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Thread: EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations)

  1. #26
    Quote Originally Posted by vizcard View Post
    No such as a dumb question on this forum! Even gurus who have "seen it all" find new things and situations on here every day. Such is the immigration system. Now to answer your question.

    first some definitions:
    Demand - approved cases that are waiting for a visa number to be assigned.
    Inventory - all cases in a category (approved and in process). Demand is a subset of Inventory.

    Inventory of EB2I applications for processing has peaks and valleys. Inventory buildup is the "phenomenon" where CO moves the cut off dates way in to the future to have as many people apply as possible (to get to the peak) followed by a major retrogression. USCIS then processes these cases based on subsequent CODs.

    CO sets CODs based on his visibility in to pending Inventory (and Demand) of cases to be processed. If he does not feel there is sufficient inventory and demand in the system, that is the trigger to do a "build up".

    Last time this happened was Q42011/Q12012 where the dates moved till May 2010. USCIS is still processing the inventory from then. That is why the gurus on here rely on Inventory data quite a bit for calculations. That long with the Demand Data give a pretty good picture of whats left in the hopper for EB2I as well as potential spillover from other categories.

    Obviously the dates in that statement are expected timeframes for when this could happen.

    Hope that helps.
    Thank you much for the detailed explanation.

  2. #27
    Trackitt update (EB2I approvals starting October 2013):

    Oct 2013 - Nov 2013: 665
    TSC - 398
    NSC - 262
    Other - 5

    Dec 2013 - June 2014: 49
    TSC - 32
    NSC - 17
    Other - 0

    July 2014 - Sept 2014: 1375
    TSC - 858
    NSC - 495
    Other - 22

    Total FY 2014: 2089
    TSC - 1288 (62%)
    NSC - 774 (37%)
    Other - 27 (1%)

    Current FY 2015:

    Total: 22
    TSC - 9
    NSC - 13

    Trackitt data shows that the EB2I approval factor is no longer 13, but has reduced substantially in the range of 8-10. More people have started tracking their cases. Also, so far in October, there are not many approvals yet. Some of the longstanding pending cases with RDs in 2012 continue to be unapproved.

    Finally, looking across all 3 different time slices from FY 2014, TSC has about 60% cases and NSC has about 40%. This proportion is remarkably constant in all times.
    Last edited by sportsfan33; 10-08-2014 at 07:59 AM.

  3. #28
    Guru imdeng's Avatar
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    Any thoughts on the VB that should land in a couple days? I am thinking EB2I retrogress to irrelevance considering that not many approvals are happening lately - so they might be done with any slack. EB2C doing its usual 1 month per VB march. EB3ROW moves between 6 month to 1 year.

    I am looking forward just to see what happens on EB3ROW front.
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  4. #29

    Visa Bulletin Predictions for Coming Months

    Courtesy of Murthy http://www.murthy.com/2014/10/08/vis...coming-months/

    Visa Bulletin Predictions for Coming Months

    October 8, 2014

    On October 1, 2014, the Chief of the Immigrant Visa Control and Reporting Division, U.S. Department of State (DOS), Charles Oppenheim, provided explanations and predictions related to employment-based categories for visa bulletin developments expected during the next few months of fiscal year 2015 (FY15). This information was provided at a recent meeting of the American Immigration Lawyers Association, attended by several Murthy Law Firm attorneys.

    Employment-Based, Second Preference (EB2) Worldwide

    The EB2 category for worldwide, or rest of the world (ROW), is expected to remain current. The projections provided by the DOS only addressed the next three to four months; however, this category historically has remained current.

    The DOS continues to observe the results of "upgrading" within the EB2 ROW category by individuals with older priority dates initially granted in the employment-based, third preference (EB3) category. The DOS reports usage of 1,500 to 2,000 visa numbers per month in EB2 ROW from such upgrade cases. While this is not enough of a demand to require a cutoff date, it impacts the availability of excess visa numbers in this category, which would otherwise be made available to EB2 cases from the oversubscribed countries, India and China.

    EB2 India

    The DOS expects to retrogress the EB2 India category in either November or December. The retrogression is expected to go as far back as early 2005. Once such retrogression occurs, the DOS expects that the EB2 India cutoff date will not advance until approximately June 2015. This is because, even with such extreme retrogression, the DOS expects to continue to see high demand in this category. Even when the cutoff dates retrogressed last year to a 2004 date, the DOS still used approximately 3,000 EB2 visa numbers. This is due to demand from EB3 "upgrade" cases from Indian nationals with earlier priority dates.

    The end of the fiscal year is when visa numbers from other categories, which would otherwise not be utilized, can be made available to this category. This is why advancement in June 2015 may be possible. The DOS reports that, for fiscal year 2014 (FY14), approximately 15,000 to 17,000 "extra" numbers were made available to EB2 India. The amount of such excess numbers potentially available towards the end of FY15 depends upon usage and demand levels in the other categories during the fiscal year.

