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Thread: EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations)

  1. #1

    Lightbulb EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations)

    • Sep 07 - We have cleaned up this thread and archived all old posts. Those archives of old EB2-3 Calculations can be found HERE


    General Trends

    Tailwinds (+ve things)
    Economy is not doing that bad but the PERM certification show it is not doing great. We expect this trend to continue into 2015.
    Very low EB3 demand
    . 4K extra visas from FB.

    Headwinds (-ve things)
    . High EB2ROW demand and equally high EB2 overall demand.
    Increased EB1 usage & current EB1 backlog.
    EB5 close to being retrogressed.

    Impact of Presidential Executive Order on Immigration

    The Executive Order issued by President Obama on Nov 20th is directional and not prescriptive. It leaves the agencies and departments to determine the specific course of action. There are two tangible benefits that can be expected in near term (3 months) as a result of this order.
    1. The president has asked CBP officers to not consider prior visa violations while giving entry to a person using advanced parole.
    2. There is an H4-EAD rule being discussed (even prior to the Executive Order). So as part of the executive order the agencies might finally implement this in next couple of months.

    From backlog reduction / visa relief perspective the order leaves it upto agencies to decide what specific action they would take. It is highly likely that ability to file 485 without dates being current would be one of the things the agencies might propose within next 6 months. Somewhat likely also could be visa recapture from prior years. Visa recapture is the process of counting unused visas from prior years and making them available going forward. Such action previously has only been possible with a law being passed by congress. However many experts have opined that it DHS does not need a law to be passed in order to recapture unused visas from prior years. There is a third and less likely option that agencies might consider. It includes not counting EB dependents under EB quota. This will effectively almost double EB quota for every year and could possibly make all categories current for foreseeable future. Please understand these are all possibilities at this point of time.
    Last edited by qesehmk; 08-31-2015 at 11:42 PM.
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  2. #2

    Spec's Predictions for FY2017

    As always, please take the following with a pinch of salt. It is a best effort, but the variables mean it can never be truly accurate and has wide error margins.

    FY2017

    EB1

    Without any substantial change, EB1 is likely to use its full allocation again in FY2017. This is even more likely, since EB1 China and India were retrogressed for the final 2 months of FY2016 - therefore up to 14 months of demand will be available in FY2017 for these Countries.

    EB4

    For EB4, CO has set a 15JUN15 FAD in October for El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras within EB4 and expects slow progress during FY2017. If that's the case, then there will not be any spillover from EB4 in FY2017.

    EB5

    The EB5 regional center program is currently scheduled to sunset at the end of FY2016. If, as is widely expected, it is extended, then EB5 will not provide SO either. Even if the amounts required to qualify under the RC are substantially increased, there is already a large backlog of Chinese investors under the old system, sufficient for several years. Should the RC program eventually be abolished, it would provide a healthy number of spare visas in the short term.

    Family Based Visas from FY2016

    All FB Categories and Countries are retrogressed. FB should use all their 226k allocation in FY2016. Any spare visas would be a bonus. CO seems to be doing a better job utilizing them recently. As an update, CO has now published the anticipated Annual Numerical Limits for Fiscal Year 2017. This shows no anticipated extra visas from FB use last FY, so the EB limit for FY2017 will be 140k. Although it may get updated at a later date, I don't expect much change - perhaps a few hundred as in FY2016.

    PERM

    PERM certifications for the last 6-7 months have remained very high, so the pipeline of ROW approvals for the first half of FY2017 is also likely to be quite high.

    It's true that the PERM certifications have been high and the backlog has reduced (from 58.9k at the end of FY2015 to 38.6k at the end of Q3 FY2016). At some point, the certifications should slow, but it's not clear when this might happen. Last time (FY2011) OFLC brought the backlog down to 20k.

    At the same time, the number of new PERM receipts also appears to have risen (from 87.6k in FY2015 to a prorated 99.4k in FY2016).

