, please input some on this thought!

[veni001]

No I believe the remaining were CP (Consular Processing) as mentioned.... Veni, pls correct me if I am wrong...

[QUOTE=vizcard;14927][QUOTE=veni001;14924]FY-2011 AOS Data Published (http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources/Reports%20and%20Studies/Immigration%20Forms%20Data/All%20Form%20Types/AllFormTypes_PerformanceData_FY11.pdf)

Total EB-485 Approved: [B]123,305

That's correct.

[qesehmk]

That is correct as Veni said.

A quick calculation of receipts shows ~80K receipts which are nothing but EB1+EB2ROW+visible portings (3K). Assuming EB1 EB2ROW backlog remained same from Oct 2010 to Oct 2011, the MAX net SOFAD comes to about

140 - (80K+EB4+EB5) = 140 -(80+ ~11 + ~3) = 46K.

This by itself was sufficient to clear the entire EB2IC backlog. But clearly that didn't happen in 2011. So we should've expected to see EB1+EB2ROW backlog in Oct 2011 to be much lower compared to Oct 2010 inventory and/OR visa wastage. There is hardly any wastage since 123K in total were allocated in 485 and probably 17K in CP. So where is this 46K?

Possibility is that the 270K allocated to FB category is 44K more than that categories limit. So again .... visas might have been allocated to FB from EB under the pretext that certain countries have less than 7% demand when seen across categories. Just a thought...

We will know better when DHS data by country is published end of December.

No I believe the remaining were CP (Consular Processing) as mentioned.... Veni, pls correct me if I am wrong...



FY-2011 AOS Data Published (http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources/Reports%20and%20Studies/Immigration%20Forms%20Data/All%20Form%20Types/AllFormTypes_PerformanceData_FY11.pdf)

Total EB-485 Approved: [B]123,305

[imdeng]

Q - this would be scandalous if true. There is clearly enough demand within EB as a whole - so the question of any rollover to FB does not arise. SOFADs don't follow country quota - so there should not be any rollover from EB to FB despite the 7% rule. It would NOT be legal. OTOH - we all know that USCIS/DoS have never really been bound by rules that they did not wish to follow - so anything is possible.


Possibility is that the 270K allocated to FB category is 44K more than that categories limit. So again .... visas might have been allocated to FB from EB under the pretext that certain countries have less than 7% demand when seen across categories. Just a thought...

[devi_pd]

I think 270K includes immediate relative petitions as well. But the number of I-485 receipts is small compared to the annual quota. I don't understand why the backlog is not getting cleared.

[self.coach]

I agree, if not EB2 then atleast EB3 - why the heck should they rollover to FB? Simply not fair to us especially our EB3 brothers. Scandalous is the right word...
Q - this would be scandalous if true. There is clearly enough demand within EB as a whole - so the question of any rollover to FB does not arise. SOFADs don't follow country quota - so there should not be any rollover from EB to FB despite the 7% rule. It would NOT be legal. OTOH - we all know that USCIS/DoS have never really been bound by rules that they did not wish to follow - so anything is possible.

[qesehmk]

You can see in that report that 270 excludes immediate relatives as well as spouses.
I think 270K includes immediate relative petitions as well. But the number of I-485 receipts is small compared to the annual quota. I don't understand why the backlog is not getting cleared.

[shaumack]

That is correct as Veni said.

A quick calculation of receipts shows ~80K receipts which are nothing but EB1+EB2ROW+visible portings (3K). Assuming EB1 EB2ROW backlog remained same from Oct 2010 to Oct 2011, the MAX net SOFAD comes to about

140 - (80K+EB4+EB5) = 140 -(80+ ~11 + ~3) = 46K.

This by itself was sufficient to clear the entire EB2IC backlog. But clearly that didn't happen in 2011. So we should've expected to see EB1+EB2ROW backlog in Oct 2011 to be much lower compared to Oct 2010 inventory and/OR visa wastage. There is hardly any wastage since 123K in total were allocated in 485 and probably 17K in CP. So where is this 46K?

Possibility is that the 270K allocated to FB category is 44K more than that categories limit. So again .... visas might have been allocated to FB from EB under the pretext that certain countries have less than 7% demand when seen across categories. Just a thought...

We will know better when DHS data by country is published end of December.

I think in your calculations above you need to consider USCIS Approvals only which are 123K and not 140K

So, 123K - (80K+EB4+EB5) = 123 -(80+ ~11 + ~3) = 29K. Right in line with what was expected for SOFAD.

Other 17K is CP and they will be there regardless if we assume nothing is used by EB2I . Most of these are usually used by EB3-C-P-ROW and EB2-ROW; and make big chunk for CP cases.

[qesehmk]

Very good thinking. I am not very sure. But that actually makes a lot sense. Question is how would you think about 270K family approvals vs 226K quota.


I think in your calculations above you need to consider USCIS Approvals only which are 123K and not 140K

So, 123K - (80K+EB4+EB5) = 123 -(80+ ~11 + ~3) = 29K. Right in line with what was expected for SOFAD.

Other 17K is CP and they will be there regardless if we assume nothing is used by EB2I . Most of these are usually used by EB3-C-P-ROW and EB2-ROW; and make big chunk for CP cases.

[shaumack]

Very good thinking. I am not very sure. But that actually makes a lot sense. Question is how would you think about 270K family approvals vs 226K quota.

Q as per USCIS (http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/uscis/menuitem.eb1d4c2a3e5b9ac89243c6a7543f6d1a/?vgnextoid=9c8aa6c515083210VgnVCM100000082ca60aRCR D&vgnextchannel=9c8aa6c515083210VgnVCM100000082ca60a RCRD), it seems like everyone has to go through I-130 and I-485 regardless if you are immediate relative or not. I-485 is only for those who are in US & I-130 is analogus to I-140 as an immigrant petition that every one will file. So those additional numbers can be from immediate relatives not counted towards quota. 44K is a big number to over-allocate. That's my theory so far and we will know more from DHS data that will be released later in the month.

[devi_pd]

I think the 80K receipts do not include EB3, EB4 or EB5. All countries in EB3 are backlogged so there will not be any new I-485 receipts. I expect EB4 and EB5 applicants to go for CP because they can come to the US only on a visitor visa prior to applying for I-485. This means we have 80K receipts from EB1 and EB2ROW which is pretty scary.

[Spectator]

Very good thinking. I am not very sure. But that actually makes a lot sense. Question is how would you think about 270K family approvals vs 226K quota.Q,

If you think about it, the I-485 Family Adjustment figures in the USCIS Report are just plain odd and must represent something different.

Very few FB cases are dealt with by USCIS via I-485. In FY2010 they amounted to 26,084 cases or 11.5% of all FB cases approved under the allocation of 226k. The majority of FB cases are dealt with by DOS through Consular Processing and would not appear in the USCIS report.

I don't know what the answer is, but I would not take the figures at face value and conclude that 270k FB I-485 approvals took place in FY2011 (at least not in the sense we mean). It doesn't pass the reasonableness test.

PS Looking at the DHS figures for FY2010

----------------------------------------- Total ---- AOS ------ CP
Immediate relatives of U.S. citizens -- 476,414 -- 252,842 -- 223,572

so Immediate Relative AOS and Numerically Limited FB AOS would have totalled 279,121 in FY2010.

The figure of 270,170 for FY2011 might then make more sense, especially as IR still have to submit an I-485 and have it approved to adjust status within the USA.

[bieber]

Visa bulletin page is updated with Jan 2012 (Coming Soon)

[vizcard]

Visa bulletin page is updated with Jan 2012 (Coming Soon)

It'll probably be 8th or 9th. Worst case 12th.

