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Thread: EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations)

  1. #1051
    Quote Originally Posted by YTeleven View Post
    Nice explanation from CO on the VB acceptance dates :
    https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B0Z...kT2M3anA4/view
    Here is the VB reform story:

    We need to understand 3 things here:
    • The old & new VB cut-off dates (Everyone knows these, no confusion here)
    • DOS' Qualifying dates, which are the previously unpublished dates internal to DOS. (Not many people know about these dates as they are internal to DOS)
    • The new VB acceptance date (Everyone is trying to understand what is this now and going forward)


    Application Final Action Dates (Visa Cut-off Dates):

    • The Application Final Action Dates were called cut-off dates in prior Visa Bulletins.
    • The Application Final Action Dates indicate which priority dates are current for the purpose of issuing immigrant visas and approving applications for adjustment of status filed with USCIS in a particular month consistent with the cut-off dates in prior Visa Bulletins.


    DOS or State's Qualifying dates and State's policy on these dates:

    • State's Qualifying dates are the previously unpublished dates which the Visa Office of the Department of State uses to determine when to send the Instruction Package to an immigrant visa applicant. The Instruction Package tells the applicant what documents need to be prepared for the immigrant visa application.
    • State establishes qualifying dates based on estimates of where the cut-off dates are likely to be in the next 8 to 12 months. These estimates allow State to efficiently process immigrant visa cases worldwide to ensure maximum usage of visa numbers, which by statute are numerically limited.
    • Qualifying dates are established in relation to cut-off dates, which are calculated based on the best information available at the time from both State Department and DHS sources. Infrequently, the information underlying the estimates of cut-off dates turns out to be incorrect;
    • Historically, when State has retrogressed (VB) cut -off dates due to the (non) availability of visas, as a matter of policy, it has not retrogressed the corresponding (State's) qualifying dates.
    • State has not previously retrogressed qualifying dates, as there was no purpose served in doing so, even when the (VB) cut-off dates failed to advance at the anticipated pace or they retrogressed because of higher-than-expected demand.
    • neither DHS nor any other agency utilized State's qualifying dates.



    Dates for Filing Visa Applications (Acceptance Dates):

    • Dates for Filing Visa Applications that were published in the September 9,2015 Visa Bulletin were the qualifying dates State had developed for internal purposes, consistent with past practice.
    • Accordingly, the Dates for Filing Applications in the September 9, 2015 October 2015 Visa Bulletin, including the India and China Employment-Based Second preference (EB-2) dates, were qualifying dates that were established - based upon cut-off dates that have since retrogressed, but the corresponding qualifying dates had not been retrogressed, per State's policy.



    Here is what happened in the background:

    • As part of the President's efforts to modernize the immigrant visa system, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) requested that the Department of State (State) include in its monthly Visa Bulletin State's "qualifying dates". DHS explained to State that publishing its qualifying dates would allow DHS to use these dates at least some months to accept applications for adjustment of status. This change would also assist State by providing better control and consistency in determination of the monthly cut-off dates for IVs by providing much needed visibility of applicant demand so that state may maximize visa number use under the various annual limits.
    • On September 9,2015, State published the Visa Bulletin for October 2015 and included both the "Application Final Action Dates" and the "Dates for Filing Visa Applications".
    • Following the publication of the October 2015 Visa Bulletin on September 9, 2015, DHS requested State republish the Bulletin for October with all Dates for Filing Visa Applications retrogressed to where State anticipates the Final Action Date likely to be in 8 to 12 months. Due to the lack of retrogression of qualifying dates, DHS had determined that the dates in the Dates for Filing Visa Application charts for some preference categories did not accurately reflect visa availability for DHS's purposes of accepting adjustment applications consistent with section 245 of the Immigration and Nationality Act (INA), 8 U.S.C. 1255.
    • After consultations with DHS, State published a revised Visa Bulletin for October 2015 on September 25, 2015 in which State retrogressed certain dates in the "Dates for Filing Visa Applications" chart. The "Dates for Filing Visa Application" in the revised Bulletin are where state estimated the Final Action Dates to likely be for each category in the next 8 to 12 months. This resulted in 6 of the categories of the Dates for Filing Visa Applications being changed from the September 9 version of the Bulletin, namely Mexico Family-Sponsored First Preference, Mexico Family-Sponsored Third Preference, China EB-2, India EB-2, Philippines EB-3, and Philippines Other Workers.



