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Thread: EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

  1. #1

    Lightbulb EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

    SUMMARY

    Pls find below the last EB2IC forecast preserved, actual Sep 2011 movement and analysis about the difference.

    In summary, as can be seen below our model showed movement upto Jul 2007 for EB2IC. Trackitt model (in FACTS and DATA Section) showed pretty much the same as late as Jul 2011. However dates didn't move in September. While this was greatly disappointing, in retrospect, we are quite happy for the movement we saw throughout the year for EB2IC. All in all - we were pretty close to our very original prediction which was Mar-Apr 2007 - which yielded about ~30-32K SOFAD.

    Reason Why Dates Moved So Well Until August Bulletin
    EB1 turned into a "white swan" this year. Throughout year, it was running at ~50% of annual quota and prior year demand. This was made possible because of the strict scrutiny owing to Kazarian memo. ROW EB2 had some effect of this but overall was close to 80-90% of prior year usage. So the real driver was EB1.
    Looking at this DoS felt comfortable to move dates and provide SOFAD to EB2IC from May itself.

    Reason Why They Didn't Move So Well in September Bulletin
    The expectation was EB1 would yield 16-20K, EB2ROWMP - 7-8K, & EB5 - 7-8K. Coupled with EB2IC regular quota of 5.6K this would've meant backlog clearing all teh way through July. But as can be seen EB1 was the key.
    In early August, we saw trackitt trending upward quite fast. But 5 days data is hardly worth making any trend projections. So we didnt factor it in. Then came the bulletin with disappointing news. It was immediately clear that EB1 usage has jumped considerably and so has ROW EB2. There is not a whole lot visibility - but rumour has it , USCIS had 12K EB1 EB2ROW extra cases ready to be approved in just 2 months. Adding the 7-9K usual monthly rate that they used throughout the month, gives just about 19-20K which is exactly how much was left in total for EB category.

    Bottomline, EB1 to a large extent and EB2ROW to a lesser extent stopped any further movement.

    What it Means for 2012

    The non-movement was certainly disappointing for a lot of IC folks waiting to file 485 since 2007!!! Imagine that! And this has delayed their wait by 6-9 months.

    The 12K "surprise" cases approved this year does mean less backlog for EB1 EB2ROW going into next year and a decent SOFAD next year. We will discuss more dligently on a separate 2012 thread, how ever for now the worst estimates for 2012 SOFAD are 18K minimum and between 20-30K realistic. So may be 24-25K is a realistic number.

    In terms of dates, this would mean the dates moving by about 9-12 months within 1 Year from now. But given the demand cliff that exists in August 2007, USCIS must have at least 6-9 months to process all those 485 cases and as a result in 2012, we don't think that we have to wait until May or June to see dates move in a signficant manner. More than likely we MUST see a movement by Mar 2012.

    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Last Forecast

    Based on the Sep 2011 Visa bulletin O information about EB1 as well as latest trackitt data from Q1/Q2, this is the current status and predictions for EB2.

    In summary we think that EB2IC will receive total 36K SOFAD of which ~30K will go towards backlog reduction. Approx. 6K will be used towards - a) porting 4K b) PWMB 0K c) Counselar Processing 2K.

    This would mean EB2IC dates moving into first week of Jul 2007 in September Bulletin. Movement beyond this date is possible but possibly would involve retrogression couple of months down the line.

    FACTS AND DATA SECTION
    Those wanting to do their own analysis, you can find a treasure of data in FACTS and DATA section. http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/forumd...FACTS-AND-DATA

    Acronyms
    SOFAD - Spillover Fall Across and Down
    SO - Spillover
    FA - Fall Across
    FD - Fall Down
    CD - Cutoff Date
    PD - Priority Date
    PD<CD (Priority Date within Cut Off Date)
    CP - Consular Processing
    PWMB - People w PD prior to July 07 who missed boat (i.e. 2007 July 485 Boat).
    PWBA - People Waiting for Boat to arrive (i.e. waiting to file 485)
    SYA - Same year approvals
    R485 - ROW 485 filings in EB2
    SFM - Sustainable Forward Movement
    BTM - Big Temporary Movement
    UFM - Unsustainable Forward Movement
    TBM - Temporary Backward Movement

    Summary - EB2 IS GOING TO See 36K SOFAD of which 30K will be utilized towards backlog reduction and EB2IC dates will move into July 2007.

    The big drivers behind this are as follows:

    1) USCIS processing times for 485 cases filed in 2011 are lagging behind. So only 37-50% of 2011 new demand will translate into visa demand. VO has already confirmed 44% decline in EB1 visa demand.
    2) EB2-ROW 20% reduction in "NEW" demand. (confirmed by trackitt data YoY).

    The 2010 Approvals saw EB1 and EB2-ROW new demand (i.e. complete new 485 applications) at an unprecedented levels. EB1 received 46K new applications. EB2-ROW-MP received 31K.

    In 2011 however both EB1 seem to be receiving 56% NEW demand. EB2-ROW new demand is resuming its natural rate (after 2010 PERM surge). Current approval rates indicate EB2 ROW new demand could be upto 20% lower compared to last year. Also same year approvals hover around 70% for EB1 as well as EB2-ROW even if the categories are current. So going into 2011 these two factors will dominate which way SOFAD goes:

    Factor 1 - EB1 & EB2-ROW 485 filings compared to 2010 (R485). Approx. at 100%
    Factor 2 - EB1 & EB2 same year approvals (SYA). Approx. at 37%

    we will call them R485 and SYA respectively.