[vchirakala]

Is that a good sign or bad sign :-(

[bieber]

It'll probably be 8th or 9th. Worst case 12th.

yes, may be 8/9

vchirakala, it's no sign, happened same in November (for December bulletin)

[nishant2200]

bieber, January marks the beginning of a new Quarter. The Q1 QSP business I believe by the time Jan VB is decided, would be completely dealt with by CO.

In Demand data, CO indicates that the demand data does not reflect the quantum of new applicants who constantly become eligible for categories to whom cut off date is not applying. We are seeing a surge of approvals in these people we all agree (EB1, EB2 ROW approvals, especially EB1).

I don't think that the demand data hard numbers are the only data point which CO would use to justify a VB. And I said at least two months especially looking at HR 3012 approved in House, I did not say only two months. I do believe in giving some weight to the NVC fee bills too, and hence further bolsters. If DD remains low, it definitely works to advantage as a positive point, but just because its low, CO would move a lot, that we cannot take for granted.


Nishanth,

If there is going to be movement in next bulletin, isn't it supposed to be longer than 2 months, DOS/CIS might have received enough applications to be used in this fy but presently the demand data for next month will not have any of that demand, so the movement will be solely aimed to get demand from CP cases and in that case 2 months doesn't make much sense.

Remember, after September bulletin, the consensus on our forum was PDs will end up in 2007 by sept2012, that may still be the case but my point is the movement in next one or two bulletins is not dependent upon 'number of receipts', I think it depends on the real demand

[nishant2200]

thanks Deb. Work has been very heavy this month, murphy's law, when I needed time most to focus on my 485 thing, work became exponentially higher. I ran around, did everything, submitted it, and lawyer has overnighted it on 11/30, so it must have reached today 12/1.

fingers crossed! or as sogaddu would say, legs crossed!

Per lawyer, 10 business days around to be expected before we get receipts. In between that checks should be encashed.

I asked him about his feelings about further date movement or retrogression, and he had no input on that. He did say though that when current, should not lose the opportunity to file, as you never know when they change dates.

Ya I hope QBlog is ready to file for I485 on 1st Dec. Congratulations and best of luck for all those becoming current tomorrow. Special wishes for one of our dearest Gurus Nishant2200. Nishant, I hope you get the GC soon and continue to participate actively in this forum. Your posts have been insightful,valuable and source of inspiration to many of the new folks here.

Cheers,
Deb

[nishant2200]

Visa bulletin page is updated with Jan 2012 (Coming Soon)

good luck to all! one bitter lesson learnt from last month, it cannot be deduced that VB is really coming soon just because this page got updated. I had high hopes since it got updated on the 1st of the month last time too.

I think Friday December 9th will be it. Expect DD a day or two earlier.

[SaturnRing]

As Nishant said, Good luck to all of us :)

Each day till we have the Jan bulletin public is going to be pretty painful for me. Missed the PD by 2 weeks and I am praying to all gods and good spirits for a forward movement in the upcoming bulletin :)

[gchopeful123]

Qblogfan,
Brother - this is just UNACCEPTABLE !!!! You have been after COs backend since so many months for not progressing the dates, and now that he has you are not taking the next step. Take the advice of Q, Teddy and others...hire your own attorney and let him recommend next steps. Lawyers are very creative and maybe you will be able to file using prev employment letters, paystubs etc. The I-485 process is between you,lawyer and USCIS so dont worry about your employer. I dont care if this sounds harsh but there is no way we are going to allow you to sit on your backend and do nothing. Dont make us start a petition to get you to file....





Thanks guys! Thanks for asking!

My boss and the CEO went to the meeting with my client. It looks like the project will continue for at least two or three months, but I am not sure whether this company can last for more than several months.

I have kept asking the CEO to file 485 for me, but he didn't give me a clear answer yet. He has delayed my PERM for two years last time. I am not sure how long he will delay this time. Tomorrow is Dec.1st, but the CEO didn't give me an answer yet! It's so much pain to work with these kind of managment people! They know I will leave soon after 485, so they are trying to postpone it as much as they can. Also I guess they are not sure whether this office can continue or not, maybe they don't want to waste the 4k-5k money on me. It's very evil, but I can't do much!

One side note about my thoughts on HR 3012: Because of the possible new HR3012 law, EB2 ROW are scared now. They will rush into the system in the coming 2 or 3 months. The EB2 ROW consumption may go up dramatically.Nobody wants to wait for 2 more years for nothing. The impact of this event is that Mr.CO may stop the VB movement when he sees the surge of EB2 ROW. He will move the VB again once HR 3012 becomes a law. It is just my wild guess. Gurus, please input some on this thought!

[ontheedge]

As Nishant said, Good luck to all of us :)

Each day till we have the Jan bulletin public is going to be pretty painful for me. Missed the PD by 2 weeks and I am praying to all gods and good spirits for a forward movement in the upcoming bulletin :)

I hear you Saturn. I am counting days, and crossing fingers and toes

[imdeng]

(Posting in the main thread as well for increased visibility)

Folks - I have created a petition that will send emails (for free) as well as printed letters (for a fee) to your respective senators.

http://www.petition2congress.com/5665/support-fairness-high-skilled-immigrants-hr-3012/

This is a variant of the **'s petition - I have taken their content and edited it and included some thoughts of my own. To me, it reads better than the ** petition. I would urge you to spend the $9 it takes to send a printed version of the letter to the Senators - it definitely has more impact than just an email.

The link allows you to edit the petition before sending if you so wish. If you are making changes, then please share them with me so that I can collate the useful changes and edit the original petition with them.

[mesan123]

signed it. :)


(Posting in the main thread as well for increased visibility)

Folks - I have created a petition that will send emails (for free) as well as printed letters (for a fee) to your respective senators.

http://www.petition2congress.com/5665/support-fairness-high-skilled-immigrants-hr-3012/

This is a variant of the **'s petition - I have taken their content and edited it and included some thoughts of my own. To me, it reads better than the ** petition. I would urge you to spend the $9 it takes to send a printed version of the letter to the Senators - it definitely has more impact than just an email.

The link allows you to edit the petition before sending if you so wish. If you are making changes, then please share them with me so that I can collate the useful changes and edit the original petition with them.

[tometukuri]

Signed the petition.

Question on filing for adjustment of status - My lawyer sent in my I-485 application yesterday to Texas Service Center. Are I-485 processing times impacted by which service center you file with? I know there might be minor differences in processing times, but just wanted to get other's POV as well.


(Posting in the main thread as well for increased visibility)

Folks - I have created a petition that will send emails (for free) as well as printed letters (for a fee) to your respective senators.

http://www.petition2congress.com/5665/support-fairness-high-skilled-immigrants-hr-3012/

This is a variant of the **'s petition - I have taken their content and edited it and included some thoughts of my own. To me, it reads better than the ** petition. I would urge you to spend the $9 it takes to send a printed version of the letter to the Senators - it definitely has more impact than just an email.

The link allows you to edit the petition before sending if you so wish. If you are making changes, then please share them with me so that I can collate the useful changes and edit the original petition with them.

[nomphy]

Guys - When should we expect actual GC in hand for Nov 2011 filers at TSC

[imdeng]

Yup it makes a difference in the processing times - and unfortunately Texas is the slower one I believe.

My lawyer sent in my I-485 application yesterday to Texas Service Center. Are I-485 processing times impacted by which service center you file with? I know there might be minor differences in processing times, but just wanted to get other's POV as well.

[vizcard]

Yup it makes a difference in the processing times - and unfortunately Texas is the slower one I believe.

Imdeng - what's with the hideous avatar picture :)

[imdeng]

Not hideous - winged helmet - the symbol of Wolverine Football (Univ of Michigan, one PhD and two Masters from there in my house :-)

Imdeng - what's with the hideous avatar picture :)

[veni001]

Guys - When should we expect actual GC in hand for Nov 2011 filers at TSC

nomphy,
TSC is pretty slow, i would count at-least three months for EAD/AP and 6 months for GC.