    From above all what I could conclude is if your PD is under VB cut-off dates then you should be getting your GC in current month and if your PD is under VB acceptance-date then you should be getting your GC in 8 to 12 months timeframe.
    And the acceptance dates are estimated dates based on information available to DOS at that time. This means these dates move forward as the State gets more accurate info available and also based on the spillover available.

    As for as AOS applicants are considered, the only benefit they get from this VB reform is filing the AOS applications in advance of 8 to 12 months and can expect GC in that timeframe if the DOS estimations are accurate.
    Last edited by YTeleven; 10-03-2015 at 04:18 PM.

  2. #1052
    Need Visa demand data from Jan-March 2012. Can someone provide it ?

    This is in reference to the Visagat#2015

  3. #1053

    Thumbs up

    Quote Originally Posted by Toeny9 View Post
    Need Visa demand data from Jan-March 2012. Can someone provide it ?

    This is in reference to the Visagat#2015
    PLEASE CONTRIBUTE FOR VISA GATE 2015 FOR GREG

    https://crowddefend.com/campaign/visagate2015/#

  4. #1054
    PLEASE CONTRIBUTE FOR VISA GATE 2015 FOR GREG

    https://crowddefend.com/campaign/visagate2015/#

  5. #1055
    Quote Originally Posted by YTeleven View Post
    Here is the VB reform story:

    We need to understand 3 things here:
    • The old & new VB cut-off dates (Everyone knows these, no confusion here)
    • DOS' Qualifying dates, which are the previously unpublished dates internal to DOS. (Not many people know about these dates as they are internal to DOS)
    • The new VB acceptance date (Everyone is trying to understand what is this now and going forward)


    Application Final Action Dates (Visa Cut-off Dates):

    • The Application Final Action Dates were called cut-off dates in prior Visa Bulletins.
    • The Application Final Action Dates indicate which priority dates are current for the purpose of issuing immigrant visas and approving applications for adjustment of status filed with USCIS in a particular month consistent with the cut-off dates in prior Visa Bulletins.


    DOS or State's Qualifying dates and State's policy on these dates:

    • State's Qualifying dates are the previously unpublished dates which the Visa Office of the Department of State uses to determine when to send the Instruction Package to an immigrant visa applicant. The Instruction Package tells the applicant what documents need to be prepared for the immigrant visa application.
    • State establishes qualifying dates based on estimates of where the cut-off dates are likely to be in the next 8 to 12 months. These estimates allow State to efficiently process immigrant visa cases worldwide to ensure maximum usage of visa numbers, which by statute are numerically limited.
    • Qualifying dates are established in relation to cut-off dates, which are calculated based on the best information available at the time from both State Department and DHS sources. Infrequently, the information underlying the estimates of cut-off dates turns out to be incorrect;
    • Historically, when State has retrogressed (VB) cut -off dates due to the (non) availability of visas, as a matter of policy, it has not retrogressed the corresponding (State's) qualifying dates.
    • State has not previously retrogressed qualifying dates, as there was no purpose served in doing so, even when the (VB) cut-off dates failed to advance at the anticipated pace or they retrogressed because of higher-than-expected demand.
    • neither DHS nor any other agency utilized State's qualifying dates.



    Dates for Filing Visa Applications (Acceptance Dates):

    • Dates for Filing Visa Applications that were published in the September 9,2015 Visa Bulletin were the qualifying dates State had developed for internal purposes, consistent with past practice.
    • Accordingly, the Dates for Filing Applications in the September 9, 2015 October 2015 Visa Bulletin, including the India and China Employment-Based Second preference (EB-2) dates, were qualifying dates that were established - based upon cut-off dates that have since retrogressed, but the corresponding qualifying dates had not been retrogressed, per State's policy.



    Here is what happened in the background:

    • As part of the President's efforts to modernize the immigrant visa system, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) requested that the Department of State (State) include in its monthly Visa Bulletin State's "qualifying dates". DHS explained to State that publishing its qualifying dates would allow DHS to use these dates at least some months to accept applications for adjustment of status. This change would also assist State by providing better control and consistency in determination of the monthly cut-off dates for IVs by providing much needed visibility of applicant demand so that state may maximize visa number use under the various annual limits.
    • On September 9,2015, State published the Visa Bulletin for October 2015 and included both the "Application Final Action Dates" and the "Dates for Filing Visa Applications".
    • Following the publication of the October 2015 Visa Bulletin on September 9, 2015, DHS requested State republish the Bulletin for October with all Dates for Filing Visa Applications retrogressed to where State anticipates the Final Action Date likely to be in 8 to 12 months. Due to the lack of retrogression of qualifying dates, DHS had determined that the dates in the Dates for Filing Visa Application charts for some preference categories did not accurately reflect visa availability for DHS's purposes of accepting adjustment applications consistent with section 245 of the Immigration and Nationality Act (INA), 8 U.S.C. 1255.
    • After consultations with DHS, State published a revised Visa Bulletin for October 2015 on September 25, 2015 in which State retrogressed certain dates in the "Dates for Filing Visa Applications" chart. The "Dates for Filing Visa Application" in the revised Bulletin are where state estimated the Final Action Dates to likely be for each category in the next 8 to 12 months. This resulted in 6 of the categories of the Dates for Filing Visa Applications being changed from the September 9 version of the Bulletin, namely Mexico Family-Sponsored First Preference, Mexico Family-Sponsored Third Preference, China EB-2, India EB-2, Philippines EB-3, and Philippines Other Workers.