    As we said, R485 seem to be at 100%. SYA seem to be at 37%. At those levels we can see a SOFAD upto 39K (33K towards backlog and dates reaching Jul 2007).
    Please see attached image for various scenarios.

    The headwinds for EB2IC are as follows:- Significant EB1 backlog (7K)
    - Significant EB2-ROW-MP backlog (10K)
    - Lack of FB spillover in 2011
    - EB3->2 conversions

    The tailwinds for EB2IC are:
    - Low conversion of NEW demand into visa demand for EB1 and EB2 ROW - SYA at 37%
    - SYA historically at 70% which leads to within category spillover.
    - EB5 may continue to provide 5-8K SOFAD
    - Possible rejections of 140s / 485s
    - Much of the PWMBs won't translate into visa demand in FY 2011.

    The explanation of terms:1. Quota - Is the alloted quota of 140000 designated empl. visas for each category and country.
    2. Backlog 485 - Is the inventory that includes 485. It doesn't include 33% PWMBs (between Jan-Jul 2007) and 3% portings (i.e. 4-5K per year).
    3. 2011 New Demand - Is the additional 485 applications for 2011. As of now same demand as 2010 is used.
    4. 2011 SOFAD - Shows in green how much surplus each category will provide. If -ve it shows the backlog in that category at the end of Sep 2011.
    5. FA recvd - Fall Across Visas Received Within A Category
    6. FA Given - Fall Across Visas Remaining After Demand Within Category is Fulfilled
    7. FD recvd - Fall Up Down Visas Received From Another Category
    8. Spare Visas - These are the total spare visas in a category that can be used for countries that have hit their limits.
    9. IC Quota - India china quota
    10 . IC consumption - This is the traditional SOFAD or Total IC consumption which goes towards clearing IC backlog (esp EB2).
    8. FD given - Fall Up Down Visas Remaining After Demand Within Category is Fulfilled

    Assumptions:
    0. VB provided correct info in terms of 50% reduction in eB1 demand.
    1. USCIS Published data of current 485 backlog (dated 1st Oct 2010) was correct and includes all Emp based cases including dependents.
    2. 2011 NVC inventory will be similar to 2010 NVC inventory. (since the latest we have is from last year).
    3. USCIS doesn't waste any visas during 2011.
    4. There is NO family spillover of visas from year 2010 into year 2011.
    5. 30% people w PDs bet Jan-Jul 2007 missed the 2007 boat. (calculated from trackitt data) (not included but doesn't matter until after dates move into Jan 2007)
    6. 3-4K EB3 convert to EB2 in 2011.
    7. EB1 demand stays same as last year and EB1 clears its backlog
    8. R485 at 100%
    9. SYA at 37-50%
    9. CP allocation factored in demand. So SOFAD is free of CP. From EB2 perspective assumed minimal even otherwise.


    Visa Bulletin Analysis

    VB confirms the trend of large SOFAD this year based on early movement of dates. The USCIS processing times also confirm this trend. So does trackitt data.

    Future Date Movements

    In all likelihood, VB will move the dates all the way to Jul 2007 for EB2IC in the August Bulletin itself to allow at least some of the PWMBs to receive GC this year itself. Then in September or October they may move the dates sufficiently forward to take in large intake. I would imagine dates moving into mid 2008 briefly and then retrogressing.

    EB3 Silver Lining
    Because of the unusual slowdown in EB1 / EB2 ROW processing, EB2IC will be almost completely cleared. In the best case scenario some SOFAD will actual go to EB3 (2-3K). Coupled with portings, the EB3I dates will move by almost 8K equivalent of backlog i.e. probably between Dec 02 - Jan 2003. The probability of this happening is 30%.

    p.s. there is ambiguity about if there is EB3 spillover whether it will go to EB3IC or EB3ROW.


    More details in POST #3'

    NOTE: Some of you are not able to see the image below in an embedded manner. You can download the image by right-clicking on it. But unfortunately if you want to see it embedded then you need to login. This functionality is off-the-shelf and I don't know how to configure it. If somebody knows how to fix this problem pls let me know.
    Attached Images Attached Images
    Last edited by qesehmk; 08-16-2011 at 07:32 AM. Reason: Made FINAL Update to Header for year 2011

  2. #2
    Have enjoyed your posts at **. Happy to be the first one here. Thanks for your efforts.

  3. #3
    Thank you. It has been a joyous and unexpected ride! Look forward to continue these discussions.

    Quote Originally Posted by arorasa View Post
    Have enjoyed your posts at **. Happy to be the first one here. Thanks for your efforts.
    Visa usage at full demand (partial credit to Spec) & why the dates are moving the way they are
    This is something that Spec tossed out first and then I have modified it.

    If there were sufficient demand across board then by law USCIS has to allocate 27% each Quarter and 1/3 or remaining in each month. When the demand is not sufficient - theoretically DoS is supposed to issue visas to retrogressed countries. However we all know that doesn;t happen for some reason. This is an excellent area to do advocacy for those who have the muscle and the money. But that is not the main point I am going to make. The main point is - This year like last visa office chose to allocate spillover into Q4.