Veni

[gkjppp]

As Nishant said, Good luck to all of us :)

Each day till we have the Jan bulletin public is going to be pretty painful for me. Missed the PD by 2 weeks and I am praying to all gods and good spirits for a forward movement in the upcoming bulletin :)

SaturnRing, yours is done deal with or without HR 3012.

[Spectator]

It has overwritten the previous version for 2010 and can be found here (http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/WaitingListItem.pdf)

I haven't really looked at it in detail yet, but I did notice the numbers for EB5 have increased by +52.7%. Most other categories have fallen slightly.

[nishant2200]

It has overwritten the previous version for 2010 and can be found here (http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/WaitingListItem.pdf)

I haven't really looked at it in detail yet, but I did notice the numbers for EB5 have increased by +52.7%. Most other categories have fallen slightly.

Spec, on people waiting, in EB categories, for EB2, I see:
India 3,705
China-mainland born 1,053

So does this mean, their current known demand for CP cases for India is 3,705 and China is 1,053, so this should be ideally added to the demand data which next comes up for the Jan VB.

[vizcard]

Not hideous - winged helmet - the symbol of Wolverine Football (Univ of Michigan, one PhD and two Masters from there in my house :-)

I know what it is. I went to Ohio State :)

[Spectator]

Spec, on people waiting, in EB categories, for EB2, I see:
India 3,705
China-mainland born 1,053

So does this mean, their current known demand for CP cases for India is 3,705 and China is 1,053, so this should be ideally added to the demand data which next comes up for the Jan VB.

I don't think you can really use it with the demand data effectively. The NVC data reflects the number of people mentioned on I-140s received to November 2011. Most of the numbers will relate to the period 2008-2011.

The Demand Data includes Documentarily Qualified CP cases, including some in the NVC data. For EB2, the numbers are quite low anyway and AOS cases completely dwarf them.

In further forward looking projections for EB2, they are accounted for, since apart from NIW, they will likely have come through the PERM process.

Trying to make sense of future numbers on the basis of the NVC Waiting List data is an exercise in futility e.g. If CP for EB2 is 2%, then 3.7k EB2-I CP equates to 185k AOS+CP

Clearly that is not correct. Maybe the CP % is set to rise in the future or it represents multiple I-140 having AOS and CP processing or something else.

I do think it is an interesting document and highlights some interesting points, for instance, the numbers of EB3-P (probably Nurses and Physical Therapists who are ineligible for H1B) waiting for an Immigrant Visa and outside the USCIS I-485 figures.

Good luck if you can make more sense of it.

[imdeng]

Oh... I took your comment literally... sorry about that :-)

I know what it is. I went to Ohio State :)

[qesehmk]

I know what it is. I went to Ohio State :)


Oh... I took your comment literally... sorry about that :-)
imdeng he meant it literally :) How do I know? I went to Michigan State!

[qesehmk]

1) With new i140 amendment, will my EAD be delayed? do they approve the i140 and issue EAD?
2) Im from KS, which service center would they apply.


#1 - No. If at all may be a month or so MAX. There is no reason to be delayed.
#2 - Please google yourself. My guess is Texas.

[soggadu]

Q.... Please check ur PM....

[vizcard]

So getting back to calculations and predictions, does everyone feel comfortable that we will see a two month move ahead in the Jan VB and a stall or retrogression beyond that till august/ sept (assuming hR3012 gets stuck or worse).

[tometukuri]

Thanks imdeng for your input. Someone mentioned 3 months for EAD/AP at TSC, which is not bad at all compared to the waiting we did all these years :)


Yup it makes a difference in the processing times - and unfortunately Texas is the slower one I believe.

[polapragada]

Breaking News:

Just now one my friend with PD 04-AUG-2007 called USCIS for status on his previously opened SR. He spoke with L2 officer and got response saying that "VISA number done for now. Wait for 90 days"..

I am thinking this might be a jerk on coming up VB of Jan,2012

[pdmay2008]

Breaking News:

Just now one my friend with PD 04-AUG-2007 called USCIS for status on his previously opened SR. He spoke with L2 officer and got response saying that "VISA number done for now. Wait for 90 days"..

I am thinking this might be a jerk on coming up VB of Jan,2012

I think for now CO is collecting the demand and he is not worried about VISA number availability at this point of time. He is just preparing for next spill over season. Hope he does not consider this news to move the dates further in Jan bulletin.

[gchopeful123]

Does this in anyway indicate that they are now doing quarterly spillovers?


Breaking News:

Just now one my friend with PD 04-AUG-2007 called USCIS for status on his previously opened SR. He spoke with L2 officer and got response saying that "VISA number done for now. Wait for 90 days"..

I am thinking this might be a jerk on coming up VB of Jan,2012

[grnwtg]

I guess many of us agreed that 'definetly' there is quarterly spill over now. And coming to quota - they can give full quota of 'india+chinese+quarterly spill over' ( we cannot guestimate it as it is up to CO to decide, after going through his calculations, rules and his mood), so there should not be any surprise for us to hear that quota for this quarter is done.

Looking at the current trend, My Guess would be that GC will become more favorable to India and Chinese because of increasing millionaires and politicians from above said countries as opposed to past where Europeons use to dominate the Rich+Political front.



Does this in anyway indicate that they are now doing quarterly spillovers?

[sreddy]

if "Wait for 90 days" term was used, not guessed (second hand information some times have guesses), it is clear that Quarterly spillover is already in place. I think we do have some other indications before as well indiating may be there are quarterly spillovers.

Here are my thoughts... If you look at last year's movement, 2011 saw about 12 months (may be 11.5 months) movement. Appears that second part 2007, and early 2008 is about same desity, if not more denser, compared to previous year. So we cannot expect movement beyond March 2008 (may be + or - a month). That being said, CO seems be in the mood of building some inventory (based on what he spoke in the meeting last month). One un-solved puzzle is how much inventory does he want to see? Does HR 3012 have any influence on what CO is thinking? In addition, this is election year. So any from Demcratic party are thinking to show some flexibility, that may help get some support from Indian/Chinese community (2007 Fiasco happend about a year before elections)?? So it all depends on what factors are going to influence forward movement. Hard to guess.... just wait for 3 or 4 more days, you will get better picuture of what is on CO's table, and what is in his mind (you will never get a clear picuture however, and will have same type of questions next month as well).


I guess many of us agreed that 'definetly' there is quarterly spill over now. And coming to quota - they can give full quota of 'india+chinese+quarterly spill over' ( we cannot guestimate it as it is up to CO to decide, after going through his calculations, rules and his mood), so there should not be any surprise for us to hear that quota for this quarter is done.

Looking at the current trend, My Guess would be that GC will become more favorable to India and Chinese because of increasing millionaires and politicians from above said countries as opposed to past where Europeons use to dominate the Rich+Political front.

[doctorp]

did anybody who applied in december see the checks cashed yet? i have not:(

[polapragada]

did anybody who applied in december see the checks cashed yet? i have not:(

for my applications attornary office cut the checks to USCIS...later I will pay them. So I have no way to track it :(

[familyguy]

My checks have not been cashed yet. CIS received my application on Dec 1. Wait for another 2 to 3 days.


did anybody who applied in december see the checks cashed yet? i have not:(

[srd4gc]

hi, can we register on uscis website so we can receive all the updates on our files? can we get updates on both both primary and dependent applications using one A# for primary's I-140 or is it done using receipt #s?

