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Thread: EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations)

  1. #2376

    November VB

    https://travel.state.gov/content/vis...mber-2017.html

    As expected no significant movement

    EB2-India is 08OCT08, 3 weeks forward movement from Oct VB15SEP08.

  2. #2377
    USCIS not accepting Filing date for EB category in November bulletin as well? Also, CO seems to be using the same strategy of allocating visas based on FY 2017 strategy...for now (no indications of applying spillover early , especially in the EB3-I category even though EB3-ROW has been current since August).

    Given that AOS applications are taking an average of 8 months to process start to finish and may the avg. processing time may only trend upwards with interview requirements, are we not facing a risk of visa wastage in the EB3 category ? Spec and other gurus - any guidance when the filings dates may be accepted by USCIS or are we going to stick to final action dates for EB category in FY 2018. For FB category though , USCIS is accepting filing dates...

  3. #2378
    Pandit zenmaster's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by maverick23 View Post
    USCIS not accepting Filing date for EB category in November bulletin as well? Also, CO seems to be using the same strategy of allocating visas based on FY 2017 strategy...for now (no indications of applying spillover early , especially in the EB3-I category even though EB3-ROW has been current since August).

    Given that AOS applications are taking an average of 8 months to process start to finish and may the avg. processing time may only trend upwards with interview requirements, are we not facing a risk of visa wastage in the EB3 category ? Spec and other gurus - any guidance when the filings dates may be accepted by USCIS or are we going to stick to final action dates for EB category in FY 2018. For FB category though , USCIS is accepting filing dates...
    Just my 2 cents :
    Regarding the AOS interviews, i think USCIS/DOS has made it clear that they are mandatory only for persons filing 485 on or after March 6th, 2017.
    I don't see any delays due to interviews for EB2/EB3 people who have already filed 485 and waiting. Infact, interviews for ROW/EB1 candidates might impact EB2 positively overall.
    TSC - PD 5/24/09 - RFE Recd. 6/21/14

  4. #2379
    Hi Gurus,
    Please move to the appropriate thread. I am EB2 - I (PD 02/2010) who filed 485 back in 2012. I was speaking recently with couple of attornys on the Supplement - J. I got conflicting view from each of them. One of them says it is better to file now while waiting for date to become current which may happen in 2 years time. Another attorney mentions that we only have to file Supplement - J when asked by USCIS and things are still in flux with interviews and other things happening and no need to file supplement - J for now.
    Can any one here has opinion either ways?

  5. #2380
    Quote Originally Posted by incredible View Post
    Hi Gurus,
    Please move to the appropriate thread. I am EB2 - I (PD 02/2010) who filed 485 back in 2012. I was speaking recently with couple of attornys on the Supplement - J. I got conflicting view from each of them. One of them says it is better to file now while waiting for date to become current which may happen in 2 years time. Another attorney mentions that we only have to file Supplement - J when asked by USCIS and things are still in flux with interviews and other things happening and no need to file supplement - J for now.
    Can any one here has opinion either ways?
    I do not think 2/2010 PD for EB2I will be current in 2 years time. When dates become current, USCIS sends RFEs asking for Supplemental J anyway. I do not see a benefit of sending it now.

  6. #2381
    Long time reader of this forum, appreciate the work the experts here do.

    My PD is September 2012, EB-2 India. Conservatively, can I expect that to get current before 12/2022? Thanks.

  7. #2382
    Hi Guys,

    Quick Question, i got this notice Livaos ** Fee for Neopost ds-1200. does any one received it recently?

    My Priority date is Nov 2007 EB3

    Thanks in Advance!

  8. #2383
    Quote Originally Posted by EB3Iwaiting View Post
    I do not think 2/2010 PD for EB2I will be current in 2 years time. When dates become current, USCIS sends RFEs asking for Supplemental J anyway. I do not see a benefit of sending it now.
    Thanks for reply. I agree that filing Supplement J without USCIS asking for it may not be necessary.

  9. #2384
    Guru imdeng's Avatar
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    Conservatively? No. Not even close. We will not even finish 2010 by end of 2022, let alone be in 2012. Its sad.
    Quote Originally Posted by jgooner22 View Post
    Long time reader of this forum, appreciate the work the experts here do.

    My PD is September 2012, EB-2 India. Conservatively, can I expect that to get current before 12/2022? Thanks.
    EB2I NSC | PD: 08/07/2009 | Forum Glossary

  10. #2385
    Sophomore
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    2018 limit is 140k - on expected lines: https://travel.state.gov/content/dam...its_FY2018.pdf

  11. #2386
    September 2017 Consular Processing Figures

    DOS have published the figures for Sep 2017 https://travel.state.gov/content/vis...issuances.html

    Here's the analysis of the Employment Based Classes.