    So while the usage at 7th month was 52, At full year rate it would've been 89K. Add 10K CP to that. So that gives us 40K SOFAD roughly. Visa office chose to allocate some of the sofad early on in Jun and Jul. This month in July when teh June numbers came in .... the lack of demand in non-retro countries was sufficiently established and so VO could easily allocate the quota upto July for retro countries in August. And that's exactly what he has done. This way he has taken care of retro countries while keeping 2 months normal quota for August as well as September should there be any surge in non-retro countries.

    Realistically this presents a very good opportunity to have anywhere between 4-10K additional SOFAD to EB2IC thus taking the dates in Sep to 1 Jul to beyond Mid August.


    September Visa Bulletin Leftover
    Our chinese friends apparently have some reasonably credible information that they received from the visa office. In summary, 52K visas were used through April 30. 121K seem to have been allocated through August 31st. Leaving 19K for September 2011.

    There is quite confusion abouit whether this 19K is only for september or august as well. After a lot of discussions here is what I feel (and spec agrees).
    121K is meant for all Jul YTD demand + all EB2IC demand that will be fulfilled through August. 19K will be used towards everybody other than EB2IC. Its quite possible that some of the 19K will still go unused and be made available to EB2IC, Our best estimation is that ata minimum that number will be 4K upto 10K. So the september movement will be from last week of June upto mid August.



    Here is trackitt confirmation of how much is left for September.

    Oct - Apr Total EB Approvals = 925
    May - Jul 15 i.e. Today Total EB Approvals = 828
    Jul 2011 Approvals As of 15 July = 158
    Second half of July possible approvals = 158 MAX (based on June trend of 30% approvals in second half and 70% in first half).

    if 925 = 52K, then 828 = 47K. Assuming remaing July yields another 158 approvals = 9K.

    Thus trackitt approximation of total allocated through end of July = 108K.

    That leaves 13K for August spillover + normal allocation and 19K for September.

    Posted by Spec

    How Much Spillover is Required In September 2011 to Move to a Particular Cut Off Date?

    This should only be considered as a ready reckoner.

    It is a table that shows how much spillover is required in September to reach a particular Cut Off Date (CUD).

    It is based purely on the numbers in the USCIS Inventory as at June 2011.

    It does not include any Porting or PWMB numbers that might be required, nor the small number of CP cases, but gives a rough idea of where the CUD might move to for a given spillover.

    -- CUD -- -- China -- India -- Total --- Diff
    22-Apr-07 ---- 143 ---- 329 ---- 472 ---- 472
    01-May-07 ---- 307 ---- 705 -- 1,012 ---- 540
    08-May-07 ---- 424 ---- 946 -- 1,370 ---- 358
    15-May-07 ---- 541 -- 1,187 -- 1,728 ---- 358
    22-May-07 ---- 658 -- 1,429 -- 2,087 ---- 359
    01-Jun-07 ---- 826 -- 1,774 -- 2,600 ---- 513
    08-Jun-07 ---- 953 -- 2,071 -- 3,024 ---- 424
    15-Jun-07 -- 1,180 -- 2,368 -- 3,448 ---- 424
    22-Jun-07 -- 1,207 -- 2,665 -- 3,872 ---- 424
    01-Jul-07 -- 1,371 -- 3,048 -- 4,419 ---- 547
    08-Jul-07 -- 1,758 -- 3,409 -- 5,167 ---- 748
    15-Jul-07 -- 2,146 -- 3,771 -- 5,917 ---- 750
    22-Jul-07 -- 2,534 -- 4,132 -- 6,666 ---- 749
    01-Aug-07 -- 3,089 -- 4,649 -- 7,738 -- 1,072
    08-Aug-07 -- 3,167 -- 4,767 -- 7,934 ---- 196
    15-Aug-07 -- 3,257 -- 4,902 -- 8,159 ---- 225

    I hope you find it useful, since various numbers have been suggested for spillover in September.
    Last edited by qesehmk; 08-16-2011 at 07:30 AM. Reason: Moved over a lot of material into this post.

  4. #4
    Q,

    I wanted say thanks for setting this up as independent from any other Immigration Site. Where it ended up, meant that many people could no longer view it.

    Quote Originally Posted by qesehmk View Post
    CURRENT STATUS
    The 485 inventory is not out. So it is hard to say how much SOFAD occured last year. However looking at TRACKITT data it looks like the number was 24.4K.
    I agree that looks to be the figure, based on Trackitt data.

    What's The FUTURE?
    We still have 42K EB2 pending as of now. If history is any precedent, then 24K SOFAD last year would mean in year 10-11 EB2 will be cleared only through Dec 06. This is quite disheartening. However, we should predict better when new inventory is published.
    I have calculated using a different model to yourself, but have also obtained the same result. However, the level of EB3-EB2 porting makes a difference to this.

