EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

[kd2008]

Ever since last bulletin is released, this thread became Q & A instead of predictions & calculations

I second the motion. and with that I become a Pandit. LOL!

[rdsingh79]

My company covered both mine and spouse's cost/fees etc...but again it will vary company to company depending on their internal policy.


this question is mostly for ppl in full time position...is ur company covering your spouse's legal (lawyer) and uscis fees or just your expenses?

[RRRRRR]

I was trying to find the question in your post. You seem to have all the correct information. What's the question?
I'll pitch in with what I know as I have gone through similar lane.
- PP is not possible for I-140 amendment. Reason being, original labor that you attached to your previous I-140 would have been moved to USCIS 'Archive' location. CIS will not have immediate access to your labor in order to finish the processing under 15 days.
- your attorney must have told you that PP will be rejected, PP fee will be returned and the application will be processed under regular processing. Application WILL NOT BE denied just because you filed the amendment in PP.

Hope it helps!
Thank Leo, so seems like USCIS does not have access to the Original labor inorder to approve amended 140 under the same category say Eb2. They told me that if you file PP then application may be rejected but i guess what you said makes sense because Labor is with USCIS and if they do not have access to it they shall continue processing the application. Thanks for your time

[Pedro Gonzales]

As we have already diluted this thread, we should either:
1. Clean this thread
2. Move EB2 Prediction to a clean new thread as Jan 2012 Predictions.

I have some time this afternoon, so I'm going into cleanup overdrive. I'm going to start on page 70 and see how many posts I can move. Your post is 2527 as I start. Lets see how low I can get that number.

This post will self destruct in ....

EDIT: Moved over 250 posts. Started on pg 70 and moved through to post VB release congratulatory messages. I created new threads where I moved the VB anticipatory messages, the 'congratulations' messages and all process and documentation related questions that didn't have any predictions or calculations relevance, from between pgs 70 through 79 (which initially constituted over 20 pages). I request the other Mods to do the same from the bottom of page 79 on.

[vizcard]

My company covered both mine and spouse's cost/fees etc...but again it will vary company to company depending on their internal policy.

same here. they reimburse for all expenses related to GC (AOS) as well as consulate fees for visa stamping.

[leo07]

No worries. But it's worth trying PP though, I have heard CIS processes some times. You have nothing to lose trying, you'll get your check back if they tend to process in regular.( minus any attorney fees of course :))

Thank Leo, so seems like USCIS does not have access to the Original labor inorder to approve amended 140 under the same category say Eb2. They told me that if you file PP then application may be rejected but i guess what you said makes sense because Labor is with USCIS and if they do not have access to it they shall continue processing the application. Thanks for your time

[leo07]

Lucky few :)

same here. they reimburse for all expenses related to GC (AOS) as well as consulate fees for visa stamping.

[leo07]

yeah, CO threw all the calculations out of the window for the last few bulletins.( in a good way:)) Unless we can understand what's going on until Feb/March bulletin, it's hard for predictions I guess.

Ever since last bulletin is released, this thread became Q & A instead of predictions & calculations

[parsvnath]

It was in the document sent by my lawyers for AOS for myself.

[EB2Jun08]

Hi Gurus, could you please answer the couple of below questions.

My company is being acquired by another company and they recently applied for I-140 amendment. if my PD (jun 13,08)becomes current in next couple of bulletins, Can i still apply for 485 with pending amendment process ? My attorney mentioned that we can apply using amended 140 receipt but old PD is not listed on that receipt, once they review the case they might assign the correct PD but is it possible to apply 485 with old company's 140 approval copy which has the correct PD ?

And also my wife birth certificate has place of birth name spelled differently in birth certificate and passport, can you suggest what action i can take here.

I will delete this message as soon as i get the answer. Thanks

[Pedro Gonzales]

Hi Gurus, could you please answer the couple of below questions.

My company is being acquired by another company and they recently applied for I-140 amendment. if my PD (jun 13,08)becomes current in next couple of bulletins, Can i still apply for 485 with pending amendment process ? My attorney mentioned that we can apply using amended 140 receipt but old PD is not listed on that receipt, once they review the case they might assign the correct PD but is it possible to apply 485 with old company's 140 approval copy which has the correct PD ?

And also my wife birth certificate has place of birth name spelled differently in birth certificate and passport, can you suggest what action i can take here.

I will delete this message as soon as i get the answer. Thanks

There is an extensive birth cert thread that may have your answer. Also, I pushed some recent messages on employers being acquired to its own thread (Both are within the I485 universe).

[veni001]

Please follow the link ---USCIS Filing Tips for EAD/AP (http://www.aila.org/content/default.aspx?docid=37654)

[veni001]

Hi Gurus, could you please answer the couple of below questions.

My company is being acquired by another company and they recently applied for I-140 amendment. if my PD (jun 13,08)becomes current in next couple of bulletins, Can i still apply for 485 with pending amendment process ? My attorney mentioned that we can apply using amended 140 receipt but old PD is not listed on that receipt, once they review the case they might assign the correct PD but is it possible to apply 485 with old company's 140 approval copy which has the correct PD ?

And also my wife birth certificate has place of birth name spelled differently in birth certificate and passport, can you suggest what action i can take here.

I will delete this message as soon as i get the answer. Thanks

EB2Jun08,

Yes, include copy of i140 approval(old) along with receipt for i140 amendment (pending).

Spouse's Birth Certificate: It is advisable to get place of birth corrected in the passport.

[Reader]

EB2Jun08,

Spouse's Birth Certificate: It is advisable to get place of birth corrected in the passport.


In my wife's passport, the place of birth is completely different from the birth certificate which are two adjacent cities. I think it is not that simple to get the place of birth corrected in the passport as it requires getting a court order from first class magistrate. I am wondering whether any one has done that successfully ?

[veni001]

In my wife's passport, the place of birth is completely different from the birth certificate which are two adjacent cities. I think it is not that simple to get the place of birth corrected in the passport as it requires getting a court order from first class magistrate. I am wondering whether any one has done that successfully ?

In that event, just get the affidavits done.

[mesan123]

I am in same situation in regard to the birth certificate...my birthplace is different in passport and birth certificate. in my passport they have my district name as birth place and in my birth certificate it is as my town. It is really tough to get passport corrected, the indian embassy mentioned they need court order from india and some more documents which are tough to get.

but i found another work around , but i dont know if this would be accepted, indian embassy in USA gives you birth certificate as per the passports.

but my question is will the birth certificate issued by indian embassy in USA can be used as birth certificate proof?

for supporting that i can get affidavits from parents, but i just wanted to know if i can use that birth certificate.




In that event, just get the affidavits done.

[nayekal]

I am in same situation in regard to the birth certificate...my birthplace is different in passport and birth certificate. in my passport they have my district name as birth place and in my birth certificate it is as my town. It is really tough to get passport corrected, the indian embassy mentioned they need court order from india and some more documents which are tough to get.

but i found another work around , but i dont know if this would be accepted, indian embassy in USA gives you birth certificate as per the passports.

but my question is will the birth certificate issued by indian embassy in USA can be used as birth certificate proof?

for supporting that i can get affidavits from parents, but i just wanted to know if i can use that birth certificate.

I got Birth Certificate from Indian Consulate. It is just a piece paper, not on Indian Consulate letter head. They copy all details from passport and will state that all information declared is as per what has been present in the passport. So, this is useless and I also heard that some one got an RFE for that.

I got 2 affidavits from my parents and as per my Attorney, that is enough.

[nishant2200]

http://www.ilw.com/seminars/august2002_citation2b.pdf

How they process 485. Old doc but very interesting to read.

Page 161 onwards is adjudication section, Very interesting

Also page 237 about I134, page 243 about IT returns

Also see about public charge (why W2 maybe) - page 171, and birth certificates page 172

[Karma1979]

Guys, please make sure you are using the current form versions available on USCIS websites. I went for my medical check up yesterday and they were still using the old version, thankfully I caught it.

[rdsingh79]

I think it is acceptable to use either version between Nov 1 to Dec31. New version must be used starting Jan 1st. Correct me if i am wrong.


Guys, please make sure you are using the current form versions available on USCIS websites. I went for my medical check up yesterday and they were still using the old version, thankfully I caught it.

[Kanmani]

rdsingh you are correct.
BUT we cannot argue with the adjudicators if they raise an RFE , as we dont have any direct conversation with them to explain the medicals or other forms were filled in between nov to dec, the said admissible period . Why unnecessary headache ?

[kumarbos]

Any idea when Nov 2008 EB2I will be able to file 485? Thanks

[longgcque]

Nishant, this was helpful to get insight into how adjudication works. Thanks for sharing


http://www.ilw.com/seminars/august2002_citation2b.pdf

How they process 485. Old doc but very interesting to read.

Page 161 onwards is adjudication section, Very interesting

Also page 237 about I134, page 243 about IT returns

Also see about public charge (why W2 maybe) - page 171, and birth certificates page 172

[GCKnowHow]

this question is mostly for ppl in full time position...is ur company covering your spouse's legal (lawyer) and uscis fees or just your expenses?

My company covers all fees of mine, I have to pay for my wife's USCIS fees only.

[qblogfan]

I want to add one point. Before year 2005, it was very difficult for a Chinese student to get a visa to US. Although many of them had full scholarship, the visa approval rate was lower than 30%. It was almost impossible to get a visa without a research/teaching assistantship or fellowship. Something dramatically changed in 2005 and the student visa approval rate went to 90% or even higher after 2005. I think DOS changed their policy to make money from education.

Before 2005 most of the Chinese students in US had teaching/research assistantship and they were a group of hard working students. After 2005 a large percentage of the Chinese students in US are using their own money to study. They are from rich families. Although the total number of the Chinese students went up after 2005, the quality went down significantly. Most of them only know how to spend their parents' money and they are not competitive in job market at all. That's why the Chinese PERM number went down after 2007. Most of these students only play computer games, chase ladies, spend money and sleep in class, etc. Many of them return home to enjoy the wealth from their parents.


The proportion of students that go back after graduating is considered quite high for China compared to India. Plus, Chinese students usually look for PhD+Academia+EB1 route rather than MS/MBA+IT/Businesses+EB2 route that Indian students usually take. Although the math is still undeniable, EB category will remain an India+China+EverybodyElse scenario. HR3012 makes complete sense for this context.

[imdeng]

Ahh - I should have checked the Advocacy Forum before posting the AGREE Act posts. It is already being discussed there. Mods - please shift my last three posts to the Advocacy Forum. Thanks.

Update: Hey I am a Sensei Now! :-) Whats next?

[cm9201]

Hi Experts, my wife came to US on H4 in 2005 and after 3 years in 2008 we applied H1 and then worked for 6 months, her employer revoked H1B and not informed her. After 8 months of revoke when she was planning to change back to H4 employer told her H1B was revoked. We consulted a attorny and she applied status change and said if we get RFE then we can apply for NPT. We recieved NOID aftre 4 months and was not confident with attorny . Then we consulted murhty law firm and she advised her to go India and get H4 stamped then re-enter. During all this time her I94 is valid and murhty law firm told us it is 'out of status' but 'not illigal stay' as I94 is still has valid date and stamping should not be an issue.
As per her advise she went to India got her H4 stamp without any issue and re-entered US and maitaing proper status there after.
During all this she was out of status for 14 months, does 245(k) apply to this and she is 'out of status' moe than 180 days.
Now my question is we are very close to apply for 485 soon together. does this out of status will result any issue during AOS? and what we can do to resolve it.
any suggesions and help in this regard is very much appriciated.

[zztopfan]

Ahh - I should have checked the Advocacy Forum before posting the AGREE Act posts. It is already being discussed there. Mods - please shift my last three posts to the Advocacy Forum. Thanks.

Update: Hey I am a Sensei Now! :-) Whats next?
Next you will be Master Yoda of this blog

[Pedro Gonzales]

Ahh - I should have checked the Advocacy Forum before posting the AGREE Act posts. It is already being discussed there. Mods - please shift my last three posts to the Advocacy Forum. Thanks.

Update: Hey I am a Sensei Now! :-) Whats next?

Done. Also, Kanmani made some relevant counterpoints on that thread to your concerns. The Coons/Rubio proposal is actually a good thing if you support ending country caps.

[mygctracker]

Nishant,

Quite interesting & comprehensive AOS procedure info. Thanks for sharing.




http://www.ilw.com/seminars/august2002_citation2b.pdf

How they process 485. Old doc but very interesting to read.

Page 161 onwards is adjudication section, Very interesting

Also page 237 about I134, page 243 about IT returns

Also see about public charge (why W2 maybe) - page 171, and birth certificates page 172

[mygctracker]

I'm not an Immigration expert but I think for AOS they look whether or not applicant maintained valid status since last US entry. Prior violations may be ignored.
Please check with a good immigration attorney!

Thanks!



Hi Experts, my wife came to US on H4 in 2005 and after 3 years in 2008 we applied H1 and then worked for 6 months, her employer revoked H1B and not informed her. After 8 months of revoke when she was planning to change back to H4 employer told her H1B was revoked. We consulted a attorny and she applied status change and said if we get RFE then we can apply for NPT. We recieved NOID aftre 4 months and was not confident with attorny . Then we consulted murhty law firm and she advised her to go India and get H4 stamped then re-enter. During all this time her I94 is valid and murhty law firm told us it is 'out of status' but 'not illigal stay' as I94 is still has valid date and stamping should not be an issue.
As per her advise she went to India got her H4 stamp without any issue and re-entered US and maitaing proper status there after.
During all this she was out of status for 14 months, does 245(k) apply to this and she is 'out of status' moe than 180 days.
Now my question is we are very close to apply for 485 soon together. does this out of status will result any issue during AOS? and what we can do to resolve it.
any suggesions and help in this regard is very much appriciated.

[luckycub]

My PD is Oct-23-2009, EB2 NIW, CN. Do I have a chance to become current before Spring 2013? Thank you.

[nayekal]

Hi Experts, my wife came to US on H4 in 2005 and after 3 years in 2008 we applied H1 and then worked for 6 months, her employer revoked H1B and not informed her. After 8 months of revoke when she was planning to change back to H4 employer told her H1B was revoked. We consulted a attorny and she applied status change and said if we get RFE then we can apply for NPT. We recieved NOID aftre 4 months and was not confident with attorny . Then we consulted murhty law firm and she advised her to go India and get H4 stamped then re-enter. During all this time her I94 is valid and murhty law firm told us it is 'out of status' but 'not illigal stay' as I94 is still has valid date and stamping should not be an issue.
As per her advise she went to India got her H4 stamp without any issue and re-entered US and maitaing proper status there after.
During all this she was out of status for 14 months, does 245(k) apply to this and she is 'out of status' moe than 180 days.
Now my question is we are very close to apply for 485 soon together. does this out of status will result any issue during AOS? and what we can do to resolve it.
any suggesions and help in this regard is very much appriciated.


http://www.immigration-information.com/forums/adjustment-of-status-13/245k-rule-does-it-really-work-9988/

As per Ron,
Re: 245K rule: Does it really work?

I think you intended to write "before your last admission." Section 245(k) excuses all status violations for employment based adjustment applicants if the status violations occurred prior the applicant's last lawful entry into the United States. This is an absolute rule and is not subject to the exercise of discretion on the part of the adjudicator.

[grnwtg]

I remember this case on Murthy.com ( probably this is yours as i see all scenarios are same ). Look like this is complicated case, even though your wife went to India and got h4 approved ( on h4 legality), i still believe its complicated case and definetly you should stick to high profile lawyer.
My sincere advise is do not take opinions from these forums for your case as no one is really immigration expert (even though they have theoritical knowledge)



Hi Experts, my wife came to US on H4 in 2005 and after 3 years in 2008 we applied H1 and then worked for 6 months, her employer revoked H1B and not informed her. After 8 months of revoke when she was planning to change back to H4 employer told her H1B was revoked. We consulted a attorny and she applied status change and said if we get RFE then we can apply for NPT. We recieved NOID aftre 4 months and was not confident with attorny . Then we consulted murhty law firm and she advised her to go India and get H4 stamped then re-enter. During all this time her I94 is valid and murhty law firm told us it is 'out of status' but 'not illigal stay' as I94 is still has valid date and stamping should not be an issue.
As per her advise she went to India got her H4 stamp without any issue and re-entered US and maitaing proper status there after.
During all this she was out of status for 14 months, does 245(k) apply to this and she is 'out of status' moe than 180 days.
Now my question is we are very close to apply for 485 soon together. does this out of status will result any issue during AOS? and what we can do to resolve it.
any suggesions and help in this regard is very much appriciated.

[venkimakthal]

Gurus, quick questions, in I-693 form:
1) A#, do i need to write A followed by 9 digit number or just 9 digit number
2) If we do not have middle name, just need to leave it blank or type N/A
3) If no SSN then need to leave blank or N/A or ITIN

[Jan2008]

http://www.ilw.com/seminars/august2002_citation2b.pdf

How they process 485. Old doc but very interesting to read.

Page 161 onwards is adjudication section, Very interesting

Also page 237 about I134, page 243 about IT returns

Also see about public charge (why W2 maybe) - page 171, and birth certificates page 172

Nishant Bhai,

Thanks for the detail doc.. I hope this will help a lot of people with little queries.. I have one too.. I had posted a few days ago- I have been in the US for about 6 years now on H1. Never went back to India due various reasons one of which is the obvious hassle of stamping and with my parents travelling here frequently. My spouse came on H4 and 3 years later moved to H1.. has been working ever since and like me never went back to India. So pratically both our visas are expired on the passport but have valid H1's and my I-140. I became current in Dec bulletin and hoping to apply on Dec 1st. If we decide to plan a trip in March/ April timeframe, due you see any issue here? I've emailed my lawyer but he states "Let's get the EAD/ AP first and we will cross the bridge when we get there".

I am really looking to get some advice here or general sense if we will have to face any issues if we decide to travel using EAD/ AP. I haven't left the country in the last 6 years and this gives me nightmares thinking I will jeopardise everything for not getting my stampings. Please advice

[leo07]

If that was the case any violator will leave the country once and get back in clean. I don't think it's true. They look for all previous 'stays'. I think ignoring/not-ignoring a violation is at the discretion of the particular consular officer.

Wasn't Obama's aunt in news last year for a similar situation? May be I'm remembering the case incorrectly?


I'm not an Immigration expert but I think for AOS they look whether or not applicant maintained valid status since last US entry. Prior violations may be ignored.
Please check with a good immigration attorney!

Thanks!

[leo07]

(1)I have had 'A' followed by number, just as CIS allocated the number for me
(2) leave it blank.
(3) leave blank.

Gurus, quick questions, in I-693 form:
1) A#, do i need to write A followed by 9 digit number or just 9 digit number
2) If we do not have middle name, just need to leave it blank or type N/A
3) If no SSN then need to leave blank or N/A or ITIN

[suninphx]

Nishant Bhai,

Thanks for the detail doc.. I hope this will help a lot of people with little queries.. I have one too.. I had posted a few days ago- I have been in the US for about 6 years now on H1. Never went back to India due various reasons one of which is the obvious hassle of stamping and with my parents travelling here frequently. My spouse came on H4 and 3 years later moved to H1.. has been working ever since and like me never went back to India. So pratically both our visas are expired on the passport but have valid H1's and my I-140. I became current in Dec bulletin and hoping to apply on Dec 1st. If we decide to plan a trip in March/ April timeframe, due you see any issue here? I've emailed my lawyer but he states "Let's get the EAD/ AP first and we will cross the bridge when we get there".