[doctorp]

hi, can we register on uscis website so we can receive all the updates on our files? can we get updates on both both primary and dependent applications using one A# for primary's I-140 or is it done using receipt #s?

you need a receipt number to register, and as you and your spouse will have different receipt numbers, you have to track them seperately

[vizcard]

if "Wait for 90 days" term was used, not guessed (second hand information some times have guesses), it is clear that Quarterly spillover is already in place. I think we do have some other indications before as well indiating may be there are quarterly spillovers.

Here are my thoughts... If you look at last year's movement, 2011 saw about 12 months (may be 11.5 months) movement. Appears that second part 2007, and early 2008 is about same desity, if not more denser, compared to previous year. So we cannot expect movement beyond March 2008 (may be + or - a month). That being said, CO seems be in the mood of building some inventory (based on what he spoke in the meeting last month). One un-solved puzzle is how much inventory does he want to see? Does HR 3012 have any influence on what CO is thinking? In addition, this is election year. So any from Demcratic party are thinking to show some flexibility, that may help get some support from Indian/Chinese community (2007 Fiasco happend about a year before elections)?? So it all depends on what factors are going to influence forward movement. Hard to guess.... just wait for 3 or 4 more days, you will get better picuture of what is on CO's table, and what is in his mind (you will never get a clear picuture however, and will have same type of questions next month as well).

This year is very different from past years simply because there is no demand data to work off. Up until the July 2007 cases were in the hopper, he had visibility and could move dates accordingly. Right now, hes has a "sense" of what's in the pipe. Going by trends and math, he could stop in 12 months which I believe would be June 2008. But is that going to be enough? How can he guarantee that ?

I'm less concerned about the impact of Hr3012 in the short term VBs. Its visibility in to the "business as usual" demand and inventory that's important.

[SaturnRing]

Please don't hold me on this :)

Our company attorneys sent email asking all of us before PD of Apr 15th to be ready with 485 documentation. And I did call attorney's office and they sounded positive that there will be forward movement this bulletin and a possible stall/retro after that.

They also said *IF* there is movement in 3012 bill in senate then EB2IC will become current for a month before settling down with dates for ROW and EB2 I/C, and that they heard the information from CO office.

Again, everything is word of mouth, so please don't hold me on this :), but I would be one happy soul if there is forward movement next month.

[venkimakthal]

Please don't hold me on this :)

Our company attorneys sent email asking all of us before PD of Apr 15th to be ready with 485 documentation. And I did call attorney's office and they sounded positive that there will be forward movement this bulletin and a possible stall/retro after that.

They also said *IF* there is movement in 3012 bill in senate then EB2IC will become current for a month before settling down with dates for ROW and EB2 I/C, and that they heard the information from CO office.

Again, everything is word of mouth, so please don't hold me on this :), but I would be one happy soul if there is forward movement next month.

My attorney told me almost 20days back that they are anticipating my date will become current in Jan 2012 VB and asked for the documents to send, I will send all the documents including medicals and crossing fingers and waiting for the real VB

[venkimakthal]

Hope DD will out by 12/07 and VB out by 11/09

[pdmay2008]

My attorney told me almost 20days back that they are anticipating my date will become current in Jan 2012 VB and asked for the documents to send, I will send all the documents including medicals and crossing fingers and waiting for the real VB

My attorney never tells me anything. My date is exactly 1 month after your PD. Hope we see 2 to 4 months forward movement as Gurus suggested before.

[vizcard]

My attorney never tells me anything. My date is exactly 1 month after your PD. Hope we see 2 to 4 months forward movement as Gurus suggested before.

I would suggest you keep ALL your docs ready. there's a very high probability your PD will get current in the Jan VB.

[vchirakala]

How about pD 04/18/2008 ??

[jkrocks]

I think this is my 3rd post:-) in my first post i said July 2008 ..and it moved to March 2008 ..Now i am thinking it will be July 2008 ..Reason - It is a just a gut feeling based on what we see from last bulletin, CO did clearly mention that Jan/Feb bulletins would be similar to DEC and will eventually retro..in Summer 2008 based on that i think it should go another 6-7 months ..So no worries for now..Good luck to everyone!:-) PUSH-->"Pray Untill Somethings Happens"

[sreddy]

I don't think July 2007 cases were processed from 2011 demand. If you look back into history, while cases of April 2007 were being processed we got signal saying Visa numbers for 2011 are done (that's when our gurus said "Sleep until next March/April").

I agree with you on one point. There is no demand data to predict clear cut movement. But our indications show data is not too low to show great movement after April 2007. On the other hand, current forward movement is for demand generation. So Mr.CO can simply say i want to see numbers in demand until Q2 of 2013 or little more. It's all matter of issueing EADs for now any way, so nobody is going to question him. He even indicated dates may retrogess towards summer 2012.



This year is very different from past years simply because there is no demand data to work off. Up until the July 2007 cases were in the hopper, he had visibility and could move dates accordingly. Right now, hes has a "sense" of what's in the pipe. Going by trends and math, he could stop in 12 months which I believe would be June 2008. But is that going to be enough? How can he guarantee that ?

I'm less concerned about the impact of Hr3012 in the short term VBs. Its visibility in to the "business as usual" demand and inventory that's important.

[wantgcnow]

Once demand deta comes out..we could easily judge the movement

[soggadu]

guys... this is a question regarding post 485, the other thread is not so much visible so i want to post it here too...mods please feel free to remove...

1. What happens after FP?
2. How many days does FBI name check and FP check take?
3. Once the above checks are done, am i preadjucated waiting for Visa number?

All the very best for all in the line and i pray your number come sooner than any one can predict....

[Tomtuat]

I haven't predicted any PD movements so far! But I'm confident that EB2-I/C will move to June/22/2008 or July/01/2008 in January 2012's visa bulletin. Reason??: Vick's post on ** back in June 2011 regarding NVC fee notice his lawyer received in May 2011. His PD is June 12th 2008. This is a clear indication of the forward movement in January 2012's visa bulletin. Yes, yes....I know the fee receipt doesn't expire...If this prediction goes wrong, I'll never ever try to predict again :)

[vizcard]

I haven't predicted any PD movements so far! But I'm confident that EB2-I/C will move to June/22/2008 or July/01/2008 in January 2012's visa bulletin. Reason??: Vick's post on ** back in June 2011 regarding NVC fee notice his lawyer received in May 2011. His PD is June 12th 2008. This is a clear indication of the forward movement in January 2012's visa bulletin. Yes, yes....I know the fee receipt doesn't expire...If this prediction goes wrong, I'll never ever try to predict again :)

With NVC receipts rule of thumb is 12 months. so if he got his NVC fee notice in May 2011 that means his PD should be current by May 2012...not necessarily in the Jan VB. That being said, the general consensus is June 30,2008 by Mar and then retrogression. Could CO do another 3 month move? sure... but that would be mildly surprising to me.

FYI - we know of a 9/11/2008 PD fee notice (identified in Nov).

[pch053]

guys... this is a question regarding post 485, the other thread is not so much visible so i want to post it here too...mods please feel free to remove...

1. What happens after FP?
2. How many days does FBI name check and FP check take?
3. Once the above checks are done, am i preadjucated waiting for Visa number?

All the very best for all in the line and i pray your number come sooner than any one can predict....

Yes, I think after fingerprinting and name check is completed, one's application is ready for approval, assuming visa numbers are available and all other documents (birth certificate, medical tests, etc) are in place. In the past few years, we have seen lots of EVL related RFEs but those were primarily because of the long gap between I485 submission and approval when the individual has switched jobs using AC21. I doubt we will see any similar RFEs from now onwards as the I485 applications will be relatively fresh when it is ready for approval. I think we all have seen multiple theories floating around on how USCIS approves applications if PDs are current based on Notice Date, Receipt date, etc but I am not sure whether at all there is a given pattern for the same.