    As you can see the model tells us much bigger SOFAD - about 48K. 25K is from EB1-4-5 and 23K from EB2-ROW. The 23K from ROW and 6K from EB5 is reasonable one. But in 09-10 we saw that EB1 is a sink hole. And so we think that about 24K backlog - same as last year - is a reasonable bet going forward. Why we didn't see FALL-DOWN in 09-10 - we do not know why. This question can possibly only be answered after 485 inventory is published.
    I am not sure I would agree that 23K from ROW is reasonable.

    Trackitt data suggests that EB2-ROW approvals in FY2010 were c.24.5K. That would imply spill across of c.6.5K.

    EB2-M and EB2-P historically only use about 3K of the 6K they could use, so that would give spill across to EB2-C & EB2-I of a further 3K for 9.5K total.

    Forecasting categories that are Current is extremely difficult (EB1 and EB2 other than China & India).

    The Inventory reports are useless, since most approved cases are never shown in them. Thus we are left with approval data from sources outside DOS and USCIS, which essentially means Trackitt.

    But that has problems. If the percentage of cases on Trackitt remains fairly constant then it works. If there is a change to the percentage, then the figures become distorted.

    EB1 is a good example of this. There are relatively few EB1 cases on Trackitt, so a small change in the numbers input can make a big difference.

    Using the FY2009 % figure leads one to believe that there were far fewer EB1 approvals in FY2010 compared to FY2009. This is particularly evident in EB1C.

    However, given the EB1C bashing that seems to have been popular, I wouldn't be surprised if those people have not entered their details, which will distort the prediction.

    To show the fluctuation, the % of Trackitt approved cases to Actual approvals for EB1 was:

    FY2008 - 0.677892%
    FY2009 - 1.2372493%

    Until the Statistical Visa Reports for FY are published, it is impossible to tell what the situation actually was in FY2010, but historical data suggests EB1 approvals will be around 40K. Unless the FY2010 Report shows considerable deviation, I would expect that to continue in FY2011 as well.

    Possibly and probably you may not agree with the points I have made. That's fine. They are not meant as criticism, but rather discussion on the (rather difficult) subject and offer a different viewpoint. I'm sure you will read them as such. I'm sure the "usual suspects" such as Teddy will soon add their own comments.

    Finally, I want to wish you all the best for the coming year, both for this venture and your Immigration journey.

  5. #5
    Have gained a lot from your analysis. Thanks Q

  6. #6
    Q,
    nice to see you on your own forum.

  7. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by Spectator View Post

    I am not sure I would agree that 23K from ROW is reasonable.

    Trackitt data suggests that EB2-ROW approvals in FY2010 were c.24.5K. That would imply spill across of c.6.5K.

    EB2-M and EB2-P historically only use about 3K of the 6K they could use, so that would give spill across to EB2-C & EB2-I of a further 3K for 9.5K total.
    This is a short excerpt from the minutes of recent AILA DC Chapter meeting with Charles Oppenheim:

    "Under AC21, EB‐1 China/India cases are not currently subject to the per country quota, because of the cross‐over in that category of otherwise unused numbers from other countries. This has allowed 5,000‐ 6000 visa numbers to be allocated to India and China EB‐1 when approximately 2,800 would be the normal limit. The remaining unused EB‐1 numbers "fall down" into the EB‐2 categories. That has allowed approximately 20,000 EB‐2 numbers for India and nearly 6,500 for China. The availability of these numbers "fall across" strictly in priority date order, not by country".

    So, I don't agree with your disagreement with Q on the Spill over.
    Last edited by vedu; 10-06-2010 at 10:03 PM.

  8. #8
    Hello Q,

    It really helped me reading your posts.. Joining here

  9. #9
    Spec, independence helps because we are not here to compete with anybody. So lets freely discuss all sources including ** :-)

    Yes EB3->2 porting is a bit tricky but i am quite confident that the number is not more than 4-5K. 485 inventory will confirm.

    I agree that ROW spillover may be different. But based on available labor data and the condition of the economy I thought that was the best. But again the 485 inventory will tell us where we overestimated.

    Forecasting categories that are current is actually easier. All you have to do is take last year demand and inflate with a reasonable % and use for next year. So may be assume a 20% extra margin. This is especially true for EB1. EB2 is a bit different story because for EB2 its possible that there was huge PERM build up which was subsequently released thereby creating swings in YoY data.

    Inventory reports are inaccurate but not entirely useless. Without them I would be forecasting pretty much nothing !! However you are right that they are esp less useful for EB3.

    You are absolutely right about trackitt. So we have to use trackitt with a bit intelligence. Can't make generalized ratios and use indiscriminately.

    Thanks very much for thoughtful comments. Disagreement is good .... that is where learning comes from :-)

    Quote Originally Posted by Spectator View Post
    Q,

    I wanted say thanks for setting this up as independent from any other Immigration Site. Where it ended up, meant that many people could no longer view it.

    I have calculated using a different model to yourself, but have also obtained the same result. However, the level of EB3-EB2 porting makes a difference to this.

    I am not sure I would agree that 23K from ROW is reasonable.

    Forecasting categories that are Current is extremely difficult (EB1 and EB2 other than China & India).

    The Inventory reports are useless, since most approved cases are never shown in them. Thus we are left with approval data from sources outside DOS and USCIS, which essentially means Trackitt.

    But that has problems. If the percentage of cases on Trackitt remains fairly constant then it works. If there is a change to the percentage, then the figures become distorted.