    EB2

    Worldwide

    The high PERM pipeline plus retrogression in the last 2 months of FY2016 means that EB2-WW approvals are likely to remain relatively high for at least the first half of FY2017. Due to the retrogression, up to 14 months demand is available in FY2017 for EB2-WW.

    India

    The prospects for EB2-I in FY2017 look quite bleak. The sources of traditional spillover look to be dry for a second successive year. This might only change late in the FY.

    EB3

    India

    High PERM certifications and a trend towards an increased % of ROW EB3 cases may put the squeeze on available Fall Across within EB3.

    EB3-I still has the very difficult last week of March 2005 to traverse. Again, any substantial movement will happen very late in the FY. Until then, it will be glacially slow.
    Last edited by Spectator; 10-16-2016 at 11:04 AM. Reason: Added some thoughts about FY2017
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  3. #3
    Guru imdeng's Avatar
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    Placeholder for FY2015 predictions.
    Last edited by imdeng; 09-08-2014 at 08:08 AM.
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  4. #4
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    Quote Originally Posted by Spectator View Post
    imdeng,

    Thanks for the kind words.

    I hear what you say about pre-adjudication and I think you are probably correct.

    Unfortunately, that also means that the DOS Demand figures will undercount the true numbers, since USCIS will not request the visa until pre-adjudication is complete.

    Sometimes it's just nice to wish. Would it have taken so much effort to have added another stage in the online status to reflect pre-adjudication when they changed the system?

    I don't think so. It just reflects that USCIS are not, despite what they might want people to believe, very customer orientated.
    Which could mean that the dates might move faster (whenever they do move) than they should and then retrogress again.

  5. #5

    EB3-India Predictions

    In few hours from now we will be in FY15, this will be my last post in FY14.
    I've a very positive prediction for EB3-India folks who are waiting for more than 10 years in the GC Q.
    Back in May'14 I was predicting that EB3-India will have bright future ahead in this post: here

    After a thorough data analysis I could say that in FY16 we will see a complete wipe out of EB3-I I485 inventory as shown in this graph:EB3-I I485 inventory trends
    Here I'm comparing the same graph with current EB3-ROW inventory trend:EB3-I I485 inventory trends comparing with EB3-ROW inventory trend

    After seeing these graphs you might question why would we see 20k spillover to EB3-I in FY16. This is what I'm getting from all the available data pointers.
    After FY15 there will not be any demand for EB3 to consume its yearly 40k visas and that gives a massive horizontal spillover to EB3-India.
    So this means we will have inventory buildup for EB3-I also in FY16.

    Already, this post predicts that there is a possibility for EB2-I inventory building in FY16.

  6. #6
    No number crunching from me, taking a macro view.

    Here are the visa bulletins in the month of September for the last 4 years:

    2010: May 8, 2006
    2011: Apr 15, 2007
    2012: NA
    2013: June 15, 2008
    2014: May 1, 2009

    Salient observations:
    - Over the last 4 years, average date advancement is 9 months per calender year.
    - Over the last 3 years, the average date advancement is 7.5 months per calender year.
    - Even between 2011-2013, when we were hit by increasing EB1 and EB2-ROW demand, the average movement continued at 7 months per calender year.

    Tailwinds going forward:
    - EB2-ROW: Getting a Perm is going to be very tough going forward.
    - Porting from EB3I to EB2I: Read above.

    Headwinds going forward:
    - EB5: For all practical purposes, consider this out of equation.

    Unknown:
    - EB1: In particular EB1C. In my opinion, EB1 is one Kazarian-style memo away (that hits EB1C-I hard) from giving 10K+ spillover.
    - FB spillover: It is still not clear whether FB spillover will be available.

    Overall, we lose EB5, but the damage is contained since EB5 cannot get numbers from anywhere else (thank goodness). We should gain big time due to increasing PERM delays, so everyone whose PERMs and labors are clear gain advantage.