I am really looking to get some advice here or general sense if we will have to face any issues if we decide to travel using EAD/ AP. I haven't left the country in the last 6 years and this gives me nightmares thinking I will jeopardise everything for not getting my stampings. Please advice

Jan 2008,

I missed this question last time you posted. Sorry about that.

By ' travel using EAD/ AP' you mean trying to come back using AP- I assume. Technically it should not be a problem as your case seems pretty straight forward from what you have described here. Also if you attempt H1 stamping then also technically it should not be peoblem depending upon specifics of the case(now this a has big luck factor too..I am sure you know that :). Thats where I suggested you to attempt H1 first and keep AP as backup.
As your lawyer said you can discuss your options with him when you get EAD /AP.

HTH

[Kanmani]

More details at Murthy's in connection with 245(k) clause

http://www.murthy.com/news/n_sugemp.html

Most recent USCIS memorandum added to Ajdudicators manual http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Laws/Memoranda/Static_Files_Memoranda/Archives%201998-2008/2008/245(k)_14jul08.pdf

cm9201 , I think you are good after reading this from the above memo

Counting against the 180 days timeframe in (d)(1).(

A) General Guidelines. If the adjudicator determines that an employment-based adjustment of status applicant described in (d)(2) above is subject to any of the bars to adjustment of status set forth in Sections 245(c)(2), (c)(7), or (c)(8), then the adjudicator must determine whether the aggregate period in which the alien failed to continuously maintain lawful status, worked without authorization, or otherwise violated the terms and conditions of the alien’s admission since the date of alien’s last lawful admission to the United States is 180 days or less.
The guidance below describes the periods of time to be examined for purposes of calculating time against the 180-day period.
• The adjudicator must only examine the period from the date of the alien’s last lawful admission to the United States and must not count violations that occurred before the alien’s last lawful admission.

Note: Please consult an immigration attorney and dont take this as a legal advice

[leo07]

Thanks for the doc Nishanth.
Do you know if the '60' days wait time is in series or in parallel for each of the agency, before adjudicating the file?

http://www.ilw.com/seminars/august2002_citation2b.pdf

How they process 485. Old doc but very interesting to read.

Page 161 onwards is adjudication section, Very interesting

Also page 237 about I134, page 243 about IT returns

Also see about public charge (why W2 maybe) - page 171, and birth certificates page 172

[venkimakthal]

(1)I have had 'A' followed by number, just as CIS allocated the number for me
(2) leave it blank.
(3) leave blank.

Thank you Leo

[bieber]

'Since last visit' is strange clause, I think only in case of employer cancelling H1 and informing CIS it will trigger the out of status stuff, and even if you are out of status for small period and your new h1 has I94 with it then you are good

if your status was an issue, the new h1 will be issued without I94 and one need to leave the country and reenter (they can use visa if it's still valid and stamped based on previous h1, otherwise stamping is required)

[nishant2200]

Hi Experts, my wife came to US on H4 in 2005 and after 3 years in 2008 we applied H1 and then worked for 6 months, her employer revoked H1B and not informed her. After 8 months of revoke when she was planning to change back to H4 employer told her H1B was revoked. We consulted a attorny and she applied status change and said if we get RFE then we can apply for NPT. We recieved NOID aftre 4 months and was not confident with attorny . Then we consulted murhty law firm and she advised her to go India and get H4 stamped then re-enter. During all this time her I94 is valid and murhty law firm told us it is 'out of status' but 'not illigal stay' as I94 is still has valid date and stamping should not be an issue.
As per her advise she went to India got her H4 stamp without any issue and re-entered US and maitaing proper status there after.
During all this she was out of status for 14 months, does 245(k) apply to this and she is 'out of status' moe than 180 days.
Now my question is we are very close to apply for 485 soon together. does this out of status will result any issue during AOS? and what we can do to resolve it.
any suggesions and help in this regard is very much appriciated.

reason why attorney asked to get H4 stamped and enter, so that your clock starts ticking again. the 180 days is after your last successful entry into US. I believe, although things like this best talked with lawyer.

edit: Noticed that Kanmani already put this in exact legal verbiage and clause above. thank you ma'm. credit to her. I still say one should take a 30 minute consultation with lawyer and sort this out for good. everyones case specifics are different. lawyer is best judge.

[nishant2200]

Thanks for the doc Nishanth.
Do you know if the '60' days wait time is in series or in parallel for each of the agency, before adjudicating the file?

I can't make it out from this doc, but has to be parallel. it would be totally stupid if its series.

[cm9201]

Thanks Kanmami, Nishant2210, this is helpful information. I took appointment with Murthy law firm and discussed this in 2010, she said once H4 stamped and re-entered US then 485 may not be issue and need not to worry. before I file 485 I will talk to them again.

Thanks for your advise.

[cm9201]

Obama aunt was staying in country illegal not out of status. there is clear difference in out of status and illegal stay.

[EB2-03252009]

Hello Everyone,

I have been following this blog for more than 4-5 Months, and needless to say, it has the best info and enlightened me with very useful information. Thanks to everyone for sharing their info and I hope I will be active too as some of them out here. Kudos! Keep up the good work!!!

:D

PD - 03/25/2009

[MANTRAM]

Any Nov 2011 filers who got hard copy of receipt or biometrics appointment letter?

PD: 10Oct2011
AOS package sent: 4Nov2011 to NSC
Receipt: Did not get it yet

[imdeng]

I have a request to all regular members of the forum. When you encounter a non-prediction/calculation related question that is not urgent/emergency on this thread, please reply asking to post in the Q&A Sub-Forum which is created specifically for these questions. Any answers that you wish to post, please post in the Q&A Sub-Forum only.

I know the traffic is on this thread hence the appeal of this thread. If there is an emergency or urgent question - then we should surely rally around and discuss solutions right here in interest of time. However, questions like - anybody got receipt yet?, what do I do for birth certificate, is there a good civil surgeon in Alaska, what is EVL, etc etc - should not discussed in this thread and the person asking the question should be politely directed to the appropriate sub-forum..

[MANTRAM]

I have a request to all regular members of the forum. When you encounter a non-prediction/calculation related question that is not urgent/emergency on this thread, please reply asking to post in the Q&A Sub-Forum which is created specifically for these questions. Any answers that you wish to post, please post in the Q&A Sub-Forum only.

I know the traffic is on this thread hence the appeal of this thread. If there is an emergency or urgent question - then we should surely rally around and discuss solutions right here in interest of time. However, questions like - anybody got receipt yet?, what do I do for birth certificate, is there a good civil surgeon in Alaska, what is EVL, etc etc - should not discussed in this thread and the person asking the question should be politely directed to the appropriate sub-forum..

Well said & I agree with you. I will move my question to Q&A section. Sorry for being a pain.

[imdeng]

In an attempt to understand DoS MO, I was looking at old PD movements and I found one strange EB2I movement. After the 07/07 fiasco, EB2I PD was retrogressed to pre-fiasco level of Apr-04 - which makes sense. However, in Aug/Sept 2008, PD moved to June-06 and Aug-06, it quickly then regressed back to Apr-03 in Oct-2008. We did not Aug-06 level again until June-2011! I was not actively following this then to have no idea what happened.

Was it the usual case of DoS advancing dates to move CP cases so as to avoid visa number wasted? If it happened in 2008, could it happen again??

Link for the data: http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentIndia.pdf

[belmontboy]

Any Nov 2011 filers who got hard copy of receipt or biometrics appointment letter?

PD: 10Oct2011
AOS package sent: 4Nov2011 to NSC
Receipt: Did not get it yet

same here.
PD - Oct 30, 2007
AOS filed - Nov 3, 2011. Sent to Phoenix LockBox
Receipt: Not yet.

However, one of my colleague who filed a day before got his receipt on nov 11. Weird!

[asankaran]

I saw this at niunational.com and pasted based on Chrome's translation.

On Wed, Nov 16, 2011 at 10:10 AM, Oppenheim, Charlie W wrote:

As you mentioned the demand based on the 2007 filings has been acted
upon. In the past I had that demand which could be acted upon once it
was determined that there would be "otherwise unused" numbers, and
approximately how many. Now I am must generate new filings based on
the rapid forward movement of the cut-off dates. Once that demand
begins to be reported it will result in the cut-off date slowing,
stopping, retrogressing, or becoming unavailable. So there is likely
to be much more fluctuation than has been experienced in recent years,
when although they were not the moves as early as some would have liked,
at least there was not the significantly increased risk of volatility.


-----Original Message-----
From: contact@niunational.org
Sent: Tuesday, November 15, 2011 10:30 PM
To: Oppenheim, Charlie W
Subject: Questions regarding the Demand Data from New Immigrants United
(NIU)



Dear Mr. Oppenheim,

Thank you for your last reply.

As the December bulletin came up, we saw another promising leap with
regard to all categories. Thank you and your team, as always, for
your industrial work!

We also noticed that the recent Demand Data used in the determination
of the December bulletin
(http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates.pdf)

indicates the Demand prior to January 1, 2008 to be 25 for China.
However, many of our members who have missed the boat during July 2007
have recently submitted I-485 Forms and received Fingerprint Notices.
They are more than 25 and thus obviously were not calculated towards
the Demand Data. We all know that there are certain post-I-485 phases
(e.g., Receipt Notice, Fingerprint Notice, Name Check Clear, EAD/AP
Approval and Final Approval), so exactly which phase is considered in
calculating the Demand Data?

Moreover, would you be able to share with us how the cut-off date
would move forward in the second quarter of FY-2012? Is it going to
be as promising as the first quarter goes, or else? Thank you.

Sincerely Yours,
Executive Team,
New Immigrants United

[TeddyKoochu]

In an attempt to understand DoS MO, I was looking at old PD movements and I found one strange EB2I movement. After the 07/07 fiasco, EB2I PD was retrogressed to pre-fiasco level of Apr-04 - which makes sense. However, in Aug/Sept 2008, PD moved to June-06 and Aug-06, it quickly then regressed back to Apr-03 in Oct-2008. We did not Aug-06 level again until June-2011! I was not actively following this then to have no idea what happened.

Was it the usual case of DoS advancing dates to move CP cases so as to avoid visa number wasted? If it happened in 2008, could it happen again??

Link for the data: http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentIndia.pdf

This is based on what I read on forums, I became active only in Sep 2009. The dates were moved to 2006 in 2008 as a knee jerk reaction to desperately grab preadjudicated EB2 I/C cases after the spillover rule changes in 2007. Thanks to this around 10% of the folks in 2005 and 2006 got approved but people as far back in 2003 were waiting. Most of the approvals came from TSC, basically they approved cases where things like name check etc were cleared, in those days things were neither automated or organized the way they are today. Now despite this desperate reaction enough EB2 I/C cases could not be found and 6K of spillover still went to EB3 ROW. This is one of the reasons why they should play it safe with a larger buffer so that law is followed in the true spirit. Basically in 2009 things became streamlined and EB2 I/C finally reached into early 2005 most of it was in the Sep 2009 VB i.e. 1 Year of movement that is when the clinical approvals of being current and being approved in the same month started. Then next year we reached May 2006 and then next year to APR 15 2007 and finally a new chapter of intake is being written. Iam sure if those 6K numbers were given to EB2 I/C back in 2008 this intake would have happened a little earlier itself as the numbers would have reached a very close point at the end of FY 2011. Another example of injustice though smaller in terms of numbers but probably worse is that EB3 I/C did not get their regular quota for a few years you can imagine how bad it would be to get 500 out of 2800 visas less in a year. The Chinese folks filed a lawsuit to have this corrected, probably it is due to their efforts that things are better now and allocations are finally being done correctly. The Eb3 incident happened because EB3 M & P gobbled up far more numbers that they were supposed to get and Eb3 had to be set to U because the annual cap was consumed.

[imdeng]

Thanks asankaran. My takes:
1. People have direct email access to CO! Wow!! Chinese have much better network with DoS than Indians.
2. Cut-off date slowing, stopping, retrogressing, or becoming unavailable: Everything is on the table. Depends upon how much demand shows up.
3. Since not much additional documentarily qualified demand is going to show up before the next bulletin, we should expect further movement (unless USCIS provides DoS with data on how many new 485s they are receiving - I doubt that)



As you mentioned the demand based on the 2007 filings has been acted
upon. In the past I had that demand which could be acted upon once it
was determined that there would be "otherwise unused" numbers, and
approximately how many. Now I am must generate new filings based on
the rapid forward movement of the cut-off dates. Once that demand
begins to be reported it will result in the cut-off date slowing,
stopping, retrogressing, or becoming unavailable. So there is likely
to be much more fluctuation than has been experienced in recent years,
when although they were not the moves as early as some would have liked,
at least there was not the significantly increased risk of volatility.

[Waiting4Ever]

Also in 2008,2009 and 2010 the demand seems to be really low.

Looked up this data from http://flcdatacenter.com/CasePerm.aspx

Country PDyear casestatus PermCount
CHINA 2008 CERTIFIED 1210
CHINA 2008 CERTIFIED-EXPIRED 2118
CHINA 2008 DENIED 353
CHINA 2008 WITHDRAWN 106
CHINA 2009 Certified 1090
CHINA 2009 Certified-Expired 1022
CHINA 2009 Denied 199
CHINA 2009 Withdrawn 205
CHINA 2010 Certified 1778
CHINA 2010 Certified-Expired 2274
CHINA 2010 Denied 338
CHINA 2010 Withdrawn 168
INDIA 2008 CERTIFIED 7198
INDIA 2008 CERTIFIED-EXPIRED 9371
INDIA 2008 DENIED 1676
INDIA 2008 WITHDRAWN 593
INDIA 2009 Certified 6403
INDIA 2009 Certified-Expired 4984
INDIA 2009 Denied 971
INDIA 2009 Withdrawn 1174
INDIA 2010 Certified 14872
INDIA 2010 Certified-Expired 14058
INDIA 2010 Denied 1981
INDIA 2010 Withdrawn 1085

So all together there are 15K Perms approved in for PD in 2008. 13.5K in 2009 and 28K in 2010 for IC. Total of 56K. With 60% Eb2:EB3 ratio = 34K.

So technically with one 30K Spillover, we should be becoming current in a year or so. Whats wrong with this picture?

Assuming:
1. No Demand destruction.
2. All 2007 cases are allocated visas by end of FY 2012.
3. Eb2:EB3 ratio of 60:40, like others were using.

Side note: Adding a snapshot of rest of world: Certified-Widthdrawn and Certified respectively.
2008: 16626;12684
2009: 7455;8584
2010: 21248;16007

Altogether: 82604(Eb2:50K;EB3:32K). This kind of EB2 inflow shouldn't be able to fill up 140K visas....

What am i Missing?










Thanks asankaran. My takes:
1. People have direct email access to CO! Wow!! Chinese have much better network with DoS than Indians.
2. Cut-off date slowing, stopping, retrogressing, or becoming unavailable: Everything is on the table. Depends upon how much demand shows up.
3. Since not much additional documentarily qualified demand is going to show up before the next bulletin, we should expect further movement (unless USCIS provides DoS with data on how many new 485s they are receiving - I doubt that)

[imdeng]

Found a DoS report on LPR (Green Card) population in US. Interesting read: http://www.dhs.gov/xlibrary/assets/statistics/publications/lpr_fr_2010.pdf

Some quick points:
1. US admitted around 1.1 million LPR every year in the period 2008 - 2010.
2. Biggest chunk: around 0.5M were non restricted family based (immediate family of citizens)
3. Capped Categories: ~215K FB, ~150K EB per year, Diversity ~50K per year
4. The Category "Refugees and Asylees" got more green cards than EB category in past three years ~150K per year!

Country-wise visa allocation (all categories combined) in past three years:

Country.....2010.....2009.....2008
Mexico......139K.....165K.....190K
China........71K......64K......80K
India........69K......57K......63K

[imdeng]

Spec has done a lot of work on PERM data and his results are summarized here: http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?50-PERM-Data-and-Calculations

You would note there that while 2009 is indeed light, 2008 is almost as dense as 2007 without considering any demand destruction. Could it be that your numbers are off because you are not considering Certified-Expired.



So all together there are 15K Perms approved in for PD in 2008. 13.5K in 2009 and 28K in 2010 for IC. Total of 56K. With 60% Eb2:EB3 ratio = 34K.

Side note: Adding a snapshot of rest of world: Certified-Widthdrawn and Certified respectively.
2008: 16626;12684
2009: 7455;8584
2010: 21248;16007

Altogether: 82604(Eb2:50K;EB3:32K). This kind of EB2 inflow shouldn't be able to fill up 140K visas....

What am i Missing?

[Pundit Arjun]

Waiting4Ever - Buddy, I believe you missed to consider the dependents in your numbers. The gurus have been using a ratio of 2.04/perm for the dependents.


Spec has done a lot of work on PERM data and his results are summarized here: http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?50-PERM-Data-and-Calculations

You would note there that while 2009 is indeed light, 2008 is almost as dense as 2007 without considering any demand destruction. Could it be that your numbers are off because you are not considering Certified-Expired.

[GhostWriter]

The FY 2008 file corresponds to all the cases approved in FY 2008 and not the priority date of 2008. PD is to be derived from case number. See this link by Spec and Veni
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...d-Calculations



Also in 2008,2009 and 2010 the demand seems to be really low.

Looked up this data from http://flcdatacenter.com/CasePerm.aspx

Country PDyear casestatus PermCount
CHINA 2008 CERTIFIED 1210
CHINA 2008 CERTIFIED-EXPIRED 2118
CHINA 2008 DENIED 353
CHINA 2008 WITHDRAWN 106
CHINA 2009 Certified 1090
CHINA 2009 Certified-Expired 1022
CHINA 2009 Denied 199
CHINA 2009 Withdrawn 205
CHINA 2010 Certified 1778
CHINA 2010 Certified-Expired 2274
CHINA 2010 Denied 338
CHINA 2010 Withdrawn 168
INDIA 2008 CERTIFIED 7198
INDIA 2008 CERTIFIED-EXPIRED 9371
INDIA 2008 DENIED 1676
INDIA 2008 WITHDRAWN 593
INDIA 2009 Certified 6403
INDIA 2009 Certified-Expired 4984
INDIA 2009 Denied 971
INDIA 2009 Withdrawn 1174
INDIA 2010 Certified 14872
INDIA 2010 Certified-Expired 14058
INDIA 2010 Denied 1981
INDIA 2010 Withdrawn 1085

So all together there are 15K Perms approved in for PD in 2008. 13.5K in 2009 and 28K in 2010 for IC. Total of 56K. With 60% Eb2:EB3 ratio = 34K.

So technically with one 30K Spillover, we should be becoming current in a year or so. Whats wrong with this picture?

