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Thread: EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations)

  1. #1026
    From Greg Siskand.

    On a plane as I’m writing this and will arrive in Seattle close to midnight with a long night of work ahead. Andrew Free and I, along with local counsel Bob Pauw and Bob Gibbons (who are brilliant lawyers who happen to be located in Seattle), are planning on filing a request for temporary restraining order tomorrow and get a hearing later in the day. Of course, we’re very hopeful USCIS will not make it necessary to ask for this.

    We have been getting sworn declarations for those harmed by this debacle and will be armed with 100s of them as well as several declarations from some of the best known immigration lawyers in America. We hope strong documentation along with solid arguments will carry the day. The feedback we received on our complaint filed yesterday was gratifying and we’re hoping sensible minds in the government will see Friday’s decision as an unnecessary disaster and will work to rectify quickly.

    We’ve been trying to crunch numbers to determine how many people are affected. We’ve heard unofficial estimates of 25,000 or more, but if readers know more please let me know.

    Also, we are particularly interested in hearing from people who will suffer unusually severe harm from not being able to file. In particular, if you’ve run out of time on an L-1B, if you’re not AC21 extension eligible for some reason, if you didn’t file an H-1B extension because you were relying on filing to adjust on 10/1, please let me know as well.

    Will let you know more tomorrow. Wish us luck.

  2. #1027
    Quote Originally Posted by qesehmk View Post
    Guys - do call this reporter GENE JOHNSON - and also tell him that these country caps are completely discriminatory.

    A country of 1.2B people that is sending almost 50,000 of its brightest people here - they are subject to the same quota as senegal or nepal or cameroon. Thus resulting into extra ordinary delays for them while people from aforementioned countries are getting GCs in months. Nothing against them - but this is absolute injustice.

    Agreed, he is probably one of the few who have provided some media coverage. Worth the while to at least hit him up with some additional content.

    http://bigstory.ap.org/article/2278e...-them-millions

  3. #1028

  4. #1029

  5. #1030
    Quote Originally Posted by srimurthy View Post
    Especially on the employment categories, as we say they are equal opportunity for all with same or similar skills.
    Guys, we have tried to pull together rationale to contest the constitutionality of the per country limits, but have reason to believe that the courts typically don't hear broad/overarching immigration related issues that go against congress's intent. The courts claim that congresses has 'plenary powers' that they are unwilling to contest.

    If anyone has additional knowledge around how to navigate around this plenary power issue, it would be very interesting to re-kindle the initial effort.

  6. #1031

  7. #1032
    Yoda
    Join Date
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    Quote Originally Posted by Spectator View Post
    SK,

    Firstly, good luck with the lawsuit.

    From the PERM data and making various allowances (which generally reduce the number), I would estimate that around 22.3k additional cases (primary and dependent) for EB2-I would have been able to file with a PD of May 1, 2010 to June 30, 2011. In addition, there could be an unquantified number of porting cases with an original EB3 PD in the affected range who have subsequently had an EB2 I-140 approved.

    EB2-C has previously reached 15DEC13. The extra due to a move to 01MAY14 I would estimate to be about 2k.

    EB3-P has previously reached a COD of 01OCT14 versus a filing date of 01JAN15 in the original October VB. I can't guess the effect of the gap. Many (if not most) cases do not need a PERM because they are Schedule A workers and a significant number follow the CP route.

    I have no idea of the impact on the FB cases.

    It's quite a long time since I have really visited this subject and the underlying assumptions, so take the figures as a best guess. That may not be good enough for the purpose you describe.

    PS:- The USCIS Inventory data (which I think you used for your calculation) include dependents. It probably did not capture the true number of EB2-IC cases when the dates moved forward rapidly in FY2012, since cases were also being approved at that time.
    Thanks Spec!

  8. #1033
    Just came home and tried to check if there was any news on trackitt and it was down. Then tried Ron Gotcher's forum and that's down too. Man, people are just too anxious and trying to access in hordes.

    Going out. Will check back sometime later. Hopefully, it would be good news.
    Last edited by Jonty Rhodes; 09-30-2015 at 07:12 PM.

