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Thread: EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations)

  1. #51
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    I don't think EB3 visas can go waste in future. It will happen similar to what happened with EB2-C where people downgraded to EB-3. There will be lot more cases in EB-2 than EB-3, very few apply in EB-3 these days.
    Even some employers who are applying in EB-3 now to prolong the stay of the employee with the company will then file in EB-2.

  2. #52
    Quote Originally Posted by imdeng View Post
    This is perhaps too early to worry about it - but we might reach a situation in couple of years when EB3 demand will be less than its quota. Unfortunately, the current law does not provide for any vertical spillover FROM EB3. What will happen to those spare visas if and when we do have spare visas in EB3 category?

    Ideally, they should flow up to EB1 - just like EB4 and EB5 spare visas. However, it is my understanding (IIRC Spec posted this some time back) that the current law does not provide for that.
    All wasted EB visas --> FB.

    We were the beneficiaries of this the last couple of years. If there was a feedback loop within FB in a similar manner, several retrogressed FB categories would have used those 28K visas that instead went to us.

    If visas are wasted in EB3, they will unfortunately go to FB. But I think this won't happen due to the number of pending EB3I cases in the next 2-3 years.

  3. #53
    Folks Nov VB is out and retrogression is back (15-FEB-05).
    http://travel.state.gov/content/visa...mber-2014.html

  4. #54
    Q,Gurus,

    Does Gc dream over for me in 2014?
    EB2I TSC | PD: 06/16/2008

  5. #55
    Quote Originally Posted by helooo View Post
    Q,Gurus,

    Does Gc dream over for me in 2014?
    Oh I am sorry ... as far as 2014 is concerned you still have 20 days to go. So you may still get it. So work hard. Followup with USCIS. Harrass them.
    The purpose of this site is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better. Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
    Please follow the Forum Rules and Guidelines as you participate or view the forum contents. | Forum Glossary

  6. #56
    When can we expect Oct '14 inventory? My PD is July 2009 and yet to file I-485. I'm hoping I can file it in FY '15 at least.

  7. #57
    This is very disappointing to me, I was hoping this year dates would move to second half of 2009, so DOS will moved dates beyond 01-May-2010 in FY'15 to build inventory, so at least we can file I-485 next year. Looks like I have to wait another 2-3 yrs. at least to get EAD or AC21 eligibility. It is very frustrating, I was more conservative as with most post on this forum, but I was little optimistic , when even most conservative Attorney firms stating the date may advance (July/Sept 2010) during 2012.
    But the date moved till 01-May-2010, lucky most of people were able to apply I-485 and eligible for AC21.
    I am working with Top networking company , with each year layoff, the career/work/life became miserable. To switch other employer, I have to restart the whole GC process PERM & I-140, with delays in PERM processing, my situation may be falling from pan to fire .

    But looks like the more consumption of EB2ROW, no spill over from EB1/EB5 or FB putting dark picture for next year.

    I am following this forum last 3-4 yrs, 2-3 times a week, mostly silent viewer.

    Thanks you all for your projections and calculations. Sometimes I feel, these numbers are too conservative, but they more are less inline with Reality.

    Just want vent my frustration… so I feel relived for this moment .. re focus on my work .

  8. #58
    Quote Originally Posted by jimmys View Post
    When can we expect Oct '14 inventory? My PD is July 2009 and yet to file I-485. I'm hoping I can file it in FY '15 at least.
    It's usually published around early/mid November.
    Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.

  9. #59

    Question

    I found this in murthy weekly bulletin..

    The DOS reports that, for fiscal year 2014 (FY14), approximately 15,000 to 17,000 "extra" numbers were made available to EB2 India. The amount of such excess numbers potentially available towards the end of FY15 depends upon usage and demand levels in the other categories during the fiscal year.

    Does this mean 15 to 17k spill available for next year FY15. Confusing statement though.

  10. #60
    Quote Originally Posted by Raj0687 View Post
    I found this in murthy weekly bulletin..

    The DOS reports that, for fiscal year 2014 (FY14), approximately 15,000 to 17,000 "extra" numbers were made available to EB2 India. The amount of such excess numbers potentially available towards the end of FY15 depends upon usage and demand levels in the other categories during the fiscal year.

    Does this mean 15 to 17k spill available for next year FY15. Confusing statement though.
    I'm not sure how that is confusing.

    It is saying that:

    a) 15-17k SO was available to EB2-I in FY2014 (last year) and that;

    b) the amount of SO that will be available to EB2-I in FY2015 (this year) will depend entirely on how many visas other Categories and Countries use in FY2015.