    Sep 2017 Consular Processing - Employment Classes

    Class --- China --- India --- Mexico --- Philippines---- ROW --- Total
    EB1 ------- 00 ------00 ------- 4 ------------ 2 ----- 130 ----- 136
    EB2 ------- 11 ------03 ------- 1 ----------- 09 ----- 019 ----- 043
    EB3 ------- 05 ----- 27 ------ 06 ---------- 215 ----- 331 ----- 584
    EB4 --------02 ----- 06 ------- 0 ------------01 ----- 051 ----- 060
    EB5 ------ 104 ----- 12 ------- 0 ----------- 0 ------ 215 ----- 331

    Total ---- 122 ----- 48 ------ 11 ---------- 227 ------ 746 ---- 1,154

    Edit: Corrected figure per subsequent conversations.

    Class --- China --- India --- Mexico --- Philippines ---- ROW --- Total
    EB1 --------- 0 ------- 0 -------- 4 ------------- 2 ---- 130 ----- 136
    EB2 -------- 11 ------- 3 -------- 1 ------------- 9 ---- 118 ----- 142
    EB3 --------- 5 ------ 27 -------- 6 ----------- 215 ---- 331 ----- 584
    EB4 --------- 2 ------- 6 -------- 0 ------------- 1 ----- 51 ------ 60
    EB5 ------- 104 ------ 12 -------- 0 ------------- 0 ---- 215 ----- 331

    Total ----- 122 ------ 48 ------- 11 ----------- 227 ---- 845 --- 1,253
    Last edited by Spectator; 10-30-2017 at 09:10 AM. Reason: Added corrected figures per conversation with redsox2009

  12. #2387
    redsox,

    Thanks for the heads up once again.

    Agree except for EB2-ROW.

    ROW --------- EB2
    Korea, South - 57
    Iran ---------- 7
    Pakistan ------ 6
    Canada -------- 5
    Ukraine ------- 5
    Bangladesh ---- 4
    Panama -------- 4
    Venezuela ----- 4
    Poland -------- 3
    Taiwan -------- 3
    Turkey -------- 3
    Uruguay ------- 3
    Germany ------- 2
    Japan --------- 2
    Jordan -------- 2
    Austria ------- 1
    Egypt --------- 1
    Jamaica ------- 1
    Morocco ------- 1
    Nepal --------- 1
    Qatar --------- 1
    Russia -------- 1
    Vietnam ------- 1

    Total ------- 118

    As an example, South Korea is made up of:

    Korea, South -- E21 -- 13 --- Professional holding advanced degree or alien of exceptional ability 203(b)(2)
    Korea, South -- E22 -- 18 --- Spouse of E21 203(d) & 203(b)(2)
    Korea, South -- E23 -- 26 --- Child of E21 203(d) & 203(b)(2)
    Last edited by Spectator; 10-29-2017 at 09:37 PM.
    Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.

  13. #2388
    [QUOTE=Spectator;58726]redsox,

    Agree except for EB2-ROW.

    Total ------- 118


    I had ROW EB2 as 118 in my chart, when entering values I forgot to change the august EB2 ROW values.

  14. #2389
    [QUOTE=redsox2009;58727]
    Quote Originally Posted by Spectator View Post
    redsox,

    Agree except for EB2-ROW.

    Total ------- 118


    I had ROW EB2 as 118 in my chart, when entering values I forgot to change the august EB2 ROW values.
    redsox,

    Easily done. Sorry for being so anal about the figures.

    I'll edit your original post to correct it so people only have to look at your post.

    Here's the cumulative figures from March 2017 (the first published) through September 2017.

    Country --------- EB1 --- EB2 --- EB3 --- EB4 --- EB5 --- Total
    China ----------- 225 ---- 74 --- 150 ----- 9 - 4,008 --- 4,466
    India ------------ 24 ---- 40 --- 120 --- 114 ---- 70 ----- 368
    Mexico ----------- 19 ----- 9 ---- 98 ----- 0 ---- 19 ----- 145
    Philippines ------- 2 --- 155 - 1,903 ---- 49 ----- 0 --- 2,109
    ROW ----------- 1,062 - 1,167 - 1,945 --- 897 - 1,004 --- 6,075

    Grand Total --- 1,332 - 1,445 - 4,216 - 1,069 - 5,101 -- 13,163
    Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.

  15. #2390
    Please share and spread this message on your social media accounts.

    Increase awareness of the issues faced by the legal immigrant community which are not talked much in media channels or by congressmen/senators in their bills.

    Most Americans are not being made aware of the real issues faced by high skilled legal immigrants.

    https://www.cato.org/blog/how-time-c...-green-cards-4

  16. #2391
    Pandit
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    Quote Originally Posted by altek001 View Post
    Please share and spread this message on your social media accounts.