  9. #1034
    Quote Originally Posted by Jonty Rhodes View Post
    Just came home and tried to check if there was any news on trackitt and it was down. Then tried Ron Gotcher's forum and that's down too. Man, people are just too anxious and trying to access in hordes.

    Going out. Will check back sometime later. Hopefully, it would be good news.
    Sailing in the same boat mate 😕

  10. #1035
    Yoda
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    TRO filed. No hearing today. Hopefully tomorrow morning!

  11. #1036
    Greg's Rundown of the Days Events

    Visa Bulletin Law Suit Update – 09-30-2015
    By Greg Siskind On September 30, 2015 Add Comment

    Hi folks – here is the run down of today’s developments. For the better part of today, we have been in contact with a wide range of people – other groups, people on the Hill, reporters who would tell the story of this injustice – in hopes of seeking a solution that would avoid the need for immediate intervention by a judge. Given the short time frame between now and October 1st – mere hours – we have filed a motion for a temporary restraining order to prevent the government from rejecting applications based on the second released Visa Bulletin. We have also filed an amended complaint that has some new plaintiffs and additional legal arguments.

    We have been in contact with the government about our case and will continue to do so. We remain hopeful for a quick and positive outcome.

    We are now awaiting a hearing with the court. We hoped for today, but we now think it will be tomorrow morning. We know people are uncertain about whether to file tonight or not and can’t give you a perfect answer to that. We don’t know what is going to happen tomorrow when those first cases are received.

    In the mean time, we remind everyone that a lawsuit is just one pressure point. Please work with the advocacy organizations in their campaigns to reach out to Congress and the Administration. Rallies, flower campaigns, calls and visits to your representatives are all critical. And let people in the media know why this is so important. Today, we started to see this happening with stories in Bloomberg BNA, the Associated Press and Law360. We know more stories will be running tomorrow in other media outlets.

    A special thanks is in order for Congresswoman Zoe Lofgren and Congressman Mike Honda who both issued press releases noting our lawsuit and urging USCIS to restore stability in our immigration system by honoring the commitments made in the original Visa Bulletin.

    Many, many lawyers have been contributing time to helping with this. The lawyers of ABIL – the Alliance of Business Immigration Lawyers – have been fantastic. They put together several teams to help us with declarations for today’s amended complaint. Folks at AILA and AIC have been giving us helpful feedback and advice. Diane Butler’s team at Lane Powell in Seattle jumped in to help at a moment’s notice. When we needed an organization to add as a plaintiff, the IMG Taskforce, an organization that I’ve been involved with for years that advocates on behalf of physician immigrants, stepped in and is our newest named plaintiff. Sheila Hahn of Memphis helped us quickly onboard a new named plaintiff in Seattle.

    And many thanks to the thousands of you out there who have been helping to crowdsource this case. When I’ve asked for case examples, you’ve provided them in droves. When I needed some quick research on a question, I’ve gotten great replies. When I’ve needed people to talk to media, you’ve stepped up. Incredible! If we haven’t used you’ve provided just yet, don’t worry. Everything you’re sending is getting read and factored in to our thinking about the solution here.

    Tomorrow we’ll have an update on the hearing. After dinner I’ll post the new complaint and the TRO request.

    http://blog.ilw.com/gregsiskind/2015...te-09-30-2015/
    Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.

  12. #1037
    This is some solid work by Greg Siskind, Cyrus Mehta and other attorneys.

    https://www.dropbox.com/sh/ofsnyyff7...eU9Jz3iOa?dl=0

    I am sure we have a solid case or least that's what it seems to be.

    Cyrus Mehta's declaration interestingly talks about legality of dual date system and from what I understood from reading it, it seems very legal and defensible in court.

    Those are some interesting declarations and Greg by putting those, has tried to cover all the aspects of this issue. Great job.

    Now, hopefully the judge would agree with them also.

    Please also read this.

    http://blog.cyrusmehta.com/2015/09/s...-bulletin.html
    Last edited by Jonty Rhodes; 10-01-2015 at 12:49 AM.

  13. #1038
    Quote Originally Posted by skpanda View Post
    TRO filed. No hearing today. Hopefully tomorrow morning!
    Good luck to everyone! May justice prevail!

  14. #1039
    From Greg Twitter Account.