    EB2 China

    Over the next three to four months, the EB2 China category is expected to advance by approximately three to five weeks each month. This prediction could change, as the demand depends upon the volume of "upgrade" cases from EB3. If the demand increases, the advancement of the EB2 date will slow.

    EB3 ROW

    The EB3 ROW category has been advancing rapidly in recent months. The reason for this, as explained by Chief Oppenheim, is that the pending demand for visa numbers in this category has been met. The DOS has been able to provide immigrant visa numbers for these pending I-485 adjustment of status cases, filed in the summer of 2007 (when all the categories were current.) With the completion of the 2007 cases, the DOS needed to create greater demand for immigrant visa numbers in the EB3 ROW category. This can be achieved by advancing the cutoff date until such demand materializes. The DOS expects to continue the forward movement of the EB3 ROW cutoff date in upcoming months.

    EB3 China

    China's EB3 cutoff date is also quite favorable, although it is no longer more favorable than the EB2 China cutoff date, as had been the case previously. Chief Oppenheim expects to be able to continue moving this category forward rapidly in the next few months.

    EB3 India

    Unfortunately, as expected, the situation for EB3 India is quite different. This category is extremely backlogged with the DOS reporting 25,000 to 30,000 pending immigrant visa requests in the EB3 India queue. This is primarily because of the I-485 filings made in 2007. (This does not include all the EB3 India cases that have not yet made it to the I-485 stage.) As a result of this extraordinarily high demand, the cutoff date in this category is expected to advance by only one to two weeks per month over the next several months.

    Employment-Based, Fourth Preference (EB4)

    The EB4 category is for "special immigrants," and includes the category of Special Immigrant Juveniles, as well as religious workers. This category is experiencing increased demand. As a result, the DOS expects to establish a cutoff date for EB4 toward the end of FY15 or possibly even fiscal year 2016.

    Employment-Based, Fifth Preference (EB5)

    The demand for EB5 during FY14 was sufficient for this category to hit its limit of 10,000 for the first time. The majority of the demand within the EB5, immigrant investor category, is from Chinese nationals.
    Last edited by Spectator; 10-08-2014 at 02:49 PM.
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  5. #30
    Quote Originally Posted by Spectator View Post
    anything new/disappointing in this apart from what we already know I am curious...

  6. #31
    Some takaways from the above (assuming it is reported correctly.

    The DOS reports that, for fiscal year 2014 (FY14), approximately 15,000 to 17,000 "extra" numbers were made available to EB2 India.
    That would be 18-20k with the initial allocation of 3k.

    Even when the cutoff dates retrogressed last year to a 2004 date, the DOS still used approximately 3,000 EB2 visa numbers. This is due to demand from EB3 "upgrade" cases from Indian nationals with earlier priority dates.
    Quite a lot for such an early COD.

    The DOS reports usage of 1,500 to 2,000 visa numbers per month in EB2 ROW from such upgrade cases.
    That seems an awfully high number and isn't supported by the approvals seen. That would be 18-24k porting cases alone. Perhaps his definition of what is an "upgrade" is different.

    The EB4 category is for "special immigrants," and includes the category of Special Immigrant Juveniles, as well as religious workers. This category is experiencing increased demand. As a result, the DOS expects to establish a cutoff date for EB4 toward the end of FY15 or possibly even fiscal year 2016.
    That would be worrying.

    No mention of EB1. That might just be Murthy, or he chose not to talk about it.
    Last edited by Spectator; 10-08-2014 at 02:45 PM.
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  7. #32
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    If EB2-I received 15k-17k spillover then I think we should see around 20k-22k in the upcoming pending inventory.

    July inventory had 31k for EB2-I and this was published in the later half of July, so assuming some spillover had been applied until 7/21 (2000) then we should have 29k.
    Taking out another 13k-15k until the end of FY14, we are left with 16k-18k in the inventory.

    Add to this people who filed for first time and those who ported, 3k-4k during the date movement, the total pending inventory is around 19k-21k.
    Of course if some of the spillover was applied in the beginning of the FY14 then the pending number will be higher.

    Considering we have strong headwinds in FY15 for EB2-I as predicted by gurus here, even if we get around 10k visas (SO+ standard allocation), that will take us to end of 2009 by Sep 2015.

    We can also expect inventory buildup around Oct/Nov 2015.

  8. #33
    Quote Originally Posted by bikenlalan View Post
    If EB2-I received 15k-17k spillover then I think we should see around 20k-22k in the upcoming pending inventory.

    July inventory had 31k for EB2-I and this was published in the later half of July, so assuming some spillover had been applied until 7/21 (2000) then we should have 29k.
    Taking out another 13k-15k until the end of FY14, we are left with 16k-18k in the inventory.