    It's not making any statement about how much SO might be available in FY2015.

    Reading between the lines, given the comments about other Categories and Countries in the article, you might deduce that the amount of SO in FY2015 is expected to be less than was available in FY2014.
    Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.

  11. #61
    Quote Originally Posted by Spectator View Post

    b) the amount of SO that will be available to EB2-I in FY2015 (this year) will depend entirely on how many visas other Categories and Countries use in FY2015.

    It's not making any statement about how much SO might be available in FY2015.

    Reading between the lines, given the comments about other Categories and Countries in the article, you might deduce that the amount of SO in FY2015 is expected to be less than was available in FY2014.

    That's really scary. The combination of left overs prior to May 1, 2009 and less spillover in FY`15.

  12. #62
    Hello Gurus,
    I am pretty much new to the number crunching analysis but have been checking the posts by Spec, Q and all other experts reg EB2 India PD movement.
    I guess what I would like to know (even though we just start 2015 fiscal yr) is what's the worst case scenario and best case scenario for EB2 India PD movement?

    Thank you

  13. #63
    Quote Originally Posted by eb2sep09I View Post
    Hello Gurus,
    I am pretty much new to the number crunching analysis but have been checking the posts by Spec, Q and all other experts reg EB2 India PD movement.
    I guess what I would like to know (even though we just start 2015 fiscal yr) is what's the worst case scenario and best case scenario for EB2 India PD movement?

    Thank you
    eb2sep09I,

    Welcome to the forum.

    My initial thoughts are on page 1 of this thread.

    Currently, I see no reason to change them. It's likely to be a very difficult year for EB2-I.
    Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.

  14. #64
    Oct 2014 approvals update from trackitt:

    Total: 38
    TSC - 19
    NSC - 19

  15. #65
    Quote Originally Posted by sportsfan33 View Post
    Oct 2014 approvals update from trackitt:

    Total: 38
    TSC - 19
    NSC - 19
    Or you can look here for the figures based on those who have updated their Trackitt profile.
    Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.

  16. #66
    I am posting here but moderators please feel free to move it. I filed for renewal for ead ap combo in October online. I have been doing this for the last 6 yrs but for the first time I have got a biometrics notice for this time's renewal. I had done my biometrics in 2007 when the dates had opened up. Just curious to know what is going on, is this normal or does it indicate something wrong? I am eb3 2007 India so no such thing as getting current in the near future and hence the question. Thanks

  17. #67
    Guru
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    Quote Originally Posted by anuprab View Post
    I am posting here but moderators please feel free to move it. I filed for renewal for ead ap combo in October online. I have been doing this for the last 6 yrs but for the first time I have got a biometrics notice for this time's renewal. I had done my biometrics in 2007 when the dates had opened up. Just curious to know what is going on, is this normal or does it indicate something wrong? I am eb3 2007 India so no such thing as getting current in the near future and hence the question. Thanks
    I don't think anything is wrong but I'd definitely call USCIS and ask. You pretty much have to get it done as it very well could have expired.

  18. #68
    Gurus, Senseis and Other Senior Members,

    I have been a frequent reader of your posts but I have not posted much. I did see the new VB and read up on all your opinions and calculations. General consensus is, EB2I is facing more headwinds, even from the tail side thus leading to what amounts to be a sh*tty year. I'm sure this is not the first time in recent history that this has happened. So, do bad years generally lead to better ones or do things go from bad to worse and then worst before changing course? Long story short: Can we expect ANYTHING positive in the next FY (FY 2016) for EB2I? If so, (And I know this is asking you to be Nostradamus) what do you see happening? I will take anything I can get with more than just a grain of salt

    Some days the wait doesn't seem so bad. Then there are those days when you wanna smack BO and the morons on the hill up the head for the lack of rational actions and more importantly: balls..

  19. #69
    Quote Originally Posted by Shadowfax4 View Post
    Gurus, Senseis and Other Senior Members,

    I have been a frequent reader of your posts but I have not posted much. I did see the new VB and read up on all your opinions and calculations. General consensus is, EB2I is facing more headwinds, even from the tail side thus leading to what amounts to be a sh*tty year. I'm sure this is not the first time in recent history that this has happened. So, do bad years generally lead to better ones or do things go from bad to worse and then worst before changing course? Long story short: Can we expect ANYTHING positive in the next FY (FY 2016) for EB2I? If so, (And I know this is asking you to be Nostradamus) what do you see happening? I will take anything I can get with more than just a grain of salt

    Some days the wait doesn't seem so bad. Then there are those days when you wanna smack BO and the morons on the hill up the head for the lack of rational actions and more importantly: balls..
    I agree with you totally. For me it seems like I have been pedaling a bike which is stationary for the last 10 yrs. Everything is on hold in the name of the elusive gc!. I hope things don't turn out to be bad for EB2 India and some miracle happens eg EO or more than expected spillover. since nothing is in our hands I am keeping the faith and hoping something good comes out of all the waiting!