    Oct. 1, 2015 - There may be a hearing in Seattle this morning on the motion for TRO. Meanwhile, here are links to key documents in Mehta v. DOS, No. 15cv1543, W.D. Wa.: - See more at: http://www.lexisnexis.com/legalnewsr....fTN9OPbw.dpuf

  15. #1040
    From Greg Twitter ..

    Govt being given time to respond by 4:15 today . Will keep you updated.
    To be clear, no hearing until govt has had opportunity to provide written responses.

  16. #1041
    Freshman
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    USA
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    I am surprised that there have not been too much discussion related to options for those that would benefit if there was a Temporary Restraining order based on Siskind's lawsuit. Would the experts advice to apply if TRO was in effect later today ? The issue at hand is that if we send the documents and then in the meanwhile, Siskind (We)lose the case, what would be the implications ? Does rejection of a 485 have any negative impact on our regular(H1B) immigration situation ?

  17. #1042
    if TRO is issued, it will be effective immediately.

    if we loose, I am seeing 2 different opinions from reputed lawyers..
    Murthy site recommends NOT to apply, However both Ron Gotcher and Ohm Law recommends to apply.
    even Frogmen is not recomending ... so we have 2 yes and 2 no votes on it..

    I think, NOT Applying is better.

  18. #1043
    Freshman
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    Quote Originally Posted by tatikonda View Post
    if TRO is issued, it will be effective immediately.

    if we loose, I am seeing 2 different opinions from reputed lawyers..
    Murthy site recommends NOT to apply, However both Ron Gotcher and Ohm Law recommends to apply.
    even Frogmen is not recomending ... so we have 2 yes and 2 no votes on it..

    I think, NOT Applying is better.
    Thank you very much for the info !

  19. #1044
    Freshman
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    USA
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    My relationship with the current lawyer is through the company I work for. He filed my I-140 and labor but he has been a little lukewarm in his response to 485 filing which I understand because my priority date is July 10. But he does not have my documents ready in case the TRO goes through .. With that in mind, I want to know if it is ok to file the 485 documents on my own or through a different lawyer ? What considerations should I have ? This might sound wishful thinking but I want to be prepared. Your opinions would be greatly appreciated !

  20. #1045

    Visa Case

    Any idea, when will we hear the results on Siskind case? Tired of pressing refresh button.

  21. #1046
    Quote Originally Posted by mknop1 View Post
    My relationship with the current lawyer is through the company I work for. He filed my I-140 and labor but he has been a little lukewarm in his response to 485 filing which I understand because my priority date is July 10. But he does not have my documents ready in case the TRO goes through .. With that in mind, I want to know if it is ok to file the 485 documents on my own or through a different lawyer ? What considerations should I have ? This might sound wishful thinking but I want to be prepared. Your opinions would be greatly appreciated !
    Technically, there is no need for a lawyer to file I-485. When the date became current in 2012, several people I know chose to file their I-485 by themselves. Unlike the I-140, which is 'owned' by the sponsoring company and typically requires a qualified immigration attorney, the I 485 is owned by the individual and can be self-filed.

    The key is to have all the documents ready and ensure that all required documentation is provided at the time of filing.

  22. #1047
    While we wait for the visagate thing to pan out, can someone please throw light on eb3 India movement in coming months. I am seeing pessimism on trackitt with couple of people expecting only 1 to 2 weeks movement each VB. I know there are many number crunchers on this forum and good at it. What is the likelihood of VB moving faster than 1 to 2 weeks. I was seeing predictions of 2005 and 2006 for Eb3 India for fy 2016... Is this too far fetched ??

  23. #1048
    Nice explanation from CO on the VB acceptance dates :
    https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B0Z...kT2M3anA4/view

  24. #1049
    Quote Originally Posted by YTeleven View Post
    Nice explanation from CO on the VB acceptance dates :
    https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B0Z...kT2M3anA4/view
    Yeah. Nice way to say, "Shut up and keep suffering"!!!

  25. #1050

    Angry

    Quote Originally Posted by richie.rich View Post
    Yeah. Nice way to say, "Shut up and keep suffering"!!!
    Funny Part: Is Modernization of Immigration focussed on predictive analysis and allocation of resources? Looks like, it is not for immigrants.

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