    One of the biggest factors though that facilitated all the date movement for the last 2 years was FB spillover in 2013 and 2014. FB gave EB 28K visas combined over the last 2 years, and an estimated 20K of those visas were consumed by EB2I. This is a huge number and made all the difference for EB2I. 20K for EB2I is almost an years worth of advancement. Without the FB numbers, we would be at May 1, 2008 today and not in May 1, 2009.

    For FY 2015:
    - Not having significant FB spillover will impact the movement negatively.
    - The positive effect of PERM delays will not show up significantly for FY 2015. However, increased PERM delays will ensure that EB2-ROW doesn't kill EB2I which was otherwise looking like a real possibility.
    - EB1 and EB2-ROW will still provide some spillover. EB2-ROW spillover will only come due to PERM delays.
    - Without having any other source of spillover, the movement will be just enough to reach the end of 2009. Going to the 3 year average, my point estimate is December 15, 2009.
    Last edited by sportsfan33; 10-01-2014 at 11:31 AM.

  7. #7
    Notes on Discussion with Charles Oppenheim, Chief of Visa Control, updated Oct 01 2014.

    http://www.cilawgroup.com/news/2014/...ctober-1-2014/

  8. #8
    Quote Originally Posted by Kanmani View Post
    Notes on Discussion with Charles Oppenheim, Chief of Visa Control, updated Oct 01 2014.

    http://www.cilawgroup.com/news/2014/...ctober-1-2014/
    the article says...

    On a more general level, Mr. Oppenheim shared that his goal is to advance the cutoff dates more at the beginning of the fiscal year (October, November and December, and January visa bulletins) and then, as he is able to gauge demand for a particular preference category, adjust accordingly by either slowing down or retrogressing (if demand is high) or advancing even more (is demand turns out to be low).

    I hope it is an indication of inventory build up.... any comments/ thoughts

  9. #9

    How to see the PERM CERT online

    Gurus -

    I do not have access to the PERM data docs. ( I don't want to ask the company or attorney!). I am interested in finding the exact job description used in PERM.

    I do have the ETA Case number with me. I remember there used to be a way to see the details online in some site.

    Can someone please help me with this.

    Admin -

    Pls move to appropriate thread, if this is not the correct one.

    Thank you in advance.

  10. #10

    Unofficial FY2014 PERM Figures

    Unofficial PERM Certifications FY2014

    The figures are based on OFLC Data for Q1-Q3 FY2014 and DOL LCR Data for Q4 FY2014.

    I have updated the charts (only) in this post. The PERM posts will be updated when the official OFLC disclosure data is released.

    The following shows certifications for FY2014 and the increase on certifications in FY2013. Certifications in FY2013 were 35,206.

    FY2014 vs FY2013 ------ Increase
    China -------- 4,696 ---- 120%
    India ------- 35,164 ----- 68%
    Mexico ------- 1,293 ----- 80%
    Philippines -- 1,508 ----- 63%
    ROW --------- 20,018 ----- 91%
    ALL --------- 62,679 ----- 78%

    The following shows the FY2014 figures for H1 (Q1-Q2) FY2014 and the increase on certifications in H1 FY2013.

    FY2014 vs FY2013 H1 - Increase
    China -------- 1,831 ----- 37%
    India ------- 14,539 ----- 18%
    Mexico --------- 603 ----- 31%
    Philippines ---- 684 ----- 23%
    ROW ---------- 8,543 ----- 33%
    ALL --------- 26,200 ----- 24%

    The following shows the FY2014 figures for H2 (Q3-Q4) FY2014 and the increase on certifications in H2 FY2013.

    FY2014 vs FY2013 H2 - Increase
    China -------- 2,865 ---- 257%
    India ------- 20,625 ---- 140%
    Mexico --------- 690 ---- 166%
    Philippines ---- 824 ---- 122%
    ROW --------- 11,475 ---- 182%
    ALL --------- 36,479 ---- 159%

    The following shows the relative % of certifications in FY2014 by half year and the % increase in H2 compared to H1.