    Increase awareness of the issues faced by the legal immigrant community which are not talked much in media channels or by congressmen/senators in their bills.

    Most Americans are not being made aware of the real issues faced by high skilled legal immigrants.

    https://www.cato.org/blog/how-time-c...-green-cards-4
    Employment offer was supposed to be free of discrimination and only based on merit and until the GC's for Employment based category are delinked from country based quotas and are purely on the first come fist and merit based, that the backlog will not go. And only then will all join in for unused GC recapture and other changes. Until the pain is felt by everyone we can't bring focus to this.

  17. #2392
    Well articulated problem. For the record - this blog was the very first that called quota based on nationality - "Discrimination".

    All immigrants must call a spade a spade and call this quota a "Discrimination".

    p.s. - For those who may not be aware Cato institute is a republican think tank funded by Koch brothers. But hey if they can make a case for backlogged folks that are discriminated based on country quota - then so be it.

    pps - strictly speaking the country quota is not based on nationality ... it is based on country of birth. So in that sense it is not unlawful. Discrimination based on sex age nationality and race is illegal. Country of birth doesn't figure!

    Quote Originally Posted by altek001 View Post
    Please share and spread this message on your social media accounts.

    Increase awareness of the issues faced by the legal immigrant community which are not talked much in media channels or by congressmen/senators in their bills.

    Most Americans are not being made aware of the real issues faced by high skilled legal immigrants.

    https://www.cato.org/blog/how-time-c...-green-cards-4
    The purpose of this site is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better. Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
    Please follow the Forum Rules and Guidelines as you participate or view the forum contents. | Forum Glossary

  18. #2393
    Quote Originally Posted by qesehmk View Post
    Well articulated problem. For the record - this blog was the very first that called quota based on nationality - "Discrimination".

    All immigrants must call a spade a spade and call this quota a "Discrimination".

    p.s. - For those who may not be aware Cato institute is a republican think tank funded by Koch brothers. But hey if they can make a case for backlogged folks that are discriminated based on country quota - then so be it.

    pps - strictly speaking the country quota is not based on nationality ... it is based on country of birth. So in that sense it is not unlawful. Discrimination based on sex age nationality and race is illegal. Country of birth doesn't figure!
    I think the country of birth is a worse kind of discrimination than nationality. It is akin to race, color & sex in the sense that it cannot be changed and is not in ones control. To discriminate based on any of these is going against the very basic tenet of saying " All human beings are born free and equal in dignity and rights. " and must be illegal

  19. #2394
    Disturbing news from CO about EB3I during his monthly check in:

    The cutoff date for EB3 India is not expected to advance in the December 2017 Visa Bulletin. It is currently set at October 15, 2006. No predictions are provided for employment-based, second preference (EB2) India.

    During fiscal year 2017 (FY17), which ended September 30, 2017, requests for evidence (RFEs) were issued on many pending I-485s in the EB3 India category, with the expectation that the RFEs would be responded to in a timely manner, and the cases approved in August or September 2017. Inexplicably, however, hundreds of individuals in the EB3 India category failed to respond timely. This left the U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) with no choice but to allocate these visa numbers to other visa categories, rather than their being used to reduce the tremendous backlogs in EB3 India. via murthy

    This is heartbreaking for EB3I on many levels, it is the most backlogged category. CO need not have been so conservative with moving dates and so late in issuing RFE's.

  20. #2395
    Quote Originally Posted by geniusmag View Post
    I think the country of birth is a worse kind of discrimination than nationality. It is akin to race, color & sex in the sense that it cannot be changed and is not in ones control. To discriminate based on any of these is going against the very basic tenet of saying " All human beings are born free and equal in dignity and rights. " and must be illegal
    This is really alarming "
    In other words, it’s possible that almost all of the Indian workers applying today will die before they receive permanent residency, while other immigrant workers will receive their green cards almost right away. This is the system that Congress refuses to reform."

    Secondly- Priority date does not give any indication on how much time it would take to get GC. It is high time the system is changed to timer bound rather than number bound

  21. #2396
    From the Murthy bulletin:

    November 2017 Visa Bulletin Check-In: Disturbing EB3 India Revelation
    02 Nov 2017
    Most months, Charles Oppenheim, Chief of the Visa Control and Reporting Division for the U.S. Department of State (DOS), provides visa bulletin explanations and predictions. The information for the November 2017 Visa Bulletin includes updated short-term predictions, as well as a vexing revelation regarding why the employment-based, third preference (EB3) category for India has not progressed in recent months. All predictions provided relate to the final action (FA) charts.