  20. #70
    Quote Originally Posted by Shadowfax4 View Post
    Gurus, Senseis and Other Senior Members,

    I have been a frequent reader of your posts but I have not posted much. I did see the new VB and read up on all your opinions and calculations. General consensus is, EB2I is facing more headwinds, even from the tail side thus leading to what amounts to be a sh*tty year. I'm sure this is not the first time in recent history that this has happened. So, do bad years generally lead to better ones or do things go from bad to worse and then worst before changing course? Long story short: Can we expect ANYTHING positive in the next FY (FY 2016) for EB2I? If so, (And I know this is asking you to be Nostradamus) what do you see happening? I will take anything I can get with more than just a grain of salt

    Some days the wait doesn't seem so bad. Then there are those days when you wanna smack BO and the morons on the hill up the head for the lack of rational actions and more importantly: balls..
    Let us recap how EB2I escaped the last 4 years:

    2011: Heavy EB2-ROW but amazing spillover from EB1 (almost 16K that year) + almost 7.5K spillover from EB5
    2012: Demand cliff. EB2-I received 6K more than it should have.
    2013: EB1 and EB2-ROW almost running full, but tremendous FB spillover and some spillover from EB4/5.
    2014: EB1 and EB5 almost running full but quite a bit from FB and amazing spillover from EB2-ROW due to PERM slowdowns.

    Heading forward:
    EB5 is certainly off the table.
    EB1 demand seems to be increasing year over year.
    EB4 is also off the table.
    FB spillover is possibly not there.
    EB2-ROW is the only hope. The headwind is heavy PERMs in Q3/4 this year. Tailwind is increased PERM slowdown.

    I don't know what to expect this coming year and going forward. It seems a lot of demand from India is shifting to EB1 (I reserve my temptation to use choice words to describe this phenomenon). Other traditionally spillover yielding categories seem to be gobbling up all numbers. However we don't know if it's going to continue in the long or even short term.

    Another phenomenon is that with EB3-ROW fast advance, it's possible EB3I may get some spillover numbers and that may reduce porting drastically.

    Conclusion: 2015 looks dicey but I won't rule out brighter prospects 2016 onwards.

    P.S. The number of approvals in October is alarmingly low. That does not bode well for 2015 as of now.

    Edit: EB2I received approximately the following over the last 4 years:
    2011: 23K
    2012: 17K
    2013: 19K
    2014: 19-21K (estimated)

    So last 4 years, 80K visas have been given out in this category! Minus 12K regular quota, that's a pure spillover of 68K. The spillover is also remarkably similar and it's almost the same in 2 year windows 2011-12 and 2013-14.

    Over the last 2 years, pure spillover was almost 34K. 20K of that came from FB and more than 10K came because of PERM slowdowns. You can clearly see that without these two sources, EB2I would be a Titanic by now. EB1/4/5 yielded hardly 5K spillover over the last 2 years by all accounts. These categories are already operating at the edge and are just a small changed dynamic away from retrogression. In EB1, EB1CI will eventually retrogress if left unchecked. EB5 is going to be retrogressed now (confirmed) because of China. I don't know much about EB4 but CO made a specific comment saying that even EB4 was going to see increased demand and possible retrogression.

    Unfortunately, if all factors converge together, EB2I will remain retrogressed over the entire FY 2015. That's the worst case scenario. This scenario was actually feared back in early 2013 before Spec came up with the FB spillover news. That was followed by Ted Cruz doing us an indirect favor by shutting down the government and affecting the PERMs in a grand fashion. These two sources have driven the EB2I locomotive the last 2 years.

    Let's hope and pray that EB2I has at least positive movement in FY 2015.
    Last edited by sportsfan33; 10-14-2014 at 08:06 PM.

  21. #71
    Guru imdeng's Avatar
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    Excellent post Sports. Thank you for taking the time to document past few years so well.
    EB2I NSC | PD: 08/07/2009 | Forum Glossary

  22. #72
    Quote Originally Posted by sportsfan33 View Post
    Let us recap how EB2I escaped the last 4 years:

    2011: Heavy EB2-ROW but amazing spillover from EB1 (almost 16K that year) + almost 7.5K spillover from EB5
    2012: Demand cliff. EB2-I received 6K more than it should have.
    2013: EB1 and EB2-ROW almost running full, but tremendous FB spillover and some spillover from EB4/5.
    2014: EB1 and EB5 almost running full but quite a bit from FB and amazing spillover from EB2-ROW due to PERM slowdowns.

