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Thread: EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations)

  1. #2526
    Thank you iatiam. This is helpful.
    Quote Originally Posted by iatiam View Post
    Let me tell you about my own experience working with some of these folks from SIIA. The first time I heard about them was when a friend added me to their Facebook group and there was a frenzy to complete an online petition to re-capture green cards. They were looking to gather up a threshold of petitions so as to get a response from White House. They did reach the goal and got a template response from perhaps one of the WH staffers or interns which said essentially nothing.

    And then came HR392 or HR213 as it was called in last congress. Some of the SIIA members joined our advocacy efforts and tried to help. After some time they realized that the bill wasn't about GC re-capture! Some how SIIA confuses their members with changing agendas. First it was GC re-capture and useless petition, then letters to congress and in between trolling of the president, speaker and others to pass the bill.

    I am not a fan of Imm**** Vo***. They are nasty, quarrelsome and has a holier than thou attitude. But at least they are singularly focussed on removing per country caps which will solve the problem. You don't have to believe my words about SIIA. Just subscribe to their Telegram and you will know. They are completely clueless, throwing one idea after the other and shooting themselves in the foot.

    Iatiam
    The purpose of this site is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better. Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
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  2. #2527
    Quote Originally Posted by qesehmk View Post
    Thank you iatiam. This is helpful.
    iatiam summed up it up perfectly. However, I will add a bit more

    SIIA came up because I* folks rubbed some people the wrong way. SIIA is just a FB group and these are twitter,change.org and FB warriors. Their whole intent now is to do the opposite of what IV is doing and they are all over the place. They want to solve all the problems in one go. H4-EAD, recapture, HR392, citizenship and anything else under the sun. By doing so they play right into corporation and lawyers hands. The Corporations and lawyers want indentured laborers, more H1B's and don't want HR392. Right now SIIA is doing rounds with all of its agenda items and is opposing HR392 because it adds 1K fee per applicant.

    I have to say I* though undiplomatic is highly focussed on HR392.

  3. #2528
    Thanks. If this is true then that would be a pity. 1K fees is pittance compared to the lost opportunity of not having green card for decades or years.
    Quote Originally Posted by rock581 View Post
    Right now SIIA is doing rounds with all of its agenda items and is opposing HR392 because it adds 1K fee per applicant.
    The purpose of this site is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better. Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
    Please follow the Forum Rules and Guidelines as you participate or view the forum contents. | Forum Glossary

  4. #2529
    One thing i noticed about SIIA is they don't have their own bills. They are just lending support to whatever is out there. As someone who attended IV advocacy days in the past, I see SIIA getting into political mistakes that IV got into when they are young. It is good to have some counter voice to IV, but it is also not a good idea to have different organizations advocating for the same group. They are trying to mimic what IV is doing. All it takes an organization to turn into IV is a self righteous leadership which can happen for this organization any time.

  5. #2530
    I tend to believe that competition is always good. But if I understand some of the things others are saying above - they seem to be suggesting that SIIA is stealth anti immigrant and is only causing confusion rather than focus. I do not know enough to agree or disagree.

    Just my 2 cents that regardless of anything backlogged folks should push for abolition of country quota. The more organizations that make a push for it the better it is.
    Quote Originally Posted by gcq View Post
    One thing i noticed about SIIA is they don't have their own bills. They are just lending support to whatever is out there. As someone who attended IV advocacy days in the past, I see SIIA getting into political mistakes that IV got into when they are young. It is good to have some counter voice to IV, but it is also not a good idea to have different organizations advocating for the same group. They are trying to mimic what IV is doing. All it takes an organization to turn into IV is a self righteous leadership which can happen for this organization any time.
    The purpose of this site is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better. Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
    Please follow the Forum Rules and Guidelines as you participate or view the forum contents. | Forum Glossary

  6. #2531
    Quote Originally Posted by qesehmk View Post
    I tend to believe that competition is always good. But if I understand some of the things others are saying above - they seem to be suggesting that SIIA is stealth anti immigrant and is only causing confusion rather than focus. I do not know enough to agree or disagree.

    Just my 2 cents that regardless of anything backlogged folks should push for abolition of country quota. The more organizations that make a push for it the better it is.
    Sorry folks! Didn't know anything about the various efforts going on to help the immigrant community. Someone passed this on facebook and thought of spreading this. But please include me in any efforts that you all deem fit going forward. Happy to be the drop in the ocean!