    FY2014 --------- H1 ---- H2 - H2 vs H1
    China --------- 39% --- 61% --- 56%
    India --------- 41% --- 59% --- 42%
    Mexico -------- 47% --- 53% --- 14%
    Philippines --- 45% --- 55% --- 20%
    ROW ----------- 43% --- 57% --- 34%
    ALL ----------- 42% --- 58% --- 39%

    The following shows the relationship between certifications in Q3-Q4 FY2013 and Q1-Q2 FY2014 (likely to translate to FY2014 GC approvals for Current Countries) versus the certifications in Q3-Q4 FY2014 (likely to translate to FY2015 GC approvals for Current Countries). Certifications to come in Q1-Q2 FY2015 are likely to also translate to GC approvals in FY2015.

    ------------- H2FY13/
    ------------- H1FY14 - H2FY14 --- %

    China -------- 2,633 -- 2,865 - 109%
    India ------- 23,116 - 20,625 -- 89%
    Mexico --------- 862 ---- 690 -- 80%
    Philippines -- 1,056 ---- 824 -- 78%
    ROW --------- 12,608 - 11,475 -- 91%
    ALL --------- 40,275 - 36,479 -- 91%
    Last edited by Spectator; 10-23-2014 at 07:58 PM.
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  11. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kanmani View Post
    Notes on Discussion with Charles Oppenheim, Chief of Visa Control, updated Oct 01 2014.

    http://www.cilawgroup.com/news/2014/...ctober-1-2014/

    Official confirmation that inventory buildup will happen early in the FY.

    EB2-I inventory buildup should happen either Oct-Nov-Dec 2015 (Best Case) or Oct-Nov-Dec 2016 (Optimistic) or Oct-Nov-Dec 2017 (Worst Case).

    On a more general level, Mr. Oppenheim shared that his goal is to advance the cutoff dates more at the beginning of the fiscal year (October, November and December, and January visa bulletins) and then, as he is able to gauge demand for a particular preference category, adjust accordingly by either slowing down or retrogressing (if demand is high) or advancing even more (is demand turns out to be low).

  12. #12
    @Light@EOT

    You can send FOIA request to DOL to send you the copy of PERM. I sent email to DOL just couple of days back to get the certified copy of PERM.

    DOL website - http://www.dol.gov/dol/foia/guide6.htm

    Google - PERM FOIA to get more details.

  13. #13
    Quote Originally Posted by Light@EOT View Post
    Gurus -

    I do not have access to the PERM data docs. ( I don't want to ask the company or attorney!). I am interested in finding the exact job description used in PERM.

    I do have the ETA Case number with me. I remember there used to be a way to see the details online in some site.

    Can someone please help me with this.

    Admin -

    Pls move to appropriate thread, if this is not the correct one.

    Thank you in advance.
    Light@EOT,

    If the case is certified and the data is available, you can go to the DOL LCR site.

    Choose Case Type PERM and enter your ETA case number. Make sure the Start Date Range covers your case. Choose search and the case will come up. On the right hand side is a link to the redacted ETA 9089 document. Here's an example from yesterday for case number A-14114-63601.

    I hope that helps.
    Last edited by Spectator; 10-03-2014 at 08:43 AM.
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  14. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by Spectator View Post
    Light@EOT,

    If the case is certified and the data is available, you can go to the DOL LCR site.

    Choose Case Type PERM and enter your ETA case number. Make sure the Start Date Range covers your case. Choose search and the case will come up. On the right hand side is a link to the redacted ETA 9089 document. Here's an example from yesterday for case number A-14114-63601.

    I hope that helps.

    I believe this system only gives records after some date in 2009. I know I couldn't get mine from 2008.

  15. #15
    I hope it is an indication of demand generation sometime in near future. Beginning of FY2015 is definitely ruled out as he has already predicted retrogression to early 2005. Also, as gurus here have calculated before, there are almost 28k applications between May 2009 and May 2010 including porters. It is unlikely there will be any demand generation this fiscal year.