Assuming:
1. No Demand destruction.
2. All 2007 cases are allocated visas by end of FY 2012.
3. Eb2:EB3 ratio of 60:40, like others were using.

Side note: Adding a snapshot of rest of world: Certified-Widthdrawn and Certified respectively.
2008: 16626;12684
2009: 7455;8584
2010: 21248;16007

Altogether: 82604(Eb2:50K;EB3:32K). This kind of EB2 inflow shouldn't be able to fill up 140K visas....

What am i Missing?

[nishant2200]

Definitely he is being merciful to EB2IC.

From the email, if one takes very positive interpretation, it seems to me that our thoughts that he is actually going for a count of incoming in early November etc is not happening. He is just doing staggered movements in batches of 3-4 months at a time, and until they actually turn into a qualified demand which he deems is significant enough to overcome his projection of demand he wants, he is going to let it flow in. This does augur very well for folks in March 15th 2008 onwards.

All indications so far then seem to be positive. Right now predictions calculations have taken back seat to CO's gameplan.


This is based on what I read on forums, I became active only in Sep 2009. The dates were moved to 2006 in 2008 as a knee jerk reaction to desperately grab preadjudicated EB2 I/C cases after the spillover rule changes in 2007. Thanks to this around 10% of the folks in 2005 and 2006 got approved but people as far back in 2003 were waiting. Most of the approvals came from TSC, basically they approved cases where things like name check etc were cleared, in those days things were neither automated or organized the way they are today. Now despite this desperate reaction enough EB2 I/C cases could not be found and 6K of spillover still went to EB3 ROW. This is one of the reasons why they should play it safe with a larger buffer so that law is followed in the true spirit. Basically in 2009 things became streamlined and EB2 I/C finally reached into early 2005 most of it was in the Sep 2009 VB i.e. 1 Year of movement that is when the clinical approvals of being current and being approved in the same month started. Then next year we reached May 2006 and then next year to APR 15 2007 and finally a new chapter of intake is being written. Iam sure if those 6K numbers were given to EB2 I/C back in 2008 this intake would have happened a little earlier itself as the numbers would have reached a very close point at the end of FY 2011. Another example of injustice though smaller in terms of numbers but probably worse is that EB3 I/C did not get their regular quota for a few years you can imagine how bad it would be to get 500 out of 2800 visas less in a year. The Chinese folks filed a lawsuit to have this corrected, probably it is due to their efforts that things are better now and allocations are finally being done correctly. The Eb3 incident happened because EB3 M & P gobbled up far more numbers that they were supposed to get and Eb3 had to be set to U because the annual cap was consumed.

[nishant2200]

Not opening the actual data into excel, I can point out few things which I feel:

1. EB2:EB3 ratio should be more like 75:25. I have not met single person to date who is in EB3 post july 2007.
2. Dependent factor of 2.25. I think one in four couples would have a non USA born child, and lead to 9 GC applications for 4 primaries. I think you have not multiplied at all by this.

Now suppose your 56k is correct figure, and you go by the axiom that number of PERMs = demand, then 56k demand till 2010 end. Right now 2011 is also going to add, so if 2011 is same as 2010, add 28k for it also, 56 + 28 = 84k demand, so we need 84k visas to make current. Further, it's been say 4.5 years since July 2007. 84k / 4.5 = almost 19k a year. Last two years around 30k SOFAD, so with this assumption of best case 30k SOFAD, the 84k would be gobbled up in say 3 years, but in these 3 years, further 3 * 19 = 57 k would be added, hence not making current.


Also in 2008,2009 and 2010 the demand seems to be really low.

Looked up this data from http://flcdatacenter.com/CasePerm.aspx

Country PDyear casestatus PermCount
CHINA 2008 CERTIFIED 1210
CHINA 2008 CERTIFIED-EXPIRED 2118
CHINA 2008 DENIED 353
CHINA 2008 WITHDRAWN 106
CHINA 2009 Certified 1090
CHINA 2009 Certified-Expired 1022
CHINA 2009 Denied 199
CHINA 2009 Withdrawn 205
CHINA 2010 Certified 1778
CHINA 2010 Certified-Expired 2274
CHINA 2010 Denied 338
CHINA 2010 Withdrawn 168
INDIA 2008 CERTIFIED 7198
INDIA 2008 CERTIFIED-EXPIRED 9371
INDIA 2008 DENIED 1676
INDIA 2008 WITHDRAWN 593
INDIA 2009 Certified 6403
INDIA 2009 Certified-Expired 4984
INDIA 2009 Denied 971
INDIA 2009 Withdrawn 1174
INDIA 2010 Certified 14872
INDIA 2010 Certified-Expired 14058
INDIA 2010 Denied 1981
INDIA 2010 Withdrawn 1085

So all together there are 15K Perms approved in for PD in 2008. 13.5K in 2009 and 28K in 2010 for IC. Total of 56K. With 60% Eb2:EB3 ratio = 34K.

So technically with one 30K Spillover, we should be becoming current in a year or so. Whats wrong with this picture?

Assuming:
1. No Demand destruction.
2. All 2007 cases are allocated visas by end of FY 2012.
3. Eb2:EB3 ratio of 60:40, like others were using.

Side note: Adding a snapshot of rest of world: Certified-Widthdrawn and Certified respectively.
2008: 16626;12684
2009: 7455;8584
2010: 21248;16007

Altogether: 82604(Eb2:50K;EB3:32K). This kind of EB2 inflow shouldn't be able to fill up 140K visas....

What am i Missing?

[imdeng]

A poster on Teddy's other forum (username: FedUpWithGC) indicated that his PD is July-2008 for CP and he has NOT received fee notice. So we can put to rest the rumors of fee notices beyond June-2008. He was specifically reacting to someone suggesting that fee notices have gone for PDs until Sept-2008.

Seems like the current PD movement is part of a deliberate plan and CO will cover ground at least till the fee notices. So in next couple bulletins we should reach the end of June-2008.

[vizcard]

A poster on Teddy's other forum (username: FedUpWithGC) indicated that his PD is July-2008 for CP and he has NOT received fee notice. So we can put to rest the rumors of fee notices beyond June-2008. He was specifically reacting to someone suggesting that fee notices have gone for PDs until Sept-2008.

Seems like the current PD movement is part of a deliberate plan and CO will cover ground at least till the fee notices. So in next couple bulletins we should reach the end of June-2008.


I don't think we can discount the fact that someone with a Sept PD claimed to get a receipt. I don't know if it's factual or not or maybe the July chap didn't get his due to wrong address or some other issue on their side.

That being said I do agree that it will go through July 1 and then stop or retrogress.

[suninphx]

Not opening the actual data into excel, I can point out few things which I feel:

1. EB2:EB3 ratio should be more like 75:25. I have not met single person to date who is in EB3 post july 2007.
2. Dependent factor of 2.25. I think one in four couples would have a non USA born child, and lead to 9 GC applications for 4 primaries. I think you have not multiplied at all by this.

Now suppose your 56k is correct figure, and you go by the axiom that number of PERMs = demand, then 56k demand till 2010 end. Right now 2011 is also going to add, so if 2011 is same as 2010, add 28k for it also, 56 + 28 = 84k demand, so we need 84k visas to make current. Further, it's been say 4.5 years since July 2007. 84k / 4.5 = almost 19k a year. Last two years around 30k SOFAD, so with this assumption of best case 30k SOFAD, the 84k would be gobbled up in say 3 years, but in these 3 years, further 3 * 19 = 57 k would be added, hence not making current.

Main issue is OP has gone with a ratio of '1' based on what he would have read on this forum recently. As GhostWriter suggested OP has to calculate number of PERMs based on the receipt number and then ratio '1' can be used. ( and that will cover many factors such as EB2:EB3 ratio, demand destruction etc)

PS: As for ratio of 2.25 ...not sure from where assumption of out of 4 families 1 will have non USA born kid came from. May be it was true for previous years but not anymore IMHO. I do not come across many people with India born kids now a days. :)

[TeddyKoochu]

Main issue is OP has gone with a ratio of '1' based on what he would have read on this forum recently. As GhostWriter suggested OP has to calculate number of PERMs based on the receipt number and then ratio '1' can be used. ( and that will cover many factors such as EB2:EB3 ratio, demand destruction etc)

PS: As for ratio of 2.25 ...not sure from where assumption of out of 4 families 1 will have non USA born kid came from. May be it was true for previous years but not anymore IMHO. I do not come across many people with India born kids now a days. :)

IMHO 2.05 is quite an optimistic ratio. Refer to the following thread on Trackitt, refer to the post by Aniraj. As Nishant points out its highly likely that 1 in 8 families will have atleast 1 non US born kid. In EB1 especially EB1C the likelihood is even more.

http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussion-forums/i485-eb/855839481/11-16-2011-i-485-approvals

Posted by aniraj200 (9) 11 hours 25 minutes ago
EB2 India PD 6/26/2007 Got approval email today for myself & all the three dependents.
Have updated my profile
Good luck to all

[grnwtg]

Now a days ratio of eb2:eb3 is more than 75% ( i too did not see who is eb3 from past couple of years except people who did 3 yrs graduation). And regarding ratio 2.25, i dont think it stands any more, from past 1-2 year we are not seeing any married people coming to usa and applying green card, i definetly believe 2.05 is good for calculations.
One more issue to consider: i believe in 2007/2008 there was new rule for Masters students getting 29 months of OPT, which ever the year that rule was invoked, students did not think about starting h1b until one more year, so i believe there will be increase in people with eb2 category after 2010/2011 but their ratio will be less than 2( as 99% of them does not have kids and they marry their classmates)



Main issue is OP has gone with a ratio of '1' based on what he would have read on this forum recently. As GhostWriter suggested OP has to calculate number of PERMs based on the receipt number and then ratio '1' can be used. ( and that will cover many factors such as EB2:EB3 ratio, demand destruction etc)

PS: As for ratio of 2.25 ...not sure from where assumption of out of 4 families 1 will have non USA born kid came from. May be it was true for previous years but not anymore IMHO. I do not come across many people with India born kids now a days. :)

[imdeng]

While the assumption of 1 in 8 family having a non-US-born kid is quite reasonable for EB2, I think there are several factors that cut into the dependency ratio going forward:
1. Indians who come on F1 and transition to H1B and then EB2 will not have any non-US-born kids.
2. Indian professionals are marrying late and having kids late (30s rather than 20s) - and at the same time they are aware of the benefits to the kid if he/she is born in the US. I know of couples who delayed having kids until they were in US.

I don't doubt that 2.25 is probably correct at the moment - however, I think it is in a downward trend with time. BTW - mine is a DINK (Double Income No Kids) household with parallel EB2 filings - so I am doing my best to keep the ratio down :-)



IMHO 2.05 is quite an optimistic ratio. Refer to the following thread on Trackitt, refer to the post by Aniraj. As Nishant points out its highly likely that 1 in 8 families will have atleast 1 non US born kid. In EB1 especially EB1C the likelihood is even more.

http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussion-forums/i485-eb/855839481/11-16-2011-i-485-approvals

Posted by aniraj200 (9) 11 hours 25 minutes ago
EB2 India PD 6/26/2007 Got approval email today for myself & all the three dependents.
Have updated my profile
Good luck to all

[suninphx]

IMHO 2.05 is quite an optimistic ratio. Refer to the following thread on Trackitt, refer to the post by Aniraj. As Nishant points out its highly likely that 1 in 8 families will have atleast 1 non US born kid. In EB1 especially EB1C the likelihood is even more.

http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussion-forums/i485-eb/855839481/11-16-2011-i-485-approvals

Posted by aniraj200 (9) 11 hours 25 minutes ago
EB2 India PD 6/26/2007 Got approval email today for myself & all the three dependents.
Have updated my profile
Good luck to all

Teddy- I think lets not take 'selective' examples to prove point. If you look at the sheet Kanmani is maintaning you may get a different impression. And another thing is when we are considering a ratio of '1' and are going by density of 2500/month I think we have all these factors avaraged out and covered. So lets go by that.

PS: 2.05 may not be actual rate for India but 2.25 is too high IMHO. Your own assumption of out of 8 families one having non USA born kid brings ratio to 2.125.

[imdeng]

Looking at Kanmani's PERM database there are 16 people who mentioned how many 485s their application will result in and out of those 16, 14 have 2 (self and spouse), 2 have 3 (self, spouse, kid). Small sample size caveats apply - but we are exactly at 1 non-US-born kid per 8 families.

There are several with multiple PERMs or parallel PERMs - but that is not our focus right now. Also - no single people?

Link: http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?248-Help-us-Counting-Multiple-Perms

Teddy- I think lets not take 'selective' examples to prove point. If you look at the sheet Kanmani is maintaning you may get a different impression. And another thing is when we are considering a ratio of '1' and are going by density of 2500/month I think we have all these factors avaraged out and covered. So lets go by that.

PS: 2.05 may not be actual rate for India but 2.25 is too high IMHO. Your own assumption of out of 8 families one having non USA born kid brings ratio to 2.125.

[Pedro Gonzales]

Also - no single people?


I'm not surprised. We're mostly EB2I with some EB2C. With a 4 - 5 year wait + 2 years of workex pre PERM + 2 years of MS we're at least 29 years old when we get our I485. From anecdotal evidence, I believe a lot of us are far older than that. How many desi parents will let their kids stay unmarried at the ungodly age of 30.
"Lata aunty ki beti se mil to lo!"

[suninphx]

I'm not surprised. We're mostly EB2I with some EB2C. With a 4 - 5 year wait + 2 years of workex pre PERM + 2 years of MS we're at least 29 years old when we get our I485. From anecdotal evidence, I believe a lot of us are far older than that. How many desi parents will let their kids stay unmarried at the ungodly age of 30.
"Lata aunty ki beti se mil to lo!"

"Lata aunty ki beti se mil to lo!" - LOL

[kd2008]

www.uscis.gov/files/nativedocuments/Transform_539_wmv_540.wmv

I guess USCIS transformation will roll out in next 6 months or so for basic non-immigrant categories.

[imdeng]

Spec used to have a monthly breakup of PERM data in text form in his thread in FACTS & DATA section. It is now replaced by an annual summary data in image form - I guess because of plagiarism issues. Do we still have that monthly PERM data somewhere?

[suninphx]

Spec used to have a monthly breakup of PERM data in text form in his thread in FACTS & DATA section. It is now replaced by an annual summary data in image form - I guess because of plagiarism issues. Do we still have that monthly PERM data somewhere?

Not sure if you are looking for this:

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?85-PERM-Breakdowns-For-PD-(including-Monthly-Breakdown)

[imdeng]

Yes - Thank You.


Not sure if you are looking for this:

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?85-PERM-Breakdowns-For-PD-(including-Monthly-Breakdown)

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy- I think lets not take 'selective' examples to prove point. If you look at the sheet Kanmani is maintaning you may get a different impression. And another thing is when we are considering a ratio of '1' and are going by density of 2500/month I think we have all these factors avaraged out and covered. So lets go by that.

PS: 2.05 may not be actual rate for India but 2.25 is too high IMHO. Your own assumption of out of 8 families one having non USA born kid brings ratio to 2.125.


I'm not surprised. We're mostly EB2I with some EB2C. With a 4 - 5 year wait + 2 years of workex pre PERM + 2 years of MS we're at least 29 years old when we get our I485. From anecdotal evidence, I believe a lot of us are far older than that. How many desi parents will let their kids stay unmarried at the ungodly age of 30.
"Lata aunty ki beti se mil to lo!"



Sun I agree in principle. The example was the most recent one that I read so just quoted it, it just seemed to be a good one but I agree it’s not the norm; it was just to highlight a possibility. People who came from India via the Job route are however more likely to have non-us born kids. You math is right 1/8 means 2.125. Virtually everyone who cane in 2006/2007/2008 had a minimum of 5-6 years of work experience and for someone having a 1 kid especially if they were married early is highly likely. The ratio of MS EB2 to Job Eb2 is probably 50-50. Pedro has said this in a very nice and hilarious way.

The ratio of 1 I agree is the best way to go forward. In the discussion a very good point about CP came up. So hopefully Demand Destruction = CP + NIW + Higher EB2 - EB3. We should be calling it extra demand destruction due to the circumstances, the ratio of 1 has some demand destruction baked in otherwise it’s simply not possible. The most optimistic calculation IMHO would be .66 (EB2 - Eb3) *2.05 (Dependent)*.8 (20% Denial) even this exceeds 1. I believe the 20% accounts for Kanmani’s duplicate perm compilation.

[wantgcnow]

I don't think we can discount the fact that someone with a Sept PD claimed to get a receipt. I don't know if it's factual or not or maybe the July chap didn't get his due to wrong address or some other issue on their side.

That being said I do agree that it will go through July 1 and then stop or retrogress.

Is there anyone in this forum or does anyone know who has received NVC fee receipt notice for Sept 2008 PD???

[nishant2200]

All right guys, thanks for discussion. 2.125 is then what majority agree as worst case factor, and no one opposes the 75% eb2?

If we go by perm equal 485s all this dont matter. I think we are all coming to concensus on this axiom.

[vchirakala]

Hi Guru's

Do you think the dates will move in the next bulletin. My PD is April 18 2008.

regards
Chirakala

[sandeep11]

Have your documents ready. There is a fair chance that atleast the next VB will see some movement. My take 2 months.



Hi Guru's

Do you think the dates will move in the next bulletin. My PD is April 18 2008.

regards
Chirakala

[vizcard]

Hi Guru's

Do you think the dates will move in the next bulletin. My PD is April 18 2008.

regards
Chirakala

It is expected to move to April 15 so you will not be current.

Just kidding... the general consensus is that it will move till July 1, 2008 over the next 2 bulletins. So keep your docs ready and get your vaccinations done.

[wantgcnow]

It is expected to move to April 15 so you will not be current.

Just kidding... the general consensus is that it will move till July 1, 2008 over the next 2 bulletins. So keep your docs ready and get your vaccinations done.

Dude...please mention July 15 2008 and not July 1st :-) mine is July 11

[vizcard]

Dude...please mention July 15 2008 and not July 1st :-) mine is July 11

If it was up to me I would say Aug 22 or Sept 1 :)

Unfortunately (or maybe fortunately), I am not CO.

[longgcque]

I remember a post from user 'la_2002_ch' EB2I and he mentioned a co-worker who had CP option on I140 had got NVC fee notice and there PD were same. I can see la_2002_ch has put in his PD as 9/26/2008 in the other thread of people waiting to file. He commented sometime in august 2011, I need to go back and find his thread.

Mine is 9/25/2008 and so this is a good news(IF TRUE)


Is there anyone in this forum or does anyone know who has received NVC fee receipt notice for Sept 2008 PD???

[longgcque]

OK. la_2002_ch info is in post # 5774 in 2011 Predictions thread.
+++++++
Gurus, one of my colleagues with a similar PD as mine (Sep 2008) just heard from our common attorney that he has received the fee notice for his CP case. (dont know why the HR decided to file my case as AOS and his as CP).

Does this help us in predicting any good/bad news (Hoping good... so that I can file the EAD for my wife).