  7. #2532
    Quote Originally Posted by nagendra75 View Post
    Sorry folks! Didn't know anything about the various efforts going on to help the immigrant community. Someone passed this on facebook and thought of spreading this. But please include me in any efforts that you all deem fit going forward. Happy to be the drop in the ocean!
    Nagendra, no need to apologize. It isn't your fault. Unfortunately, SIIA group seems to have a lot more online presence and strength versus a few hundred volunteers for IV. So the real choice is between several thousand fools versus a bunch of dedicated people. If you notice, the advocacy event does not talk about the agenda at all. So the idea is "sign up for this and we will eventually figure it out" does not work in a sensitive and toxic environment. With an administration hostile to immigration, a single misstep will backfire and undo several years of work done on the ground. Tweeting to Sushma Swaraj and Modi can be dismissed as foolishness. But online stalking of Sessions and speaker Ryan are suicidal.

    For those of us who have been around for long will realize that HR 3012 passed house overwhelmingly but got stuck in senate because of holds put by Sessions and Grassley. These people are still around and one of them is in a more powerful position.

    Now if you want to be part of the efforts, go to IV website and join the state and local chapters. I was actively involved but quit because I couldn't take their attitude any more. But people's tolerance levels vary (mine is very low) and I think the bill is at a crucial step and could use all the help in the world. Good luck to all

    Iatiam

  8. #2533
    Thanks for all this info and your opinion on these 2 organizations, SIIA and IV. I completely agree with your previous assessment of IV where you stated "I am not a fan of Imm**** Vo***. They are nasty, quarrelsome and has a holier than thou attitude. But at least they are singularly focussed on removing per country caps which will solve the problem. "

    While the IV folks are rough and hostile to newcomers honestly speaking, I think they are the only ones genuinely pushing for HR392 which would solve the problem and institute a "first come first serve" policy which clearly seems very fair.

  9. #2534
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    I have been a silent reader of this blog for some time now and I really appreciate the informative discussions (and the politeness of people) in this forum. I have a question. Assuming (and a BIG assumption here) that somehow, HR 392 is passed and becomes a law, how would it help people who will be impacted by the rumored AC-21 changes? I don't understand the rationale of a big push for HR 392 (as much as I want it to be a law) because AC21 might be re-interpreted/changed by the administration.

  10. #2535
    LongQue - welcome.

    HR392 will cancel the per country caps. AC21 allows extension of H1Bs, job portability and other things.

    HR392 will create the need for H1B extension universal because HR392 will eventually make green card wait times common across all countries. So then the congress will have to make laws that decide what to do with backlogs. Do they let them build up and allow continued extension of H1Bs? or do they not allow continuation of H1Bs and disrupt the employment.

    Sometimes I feel that the rumoured AC-21 change is a ploy to create urgency around HR392. Because if tech companies suddenly lose the workforce then they might be ok to stop the current indentured labor that H1 is an let these folks get Green cards via HR392. (Disclaimer: Pure speculation on my part. )

    Quote Originally Posted by LongQue View Post
    I have been a silent reader of this blog for some time now and I really appreciate the informative discussions (and the politeness of people) in this forum. I have a question. Assuming (and a BIG assumption here) that somehow, HR 392 is passed and becomes a law, how would it help people who will be impacted by the rumored AC-21 changes? I don't understand the rationale of a big push for HR 392 (as much as I want it to be a law) because AC21 might be re-interpreted/changed by the administration.
    The purpose of this site is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better. Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
    Please follow the Forum Rules and Guidelines as you participate or view the forum contents. | Forum Glossary

  11. #2536
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    Quote Originally Posted by qesehmk View Post
    LongQue - welcome.

    HR392 will cancel the per country caps. AC21 allows extension of H1Bs, job portability and other things.

    HR392 will create the need for H1B extension universal because HR392 will eventually make green card wait times common across all countries. So then the congress will have to make laws that decide what to do with backlogs. Do they let them build up and allow continued extension of H1Bs? or do they not allow continuation of H1Bs and disrupt the employment.

    Sometimes I feel that the rumoured AC-21 change is a ploy to create urgency around HR392. Because if tech companies suddenly lose the workforce then they might be ok to stop the current indentured labor that H1 is an let these folks get Green cards via HR392. (Disclaimer: Pure speculation on my part. )
    Thank you!. I feel the same way about the rumors floating around (and the convenient timing). At this stage, with DACA, The Wall, and Chain immigration taking up all the airspace, I don't think there is any appetite for the administration to fix Legal immigration (other than the token support for RAISE act, which doesn't appear to go anywhere in the immediate future). Unless there is some behind-the-doors deal that has not been leaked yet, we might not get any relief.