[Dec13th2007]

folks, First of all thanks to you all for wonderful information. Since June, i have been reading all threads everyday morning.
Last bulletin, I went current, Everything is done. Dec 1st My lawyer submitted all the documents for EAD, AP and i485... Dec 6th today, I have got the text message about my application has been received. Like some of you, My employer has been kind a exploiting, goofy, and making my life hell since last few years.. Fingers crossed and hoping that everything goes well.

Wish you all good luck who are waiting and also for those who are current.

P.S. if this is not a right post, sorry, first time i am posting here.

[indiasunil]

guys... this is a question regarding post 485, the other thread is not so much visible so i want to post it here too...mods please feel free to remove...

1. What happens after FP?
2. How many days does FBI name check and FP check take?
3. Once the above checks are done, am i preadjucated waiting for Visa number?

All the very best for all in the line and i pray your number come sooner than any one can predict....

My Lawyer just sent docs to USCIS. According to her :

1. -> After FP, Name Check & other security checks in place.
2. -> FBI Name Check and FP will take 30 to 90 days.
3. -> Once all completed you will receive EAD and have to wait for VISA Number.

[romanitaly]

Hi
How did you setup to get a text message when your application is received. Is this the message you got from the FedEx/courier delivery confirmation? or from USCIS?

Thanks


folks, First of all thanks to you all for wonderful information. Since June, i have been reading all threads everyday morning.
Last bulletin, I went current, Everything is done. Dec 1st My lawyer submitted all the documents for EAD, AP and i485... Dec 6th today, I have got the text message about my application has been received. Like some of you, My employer has been kind a exploiting, goofy, and making my life hell since last few years.. Fingers crossed and hoping that everything goes well.

Wish you all good luck who are waiting and also for those who are current.

P.S. if this is not a right post, sorry, first time i am posting here.

[nishant2200]

Hi
How did you setup to get a text message when your application is received. Is this the message you got from the FedEx/courier delivery confirmation? or from USCIS?

Thanks
G1145 probably. I missed it too.

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?287-E-notification-of-application-acceptance-at-lockboxes

[nishant2200]

My lawyer said similar.

Would like to clarify though getting EAD/AP does not mean 485 is preadjudicated also.

My Lawyer just sent docs to USCIS. According to her :

1. -> After FP, Name Check & other security checks in place.
2. -> FBI Name Check and FP will take 30 to 90 days.
3. -> Once all completed you will receive EAD and have to wait for VISA Number.

[qesehmk]

Team

We made one donation $75. And we will make one more in next couple of days.
Please suggest any charities for next month in the donations thread
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?90-Account-of-Donations-We-Made&goto=newpost

[Reader]

My lawyer said similar.

Would like to clarify though getting EAD/AP does not mean 485 is preadjudicated also.

Nishant, Are you asking for clarification or clarifying this for other's benefit? At any point, do we ever know whether our case is pre-adjudicated or do we have to wait till the visa number is available and 485 is officially approved to get a sigh of relief?

[Karma1979]

you can simply ask your lawyer to provide the tracking number as they always send such important documents via registered mail.

[nishant2200]

Nishant, Are you asking for clarification or clarifying this for other's benefit? At any point, do we ever know whether our case is pre-adjudicated or do we have to wait till the visa number is available and 485 is officially approved to get a sigh of relief?

From Sunil's post, one may infer potentially that if you got EAD/AP card, you are all set and just waiting for visa number. Hence I was clarifying that we should not think like that, I am sure Sunil or his lawyer didn't mean that either. We may know about pre-adjudication, if you case has fallen out of the processing times of the service center it is at, and you can take an infopass appointment, to ask about the status. This is what I have inferred from posts by people, I have not asked lawyer about it, as I don't want to bother him unnecessarily for hypothetical scenarios.

[harick]

My Lawyer just sent docs to USCIS. According to her :

1. -> After FP, Name Check & other security checks in place.
2. -> FBI Name Check and FP will take 30 to 90 days.
3. -> Once all completed you will receive EAD and have to wait for VISA Number.

I have the same understanding until I read couple of posts in Nov EB2I filers thread in trackitt yesterday.

Yesterday I saw two posts from NSC applicants in that thread. They said they received email confirmations for I765 (EAD) approval. One person got approval even before finger printing, the other person got approval two days after the finger printing is done.

[vizcard]

Do all these 485 related posts need to be moved to the 485 thread ?

[pdmay2008]

Do all these 485 related posts need to be moved to the 485 thread ?

Are we close to get Demand data and Visa Bulletin. Really hoping for at least 2 months movement.

[kumarbos]

Did anyone heard about NVC notice after Sep 2008 for EB2I?

[ramchand]

Hello All,

I am a new member, so please forgive if posting in wrong thread. Please move it to appropriate location if needed.

I was hoping I could get some advise about my situation.
I am in my 6th year H1B with no PERM on file. Unfortunately, my company is shuttering so no approved I-140 for me. Other companies not willing to hire because H1B cannot be extended any further.

My options are:
1) Go out of the country for 1 year so that fresh H1B can be filed after I get back as wife's dependant on H4.
2) Go onto my wife's H4 and wait for my wife's PD(April 2009) to get current.

I do not want to sit idle for too long, so I am trying to get an estimate as to when my wife will get current. If it is going to be more than a year, I might as well go out of the country for a year. Separation from Spouse is hard, but sitting idle will be even harder :(. I already have a job offer from outside the US (with no Visa issues for that country).

Any thoughts/estimates from you are much appreciated.

-Ramchand

[SaturnRing]

By no means I am a Guru, but taking a stab at your PD, with current yr's Spill over, we will be clearing only till Mar 2008 and considering an approximate Spill over of 25 - 30 K next yr, and ~2.5k demand per month till Mid 2008 and ~1.5 - 2K demand per month starting mid 2008 till mid 2009, you might get through in the next yr intake. Meaning, you might be current befor Feb 2013 - Apr 2013.

Thats all assuming 3012 doesn't pass. If that passes, you might get through earlier than that.

[bieber]

Did anyone heard about NVC notice after Sep 2008 for EB2I?
I think last NVC notice information was from Ron gotcher confirming July30, where did you hear about Sept 2008?

[vizcard]

I think last NVC notice information was from Ron gotcher confirming July30, where did you hear about Sept 2008?

Someone on this forum said his friend with 9/11/2008 PD got a fee notice. He initially said Oct but later corrected to Sept. If you go back a few pages, you might find it.

[jkrocks]

@RamChand!.. Option 1: Become dependent if you want to stay with your wife/family.
Option 2: If you want to be away !..go back to India..and do some work in some multi-national company i am sure they will give you nice perks as you came back from US.
Regarding 2009 becoming current- My friend no one knows what will happen to HR 3012 but all i can say is "Life should go on...." so relax be positive ..discuss with your family and move forward I am sure you will succeed ...Good lucK!

[Zoroark]

Someone on this forum said his friend with 9/11/2008 PD got a fee notice. He initially said Oct but later corrected to Sept. If you go back a few pages, you might find it.

My friend recently got the NVC fee notice and his PD is 08/19/2008.

[soggadu]

Hello All,

I am a new member, so please forgive if posting in wrong thread. Please move it to appropriate location if needed.

I was hoping I could get some advise about my situation.
I am in my 6th year H1B with no PERM on file. Unfortunately, my company is shuttering so no approved I-140 for me. Other companies not willing to hire because H1B cannot be extended any further.

My options are:
1) Go out of the country for 1 year so that fresh H1B can be filed after I get back as wife's dependant on H4.
2) Go onto my wife's H4 and wait for my wife's PD(April 2009) to get current.

