Pls find below the last EB2IC forecast preserved, actual Sep 2011 movement and analysis about the difference.
In summary, as can be seen below our model showed movement upto Jul 2007 for EB2IC. Trackitt model (in FACTS and DATA Section) showed pretty much the same as late as Jul 2011. However dates didn't move in September. While this was greatly disappointing, in retrospect, we are quite happy for the movement we saw throughout the year for EB2IC. All in all - we were pretty close to our very original prediction which was Mar-Apr 2007 - which yielded about ~30-32K SOFAD.
Reason Why Dates Moved So Well Until August Bulletin
EB1 turned into a "white swan" this year. Throughout year, it was running at ~50% of annual quota and prior year demand. This was made possible because of the strict scrutiny owing to Kazarian memo. ROW EB2 had some effect of this but overall was close to 80-90% of prior year usage. So the real driver was EB1.
Looking at this DoS felt comfortable to move dates and provide SOFAD to EB2IC from May itself.
Reason Why They Didn't Move So Well in September Bulletin
The expectation was EB1 would yield 16-20K, EB2ROWMP - 7-8K, & EB5 - 7-8K. Coupled with EB2IC regular quota of 5.6K this would've meant backlog clearing all teh way through July. But as can be seen EB1 was the key.
In early August, we saw trackitt trending upward quite fast. But 5 days data is hardly worth making any trend projections. So we didnt factor it in. Then came the bulletin with disappointing news. It was immediately clear that EB1 usage has jumped considerably and so has ROW EB2. There is not a whole lot visibility - but rumour has it , USCIS had 12K EB1 EB2ROW extra cases ready to be approved in just 2 months. Adding the 7-9K usual monthly rate that they used throughout the month, gives just about 19-20K which is exactly how much was left in total for EB category.
Bottomline, EB1 to a large extent and EB2ROW to a lesser extent stopped any further movement.
What it Means for 2012
The non-movement was certainly disappointing for a lot of IC folks waiting to file 485 since 2007!!! Imagine that! And this has delayed their wait by 6-9 months.
The 12K "surprise" cases approved this year does mean less backlog for EB1 EB2ROW going into next year and a decent SOFAD next year. We will discuss more dligently on a separate 2012 thread, how ever for now the worst estimates for 2012 SOFAD are 18K minimum and between 20-30K realistic. So may be 24-25K is a realistic number.
In terms of dates, this would mean the dates moving by about 9-12 months within 1 Year from now. But given the demand cliff that exists in August 2007, USCIS must have at least 6-9 months to process all those 485 cases and as a result in 2012, we don't think that we have to wait until May or June to see dates move in a signficant manner. More than likely we MUST see a movement by Mar 2012.
Based on the Sep 2011 Visa bulletin O information about EB1 as well as latest trackitt data from Q1/Q2, this is the current status and predictions for EB2.
In summary we think that EB2IC will receive total 36K SOFAD of which ~30K will go towards backlog reduction. Approx. 6K will be used towards - a) porting 4K b) PWMB 0K c) Counselar Processing 2K.
This would mean EB2IC dates moving into first week of Jul 2007 in September Bulletin. Movement beyond this date is possible but possibly would involve retrogression couple of months down the line.
FACTS AND DATA SECTION
Those wanting to do their own analysis, you can find a treasure of data in FACTS and DATA section. http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/forumd...FACTS-AND-DATA
SOFAD - Spillover Fall Across and Down
SO - Spillover
FA - Fall Across
FD - Fall Down
CD - Cutoff Date
PD - Priority Date
PD<CD (Priority Date within Cut Off Date)
CP - Consular Processing
PWMB - People w PD prior to July 07 who missed boat (i.e. 2007 July 485 Boat).
PWBA - People Waiting for Boat to arrive (i.e. waiting to file 485)
SYA - Same year approvals
R485 - ROW 485 filings in EB2
SFM - Sustainable Forward Movement
BTM - Big Temporary Movement
UFM - Unsustainable Forward Movement
TBM - Temporary Backward Movement
Summary - EB2 IS GOING TO See 36K SOFAD of which 30K will be utilized towards backlog reduction and EB2IC dates will move into July 2007.
The big drivers behind this are as follows:
1) USCIS processing times for 485 cases filed in 2011 are lagging behind. So only 37-50% of 2011 new demand will translate into visa demand. VO has already confirmed 44% decline in EB1 visa demand.
2) EB2-ROW 20% reduction in "NEW" demand. (confirmed by trackitt data YoY).
The 2010 Approvals saw EB1 and EB2-ROW new demand (i.e. complete new 485 applications) at an unprecedented levels. EB1 received 46K new applications. EB2-ROW-MP received 31K.