    EB1 is a good example of this. There are relatively few EB1 cases on Trackitt, so a small change in the numbers input can make a big difference.

    Using the FY2009 % figure leads one to believe that there were far fewer EB1 approvals in FY2010 compared to FY2009. This is particularly evident in EB1C.

    However, given the EB1C bashing that seems to have been popular, I wouldn't be surprised if those people have not entered their details, which will distort the prediction.

    To show the fluctuation, the % of Trackitt approved cases to Actual approvals for EB1 was:

    FY2008 - 0.677892%
    FY2009 - 1.2372493%

    Until the Statistical Visa Reports for FY are published, it is impossible to tell what the situation actually was in FY2010, but historical data suggests EB1 approvals will be around 40K. Unless the FY2010 Report shows considerable deviation, I would expect that to continue in FY2011 as well.

    Possibly and probably you may not agree with the points I have made. That's fine. They are not meant as criticism, but rather discussion on the (rather difficult) subject and offer a different viewpoint. I'm sure you will read them as such. I'm sure the "usual suspects" such as Teddy will soon add their own comments.

    Finally, I want to wish you all the best for the coming year, both for this venture and your Immigration journey.

  10. #10
    Quote Originally Posted by vedu View Post
    This is a short excerpt from the minutes of recent AILA DC Chapter meeting with Charles Oppenheim:

    "Under AC21, EB‐1 China/India cases are not currently subject to the per country quota, because of the cross‐over in that category of otherwise unused numbers from other countries. This has allowed 5,000‐ 6000 visa numbers to be allocated to India and China EB‐1 when approximately 2,800 would be the normal limit. The remaining unused EB‐1 numbers "fall down" into the EB‐2 categories. That has allowed approximately 20,000 EB‐2 numbers for India and nearly 6,500 for China. The availability of these numbers "fall across" strictly in priority date order, not by country".

    So, I don't agree with your disagreement with Q on the Spill over.
    Vedu you made my day with this information. If true this confirms my contention that 24.5K SOFAD occured excluding conversions. (of course in the ball park range)!

    As per what Spec is saying .... he could still be true. Charles statement says that in EB1 India and China received more than usual because of fall-across. Not only that EB2 received fall down. It also says because of SOFAD EB2I and EB2C received 20K and 6.5K respectively. However what it doesn't tell is how much of 20K is because of fall-down vs fall-across.

    In other words its possible that EB2 fall across was minimal and most of the 20K was fall down. However in my opinion fall-across is easier to come by than FD.



    baba2, kranti, gcq - welcome all. Feels really good after all the madness today.

    Quote Originally Posted by baba2s View Post
    Hello Q,

    It really helped me reading your posts.. Joining here
    Quote Originally Posted by kranthi View Post
    Have gained a lot from your analysis. Thanks Q
    Quote Originally Posted by gcq View Post
    Q,
    nice to see you on your own forum.

  11. #11

    EB2 Projection For Future Years 2011 and 2012

    Ind Chn Ind + chn PD Porting
    / Offset PWMB Row Total Cumulative
    May-06 1398 580 1978 500 50 2528 2528
    Jun-06 1677 754 2431 500 50 2981 5509
    Jul-06 1538 641 2179 500 50 2729 8238
    Aug-06 1662 722 2384 500 50 2934 11172
    Sep-06 1702 807 2509 500 50 3059 14231
    Oct-06 1729 757 2486 500 50 3036 17267
    Nov-06 1746 690 2436 500 50 2986 20253
    Dec-06 1887 803 2690 500 50 3240 23493
    Jan-07 1528 699 2227 500 50 2777 26270
    Feb-07 1447 620 2067 500 50 2617 28887
    Mar-07 1377 728 2105 500 50 2655 31542
    Apr-07 1394 659 2053 500 50 2603 34145
    May-07 1043 546 1589 500 500 2589 36734
    Jun-07 1296 288 1584 500 1000 3084 39818
    Jul-07 1747 2007 3754 500 2000 6254 46072
    Aug-07 2000 500 2500 500 0 3000 49072
    Sep-07 2000 500 2500 500 0 3000 52072
    Oct-07 2000 500 2500 500 0 3000 55072
    Nov-07 2000 500 2500 500 0 3000 58072
    Dec-07 2000 500 2500 500 0 3000 61072


    Guys the DOS annual report will take a while to come out and looks like the new inventory is also not available. So what I did is plotted the numbers for India & China from the May inventory. The third column is India + China, after Jul 2007 I assume that India is 2000 PM and china is 500 PM. The total demand as per Oct demand data was 34K the inventory total is ~ 30K so the inventory is lighter. To overcome this and assuming PD porting will happen on a constant basis I have a addition of 500 every month. The next column is the PWMB who are really primarily concentrated in May, Jun and Jul.

    Now to get to the date movement you can think of the SOFAD value that you think will happen this year and match it up with the cumulative month to get the year-month. Some of us (very few) believe that SOFAD was 30K with this trend holding for the next 2 years all backlog till Dec 2007 will be cleared by Sep 2012 and the date by Sep 2011 will hover in the Feb Ė March 2007 range. Some have suggested that SOFAD was only 17k you can see that with this we maybe stuck In Oct 2006 itself. A lot of people believe that SOFAD was 20-25K with this we may just barely scrape 2006. Friends you can now derive your conclusions for the coming years. All the best. The biggest news that we all await is regarding FB spillover, there are really mixed indications about it some say it is going to be very high while some say that that there maybe no FB spillover. Every 10K of FB gives ~6.5K of SOFAD assuming it comes from EB1, EB2 & EB5.