I do not want to sit idle for too long, so I am trying to get an estimate as to when my wife will get current. If it is going to be more than a year, I might as well go out of the country for a year. Separation from Spouse is hard, but sitting idle will be even harder :(. I already have a job offer from outside the US (with no Visa issues for that country).

Any thoughts/estimates from you are much appreciated.

-Ramchand

Bro... first of all you are lucky that you have a backup... my guess is same time next year you would be good without 3012 and in couple of months you will be good if 3012 makes through.... dont worry bro... you are in good shape...

[bieber]

Vizcard, thanks


My friend recently got the NVC fee notice and his PD is 08/19/2008.

Zoroark, can you confirm the date of this receipt?

[Tomtuat]

I think last NVC notice information was from Ron gotcher confirming July30, where did you hear about Sept 2008?

Yes, he confirmed that he received notice in November for 2 or 3 clients with July 2008 PD. But someone with June 2008 PD received NVC fee notice in May 2011 which is why I beleive they will move the date to July 1 2008 in January 2012's bulletin. As per Ron, NVC send the notice 4 to 9 months in advance.

[vizcard]

Yes, he confirmed that he received notice in November for 2 or 3 clients with July 2008 PD. But someone with June 2008 PD received NVC fee notice in May 2011 which is why I beleive they will move the date to July 1 2008 in January 2012's bulletin. As per Ron, NVC send the notice 4 to 9 months in advance.

that 4 - 9 months is very variable depending on the source. I've heard 6 - 12 months as well. But I hope you are right. As I said before, I believe dates will move to June 30 and then stall or retrogress (my opinion).

[venkat]

Hello All,
I've been a silent member in this forum visiting at least twice a day. Great work by the entire team here...

I think the popular prediction for VB dates movement is July 1, 2008 (in next 1-2 months) and then retrogression.

This is being assumed based on initial NVC fee receipts issued to applicants about 4-5 months back. I guess we need to find out from those folks how far there cases have advanced since then. I think they need to submit initial documentation to NVC, then it gets verified and NVC requests applicant to fill another set of documents. Once they receive it and verify it the applicant is considered documentarily complete. Then they send it to overseas for scheduling the immigrant visa interview.

Is it possible to find out whether folks whose PD is in March (as per Dec VB) have completed all documentation and received interview letters from NVC/Consulate?

Also what about folks in March-June time-frame? have they submitted all necessary documentation to NVC?

Unless we know these for sure i don't know whether we can say with confidence that the dates will move till July 2008 for sure.

Gurus, Please comment...

[Tomtuat]

that 4 - 9 months is very variable depending on the source. I've heard 6 - 12 months as well. But I hope you are right. As I said before, I believe dates will move to June 30 and then stall or retrogress (my opinion).

I hope we'll have the bulletin on Friday!!

[natvyas]

I was wondering how would the demand data have an impact on the PD movement in the Jan VB given the fact that the CO is moving dates to build a pipeline

[vizcard]

I was wondering how would the demand data have an impact on the PD movement in the Jan VB given the fact that the CO is moving dates to build a pipeline

Its more important for us rather than for CO. More data points === more visibility in to the process and better calculations.

[Spectator]

I was wondering how would the demand data have an impact on the PD movement in the Jan VB given the fact that the CO is moving dates to build a pipelinenatvyas,

For EB2, the Demand Data can not really tell us anything positive.

I expect it to look exactly as last month, give or take 25-100 cases. Essentially they will represent CP cases where the visas have been allocated, but the interview has not yet taken place.

All EB2-IC dates that could be adjudicated are effectively Current. If a visa is requested by USCIS, it will be issued and immediately consumed to approve the case. Therefore it will not appear in the Demand Data.

If the numbers rise substantially in the Demand Data, it would indicate that there are no further visas to allocate to EB2-IC in December. I don't expect this to happen, although DOS do seem to have already allocated the majority of the 27% available for Q1.

If it takes 4-5 months to adjudicate a new I-485, then only cases submitted in July/August will be coming ready for approval. That is not a large number and the existing preadjudicated cases seem to be virtually all approved.

Only if the dates retrogress should we expect the numbers in the Demand Data to increase.

[vizcard]

natvyas,

For EB2, the Demand Data can not really tell us anything positive.

I expect it to look exactly as last month, give or take 25-100 cases. Essentially they will represent CP cases where the visas have been allocated, but the interview has not yet taken place.

All EB2-IC dates that could be adjudicated are effectively Current. If a visa is requested by USCIS, it will be issued and immediately consumed to approve the case. Therefore it will not appear in the Demand Data.

If the numbers rise substantially in the Demand Data, it would indicate that there are no further visas to allocate to EB2-IC in December. I don't expect this to happen, although DOS do seem to have already allocated the majority of the 27% available for Q1.

If it takes 4-5 months to adjudicate a new I-485, then only cases submitted in July/August will be coming ready for approval. That is not a large number and the existing preadjudicated cases seem to be virtually all approved.

Only if the dates retrogress should we expect the numbers in the Demand Data to increase.

This implies that dates will move significantly, no?

[SaturnRing]

vizcard, I really wish that it means the date will move forward, but it is USCIS and DOL we are talking about :)

According to last month's demand data, the supply far exceeded demand, so they should have made current, but they didn't. The same logic applies here too, low DD should mean a forward movement (and I am badly hoping it is), but we would never know.

out conservative guru Teddy says 50%, so lets hope for the best.

[Spectator]

This implies that dates will move significantly, no?vizcard,

Not really.

CO can move the Cut off Dates independent of Demand currently because the new cases have yet to be adjudicated. I am sure CO knows already what date he is aiming for.

Personally, if I was CO, I would move it in several smaller increments.

Why? As long as the dates continue to move forward, everybody is happy. If the dates stall or retrogress, people will be unhappy. We saw that last year. Since that is bound to happen at some point, I would delay that situation as long as possible.

The only caveat to that is that, hopefully CO is getting some data from USCIS regarding Receipt totals. If they are either higher or lower than he is expecting, he might have to rethink his strategy.

Ultimately, what will be, will be.

[aaron385]

Friends, I know this is a bit off topic and may have been discussed in the past but I was wondering if someone can give me a quick reply.
My birth certificate is in Hindi language and does not have my name on it. It just says that a Boy was born to my parents on that date.

I have two separate affidavits from my parents stating the fact my name was not added to my original certificate.
Are these two affidavits sufficient for I-485 filing or do I need to get my original BC translated into English?
If yes, can it be any professional transalor company or does it has to be from the native Municipal corporation?
Thanks in advance

[manubhai]

Friends, I know this is a bit off topic and may have been discussed in the past but I was wondering if someone can give me a quick reply.
My birth certificate is in Hindi language and does not have my name on it. It just says that a Boy was born to my parents on that date.

I have two separate affidavits from my parents stating the fact my name was not added to my original certificate.
Are these two affidavits sufficient for I-485 filing or do I need to get my original BC translated into English?
If yes, can it be any professional transalor company or does it has to be from the native Municipal corporation?
Thanks in advance

Not a legal advice, please consult a lawyer.

I have a similar issue - no name, only baby boy/girl, but in English.
Per my attorney - You could get away with two things:
1. English Translation
2. Board exam certificate with your and parents' name.

From what I remember from messages on this board only - translation could be done by anyone. Please confirm this though.

And this message should have been in the 485 thread (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?218-I-485-Documentation-Discussion). Have a look at that if you haven't to resolve other issues you may have.

Again, not a legal advice, please consult a lawyer.

[GCKnowHow]

@ramchand: As you see there are two options. Predictions can always go wrong. Or something could happen that might delay the total process, there are no guarantee. You may want to take up the job and if everything goes well and if the dates become current then you can come back on H4, get EAD and get a job.
If that didn't happen wait for a year get H1 and come back.
You should feel lucky that you have so many options rather than no options.