    Add to this people who filed for first time and those who ported, 3k-4k during the date movement, the total pending inventory is around 19k-21k.
    Of course if some of the spillover was applied in the beginning of the FY14 then the pending number will be higher.

    Considering we have strong headwinds in FY15 for EB2-I as predicted by gurus here, even if we get around 10k visas (SO+ standard allocation), that will take us to end of 2009 by Sep 2015.

    We can also expect inventory buildup around Oct/Nov 2015.
    why should there be inventory buildup when are some 19-20k pending in the pipeline...

  9. #34
    I think the inventory buildup will take place if the pending inventory falls below 10k because historically EB2I has been getting at least 10k spillover visas every year. So, if they have more than 10K in their pipeline then they have less chances of wasting visas that year.


    Quote Originally Posted by anuprab View Post
    why should there be inventory buildup when are some 19-20k pending in the pipeline...

  10. #35
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    Quote Originally Posted by anuprab View Post
    why should there be inventory buildup when are some 19-20k pending in the pipeline...
    By end of next FY, EB2-I should have around 10k pending (+or-) 2k. Although there will be new filers and porters, the demand for that reaches the state dept around 4 months after the date of file.
    In order to prevent any wastage of visas for FY16, VO should move the dates to generate demand and get the cases pre-adjudicated as historically EB2-I has received around 12-15k visas on average.
    By how much the dates move is anybody's guess.

  11. #36

    Retrogression Vs "U"

    So if dates are retrogressed to sometime in 2005, does that mean there will be some visas that are available and anyone before that artificial date is eligible for it? Why cannot they make it "U" instead? How is this date in 2005 set? Any insights??

  12. #37
    my unnderstanding is that U means no visas are available at all.

    Retro means - visas are available for people prior to the retro'd date.
    Quote Originally Posted by vyruss View Post
    So if dates are retrogressed to sometime in 2005, does that mean there will be some visas that are available and anyone before that artificial date is eligible for it? Why cannot they make it "U" instead? How is this date in 2005 set? Any insights??
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  13. #38
    Quote Originally Posted by bikenlalan View Post
    By end of next FY, EB2-I should have around 10k pending (+or-) 2k. Although there will be new filers and porters, the demand for that reaches the state dept around 4 months after the date of file.
    In order to prevent any wastage of visas for FY16, VO should move the dates to generate demand and get the cases pre-adjudicated as historically EB2-I has received around 12-15k visas on average.
    By how much the dates move is anybody's guess.
    thanks for the explanation. I hope that happens as I missed the boat by 3 days with a pd of 05/3/2010. for me any movement is good!

  14. #39
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    Quote Originally Posted by vyruss View Post
    So if dates are retrogressed to sometime in 2005, does that mean there will be some visas that are available and anyone before that artificial date is eligible for it? Why cannot they make it "U" instead? How is this date in 2005 set? Any insights??
    They cannot make it "U" at the beginning of the FY, EB2-I gets fresh allocation of 2800 visas, out of which they issue around 200 per month.
    As there are sufficient cases prior to sometime in 2005 and to limit the level of porting, they have to retrogress.
    Last edited by bikenlalan; 10-09-2014 at 10:57 AM.

  15. #40

    must read

    Looks like it will be tough to get anymore spillover from EB1 & EB5 in future. Read this : LINK

  16. #41
    I am not sure how much to believe this guy. According to the article he is a 'leading U.S immigration attorney who publishes immigration articles' and till now he didn't know about quota in employment based category?
    I understand that general American public can have no clue about legal immigration but it is surprising that an immigration attorney didn't know much about it.



    Quote Originally Posted by YTeleven View Post
    Looks like it will be tough to get anymore spillover from EB1 & EB5 in future. Read this : LINK

  17. #42
    Quote Originally Posted by CleanSock View Post
    I am not sure how much to believe this guy. According to the article he is a 'leading U.S immigration attorney who publishes immigration articles' and till now he didn't know about quota in employment based category?
    I understand that general American public can have no clue about legal immigration but it is surprising that an immigration attorney didn't know much about it.
    I don't think he implied that he didn't know about quota. He was alluding to how it may or may not include spouses and kids. That's how I understood it.

  18. #43
    Quote Originally Posted by gcpursuit View Post
    I don't think he implied that he didn't know about quota. He was alluding to how it may or may not include spouses and kids. That's how I understood it.
    TRUE.
    What he was saying is that there is no where in the law that dependents should count against the EB quota number: 140,000.
    He is also refering to this letter which was sent to President by US law professors : https://pennstatelaw.psu.edu/_file/L...sor-Letter.pdf

    Overall I see there is a positive and negative news in that article and the positive news is that Obama has a easy task to fix this broken immigration with a small EO and the negative news is that EB2-India will nomore get any spillover from EB1 or EB5 in future.

