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Thread: WhereismyGC.com Related Discussion & Updates

  1. #1

    Post WhereismyGC.com Related Discussion & Updates

    Update Sep 09 - Visa Bulletin Commentary Added

    Before we start with forecast commentary let us explain briefly what WhereismyGC is and how this site’s forecast and other services should be used.

    About WhereismyGC
    WhereismyGC is a website founded by immigrants. Its purpose is to bring clarity to immigration process and make the immigration easier for backlogged candidates. We are not in the business of giving you false hope or painting the most optimistic picture for you. Our goal is to empower you with information so that you can make better decisions about your career and life. Our products and services are designed around this philosophy.

    Today the site provides access to
    1) Self-service Forecast Tool.
    2) Standardized (fixed price) and good quality lawyer services.

    How to use the forecast
    We are the pioneers in forecasting using data and models. We imitate the visa allocation process as laid out by the immigration laws, and use algorithms and real forecasting models to give you a result.

    The picture coming out of our algorithms may not be what you desire. But you should take it seriously because numbers do not lie. There is a fixed supply of immigration visas and the immigration laws do not help backlogged candidates because they discriminate based on the country of birth of candidates.

    The site provides a dashboard with 3 scenarios (optimistic, likely, and pessimistic). Each scenario can be viewed in details that contain current and future backlog and expected backlog reduction as well as current year visa allocation.

    To view the likely scenario in detail please use myForecast. The other two scenarios can only be viewed using iForecast. iForecast also allows you to adjust certain parameters and create your own forecast.

    General Commentary

    Immigration is like a balloon, you press it in one place and it pops out from other side.
    Since 2007, there are multiple trends we are seeing that threaten backlogged candidates.
    A) Portings:
    There has been a trend in EB3 candidates porting to EB2. Since 2007, the rules of spillover were changed to horizontal spillover, EB2 stopped providing any spillover to EB3. Thus EB3 backlog became quite acute which prompted EB3 candidates to port to EB2.
    B) EB2 vs EB3 Mix:
    In the old days EB2 to EB3 filing ratio was 1:2. Over time it has changed to 2:1 or worse. This particularly is bad for countries like India and China who traditionally have received large amount of spillover from EB2ROW. If ROW starts filing in EB2 then that doesn’t leave many visas for India and China.
    C) Utilization of EB5/1
    Recently EB1 / 5 have been using nearly the entire allocation leaving little to none as all down/fall up visas to EB2. This hits hard for EB2 and EB3 categories.

    Cumulative effective of these trends is that EB2 backlogged candidates virtually have been left with no room and are on way to be on par with their EB3 counterparts.

    Latest Visa Bulletin

    The Oct 2015 Visa Bulletin is not surprising. EB3ROW is practically current. And EB2 India is retrogressed as expected.

    What is interesting is that this time around DoS has introduced a 2 tier system of dates. One set of dates applies to country categories from visa availability stand point. And the other date applies from the stand point of ability to file 485.

    It is good to see EB2I applicants with dates upto 1 Jul 2011 can file 485. That's approx 14 months improvement over last max date reached for EB2I which was May 2010 a couple of years back.

    However this 2 tier system begs a few questions:
    1) Why didn't DoS implement it before? It seems that restrictions on ability to file 485 is an administrative discretion rather than a legal impendiment.
    2) What makes DoS choose Jul 2011 for EB2I? What is so magical about it.

    Our initial assessment is that this is not a nice move on part of DoS as it seems to be. It is another way to build just enough inventory for EB2I without yielding any extra visas to EB2I.

    So what constitutes "just enough"? A top of the head (to be updated) number would be somewhere between 30-40K for EB2I.

    So why would 30-40K be just enough? We really don't have an answer to that however it is possible that looking at the time horizon those people are at the risk of abandoning their GC. So DoS may have been pressurized to let those people file 485.

    Whatever the real reason may be - we can confidently say that while this may seem reprieve; it also raises more questions than answers.

    Meanwhile congratulations to those with the newfound ability to file 485. Life is certainly much better for you.
    Last edited by whereismygc; 09-09-2015 at 08:59 PM.

  2. #2
    Teddy & Gurus,

    Whereismygc.com is reporting that with my PD(EB2-I, Nov2010) I shall be current on or before March 2013, does this still hold good based on the latest bulletin and Demand data?