  12. #2537
    Quote Originally Posted by qesehmk View Post
    LongQue - welcome.

    HR392 will cancel the per country caps. AC21 allows extension of H1Bs, job portability and other things.

    HR392 will create the need for H1B extension universal because HR392 will eventually make green card wait times common across all countries. So then the congress will have to make laws that decide what to do with backlogs. Do they let them build up and allow continued extension of H1Bs? or do they not allow continuation of H1Bs and disrupt the employment.

    Sometimes I feel that the rumoured AC-21 change is a ploy to create urgency around HR392. Because if tech companies suddenly lose the workforce then they might be ok to stop the current indentured labor that H1 is an let these folks get Green cards via HR392. (Disclaimer: Pure speculation on my part. )
    How much I wish this speculation becomes reality!!!

    Quote Originally Posted by iatiam View Post
    Nagendra, no need to apologize. It isn't your fault. Unfortunately, SIIA group seems to have a lot more online presence and strength versus a few hundred volunteers for IV. So the real choice is between several thousand fools versus a bunch of dedicated people. If you notice, the advocacy event does not talk about the agenda at all. So the idea is "sign up for this and we will eventually figure it out" does not work in a sensitive and toxic environment. With an administration hostile to immigration, a single misstep will backfire and undo several years of work done on the ground. Tweeting to Sushma Swaraj and Modi can be dismissed as foolishness. But online stalking of Sessions and speaker Ryan are suicidal.

    For those of us who have been around for long will realize that HR 3012 passed house overwhelmingly but got stuck in senate because of holds put by Sessions and Grassley. These people are still around and one of them is in a more powerful position.

    Now if you want to be part of the efforts, go to IV website and join the state and local chapters. I was actively involved but quit because I couldn't take their attitude any more. But people's tolerance levels vary (mine is very low) and I think the bill is at a crucial step and could use all the help in the world. Good luck to all

    Iatiam
    Thank you Iatiam. Glimmers of hope gets me excited. :-) I will register for IV and see how I can help. Thank you for your perspective!

  13. #2538
    I am noticing that PERM approvals have slowed down. Is this because of extreme vetting by this administration causing DOL to scrutinize more and hence, the slow down or is this a side effect of Trump administration's anti-immigrant rhetoric that there is ACTUALLY A REDUCTION in GC filing? I think that this may be a combination of both, but would like to get others' take on it.

  14. #2539
    Quote Originally Posted by EB3Iwaiting View Post
    I am noticing that PERM approvals have slowed down. Is this because of extreme vetting by this administration causing DOL to scrutinize more and hence, the slow down or is this a side effect of Trump administration's anti-immigrant rhetoric that there is ACTUALLY A REDUCTION in GC filing? I think that this may be a combination of both, but would like to get others' take on it.
    There's an ebb and flow to the pace of OFLC PERM processing.

    Currently, they are processing at a far slower rate than applications have been received (after a sustained period where the opposite was true and the backlog numbers reduced).

    Here's some historical figures showing PERM applications received, applications processed and the backlog at the end of the FY.

    FY ----- Received --- Processed --- Backlog
    FY2009 --- 60,977 ------ 36,409 ---- 66,685
    FY2010 --- 43,984 ------ 82,685 ---- 29,993
    FY2011 --- 67,383 ------ 78,980 ---- 19,807
    FY2012 --- 69,738 ------ 66,488 ---- 22,860
    FY2013 --- 72,462 ------ 42,491 ---- 49,826
    FY2014 --- 74,936 ------ 70,998 ---- 54,523
    FY2015 --- 87,644 ------ 89,151 ---- 54,559
    FY2016 --- 97,504 ----- 126,143 ---- 26,669
    FY2017 -- 105,034 ------ 97,603 ---- 38,819


    To date, there is no credible evidence that underlying PERM applications have reduced. The Q1 FY2018 statistics are due soon, which will give the next data point.
    Last edited by Spectator; 01-08-2018 at 10:55 AM.
    Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.

  15. #2540
    Quote Originally Posted by Spectator View Post
    There's an ebb and flow to the pace of OFLC PERM processing.
    I agree with Spec. This is generally true about all other stages of GC processing.
    The purpose of this site is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better. Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
    Please follow the Forum Rules and Guidelines as you participate or view the forum contents. | Forum Glossary

  16. #2541
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    Its actually pretty depressing to see that not only there is no decline in PERM demand - there is actually a significant increase. Only silver lining (sort of, not for people getting in line these days) is that a large proportion of new PERMs are from EB-2/3-I so it does not affect spillover.