    From above all what I could conclude is if your PD is under VB cut-off dates then you should be getting your GC in current month and if your PD is under VB acceptance-date then you should be getting your GC in 8 to 12 months timeframe.
    And the acceptance dates are estimated dates based on information available to DOS at that time. This means these dates move forward as the State gets more accurate info available and also based on the spillover available.

    As for as AOS applicants are considered, the only benefit they get from this VB reform is filing the AOS applications in advance of 8 to 12 months and can expect GC in that timeframe if the DOS estimations are accurate.
    Thanks YTEleven for your nice explanation. You gave me lot of hope.
    Last edited by Suva2001; 10-03-2015 at 10:31 PM.

  6. #1056
    Just posting the link here. Can you guys spread the word regrading funding Greg and his team through crowd funding? I donated $200 and if required, will donate more. Request those to donate who are affected by this and also let friends and families know. We are really doing well on the funding aspect and have already crossed 50% mark so please chip in with whatever you can. Thanks.

    https://crowddefend.com/campaign/visagate2015/

    PS: Please remove this post once funding is completed.

  7. #1057
    Hey guys - while you fund the immigration lawsuit - also consider this hero from Oregon - Cris Mintz. This hero took 7 bullets while he tried to save his fellow students from the gunman at a Oregon school last week. Luckily he is alive.

    https://www.gofundme.com/s75ge9y4

    Also - those in S Carolina - stay dry and stay safe.
    The purpose of this site is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better. Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
    Please follow the Forum Rules and Guidelines as you participate or view the forum contents. | Forum Glossary

  8. #1058
    Thanks Q for this info, donated to this cause as well.

  9. #1059
    @Jhonty & everyone affected

    Followed up with our local congress men office....informed me they are planning for passing bipartisan bill this week before thursday ( Let us wait and watch ...) she also mentioned that they came to know about the Lawsuit and she mentioned she along with other congressmen Immigration secretaries are working on it...she can give update by end of this week....i again re-iterated the trouble we have to go through because of this visa bulletin change, wished that congressman and his colleagues put pressure on DHS , USCIS & DOL.


    So please all of you, call your congressmen and senators, if possible meet there immigration reps in local office and give details of your story( i did this early last week)......if many of us do this it will definitely have an effect

  10. #1060
    bipartisan bill in current congress is a big joke... that too on immigration

    Quote Originally Posted by mesan123 View Post
    @Jhonty & everyone affected

    Followed up with our local congress men office....informed me they are planning for passing bipartisan bill this week before thursday ( Let us wait and watch ...) she also mentioned that they came to know about the Lawsuit and she mentioned she along with other congressmen Immigration secretaries are working on it...she can give update by end of this week....i again re-iterated the trouble we have to go through because of this visa bulletin change, wished that congressman and his colleagues put pressure on DHS , USCIS & DOL.


    So please all of you, call your congressmen and senators, if possible meet there immigration reps in local office and give details of your story( i did this early last week)......if many of us do this it will definitely have an effect

  11. #1061
    Quote Originally Posted by tatikonda View Post
    bipartisan bill in current congress is a big joke... that too on immigration

    Anyway i didnot ask for update on Any bills she mentioned it to me....so just posting the msg i heard

  12. #1062

  13. #1063
    Quote Originally Posted by Raj0687 View Post
    Basically CO is saying he just followed DHS directions. Probably he will follow our directions too :-)
    Last edited by gcq; 10-06-2015 at 06:06 AM.

  14. #1064
    Guru imdeng's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2011
    Location
    Ann Arbor MI
    Posts
    1,022
    Well said Mesan. We all have to use all tools available to build pressure - it takes only 15 mins to make the call to the local Congressperson's office. I have done so myself and would encourage others to do so as well.