    Heading forward:
    EB5 is certainly off the table.
    EB1 demand seems to be increasing year over year.
    EB4 is also off the table.
    FB spillover is possibly not there.
    EB2-ROW is the only hope. The headwind is heavy PERMs in Q3/4 this year. Tailwind is increased PERM slowdown.

    I don't know what to expect this coming year and going forward. It seems a lot of demand from India is shifting to EB1 (I reserve my temptation to use choice words to describe this phenomenon). Other traditionally spillover yielding categories seem to be gobbling up all numbers. However we don't know if it's going to continue in the long or even short term.

    Another phenomenon is that with EB3-ROW fast advance, it's possible EB3I may get some spillover numbers and that may reduce porting drastically.

    Conclusion: 2015 looks dicey but I won't rule out brighter prospects 2016 onwards.

    P.S. The number of approvals in October is alarmingly low. That does not bode well for 2015 as of now.

    Edit: EB2I received approximately the following over the last 4 years:
    2011: 23K
    2012: 17K
    2013: 19K
    2014: 19-21K (estimated)

    So last 4 years, 80K visas have been given out in this category! Minus 12K regular quota, that's a pure spillover of 68K. The spillover is also remarkably similar and it's almost the same in 2 year windows 2011-12 and 2013-14.

    Over the last 2 years, pure spillover was almost 34K. 20K of that came from FB and more than 10K came because of PERM slowdowns. You can clearly see that without these two sources, EB2I would be a Titanic by now. EB1/4/5 yielded hardly 5K spillover over the last 2 years by all accounts. These categories are already operating at the edge and are just a small changed dynamic away from retrogression. In EB1, EB1CI will eventually retrogress if left unchecked. EB5 is going to be retrogressed now (confirmed) because of China. I don't know much about EB4 but CO made a specific comment saying that even EB4 was going to see increased demand and possible retrogression.Unfortunately, if all factors converge together, EB2I will remain retrogressed over the entire FY 2015. That's the worst case scenario. This scenario was actually feared back in early 2013 before Spec came up with the FB spillover news. That was followed by Ted Cruz doing us an indirect favor by shutting down the government and affecting the PERMs in a grand fashion. These two sources have driven the EB2I locomotive the last 2 years.

    Let's hope and pray that EB2I has at least positive movement in FY 2015.
    Sportsfan,

    Kudos on the great post and for the explanation! We are literally 2 weeks into FY2015 and I've given up hopes for this year. I was looking for insights into FY2016, but when FY2015 by itself is a crap shoot, I don't think it's fair to expect predictions from anybody this early! On the flip side, PERM has continually been slow since the Cruz-down of last year even though the economy has picked up marginally. Wishing for that to continue is the same as wishing ill upon your own brethren because hey! they're waiting in line just like we did. But we have little to no choice in this issue. Hope The President can step up and do something for the legal immigrants this year/early next.

  23. #73
    It seems like I wake up every day with one or other nightmare and feel I am never going to get greened. I have a question and need help from experts. MY husband's perm was filed with location as NYC. His office changed to a different address but still in NYC. Will this require a new PERM to be filed again ?

  24. #74
    Quote Originally Posted by anuprab View Post
    It seems like I wake up every day with one or other nightmare and feel I am never going to get greened. I have a question and need help from experts. MY husband's perm was filed with location as NYC. His office changed to a different address but still in NYC. Will this require a new PERM to be filed again ?
    It all depends on if the new address falls under the same Metropolitan Statistical Area. Even if the new address is 15-20 miles away, sometimes it would fall into another MSA which needs a new PERM to be filed.
    This is not my knowledge but that's what I have been told by Fragomen recently as I bumped into the same issue.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York_metropolitan_area

  25. #75
    Quote Originally Posted by EB2IndSep09 View Post
    It all depends on if the new address falls under the same Metropolitan Statistical Area. Even if the new address is 15-20 miles away, sometimes it would fall into another MSA which needs a new PERM to be filed.
    This is not my knowledge but that's what I have been told by Fragomen recently as I bumped into the same issue.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York_metropolitan_area
    Thanks I hope we don't have to do it again. It just moved from Broadway in NYC to SoHo NYC.

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