+++++++


I remember a post from user 'la_2002_ch' EB2I and he mentioned a co-worker who had CP option on I140 had got NVC fee notice and there PD were same. I can see la_2002_ch has put in his PD as 9/26/2008 in the other thread of people waiting to file. He commented sometime in august 2011, I need to go back and find his thread.

Mine is 9/25/2008 and so this is a good news(IF TRUE)

[leo07]

While it is possible that the Dates move upto July 15th 2008. We must be really wary and cautious in our expectations. Because there is only a point upto which CO can legally push the bar -- with in the current framework. While you must gather all the required documents ( mainly Birth Certificates etc) that will require time to find/gather, but also not set yourself up for major disappointment.
My 2 cents.

Dude...please mention July 15 2008 and not July 1st :-) mine is July 11

[imdeng]

This is in response to sportsfan33's post in PD Database thread - its better discussed here.

I was looking for the monthly PERM data earlier today to check the veracity of the claim that demand in 2008 is significantly lower in the second half. As far as PERM filings go - there is only a small dropoff. Jan-Apr'08 is ~10.5K, Sept-Dec'08 is ~8.5K - about 20% drop max. This is in the ballpark of what we are seeing in the PD Database.

2009 numbers in PD Database may be understated right now since people in mid-late 2009 are still sleeping. They will be up and active when they feel that their PD is close to being current. 2008 on the other hand is fully up and about I think.


Although data are seriously limited, some interesting observations can be made already.

37 people are not current yet in 2008 (total = 53) and 23 people are in 2009.

So under the current distribution, we have 53 in 2008 compared with 23 in 2009. 2010 and 2011 are out of question as of now because very few of those people are following anything immigration related yet.

Also under the current distribution, we don't have significant evidence to confirm the popular theory of demand falling off the cliff post July 2008 (21 out of 53...less than 50%, yes, but not *too less*).

It seems to imply that the numbers in 2009 are even less than 50% of those in 2008, which is corroborated by the PERM data and also from kanmani's other thread which seems to indicate more duplicate PERMs in 2009 compared to 2008. However the demand destruction will be more severe in 2008. Interesting to see how it plays out.

[pdmay2008]

** Admin says they had a discussion with some one in Visa Office. Estimation of 28.5k is incorrect, reality is different.

[imdeng]

And as is usual for the said Admin, no details, no specifics - not even an indication of whether the reality is higher or lower than the 28.5K estimate. Just that it is different - its the easiest call to make - different.

** Admin says they had a discussion with some one in Visa Office. Estimation of 28.5k is incorrect, reality is different.

[TeddyKoochu]

Nishant , 70: 30 is ok for me . I have no supporting data.

Kanmani, the supporting data is in the following post by tonyromo.

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?148-EB2-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)-2012&p=13882#post13882

You would notice that this ratio is rising steadily. Following factors will cause the rise.
- If there are more folks from China the ratio will likely rise, China has much higher filing in Eb2 proportionately.
- For people in EB3 before Jul 2007 it makes some sense and they have EAD / AP, for people after Jul 2007 its a must to be in EB2 to get anything.

I agree with Nishant's comment that EB3 cases after Jul 2007 are kind of rare, if at all there are some people they are converting to EB2 or atleast trying.

[pdmay2008]

And as is usual for the said Admin, no details, no specifics - not even an indication of whether the reality is higher or lower than the 28.5K estimate. Just that it is different - its the easiest call to make - different.

I agree. Let's wait and watch what he will come up with.

[psuresh412]

I am new to this forum
can any one explain me what is NVC fee receipt?
My Company changed Lawyer 2 years back, How should i know if i get the NVC receipt notice?

My PD is June 30 2008, Do you think the dates will move to june 30 2008 in the next bulletin?

Thanks,
Suresh

[redsox2009]

** Admin says they had a discussion with some one in Visa Office. Estimation of 28.5k is incorrect, reality is different.

Estimation of what? Pending visas or expecting visas?

Thanks

[asankaran]

Looks like they don't have anything. They want calculations and data to generate traffic. Useless!!

[pdmay2008]

Looks like they don't have anything. They want calculations and data to generate traffic. Useless!!

I got the same sense from the next post he posted in that site.

[vizcard]

I am new to this forum
can any one explain me what is NVC fee receipt?
My Company changed Lawyer 2 years back, How should i know if i get the NVC receipt notice?

My PD is June 30 2008, Do you think the dates will move to june 30 2008 in the next bulletin?

Thanks,
Suresh

You will only get a NVC receipt if you are Consular Processing. AOS folks don't get NVC receipts. June 30 should be current over the next two months... max April... .that's the general consensus on this forum.

[wantgcnow]

I got the same sense from the next post he posted in that site.

I have seen him doing that many times in the past

[suninphx]

Kanmani, the supporting data is in the following post by tonyromo.

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?148-EB2-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)-2012&p=13882#post13882

You would notice that this ratio is rising steadily. Following factors will cause the rise.
- If there are more folks from China the ratio will likely rise, China has much higher filing in Eb2 proportionately.
- For people in EB3 before Jul 2007 it makes some sense and they have EAD / AP, for people after Jul 2007 its a must to be in EB2 to get anything.

I agree with Nishant's comment that EB3 cases after Jul 2007 are kind of rare, if at all there are some people they are converting to EB2 or atleast trying.

Teddy - let's assume that every one is in EB2 (essentially that's what you keep saying right? :) ). What would be conversion factor in that case? Would it be 1.25 0r like 1.5 or more than that?

[leo07]

I'm curious to know this as well. If I have to guess, it's SOFAD.

On a side note: let's not discuss pros/cons of any other site on this thread. There's a complete thread for that purpose. This has nothing to do with my view of that org :) Just as a courtesy to IMDeng who painfully cleaned up this thread not long ago

Estimation of what? Pending visas or expecting visas?

Thanks

[trackright]

it is an open forum.. if you have to say something make sure you can atleast give it a direction...high or low.... just saying its not what it is in reality will not help people doing all the hardwork of calculating. Anyways lets wait and watch wat he has to say.

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy lets assume that every one EB2 (eseentially thats what you keep saying right? :) ). What would be conversion factor in that case? Would it be 1.25 0r like 1.5 or more than that?

Sun I don’t mean that quite literally though but here is how it would be. IMHO 75-25 is a very realistic. It is also backed by the data tonyromo posted for Jun 2008. This number will keep going higher but 100% is a bit extreme.
I think there is a general consensus that family factor is 2.125 instead of 2.05.

I like to use .8 as the destruction factor though many believe that it should be lower i.e. more destruction.

So essentially in theory what you are asking is 2.125 * .8 = 1.7. This is almost extreme :)

Iam still saying that based on the factor of 1, 28.5K is the figure they have and in the next bulletin there will be 2-4 months of movement. Probably both of us are in agreement that factor of 1 is realistic and the best way to go forward.

On another note let’s not worry on postings elsewhere the ones here are the best, we keep hearing things and nothing ever comes out. Talking after the fact is also meaningless because everyone knows by then.

[wantgcnow]

Guys ..someone with PD JUly 7 2008 got NVC fee receipt notice today

[Kanmani]

Teddy thank you.

Do you believe the ratio of eb2:eb3 over of the course of years has changed upto 90:10 or 85:15 ?

Trackitt data shows significant eb3 I active profiles and numbers of eb2 vs eb3 has not changed greatly . Wht do u think?

[leo07]

cool. It at least guarantees that dates will move that far come october.

Guys ..someone with PD JUly 7 2008 got NVC fee receipt notice today

[vchirakala]

Guys ..someone with PD JUly 7 2008 got NVC fee receipt notice today

wow ...are u serious ?

[wantgcnow]

wow ...are u serious ?

Yes someone named FedupwithGC in ** posted it just now

[vchirakala]

It indicates in another 6 months he will be current

[vchirakala]

Posted by FedUpwithGC (23) 3 minutes ago
I got my NVC fee receipt today as I opted for CP in my I140. So hoping that the PD will get close to July 2008 in next few bulletins.

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy thank you.

Do you believe the ratio of eb2:eb3 over of the course of years has changed upto 90:10 or 85:15 ?

Trackitt data shows significant eb3 I active profiles and numbers of eb2 vs eb3 has not changed greatly . Wht do u think?

Kanmani I think even in the worst case scenario it will be 80-20 anything beyond that is extreme.

Now assuming that overall factor is 1 let us try to figure out what demand destruction is baked in.

1 / 2.125 * .75 = .62. So basically 38% demand destruction is already baked in this calculation. CP is always extra I believe this demand destruction percentage is fairly balanced you do not expect it to be more than 38%, conservative demand destruction would be 20%.

[imdeng]

I agree - lets stay with multiple of 1 and the corresponding implied demand destruction. 38% is surely way too much already - can't be any higher.


1 / 2.125 * .75 = .62. So basically 38% demand destruction is already baked in this calculation. CP is always extra I believe this demand destruction percentage is fairly balanced you do not expect it to be more than 38%, conservative demand destruction would be 20%.

[imdeng]

What is interesting is not that we have confirmed report of a NVC Fee Receipt for July-2008 - what is interesting is that it happened today. This shows that DoS is moving towards expanding the horizon of cases they consider in this FY beyond June-2008, which was the last confirmed fee receipt date. If they had an indication that they will get enough demand until June-2008 then they would have held off extending the horizon until the FY was through.

Our realistic end point for the current move forward should at least be extended until Aug 1 2008 from the previous accepted stop point of July 1 2008.

[nishant2200]

Posted by FedUpwithGC (23) 3 minutes ago
I got my NVC fee receipt today as I opted for CP in my I140. So hoping that the PD will get close to July 2008 in next few bulletins.

This may not mean dates will move here right now itself, isn't it said that NVC fee bills sent 6-9 months in advance of anticipated date being current. Of course anything is possible.

[leo07]

Yes. Last year when people were talking about November 2007 folks receiving NVC notice, I did not think it was true :) Usually this fee is good for 12 months, so they don't usually send false notices, unless they think/estimate dates would move that far in next 12 months.

wow ...are u serious ?

[leo07]

I agree.
I personally think that they are very sure that an immigration bill will pass before then or have a better handle on the numbers now.

What is interesting is not that we have confirmed report of a NVC Fee Receipt for July-2008 - what is interesting is that it happened today. This shows that DoS is moving towards expanding the horizon of cases they consider in this FY beyond June-2008, which was the last confirmed fee receipt date. If they had an indication that they will get enough demand until June-2008 then they would have held off extending the horizon until the FY was through.

Our realistic end point for the current move forward should at least be extended until Aug 1 2008 from the previous accepted stop point of July 1 2008.

[venkat]

http://www.immigration-information.com/forums/consular-processing-14/fee-bills-15770/

[imdeng]

Thanks Venkat. We now have independent confirmation of July-2008 Fee Receipt. It is a positive sign. We are past the middle of Nov - perhaps they have a sense of how many applications they received since the start of Nov and are underwhelmed by the number - wishful thinking??

http://www.immigration-information.com/forums/consular-processing-14/fee-bills-15770/

[leo07]

Thanks for information!

http://www.immigration-information.com/forums/consular-processing-14/fee-bills-15770/

[fedupwithgc]

My PD is July 7th 2008 and I received my NVC fee receipt today.

[imdeng]

Thanks for letting us know. We have been following your posts elsewhere. Ron also confirmed the same today. Hope you get current soon.

My PD is July 7th 2008 and I received my NVC fee receipt today.

[Feb262009]

regarding NVC Fee
Hi Gurus,
Does this mean we shall expect the dates to move to say Aug 1 , 2008 in this FY 2012 (or) in FY 2013?

Also does this mean the number of applications they received so far is less than they expected?

[imdeng]

My personal opinion is that the NVC news is positive and we should extend our expectations for this FY from 1-July-08 to 1-Aug-08. It would make sense if it is because USCIS received less than expected number of applications in first half of Nov - but I doubt there is that efficient communication going on between DoS and USCIS.

Does this mean we shall expect the dates to move to say Aug 1 , 2008 in this FY 2012 (or) in FY 2013?
Also does this mean the number of applications they received so far is less than they expected?

[leo07]

IMHO, it's too early to call. I don't know if we have data to even explain the movement until July 1st 2008? It makes logical sense though :)

regarding NVC Fee
Hi Gurus,
Does this mean we shall expect the dates to move to say Aug 1 , 2008 in this FY 2012 (or) in FY 2013?

Also does this mean the number of applications they received so far is less than they expected?

[dce.deepak]

Guys,

My priority date is may08 and I haven't received any receipt

Can you please explain what is NVC receipt and who gets it (lawyer, company or applicant) and when.
What if a receipt is lost?

[dontcareaboutGC]

You or your lawyer will get the receipt if you have filed for Consular processing (CP) if you have filed for AOS you will not get it which I think is your case


Guys,

My priority date is may08 and I haven't received any receipt

Can you please explain what is NVC receipt and who gets it (lawyer, company or applicant) and when.
What if a receipt is lost?

[vizcard]

What is interesting is not that we have confirmed report of a NVC Fee Receipt for July-2008 - what is interesting is that it happened today. This shows that DoS is moving towards expanding the horizon of cases they consider in this FY beyond June-2008, which was the last confirmed fee receipt date. If they had an indication that they will get enough demand until June-2008 then they would have held off extending the horizon until the FY was through.

Our realistic end point for the current move forward should at least be extended until Aug 1 2008 from the previous accepted stop point of July 1 2008.

Not to be anal but a July 7 NVC means that dates would move to July 8 or 15 and not necessarily all the way to Aug 1.

PS: just read Ron's thread and he does mention that 2 ppl had July 30 PDs. So it is very very likely that dates will move to Aug 1 by FY-end.

[kingjeremy]

Dear Q / Nishant / Other Gurus - I have been following your forum for a long time, not a contributor because my skills / knowledge is still not at the level of some of you guys. Please do not ignore this post. I am in a mess right now and any advice / guidance will be helpful.
I had a valid US H1-B visa stamped in my passport through Feb 2012 and I came to India for an extention for my new 797 which is valid through Nov 2014. However, the Chennai consulate accidentally seems to have given me a new stamp based on the old 797. As a result, I have two valid visas through Feb 2012. I have emailed VFS this morning with the documents, etc but have not received a reply. I had a flight to go to Bahrain to see my inlaws which I will have to cancel. Technically, I can reenter the US based on my visa stamps (since its valid through Feb 2012), but the problem is that I have misplaced my original 797. I have sent an email to Fragomen (my company's immigration lawyers) but likely won't get a response from them for another day. Do you know what I should be doing in this situation? My return flight to New York is on Nov 27 (Sunday) and unfortunately the Consulates here are closed for thanksgiving. My best bet will be for Chennai consulate to correct this matter and issue me a new stamp. BUt if they are not able to do it timely, I will have to fly back on my old stamp, but in that case, will I be granted entry into the US based on a copy of my old 797 (since my original is lost?).
Any help / advise will be much appreciated.

Kind regards,
Adi

[kingjeremy]

Dear Q / Nishant / Other Gurus - I have been following your forum for a long time, not a contributor because my skills / knowledge is still not at the level of some of you guys. Please do not ignore this post. I am in a mess right now and any advice / guidance will be helpful.
I had a valid US H1-B visa stamped in my passport through Feb 2012 and I came to India for an extention for my new 797 which is valid through Nov 2014. However, the Chennai consulate accidentally seems to have given me a new stamp based on the old 797. As a result, I have two valid visas through Feb 2012. I have emailed VFS this morning with the documents, etc but have not received a reply. I had a flight to go to Bahrain to see my inlaws which I will have to cancel. Technically, I can reenter the US based on my visa stamps (since its valid through Feb 2012), but the problem is that I have misplaced my original 797. I have sent an email to Fragomen (my company's immigration lawyers) but likely won't get a response from them for another day. Do you know what I should be doing in this situation? My return flight to New York is on Nov 27 (Sunday) and unfortunately the Consulates here are closed for thanksgiving. My best bet will be for Chennai consulate to correct this matter and issue me a new stamp. BUt if they are not able to do it timely, I will have to fly back on my old stamp, but in that case, will I be granted entry into the US based on a copy of my old 797 (since my original is lost?).
Any help / advise will be much appreciated.

Kind regards,
Adi

[immi2910]

Do you have the new I-797? If so, you can use that at point of entry (POE) and get I-94 valid until Nov '14. Granted if you ever leave the country after Feb '12 you will have to get stamping done again.


Dear Q / Nishant / Other Gurus - I have been following your forum for a long time, not a contributor because my skills / knowledge is still not at the level of some of you guys. Please do not ignore this post. I am in a mess right now and any advice / guidance will be helpful.
I had a valid US H1-B visa stamped in my passport through Feb 2012 and I came to India for an extention for my new 797 which is valid through Nov 2014. However, the Chennai consulate accidentally seems to have given me a new stamp based on the old 797. As a result, I have two valid visas through Feb 2012. I have emailed VFS this morning with the documents, etc but have not received a reply. I had a flight to go to Bahrain to see my inlaws which I will have to cancel. Technically, I can reenter the US based on my visa stamps (since its valid through Feb 2012), but the problem is that I have misplaced my original 797. I have sent an email to Fragomen (my company's immigration lawyers) but likely won't get a response from them for another day. Do you know what I should be doing in this situation? My return flight to New York is on Nov 27 (Sunday) and unfortunately the Consulates here are closed for thanksgiving. My best bet will be for Chennai consulate to correct this matter and issue me a new stamp. BUt if they are not able to do it timely, I will have to fly back on my old stamp, but in that case, will I be granted entry into the US based on a copy of my old 797 (since my original is lost?).
Any help / advise will be much appreciated.

Kind regards,
Adi

[immi2910]

Do you have the new I-797? If so, you can use that at point of entry (POE) and get I-94 valid until Nov '14. Granted if you ever leave the country after Feb '12 you will have to get stamping done again.


Dear Q / Nishant / Other Gurus - I have been following your forum for a long time, not a contributor because my skills / knowledge is still not at the level of some of you guys. Please do not ignore this post. I am in a mess right now and any advice / guidance will be helpful.
I had a valid US H1-B visa stamped in my passport through Feb 2012 and I came to India for an extention for my new 797 which is valid through Nov 2014. However, the Chennai consulate accidentally seems to have given me a new stamp based on the old 797. As a result, I have two valid visas through Feb 2012. I have emailed VFS this morning with the documents, etc but have not received a reply. I had a flight to go to Bahrain to see my inlaws which I will have to cancel. Technically, I can reenter the US based on my visa stamps (since its valid through Feb 2012), but the problem is that I have misplaced my original 797. I have sent an email to Fragomen (my company's immigration lawyers) but likely won't get a response from them for another day. Do you know what I should be doing in this situation? My return flight to New York is on Nov 27 (Sunday) and unfortunately the Consulates here are closed for thanksgiving. My best bet will be for Chennai consulate to correct this matter and issue me a new stamp. BUt if they are not able to do it timely, I will have to fly back on my old stamp, but in that case, will I be granted entry into the US based on a copy of my old 797 (since my original is lost?).
Any help / advise will be much appreciated.