  12. #12

    2010 SOFAD / Spillover Calculation

    Folks and friends I did some research on Trackitt to find out what exactly happened. I don't know of any other source where we can make this exact analysis. I believe now that both EB1and EB2 gave us SOFAD but both individually were lesser than expected. Please review and tear apart.

    Approvals 2009

    EB1-A : 98
    EB1-B : 191
    EB1-C : 267
    EB1 Total - 556
    EB2-ROW - 719

    Approvals 2010

    EB1-A : 100
    EB1-B : 159
    EB1-C : 123
    EB1 Total - 382
    EB2-ROW - 507

    Percentage reduction in EB1 = 31.3%
    Percentage reduction in EB2 ROW = 29.4%

    Now we know that both EB1 and EB2 ROW consumed their own individual quota last year. Letís now try and calculate the SOFAD they would have provided in 2010.

    Assuming EB2 ROW to be (42K -6K for I/C) the SOFAD is 36K * 31.3% = 11268
    Assuming EB1 to be 42K the SOFAD is 12348
    India + China individual quota = 6K
    Assuming EB5 Fall down = 6K

    Total SOFAD is approximately 35K (11K + 12K + 6K + 6K).

    For margin of error lets put it in the range 30-35K. Also to many of us EB1-C is a great concern but this is the component of EB1 that declined the most. Based on this calculation SOFAD was certainly 30K. So what could have happened I believe the most likely answer is PD porting, especially Sep 2010 saw a lot of porting approvals.

  13. #13
    Teddy

    Excellent pieces on first entry on this forum!! Sixer mara.

    Overall I agree w your inventory. I have a few differences but very minor. If you want to improve, you may want to include 4K for prior-to-may-06 and 6K for CP inventory.

    Quote Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu View Post

    Guys the DOS annual report will take a while to come out and looks like the new inventory is also not available. So what I did is plotted the numbers for India & China from the May inventory. The third column is India + China, after Jul 2007 I assume that India is 2000 PM and china is 500 PM. The total demand as per Oct demand data was 34K the inventory total is ~ 30K so the inventory is lighter. To overcome this and assuming PD porting will happen on a constant basis I have a addition of 500 every month. The next column is the PWMB who are really primarily concentrated in May, Jun and Jul.
    On second one, did you add 6.5K FB which was not there in 2009? Other than that you are spot on.


    So now the million dollar question is - if all of this os true why didn't dates move to take care of 30K plus quota? The answer is WE DO NOT KNOW. The guess is that probably there were a bit more conversions than we thought, a bit more ROW demand than we thought and most importantly USCIS may have wasted some visas.


    Quote Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu View Post
    Folks and friends I did some research on Trackitt to find out what exactly happened. I don't know of any other source where we can make this exact analysis. I believe now that both EB1and EB2 gave us SOFAD but both individually were lesser than expected. Please review and tear apart.
    Percentage reduction in EB1 = 31.3%
    Percentage reduction in EB2 ROW = 29.4%

    Now we know that both EB1 and EB2 ROW consumed their own individual quota last year. Let’s now try and calculate the SOFAD they would have provided in 2010.

    Total SOFAD is approximately 35K (11K + 12K + 6K + 6K).

  14. #14

    Note on 2010 SOFAD

    Friends just read the following the SOFAD was 26.5K last year.

    * Under AC21, EB‐1 China/India cases are not currently subject to the per country quota, because of the cross‐over in that category of otherwise unused numbers from other countries. This has allowed 5,000‐ 6000 visa numbers to be allocated to India and China EB‐1 when approximately 2,800 would be the normal limit. The remaining unused EB‐1 numbers "fall down" into the EB‐2 categories. That has allowed approximately 20,000 EB‐2 numbers for India and nearly 6,500 for China. The availability of these numbers "fall across" strictly in priority date order, not by country.

  15. #15
    Quote Originally Posted by qesehmk View Post
    Teddy
    Thanks, My responses inline
    Excellent pieces on first entry on this forum!! Sixer mara.

    Overall I agree w your inventory. I have a few differences but very minor. If you want to improve, you may want to include 4K for prior-to-may-06 and 6K for CP inventory.

    Q I believe that the 4K pre May 2006 maybe high, if you look at Trackitt just like last year October is having a good number of approvals, so possibly cap number was assigned in September itself, I believe that this number maybe smaller maybe around 1K. I have a monthly factor of 500 which should have the following a) New PD Porting b) Entities not in Demand data which is 34K as opposed to 30K. I have put in this factor as 500 probably this may need to be increased if not sufficient.


    On second one, did you add 6.5K FB which was not there in 2009? Other than that you are spot on.

    In 2009 as we know EB1 just overshot its cap marginally and EB2 ROW was current but did not give anything. So I assumed the consumption equal to the cap. The figures that Iam trying to give out are actually a reduction in consumption when comparing 2009 and 2010, 2010 Cap is FB loaded so I multiplied the reduction factors with the actual cap for the categories.