    Another point might be that he is talking in general about other categories. For example, EB2 China advances every year till last quarter after which it stops till the beginning of next fiscal year. He maybe pointing to such scenarios.



    Quote Originally Posted by skpanda View Post
    Official confirmation that inventory buildup will happen early in the FY.

    EB2-I inventory buildup should happen either Oct-Nov-Dec 2015 (Best Case) or Oct-Nov-Dec 2016 (Optimistic) or Oct-Nov-Dec 2017 (Worst Case).

    On a more general level, Mr. Oppenheim shared that his goal is to advance the cutoff dates more at the beginning of the fiscal year (October, November and December, and January visa bulletins) and then, as he is able to gauge demand for a particular preference category, adjust accordingly by either slowing down or retrogressing (if demand is high) or advancing even more (is demand turns out to be low).

  16. #16
    Quote Originally Posted by CleanSock View Post
    I hope it is an indication of demand generation sometime in near future. Beginning of FY2015 is definitely ruled out as he has already predicted retrogression to early 2005. Also, as gurus here have calculated before, there are almost 28k applications between May 2009 and May 2010 including porters. It is unlikely there will be any demand generation this fiscal year.

    Another point might be that he is talking in general about other categories. For example, EB2 China advances every year till last quarter after which it stops till the beginning of next fiscal year. He maybe pointing to such scenarios.
    I think he is reiterating what he said last year, using the exact same language.

    Without this approach, EB2-I would retrogress in October, since only 252 visas would otherwise be available.

    As it impacts inventory build up this year, it suggests that the EB3-WW COD may be advanced rapidly towards Current earlier rather than later, within the constraints of visa availability in Q1 for preadjudicated cases.

    As we have seen previously, there is a danger with this approach if the demand generated greatly outstrips the available supply of visas for the year and if the COD is left at too late a date for too long. This isn't likely to be a problem for EB3-WW, but it will be a consideration when EB2-I turn comes.
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  17. #17
    I cannot believe how exact the language is! Maybe cilawgroup used the same text as last year with minor modifications based on what he said. I am not sure how strong the prediction of demand generation is as the same thing was said last year but demand generation did not happen (at least not in EB2I).

    Quote Originally Posted by Spectator View Post
    I think he is reiterating what he said last year, using the exact same language.

    Without this approach, EB2-I would retrogress in October, since only 252 visas would otherwise be available.

    As it impacts inventory build up this year, it suggests that the EB3-WW COD may be advanced rapidly towards Current earlier rather than later, within the constraints of visa availability in Q1 for preadjudicated cases.

    As we have seen previously, there is a danger with this approach if the demand generated greatly outstrips the available supply of visas for the year and if the COD is left at too late a date for too long. This isn't likely to be a problem for EB3-WW, but it will be a consideration when EB2-I turn comes.

  18. #18
    CleanSock,

    TBH, that is what I think as well. No other article about the meeting has mentioned all the points in the CIL article and it is just too much a duplicate of the 2013 post for my liking. It felt like deja vu when I read the new article.
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  19. #19
    I don't know how other people feel, but (apart from EB1C), it seems to have been a rather underwhelming start to FY2015, judging by Trackitt.
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  20. #20
    Quote Originally Posted by Spectator View Post
    I don't know how other people feel, but (apart from EB1C), it seems to have been a rather underwhelming start to FY2015, judging by Trackitt.
    What do you mean spec?
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  21. #21
    Quote Originally Posted by Spectator View Post
    I don't know how other people feel, but (apart from EB1C), it seems to have been a rather underwhelming start to FY2015, judging by Trackitt.
    Spec, I assumed it was on par. My rationale is that on Oct 1 USCIS will start asking for visas from DOS. There has to be a few days delay in those processes, right?

  22. #22
    I'm not worried about it.