Kind regards,
Adi

[kingjeremy]

Thanks for the reply, yes, I do have my new i-797 with me, but the validity of that new i-797 is Feb 2012 through Nov 2014. Would they accept it as a POE document if I enter Nov 2011? Also will be a mismatch to my Petition number per the visa stamp.

This really sucks as VFS is so unwilling to provide any information. And now I have no choice but cancel my Bahrain trip as I want to be available here if asked to go to Chennai, etc.

[imdeng]

Jeremy - what you really need is a new visa with the new 797. Based on my recent experience with VFS, I have found them to be cooperative but just a little slow - and they respond much better to a call than an email. So call them up and ask for a visa appointment to get a new H1B stamp based on your new 797. I think the wait times are small right now - so you should be done in a matter of few days.

You can enter with a valid visa and the accompanied 797 even if the 797 does not start for a some time. Fragomen will be able to tell you more about how early you can enter - but 2-3 months sounds fine to me. I hope this gets sorted alright.


Thanks for the reply, yes, I do have my new i-797 with me, but the validity of that new i-797 is Feb 2012 through Nov 2014. Would they accept it as a POE document if I enter Nov 2011? Also will be a mismatch to my Petition number per the visa stamp.

This really sucks as VFS is so unwilling to provide any information. And now I have no choice but cancel my Bahrain trip as I want to be available here if asked to go to Chennai, etc.

[TeddyKoochu]

Dear Q / Nishant / Other Gurus - I have been following your forum for a long time, not a contributor because my skills / knowledge is still not at the level of some of you guys. Please do not ignore this post. I am in a mess right now and any advice / guidance will be helpful.
I had a valid US H1-B visa stamped in my passport through Feb 2012 and I came to India for an extention for my new 797 which is valid through Nov 2014. However, the Chennai consulate accidentally seems to have given me a new stamp based on the old 797. As a result, I have two valid visas through Feb 2012. I have emailed VFS this morning with the documents, etc but have not received a reply. I had a flight to go to Bahrain to see my inlaws which I will have to cancel. Technically, I can reenter the US based on my visa stamps (since its valid through Feb 2012), but the problem is that I have misplaced my original 797. I have sent an email to Fragomen (my company's immigration lawyers) but likely won't get a response from them for another day. Do you know what I should be doing in this situation? My return flight to New York is on Nov 27 (Sunday) and unfortunately the Consulates here are closed for thanksgiving. My best bet will be for Chennai consulate to correct this matter and issue me a new stamp. BUt if they are not able to do it timely, I will have to fly back on my old stamp, but in that case, will I be granted entry into the US based on a copy of my old 797 (since my original is lost?).
Any help / advise will be much appreciated.

Kind regards,
Adi

AFAIK as others have said you will have no issues in entering on your current valid visa so don't worry. The visa will have the receipt number of your old I797 ahead of the field P#. Having the I797 is a requirement when the visa is not stamped but in your case the visa is stamped for this duration already, so nothing to worry. Try to see if VFS can help you top sort the stamping issue it looks like a mistake, its a close call considering the holidays. You law firm- Fragomen should also be having a scan copy of the I797 so if they can email it to you it should be fine. Sometimes at the POE the officer might give you a I94 based on your latest I797 else nothing to worry, I94 extension can be done in US, did you get a new I94 with the extension you must have surrendered that while leaving. Do try and talk to your law firm on the specifics because you should do what they say finally, AFAIK you should have no issues.

[srimurthy]

Jeremy, also note a couple of things the week of 21st Nov is having holidays lined because of Thanksgiving, so Consulate will be having holidays.
Also VFS is more like a dedicated courier service than Counsulate service, so they may not be able to answer anything on whats the status other than that the docs are either with officer for correction or if they received it back.
If you have already submitted the passport for correct, I guess you need to wait for travel till you get all the papers back as you need the passport for entering back in US.

We pray it gets sorted and you get your papers with correct info.


AFAIK as others have said you will have no issues in entering on your current valid visa so don't worry. The visa will have the receipt number of your old I797 ahead of the field P#. Having the I797 is a requirement when the visa is not stamped but in your case the visa is stamped for this duration already, so nothing to worry. Try to see if VFS can help you top sort the stamping issue it looks like a mistake, its a close call considering the holidays. You law firm- Fragomen should also be having a scan copy of the I797 so if they can email it to you it should be fine. Sometimes at the POE the officer might give you a I94 based on your latest I797 else nothing to worry, I94 extension can be done in US, did you get a new I94 with the extension you must have surrendered that while leaving. Do try and talk to your law firm on the specifics because you should do what they say finally, AFAIK you should have no issues.

[SaturnRing]

Lots of confusion

Hi everybody, me and my spouse have a little situation in hand. My PD is Mar 26th 2008. My Spouse might lose his job in 2 weeks (we still don;t know if it will surely happen or not). If he does lose his job, then we would need to switch him to H4. If my PD becomes current in Jan, then is it mandatory for him to get his H4 approved or will the status change receipt enough to apply for 485.

We are just going through our options now.

[mesan123]

Hi King JERMY,

I was having same 2 I-797 when i applied for visa in CHennai consulate.. I have a question for . DId you give both the I-797 when you were interviewed to the visa officer & also the person who checks your documents online.

The reason i am asking is this. When i went for my visa appointment, they intially verified the first I-797 (which was valid till Jan 2012). then i gave them the new I-797 ( valid till Jan 2015). SHe made sure both are from same company and then she verified my new I-797 also in PIMS Then she wrote on my application that i ahve DUAL I-797 and the validity date.

When i met the visa officer she saw that in my application and asked me for both I-797 . and when i got my passport i have visa stamped till 2015.


To answer second part of your question. IF you loat your original I-797 . you can get curtosy copy from your lawyer. he would have it( ususally USCIS sends 2 copies these days.one courtesy copy and one original one). you can use it for getting I-94 till 2014 if you are going to come with your 2012 visa

hoping hve answered your doubts. if you have any more let me know

Please help - Lost 797 and stuck in India
Dear Q / Nishant / Other Gurus - I have been following your forum for a long time, not a contributor because my skills / knowledge is still not at the level of some of you guys. Please do not ignore this post. I am in a mess right now and any advice / guidance will be helpful.
I had a valid US H1-B visa stamped in my passport through Feb 2012 and I came to India for an extention for my new 797 which is valid through Nov 2014. However, the Chennai consulate accidentally seems to have given me a new stamp based on the old 797. As a result, I have two valid visas through Feb 2012. I have emailed VFS this morning with the documents, etc but have not received a reply. I had a flight to go to Bahrain to see my inlaws which I will have to cancel. Technically, I can reenter the US based on my visa stamps (since its valid through Feb 2012), but the problem is that I have misplaced my original 797. I have sent an email to Fragomen (my company's immigration lawyers) but likely won't get a response from them for another day. Do you know what I should be doing in this situation? My return flight to New York is on Nov 27 (Sunday) and unfortunately the Consulates here are closed for thanksgiving. My best bet will be for Chennai consulate to correct this matter and issue me a new stamp. BUt if they are not able to do it timely, I will have to fly back on my old stamp, but in that case, will I be granted entry into the US based on a copy of my old 797 (since my original is lost?).
Any help / advise will be much appreciated.

Kind regards,
Adi
.

[mysati]

Jeremy,

AFAIK, there is no cause to worry in your case. I had a somewhat similar situation a few years back (lost my 797 while outside the country). Based on my experience, you can ask your lawyers to fedex/scan a copy of your 797.

You can try back with the consulate to get your visa corrected. If not possible, you can re-enter with your existing stamping. AFAIK, at the POE, they never check the I-797. But you can show them your new 797 and get that date on your I-94. In that case, you might have to go for stamping again later (before next reentry).

Best solution, as always, is to contact your lawyers and follow their advice.




Dear Q / Nishant / Other Gurus - I have been following your forum for a long time, not a contributor because my skills / knowledge is still not at the level of some of you guys. Please do not ignore this post. I am in a mess right now and any advice / guidance will be helpful.
I had a valid US H1-B visa stamped in my passport through Feb 2012 and I came to India for an extention for my new 797 which is valid through Nov 2014. However, the Chennai consulate accidentally seems to have given me a new stamp based on the old 797. As a result, I have two valid visas through Feb 2012. I have emailed VFS this morning with the documents, etc but have not received a reply. I had a flight to go to Bahrain to see my inlaws which I will have to cancel. Technically, I can reenter the US based on my visa stamps (since its valid through Feb 2012), but the problem is that I have misplaced my original 797. I have sent an email to Fragomen (my company's immigration lawyers) but likely won't get a response from them for another day. Do you know what I should be doing in this situation? My return flight to New York is on Nov 27 (Sunday) and unfortunately the Consulates here are closed for thanksgiving. My best bet will be for Chennai consulate to correct this matter and issue me a new stamp. BUt if they are not able to do it timely, I will have to fly back on my old stamp, but in that case, will I be granted entry into the US based on a copy of my old 797 (since my original is lost?).
Any help / advise will be much appreciated.

Kind regards,
Adi

[leo07]

If you are with the same company. Your new I-797 with old visa stamp are good enough at the POE. I think you are covered. Just incase, if you have a copy of old I-797, carry it with you.( not necessary)

Dear Q / Nishant / Other Gurus - I have been following your forum for a long time, not a contributor because my skills / knowledge is still not at the level of some of you guys. Please do not ignore this post. I am in a mess right now and any advice / guidance will be helpful.
I had a valid US H1-B visa stamped in my passport through Feb 2012 and I came to India for an extention for my new 797 which is valid through Nov 2014. However, the Chennai consulate accidentally seems to have given me a new stamp based on the old 797. As a result, I have two valid visas through Feb 2012. I have emailed VFS this morning with the documents, etc but have not received a reply. I had a flight to go to Bahrain to see my inlaws which I will have to cancel. Technically, I can reenter the US based on my visa stamps (since its valid through Feb 2012), but the problem is that I have misplaced my original 797. I have sent an email to Fragomen (my company's immigration lawyers) but likely won't get a response from them for another day. Do you know what I should be doing in this situation? My return flight to New York is on Nov 27 (Sunday) and unfortunately the Consulates here are closed for thanksgiving. My best bet will be for Chennai consulate to correct this matter and issue me a new stamp. BUt if they are not able to do it timely, I will have to fly back on my old stamp, but in that case, will I be granted entry into the US based on a copy of my old 797 (since my original is lost?).
Any help / advise will be much appreciated.

Kind regards,
Adi

[leo07]

Don't need to panic. Actually, I have traveled in similar situations before. You are good, If you have a valid-visa and a valid 797. It's better if both are from the same employer, but not absolutely necessary.


If you are with the same company. Your new I-797 with old visa stamp are good enough at the POE. I think you are covered. Just incase, if you have a copy of old I-797, carry it with you.( not necessary)

[Feb262009]

Hi SaturnRing,
As long as the H4 is applied before his H1 is revoked, You should be good. The H4 need not be approved.

This is just my opinion. I am not an attorney. Pls consult with your attorney.

[ontheedge]

Lots of confusion

Hi everybody, me and my spouse have a little situation in hand. My PD is Mar 26th 2008. My Spouse might lose his job in 2 weeks (we still don;t know if it will surely happen or not). If he does lose his job, then we would need to switch him to H4. If my PD becomes current in Jan, then is it mandatory for him to get his H4 approved or will the status change receipt enough to apply for 485.

We are just going through our options now.

Saturn, the receipt should be enough. The approved H4 (or H1 if he's back on a job) can be sent later as additional documents after you receive the 485 receipt. If you dont do this, worst case, you'll receive an RFE for the approval.

[leo07]

My 2 cents.
Application Receipt is almost always a sufficient condition with all CIS dealings. Because they very well know approval can take time. Only thing that needs to be proven on 485 is your husbands legal presence in the united states. It is "Absolute" minimal requirement for both of your petitions.

Completely off the charts suggestion -- your username has a solution to your confusion.


Lots of confusion

Hi everybody, me and my spouse have a little situation in hand. My PD is Mar 26th 2008. My Spouse might lose his job in 2 weeks (we still don;t know if it will surely happen or not). If he does lose his job, then we would need to switch him to H4. If my PD becomes current in Jan, then is it mandatory for him to get his H4 approved or will the status change receipt enough to apply for 485.

We are just going through our options now.

[godgivegc]

Hi Gurus,
Please help me with this question. My priority date got current in Dec and will be filing I-485 in Dec 1st week. Meanwhile my wife's H1 is expiring on Dec 31, and H1 extension is on RFE. If the h1 extension is denied, will she be becomes out of status or because we have filed I-485 will she be in status. Please clarify

[SaturnRing]

Thank you all, you put my mind at peace. Also, the situation is not as bad as we thought, so he might still on be valid H1B. Hoping for the best.

[leo07]

To answer a hypothetical question. yes, If H1 extension is denied she will become out of status. At that point she must convert to H4 and use that application/reference on your AOS.

To avoid all these, a. you could delay RFE response as much as permissible. If you fear so much that there is something that will definitely result in denial. File AOS immediately and respond to RFE after.

(OR)

b. In almost all RFE's they are true requests for additional information. So, send your response immediately and wait for H1B approval

I prefer (b), but threw out (a) as an option :)


Hi Gurus,
Please help me with this question. My priority date got current in Dec and will be filing I-485 in Dec 1st week. Meanwhile my wife's H1 is expiring on Dec 31, and H1 extension is on RFE. If the h1 extension is denied, will she be becomes out of status or because we have filed I-485 will she be in status. Please clarify

[godgivegc]

Thanks leo07 for the quick response. So if we file I-485 and after that the extension is denied will she be in status and will not require converting to H4. So essentially the question is if we file for I-485 are we considered to be in status without having to have a h4 or h1. Also can she work after applying for EAD itself or have to wait for EAD approval

[Feb262009]

My thoughts... If H1b is denied, convert to H4 immediatly and stop working until she gets the EAD in hand. Applying for EAD isn't enough to start working.

Thanks leo07 for the quick response. So if we file I-485 and after that the extension is denied will she be in status and will not require converting to H4. So essentially the question is if we file for I-485 are we considered to be in status without having to have a h4 or h1. Also can she work after applying for EAD itself or have to wait for EAD approval

[leo07]

She will be in status, but SHOULD NOT work until she gets EAD in hand. Once she gets EAD, she can use EAD to work.

Thanks leo07 for the quick response. So if we file I-485 and after that the extension is denied will she be in status and will not require converting to H4. So essentially the question is if we file for I-485 are we considered to be in status without having to have a h4 or h1. Also can she work after applying for EAD itself or have to wait for EAD approval

[Waiting4Ever]

What does receiving an NVC receipt mean? At what stage do we get NVC receipt? Could you please clarify?

cool. It at least guarantees that dates will move that far come october.

[leo07]

NVC receipts are for those who opt Consular processing for GC as opposed to AOS. Consular posts usually send out fee receipt notices much in advance.


What does receiving an NVC receipt mean? At what stage do we get NVC receipt? Could you please clarify?

[leo07]

Guys, please ask all non-urgent questions in appropriate forums/threads so that our moderators have less work in cleaning up this thread. I understand that this thread has more visibility and you have a reason to post on this thread. Including this message of mine :)

[Tomtuat]

Dear Q / Nishant / Other Gurus - I have been following your forum for a long time, not a contributor because my skills / knowledge is still not at the level of some of you guys. Please do not ignore this post. I am in a mess right now and any advice / guidance will be helpful.
I had a valid US H1-B visa stamped in my passport through Feb 2012 and I came to India for an extention for my new 797 which is valid through Nov 2014. However, the Chennai consulate accidentally seems to have given me a new stamp based on the old 797. As a result, I have two valid visas through Feb 2012. I have emailed VFS this morning with the documents, etc but have not received a reply. I had a flight to go to Bahrain to see my inlaws which I will have to cancel. Technically, I can reenter the US based on my visa stamps (since its valid through Feb 2012), but the problem is that I have misplaced my original 797. I have sent an email to Fragomen (my company's immigration lawyers) but likely won't get a response from them for another day. Do you know what I should be doing in this situation? My return flight to New York is on Nov 27 (Sunday) and unfortunately the Consulates here are closed for thanksgiving. My best bet will be for Chennai consulate to correct this matter and issue me a new stamp. BUt if they are not able to do it timely, I will have to fly back on my old stamp, but in that case, will I be granted entry into the US based on a copy of my old 797 (since my original is lost?).
Any help / advise will be much appreciated.

Kind regards,
Adi

Hi Adi,

First of all, a US visa is nothing but a permission to enter the US. It's needed only at the POE. Usually, the officers at POE check your latest valid I-797 original/copy before providing the I-94. So as long as you've a valid visa stamped on your passport, you don't need to worry. It doesn't matter even if that visa is for a different company. What matters is which I-797 you provide them at the POE. So in your case, show them the latest valid I-797 (ie, 2014) at POE and they should give you an I-94 valid till 2014. The only issue you may have in the future is that you may need to get another stamping done if you leave US after your current visa (ie, 2012) expires. As long as you stay with in the country you don't need to apply for the extension of status until 2014.

If I were you, I would try to get it corrected before I leave India. You may give it a try. Let us know...

Note: I'm not a lawyer and this is not a legal advice.

[RRRRRR]

No worries. But it's worth trying PP though, I have heard CIS processes some times. You have nothing to lose trying, you'll get your check back if they tend to process in regular.( minus any attorney fees of course :))


Thanks Leo for your reply

[gkjppp]

Good evening all, this is my first post, i am fan of Q's Blog. so registered today. i got few questions.

1.I dont recall i read 2009 (EB3 and Eb2)total perms are 33% of 2008, is that true?
2.2nd half of 2008 market was bad,what was total EB2 count after march 15,2008.
3.my PD is 03/16/2010... applied for 8th year ext last month.client was not willing to provide client letter. EVC model, submitted Office Badge/approved Timesheets/letter from Vendor/PO between my employer and Vendor. fingers crossed, waiting for H1 renew. last year also i got 1 year ext/ based on 140 approval with client letter 11 months / renewalble contract.

Thanks
GKJP3

[leo07]

Hi gkjppp,

Welcome aboard.
(1) I'm not sure if 2009 is 0.33 of 2008, but it's certainly down( significantly). It's probably 0.33 of 2007/6 may be.
Here is a link where you can see(play with) the numbers: http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?50-PERM-Data-and-Calculations

(2) Calculating, just EB2 numbers is tricky. So people tend to take all perm numbers and multiply it with 0.70 to get EB2.

(3) shouldn't you be receiving a 3 year extension of H1B based on your 140 approval? ( dumb me don't know about consulting )

Best!

[gkjppp]

Thanks for the update Leo07

[vizcard]

So another 2 weeks till the madness starts again :). Hopefully dates move to May 15

[leo07]

Not to quiz you, but why would you think(hope?) dates will move to May 15th 2008?

So another 2 weeks till the madness starts again :). Hopefully dates move to May 15

[leo07]

No worries. If you look at the link: http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?50-PERM-Data-and-Calculations
spec provided some excellent analysis and examples to calculate what you need.

Thanks for the update Leo07

[imdeng]

My thoughts on future density:
1. 2008 is as dense as 2007. About 2500 per month. There may be more demand destruction in 2008 - no evidence as yet.
2. No evidence that latter half of 2008 is significantly less dense than first half of 2008 - just about 20% less dense based on PERM data
3. 2009 is about 60% of the density of 2007 and 2008. Around 1500 per month.

