Apart from no Spillover from EB1, South Korea used more EB2 Visas in 2016 resulting in more EB2 ROW visas usage and less allocation to EB2 India.
Using South Korea PERM Application to estimate EB2 Demand:
In 2017 fiscal year’s first half, South Korea applied for 2783 vs 4188 in 2016 i.e 1405 lesser petitions.
If same trend continues for last six months of 2017 it will result in 2810 (1405*2) more EB2 visas for India than in 2016 (3930).
PS: Here I am assuming all the PERM applications are for EB2 just for estimating.
With nearly 2810 extra visas + EB2 India’s 2016 allocation of 3930, we might get 6740 Visas in 2017. 6740 visas will help in clearing inventory till Apr 2009 or better date by Sep 2017 (based on inventory data).
Using 6700 as estimate for 2018 allocation, USCIS might set Date of Filing to Oct 2009 or better date on Oct 2017.
Also, Nearly 10K lesser PERM petitions in first half of 2017….is raising my expectation for more spillover from EB2/EB3 ROW to EB2/EB3 India.
Approved PERM certifications, in 2016’s First Six Months - 53,776
Approved PERM certifications, in 2016’s Last Six Months – 59,529
Approved PERM certifications, in 2017’s First Six Months – 44,208
Note: Better dates possible if overall lesser PERM applications and South Korea’s PERM applications are divided between S Korea’s EB2 & EB3.