    Quote Originally Posted by mesan123 View Post
    @Jhonty & everyone affected

    Followed up with our local congress men office....informed me they are planning for passing bipartisan bill this week before thursday ( Let us wait and watch ...) she also mentioned that they came to know about the Lawsuit and she mentioned she along with other congressmen Immigration secretaries are working on it...she can give update by end of this week....i again re-iterated the trouble we have to go through because of this visa bulletin change, wished that congressman and his colleagues put pressure on DHS , USCIS & DOL.


    So please all of you, call your congressmen and senators, if possible meet there immigration reps in local office and give details of your story( i did this early last week)......if many of us do this it will definitely have an effect
    EB2I NSC | PD: 08/07/2009 | Forum Glossary

  15. #1065
    Wow CO has difficult time doing his job.

    How can it be so difficult for someone who is doing that job for 30 years and miss calculation? The year 2011 is kind of a closed year, all I-140 are approved by now, and there is no influx. He is not calculating the demand for year 2015 or 2014 to miss calculate.

    We don't have to be a Spec or Q to understand the numbers crunch, in layman terms look at 2009 or 2010 demand, there are about 1200 applicants on avg per month and the new demand for 14 months would be around 1200*14 = 17K, it's that simple.

    The biggest joke is, he want the court to ignore his mistake, so that when he continues doing mistakes in future, nobody can to question.

  16. #1066
    Quote Originally Posted by Raj0687 View Post
    Wow CO has difficult time doing his job.

    How can it be so difficult for someone who is doing that job for 30 years and miss calculation? The year 2011 is kind of a closed year, all I-140 are approved by now, and there is no influx. He is not calculating the demand for year 2015 or 2014 to miss calculate.

    We don't have to be a Spec or Q to understand the numbers crunch, in layman terms look at 2009 or 2010 demand, there are about 1200 applicants on avg per month and the new demand for 14 months would be around 1200*14 = 17K, it's that simple.

    The biggest joke is, he want the court to ignore his mistake, so that when he continues doing mistakes in future, nobody can to question.
    And why should he take advise from anyone ( DHS ) without a supporting argument ? There is something fishy behind this. He says, DHS asked him to do so and he did without a question !

  17. #1067
    Quote Originally Posted by gcq View Post
    And why should he take advise from anyone ( DHS ) without a supporting argument ? There is something fishy behind this. He says, DHS asked him to do so and he did without a question !
    This should be modernization of immigration and not predictive analysis. This should have been focussed on all candidates whose I-140 got approved so they can get their EADs with AP. The whole thing has changed by helping candidates who will get GC in next 8-10 months.

    Also the dates went back to July 2009. How many people are going to take advantage in EB2 India? Most of the candidates with PD May 2010 already got their EAD last time.

  18. #1068
    Quote Originally Posted by richie.rich View Post
    This should have been focussed on all candidates whose I-140 got approved so they can get their EADs with AP. The whole thing has changed by helping candidates who will get GC in next 8-10 months.
    Precisely! Well said.
    Last edited by qesehmk; 10-06-2015 at 12:35 PM.
    The purpose of this site is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better. Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
    Please follow the Forum Rules and Guidelines as you participate or view the forum contents. | Forum Glossary

  19. #1069
    Quote Originally Posted by richie.rich View Post
    This should be modernization of immigration and not predictive analysis. This should have been focussed on all candidates whose I-140 got approved so they can get their EADs with AP. The whole thing has changed by helping candidates who will get GC in next 8-10 months.

    Also the dates went back to July 2009. How many people are going to take advantage in EB2 India? Most of the candidates with PD May 2010 already got their EAD last time.
    this is the part that confuses me most. since EO came out , there has been no clear indication if it was all 140 approved or sub-section of it. if it is latter, then all decision makers get to draw line in sand without challenge. in all likely hood, USCIS interpreted this as better planning/execution exercise as opposed to "immigrant friendly" policy.

    ps - i know this is just rant as opposed to value add to discussion :-(

  20. #1070
    Quote Originally Posted by dec2010 View Post
    this is the part that confuses me most. since EO came out , there has been no clear indication if it was all 140 approved or sub-section of it. if it is latter, then all decision makers get to draw line in sand without challenge. in all likely hood, USCIS interpreted this as better planning/execution exercise as opposed to "immigrant friendly" policy.

    ps - i know this is just rant as opposed to value add to discussion :-(
    The whole idea on modernization is to make sure, people waiting in que can change their jobs and travel to and fro their home countries till they get their GC in next few years. What is the use of giving EAD to people who will get GC in next 8-10 months. Anyways, they will wait to get their GC because they will not risk leaving country to visit their families.