  3. #3
    Teddy & Gurus,

    Whereismygc.com is reporting that with my PD(EB2-I, Nov2010) I shall be current on or before March 2013, does this still hold good based on the latest bulletin and Demand data?
    I posted this question yesterday as well.

  4. #4
    Nov2010,

    The tool doesn't reflect 2 things right now.
    1. Higher EB1 Usage
    2. Uneven approvals e.g. 2007 left behind while 2008 is getting approved.

    The first one is easy to fix. The second one is a tough one given the tool by default predicts FIFO approvals and now we will have to position this for these uneven approvals.
    We would fix these things by this weekend. Please check back on Sunday.

    Quote Originally Posted by Nov2010 View Post
    Teddy & Gurus,

    Whereismygc.com is reporting that with my PD(EB2-I, Nov2010) I shall be current on or before March 2013, does this still hold good based on the latest bulletin and Demand data?
    I posted this question yesterday as well.

  5. #5
    Dear Users,

    Today at WhereismyGC.Com we released a new functionality called myPost.

    This is and will be FREE functionality. That's our promise.

    At qesehmk blog we noticed that people post lots of links that get buried in the blog and people can't ready reference them later. So we created this functionality where all useful linked can be found in one place. Check it out at www.whereismygc.com

    Your feedback and comments for improvement are very welcome!
    All the best in your GC journey.

  6. #6
    Nice. It is surely a good initiative and I do see it will be really useful to the users on the blog who actively provides help on this forum.

    Here are some of my inputs:

    1: It's good when there are fewer links but as the links start pouring in, there needs to be more advanced searching facility instead of just filter dropdows.
    2: Anybody can input, so is the featured moderated or not? Otherwise there are tons of spammer around.
    3: If I post a link and did some mistake in typing or pasted a wrong link, there's no way to change it. Also it be be helpful if I can find links I posted.
    4: Does the tool check the links for duplicates before it's posted?

    Thanks.

    Quote Originally Posted by whereismygc View Post
    Dear Users,

    Today at WhereismyGC.Com we released a new functionality called myPost.

    This is and will be FREE functionality. That's our promise.

    At qesehmk blog we noticed that people post lots of links that get buried in the blog and people can't ready reference them later. So we created this functionality where all useful linked can be found in one place. Check it out at www.whereismygc.com

    Your feedback and comments for improvement are very welcome!
    All the best in your GC journey.

    NSC - EB2I | PD: Sept, 2007 | RD: 03-Nov, 2011 | ND: 08-Nov, 2011 | FP Notice: 10-Dec,2011| FP Done: 30-Dec,2011
    EAD/AP(Approval Email): 09-Dec, 2011 | EAD/AP(Physical Card): 15-Dec, 2011
    GC(Approval Email): 27-Jan, 2012 | GC(Physical Card): 01-Feb, 2012


  7. #7
    gc0907, thank you for the feedback. Appreciate it.

    Will consider providing more advance search (perhaps text) in future.

    The overall functionality being social in nature is quite informal and so didn't include modify feature. But yes in future that could be considered.

    But in terms moderation - we don't really want to policy people and their thoughts. If something offensive is posted, of course we will remove it. But generally people are free to post all useful immigration links. Same with duplication - there will be duplication but then don't really want to delete user provided content. So we will have to live with it. Perhaps we can remove links that no longer are valid. So if a link hits error page - we can remove it programatically.

    Thanks again for the inputs. It is very useful to keep improving.

    Quote Originally Posted by gc0907 View Post
    Nice. It is surely a good initiative and I do see it will be really useful to the users on the blog who actively provides help on this forum.

    Here are some of my inputs:

    1: It's good when there are fewer links but as the links start pouring in, there needs to be more advanced searching facility instead of just filter dropdows.
    2: Anybody can input, so is the featured moderated or not? Otherwise there are tons of spammer around.
    3: If I post a link and did some mistake in typing or pasted a wrong link, there's no way to change it. Also it be be helpful if I can find links I posted.
    4: Does the tool check the links for duplicates before it's posted?

    Thanks.

  8. #8
    Guys .. a humble request about using myPost on whereismygc.