    So now the million dollar question is - if all of this os true why didn't dates move to take care of 30K plus quota? The answer is WE DO NOT KNOW. The guess is that probably there were a bit more conversions than we thought, a bit more ROW demand than we thought and most importantly USCIS may have wasted some visas.
    I just posted a report that indicates total SOFAD is 26.5K. Itís lower than expected and 6.5K is the FB contribution. Now the big news will be how much FB this year.

  16. #16

    Lightbulb

    Quote Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu View Post
    I just posted a report that indicates total SOFAD is 26.5K. Itís lower than expected and 6.5K is the FB contribution. Now the big news will be how much FB this year.
    Haven't read that report in detail yet. But going back to your trackitt approach, it makes more sense to calculate reduction without FB numbers and tehn simply add the whole FB number to that number.

  17. #17
    Quote Originally Posted by qesehmk View Post
    Haven't read that report in detail yet. But going back to your trackitt approach, it makes more sense to calculate reduction without FB numbers and tehn simply add the whole FB number to that number.
    Lets go step-wise.
    - The percentage reduction is calculated on the basis of Trackitt consumption.
    - Both EB1 & EB2 ROW did not use their cap fully this though an assumption is highly likely.
    - Now last years consumption has been assumed to be last years cap itself for these categories for approximation sake.
    - This years cap is higher courtesy FB but when we calculate the SOFAD this years CAP never gets involved in any multiplication or division but SOFAD = (This Years CAP) - Reduced consumption calculated based on percentage reduction.
    - So really if you apply FB spillover numbers earlier or later will not make a difference to the final value.
    Unfortunately that hard fact is that this approach yielded 35K however the actual figure is 26.5K, I believe that the real reason is that Trackitt data is good for EB2 ROW, however looks like for EB1 the Trackitt representation came down in 2010 in proportionate terms. Also the report indicates higher usage of Eb1 for both India and China which is fairly natural as for India and China the way out is EB1.

  18. #18
    Quote Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu View Post
    Lets go step-wise.
    - This years cap is higher courtesy FB but when we calculate the SOFAD this years CAP never gets involved in any multiplication or division but SOFAD = (This Years CAP) - Reduced consumption calculated based on percentage reduction.
    - So really if you apply FB spillover numbers earlier or later will not make a difference to the final value.
    Granted 26.5K may be the final SOFAD. But you never know w USCIS. Also it doesn't hurt to cross check thought process. So here I go...

    FB contributed approx 3K to EB1 and 2 in 2010. Lets assume for sake of simplicity reduction is 33%. Lets assume category was 39K last year and 42K this year owing to FB spillover. And lets concentrate only on one category. There is no fall-down here.

    SOFAD per your definition will yield 14K(=42K-42K*(1-33%)). Per my definition will yield 16K (=39K*33%+3K). In other words all FB spillover this year contributes to SOFAD if YoY consumption is flat or -ve.

    Going back to the question "what if we already know that SOFAD is 26.5K" - then we should ask ourselves is the difference because trackitt data is not quite good or is it because something else? As I keep saying .. we will know better only when 485 inventory comes out :-)

  19. #19
    I am enjoying the discussion and the freedom to do so, which I didn't feel previously.

    As Q said my figures are in line with other people's.

    I too used analysis of Trackitt data to arrive at my ROW prediction. I only look at Primary applicants and have corrected them for some Country of Chargeability issues.

    In FY2008 there were 608 Trackitt approvals for EB2-ROW and EB2-NIW-ROW, which translated into 29,884 EB2-ROW approvals in the Visa Report. That is a Trackitt % of 2.0345335

    In FY2009 there were 660 Trackitt approvals for EB2-ROW and EB2-NIW-ROW, which translated into 30,093 EB2-ROW approvals in the Visa Report. That is a Trackitt % of 2.1932011

    The Trackitt % has remained reasonably constant, so I have used the FY2009 figure against Trackitt approvals for FY2010.

    In FY2010 there were 537 Trackitt approvals for EB2-ROW and EB2-NIW-ROW, which translated into a possible 24,485 ROW approvals.

    That gives spill across of 6.5k. Additionally, I added a further 3K for historic under utilization by EB2-M and EB2-P.

    The same confidence in the Trackitt % doesn't hold for EB1 and the figure of 28,369 produced by the 2009 % figure for FY2010 approvals looks ridiculously low by historic standards.

    I had assumed 40K approvals, giving fall down of 3K.

    With EB5 giving a fall down of 6K and the 6K which China and India already have, this gives available visas (SOFAD) for EB2 China and India of 6.5+3+3+6+6 = 24.5K

    If Charles Oppenheim is suggesting 26.5 K, then that is still the same ball park and I would increase the EB1 spill down by 2K.

    38K for EB1 seems entirely reasonable.

    Of course, as everyone has said, we will only know for sure when the Visa Report is published in Jan/Feb 2011.

    I will reset my forecast at that point. At present, a change from SOFAD of 24.5K to 26.5K and a reduction in porting from Teddy's 6K to Q's 4.5K only moves it from the beginning of December 2006 to Mid January 2007.