  21. #1071
    richie.rich , there has been no official communication re 485 for 140. until Oct VB came out http://www.reginfo.gov/public/do/eAg...&RIN=1615-AC05 this was the basis to say certain (NOT ALL) population. i have not seen any uscis/gov document that states all 140 approved. ( i could be wrong / may have missed certain updates)

    based on this, i find it difficult to say what was included in modernization plan. the frustration ( myself included) is stemming from perceived changes.

  22. #1072
    From Oct Visa Bulletin. Did we have any comments on this topic earlier?

    D. SCHEDULED EXPIRATION OF TWO EMPLOYMENT VISA
    CATEGORIES.

    Employment Fourth Preference Certain Religious Workers (SR): Pursuant to Section 3 of Public Law 112-176, the non-minister special immigrant program expires on September 30, 2015. No SR visas may be issued overseas, or final action taken on adjustment of status cases, after September 30, 2015. Visas issued prior to this date will only be issued with a validity date of September 30, 2015, and all individuals seeking admission as a non-minister special immigrant must be admitted (repeat, admitted) into the U.S. no later than midnight September 30, 2015..

    Employment Fifth Preference Categories (I5 and R5): Section 1 of Public Law 112-176 extended this immigrant investor pilot program through September 30, 2015. The I5 and R5 visas may be issued until close of business on September 30, 2015, and may be issued for the full validity period. No I5 or R5 visas may be issued overseas, or final action taken on adjustment of status cases, after September 30, 2015..

    The cut-off dates for the categories mentioned above have been listed as "Unavailable" for October. Congress is currently considering an extension of the SR, I5 and R5 visa categories, but there is no certainty when such legislative action may occur. If there is legislative action extending one or both of these categories for FY-2016, those cut-off dates would immediately become "Current" for October for all countries except China-mainland born I5 and R5 categories which would be subject to an October 8, 2013 cut-off date..

  23. #1073
    Not sure about EB4 but EB5 has been extended till December 11th.

    http://www.murthy.com/2015/09/30/new...hrough-dec-11/



    Quote Originally Posted by Kanmani View Post
    From Oct Visa Bulletin. Did we have any comments on this topic earlier?

    D. SCHEDULED EXPIRATION OF TWO EMPLOYMENT VISA
    CATEGORIES.

    Employment Fourth Preference Certain Religious Workers (SR): Pursuant to Section 3 of Public Law 112-176, the non-minister special immigrant program expires on September 30, 2015. No SR visas may be issued overseas, or final action taken on adjustment of status cases, after September 30, 2015. Visas issued prior to this date will only be issued with a validity date of September 30, 2015, and all individuals seeking admission as a non-minister special immigrant must be admitted (repeat, admitted) into the U.S. no later than midnight September 30, 2015..

    Employment Fifth Preference Categories (I5 and R5): Section 1 of Public Law 112-176 extended this immigrant investor pilot program through September 30, 2015. The I5 and R5 visas may be issued until close of business on September 30, 2015, and may be issued for the full validity period. No I5 or R5 visas may be issued overseas, or final action taken on adjustment of status cases, after September 30, 2015..

    The cut-off dates for the categories mentioned above have been listed as "Unavailable" for October. Congress is currently considering an extension of the SR, I5 and R5 visa categories, but there is no certainty when such legislative action may occur. If there is legislative action extending one or both of these categories for FY-2016, those cut-off dates would immediately become "Current" for October for all countries except China-mainland born I5 and R5 categories which would be subject to an October 8, 2013 cut-off date..

  24. #1074
    Yoda
    Join Date
    May 2011
    Location
    Florida
    Posts
    304
    Guyz.. on the lawsuit front: There is lot of speculation going w.r.t crowdefend, govt response etc.

    We had a conference call today with our lawyers. Although due to litigation policies, I am not allowed to disclose the points discussed in the conference call, I wanted to assure friends over here that there is nothing to worry.

    We are happy to be where we are right now. We are channeling all our efforts and focus in the right direction. We are hoping for the best!

  25. #1075
    Yoda
    Join Date
    May 2011
    Location
    Florida
    Posts
    304
    Also, I have contacted my local Senator's office. They have been very patient to hear me out. One of the Senator's office has asked me and others who are affected to visit their local office tomorrow in person so they can help us further. Good luck to all of us!!

    Keep calling your senators and reps guyz. It takes few minutes. Its not like India etc, where we dread to contact government office. You will feel good and satisfied that you have done your part!

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