    I had a look back at October 2013.

    USCIS were rather faster off the mark. By the end of the third day there were 58 EB2-I approvals alone on Trackitt. Probably not quite that many, since some were only updated a little later.

    Currently, there are 11 approvals for EB2-I this year.

    If not already allocated on October 1 as CO said he did in his DD comments last year, the visas would be immediately available if requested. That is instant and the approval could be made immediately. Perhaps some are going for supervisory review.

    The breakdown on Trackitt at the moment is

    EB1A ------ 1
    EB1B ------ 0
    EB1C ----- 10
    EB2-I ---- 11
    EB2-ROW --- 1
    EB3-I ----- 1
    EB3-ROW --- 1

    Total ---- 25

    That compares to 91 last year.

    EB3-WW have been waiting for the COD to advance for months.

    I was just hoping for a slightly faster start to the year, more akin to last year. Maybe I was just being over optimistic. The approval pace does need to pick up if the plan is to to use the EB2-I yearly allocation in October.
    Last edited by Spectator; 10-03-2014 at 05:51 PM.
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  23. #23
    Quote Originally Posted by skpanda View Post
    Official confirmation that inventory buildup will happen early in the FY.

    EB2-I inventory buildup should happen either Oct-Nov-Dec 2015 (Best Case) or Oct-Nov-Dec 2016 (Optimistic) or Oct-Nov-Dec 2017 (Worst Case).

    On a more general level, Mr. Oppenheim shared that his goal is to advance the cutoff dates more at the beginning of the fiscal year (October, November and December, and January visa bulletins) and then, as he is able to gauge demand for a particular preference category, adjust accordingly by either slowing down or retrogressing (if demand is high) or advancing even more (is demand turns out to be low).
    sorry to sound ignorant, but what does the below mean

    "EB2-I inventory buildup should happen either Oct-Nov-Dec 2015 (Best Case) or Oct-Nov-Dec 2016 (Optimistic) or Oct-Nov-Dec 2017 (Worst Case)."

  24. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by ambrosia View Post
    sorry to sound ignorant, but what does the below mean

    "EB2-I inventory buildup should happen either Oct-Nov-Dec 2015 (Best Case) or Oct-Nov-Dec 2016 (Optimistic) or Oct-Nov-Dec 2017 (Worst Case)."
    No such as a dumb question on this forum! Even gurus who have "seen it all" find new things and situations on here every day. Such is the immigration system. Now to answer your question.

    first some definitions:
    Demand - approved cases that are waiting for a visa number to be assigned.
    Inventory - all cases in a category (approved and in process). Demand is a subset of Inventory.

    Inventory of EB2I applications for processing has peaks and valleys. Inventory buildup is the "phenomenon" where CO moves the cut off dates way in to the future to have as many people apply as possible (to get to the peak) followed by a major retrogression. USCIS then processes these cases based on subsequent CODs.

    CO sets CODs based on his visibility in to pending Inventory (and Demand) of cases to be processed. If he does not feel there is sufficient inventory and demand in the system, that is the trigger to do a "build up".

    Last time this happened was Q42011/Q12012 where the dates moved till May 2010. USCIS is still processing the inventory from then. That is why the gurus on here rely on Inventory data quite a bit for calculations. That long with the Demand Data give a pretty good picture of whats left in the hopper for EB2I as well as potential spillover from other categories.

    Obviously the dates in that statement are expected timeframes for when this could happen.

    Hope that helps.
    Last edited by vizcard; 10-03-2014 at 09:03 PM.

  25. #25
    Guru imdeng's Avatar
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    So no hope of an EB1C slowdown as yet. Last year's high number consumption by EB1C seems like becoming a regular feature - and if that happens then we are likely not going to see any vertical spillover from EB1.
    Quote Originally Posted by Spectator View Post
    I don't know how other people feel, but (apart from EB1C), it seems to have been a rather underwhelming start to FY2015, judging by Trackitt.
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