These numbers will evolve of course as get more data.



1.I dont recall i read 2009 (EB3 and Eb2)total perms are 33% of 2008, is that true?
2.2nd half of 2008 market was bad,what was total EB2 count after march 15,2008.
3.my PD is 03/16/2010... applied for 8th year ext last month.client was not willing to provide client letter. EVC model, submitted Office Badge/approved Timesheets/letter from Vendor/PO between my employer and Vendor. fingers crossed, waiting for H1 renew. last year also i got 1 year ext/ based on 140 approval with client letter 11 months / renewalble contract.

[Momster]

Hi everyone,

This is my first post - I just joined today. I've been following this blog since about a month and I'm a fan. So much so that I don't visit any of the other websites/blogs. You guys have been doing a fantastic job of bringing clarity to the whole GC process - thank you!

A little bit about me- my husband's PD is early Jan 2009 EB2I. I got interested in the whole GC process after I got a job offer which eventually got rescinded since I had reached my own H1B max out date (well, I have less than a year left which isn't enough time to start my own GC process apparently).

Feel free to delete this post since it isn't related to calculations. I just wanted to introduce myself :)

[vizcard]

Not to quiz you, but why would you think(hope?) dates will move to May 15th 2008?

No logic to the date :) I just want to see forward movement.

[suninphx]

My thoughts on future density:
1. 2008 is as dense as 2007. About 2500 per month. There may be more demand destruction in 2008 - no evidence as yet.
2. No evidence that latter half of 2008 is significantly less dense than first half of 2008 - just about 20% less dense based on PERM data
3. 2009 is about 60% of the density of 2007 and 2008. Around 1500 per month.

These numbers will evolve of course as get more data.

While later half of 2008 is not as thin as popular notion but then 20% less is also sizable reduction I would think.

[GlimmerOfHope]

Hi everyone,

This is my first post - I just joined today. I've been following this blog since about a month and I'm a fan. So much so that I don't visit any of the other websites/blogs. You guys have been doing a fantastic job of bringing clarity to the whole GC process - thank you!

A little bit about me- my husband's PD is early Jan 2009 EB2I. I got interested in the whole GC process after I got a job offer which eventually got rescinded since I had reached my own H1B max out date (well, I have less than a year left which isn't enough time to start my own GC process apparently).

Feel free to delete this post since it isn't related to calculations. I just wanted to introduce myself :)

You can start your GC process now also, however before your 6th yr runs out, you will have to get PERM as well as I140 approved, if both are approved then u can have your H1-extended for 3 yrs. It will be a gamble though. A good immigration attorney should be able to handle your case. GL.

[dce.deepak]

Friends,

My pd is May 08 and I am planning to file a new labor and I140 retaining old pd. Can you please tell me what happens if lets say my new I140 gets approved in 2013 (random year) and current priority date has moved to 2010 by 2013 . Would I still be able to capture my old pd of 08 when I file for 485 in 2013 even though current pd by then has moved well ahead to 2010 with all 2008 cases greened.

[Pedro Gonzales]

Friends,

My pd is May 08 and I am planning to file a new labor and I140 retaining old pd. Can you please tell me what happens if lets say my new I140 gets approved in 2013 (random year) and current priority date has moved to 2010 by 2013 . Would I still be able to capture my old pd of 08 when I file for 485 in 2013 even though current pd by then has moved well ahead to 2010 with all 2008 cases greened.

Yes you can as long as your old PD hasn't been rescinded. You can find out if it has on the USCIs status check page with your receipt number.

[Jonty Rhodes]

I have already posted this message in the related forum "Discussion of bill that remove the Per Country Limits HR 2161, HR 3012, HR 3119". But I just wanted to share it on the prediction-calculation forum since this forum has the maximum traffic. Just wanted to draw attention of those who have not voted yet for HR 3012 and S 1857 or are not aware about them. I will remove the post soon.

Two more co-sponsors for HR 3012.

Rep. Jesse Jackson (D-IL)

Rep. Glenn Thompson (R-PA)

There are total 8 co-sponsors now for this bill.

Also, found this message on ** regarding HR 3012. Looks like they are really utilizing the backdoor channels.

At this time there is just one public action item mentioned on the first post of this thread. Pls make sure you are part of it.
Lot of work is going on that cannot be made public for obvious reasons. We all want the bill to pass ASAP.

Get more friends involved. Spread the word for more participation in the absence of new action items.

[imdeng]

Voting is good - but the best way to help the bill is to write to your senators and house representative. I wrote hand written letters to them and received replies too - vague replies - but still that tells them that there is support among people who will one day have the ability to donate to them and the ability to vote for them. Please write letters in support of HR-3012 and S-1857. Do your bit.

Just wanted to draw attention of those who have not voted yet for HR 3012 and S 1857 or are not aware about them. I will remove the post soon.

[Jonty Rhodes]

Voting is good - but the best way to help the bill is to write to your senators and house representative. I wrote hand written letters to them and received replies too - vague replies - but still that tells them that there is support among people who will one day have the ability to donate to them and the ability to vote for them. Please write letters in support of HR-3012 and S-1857. Do your bit.

I am in agreement with you. In fact, I also wrote and sent the letters and similarly got vague replies. But not everyone can or will write letters and that is the only reason I asked people to vote for it and make their voice heard in whatever little way they can. Sure, writing letters is the best thing and I sincerely wish if more support can pour in for these bills in coming days.

[ashokapex]

Hi Friends,

any one has any idea about EB2 06 June 2008? do you think Jan 2012 bulletin ?

[Jonty Rhodes]

Hi Friends,

any one has any idea about EB2 06 June 2008? do you think Jan 2012 bulletin ?

You should be current in Jan 2012 or Feb 2012 bulletin probably. This is my educated estimate.

[Momster]

Thanks, GlimmerOfHope. I am looking at all my options.

[Jonty Rhodes]

Found these interesting.

http://www.blueseed.co/

http://blogs.ilw.com/gregsiskind/2011/11/entrepreneurs-sailing-away.html

Also, found this news on Oh Law Firm Website.

11/18/2011: DOL Inspector General Reports Foreign Labor Certification Frauds and Need for Enhanced "Integrity" in Foreign Labor Certification Processing

This report which was issued only three days back emphasized tightening of "integrity" in foreign labor certification management. The Office of Foreign Labor Certification has already increased number of audits and supervised recruitment for PERM processing, and this report of its Inspector General is likely to further affect the labor certification adjudication process negatively in the future. Employers, beware!

Looks like, there will be more audits and even bigger backlog for PERM processing.

[kingjeremy]

Hi King JERMY,

I was having same 2 I-797 when i applied for visa in CHennai consulate.. I have a question for . DId you give both the I-797 when you were interviewed to the visa officer & also the person who checks your documents online.

The reason i am asking is this. When i went for my visa appointment, they intially verified the first I-797 (which was valid till Jan 2012). then i gave them the new I-797 ( valid till Jan 2015). SHe made sure both are from same company and then she verified my new I-797 also in PIMS Then she wrote on my application that i ahve DUAL I-797 and the validity date.

When i met the visa officer she saw that in my application and asked me for both I-797 . and when i got my passport i have visa stamped till 2015.


To answer second part of your question. IF you loat your original I-797 . you can get curtosy copy from your lawyer. he would have it( ususally USCIS sends 2 copies these days.one courtesy copy and one original one). you can use it for getting I-94 till 2014 if you are going to come with your 2012 visa

hoping hve answered your doubts. if you have any more let me know

Thank you all for your replies. I did not have access to my computer the last day or so and wasn't able to reply.

Mesan - yes, I gave a copy of my old 797 and my original new 797 to the person who checks the documents (and puts in a folder). She asked me why I was reapplying for my visa as I already had one (am I nuts to do that?). I told her that I am applying for an extension based on my new 797. She nodded her head and gave me back the documents in a packet. I realized that I made a mistake by giving a copy of my old 797 and prior to the interview with the Visa Officer, I removed the copy of my old 797 to avoid any confusion. Interview went smooth - the cute visa officer was friendly and chatty....asked me basic questions but did not ask me for a copy of my old 797.....but looks like the person in charge of printing stickers screwed up and gave me a second visa based on the old 797. Not sure who does what and who must have made this mistake.

[kingjeremy]

Hi Adi,

First of all, a US visa is nothing but a permission to enter the US. It's needed only at the POE. Usually, the officers at POE check your latest valid I-797 original/copy before providing the I-94. So as long as you've a valid visa stamped on your passport, you don't need to worry. It doesn't matter even if that visa is for a different company. What matters is which I-797 you provide them at the POE. So in your case, show them the latest valid I-797 (ie, 2014) at POE and they should give you an I-94 valid till 2014. The only issue you may have in the future is that you may need to get another stamping done if you leave US after your current visa (ie, 2012) expires. As long as you stay with in the country you don't need to apply for the extension of status until 2014.

If I were you, I would try to get it corrected before I leave India. You may give it a try. Let us know...

Note: I'm not a lawyer and this is not a legal advice.

Agreed....I want to get this resolved rather than travelling on my old visa.....won't have to deal with this nonsense till 2014 (hopefully I'll get my green card by then!)

On another note, I am a big fan of this forum....you guys are super cool and super helpful. I appreciate all your responses. I won't clog this forum with any more non-gc posts except for posting the resolution (once and hopefully if resolved) so that others may benefit. VFS is so little helpful in providing info and there's nothing except a generic statement on the embassy website (in case of errors, please visit your vfs center or the consulate).
Cheers, Adi

[vedu]

Veni,

The USCIS dashboard is updated for September, 11. As I was expecting, there is a steep decrease in the pending I-140 numbers! I am very much interested in reading your latest analysis now.


The USCIS dashboard has two months lag. Also, in case of ROW, I-140 and I-485 are allowed to be filed concurrently. So, hopefully, the significant I-140 backlog showing up on the dashboard is already counted in the October, 2011 inventory report (?) Regarding significant increase in PERM filing/approvals, that itself may have caused significant I-140 backlog, which again hopefully is already counted in the October, 2011 inventory report. Thus, the 48% increase in I-485s you calculated makes sense.

[TeddyKoochu]

Veni,

The USCIS dashboard is updated for September, 11. As I was expecting, there is a steep decrease in the pending I-140 numbers! I am very much interested in reading your latest analysis now.

The USCIS dashboard (http://dashboard.uscis.gov/index.cfm?formtype=7&office=91&charttype=1) trend is good in terms of increased efficiency but quite bad for SOFAD. The backlog has come down from 25K to 17K which means a reduction of 8K. Another interesting point to note is that Sep 2012 saw an almost unprecedented number of completions 12K compared to just 5K in Sep 2010, this was a time when the VB did not advance for EB2 I/C in 2011.
All in all if the backlog reduction for I140 happens at this kind of pace we will not see 30K SOFAD this year by any chance. This will now significantly slow down actual EB2 I/C approvals that are Spillover dependent because they may have enough Eb2 I/C cases. An interesting thing could be how much of the impact of this was absorbed in FY 2011 itself because quite literally some of the concurrently filed cases for EB2 I/C cases would have been approved immediately after the I140 would have been approved. Assuming that 50% of the impact will be felt in 2012 SOFAD may come down by atleast 5K assuming the correction in backlog by ~ 12K in the preceding 3 months (I140 normally takes 3 months to hit I485).
By this CO may have enough people by the Mar 15th 2008 date assuming the SOFAD expected is 25K and not 30K. The dates can move forward in the next VB only if the target for SOFAD is 30K, so I would scale down my expectations to maximum of 1.5-2 months in the best case scenario, there may also be a chance that in the next bulletin they may now scale the dates back for actual approvals assuming the intake is sufficient in the worst case scenario.

[rdsingh79]

Teddy and other gurus,
Based on approvals we are seeing in fy 2012, can we say with certainity that this year quarterly spillover is being implemented this year. If so, what is the date we can expect for EB2IC when retrogression take place.

[vedu]

Teddy,

I tend to respectfully disagree with your analysis. There are two reasons for this. First, I believe that many of these cleared I-140s are already absorbed in 2011. Second, if you compare new I-140 receipts for the last few months against the same months in year 2010, you will notice that the numbers have significantly reduced. This will compensate for any increased efficiency of USCIS in clearing ROW I-140s.

All and all, I believe that this year's SOFAD will be at least same as last year's SOFAD, if not more!


The USCIS dashboard (http://dashboard.uscis.gov/index.cfm?formtype=7&office=91&charttype=1) trend is good in terms of increased efficiency but quite bad for SOFAD. The backlog has come down from 25K to 17K which means a reduction of 8K. Another interesting point to note is that Sep 2012 saw an almost unprecedented number of completions 12K compared to just 5K in Sep 2010, this was a time when the VB did not advance for EB2 I/C in 2011.
All in all if the backlog reduction for I140 happens at this kind of pace we will not see 30K SOFAD this year by any chance. This will now significantly slow down actual EB2 I/C approvals that are Spillover dependent because they may have enough Eb2 I/C cases. An interesting thing could be how much of the impact of this was absorbed in FY 2011 itself because quite literally some of the concurrently filed cases for EB2 I/C cases would have been approved immediately after the I140 would have been approved. Assuming that 50% of the impact will be felt in 2012 SOFAD may come down by atleast 5K assuming the correction in backlog by ~ 12K in the preceding 3 months (I140 normally takes 3 months to hit I485).
By this CO may have enough people by the Mar 15th 2008 date assuming the SOFAD expected is 25K and not 30K. The dates can move forward in the next VB only if the target for SOFAD is 30K, so I would scale down my expectations to maximum of 1.5-2 months in the best case scenario, there may also be a chance that in the next bulletin they may now scale the dates back for actual approvals assuming the intake is sufficient in the worst case scenario.

[nishant2200]

Now we are in business.

Ok, So national trend of 140 backlog is now nearing the 15k which we all agreed earlier USCIS might be comfortable with. It is currently at 17.5k.
- Texas Service Center is still the guy doing the cleaning act, while Nebraska is doing great. No wonder in the 485 processing also, for everyone, not just EB2IC, TSC is the one that is slower.
- Now this sharp downward trend is shown for Aug and Sep 2011, wherein the PD date movement of EB2IC was stopped, and the 18k visas left which CO had informed, was completely absorbed by all other categories (EB1, EB2ROW, EB3, EB4, EB5) and EB2IC was stopped. To counter this, I don't think USCIS is really doing concurrent 485 pre-adjudication alongwith 140 for concurrently filed applications. They are supposed to do this ideally, but they don't have manpower or will on it, and hence I am seeing that a approved 140 does not necessarily mean in few days 485 approval. So some effect of this will trickle down starting right now. On trackitt, EB1 especially is whining about their 485s being stopped artificially while EB2IC getting date movement and approvals. BUT now I also see they are beginning to start getting approvals, this is the trickle effect I am talking about.
- I do think that new incoming applications for this year will be lower though as compared to last year and previous years, and that will balance out some of the monster of this backlog.
- As posted on first page by me, SOFAD expected around 25k already. Now, even this 25k can be equivalent to 30k SOFAD in function of good feeling, here's why: Post July 2007 are people who were bare naked, no EAD, hence the concept of demand destruction, and also now that we agree that porting is worst case 2.5 to 3k expected, not the huge 6k. Coupled with above expectation of less incoming applications for immigration benefits.
- Note that the above backlog reduction figures are for last FY, this is not any reaction of USCIS to the new 2012 FY agressive moves by CO, so we should not think that since CO started moving dates aggressively, USCIS is hell bent on stopping that, just based on this, not yet. Positive thing is that inspite of such trend by USCIS, CO has eagerly done QSP and moved dates not as one single BTM in panic mode, but with QSP, given approvals and moved dates in 3-4 month batches patiently.

what do you guys think.


The USCIS dashboard (http://dashboard.uscis.gov/index.cfm?formtype=7&office=91&charttype=1) trend is good in terms of increased efficiency but quite bad for SOFAD. The backlog has come down from 25K to 17K which means a reduction of 8K. Another interesting point to note is that Sep 2012 saw an almost unprecedented number of completions 12K compared to just 5K in Sep 2010, this was a time when the VB did not advance for EB2 I/C in 2011.
All in all if the backlog reduction for I140 happens at this kind of pace we will not see 30K SOFAD this year by any chance. This will now significantly slow down actual EB2 I/C approvals that are Spillover dependent because they may have enough Eb2 I/C cases. An interesting thing could be how much of the impact of this was absorbed in FY 2011 itself because quite literally some of the concurrently filed cases for EB2 I/C cases would have been approved immediately after the I140 would have been approved. Assuming that 50% of the impact will be felt in 2012 SOFAD may come down by atleast 5K assuming the correction in backlog by ~ 12K in the preceding 3 months (I140 normally takes 3 months to hit I485).
By this CO may have enough people by the Mar 15th 2008 date assuming the SOFAD expected is 25K and not 30K. The dates can move forward in the next VB only if the target for SOFAD is 30K, so I would scale down my expectations to maximum of 1.5-2 months in the best case scenario, there may also be a chance that in the next bulletin they may now scale the dates back for actual approvals assuming the intake is sufficient in the worst case scenario.


Teddy,

I tend to respectfully disagree with your analysis. There are two reasons for this. First, I believe that many of these cleared I-140s are already absorbed in 2011. Second, if you compare new I-140 receipts for the last few months against the same months in year 2010, you will notice that the numbers have significantly reduced. This will compensate for any increased efficiency of USCIS in clearing ROW I-140s.

All and all, I believe that this year's SOFAD will be at least same as last year's SOFAD, if not more!

[leo07]

Got it. Thanks!

No logic to the date :) I just want to see forward movement.

[veni001]

Veni,

The USCIS dashboard is updated for September, 11. As I was expecting, there is a steep decrease in the pending I-140 numbers! I am very much interested in reading your latest analysis now.

vedu,

Hopefully we will have Q4 PERM data published later this month to get a better picture for FY 2011.

Based on Dashboard data, below my observations ….

i-140:
USCIS was able to process more 140’s in sept’11 compared to any other month in FY2011. This could partly due to the fact that EB VISA numbers are not available for later-half of Sept’11.

Aug-Sept’11 processing volumes confirm backlog reduction (to some extent) for EB1 & EB2ROWMP at the end of FY.

FY2010 i-140 receipts = 77,280
FY2010 i-140 completions = 73,746
i-140 backlog at the beginning of FY 2011 = 25,563

FY2011 i-140 receipts = 81,678 (6% increase)
FY2011 i-140 completions = 91,418 (24% Increase)
i-140 backlog at the beginning of FY 2012 = 23,185 (9.3% decrease)

FY 2011 received ~4.4k more i-140 compared to FY 2010, same time USCIS processed ~17.7k more i-140 in FY2011 compared to FY2010 resulting in backlog reduction of ~13.3k ( incl EB1-2-3)

If we compare net-i140 pending at the beginning of FY’11 to end of FY’11 it’s reduced by ~2.4K only!