    Quote Originally Posted by Spectator View Post
    There's an ebb and flow to the pace of OFLC PERM processing.

    Currently, they are processing at a far slower rate than applications have been received (after a sustained period where the opposite was true and the backlog numbers reduced).

    Here's some historical figures showing PERM applications received, applications processed and the backlog at the end of the FY.

    FY ----- Received --- Processed --- Backlog
    FY2009 --- 60,977 ------ 36,409 ---- 66,685
    FY2010 --- 43,984 ------ 82,685 ---- 29,993
    FY2011 --- 67,383 ------ 78,980 ---- 19,807
    FY2012 --- 69,738 ------ 66,488 ---- 22,860
    FY2013 --- 72,462 ------ 42,491 ---- 49,826
    FY2014 --- 74,936 ------ 70,998 ---- 54,523
    FY2015 --- 87,644 ------ 89,151 ---- 54,559
    FY2016 --- 97,504 ----- 126,143 ---- 26,669
    FY2017 -- 105,034 ------ 97,603 ---- 38,819


    To date, there is no credible evidence that underlying PERM applications have reduced. The Q1 FY2018 statistics are due soon, which will give the next data point.
    EB2I NSC | PD: 08/07/2009 | Forum Glossary

  17. #2542

    Under pressure, Trump team backs off proposal to cull foreign tech workforce

    http://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/poli...193665104.html

    WASHINGTON Under intense pressure from the business and technology communities, the Trump administration appears to be backing away from a policy change that could have forced foreign tech workers out of the country.


  18. #2543
    Year/Month India 2016 China 2016 Row 2016 India 2017 China 2017 Row 2017 India 2018 China 2018 Row 2018
    OCT 3726 620 2870 4851 704 2887 2571 473 1979
    NOV 3704 574 2484 4118 744 2677 3020 656 2168
    DEC 5120 784 3392 3429 604 2413 2337 600 1762
    JAN 4441 744 4472 3582 646 2725 393# 93# 307#
    FEB 5658 942 3795 3830 507 2153 N/A N/A N/A
    MAR 5622 901 3927 4750 777 2811 N/A N/A N/A
    APR 5103 793 3333 4646 682 2522 N/A N/A N/A
    MAY 5898 833 4034 4554 817 3069 N/A N/A N/A
    JUN 6401 1141 3994 4514 790 2931 N/A N/A N/A
    JUL 5247 902 3236 2640 452 1644 N/A N/A N/A
    AUG 5527 899 3366 1808 343 1209 N/A N/A N/A
    SEP 5397 772 2653 4631 905 3185 N/A N/A N/A
    TOTAL 61844 9905 41556 47353 7971 30226 8321 1822 6216

    # Indicates upto Jan 8th 2018.

    I doesn't want to JINX the approvals, right now the PERM approvals are down when compared with previous two Years.

    If this trend continues EB2 ROW will be current throught out the year and there might be NICE spill over for EB3 India and China.

    South Korea Filings are down, South Korea is the major chunk eater of the ROW visas.

    China PERM filings increased compared to previous years.

    Also as per the law firm which my company uses, ROW Surge in the PERM filings are due to the Trump Administration Polices, they are worried how it might change in future, and they wanted to file when things are in their favor. But Interview made the perm filings down for ROW as they have to spend extra for translator and attorney.


    source for the data is permchecker

  19. #2544
    Quote Originally Posted by redsox2009 View Post
    Year/Month India 2016 China 2016 Row 2016 India 2017 China 2017 Row 2017 India 2018 China 2018 Row 2018
    OCT 3726 620 2870 4851 704 2887 2571 473 1979
    NOV 3704 574 2484 4118 744 2677 3020 656 2168
    DEC 5120 784 3392 3429 604 2413 2337 600 1762
    JAN 4441 744 4472 3582 646 2725 393# 93# 307#
    FEB 5658 942 3795 3830 507 2153 N/A N/A N/A
    MAR 5622 901 3927 4750 777 2811 N/A N/A N/A
    APR 5103 793 3333 4646 682 2522 N/A N/A N/A
    MAY 5898 833 4034 4554 817 3069 N/A N/A N/A
    JUN 6401 1141 3994 4514 790 2931 N/A N/A N/A
    JUL 5247 902 3236 2640 452 1644 N/A N/A N/A
    AUG 5527 899 3366 1808 343 1209 N/A N/A N/A
    SEP 5397 772 2653 4631 905 3185 N/A N/A N/A
    TOTAL 61844 9905 41556 47353 7971 30226 8321 1822 6216

    # Indicates upto Jan 8th 2018.

    I doesn't want to JINX the approvals, right now the PERM approvals are down when compared with previous two Years.