    Employment-Based, First Preference (EB1): Remaining Current for Foreseeable Future
    Mr. Oppenheim continues to predict that, for the time being, EB1 will remain current for all countries of chargeability. Previously, however, he has cautioned that cutoff dates for EB1 India and China likely will become necessary sometime during fiscal year 2018 (FY18), which runs through September 30, 2018.

    EB3 India: No Movement in December, Failure to Respond to RFEs Exacerbates Backlogs
    The cutoff date for EB3 India is not expected to advance in the December 2017 Visa Bulletin. It is currently set at October 15, 2006. No predictions are provided for employment-based, second preference (EB2) India.

    Mr. Oppenheim further reveals some interesting information related to why EB3 India has not moved at all recently – news that is sure to frustrate many Indian nationals suffering due to the lengthy backlogs in this category. But first, it is helpful to understand some basics of how immigrant visa numbers are assigned.

    As many stakeholders are aware, there is a set number of immigrant visas available each fiscal year, and this number is further broken down based on various categories, along with a per-country limit that is at the root of the backlogs in the heavily oversubscribed categories. These annual visa numbers all must be used before the end of each fiscal year or be lost. So, when there are unused numbers near the end of each fiscal year, they trickle down to other categories that are oversubscribed. More details on this process can be found in the MurthyDotCom InfoArticle, Priority Dates: How Does the Visa Bulletin Work? (27.Oct.2015).

    During fiscal year 2017 (FY17), which ended September 30, 2017, requests for evidence (RFEs) were issued on many pending I-485s in the EB3 India category, with the expectation that the RFEs would be responded to in a timely manner, and the cases approved in August or September 2017. Inexplicably, however, hundreds of individuals in the EB3 India category failed to respond timely. This left the U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) with no choice but to allocate these visa numbers to other visa categories, rather than their being used to reduce the tremendous backlogs in EB3 India.

    EB2 and EB3 China: Taking a ‘Wait-and-See’ Approach
    Mr. Oppenheim is waiting to see whether the new in-person interview requirement imposed by the USCIS will impact the EB2-to-EB3 China ‘downgrade’ phenomenon. For the time being, EB3 China will see little-to-no movement in anticipation of a large number of downgrade cases. These dates will not be advanced substantially, in the interest of avoiding the need for retrogression later in the year. Still, Mr. Oppenheim expects the cutoff date for EB3 China to move forward later this fiscal year.

    Employment-Based, Fifth Preference (EB5) Category: Slow Movement for China
    As predicted, EB5 China advanced by about one week in the November 2017 Visa Bulletin. The EB5 category is expected to remain current for all other countries of chargeability throughout FY18.

    Conclusion
    The news related to EB3 India is undoubtedly aggravating to those languishing in this category. At the very least, it should serve as a reminder to closely monitor one’s own immigration cases – or to engage a team of attorneys who will take over that responsibility, and who know your immigration matters! For future updates on the visa bulletin and other immigration issues, subscribe to the MurthyBulletin.

  22. #2397

  23. #2398
    During fiscal year 2017 (FY17), which ended September 30, 2017, requests for evidence (RFEs) were issued on many pending I-485s in the EB3 India category, with the expectation that the RFEs would be responded to in a timely manner, and the cases approved in August or September 2017. Inexplicably, however, hundreds of individuals in the EB3 India category failed to respond timely. This left the U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) with no choice but to allocate these visa numbers to other visa categories, rather than their being used to reduce the tremendous backlogs in EB3 India.
    As if he is innocent of the situation. It was his special effort to screw up EB3-I by giving spillovers later than he could have and then rapidly forwarding the dates only in the last few months making sure many of the applicants didn't have enough time to respond to RFEs. It is his design. Now he creatively found one more way to deny visas to EB3-India. This guy should be served justice !
    Last edited by gcq; 11-03-2017 at 09:36 PM.

  24. #2399
    I agree. The visa office knows exactly how acute the situation is with Indian GC backlog. They can easily issue double or triple RFEs to ensure the quota is fully utilized. IT is criminal IMHO to give away the paltry visa available to EB3-I to somebody else.
    Quote Originally Posted by gcq View Post
    As if he is innocent of the situation. It was his special effort to screw up EB3-I by giving spillovers later than he could have and then rapidly forwarding the dates only in the last few months making sure many of the applicants didn't have enough time to respond to RFEs. It is his design. Now he creatively found one more way to deny visas to EB3-India. This guy should be served justice !
    The purpose of this site is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better. Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
    Please follow the Forum Rules and Guidelines as you participate or view the forum contents. | Forum Glossary

  25. #2400
    Quote Originally Posted by qesehmk View Post
    I agree. The visa office knows exactly how acute the situation is with Indian GC backlog. They can easily issue double or triple RFEs to ensure the quota is fully utilized. IT is criminal IMHO to give away the paltry visa available to EB3-I to somebody else.
    Yes, totally unconscionable.

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