EB5:
FY2010 i-526 receipts = 1,955
FY2010 i-526 completions = 1,534 (21.5% less)
i-526 backlog at the beginning of FY 2011 = 1,125

FY2011 i-526 receipts = 3,805 (~100% increase)
FY2011 i-526 completions = 1,943 (~27% Increase)
i-526 backlog at the beginning of FY 2012 = 3,347 (~200% increase)


What this could mean for FY 2012 start compared to FY 2011?

I-140 backlog more or less same
EB1 backlog = almost doubled
EB2ROWMP backlog = more or less same
EB5 backlog = ??

If we assume similar to last year demand and processing for 140/485, means less SOFAD for FY2012 how much less?

Considering EB1 and EB5 backlog at this point I would say ~10k less compared to FY2011.

[GhostWriter]

Veni, thanks for the analysis. One thing to note is that the "all other pending" category reduced by 6.4K but the "awaiting customer action" increased by 4K during FY'11 (hence a net reduction of only 2.4K as you noted). Is this second category for RFEs ?
Sep-2011 shows the biggest jump in this category over last two years.



FY 2011 received ~4.4k more i-140 compared to FY 2010, same time USCIS processed ~17.7k more i-140 in FY2011 compared to FY2010 resulting in backlog reduction of ~13.3k ( incl EB1-2-3)
If we compare net-i140 pending at the beginning of FY’11 to end of FY’11 it’s reduced by ~2.4K only!

[veni001]

Veni, thanks for the analysis. One thing to note is that the "all other pending" category reduced by 6.4K but the "awaiting customer action" increased by 4K during FY'11 (hence a net reduction of only 2.4K as you noted). Is this second category for RFEs ?
Sep-2011 shows the biggest jump in this category over last two years.

GhostWriter,
That's my understanding, unless someone tell me otherwise.

[GhostWriter]

Thanks Veni.


GhostWriter,
That's my understanding, unless someone tell me otherwise.

[DonDron]

Does this mean we might not see any further movement in the priority date at all? or it will be slower than expected? or no impact at all?

[TeddyKoochu]

@rdsingh79 - Quarterly spillover is definitely happening.
@vedu - I respect your point, in all cases the receipts are still in the same range probably .7 to 1.2. Veni points to an overall 6% increase over the year. In early Sep the numbers were exhausted and there were 7K extra completions in Sep 2011. If 20% of them are Eb2 ROW and EB1 this itself will account for 3K. So probably a 5K reduction in SOFAD maybe reasonable since a lot of it also happened in the 2 preceding months. On another note keeping it around 15K is also not a standard they can bring it down right to 0 if they like that maybe too drastic to think however.
@nishant2200 - Agree with the 25K figure. Now with 8.5K burnt out we have 16.5K left. This may put the final end point of the year somewhere in Jan 2008, its good for CO in a way that then another round of intakes can be justified. I believe the forward movement if at all in the next bulletin will be less than 2 months.
@veni thanks, especially for the I526 and EB5 with aggressive marketing we probably cannot take EB5 SOFAD for granted to remain at the same levels.
@ghostwriter yes they seem to be RFE’s and since the timeline is a month we might see high completions in Oct 2011 as well.
@Dondron – The chances of any forward movement beyond 2 months are significant very less now. In fact next month might see no movement or retrogression if intake has been deemed completed.

[TheTexan]

Oh man that sucks! Sorry for ranting..

[suninphx]

@rdsingh79 - Quarterly spillover is definitely happening.
@vedu - I respect your point, in all cases the receipts are still in the same range probably .7 to 1.2. Veni points to an overall 6% increase over the year. In early Sep the numbers were exhausted and there were 7K extra completions in Sep 2011. If 20% of them are Eb2 ROW and EB1 this itself will account for 3K. So probably a 5K reduction in SOFAD maybe reasonable since a lot of it also happened in the 2 preceding months. On another note keeping it around 15K is also not a standard they can bring it down right to 0 if they like that maybe too drastic to think however.
@nishant2200 - Agree with the 25K figure. Now with 8.5K burnt out we have 16.5K left. This may put the final end point of the year somewhere in Jan 2008, its good for CO in a way that then another round of intakes can be justified. I believe the forward movement if at all in the next bulletin will be less than 2 months.
@veni thanks, especially for the I526 and EB5 with aggressive marketing we probably cannot take EB5 SOFAD for granted to remain at the same levels.
@ghostwriter yes they seem to be RFE’s and since the timeline is a month we might see high completions in Oct 2011 as well.
@Dondron – The chances of any forward movement beyond 2 months are significant very less now. In fact next month might see no movement or retrogression if intake has been deemed completed.
If we are saying there will be 25000 SOFAD this FY and avg. density of 2500/month then visa issuance shd happen for 15 Apr 2007 + 10 months = feb 15 2008. Why are we still stuck in ' somewhere in Jan 2008' for our prediction?

[TeddyKoochu]

If we are saying there will be 25000 SOFAD this FY and avg. density of 2500/month then visa issuance shd happen for 15 Apr 2007 + 10 months = feb 15 2008. Why are we still stuck in ' somewhere in Jan 2008' for our prediction?

It is not perfect even Apr 15 to Jul end is 8.5K even without PWMB. Then its 2500 per month and you know that Jan 2008 is the heaviest. I intended to say end of Jan. Feb 15th maybe slightly ahead in that regard, otherwise you are right 2.5K * 8 makes it Feb 15th :). To make it perfect we have to distribute 16.5k (25-8.) K @ 2.5K per month this gives ~ 6.5K which is 01-Feb-2008. IMHO downgrading SOFAD to 25K from 30K is quite centrist after looking at the I140 trend.

[suninphx]

It is not perfect even Apr 15 to Jul end is 8.5K even without PWMB. Then its 2500 per month and you know that Jan 2008 is the heaviest. I intended to say end of Jan. Feb 15th maybe slightly ahead in that regard, otherwise you are right 2.5K * 8 makes it Feb 15th :).

For me somewhere in ' jan 2008' open a wide range of ' 1-31 Jan' and then there is no way to read your mind to know that you meant Jan end. :) And sure it's not perfect hence we are use term average.

[TeddyKoochu]

For me somewhere in ' jan 2008' open a wide range of ' 1-31 Jan' and then there is no way to read your mind to know that you meant Jan end. :) And sure it's not perfect hence we are use term average.

Agree with you completely, my representation was not clear :), let’s have 01-Feb-2008 as the cutoff date representation with 25K SOFAD. We should see the next VB that will be a litmus test to sense the direction. The dates may advance significantly for intake if and only if HR 3012 is becoming the law.

[suninphx]

Agree with you completely, my representation was not clear :), let’s have 01-Feb-2008 as the cutoff date representation with 25K SOFAD. We should see the next VB that will be a litmus test to sense the direction. The dates may advance significantly for intake if and only if HR 3012 is becoming the law.

Based on numbers 'we know' you may be correct when you say movement will be less than 2 months. But my gut feeling is CO has better idea than us in terms of numbers and hence dates may move till end of Jun 2008 in next two bulletins. My primary driver for this gut feeling is that I have not seen such aggressive move by CO in recent past. And mind you numbers 'we know' were never supporting even the move which happened till date for this FY. So let's see how this goes. It's going to be interesting. I am sure like us CO is also curious to know 'real demand' going into 2008.

[nishant2200]

Ok, I agree with Teddy on above posts. Let's not catch them at number by number, the general essence is agreeable.

25k is centrist view between doomsday 20k and best case 30k for SOFAD.

I also agree with CO being cautious with HR 3012. At the very worst I think if it does become law very late into the FY, like say in ending Q3, or Q4, it might at least get the category current for maximum intake.

[vedu]

Veni,

Thanks for your analysis. It's hard to argue with you since you have numbers to back up your analysis.


vedu,

Hopefully we will have Q4 PERM data published later this month to get a better picture for FY 2011.

Based on Dashboard data, below my observations ….

i-140:
USCIS was able to process more 140’s in sept’11 compared to any other month in FY2011. This could partly due to the fact that EB VISA numbers are not available for later-half of Sept’11.

Aug-Sept’11 processing volumes confirm backlog reduction (to some extent) for EB1 & EB2ROWMP at the end of FY.

FY2010 i-140 receipts = 77,280
FY2010 i-140 completions = 73,746
i-140 backlog at the beginning of FY 2011 = 25,563

FY2011 i-140 receipts = 81,678 (6% increase)
FY2011 i-140 completions = 91,418 (24% Increase)
i-140 backlog at the beginning of FY 2012 = 23,185 (9.3% decrease)

FY 2011 received ~4.4k more i-140 compared to FY 2010, same time USCIS processed ~17.7k more i-140 in FY2011 compared to FY2010 resulting in backlog reduction of ~13.3k ( incl EB1-2-3)

If we compare net-i140 pending at the beginning of FY’11 to end of FY’11 it’s reduced by ~2.4K only!

EB5:
FY2010 i-526 receipts = 1,955
FY2010 i-526 completions = 1,534 (21.5% less)
i-526 backlog at the beginning of FY 2011 = 1,125

FY2011 i-526 receipts = 3,805 (~100% increase)
FY2011 i-526 completions = 1,943 (~27% Increase)
i-526 backlog at the beginning of FY 2012 = 3,347 (~200% increase)


What this could mean for FY 2012 start compared to FY 2011?

I-140 backlog more or less same
EB1 backlog = almost doubled
EB2ROWMP backlog = more or less same
EB5 backlog = ??

If we assume similar to last year demand and processing for 140/485, means less SOFAD for FY2012 how much less?

Considering EB1 and EB5 backlog at this point I would say ~10k less compared to FY2011.

[vedu]

Teddy,

In the hindsight, I do agree with you for now regarding 25000 SOFAD. But I consider this as the worst case scenario.



@vedu - I respect your point, in all cases the receipts are still in the same range probably .7 to 1.2. Veni points to an overall 6% increase over the year. In early Sep the numbers were exhausted and there were 7K extra completions in Sep 2011. If 20% of them are Eb2 ROW and EB1 this itself will account for 3K. So probably a 5K reduction in SOFAD maybe reasonable since a lot of it also happened in the 2 preceding months. On another note keeping it around 15K is also not a standard they can bring it down right to 0 if they like that maybe too drastic to think however.

[suninphx]

Veni,

Thanks for your analysis. It's hard to argue with you since you have numbers to back up your analysis.

What was the ball park SOFAD figure for last FY? ( Or actual figure if we know that already :) )

[TeddyKoochu]

Based on numbers 'we know' you may be correct when you say movement will be less than 2 months. But my gut feeling is CO has better idea than us in terms of numbers and hence dates may move till end of Jun 2008 in next two bulletins. My primary driver for this gut feeling is that I have not seen such aggressive move by CO in recent past. And mind you numbers 'we know' were never supporting even the move which happened till date for this FY. So let's see how this goes. It's going to be interesting. I am sure like us CO is also curious to know 'real demand' going into 2008.

The cutoff of 01-Feb-2008 is really for actual approvals. That in no way prevents CO from testing the waters as much further as he likes that also quite true, you are absolutely right on that. Also I agree the point that we are at today nobody really thought quite literally however you would agree that there is a huge degree of discretion with CO on this and a huge degree of unknown even for CO on what will come out. If 25K was the mark he had in mind he has certainly overshot that. All calculations are entirely on how many people will finally be approved where the resting point will be will always have speculation embedded in it from our side and discretion from CO on the buffer he wants. Refer to Veni's post for some detailed calculations. With regards your question last year’s SOFAD was guesstinmated at 30K that how this figure came about, it will be only confirmed by the DOS annual report.

[GhostWriter]

Thanks Teddy. Also SOFAD of 25K sounds more reasonable assumption than 30K. Though each year is different, below are SOFAD numbers for EB2-IC (including the allotted quota) from 2008-2010. 2011 is awaited but people on this forum have estimates between 25-30K i think.
2008 - 26,466
2009 - 13,151
2010 - 21,761
Average - 20,459


@rdsingh79 - Quarterly spillover is definitely happening.
@vedu - I respect your point, in all cases the receipts are still in the same range probably .7 to 1.2. Veni points to an overall 6% increase over the year. In early Sep the numbers were exhausted and there were 7K extra completions in Sep 2011. If 20% of them are Eb2 ROW and EB1 this itself will account for 3K. So probably a 5K reduction in SOFAD maybe reasonable since a lot of it also happened in the 2 preceding months. On another note keeping it around 15K is also not a standard they can bring it down right to 0 if they like that maybe too drastic to think however.
@nishant2200 - Agree with the 25K figure. Now with 8.5K burnt out we have 16.5K left. This may put the final end point of the year somewhere in Jan 2008, its good for CO in a way that then another round of intakes can be justified. I believe the forward movement if at all in the next bulletin will be less than 2 months.
@veni thanks, especially for the I526 and EB5 with aggressive marketing we probably cannot take EB5 SOFAD for granted to remain at the same levels.
@ghostwriter yes they seem to be RFE’s and since the timeline is a month we might see high completions in Oct 2011 as well.
@Dondron – The chances of any forward movement beyond 2 months are significant very less now. In fact next month might see no movement or retrogression if intake has been deemed completed.

[GhostWriter]

Vedu, look at the last few years instead of just the last year and 25K will appear better than average case scenario than worst case.


Teddy,

In the hindsight, I do agree with you for now regarding 25000 SOFAD. But I consider this as the worst case scenario.

[suninphx]

The cutoff of 01-Feb-2008 is really for actual approvals. That in no way prevents CO from testing the waters as much further as he likes that also quite true, you are absolutely right on that. Also I agree the point that we are at today nobody really thought quite literally however you would agree that there is a huge degree of discretion with CO on this and a huge degree of unknown even for CO on what will come out. If 25K was the mark he had in mind he has certainly overshot that. All calculations are entirely on how many people will finally be approved where the resting point will be will always have speculation embedded in it from our side and discretion from CO on the buffer he wants. Refer to Veni's post for some detailed calculations. With regards your question last year’s SOFAD was guesstinmated at 30K that how this figure came about, it will be only confirmed by the DOS annual report.

I was replying to your prediction about forward movement in coming months. Veni's post is as always on the mark with all numbers. But again these are numbers ' we know'. My point is CO may have much better picture in terms of future demand than us. And if he is moving aggressively with some base line future demand then it's good news.

[TeddyKoochu]

I was replying to your prediction about forward movement in coming months. Veni's post is as always on the mark with all numbers. But again these are numbers ' we know'. My point is CO may have much better picture in terms of future demand than us. And if he is moving aggressively with some ase line future demand then it's good news.

Ok I understand your point fully now. Yes CO definitely would know the exact breakdown of I140's every month that are still active. From there it should be a very simple estimation. USCIS knows for sure if someone goes back, I140 is revoked, porting etc, so they should be having a fairly accurate snapshot. CP is not significant. I believe based on this he had given the 01-MAR announcement whether there will be additional movement different law firms had different versions. Some said 15th Mar in 2-3 months and some said movement for some 2-3 bulletins. Iam sure when CO made that statement he was aware of the I140 approvals for Sep as well these things must be being published internally. Now really its upto him what figure he has in his mind is it 25K or 30K for approvals some buffer or no buffer. I would really hope that he puts in something in the VB itself like some kind of guidance. The more the better so that more people can get EAD sooner, I don’t think the agencies value this point of view their goal is to show lower backlogs and higher efficiency.
From my personal standpoint I have always maintained that 30K will be possible only if they do not start to clean out the I140 backlog. Now since they have started to clean out @ 2.5 times and reduced the backlog by 20K in just 4 months I definitely feel it will impact the SOFAD by 5K. On another note the cases for Oct filers would ripen up soon some have already started to get EAD/AP cards. Before the dashboard update I was quite optimistic that we could have another 2-4 month movement since the 30K mark was not hit (2500 per month flat model) but now seems like the mark is 25K and we seemed to have crossed it with some buffer. So next month could be a 2 month forward movement in the best case scenario to retrogression for actual approvals, the line could be drawn far back and adjusted for the Oct PWMB files Apr 15 to Jul 15th.

[zenmaster]

You guys are all just awesome ! Calculations are perfect and point to correct dates.

However, my take is that, CO will want to move the dates significantly further (probably somewhere near end of 2008).
Here are my reasons :
1. If HR3012 becomes law : SFO needs to be around july/august 2008 by FY2012 completion.
2. If HR3012 does not become law : Demand Data build up would take about 4 to 6 months from the date of filing.... As a result, my take is, CO will not see demand as much as he wants to see at this time. He will have to move the dates forward for next couple of bulletins more at the same pace of 4 months each...

Lets hope for maximum fwd movement... because retrogression at some point is inevitable(thinking 3012 not becoming law)....

[suninphx]

Ok I understand your point fully now. Yes CO definitely would know the exact breakdown of I140's every month that are still active. From there it should be a very simple estimation. USCIS knows for sure if someone goes back, I140 is revoked, porting etc, so they should be having a fairly accurate snapshot. CP is not significant. I believe based on this he had given the 01-MAR announcement whether there will be additional movement different law firms had different versions. Some said 15th Mar in 2-3 months and some said movement for some 2-3 bulletins. Iam sure when CO made that statement he was aware of the I140 approvals for Sep as well these things must be being published internally. Now really its upto him what figure he has in his mind is it 25K or 30K for approvals some buffer or no buffer. I would really hope that he puts in something in the VB itself like some kind of guidance. The more the better so that more people can get EAD sooner, I don’t think the agencies value this point of view their goal is to show lower backlogs and higher efficiency.
From my personal standpoint I have always maintained that 30K will be possible only if they do not start to clean out the I140 backlog. Now since they have started to clean out @ 2.5 times and reduced the backlog by 20K in just 4 months I definitely feel it will impact the SOFAD by 5K. On another note the cases for Oct filers would ripen up soon some have already started to get EAD/AP cards. Before the dashboard update I was quite optimistic that we could have another 2-4 month movement since the 30K mark was not hit (2500 per month flat model) but now seems like the mark is 25K and we seemed to have crossed it with some buffer. So next month could be a 2 month forward movement in the best case scenario to retrogression for actual approvals, the line could be drawn far back and adjusted for the Oct PWMB files Apr 15 to Jul 15th.

I see what you are saying. Let's see how it goes. Thanks for your time and inputs.

[vizcard]

You guys are all just awesome ! Calculations are perfect and point to correct dates.

However, my take is that, CO will want to move the dates significantly further (probably somewhere near end of 2008).
Here are my reasons :
1. If HR3012 becomes law : SFO needs to be around july/august 2008 by FY2012 completion.
2. If HR3012 does not become law : Demand Data build up would take about 4 to 6 months from the date of filing.... As a result, my take is, CO will not see demand as much as he wants to see at this time. He will have to move the dates forward for next couple of bulletins more at the same pace of 4 months each...

Lets hope for maximum fwd movement... because retrogression at some point is inevitable(thinking 3012 not becoming law)....

I hope you are right. There are calculations and data and then there's gut feel which counts for a lot when you've been doing something a long time. I would really love to get inside CO's brain to see how its working coz god knows it is defying the calculations piece.. maybe its just a gut feel.

[self.coach]

Zen, any predictions on how much retrogression will occur?