    Please post what would be useful to others. Please do not post your personal requests. Use my email instead qesehmk@gmail.com for your personal questions. I saw such request today that I had to remove. Please respect others' right to read clean information. Thank you!
    The purpose of this site is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better. Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
    Please follow the Forum Rules and Guidelines as you participate or view the forum contents. | Forum Glossary

  9. #9
    Sorry Q,

    I admit, I was the one who was the culprit.

    For last 6 months I tried to post on forum but could not do it. Hence it was my last resort to let you admins know.

    Won't happen again.

    Thanks

  10. #10
    No worries vrs. Take it easy. Lets blame it on junk boxes of our mailboxes!! Sorry u had to wait 6 months!
    Quote Originally Posted by vrs7734 View Post
    Sorry Q,

    I admit, I was the one who was the culprit.

    For last 6 months I tried to post on forum but could not do it. Hence it was my last resort to let you admins know.

    Won't happen again.

    Thanks
    The purpose of this site is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better. Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
    Please follow the Forum Rules and Guidelines as you participate or view the forum contents. | Forum Glossary

  11. #11
    Quote Originally Posted by whereismygc View Post
    Nov2010,

    The tool doesn't reflect 2 things right now.
    1. Higher EB1 Usage
    2. Uneven approvals e.g. 2007 left behind while 2008 is getting approved.

    The first one is easy to fix. The second one is a tough one given the tool by default predicts FIFO approvals and now we will have to position this for these uneven approvals.
    We would fix these things by this weekend. Please check back on Sunday.
    Is the 'second' issue fixed?

  12. #12
    IIWTT - thanks for nudging me!! You and VRS moved me to act on it.

    I have applied a fix that solves this. Still have some things to do. But directionally the fix is working. Basically I applied a -ve correction to 2008 data for EB2IC.

    Sorry this took so long. I was too busy getting new functionality in and ignored this thinking that rest of the 2012 is uneventful and people may not be interested. My bad! Pl check and let me know if you have additional feedback.

    Quote Originally Posted by IsItWorthTheTrouble View Post
    Is the 'second' issue fixed?

  13. #13
    Quote Originally Posted by whereismygc View Post
    IIWTT - thanks for nudging me!! You and VRS moved me to act on it.

    I have applied a fix that solves this. Still have some things to do. But directionally the fix is working. Basically I applied a -ve correction to 2008 data for EB2IC.

    Sorry this took so long. I was too busy getting new functionality in and ignored this thinking that rest of the 2012 is uneventful and people may not be interested. My bad! Pl check and let me know if you have additional feedback.
    Hey,
    First-of-all, I admire your entreprenurial spirit in coming up with this site. Here's some of my feedback.

    1. I now see that it gives me a forecast that my data will be current in Sep 2012 & approval around Jan 2013. Is this w/wo the fix for the 2nd issue because I feel it isn't factoring in COs announcement that dates aren't going to move past Aug/sep 2007 till spring of '13. if the forecast is based on data, can you pls explain it in as much simple terms as possible probably for the benefit of all?

    2. The custom forecast has Best, Average & worst case scenario options but none of the data in the demand area below changes when I click on these options. IMO, since most users wouldn't be aware of the right numbers to input, wouldn't it be more simple from an user point of view if they just choose the scenario & get a date.

    3. I like the summary concept on the main page but could the points be on seperate lines so as to make the information easily digestable.

    4. The following statement in the 'narrative' seems to be a typo: The retrogression for EB2ROW is a temporary thing and we shouldnt expect this to continue past Oct 2013. Did you mean to say Oct 2012?

  14. #14
    Iiwtt thx again!
    Appreciate the feedback. Will certainly improve. Fixed #4. Yes u r right it meant 2012!!

    Thx again!

    Quote Originally Posted by IsItWorthTheTrouble View Post
    Hey,
    First-of-all, I admire your entreprenurial spirit in coming up with this site. Here's some of my feedback.

    1. I now see that it gives me a forecast that my data will be current in Sep 2012 & approval around Jan 2013. Is this w/wo the fix for the 2nd issue because I feel it isn't factoring in COs announcement that dates aren't going to move past Aug/sep 2007 till spring of '13. if the forecast is based on data, can you pls explain it in as much simple terms as possible probably for the benefit of all?

    2. The custom forecast has Best, Average & worst case scenario options but none of the data in the demand area below changes when I click on these options. IMO, since most users wouldn't be aware of the right numbers to input, wouldn't it be more simple from an user point of view if they just choose the scenario & get a date.