    Like everyone, I am looking forward to the new USCIS Inventory for updated figures.
    Last edited by Spectator; 10-07-2010 at 04:06 PM. Reason: typos

  20. #20
    Quote Originally Posted by qesehmk View Post
    Granted 26.5K may be the final SOFAD. But you never know w USCIS. Also it doesn't hurt to cross check thought process. So here I go...

    FB contributed approx 3K to EB1 and 2 in 2010. Lets assume for sake of simplicity reduction is 33%. Lets assume category was 39K last year and 42K this year owing to FB spillover. And lets concentrate only on one category. There is no fall-down here.

    SOFAD per your definition will yield 14K(=42K-42K*(1-33%)). Per my definition will yield 16K (=39K*33%+3K). In other words all FB spillover this year contributes to SOFAD if YoY consumption is flat or -ve.

    Going back to the question "what if we already know that SOFAD is 26.5K" - then we should ask ourselves is the difference because trackitt data is not quite good or is it because something else? As I keep saying .. we will know better only when 485 inventory comes out :-)
    Get your point. I believe we are applying the reduction factor to different entities. Iam applying to the consumption while you are applying to the CAP.
    In my approach I approximated the Consumption in 2009 to Cap in 2009 and the applied the reduction to consumption. The example that you give is that you are applying on the CAP. The Trackitt data is really consumption data, this is where I make my assumption for 2009 that consumption = Cap (This maybe entirely wrong itself). Correct me if Iam wrong we should apply the reduction to the consumption and not the Cap assuming the consumption was not curtailed by the CAP.

    Lets wait for the 485 inventory, unfortunately no other data source provides the kind of breakup like Trackitt does for consumption. Here is a nice quick link to compare the inventory http://immigrationroad.com/. There is also a limitation of inventory subtraction due to PD porting, some people may just come and go to fast between inventories.

  21. #21
    Spec / Teddy Looks like we all are on the same page plus or minus a couple :-)

  22. #22
    Quote Originally Posted by qesehmk View Post
    Inventory reports are inaccurate but not entirely useless. Without them I would be forecasting pretty much nothing !! However you are right that they are esp less useful for EB3.
    Q,

    To clarify, my comment regarding the Inventory related only to EB1 and EB2-ROW. i.e. those categories that are Current.

    If applications and approvals were uniform throughout the year, then you could extrapolate the data and derive the full year approvals.

    That does not appear to be the case and as most EB1 and EB2 approvals are never shown as pending applications in the quarterly reports, I still believe there is little benefit in using them as a basis for forecasting these categories or category/Country combinations.

    It is entirely different for Categories/Countries in retrogression - there you are working from a fixed base and the movement can then be analysed against other known or implied information.

  23. #23
    You are right. The solution on that problem is to use inventory as historical backlog and then category by category project how much 2011 demand will be. If you look at my first post the jpg shows the assumed 2011 demand. That way you know how much SOFAD will be available.

    There is another nuance. Since USCIS publishes inventory in August and then in December .... you don't know exactly where 2009 ended at. So that creates some uncertainty in projections.

  24. #24
    Quote Originally Posted by qesehmk View Post
    You are right. The solution on that problem is to use inventory as historical backlog and then category by category project how much 2011 demand will be. If you look at my first post the jpg shows the assumed 2011 demand. That way you know how much SOFAD will be available.

    There is another nuance. Since USCIS publishes inventory in August and then in December .... you don't know exactly where 2009 ended at. So that creates some uncertainty in projections.
    Q,

    I admit to having some difficulty (understanding) with the spreadsheet shown in the jpg (as I did with last year's ones).

    To my mind, visas available to EB2-C and EB2-I would be the sum of spare visas from EB1, EB4 & EB5 Worldwide plus spare visas from EB2-ROW plus the 7% quota for EB2-C & I (6,006).

    Your spreadsheet appears to show a projected total demand for EB1 in FY2011 of 24,306 , leaving 18,594 spare visas. That appears to be extremely optimistic.

    Similarly, you appear to show a total demand for EB2-ROW (where ROW also includes Mexico & Philippines) in FY2011 for EB2-ROW of 14,116 , leaving 22,778 spare visas. Again, that seems extremely optimistic.

    Total spare visas would therefore be 18,594 (EB1) + 22,778 (EB2-ROW) + 650 (EB4) + 6,425 (EB5) = 48,447. SOFAD would therefore be 48,447 + 6,006 = 54,453.

    That does not seem realistic and is not in line with the 25K that you mention in your first post. The 25,668 highlighted in the spreadsheet only represents spare visas from EB1, EB4 and EB5 - it ignores the EB2-ROW contribution.

    If my reading of your spreadsheet is incorrect, I think you need to educate me on how to read it, as otherwise I feel totally confused.
    Last edited by Spectator; 10-08-2010 at 07:56 AM.

  25. #25
    I think you are reading it right. But please refer to the post again. I have made exactly the same point you are making. Which is that the model is showing very optimistic numbers - WHY? The answer is "We do not know, will know better when new inventory is published."!!

    The model of course could be adjusted for 2011 new demand. Also we could add a factor to take care of conversions. But none of those two things matter much because first we need to understand why in 2010 the actual SOFAD almost came to the lower end of the projections.

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