You guys are all just awesome ! Calculations are perfect and point to correct dates.

However, my take is that, CO will want to move the dates significantly further (probably somewhere near end of 2008).
Here are my reasons :
1. If HR3012 becomes law : SFO needs to be around july/august 2008 by FY2012 completion.
2. If HR3012 does not become law : Demand Data build up would take about 4 to 6 months from the date of filing.... As a result, my take is, CO will not see demand as much as he wants to see at this time. He will have to move the dates forward for next couple of bulletins more at the same pace of 4 months each...

Lets hope for maximum fwd movement... because retrogression at some point is inevitable(thinking 3012 not becoming law)....

[vizcard]

Zen, any predictions on how much retrogression will occur?

General consensus is no earlier than summer 2007. Also, it will jump back in the Q1 2013.

[self.coach]

Okay...just so I understand this correctly, we are talking about forward movement to around Nov 2008 by Feb-Mar 2012, and the retrogression to around June-Aug 2007 by mid-2012, and then no further movement till Q1 2013 after which we expect to jump back.

How big will be those movement strides starting Q1 2013 - as substantial as the ones we have seen in past couple of months? My PD is EB2 Aug 2009 so based on this discussion, I think I will be able to file i-485 sometime mid-2014 instead of mid-2013 which I originaly thought was possible.


General consensus is no earlier than summer 2007. Also, it will jump back in the Q1 2013.

[leo4ever]

I think dates moving till Nov 2008 by Feb-Mar 2012 is little over optimistic, although i would love it. I would expect till Jul 2008 Max by the end of this FY12 as some people got CP notice.


Okay...just so I understand this correctly, we are talking about forward movement to around Nov 2008 by Feb-Mar 2012, and the retrogression to around June-Aug 2007 by mid-2012, and then no further movement till Q1 2013 after which we expect to jump back.

How big will be those movement strides starting Q1 2013 - as substantial as the ones we have seen in past couple of months? My PD is EB2 Aug 2009 so based on this discussion, I think I will be able to file i-485 sometime mid-2014 instead of mid-2013 which I originaly thought was possible.

[Chilli19]

Here is the link for the top 100 companies with most GC applications filed in Yr 2011 & 2010 etc.
http://www.myvisajobs.com/Reports/Green-Card-Top-2011.aspx?P=1
I heard that Wipro is not sponsoring GC for EB2 & EB3 but i see Wipro stood 62nd place. Cognizant is Top 1 in the list. My company stood 90th place.

[oct17pd]

Here is the link for the top 100 companies with most GC applications filed in Yr 2011 & 2010 etc.
http://www.myvisajobs.com/Reports/Green-Card-Top-2011.aspx?P=1
I heard that Wipro is not sponsoring GC for EB2 & EB3 but i see Wipro stood 62nd place. Cognizant is Top 1 in the list. My company stood 90th place.

i doubt that data ..as it mentions lehman brothers at rant 81 ......

[vizcard]

I think dates moving till Nov 2008 by Feb-Mar 2012 is little over optimistic, although i would love it. I would expect till Jul 2008 Max by the end of this FY12 as some people got CP notice.

Nov is almost a pipe dream. As you said, Aug 1, 2008 is more likely by next Sept

[vizcard]

I think dates moving till Nov 2008 by Feb-Mar 2012 is little over optimistic, although i would love it. I would expect till Jul 2008 Max by the end of this FY12 as some people got CP notice.


i doubt that data ..as it mentions lehman brothers at rant 81 ......

Almost all the Lehman ones are "withdrawn or denied" with a few exceptions.

My company is in the Top 25 :)

[gcdedo]

Weird Infosys is not in top 100.

[mysati]

Probably, they are lying low after all the scrutiny and subpoenas


Weird Infosys is not in top 100.

[GCKnowHow]

One of my friend got NVC fee notice for CP (PD Sep 2008). Does this mean next VB could move till Oct 2008???

[leo07]

Not next VB...likely in the next 12 months.

One of my friend got NVC fee notice for CP (PD Oct 2008). Does this mean next VB could move till Oct 2008???

[brishabh]

Oct 2008- that is new and exciting... do you know what exact date in Oct? and when did he receive this notice.

Thanks



One of my friend got NVC fee notice for CP (PD Oct 2008). Does this mean next VB could move till Oct 2008???

[leo07]

I'm sure two questions are lingering in everyone's mind: ( I definitely know few :))
-- When would the retrogression begin? ( if)
-- How far back could it go whenever it retrogresses? ( iff )

Any takers?

[natvyas]

I'm sure two questions are lingering in everyone's mind: ( I definitely know few :))
-- When would the retrogression begin? ( if)
-- How far back could it go whenever it retrogresses? ( iff )

Any takers?

-- When ? I would guess sometime around March 2012 because by Mar 2012, the applications would change into documentarily qualified demand (considering it takes 4-5 months from filing)

-- The farthest it would go back is August 1 2007 since they have implemented QSP and have wiped out all demand prior to August 07

[pdmay2008]

-- When ? I would guess sometime around March 2012 because by Mar 2012, the applications would change into documentarily qualified demand (considering it takes 4-5 months from filing)

-- The farthest it would go back is August 1 2007 since they have implemented QSP and have wiped out all demand prior to August 07

That being said, next month VB will at least move to June 1st 2008. Which is 2.5 months.

[natvyas]

I personally believe that the CO will advance the dates by another 2-3 months (either in one go or a batch of 2). The reason for this belief is that the "demand" will only be generated 4-5 months from the date of filing. The first lot was starting November which will turn into demand only in March. Hence I think we will make 2 more movements of alteast 4-6 weeks each. This way the CO will be true to his word as well.

From MURTHY'S NEWS FLASH DATED 28th OCTOBER.

EB2 India and China: More Movement Likely in January and February

In addition to the predictions for December 2011, the DOS also anticipates similar levels of advancement during January and February 2012. No specific cutoff dates were given as predictions for these months. The reason for this advancement, as explained in previous MurthyBulletin articles, is that the prior movement of EB2 cutoff dates has allowed for the approval of the vast majority of pending EB2 I-485 cases. Thus, since I-485 cases take approximately four to six months for U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) processing, the DOS has to move the cutoff dates forward to allow for enough I-485 filings to fill the (largely empty) pipeline of cases. This has to be done far enough in advance of the end of FY12 (September 30) for cases to be approved before the end of the fiscal year. Otherwise, if there are not enough cases ready for approval, the visa numbers could go unused.

Since the advancement of dates is based upon anticipated demand, once enough demand has materialized, the advancement will not continue at the same pace, and it may be necessary to retrogress the cutoff dates. It appears however that, for at least the next few months, the news in EB2 will be good.

[leo4ever]

Is this first hand information from your friend? If yes, can you check his PD?


One of my friend got NVC fee notice for CP (PD Oct 2008). Does this mean next VB could move till Oct 2008???

[GCKnowHow]

Oct 2008- that is new and exciting... do you know what exact date in Oct? and when did he receive this notice.

Thanks

11th sep (not oct). Got the letter today.

[gkjppp]

seems like 2010 EB2I PD's needs to wait for atleast 18+ months ...HR3012 could move it faster.

[brishabh]

11th sep (not oct). Got the letter today.

oh well... thanks for posting though...

[vizcard]

oh well... thanks for posting though...

Sept 11 is definitely way ahead of the last confirmed case (jul 30). So we can say that by FY end it should go till 9/15. They generally say 6-12 months. So yah for me!!!

[kpt112107]

In last page of I-693, doctor filled dates in 6th column instead of 5th column. I asked doctor but he said that will be ok. But my lawer is saying that "I’d say get it corrected if you can. Lets try and avoid any future RFEs"

Any idea? Could you please check yours and let me know...

[self.coach]

Q, are you still here? Havent seen a post from you recently..

[bieber]

natvyas

if there will not be much documentarily qualified demand till Mar/Apr 2012, why would CO move dates only 6 weeks? It appears next 2 bulletins will have atleast 6 months cutoff movement before retrogression begins in either March or April

[Feb262009]

I believe the NVC notices are sent out because they wanna be prepared, if the H.R. 3012 becomes a law. Remember the notice itself expires in 1 year, but not the payment. If H.R. 3012 becomes law, they will need all this applications in their pipeline. With this in mind, I believe 3 -4 months of forward movement will be in Jan bulletin which comes in Dec. But the Feb bulletin will be forward/retrogress depending on the fate of H.R. 3012.

[president99]

Also, when march 2012 comes, wouldn't the 2nd QSP happen? Should that not make the retrogress towards end of Sep 2007 rather than Aug-1 2007. Gurus, can u enlighten us a bit more about QSP :
1) Does it happen through the quarter or in the last month of the quarter?
2) How much QSP is expected every quarter this year?...Tx

[natvyas]

Bieber and Feb262009

You have a point. The interesting thing in the Murthy News Bulletin dated 28th October is that Murthy also believes that USCIS is monitoring filings. "The DOS monitors the filings to determine whether anticipated demand matches the actual demand for visa numbers." However USCIS cannot be sure until it turns into actual demand. Owing to these 2 reasons I think we will see 2-3 months movement in next 2 months.

Cheers
Nat

[leo07]

QSP has not happened in the previous years. This year, it appears to be happening, I can't think of any other explanation from where visas could come for EB2IC.
So, If I assume that QSP is happening, I think 4-6k / quarter is a reasonable(probable) number.

oh for (1), it has to happen on the last month(3rd) of the quarter, but not necessary. As some one pointed out earlier, CIS might have gotten so efficient that they might as well do weekly spill-over :) (WSP??)


Also, when march 2012 comes, wouldn't the 2nd QSP happen? Should that not make the retrogress towards end of Sep 2007 rather than Aug-1 2007. Gurus, can u enlighten us a bit more about QSP :
1) Does it happen through the quarter or in the last month of the quarter?
2) How much QSP is expected every quarter this year?...Tx

[leo07]

I'm not sure how much of guess work they are allowed to do. Unless they have some credible information flowing from high up. IMO, it's more likely that CP's have a internal memo or an unofficial rule-book types document that requires them to send notices to Current PD+6 Months or Current PD+12months depending on their internal volume. Just something that I pulled out of no where, as your question made me think :)

I believe the NVC notices are sent out because they wanna be prepared, if the H.R. 3012 becomes a law. Remember the notice itself expires in 1 year, but not the payment. If H.R. 3012 becomes law, they will need all this applications in their pipeline. With this in mind, I believe 3 -4 months of forward movement will be in Jan bulletin which comes in Dec. But the Feb bulletin will be forward/retrogress depending on the fate of H.R. 3012.

[leo07]

I'm Qrious to know as well where Q is:)

Q, are you still here? Havent seen a post from you recently..

[qesehmk]

self-coach and Leo, I am very much around. Some of you have become so good at looking at data and all, I am not able to keep my self current with everything. So don't have much value to add over and above what others folks are talking about.

At a macro level I am quite confident that backlog through Jan-Mar 2008 will actually be cleared for EB2IC by sep 2012. Which means that after a brief lull or retrogression, the dates will start moving again. Basically as a rule of thumb I will say 1 year movement per year would be conservative movement, unless something fundamentally changes such as Kazarian memo rescended, 3012 is passed or economy jumpstarts - the chances of all of which are quite miserable as you can imagine!

So overall feel quite good about the movement so far. Don't think the point of retrogression has arrived yet. But I do think we are close to that. So max 1-2 bulletins will have good news if at all. And then the dates will settle around Mar-Apr 2008.

[qesehmk]

Guys if you would like, pls do vote for the charity to where to donate the ad revenue from November.

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/poll.php?do=showresults&pollid=8

[vizcard]

self-coach and Leo, I am very much around. Some of you have become so good at looking at data and all, I am not able to keep my self current with everything. So don't have much value to add over and above what others folks are talking about.

At a macro level I am quite confident that backlog through Jan-Mar 2008 will actually be cleared for EB2IC by sep 2012. Which means that after a brief lull or retrogression, the dates will start moving again. Basically as a rule of thumb I will say 1 year movement per year would be conservative movement, unless something fundamentally changes such as Kazarian memo rescended, 3012 is passed or economy jumpstarts - the chances of all of which are quite miserable as you can imagine!

So overall feel quite good about the movement so far. Don't think the point of retrogression has arrived yet. But I do think we are close to that. So max 1-2 bulletins will have good news if at all. And then the dates will settle around Mar-Apr 2008.

So if by Sept they finish off March 2008, I imagine they would need a minimum of 6 months to start FY13 as they won't have the luxury of PWMB ... which would mean that they would need to move it till Oct 1, 2008 before Oct 1, 2012... that would imply more than one year movement, right? What am I missing or misinterpreting?

[self.coach]

So if by Sept they finish off March 2008, I imagine they would need a minimum of 6 months to start FY13 as they won't have the luxury of PWMB ... which would mean that they would need to move it till Oct 1, 2008 before Oct 1, 2012... that would imply more than one year movement, right? What am I missing or misinterpreting?

Yes I think Oct 1 2008 before Oct 1 2012 is a safe bet.....unless the retrogression is bigger and/or subsequent movement is slower.

[yesman]

So if by Sept they finish off March 2008, I imagine they would need a minimum of 6 months to start FY13 as they won't have the luxury of PWMB ... which would mean that they would need to move it till Oct 1, 2008 before Oct 1, 2012... that would imply more than one year movement, right? What am I missing or misinterpreting?
Sorry, I don't understand this. PWMB were also PWBA until the beginning of this FY. So, how does it matter that would be no equivalent of PWMB for FY 2013? There will be a ton of people with approved 140s that can submit 485 as soon as they are current.

[vizcard]

Sorry, I don't understand this. PWMB were also PWBA until the beginning of this FY. So, how does it matter that would be no equivalent of PWMB for FY 2013? There will be a ton of people with approved 140s that can submit 485 as soon as they are current.

The premise of that statement was that CO had a pretty good handle on number of PWMB. Maybe this was a wrong premise. Assuming that statement is accurate, then this year's pipeline started with PWMB+Porting+some TRUE PWBA. Next Oct we will have only Porting + PWBA i.e. Business as usual skewed a little by Porting. Net effect maybe the same in terms of numbers but the difference is uncertaintyin terms of the actual numbers.

Without a clear handle on PWBA numbers (as he had with PWMB) math goes out of the window and now its a matter of gut check and how much he "feels" dates need to be moved ahead to make sure there's enough of a pipeline. Ofcourse if my premise that CO knew PWMB numbers is wrong, then what you say is true.

Regardless, the point of the post was that we would could possibly move to Oct 1, 2008 by end of this FY which also jives with the known Sept 11, 2008 NVC receipt date.

[leo07]

Thanks Q. It appears to be closed, I couldn't vote. I would have voted for Akshayapatra, which TK,Nishanth and other have already voted for and leading by a margin:)

Guys if you would like, pls do vote for the charity to where to donate the ad revenue from November.

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/poll.php?do=showresults&pollid=8

[imdeng]

IF PDs increase significantly in the coming VB then we should consider it as a confirmation of CO building the inventory in anticipation of HR-3012. We already have enough inventory to handle the coming SO - any more inventory is not needed for estimated spillover of 25K - but will be needed to fill HR-3012's requirements since the bill will be active retroactively. If the bill passes before this FY is through and CO has not built an EB2IC inventory of 85% of total EB2I allotment then CO will not be able to meet the provisions of the bill. Now, assuming we are getting a total of 52K EB2 visas in FY2012 (40K EB2 Quota + 10K from EB1 + 2K from EB5) then CO will need an EB2IC inventory of 0.85*52K ~ 44K.

This would mean that we have another 20K of inventory buildup left. Assuming 2.5K/month that comes to 8 months. So, IF CO is building inventory for HR-3012, then we should see PD moving to 03/15/08 + 8 Months = 11/15/08. Perhaps in 2 month steps each in next four bulletins?

PS> Please remember to call/write to/meet with your congress rep and senators to show your support for HR-3012.

[march272010]

Heard the perms applied by cognizant in 2008 nearly 500 got approved recently after auditing...dont know how many more like that

[pdmay2008]

IF PDs increase significantly in the coming VB then we should consider it as a confirmation of CO building the inventory in anticipation of HR-3012. We already have enough inventory to handle the coming SO - any more inventory is not needed for estimated spillover of 25K - but will be needed to fill HR-3012's requirements since the bill will be active retroactively. If the bill passes before this FY is through and CO has not built an EB2IC inventory of 85% of total EB2I allotment then CO will not be able to meet the provisions of the bill. Now, assuming we are getting a total of 52K EB2 visas in FY2012 (40K EB2 Quota + 10K from EB1 + 2K from EB5) then CO will need an EB2IC inventory of 0.85*52K ~ 44K.

This would mean that we have another 20K of inventory buildup left. Assuming 2.5K/month that comes to 8 months. So, IF CO is building inventory for HR-3012, then we should see PD moving to 03/15/08 + 8 Months = 11/15/08. Perhaps in 2 month steps each in next four bulletins?

PS> Please remember to call/write to/meet with your congress rep and senators to show your support for HR-3012.

I don't think CO will move dates in anticipation of a upcoming bill. He is doing what he is supposed to do at this time. Just build the pipeline up to certain point with some buffer, so that he can cover the ground for this spill over season with out wasting any numbers. Since he does not have any thing in the demand pipeline it is very risky for him to sit at this level with out moving dates further. He will collect the demand in smaller chunks in each bulletin until he sees enough demand to satisfy this years demand and next years Q1 approvals.

[Kanmani]

imdeng

Spillover visas are distributed purely by Priority date seniority. I think 85% rule ( as per HR3012 ) applies only to 40K.


IF PDs increase significantly in the coming VB then we should consider it as a confirmation of CO building the inventory in anticipation of HR-3012. We already have enough inventory to handle the coming SO - any more inventory is not needed for estimated spillover of 25K - but will be needed to fill HR-3012's requirements since the bill will be active retroactively. If the bill passes before this FY is through and CO has not built an EB2IC inventory of 85% of total EB2I allotment then CO will not be able to meet the provisions of the bill. Now, assuming we are getting a total of 52K EB2 visas in FY2012 (40K EB2 Quota + 10K from EB1 + 2K from EB5) then CO will need an EB2IC inventory of 0.85*52K ~ 44K.

This would mean that we have another 20K of inventory buildup left. Assuming 2.5K/month that comes to 8 months. So, IF CO is building inventory for HR-3012, then we should see PD moving to 03/15/08 + 8 Months = 11/15/08. Perhaps in 2 month steps each in next four bulletins?

PS> Please remember to call/write to/meet with your congress rep and senators to show your support for HR-3012.

[imdeng]

Thats even better. That would mean 12K + 0.85*40K = 46K of EB2IC inventory needed to meet HR-3012 requirement for FY2012.

imdeng

Spillover visas are distributed purely by Priority date seniority. I think 85% rule ( as per HR3012 ) applies only to 40K.

[scion78]

From the CO's perspective it is more risky for him to not have enough pipeline to fulfill the numbers under various circumstances (bill passes or doesnt pass). He always has retrogression to use as a tool in case he ends up moving the dates too far out. So again the larger risk is not having the 4-5 months of pipeline ready for any eventuality.