In 2011 however both EB1 seem to be receiving 56% NEW demand. EB2-ROW new demand is resuming its natural rate (after 2010 PERM surge). Current approval rates indicate EB2 ROW new demand could be upto 20% lower compared to last year. Also same year approvals hover around 70% for EB1 as well as EB2-ROW even if the categories are current. So going into 2011 these two factors will dominate which way SOFAD goes:
Factor 1 - EB1 & EB2-ROW 485 filings compared to 2010 (R485). Approx. at 100%
Factor 2 - EB1 & EB2 same year approvals (SYA). Approx. at 37%
we will call them R485 and SYA respectively.
As we said, R485 seem to be at 100%. SYA seem to be at 37%. At those levels we can see a SOFAD upto 39K (33K towards backlog and dates reaching Jul 2007).
Please see attached image for various scenarios.
The headwinds for EB2IC are as follows:- Significant EB1 backlog (7K)
- Significant EB2-ROW-MP backlog (10K)
- Lack of FB spillover in 2011
- EB3->2 conversions
The tailwinds for EB2IC are:
- Low conversion of NEW demand into visa demand for EB1 and EB2 ROW - SYA at 37%
- SYA historically at 70% which leads to within category spillover.
- EB5 may continue to provide 5-8K SOFAD
- Possible rejections of 140s / 485s
- Much of the PWMBs won't translate into visa demand in FY 2011.
The explanation of terms:1. Quota - Is the alloted quota of 140000 designated empl. visas for each category and country.
2. Backlog 485 - Is the inventory that includes 485. It doesn't include 33% PWMBs (between Jan-Jul 2007) and 3% portings (i.e. 4-5K per year).
3. 2011 New Demand - Is the additional 485 applications for 2011. As of now same demand as 2010 is used.
4. 2011 SOFAD - Shows in green how much surplus each category will provide. If -ve it shows the backlog in that category at the end of Sep 2011.
5. FA recvd - Fall Across Visas Received Within A Category
6. FA Given - Fall Across Visas Remaining After Demand Within Category is Fulfilled
7. FD recvd - Fall Up Down Visas Received From Another Category
8. Spare Visas - These are the total spare visas in a category that can be used for countries that have hit their limits.
9. IC Quota - India china quota
10 . IC consumption - This is the traditional SOFAD or Total IC consumption which goes towards clearing IC backlog (esp EB2).
8. FD given - Fall Up Down Visas Remaining After Demand Within Category is Fulfilled
0. VB provided correct info in terms of 50% reduction in eB1 demand.
1. USCIS Published data of current 485 backlog (dated 1st Oct 2010) was correct and includes all Emp based cases including dependents.
2. 2011 NVC inventory will be similar to 2010 NVC inventory. (since the latest we have is from last year).
3. USCIS doesn't waste any visas during 2011.
4. There is NO family spillover of visas from year 2010 into year 2011.
5. 30% people w PDs bet Jan-Jul 2007 missed the 2007 boat. (calculated from trackitt data) (not included but doesn't matter until after dates move into Jan 2007)
6. 3-4K EB3 convert to EB2 in 2011.
7. EB1 demand stays same as last year and EB1 clears its backlog
8. R485 at 100%
9. SYA at 37-50%
9. CP allocation factored in demand. So SOFAD is free of CP. From EB2 perspective assumed minimal even otherwise.
Visa Bulletin Analysis
VB confirms the trend of large SOFAD this year based on early movement of dates. The USCIS processing times also confirm this trend. So does trackitt data.
Future Date Movements
In all likelihood, VB will move the dates all the way to Jul 2007 for EB2IC in the August Bulletin itself to allow at least some of the PWMBs to receive GC this year itself. Then in September or October they may move the dates sufficiently forward to take in large intake. I would imagine dates moving into mid 2008 briefly and then retrogressing.
EB3 Silver Lining
Because of the unusual slowdown in EB1 / EB2 ROW processing, EB2IC will be almost completely cleared. In the best case scenario some SOFAD will actual go to EB3 (2-3K). Coupled with portings, the EB3I dates will move by almost 8K equivalent of backlog i.e. probably between Dec 02 - Jan 2003. The probability of this happening is 30%.
p.s. there is ambiguity about if there is EB3 spillover whether it will go to EB3IC or EB3ROW.
More details in POST #3'
NOTE: Some of you are not able to see the image below in an embedded manner. You can download the image by right-clicking on it. But unfortunately if you want to see it embedded then you need to login. This functionality is off-the-shelf and I don't know how to configure it. If somebody knows how to fix this problem pls let me know.