Hello All,

I am a new member, so please forgive if posting in wrong thread. Please move it to appropriate location if needed.

I was hoping I could get some advise about my situation.
I am in my 6th year H1B with no PERM on file. Unfortunately, my company is shuttering so no approved I-140 for me. Other companies not willing to hire because H1B cannot be extended any further.

My options are:
1) Go out of the country for 1 year so that fresh H1B can be filed after I get back as wife's dependant on H4.
2) Go onto my wife's H4 and wait for my wife's PD(April 2009) to get current.

I do not want to sit idle for too long, so I am trying to get an estimate as to when my wife will get current. If it is going to be more than a year, I might as well go out of the country for a year. Separation from Spouse is hard, but sitting idle will be even harder :(. I already have a job offer from outside the US (with no Visa issues for that country).

Any thoughts/estimates from you are much appreciated.

-Ramchand

[RMS_V13]

Ramchand : My spouse and I have been away from each other for a year for same reason and time has flown by. My kids are in a different country, my spouse in another country and me in a totally different country. All due to the uncertainity in the GC process. PD Aug 2008 here.



@ramchand: As you see there are two options. Predictions can always go wrong. Or something could happen that might delay the total process, there are no guarantee. You may want to take up the job and if everything goes well and if the dates become current then you can come back on H4, get EAD and get a job.
If that didn't happen wait for a year get H1 and come back.
You should feel lucky that you have so many options rather than no options.

[winsomelad]

Ramchand : My spouse and I have been away from each other for a year for same reason and time has flown by. My kids are in a different country, my spouse in another country and me in a totally different country. All due to the uncertainity in the GC process. PD Aug 2008 here.


I totally agree with you, but not with separation. Human needs are not only GC and Money, it will be linked with lot of things. As, my personal feelings I can't leave my wife and children for the case of GC. Noways :-(

In your case, my suggestions are go to college and take some higher studies education, mean while you will get your Assistant ship, funding, OPT EAD or GC EAD. I know, it is bit difficult to spend bugs. But, Knowledge is also worth it in life.

[DonDron]

Ramchand : My spouse and I have been away from each other for a year for same reason and time has flown by. My kids are in a different country, my spouse in another country and me in a totally different country. All due to the uncertainity in the GC process. PD Aug 2008 here.

This is just sad.

I hope your GC comes soon and is worth living like this..

[pdfeb09]

natvyas,

For EB2, the Demand Data can not really tell us anything positive.

I expect it to look exactly as last month, give or take 25-100 cases. Essentially they will represent CP cases where the visas have been allocated, but the interview has not yet taken place.

All EB2-IC dates that could be adjudicated are effectively Current. If a visa is requested by USCIS, it will be issued and immediately consumed to approve the case. Therefore it will not appear in the Demand Data.

If the numbers rise substantially in the Demand Data, it would indicate that there are no further visas to allocate to EB2-IC in December. I don't expect this to happen, although DOS do seem to have already allocated the majority of the 27% available for Q1.

If it takes 4-5 months to adjudicate a new I-485, then only cases submitted in July/August will be coming ready for approval. That is not a large number and the existing preadjudicated cases seem to be virtually all approved.

Only if the dates retrogress should we expect the numbers in the Demand Data to increase.

With this, would there be a way to tell how many Visas were utilized in a given FY? In other words, is there a way to find out if VISAs were wasted at the end of the FY? We have been using the change in the DD to speculate about the VISA allocation in a given FY, right?

[shreyasai2004]

Is DD is out ???????

[venkimakthal]

Is DD is out ???????

Not yet, waiting eagerly, may be tomorrow

[wantgcnow]

My gut feeling is that DD may come on friday and VB on Monday feeling

[bieber]

Both Demand Data and the bulletin should be out by Friday, they both might just come out on same day

[dec2007]

Nishanth

Did you file on Dec 1st? My application is still being worked by HR, might take few more days. How does USCIS issues GC, based on FIFO or PD?
If I file on Dec 15th and a person with Feb 2008 PD files before me, lets say Dec 1st itself, is there a chance he gets GC before me?

Please clairfy

Thanks, and good luck

[vizcard]

Nishanth

Did you file on Dec 1st? My application is still being worked by HR, might take few more days. How does USCIS issues GC, based on FIFO or PD?
If I file on Dec 15th and a person with Feb 2008 PD files before me, lets say Dec 1st itself, is there a chance he gets GC before me?

Please clairfy

Thanks, and good luck

I believe its, FIFO within a particular month. It's just a matter of days though. It's not like they are going to run out of GCs this early :)

[leo07]

I Agree. but get your app out asap though.

[leo07]

It's already 7th. Why aren't people talking about vb and predictions and where's all the hungama?

[Feb262009]

Most Gurus have got their PD current and I guess they are busy doing their paper work. Time for next round of gurus to pop up and take over the tasks. :))


It's already 7th. Why aren't people talking about vb and predictions and where's all the hungama?

[bieber]

It's already 7th. Why aren't people talking about vb and predictions and where's all the hungama?
I will blame Nishanth :)

[nishant2200]

Yes, mine got reached on Dec 1st, and today check for wife cashed.

I personally feel one should try to get file reach asap, but not at the cost of accuracy or pissing off the lawyers or HR. I don't necessarily think the received date will play a huge major part in terms of any FIFO, its simple common sense though, that the sooner your file gets into someone's hands, the sooner it will be done with.

And for PD difference between Nov-Dec and Feb-March, the gap is too wide. I am pretty sure, at some point, there will be retrogression and controlled movement forward of dates, that shall take care of appropriate allocation of visas in order of PD.


Nishanth

Did you file on Dec 1st? My application is still being worked by HR, might take few more days. How does USCIS issues GC, based on FIFO or PD?
If I file on Dec 15th and a person with Feb 2008 PD files before me, lets say Dec 1st itself, is there a chance he gets GC before me?

Please clairfy

Thanks, and good luck

[leo07]

Good....What's the prediction for Jan VB?

[nishant2200]

It's already 7th. Why aren't people talking about vb and predictions and where's all the hungama?

Ok, here it is then, what currently feel, it's also put on first page by me.

By Jan or Feb VB, dates will be moved to end of June 2008, to accomodate the NVC notices. The natural processing time taken for 485 will help in taking care that demand data does not accumulate for EB2IC in next 1 month to 2 months.

After this, when DD starts creeping up, based on that amount as well as demand of EB1 and EB2 ROW quarterly, (if CO feels he cannot keep on pace with the increasing demand data with the QSP allocation), dates will stall or retrogress. Only way retrogression may not occur is if the staggered movement by CO (in batches of around 3.5 months) which he is doing, does not accumulate too much demand data since QSP takes care of the "current" demand generated for EB2IC on a consistent basis, otherwise if the demand data for EB2IC starts accumulating to a point of around 5k or more, then retrogression will occur to adjust for the QSP that is really available vs what is really needed.


I will blame Nishanth :)

:D

[TeddyKoochu]

Friends my projection is also on Page -1. All the very best to everyone.

Next VB (Jan 2012) in all probability will be the final intake if HR-3012 does not go through.
Possibility 50% - 2 months of additional intake to move to 15th MAY to 01-JUN-2008 (This is purely if CO feels additional Intake is required, this scenario is possible if CO is projecting 30K SOFAD in that case he only has 2K buffer may need more).
Possibility 50% - Dates retrogress back, this would mean 16.5K Sofad now has to be adjusted in 8 bulletins; this may mean that the dates go back to somewhere Jun 2007 for the first batch.