  19. #44
    Quote Originally Posted by YTeleven View Post
    TRUE.
    What he was saying is that there is no where in the law that dependents should count against the EB quota number: 140,000.
    INA 245(b) appears to require AOS dependents to count against the preference allocation, since each individual (whether primary or dependent) must currently file a separate I-485. Employment Based applications come under 203(b).

    (b) Upon the approval of an application for adjustment made under subsection (a), the Attorney General shall record the alien's lawful admission for permanent residence as of the date the order of the Attorney General approving the application for the adjustment of status is made, and the Secretary of State shall reduce by one the number of the preference visas authorized to be issued under sections 202 and 203 within the class to which the alien is chargeable for the fiscal year then current.
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  20. #45

  21. #46
    The November VB has been released.

    EB2-I retrogresses to a COD of 15FEB05.

    D. INDIA EMPLOYMENT SECOND PREFERENCE

    Increased demand in the INDIA Employment-based Second preference category has required the retrogression of this cut-off date to hold number use within the fiscal year 2015 annual limit.

    E. VISA AVAILABILITY IN THE COMING MONTHS

    FAMILY-sponsored categories (potential monthly movement)

    Worldwide dates:

    F1: Two to three weeks
    F2A: Three to five weeks
    F2B: Six to eight weeks
    F3: One to three weeks
    F4: Two or four weeks

    EMPLOYMENT-based categories (potential monthly movement)

    Employment First: Current

    Employment Second:

    Worldwide: Current
    China: Three to five weeks
    India: No forward movement

    Employment Third:

    Worldwide: Continued rapid forward movement for the next several months. After such rapid advance of the cut-off date applicant demand for number use, particularly for adjustment of status cases, is expected to increase significantly. Once such demand begins to materialize at a greater rate it will impact this cut-off date situation.

    China: Rapid forward movement. Such movement is likely to result in increased demand which may require "corrective" action possibly as early as February.

    India: Little if any movement
    Mexico: Will remain at the worldwide date
    Philippines: Will remain at the worldwide date. Increased demand may require "corrective" action at some point later in the fiscal year.

    Employment Fourth: Current

    Employment Fifth: Current


    The above projections for the Family and Employment categories indicate what is likely to happen during each of the next three months based on current applicant demand patterns. Readers should never assume that recent trends in cut-off date movements are guaranteed for the future, or that "corrective" action will not be required at some point in an effort to maintain number use within the applicable annual limits. The determination of the actual monthly cut-off dates is subject to fluctuations in applicant demand and a number of other variables.
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  22. #47
    It is interesting and unfortunate to see that CO retrogressed EB2I based on 8 days of data - if that. As I have said earlier - this is going to be a real bad year for EB2I. So people shouldn't expect any miracles.

    ROW on the other hand is cruising ahead and the story that YTeleven put forth the other day confirmed - why. Just like EB3IC even EB3ROW is seeing heavy porting.

    So as one can see now EB3 as a category is disappearing and most of hte demand is shifting to EB2. Funnily - the reason why demand is shifting to EB2 itself is disappearing. All the extra visas that used to come to EB2 from EB1 and EB5 - are going to dry up - at least this year. That's why I am calling it a bad year.

    I just hope I am terribly wrong and one of many things happen - i.e.
    1. Suddenly FB spillover is available
    2. ROW demand drops.
    3. Or better yet Executive Order on family members comes in.

    The 3rd one will truly transform EB category. Brace for a tough year friends. My apologies for the tough forecast.
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  23. #48
    Guru imdeng's Avatar
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    Hmm... things seem as per expected. No surprises. Winter hibernation begins with the retrogression.

    EB3ROW moved by 8 months. That's encouraging. They will cross the high water mark next VB at this speed. Then new inventory, and then Current - and then horizontial spillover to EB3I - How exciting! Something to look forward to in this FY beyond all the gloom and doom coming up everyday.
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  24. #49
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    Q - the current and expected rapid movement in EB3ROW will surely cut down EB3ROW to EB2ROW porting. There may have been significant porting there until last year - but its clear now that it is only a matter of months before EB3ROW waiting vanishes away. So there is no incentive for any new porting from EB3ROW to EB2ROW especially considering the PERM situation.

    I would consider the EB3 situation a tailwind. Low porting to EB2ROW and once some horizontal spillover reaches EB3I later this FY, then low porting to EB2I as well.
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  25. #50
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    This is perhaps too early to worry about it - but we might reach a situation in couple of years when EB3 demand will be less than its quota. Unfortunately, the current law does not provide for any vertical spillover FROM EB3. What will happen to those spare visas if and when we do have spare visas in EB3 category?

    Ideally, they should flow up to EB1 - just like EB4 and EB5 spare visas. However, it is my understanding (IIRC Spec posted this some time back) that the current law does not provide for that.
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