    3. I like the summary concept on the main page but could the points be on seperate lines so as to make the information easily digestable.

    4. The following statement in the 'narrative' seems to be a typo: The retrogression for EB2ROW is a temporary thing and we shouldnt expect this to continue past Oct 2013. Did you mean to say Oct 2012?

  15. #15
    whereismygc,

    My PD is Jan 2009 EB2I. Your tool predicts getting current by March 2013. But the discussion in the threads indicate 2007 won't be crossed in 2013. Could you please clarify?

    thanks.



    Quote Originally Posted by whereismygc View Post
    Spec Thanks for clarifying.




    vrs - I have fixed the tool. Generally speaking the problem is that the tool works on FIFO manner. And that works quite well generally. However in 2012 DOS/USCIS approved large number of 2008 cases. Other than that I also had a long pending task of fixing the data. Which most of it I did today. So please check back and let me know if you have further questions on the whereismygc thread.

  16. #16
    ksur,

    1/3rd of 2008 is already approved. 2007 has only 5K left. That's a total of about 1/3*(30K)+5 = 25K.

    So the million dollar question is will 25K be approved in 2013? I think yes. Some others think not Honestly nobody has crystal ball. We are all blind!

    Quote Originally Posted by ksur23 View Post
    whereismygc,

    My PD is Jan 2009 EB2I. Your tool predicts getting current by March 2013. But the discussion in the threads indicate 2007 won't be crossed in 2013. Could you please clarify?

    thanks.
    The purpose of this site is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better. Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
    Please follow the Forum Rules and Guidelines as you participate or view the forum contents. | Forum Glossary

  17. #17
    fair enough. thanks.

  18. #18
    Dear Users,

    We at WhereismyGC.com continuously are improving the site to offer YOU better clarity and understanding of GC status.

    We have recently launched a NEW personalized DASHBOARD. Please check it out at http://www.whereismygc.com

    Between now and Friday, the entire site is free for your use. This includes all the premium content as well. So feel free to take benefit!

    Enjoy the NEW DASHBOARD as well as FREE BENEFITS for a limited time.

    Team WhereismyGC.com

  19. #19
    Dear Users,

    Based on the latest 485 inventory, we have updated the 2013 and beyond predictions for EB green card. Please check out at http://www.whereismygc.com

    Feel free to reach out at help@whereismygc.com if you have any questions or feedback.

    Thank you and Regards,

    Team WhereismyGC

  20. #20

    Problem using where is my gc site

    Hi Q,

    I forgot password to whereismygc.com and if try to enter my email account to send password, I get error ("Unable to send email") and also not able to create a new account.

    Thanks.

  21. #21
    asankaran,

    Please send your email address to help@whereismygc.com

    We will fix it ASAP.

    Quote Originally Posted by asankaran View Post
    Hi Q,

    I forgot password to whereismygc.com and if try to enter my email account to send password, I get error ("Unable to send email") and also not able to create a new account.

    Thanks.

  22. #22
    Whereismygc.com will offer FREE 1 day subscription on Monday the 10th.

    Please visit www.whereismygc.com if interested!

  23. #23
    Below Expired...

    Dear Users,

    This is a complimentary FREE OFFER for the daily plan at Whereismygc.com. This offer is valid ONLY for Monday 10th Dec.

    Please use the promotion code 1DAYOFF and get FREE 1 DAY ACCESS at WhereismyGC. In case of problems, please write to us at sales@whereismygc.com.

    Best Wishes,
    Team WhereismyGC
    http://www.whereismygc.com

    Above Expired...
    p.s. Also available 15% OFF on Monthly and 30% OFF on Annual membership. Use promotion codes 15OFF & 30OFF respectively.
    Last edited by whereismygc; 12-11-2012 at 12:52 PM.

  24. #24
    Whereismygc forecast updated based on NVC demand data. If interested please visit www.whereismygc.com

  25. #25
    Whereismygc forecast updated based on DoS 2012 visa usage statistics with possible 2013 quota of 159K. Accordingly all graphs charts etc will be updated. If interested please visit www.whereismygc.com

    p.s. - In another 2-3 days whereismygc will also be updated with latest demand by country and category for more accurate prediction.

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