The prediction for the next bulletin is purely based the fact that the Sofad for 2012 maybe around 25k. With the current intakes there is a 7K buffer so if CO wants more buffer then he will go for more intake, if he feels it’s sufficient it might be time to retrogress. In either case if the movement is guarded or dates retrogress we can logically expect the same cycle to occur every year Oct - Dec. however atleast for next month there will be another factor the HR 3012 factor based on likelihood of passage in the senate then I believe forward movement will not stop itself.

The 7K buffer is calculated as - 8.5K (Approved) + 3.5K (PWMB APR 15 - JUL 15) + 20K (@2500 PM Intake for 8 Months) - 25K (SOFAD)

[Tomtuat]

2011 October: 3.0 months
2011 November: 3.5 months
2011 December: 4.5 months
2012 January: ?? :)

Let's keep our fingers crossed......

[cbpds1]

remember last time CO leaked the PD to the attorneys, do the attorneys meet CO every month?

2011 October: 3.0 months
2011 November: 3.5 months
2011 December: 4.5 months
2012 January: ?? :)

Let's keep our fingers crossed......

[Tomtuat]

remember last time CO leaked the PD to the attorneys, do the attorneys meet CO every month?

CO mentioned about similar movements in January and February in the October meeting.... I think the date will move to June 15 2008/June 22 2008/July 01 2008 in this bulletin.

[suninphx]

Friends my projection is also on Page -1. All the very best to everyone.

Next VB (Jan 2012) in all probability will be the final intake if HR-3012 does not go through.
Possibility 50% - 2 months of additional intake to move to 15th MAY to 01-JUN-2008 (This is purely if CO feels additional Intake is required, this scenario is possible if CO is projecting 30K SOFAD in that case he only has 2K buffer may need more).
Possibility 50% - Dates retrogress back, this would mean 16.5K Sofad now has to be adjusted in 8 bulletins; this may mean that the dates go back to somewhere Jun 2007 for the first batch.

The prediction for the next bulletin is purely based the fact that the Sofad for 2012 maybe around 25k. With the current intakes there is a 7K buffer so if CO wants more buffer then he will go for more intake, if he feels it’s sufficient it might be time to retrogress. In either case if the movement is guarded or dates retrogress we can logically expect the same cycle to occur every year Oct - Dec. however atleast for next month there will be another factor the HR 3012 factor based on likelihood of passage in the senate then I believe forward movement will not stop itself.

The 7K buffer is calculated as - 8.5K (Approved) + 3.5K (PWMB APR 15 - JUL 15) + 20K (@2500 PM Intake for 8 Months) - 25K (SOFAD)

Any movement crossing 1 Jun 2008 in next 2 bulletins will make us revisit our assumptions.

[maggie]

Folks,
If it is in wrong thread then please move it to an appropriate thread.

My wife & I applied for I485
Details:
PD = 12/23/2007
Center = Texas (TSC)
Applied on = 11/30/2011
Check deducted = 12/06/2011

Few funny things:
Never been happier to see money going away from our accounts.
We put an alert on check debit of >200 so I get an email alert and it did not work because they electronically deposited (ACH debit)

Good luck to all of you.

Note: Special thanks to Q, Teddy, Veni, Spec, Nishant and all other Gurus, which have become part of our daily life.

[imdeng]

I can think of three reasons. One - I think we are all quite spent with all the HR-3012 activity. Two - expectations from this VB is low. Three - many of our high volume posters are done with the process with the recent movement in PD and their attention has shifted to post-485 activities rather than DD and VB.

It's already 7th. Why aren't people talking about vb and predictions and where's all the hungama?

[vizcard]

I can think of three reasons. One - I think we are all quite spent with all the HR-3012 activity. Two - expectations from this VB is low. Three - many of our high volume posters are done with the process with the recent movement in PD and their attention has shifted to post-485 activities rather than DD and VB.

I think (1) and (2) are related. If it wasn't for HR3012 stalling, the optimism in the Jan VB would be higher. The actual movement might be the same regardless of HR3012 but emotionally people are disappointed. I for one believe that HR3012 would have had no impact on the Jan VB at all regardless of current status.

(3) is very true and understandably so. I think, that will change slightly when this application period is over... but in any case, its time for the next wave to step up.

[venkimakthal]

I think (1) and (2) are related. If it wasn't for HR3012 stalling, the optimism in the Jan VB would be higher. The actual movement might be the same regardless of HR3012 but emotionally people are disappointed. I for one believe that HR3012 would have had no impact on the Jan VB at all regardless of current status.

(3) is very true and understandably so. I think, that will change slightly when this application period is over... but in any case, its time for the next wave to step up.

That's correct, CO did not think that 3012 will be passed in house before Jan & Feb VB when commented on Oct regarding movement in Dec, Jan and Feb. Lets hope for the best

[gchopeful123]

I don't think HR.3012 will influence CO in any way. It is still a bill and not a law. It has to get thru Senate first and the last I heard it was put on hold. Personally, I really feel HR.3012 shd be passed asap, but until then lets hope that CO continues to progress dates...


That's correct, CO did not think that 3012 will be passed in house before Jan & Feb VB when commented on Oct regarding movement in Dec, Jan and Feb. Lets hope for the best

[Spectator]

sportsfan,

On the other hand, that is a problem introduced only because the Bill seeks to be retroactive to the beginning of FY2012. Had the implementation date been from FY2013, it would not exist at all and is something those that drafted it should have been aware of.

It is not CO's job to guess whether legislation will be introduced or pass. His job is to follow the law in existence. If the law changes, he must follow that new law from that point.

That said, if he follows the same model he did when encouraging new demand for F2A, he is likely to have sufficient demand anyway. As little as 01-July-08 might be sufficient, which is not out of the question even in the next 1-2 months. He still has time to generate additional approvable demand before the end of the year even up to around the April 2012 VB.

If he doesn't, then that is just how it is. The numbers lost would be minimal.

[vizcard]

In my honest opinion, as long as HR 3012 is not completely failed, there will be some impact on the dates. Or at least there should be.

Anything can happen quickly. HR 3012 can move in the Senate line blitz and simply become law suddenly. If that happens, where is the demand to fill EB2-IC pipe for FY 2012? It will be a gross injustice to waste thousands of numbers just because the CO was ridiculously slow in moving the dates.

Even if HR 3012 won't become law, CO can always retrogress later. In the absolute worst case, FY 2013 will take care of these green cards.

The danger of not building *sufficient* demand for EB2-IC is more. The probability of HR 3012 passing changes what is *sufficient*. By late January, we will know its prospects. So we should see movement in January/February and further than anticipated.

P.S. I might have to eat crow later because we have been disappointed by the lack of logic and idiocies of the DOS before. They might do an about face and start stalling/retrogressing from January bulletin itself. Sorry if I am giving false hopes to anyone.

the underlying premise is right.. but I think even with HR3012, EB2IC doesnt get more than 35K visas for 2011. So at most he "needs to" move it to Sept or Oct 2008 to accomodate HR3012 and he "needs to" do this by April 2012 to account for the processing time. So he has 3 more bulletins (after Jan) to wait for the verdict on HR3012.

[venkimakthal]

Generally what time in a day demand data will be out?

[vizcard]

Here's how I see it going down -
By Feb bulletin - July 1, 2008
March - no movement
April - Moves to Oct 2008 (if HR3012 goes through) OR Retrogresses to July 2007.

If retrogression happens, it will stay the same till the summer SO season.

[venkat]

My PD is June 24, 2008. Anytime someone says dates will reach 'July 1st' its like honey for my ears...Its a great feeling.
But as others said the general mood is pretty dull with very little buzz when compared to previous VB's. I hope CO moves the dates by*at least 2 months to keep the interest levels going. As we know this whole expectation was created by him back in October when he met the immigration lawyers, he now has to just keep up with his promise.

[wantgcnow]

CO didn't give any prediction in the Dec Bulletin ....So I hope he keeps up his old promise :-)