    If this trend continues EB2 ROW will be current throught out the year and there might be NICE spill over for EB3 India and China.

    South Korea Filings are down, South Korea is the major chunk eater of the ROW visas.

    China PERM filings increased compared to previous years.

    Also as per the law firm which my company uses, ROW Surge in the PERM filings are due to the Trump Administration Polices, they are worried how it might change in future, and they wanted to file when things are in their favor. But Interview made the perm filings down for ROW as they have to spend extra for translator and attorney.


    source for the data is permchecker
    India numbers started turning around in Dec 2016 (FY 2017); right after Trump was elected. Must be coincidence.. or is it ?

  20. #2545
    Quote Originally Posted by redsox2009 View Post
    Year/Month India 2016 China 2016 Row 2016 India 2017 China 2017 Row 2017 India 2018 China 2018 Row 2018
    OCT 3726 620 2870 4851 704 2887 2571 473 1979
    NOV 3704 574 2484 4118 744 2677 3020 656 2168
    DEC 5120 784 3392 3429 604 2413 2337 600 1762
    JAN 4441 744 4472 3582 646 2725 393# 93# 307#
    FEB 5658 942 3795 3830 507 2153 N/A N/A N/A
    MAR 5622 901 3927 4750 777 2811 N/A N/A N/A
    APR 5103 793 3333 4646 682 2522 N/A N/A N/A
    MAY 5898 833 4034 4554 817 3069 N/A N/A N/A
    JUN 6401 1141 3994 4514 790 2931 N/A N/A N/A
    JUL 5247 902 3236 2640 452 1644 N/A N/A N/A
    AUG 5527 899 3366 1808 343 1209 N/A N/A N/A
    SEP 5397 772 2653 4631 905 3185 N/A N/A N/A
    TOTAL 61844 9905 41556 47353 7971 30226 8321 1822 6216

    # Indicates upto Jan 8th 2018.

    I doesn't want to JINX the approvals, right now the PERM approvals are down when compared with previous two Years.

    If this trend continues EB2 ROW will be current throught out the year and there might be NICE spill over for EB3 India and China.

    South Korea Filings are down, South Korea is the major chunk eater of the ROW visas.

    China PERM filings increased compared to previous years.

    Also as per the law firm which my company uses, ROW Surge in the PERM filings are due to the Trump Administration Polices, they are worried how it might change in future, and they wanted to file when things are in their favor. But Interview made the perm filings down for ROW as they have to spend extra for translator and attorney.


    source for the data is permchecker
    Nice work, RedSox. This is even before any major policy change and a more than robust economy. As and when the rule makings change this year - H1B employee/employer relation and H1B pre-registration then expect the results to be more dramatic. I think in a year's time we are looking at a scenario where multiple things coming together - EB3I backlog clearing, PERM slowdown, rampant H1B denials. This will be an interesting year to watch in terms of immigration alone.

    Iatiam

  21. #2546
    Spec,

    any plans to update trackitt numbers this year?
    EB2-I, PD - 03/25/2009

  22. #2547
    Hi all,

    My PD is Dec 2008 EB2I.

    I ported from EB3 to EB2 and filed my I485 in Nov'15 when the filing date was introduced. I received EAD/ AP after that. I've been in H1B while renewing my EAD. My medicals had expired long back and I've neither received a RFE (not even at time of renewing EAD/AP) nor an interview appointment till now.

    So I have 2 questions:

    1) I am not sure what will happen next when the date becomes current in next 2 months (hopefully). Can someone guide ?
    2) Since my 485 was filed before the cut off for visa interviews, does that mean I will be exempt from interview ?

    I would appreciate the guidance here.

    Thanks.

  23. #2548
    If US respects the One China policy, why is Taiwan given separate Green Cards?

  24. #2549
    If US can give Taiwan Arms ... then US can sure give Green Cards to Taiwan.

    That doesn't sound very much like US respects One China policy.

    Quote Originally Posted by EB3Iwaiting View Post
    If US respects the One China policy, why is Taiwan given separate Green Cards?
    The purpose of this site is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better. Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
    Please follow the Forum Rules and Guidelines as you participate or view the forum contents. | Forum Glossary

  25. #2550
    Quote Originally Posted by EB3Iwaiting View Post
    If US respects the One China policy, why is Taiwan given separate Green Cards?
    If you want to understand why, I suggest that the wikipedia articles on One-China policy, the Taiwan Relations Act of 1979 and the Six Assurances might give you a background to the situation.
    Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.

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